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BU 111

Analytical thinking and


case analysis
We will be applying the concepts to the “Nailed It” case.
Click here to download and read prior to this lecture

Copyright Sofy Caryannopoulos


Learning Objectives
• Understand value of case analysis
• Understand case analysis process
• Develop ability to use various approaches to insightfully identify
issues
• Identify relevant contextual insights and incorporate them into
analysis
• Identify and compare solutions
• Apply forcefield analysis to identify the forces enabling and
constraining your solution
• Recognize three types of recommendations and how they create a
complete solution
• Recognize the importance of impact and how it can be shown
• Identify risks, mitigation and contingency strategies to increase
solution success
• Effectively organize your solution
• Effectively organize the communication of your solution

Copyright Sofy Caryannopoulos


Analytical thinking is critical skill
Case analysis builds this skill

Builds analytical thinking – being smart means


knowing what questions to ask
Ref. Consulting 3.3

Develops experience and insight on application of Business world is messy,


models information incomplete
and there is no perfect
solution… but a lot of
flawed solutions – learn
Develops familiarity with decision-making to make the best
environment – prepares for real world choices

Builds problem-solving and solution-creating skills


Examples of consulting questions or business
issues you might confront: Consulting 2.2-2.5
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Case analysis purpose & process

Purpose is to identify a GOOD solution:


▪Feasible – firm has or can get the resources to implement it
▪ Complete – outlines all the key activities that must be executed
▪ Effective – achieves the immediate and overarching objectives
ANALYTICAL COMPONENT &
FACTOR SOLUTION SIGNIFICANCE

Feasibility, effectiveness: Criteria,


Who, what, where
constraints, aspirations

What models are relevant? Issue identification, solution


completeness, constraints (feasibility)

What are they trying to achieve with


Effectiveness: Identify & meet KPI
the answer? Objectives & aspirations

What constraints or complications do Feasibility & completeness - options,


we face? solution components, implementation
Copyright Sofy Caryannopoulos Re: Lab manual and Consulting 5.1, 5.2, 5.3
Case analysis process

Understand the question, answer it completely and prove it can be done and will work

Process:
▪ Identify the issues – immediate, underlying - and summarize as a question
▪ Identify the objectives and aspirations
▪ Identify complications & constraints
▪ Identify & apply relevant models and do research to enhance understanding
▪ Develop and evaluate hypotheses (options)
▪ Propose good solution with implementation
▪ Identify risks , mitigation and contingency strategies
▪ Demonstrate impact

Re: Lab manual and Consulting 5.1, 5.2, 5.3

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Step 1: What’s the issue and
what’s the question?

Need to ask the right question


to give the right answer

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Step 1: What’s the question?

Elements:
1.Understand immediate question, underlying issue
2.Identify relevant models and frameworks

Tools:
▪3 Whys
▪ Models, frameworks, issue trees

Protip:
▪ The immediate issue and hints at underlying are usually found in
the introduction and/or conclusion of case

Copyright Sofy Caryannopoulos


Components of the issue

Immediate Immediate issue:


What you see
•the “in your face” issue/question
•usually stated in introduction

Underlying issue:
•the cause of the immediate
•if case is an opportunity pursuit, underlying
Underlying
What causes it issue = aspiration ie why are we chasing this
opportunity?

Must solve underlying as well as immediate issue otherwise solution


incomplete or issue returns

Copyright Sofy Caryannopoulos


How do you identify underlying issue?
3 whys
Problem Opportunity

Immediate issue: You are hungry at 11 am Immediate issue: Want to expand your
business
Big question: How to ensure you have Big question: How to grow your
food in the morning? business?

“3 Whys” approach:
Immed Why Why Why Imme Why Why Why
d
No Sleep in Up late
breakfast Increase Sell Retire
profits business
No No food No car for
Hungry breakfast groceries Grow Int’l known Build
Grow brand legacy
No Can’t Don’t
breakfast cook know how Diversify Rely on one Reduce
revenues source risk
Key: Must understand the underlying to completely and effectively solve immediate
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Understand the issue – issue tree

Profitability IMMEDIATE UNDERLYING


framework What models
can we use to
understand
more?

