11 Analysis & Approaches SL

Unit 7 – Statistics & Probability

7.6 Conditional Probability & Tree
Diagrams (Ch. 8.4)
OBJECTIVES: STUDENTS WILL BE ABLE TO
1) FIND PROBABILITIES OF EVENTS USING RULES OF PROBABILITY,
2) FIND CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES,
3) DIFFERENTIATE DEPENDENT & INDEPENDENT EVENTS, AND
4) USE TREE DIAGRAMS TO FIND PROBABILITIES.
Independent Events

Two events A and B are independent if knowing that one of them

occurs does not change the probability that the other occurs.
Example 1
A box contains 7 red and 3 green balls. Two balls are drawn one
after another from the box without replacement. Determine the
probability that:

a) Both are red

b) The first is green and the second one is red

c) A green and a red are obtained

Example 2
According to the American Red Cross, the distribution of blood
types in the U.S. population is 45% Type O, 40% Type A, 11% Type B,
and 4% Type AB. Why is blood type independent? If two people
are chosen at random, find the probability that

a) Both have Type O

b) Neither has Type A

c) Both have the same blood type

Example 3
Three events, 𝐴, 𝐵 and 𝐶 are such that 𝐴 and 𝐵 are mutually exclusive
and 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.2, 𝑃(𝐶) = 0.3, 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 0.4 and 𝑃(𝐵 ∪ 𝐶) = 0.34.

a) Calculate 𝑃(𝐵) and 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶).

b) Determine whether 𝐵 and 𝐶 are independent.

Example 4
At Pascal High School, 54% of the students are girls and 62% of the
students play sports. Half of the girls at the school play sports.

What percentage of the students who play sports are boys?

Example 5
In an experiment to study the phenomenon of color blindness,
researchers collected information concerning 1000 people in a small
town and categorized them according to color blindness and
gender. Here is a summary of the findings:

What is the probability that a person is color-blind given that the

person is a woman?
What is Conditional Probability?
When we are trying to find the probability that one event will
happen under the condition that some other event is already
known to have occurred, we are trying to determine a conditional
probability.

The probability that one event happens given that another event is already
known to have happened is called a conditional probability.

Suppose we know that event B has happened. Then the probability that event A
happens given that event B has happened is denoted by P(A | B).

Read | as “given
that” or “under the
condition that”
Calculating Conditional Probabilities
To find the conditional probability P(A | B), use the formula

P(A Ç B)
P(A | B) =
P(B)
Independence
Two events are independent if and only if either
𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 × 𝑃 𝐵 ,
or
𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴).

It also follows that for independent events,

𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 = 𝑷(𝑩)
𝑃(𝐴|𝐵′) = 𝑷(𝑨)
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴′) = 𝑷(𝑩)
Example: AUA, a national airline, is known for its punctuality. The probability
that a regularly scheduled flight departs on time is 𝑷 𝑫 = 𝟎. 𝟖𝟑, the
probability that it arrives on time is 𝑷(𝑨) = 𝟎. 𝟗𝟐, and the probability that it
arrives and departs on time is 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑫) = 𝟎. 𝟕𝟖. Find the probability that a
flight
a) arrives on time given that it departed on time.
𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑫) 𝟎. 𝟕𝟖
𝑷 𝑨𝑫 = = ≈ 0.939759 ≈ 0.940
𝑷(𝑫) 𝟎. 𝟖𝟑
b) departs on time given that it arrived on time.
𝑷(𝑫 ∩ 𝑨 ) 𝟎. 𝟕𝟖
𝑷 𝑫𝑨 = = ≈ 0.847826 ≈ 0.848
𝑷(𝑨) 𝟎. 𝟗𝟐
Example: 60% of the students at a university are male and 40% are female.
Records show that 30% of the males have IB diplomas, while 75% of the
females have IB diplomas. A student is selected and found to have an IB
diploma. What is the probability that the student is female?
𝑷 𝑭 ∩ 𝑰𝑩
P(F|IB diploma) = = 0.625
𝑷 𝑰𝑩
Example: As of the year 2009, the probability of an adult in United States having HIV/AIDS was
0.006 (Source: 2010 CIA World Fact book). The ELISA test is used to detect the virus antibody in
blood. If the antibody is present, the test reports positive with probability 0.997 and negative
with probability 0.003. If the antibody is not present, the test reports
positive with probability 0.015 and negative with probability 0.985.

a) Draw a tree diagram to represent this situation.

b) Use the Multiplication Principle to fill in the probabilities at the ends
of the four branches. Check to see that they add up to 1.
c) Find the probability of a positive test result.

𝑷 𝐏 ∩ + ∪ 𝑷 𝐏′ ∩ + =

𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟓𝟗𝟖𝟐 + 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏𝟒𝟗𝟏 =
𝟎. 𝟎𝟐𝟎𝟖𝟗𝟐
d) Find the probability that a person with a positive test result actually
has that antibody (Determine P(antibody present|positive)).
𝑷 𝐏∩+ 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟓𝟗𝟖𝟐
𝑷 𝐏| + = = = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟖𝟔
𝑷 + 𝟎. 𝟎𝟐𝟎𝟖𝟗𝟐
Example: Jane and Kate frequently play tennis with each other. When Jane serves
first, she wins 60% of the time, and the same pattern occurs with Kate. They
alternate the serve of course. They usually play for a prize, which is a chocolate
bar. The first one who loses on her serve will have to buy the chocolate. Jane
serves first.

a) Find the probability that Jane pays on her second serve.

P ( Jane pays ) = 0.6  0.6  0.4

= 0.144
b) Find the probability that Jane eventually pays for the chocolate.

P ( Jane pays ) = P ( JL or JWKWJL or JWKWJWKWJL or...)

= 0.4 + ( 0.6  0.6  0.4 ) + ( 0.6  0.6  0.6  0.6  0.4 ) + ...
= 0.4 + 0.4 ( 0.6 ) + 0.4 ( 0.6 ) + ...
2 4

a1 0.4
Infinite Geometric Series: S = = = 0.625
1 − r 1 − ( 0.6 ) 2
Example: Jane and Kate frequently play tennis with each other. When Jane serves
first, she wins 60% of the time, and the same pattern occurs with Kate. They
alternate the serve of course. They usually play for a prize, which is a chocolate
bar. The first one who loses on her serve will have to buy the chocolate. Jane
serves first.
c) Find the probability that Kate pays for the chocolate.

P(Kate pays) = 1 – P(Jane pays)

= 1 – 0.625

= 0.375
Homework:

Exercise 8G (pp 376-377) #1,2,3,5,7,9

Exercise 8H (pp 379-380) #2,3,4,5,6
Exercise 8I (p. 385) #2, 3, 4