Probability

Part 1: set notation

1. At a school, 15% of students take mathematics and 20% of these students

take physics as well. 21% of the students take physics but not mathematics.

a. Draw a Venn diagram to represent the information.

b. Find the probability that the student takes
i. Both mathematics and physics.
ii. Neither mathematics nor physics.

2. In a town, 40% of the population read newspaper A, 30% read newspaper B, 10%
read newspaper C. It is found that 5% read both A & B, 4% read both A & C,
3% read both B & C, 2% read all three. Find the probability that a person
chosen at random,

a. Reads only A.
b. Reads only B.
c. Reads none of the newspaper.

3. If A & B are two events such that 𝑃(𝐴) = 1/4, 𝑃(𝐵) = 1/8, 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 1/8, find
a. 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)
b. 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)-

4. If 𝑃(𝑋) = 0.2, 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.5, 𝑃(X ∩ 𝐵) = 0.1, find

a. 𝑃(𝑋 ∪ 𝐵)
b. 𝑃(𝑋 ∪ 𝐵)′
c. 𝑃(𝑋- ∪ 𝐵)

5. If 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵′) = 0.5, 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.2, 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 0.85, find

a. 𝑃(𝐴)
b. 𝑃(𝐵)
c. 𝑃(𝐴′ ∩ 𝐵)
Part 2: set notation with independent/given/mutually exclusive events

1. For events X & Y, it is known that 𝑃(𝑋′ ∩ 𝑌′) = 0.35, 𝑃(𝑋) = 0.25, 𝑃(𝑌) = 0.6. Find,

a. 𝑃(𝑋 ∩ 𝑌)

b. 𝑃(𝑋|𝑌)

c. 𝑃(𝑌-|𝑋′)

2. A & B are mutually exclusive events. 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.26, 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.37. Find,

a. 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

b. 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵)

c. 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)

3. A & B are events such that 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 0.9, 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.2, (𝐴|𝐵) = 0.8. Find,

a. 𝑃(𝐴)

b. 𝑃(𝐵′)

4. Events A & B are such that 𝑃(𝐴) = 1/3, 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) = 1/4, 𝑃(𝐴- ∩ 𝐵-) = 1/6. Find,

a. 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)

b. 𝑃(𝐵)

5. If 𝑃(𝑋) = 0.4, 𝑃(𝑌) = 0.6, 𝑃(𝑍) = 0.3, 𝑃(𝑋 ∩ 𝑌) = 0.24, 𝑃(𝑌 ∩ 𝑍) = 0.15 and

𝑃(𝑋 ∩ 𝑍) = 0.32, which of the events X, Y and Z are independent?

6. Given that 𝑃(𝐴) = 1/3, 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 5/6 and 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) = 3/4 , find 𝑃(𝐵) . Are the

events A & B independent?

7. Independent events A & B are such that 𝑃(𝐴) = 𝛼, 𝑃(𝐵) = 2𝛼 and 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) =

5/8. Find 𝑃(𝐴) and 𝑃(𝐵).

8. For events A & B, it is given that 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.7, 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.6 & 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵- ) = 0.8. Find

a. 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵′)

b. 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)

c. 𝑃(𝐵′|𝐴)

For a third event C, it is given that 𝑃(𝐶) = 0.5 and that A and C are independent.

d. Find 𝑃(𝐴- ∩ 𝐶).

e. Hence state an inequality satisfied by 𝑃(𝐴′ ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶).

9. Two events A & B are independent, and it is given that 𝑃(𝐴) = 1/4, 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) =

2/3. Find

a. 𝑃(𝐵) and justify if A & B are mutually exclusive.

b. 𝑃@(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)A(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)B

Part 3: probability with P&C

1. Four people are to be chosen from 5 men and 4 women to form a team. One of the

men is Max and one of the women is Wendy. Find the probability that the team

contains

a. 2 men and 2 women.

b. At least 2 women.

c. Max or Wendy but not both.

d. At least one man and at least one woman.

2. Ten guests are seated at a round dinner table. 3 of the guests are not comfortable

sitting beside each of the other two. If seating is assigned randomly, what is the

probability that all 3 guests are seated separately?

3. The letters of the word SPECIAL are rearranged. What is the probability of getting

a new word such that the letters S and P are together, and the letters E and C are

together?
Part 4: probability trees

1. The probability what John goes to school by MRT, by bus and by car are 0.4, 0.5

and 0.1 respectively. John is late for school 5% of the time if he travels by MRT,

6% if by bus and 1% if by car. Find the probability that John does not take the MRT

given that he is late for school.

During a 5-day week, find the probability that John is late for the 2nd time on the

last day.

2. When Mrs. Ong visits a spa centre, she will do either a Javanese massage or a

Swedish massage. During her first visit of a week, the probability that she does a

Javanese massage is 0.8. therefore, the probability that she will do a Javanese

massage is 0.6 if she did one is her previous visit, and 0.7 if she did not do one in

her previous visit.

a. Show that the probability that Mrs. Ong does a Javanese massage in the first

3 consecutive visits is 0.288.

b. Find the probability that she does exactly one Javanese massage in the first

3 consecutive visits.

c. Find the probability that the 4th visit is the 2nd time she does a Javanese

massage.

 3. A student has requested for a testimonial to apply for a job. She estimates that

there is an 80% chance of getting the job if she receives an excellent testimonial, a

40% if she receives a moderate testimonial, and a 10% if she receives a fair

testimonial. She further estimates that the probability that the testimonials will be

excellent, moderate or fair are 0.7, 0.2 and 0.1 respectively.

a. Draw a probability tree to illustrate the information given and calculate the

exact probability of the student getting the job.

b. Given that she receives the job offer, what is the exact probability that she

received an excellent testimonial?

c. Given that she did not receive a moderate testimonial, what is the exact

probability that she did not receive the job?

4. 3 machines A, B and C produce 25%, 35% and 40% respectively of the golf balls

manufactured by a factory. These balls are either yellow or white. Of the balls

produced by A & B, 20% and 30% respectively are yellow. It is known that the

probability of picking a yellow ball randomly from the factory is 0.355.

a. If 3 balls are picked randomly, find the probability that

i. At least 2 are produced by machine B.

ii. At least 1 is a yellow ball

iii. At least 1 is a yellow ball given that all 3 are from machine A.

b. Due to a malfunction of machine A, 10% of the balls produced by machine

A is faulty. Find the proportion of white balls that are faulty.