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Need to know what we are aiming
for with solution so we can prove
we achieve it

Step 2: What are the objectives,


aspirations and criteria that our
solution should satisfy?

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What do we want to accomplish?

Importance of identifying objectives and aspirations:


1.Affects design
2.Proves effectiveness

Two kinds of objectives:


▪ Given in case – obvious – what do we want to achieve with this solution?
▪ Aspirational-long term – what else do we want now and in the future?
What’s our vision?

Why consider aspirations? Decisions made today affect options of


tomorrow.
Understanding aspirations ensures that decisions made today don’t constrain
you from building towards desired future

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Difference between objectives and criteria

Objectives Decision criteria


Achieves this While ensuring this
Purpose of the solution Features that describe a good solution –
Key performance descriptive
INDICATORS Key performance DRIVERS; Key success
factors

Usually explicitly given Aspirations, priorities, boundaries


Can be quantitative or qualitative

Used to show solution is Used to compare alternatives and/or show


effective solution is likely to be effective, feasible and
desirable

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Identifying ideal solution qualities

Decision criteria
▪ Needed to judge options or ensure solution addresses key objectives
▪ Can be applied to overall solution or to questions with obvious options,
i.e. solution aligns with company mission, increases reputation for social
responsibility and is focused on Canadian market vs. which country do we
expand into?

2-4 criteria; an ideal solution will…


▪ Satisfy key success factors of solution
▪ Address or stay within constraints or preferences ie reinforce company
vision, not require additional borrowing
▪ Support the aspirations or vision or top priority of the organization or
decision-maker

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Understand the context:

Step 3: What are the


constraints, options and
components needed for a
complete, feasible and effective
solution

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Step 2: Understand the context

Importance: Need to understand the situation to ensure your solution is


complete, feasible and effective

Elements:
1.Complications/constraints, strengths & opportunities [feasible]
2.Complete solution components [complete]

Tools:
▪ Models, frameworks, issue trees; Diamond-E plus…
▪ Research on industry, competition, customer and environment

Copyright Sofy Caryannopoulos


Examples of constraints & complications

Diamond-E
▪ Human resources are largely non-tech savvy
▪ Already have a lot of debt so can’t borrow to expand
▪ Technology talent is in short supply and tends to go to larger firms

Porter’s Five Forces


▪ High competition, unreachable customers, majority of suppliers are at
capacity with existing contracts

Generic strategies
▪ Product is viewed as commodity – hard to differentiate
▪ Low cost requires large scale but markets are too small

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Using the number for quantitative insights

▪ Think about the issue – what items are relevant and related?
▪ Eg. Market strategy or marketing case – advertising spend
▪ Horizontal analysis: Changes in relevant items over time
▪ Vertical analysis: is something really big or too small relative to revenues or
profits?
▪ What line items will be affected by your solution and in what way? Do you
see any obvious constraints, i.e. too much debt, very little cash, too few
human resources, production capacity?
▪ Market strategy/expansion case: market shares, relative price, growth,
competitors

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Pause: Before moving to
solutioning, identify and apply
models

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Models & frameworks help identify:

▪ Issue:
▪ What elements make up this issue?
▪ What is the company missing or doing poorly?
▪ Solution:
▪ Options: how could we solve this? What must we consider?
▪ Tactics: What must company do to execute a complete
solution?
▪ Strategy: What underlying issue to focus on and resolve

Application:
▪ Guidance for 3 whys
▪ Guidance for implementation
▪ Can be combined for complete solution
▪ Can be used to address issues from other disciplines
Copyright Sofy Caryannopoulos
Understand the issue – Diamond – E plus…

Where to grow; what to grow, profitability, strategy

Marketing
HR:
Innovation

Digital strategy &


solutions
Mergers & HR: Change,
acquisitions culture,
training

Copyright Sofy Caryannopoulos


Step 4: What are the
options/hypotheses we can use
to solve the problem? What’s
the best one?

