Caso de Estudio

Pavimentar Camino de Grava

 El Escenario
Caso Sin Proyecto

- Mantenimiento de rutina
- Perfilados cada 180 días
- Revestir con grava
cuando < 50 mm

Caso Con Proyecto

- Pavimentar en 2000
Camino de y después de pavimentar
Grava con 300 - Mantenimiento de rutina
AADT - Bacheo
- Sello cuando are dañada >20 %
 Deterioro del Camino y
Momento de los Trabajos
18.0

16.0
Replace Gravel at 50 mm
14.0
Roughness (IRI)

12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0
Paving
4.0

2.0 Reseal at 20% damaged area

0.0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Year

Without Project Case With Project Case

 Alternativas y Estándares
18.0
Maintenance
16.0 Standard
14.0
Roughness (IRI)

12.0

10.0 Alternative 1 with 1

8.0 Maintenance Standard
Standard
6.0

4.0

2.0 Alternative 2 with 2

0.0 Standards
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Improvement Year
Standard
Without Project Case With Project Case
Comparación de Alternativas
Without Project With Project

Agency User Society Agency User Society

Year Costs + Costs = Costs Costs + Costs = Costs
1 0.15 4.47 4.62 16.00 4.80 20.80
2 0.15 5.01 5.16 0.28 2.69 2.97
3 0.76 5.24 6.00 0.28 2.79 3.07
4 0.15 4.85 5.00 0.28 2.90 3.18
5 0.15 5.28 5.44 0.28 3.00 3.28
6 0.15 5.51 5.67 0.28 3.12 3.40
7 0.67 5.74 6.41 0.28 3.24 3.52
8 0.15 5.69 5.84 0.28 3.36 3.64
9 0.15 6.21 6.36 0.28 3.49 3.77
10 0.15 6.47 6.62 0.28 3.62 3.90
11 0.76 6.73 7.49 0.28 3.76 4.04
12 0.15 6.67 6.82 0.28 3.91 4.19
13 0.15 7.28 7.43 0.28 4.06 4.34
14 0.76 7.58 8.35 0.28 4.23 4.51
15 0.15 7.52 7.67 0.28 4.39 4.67
16 0.15 8.20 8.35 2.28 4.58 6.86
17 0.76 8.54 9.30 0.28 4.77 5.05
18 0.15 8.47 8.62 0.28 4.97 5.25
19 0.76 9.23 9.99 0.28 5.17 5.45
20 0.15 9.17 9.32 -6.12 5.39 -0.73
Present Value at 12% 51.53 Present Value at 12% 47.61
 Valor Presente Neto (VPN)
Without Project With Project

Society Society Net

Year Costs - Costs = Benefits
1 4.62 20.80 -16.18
2 5.16 2.97 2.19
3 6.00 3.07 2.93
4 5.00 3.18 1.83
5 5.44 3.28 2.15
6 5.67 3.40 2.27
7 6.41 3.52 2.89
8 5.84 3.64 2.20
9 6.36 3.77 2.59
10 6.62 3.90 2.72
11 7.49 4.04 3.45
12 6.82 4.19 2.63
13 7.43 4.34 3.09
14 8.35 4.51 3.84
15 7.67 4.67 2.99
16
r ated 8.35 6.86 1.49
17
G ene 9.30 5.05 4.25
18 ou t 8.62 5.25 3.37
i t h
19
a sew 9.99 5.45 4.53
C
20
ra ffic 9.32 -0.73 10.05
TPresent Value at 12% 51.53 Present Value at 12% 47.61 NPV12% 3.92
 Costos Totales de la Sociedad
Gravel Road (300 MT AADT)
25.0

20.0
Total Society Costs

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
-5.0
Year
Base 2001 0 0 0
 Tasa Interna de Retorno (TIR)
Without Generated Traffic
Net Discount
Benefits Rate (%) NPV
-16.18 5% 19.84
2.19 6% 16.60
2.93 7% 13.76
1.83 8% 11.28
2.15 9% 9.09 25.00
2.27 10% 7.16
2.89 11% 5.44 20.00 With Generated Traffic
2.20 12% 3.92
2.59 13% 2.57 15.00
Net Present Value (M$)

2.72 14% 1.36

3.45 15% 0.27 10.00
2.63 16% -0.71
3.09 17% -1.59 5.00 IRR
3.84
2.99
18%
19%
-2.40
-3.12
NPV
0.00
1.49 20% -3.78 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
4.25 21% -4.39 -5.00
3.37 22% -4.94
4.53
-10.00
10.05
Discount Rate (%)
NPV12% 3.92 IRR 15.3%
 Beneficios del Trafico Generado
Without Generated Traffic
Without Agency + Normal Traffic = Total
Project Costs User Costs Costs
- - -
With Agency + Normal Traffic = Total
Project Costs User Costs Costs
Agency + Normal Traffic = Net
Benefits User Benefits Benefits

