281 - Thermal and electrical performance prediction of an FSPV system: a case study in the Douro Region
Paulo Vargas , Salviano Pinto Soares and Sérgio Silva
1 1,2
11
School of Sciences and Technology, Engineering Department UTAD, Vila Real Portugal
2
IEETA UA, Aveiro, Portugal
3
INESC TEC Porto, Portugal al70216@alunos.utad.pt;salblues@utad.pt;al52260@utad.eu)
Introduction
The use of traditional renewable energies such as hydro, wind
and solar has been the solution to the world's energy demands
in order to make the final energy consumption more sustainable.
Reasons to use FSPV-systems:
• More efficient than equivalent structures over land due to the water surface winds
that lower the temperature of the structure;
• Floating solar structures are composed from Solar panels that are fixed and
attached to a floating platform than is anchored to the bottom of the dam, lake or
reservoir;
• The systems can either use a floating inverter, or, in the case of smaller
installations, a land inverter can be used to deliver the energy to the grid.
Key Findings
• We can use ML methods based in weather station historical
data to forecast energy generation using FSPV- Systems.
• Among the different ML methods tested the Gradient Boosted
Tree obtains the best performance in both evaluation metrics
against all other tested techniques.
• This is commonly due to the strong scalability and
regularization quality of the GLM.
Methods
The energy data was collected from February 2022 to February
2023 (12 months period), and the dataset comprises daily
temperature observations collected in a FPV installation on the
Douro River region.
The dataset comprises three different variables which are
selected due to their direct effect on energy generation, those
include:
• Air temperature (⁰C),
• The hour of the day (0–23
• Air humidity.
• CO2 was also captured and included to understand if it
directly affects the energy generation.
1,3
Analyses Conclusions
Rapidminer was used to analyze the weather station data and implement the several perdition
models. The evaluation of the Models was done using the following metrics: Machine Learning Models can be applied to weather
station historical data to predict and forecast the
energy production that can be achieve by using FSPV-
  Measure the accuracy of model prediction performance, calculate Systems.
  standard deviation of the residuals or prediction errors
The Douro river region is a good example where we
Indication on how well the regression model is by computing the can install these systems.
distance between the data point and the regression line
In order to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, the
Portuguese government developed a 2030 National
Gives the mean of the absolute differences between forecasted and
Plan for Climate and Energy – PNEC to reach the goal
actual values
of 80% of electricity consumption to be provided by
renewable energies. With that in mind several solar
auctions are being deployed to allocate 30 years
licences for solar power generation in public water
reservoirs.
Results
DL DT
The goals are set to carry out at least two 500MW
tenders per year, awarding a total capacity  of 1GW per
year trying to achieve the 9GW before 2030.
The use of the ML Models can help chose the best
regions where these installation can be deployed.
GBT GLM
RF SVM
[1]
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RMSE MAE
Acknowledgments