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Developing options

▪ Sometimes given in case – address them


▪ Sometimes come from model
▪ Okay to add your own if it is as strong or better
▪ Sometimes status quo is okay
▪ Should be mutually exclusive – you can only pick one
▪ Use decision criteria to compare

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Comparing options

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Step 5: Lay out the strategic,
tactical and operational
solution details; Use forcefield
analysis to ensure you are
harnessing enabling forces and
addressing points of resistance

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Three levels of recommendations for a
complete solution

Goals

What is the “big idea” for answering the key question


Strategic
in the case

What are the 2-3 main questions/actions needed to


Tactical
make the strategic recommendation a reality

What do we need to make, buy, borrow, acquire to


Operational
implement the tactical recommendations?

Copyright Sofy Caryannopoulos


Example of components of a complete
solution

Question Strategic plan Tactical plan Operational plan


Redesign product for “Inspire-the-design” competition
university students Create cross-functional team to
execute design
How can
the Create awareness with Promote on Instagram, hire on-
Target and lock the left-is-right campus ambassadors to
company
in university campaign to create promote;
grow its
students in awareness;
revenues
Canada
Goal: $5
mil. Create loyalty program Hire XYZ company to develop
to lock in customers app and give points with each
use and referral

Case Big idea Solution components Key actions and resources to


objective make it happen

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Another complete solution example

Governing Thought:
Big question – big idea
Acme can reduce costs by $10mm in the
next 2 years through some operational
improvements

Three tactical
strategies
support Re-engineer core Outsource non-core Differentiate service levels
overall functions to save $5mm functions to save $3mm to save $2mm
strategy

Compare Evaluate Determine Shift lower


Operational Evaluate
cost of Adopt best cost and
Choose
economic value
strategies internal Select one Segment
function to practices service level of segments
cost of non-core partner for customers
best-in- based on level of service for to lower
core functions each by value
class benchmarks potential each cost
function function
benchmarks partners segment channels

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Force field analysis – Identify enabling &
constraining forces for feasibility and completeness
JUSTIFICATION OF STRATEGY STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION
INTERNAL Resources INTERNAL
Cost advantages (scale) Capabilities Lack of experience
Unique resources Lack of product knowledge
Innovative products Lack of market knowledge
Product knowledge Limited financial resources
Market knowledge Inappropriate culture, process
Production capacity Lack of skills
Financial resources Inefficient scale

EXTERNAL EXTERNAL
Customer relationships Customer lock-in
Brand recognition Lack of brand awareness
Business network Limited/no network
Expanding market potential Limited market potential
Low competition Customer High competition
Low entry barriers Competition High entry barriers
Barriers
Ref: Consulting section 5.1 and figure 9.7
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Force field analysis – application
Use these to strengthen Address these in your
your argument 2. Look at these solution so it’s complete,
JUSTIFICATION OF STRATEGY STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION
feasible & effective
and think
INTERNAL Resources INTERNAL
Diamond
Cost – E – (scale)
advantages what Capabilities Diamond
Lack of–experience
E – resource or
resource
Uniqueor resources
capabilities do capabilities
Lack of product you need but
knowledge
you have products
Innovative that are don’t
Lack have orknowledge
of market will create
consistent with solution,
Product knowledge resistance?
Limited Make
financial sure I
resources
make solution
Market possible?
knowledge address them
Inappropriate to make
culture, process
Use as proof of
Production feasibility
capacity recoof
Lack feasible
skills
1. Given what I Inefficient scale
Financial resources
am thinking or
wanting to
EXTERNAL recommend… Diamond – E – what
EXTERNAL
Diamond – E – what
Customer relationships Porter’s,
Customer PEST or other
lock-in
Porter’s, PEST or other
Brand recognition factors
Lack are important
of brand awareness to
factors are important to 3. Look at these
Business network consider
Limited/noandnetwork
will pose
consider and are aligned and think
Expanding market potential challenges or constraints?
Limited market potential
with my reco and make Customer
Low competition Make
High sure I avoid or
competition
this an opportunity? Competition
Low entry barriers address
High them
entry barriers
Barriers
Ref: Consulting section 5.1 and figure 9.7
Copyright Sofy Caryannopoulos
Addressing forces against to ensure feasibility

