Shampoo Sales Data - Weigthed Moving Average over 5 Periods

Year Period Sales Forecast (WMA5)

1 1 303.2
2 178.5
3 224.6
4 149.9
5 217.2
6 214.0 200.0
7 275.9 198.3
8 266.7 206.8
9 230.2 230.2
10 152.9 247.4
11 392.2 240.1
12 228.6 228.6
2 13 232.9 276.4
14 186.7 247.9
15 250.6 250.6
16 321.5 241.3
17 219.7 234.6
18 336.7 257.2
19 289.4 250.8
20 355.4 292.1
21 340.0 294.0
22 487.5 315.5
23 310.5 341.9
24 408.7 385.6
3 25 395.8 368.1
26 508.5 393.1
27 369.1 402.0
28 513.3 423.4
29 484.8 420.3
30 505.2 461.6
31 659.9 471.2
32 471.8 492.0
33 779.1 554.4
34 541.6 541.6
35 666.4 630.1
36 734.8 603.9
4 37 638.5

Mean absolute deviation

 Absolute Squared Absolute
error error % error Period Weight
t-5 0.15
t-4 0.21
t-3 0.21
t-2 0.35
t-1 0.07
14.0 197.1 6.6% 1.00
77.6 6028.9 28.1%
59.9 3593.6 22.5%
0.0 0.0 0.0%
94.5 8924.3 61.8%
152.1 23122.9 38.8%
0.0 0.0 0.0%
900.0
43.4 1886.9 18.6%
61.2 3744.6 32.8% 800.0
0.0 0.0 0.0% 700.0
80.2 6427.5 24.9%
600.0
14.9 221.8 6.8%
79.5 6325.4 23.6% 500.0
38.6 1491.9 13.3% 400.0
63.3 4010.0 17.8%
300.0
46.0 2116.5 13.5%
172.0 29586.7 35.3% 200.0

31.3 981.4 10.1% 100.0

23.1 532.9 5.6%
0.0
27.7 767.3 7.0% 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
115.4 13321.1 22.7%
32.9 1079.2 8.9%
89.9 8076.2 17.5%
64.5 4155.8 13.3%
43.6 1903.7 8.6%
188.7 35592.4 28.6%
20.2 408.7 4.3%
224.7 50503.7 28.8%
0.0 0.0 0.0%
36.2 1311.4 5.4%
130.9 17131.2 17.8%
65.4 7530.4 16.9%

MAD MSE MAPE

Mean absolute deviation
Mean squared error
Mean absolute percent error
15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37