With Generated Traffic

Without Agency Normal Traffic
Project Costs User Costs
- -
With Agency Normal Traffic Generated Traffic
Project Costs User Costs User Costs
Agency + Normal Traffic + Generated Traffic = Net
Benefits User Benefits User Benefits Benefits
Elasticidad de Demanda del Transporte
Generated Traffic Due to Decrease in Transport Costs Induced Traffic Due
Transport Costs

Consumer
Surplus

COST1

COST2

ADT1 ADT2 Traffic

Normal Generated Traffic

Traffic Due to Decrease in
Transport Costs
Ejemplo de Beneficios de Trafico Generado
Normal Traffic = 300 ADT and Generated Traffic = 50 ADT
Without Agency Normal Traffic
Project Costs User Costs
2.54 49.00

- -
With Agency Normal Traffic Generated Traffic
Project Costs User Costs User Costs
17.69 29.92

Agency + Normal Traffic + Generated Traffic = Net

Benefits User Benefits User Benefits Benefits
-15.15 19.07 1.59 5.51

Generated Traffic User Benefits = 19.07 / 300 / 2 * 50 = 1.59

Unit Generated Traffic User Benefits = Half the Unit Normal Traffic User Benefits
Frecuencia Optima de Perfilados
(Gráfico de Frontera de Eficiencia)
5% Margin
Gravel Road (300 MT AADT)
14.0

12.0

10.0
Net Present Value

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Present Value of Agency Costs
Base 120 90 D 60 D 30 D
Momento Optimo de Pavimentar
(Gráfico de Frontera de Eficiencia)
5% Margin
Gravel Road (300 MT AADT)
4.5

4.0

3.5
Net Present Value

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0
Present Value of Agency Costs
Base 2001 2002 2003 2004
Frecuencia Optima de Perfilados
(Gráfico de Rugosidad Media)
Gravel Road (300 MT AADT)
14.0

12.0
Average Roughness (IRI)

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Present Value of Agency Costs
Base 120 90 D 60 D 30 D
 Índice de Accidentes
Numero por 100 millones de vehículo-km

South Africa Gravel Road 2 Lane Paved Road

Economic Accidents 230.0 100% Accidents 100.0 100%
Evaluation w Fatality 25.0 11% w Fatality 8.0 8%
Manual w Injury 39.0 17% w Injury 27.0 27%
w Damage 166.0 72% w Damage 65.0 65%

Canada 2 Lane Paved Road 4 Lane Divided Expressway 4 Lane Freeway

British Columbia Accidents 121.0 100% Accidents 93.0 100% Accidents 50.0 100%
Economic w Fatality 1.9 2% w Fatality 1.1 1% w Fatality 0.5 1%
Evaluation w Injury 36.3 30% w Injury 30.0 32% w Injury 16.2 32%
Manual w Damage 82.8 68% w Damage 61.8 67% w Damage 33.4 67%

- South Africa: Economic Warrants for Surfacing Roads, 1989, SABITA and CSIR
- Canada : The Economic Appraisal of Highway Investment “Guidebook”, 1992, Ministry of
Transportation
 Índice de Accidentes
Numero por 100 millones de vehículo-km

Hungary 2 Lane Roads 4 Lane Undivided Hwy Motorways

Ministry of Accidents 35.2 100% Accidents 45.1 100% Accidents 10.0 100%
Transport w Fatality 3.3 9% w Fatality 2.8 6% w Fatality 1.2 12%
1997 w Injury 31.9 91% w Injury 42.4 94% w Injury 8.8 88%
w Damage w Damage w Damage

France 2 Lane 5 - 7 m 4 Lane > 14 m Separate Carriageways

PIARC Accidents 20.2 Accidents 14.6 Accidents 7.3
Road Safety Casualities 37.0 100% Casualities 26.1 100% Casualities 21.7 100%
Montreal 1995 Fatalities 3.2 9% Fatalities 2.2 8% Fatalities 1.2 6%
Injuries 33.7 91% Injuries 23.9 92% Injuries 20.5 94%
 Suposiciones de Índice de Accidentes
Proporción Distinta Proporción Igual

Accident Accident Accident Accident

Rate Cost Rate Cost
Accident (#/100m vkm) ('000$) Accident (#/100m vkm) ('000$)
Without w Fatality 25 100 Without w Fatality 20 100
Project w Injury 39 10 Project w Injury 30 10
"Gravel" w Damage 166 2 "Gravel" w Damage 150 2
Total 230 14 Total 200 13
With w Fatality 8 100 With w Fatality 10 100
Project w Injury 27 10 Project w Injury 15 10
"Paved" w Damage 65 2 "Paved" w Damage 75 2
Total 100 12 Total 100 13
Accidentes y Beneficios de NMT
Base Con Con
Accidentes Accidentes &
NMT
VPN 3.9 5.3 6.5
IRR 15.3% 16.4 % 17.3%

NMT => 5 Bicicletas ($75 costo de adquisición)

5 Rickshaws ($130 costo de adquisición)
5 Carros de Animales ($180 costo de adquisición)
5 Pedestres