▪ Constraints & challenges must be worked within or overcome


▪ Solutions always require a shopping list of resources and
capabilities to execute them – make sure to identify these
▪ There a variety of strategies for overcoming these gaps
Force against How to address it
Financial resources Debt, equity
Capability Hire, alliance, acquisition, outsource How do you
choose solution?
Physical capacity Build, outsource activities, license, Diamond-E and
alliance, acquisition size and
significance of
Human resource Hire, do less - outsource activities, need!!!!
capacity technology
Lack of brand Strong marketing campaign
awareness

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Implementation plan timeline

A complete solution outlines not just the actions, but the order and the timing

Key actions to execute Time periods


2019 2019 2020 2020 2021 2021 2022 2022
Action
H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2
German entry approvals
Open new stores Coloured
Design and purchase photo
booth blocks show
Implement virtual try-on start, finish
technology
#Durchblick paid marketing
and timing of
campaign activity
Launch photo booth
Hire 3D printing expert
(student assistant)
Work with expert to turn
design in to models
Use predictive forecasting to
determine material quantities
Introduce 3D printing
features
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Risks, mitigation and contingency

▪ Risks arise from assumptions or uncontrollable variables in the


implementation plan
▪ Can vary in severity and impact
▪ Mitigation strategy reduces the likelihood it will occur
▪ Contingency is what to do if risk occurs
▪ Contingency can’t be “go back and do the other strategy
option”

Options Risk Mitigation Contingency


Drive
Take a boat Sinking Testing hull prior Inflatable raft and
to departure life jacket
Fly
Walk
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Not all risks are the same

Insightful risk discussion requires that you think about the likelihood that a risk
will occur and the impact it is likely to have

▪ Identify the 1 to 3 most likely and impactful


High

risks
▪ Have a plan for all three risks
Impact

2
1 ▪ Prioritize them:
▪ Identify how much damage but also the
likelihood a risk will occur
3 ▪ Focus your energy and resources on most
Low

serious, i.e. #1 and #2 if you have limited


resources to commit
Low High
Probability

Copyright Sofy Caryannopoulos


Proving effectiveness – show impact

What to prove? Satisfaction of objectives and aspirations identified


- quantitative and qualitative objectives

Begin by understanding where the company would be if it changed


nothing, then layer your solution on top (incremental changes)

Three approaches
1.Calculation of what solution achieves
2.Identification of what would have to occur at a minimum via solution to
meet objective and show that this is satisfied – pick most critical
driver/assumption and show you are reaching this threshold
3.Show ROI – if it’s >1 then it’s worthwhile!

Copyright Sofy Caryannopoulos


Proving effectiveness – show evidence

In all approaches, what assumptions are you making to get you to


those outcomes? Show that they are reasonable:

▪ Historical data or information:


• Past company success on similar situations;
• Industry norms
▪ Similar companies or competitors using similar solutions or solution
elements and the outcomes they achieved

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Organizing the communication

More on presentation S:
Q = question (issue topic + objective)
structuring in your lab A = answer (what are we telling you to do)
Q:
S = situation (key context pieces)-key scenario
manual C:
pieces to keep in mind
A:
STRATEGIC C = key complication/constraint (what we have to
RECOMMENDATION - thesis work within or address to make solution feasible)

STRATEGIC
S: S: S:
&
Q: Q: Q:
TACTICAL
C: C: C:
RECOMMENDATION
A: A: A:

TACTICAL
S: &
Q: OPERATIONAL
C: RECOMMENDATION
A:

REF: 12.3 Consulting book


Copyright Sofy Caryannopoulos
Summary & review

Purpose is to identify a GOOD solution:


▪ Feasible – firm has or can get the resources to implement it
▪ Complete – outlines all the key activities that must be executed
▪ Effective – achieves the immediate and overarching objectives

Process:
▪ Identify the questions – immediate, underlying,
▪ Identify the objectives and aspirations
▪ Apply models and do research to understand complications & constraints
▪ Develop and evaluate hypotheses (options)
▪ Propose good solution with implementation
▪ Identify risks , mitigation and contingency strategies
▪ Demonstrate impact
Re: Lab manual and Consulting 5.1, 5.2, 5.3

