Monthly Wine Sales in 1000 litres - understanding and isolating seasonality

Average Seasonal
Year Month t Demand Demand Ratio
1 Jan 1 16458 27823 0.59
Feb 2 19287 27823 0.69
Mrz 3 25378 27823 0.91
Apr 4 20402 27823 0.73
Mai 5 20844 27823 0.75
Jun 6 22173 27823 0.80
Jul 7 26205 27823 0.94
Aug 8 28345 27823 1.02
Sep 9 24269 27823 0.87
Okt 10 25873 27823 0.93
Nov 11 30488 27823 1.10
Dez 12 33737 27823 1.21
2 Jan 13 14937 27823 0.54
Feb 14 20798 27823 0.75
Mrz 15 23032 27823 0.83
Apr 16 27837 27823 1.00
Mai 17 22471 27823 0.81
Jun 18 25361 27823 0.91
Jul 19 29422 27823 1.06
Aug 20 34758 27823 1.25
Sep 21 26849 27823 0.96
Okt 22 23948 27823 0.86
Nov 23 31154 27823 1.12
Dez 24 33963 27823 1.22
3 Jan 25 16354 27823 0.59
Feb 26 20704 27823 0.74
Mrz 27 23609 27823 0.85
Apr 28 26949 27823 0.97
Mai 29 26634 27823 0.96
Jun 30 25315 27823 0.91
Jul 31 30261 27823 1.09
Aug 32 30829 27823 1.11
Sep 33 27512 27823 0.99
Okt 34 26819 27823 0.96
Nov 35 32913 27823 1.18
Dez 36 35548 27823 1.28
4 Jan 37 18636 27823 0.67
Feb 38 24837 27823 0.89
Mrz 39 27878 27823 1.00
Apr 40 23945 27823 0.86
Mai 41 29206 27823 1.05
Jun 42 27268 27823 0.98
Jul 43 28739 27823 1.03
 Aug 44 35121 27823 1.26
Sep 45 27946 27823 1.00
Okt 46 27363 27823 0.98
Nov 47 33694 27823 1.21
Dez 48 38825 27823 1.40
5 Jan 49 20335 27823 0.73
Feb 50 25308 27823 0.91
Mrz 51 30298 27823 1.09
Apr 52 25458 27823 0.91
Mai 53 30598 27823 1.10
Jun 54 26533 27823 0.95
Jul 55 31637 27823 1.14
Aug 56 41001 27823 1.47
Sep 57 26538 27823 0.95
Okt 58 28644 27823 1.03
Nov 59 34033 27823 1.22
Dez 60 40889 27823 1.47
6 Jan 61 21318 27823 0.77
Feb 62 25053 27823 0.90
Mrz 63 30160 27823 1.08
Apr 64 25656 27823 0.92
Mai 65 31886 27823 1.15
Jun 66 29019 27823 1.04
Jul 67 26363 27823 0.95
Aug 68 37789 27823 1.36
Sep 69 27480 27823 0.99
Okt 70 32317 27823 1.16
Nov 71 37909 27823 1.36
Dez 72 43082 27823 1.55
7 Jan 73 22989 27823 0.83
Feb 74 24894 27823 0.89
Mrz 75 29897 27823 1.07
Apr 76 27965 27823 1.01
Mai 77 28086 27823 1.01
Jun 78 32172 27823 1.16
Seasonal
Index
0.67 Demand
0.83 50000
0.98 45000
0.92 40000
0.97 35000
0.96 30000
1.03 25000
1.25
20000
0.96
15000
0.99
10000
1.20
5000
1.35
0
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89 97 105 113 121 129 137 145 153 161 169

Seasonal Index
1.60

1.40

1.20

1.00

0.80

0.60

0.40

0.20

0.00
1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99 106113120127134141148155162169176
0.40

0.20

0.00
1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99 106113120127134141148155162169176
5 113 121 129 137 145 153 161 169

dex

6113120127134141148155162169176
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