DEPENDENT AND

INDEPENDENT
PROBABILITY
OBJECTIVES:
1.Solves problems involving
probability (M10SP-IIIi-j-1)
SUBTASKS:
1. Illustrates the probability of a union of
two events (Independent and dependent)
2. Illustrates conditional probability
3. Finds the probability of AUB
4. Solve problems involving probability
What is the probability of drawing two
even numbers,
1. if the first chip drawn is an even number
and the chip is returned after the first
draw?
2. if the first chip is an even number and
the chip was not returned.
What is the probability of getting a
red and black ball,
1. if the first ball is returned?
2. if the first ball was not put back to
the bottle.
What is the probability of getting
a Queen and King if
a. the first card was returned
after it was recorded?
B. The card was not returned?
What is the probability of getting
a 2 and 6 when a die is rolled?
What is the probability of getting 3 heads when a
coin is flipped 3 times?
 01
INDEPENDENT
EVENTS
Thursdays to practice math
 INDEPENDENT EVENTS

If the occurrence of one event

DOES NOT affect the probability
of a second event occurring.
 A coin is tossed and a die is
rolled. What is the probability of
the coin landing on tails and
rolling a 3?
THURSDAY - MATH PROBLEMS

A coin is tossed and a die is rolled. What is the

probability of the coin landing on tails and
rolling a 3?
P(tails and 3) = P(tails) x P(3)
=
=
 HAVE A TRY!

There are 8 action, 3 comedy, and 5 drama

DVDs on a shelf. Suppose three DVDs are
selected at random from the shelf. Find P(3
action), with replacement
 02
DEPENDENT
EVENTS
 Dependent events

If the occurrence of one event

DOES affect the probability of a
second event occurring.
Example

Drawing a card from a deck of

cards and NOT putting it back, and
then drawing a second card.
To find the probability of dependent
events, you can use conditional
probability P(B|A), the probability
of event B, given that event A has
occurred.
To calculate the probability of two dependent events
occurring, do the following:
1. Calculate the probability of the first event.
2. Calculate the probability that the second event would
occur if the first event had already occurred.
3. Multiply the probabilities.
A bag contains 12 red, 9 blue, 11 yellow, and 8
green marbles. If two marbles are drawn at random
and not replaced, what is the probability that a red
and then a blue marble are drawn?
12 3 ← 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒓𝒆𝒅 𝒎𝒂𝒓𝒃𝒍𝒆𝒔
𝑃 ( 𝑟𝑒𝑑 ) = =
40 10 ← 𝒕𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒎𝒂𝒓𝒃𝒍𝒆𝒔

9 3 ←𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒃𝒍𝒖𝒆 𝒎𝒂𝒓𝒃𝒍𝒆𝒔

𝑃 ( 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒|𝑟𝑒𝑑 )= = ← 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒎𝒂𝒓𝒃𝒍𝒆𝒔 𝒓𝒆𝒎𝒂𝒊𝒏𝒊𝒏𝒈
39 13
HAVE A TRY!

There are 8 action, 3 comedy, and 5

drama DVDs on a shelf. Suppose
three DVDs are selected at random
from the shelf. Find P(2 action, then a
comedy), without replacement
 Example 4: Determining Whether Events Are
Independent or Dependent

Two cards are drawn from a deck of 52.

Determine whether the events are
independent or dependent. Find the
probability.
 Example 4 Continued

A. selecting two hearts

when the first card is
replaced
 Example 4 Continued

B. selecting two hearts

when the first card is not
replaced
 Example 4 Continued

C. a queen is drawn, is not

replaced, and then a
king is drawn
 Check It Out! Example 5

A bag contains 10 beads—2 black, 3

white, and 5 red. A bead is selected at
random. Determine whether the
events are independent or dependent.
Find the indicated probability.
 Check It Out! Example 5 Continued

a. selecting a white bead, replacing

it, and then selecting a red bead
 Check It Out! Example 5 Continued

b. selecting a white bead, not replacing

it, and then selecting a red bead
 Check It Out! Example 5 Continued

c. selecting 3 non-red
beads without replacement
CHECK YOUR UNDERSTANDING!
Lesson Quiz: Part I
1. Find the probability of rolling a number greater
than 2 and then rolling a multiple of 3 when a
number cube is rolled twice.
2. A drawer contains 8 blue socks, 8 black socks, and
4 white socks. Socks are picked at random.
Explain why the events picking a blue sock and
then another blue sock are dependent. Then find
the probability.
 Lesson Quiz: Part II

3. Two cards are drawn from a deck of 52. Determine

whether the events are independent or dependent.
Find the indicated probability.
A. selecting two face cards when the first card is
replaced
B. selecting two face cards when the first card is not
replaced
 03
CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

If A and B are dependent events, then the

conditional probability of event B occurring,
given that event A has already occurred, is
Example:

At a restaurant, 25% of customers order chili. If 4% of

costumers order chili and a baked potato, find the
probability that someone who orders chili also orders
baked potato.

𝑃 ( 𝑏𝑎𝑘𝑒𝑑 𝑝𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑜|𝑐h𝑖𝑙𝑖 )=𝑃 ¿¿

0.04
¿ The probability that someone who
0.25 orders chili also orders a baked
¿ 0.16 potato is 16%
Two-way frequency table
-is often used to show observed or relative
frequencies of data from an experiment classified
according to two variables, with rows indicating one
variable and the columns indicating the order. These
table can be used to find conditional probability.
A drug company conducted an experiment to determine the
effectiveness of a certain new drug. Test subjects were randomly
assigned to one of two groups: a treatment group, which received
the drug, or a control group, which received a placebo instead of
the drug. The contingency table below shows the result.

Group Condition Condition

Improves (Y) does NOT
Improve (N)
Treatment (T) 1600 400
Control (C) 1200 800
Find the probability that a test subject was in the control
given that his or her condition did not improve.
Group Condition Condition does TOTAL
Improves (Y) NOT Improve (N) S
Treatment (T) 1600 400 2000
Control (C) 1200 800 2000
Totals 2800 1200 4000

𝑷 (𝑵 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑪) The probability that a test subject was in the

𝑷 ( 𝑪| 𝑵 )=
𝑷 ( 𝑵) control group given that his or her condition
𝟎.𝟐 did not improve is about 0.667 or 66.7%
¿ =𝟎 . 𝟔𝟔𝟕
𝟎.𝟑
Find the probability that a test subject’s
condition improved given that he or she was
in the treatment group.
Group Condition Condition does TOTAL
Improves (Y) NOT Improve (N) S
Treatment (T) 1600 400 2000
Control (C) 1200 800 2000
Totals 2800 1200 4000
1600

=0.8
𝑃 (𝑇 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑌 ) 4000 0.4
( | )
𝑃 𝑌 𝑇 = = =
𝑃 (𝑇 ) 2000 0.5
4000
1. What is the probability that a chosen student plays basketball
given that he is a male?
2. What is the probability that a chosen student is male given that
he plays football?
3. What is the probability that she is a female given that she plays
baseball?
4. What is the probability that she plays football given that she is a
female?
Summative Test