Copyright Sofy Caryannopoulos


Consulting careers and case competitions

Do practice cases to sharpen your thinking on all business issues

Important skill regardless of discipline – all companies and entrepreneurs need


(to be) sharp thinkers

Lots of companies use a “case interview” approach – finance and consulting in


particular

Excellent video that shows a walk-through of new product launch that applies
Diamond-E, Porter’s, 4C (company, competition, customer, product, and ROI: :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNdh65RllVU

Additional resources:
Marc Cosentino – Case in Point
Victor Cheng – Case Interview Secrets
Wharton Consulting Club Casebook
Harvard Business School Management Consulting Club Case Interview Guide
Copyright Sofy Caryannopoulos
Apply to case

Steps 1-3 – big


question,underlying issues,
situation (objective,
constraints, criteria), relevant
models and frameworks

Copyright Sofy Caryannopoulos


Case analysis elements & their importance

ANALYTICAL COMPONENT &


FACTOR SOLUTION SIGNIFICANCE

Decision criteria, constraints ,


Who, what, where, when aspirations (feasibility,
effectiveness)

Solution completeness,
What models are relevant? constraints & enablers
(feasibility)

Identify & meet KPI, decision


What are they trying to achieve with the
criteria, solution
answer? Objectives & aspirations
(effectiveness)

What constraints do we face that limit our Feasible options, solution


options and complications that represent components, implementation
challenges we have to address? (completeness)

Copyright Sofy Caryannopoulos


Understand the issue – 3 whys

Why is the company not sufficiently profitable?

Immediate Why Why


Low revenues Low demand Low advertising

Low contribution High COGS Small quantities

What is the underlying issue of all of this? What do we have to


fix so it doesn’t happen again?

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Understand the issue – issue tree

What KSF
indicators can
Profitability we look at to
framework help
diagnose?

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What models & frameworks are relevant?

Understanding the
situation When evaluating a business situation
think about company, competition,
product, customer

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Quickly understanding your situation - fast
quantitative insights
▪ Think about the issue – what items are relevant and related?
▪ Eg. Market strategy or marketing case – product mix; advertising
spend, market share, relative price
▪ Horizontal analysis: Changes in relevant items over time
▪ Vertical analysis: is something really big or too small relative to revenues
or profits?
▪ What line items will be affected by your solution and in what way? Do
you see any obvious constraints, i.e. too much debt, very little cash, too
few human resources, production capacity?
▪ Market strategy/expansion case: market shares, relative price, growth,
competitors

Copyright Sofy Caryannopoulos


Big question in this case

Question: How do we achieve profitability that enables financial independence?


Objective: $1 mil. in profits
Aspiration: Becoming the community’s hardware store

Situation:
▪ big competition, uses cost leadership
▪ largest customer segment wants good product range and advice

Constraints/complications:
▪ too small to buy large quantities – lower costs tough - will make competing on
price challenging = differentiation needed
▪ products are commoditized – need to differentiate something else
▪ financial and physical constraints make variety challenging

Decision criteria - we need a solution that:


▪ Doesn’t compete on price – creates differentiation
▪ Grows revenues
▪ Builds community
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Apply to case
Step 4 - options

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How to increase profitability

Profitability
framework

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Analyzing your options

Sales growth What do we know


framework about the company,
the customers, the
product and the
competition?

REPUTA- Not SECURES


TION compet PROFITA-
e on BILITY
price

EXIT O X X

Increase volume O O O

Expand offering O O /

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Necessary for success?

What are the needed company, customer, competition and product


conditions that would make a differentiation focus strategy successful?

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Apply to case
Step 5

Forcefield analysis
Three levels of recommendation
Risks & mitigation
Demonstrating effectiveness

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Example of components of a complete
solution
Question Strategic plan Tactical plan Operational plan
Refine product offering Get rid of appliances; use space
& focus on service for ??? (workshops?); partner
with ”weekend warriors” who
can go to homes and offer advice
How can and services and contractors
the who can execute?
Differentiate
company
and build
increase
community by Create awareness Promote on Instagram, create
profitabili
adding services with ??? home repair tik toks?
ty
via community
contacts
Goal:
$14.5 mil. Create loyalty program Hire XYZ company to develop
to lock in customers app and give points with each
use and referral

Case Big idea Solution components Key actions and resources to


objective make it happen

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Outlining a good solution

▪ Option to pursue:
▪ What are the main actions we have to take to execute?
▪ What are the constraints or complications we have to address?

