TRIZ tool

S-CURVES

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What is S-CURVE
• S-curve is used to represent the evolution state of a product or
system.
• Four Stages:
• Infancy (formation of system/idea, inception)
• Rapid growth
• Maturity
• Decline
• Help to estimate the position of the system on the S-curve.
• Valuable tool for those who make important decisions.

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Performance
Maturity
Reduce cost Decline
Small improvement No development
New product emerges

Infancy Growth
Pre market On market
Slow development Rapid development

Time
1). Infancy Stage
• A new system start with a promising idea and uses many parts that
come from the old system.
• New system able to provide new functions but takes long time to
work due to lack of resources.
• Have to be enough patient to wait for the system growth.
• Usually called “an ugly duckling”

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2). Rapid growth stage
• People invest and support the improvement of the new system when
recognizing its value and market potential.
• Then, the system comes into rapid growth stage.
• The main performance of the system grows rapidly and becoming
better and better than the old one.
• This is the best among the whole lifecycle of the system.
• System is very popular now.
• The ugly ducking is growing into a “beautiful swan”.

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3). Maturity stage
• The system is reaching its limit.
• Very difficult for the parameter to break through the limit because of
some objective and subjective factors.
• Adding more additional functions to the system is a good way to
increase the whole value of the system.
• Should ready for coming decline stage.

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4). Decline stage
• When the old system is in this stage, the new generation has better
main functions than the old one.
• The old system will be replaced and eliminated or go into some
special areas where it may find new position and new supporter.
• The main function of the system is changed.
• The system likes “an old hen”.

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Trend of Increasing Value
• According to the Trend of Increasing Value, Engineering Systems
evolve in the direction of increasing value.
• Value can be expressed as the ratio of the total functionality of the
Engineering System and its cost. The following formula is used to
express value:

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Trend of
Increasing
Value

Maturity
Decline

Growth

Infancy

Time

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 Assessing the Evolutionary Stage of a
Product/System
• The stages of a product/system can be
determined based on Performance,
Number of Patents, Level of
Invention, and Profitability.

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What we could get from s-curve?
• At the first stage, main efforts should be concentrated on identifying
and eliminating bottlenecks that prevent the system from entering
the market.
• When the new system enters the stage of Rapid Growth, it is common
that its’ performance is better than that of the old system that is
coming into its decline stage. What should we do with the old
system? Just give it up?
• For the system in the stage of maturity, it is suggested to combine
with other systems to get more useful functions. Usually the result of
such combination is not just 1+1=2 but 1+1>2.

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