Copyright Sofy Caryannopoulos


Force field analysis – enabling & constraining
factors
JUSTIFICATION OF STRATEGY STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION

INTERNAL
INTERNAL Lack of experience
Dedicated sales people Lack of market knowledge
Product knowledge Limited financial resources
Production capacity Inefficient scale

EXTERNAL
Lack of brand awareness
EXTERNAL Strong competition
Customer relationships Few strong relationships with
Expanding market potential professional contractors and
weekend warriors

Table 5.1 in consulting book


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Filling the gaps

▪ Constraints & challenges must be worked within or overcome


▪ Solutions always require a shopping list of resources and
capabilities to execute them – make sure to identify these
▪ There a variety of strategies for overcoming these gaps

Need How to fill it


Financial resources
How do you
Capability choose solution?
Diamond-E and
Physical capacity size and
significance of
need!!!!
Human resource
capacity

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Implementation plan timeline

Action 2019 H1 2019 H2 2020 H1 2020 H2 2021 H1 2021 H2 2022 H1 2022 H2

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Financial analysis for case

Could compare profitability using today’s numbers to show change if appliances


substituted with lawn

Product Sales Contribution Contribution margin*


Lawn & garden $733,903 $264,205.08 0.36
Appliances & housewares $733,903 $132,102.54 0.18
Increase in contribution $132,102.54
*assume that if contribution on appliances is 90% of industry average (18 vs 20%),
can achieve same with lawn & garden (90% of 40%)

OR Could show that amount of lawn & garden needed to do same as appliances

Alternatively, to get same amount of contribution


Contribution from appliances: $132,102.54
Lawn sales needed to match: 0.36X = $132,102.54 X=$366,951.50
this is only 50% of
appliance sales ($366,952/$733,903)
+Add’l savings from reduced carrying costs

Copyright Sofy Caryannopoulos


Risk, mitigation & contingency
Impact

2 1 Pick the most obvious and likely


3 maximum

Probability
Risk Mitigation Contingency

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Financial analysis for case

What are the major costs? Are they variable or fixed? Will they go up or
down? Can you estimate based on percentage of revenues?

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Financial analysis for case

What % of market share is needed to achieve desired target? Is it feasible?

Assuming you can get profit margin to 7% it’s $1 mil/0.07 = $14,300,000 revenues
(roughly) needed

$27 billion industry revenue – 30% held by large companies leaves $18.9 bn

$18.9 bn / 1,400 stores = $13.5 million average revenues

Compared to $14.3 million shown above means business has to be slightly larger
than average

Conservative assumptions: only 7% profit margin – much lower than industry


average
Copyright Sofy Caryannopoulos
Questions to think about

1. What are the components of a good solution? What does each one contribute to
ensuring a GOOD solution? What happens if one is not fulfilled?
2. What role do models play in case solution? How do you apply them? How do you
know which models to draw upon?
3. What is the significance of forcefield analysis in the context of case analysis? What
are its components, why are they individually important and how do you apply
them in a case analysis?
4. What is the difference between objectives and decision criteria? What role does
each play in the case analysis process?
5. When using a forcefield analysis, how do you know what factors to consider and
how to address them within the content of your solution?
6. Where does quantitative analysis factor into your case analysis?
7. Why are the aspirations of the organization and decision maker important to
consider when formulating a recommendation?
8. Why is it important to identify risks? What is the difference between a mitigation
plan and a contingency plan? What is the connection between the contingency plan
and your recommendation and the options that you rejected?
9. When trying to assess the underlying causes of a profitability issue, what course
models can you use and how would you apply them?
10. For each key performance indicator, what type of underlying problem might each
KPI signal?

Copyright Sofy Caryannopoulos

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