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Introduction to Probability
m⋂n m n
Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes
01/02/2024 Dr Hima Bindu Valiveti, GRIET
Combining Events
The union m|n is the event that m or n occurs:
When the combining event is m or n,
it means that either m or n or both occur m⋃n
S
m n
S
m The complement m = ׳S\m is
m׳ the event m does not occur
******End of Lesson-1******
𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) =𝑃 ( 𝐴 ¿ ¿ ¿ ) 𝐵 ∩ ׳
׳ ׳
𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) =𝑃 ( 𝐴 ¿ ¿ ¿) 𝐵 ∪ ׳
׳ ׳
If =0, event never occurs and if =1, event occurs in all trials.
=668
=1000
==668/1000=0.668 (Frequency approach)
Note: For any two events A and B, if , then the events are mutually
exclusive
Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes
01/02/2024 Dr Hima Bindu Valiveti, GRIET
Probability Theorems
A sample space is defined as,
, where are the outcomes of events.
The probabilities assigned to the outcome must satisfy
the following requirements:
The probability of any outcome is between 0 and 1
for every outcome
The sum of probabilities of all the outcomes equals 1
+
i.e.,
For any two events and ,
+
Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes
01/02/2024 Dr Hima Bindu Valiveti, GRIET
Mathematical Model of Experiments
Derived from the axioms of Probability
Steps:
1. Define a Sample Space to represent physical
outcomes
2. Define events to represent characteristics of
favourite outcomes
3. Assign probabilities to the defined events
such as the axioms are satisfied
Examples:
• Drawing a second ace from a deck given we got the first ace
• Finding the probability of having a disease given you were tested
positive
• Finding the probability
ProbabilityofTheory
likingandHarry
StochasticPotter given we know the
Processes
person likes fiction
01/02/2024 Dr Hima Bindu Valiveti, GRIET
Conditional Probability
Conditional probability is represented as P(A|B). It is the
occurrence of an event A given that the event B occurs
Hint: Let A1 be the event of finding first defective in first attempt and A2 in the
second, Find their joint probabilities keeping in mind the condition.
X(H)=0 R
X(T)=1
Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes
01/02/2024 Dr Hima Bindu Valiveti, GRIET
Representation of Random Variables
S S
T H T
R X(T)=0 and/or 1 R
X(T)=0 X(H)=1
S
T H (X = x)={k: X(k)= x}
X: RV
x: Value RV takes
R k: The outcome
X(T)=0 =X(H)
Probability, P(X=x)
X =2: HHT HTH THH 2/7
X =3: HHH 1/5
1/8 1/8
Value Probability
1/9
0 1/8
1 3/8 0
0 1 2 3
2 3/8
Value (x)
3 1/8
Properties of cdf,
1. [Similar to probability]
2. [P(S)=1]
3. [P(Ø)=0]
3/4
1/2
1/8
-1 0 1 2 3 4
3. or
dF ( x)
f ( x) x
x dx
x
F ( x) P ( X x) f ( y )dy
x x
1.
In most applications RV is
either continuous or discrete.
But if the cdf of RV X
possesses features of both
discrete and continuous RV’s,
then it is know as Mixed
Probability RVand Stochastic Processes
Theory
01/02/2024 Dr Hima Bindu Valiveti, GRIET
Exercise problem
In an experiment, if a RV X has elements; with probabilities ; ; ;
; ; ]. Draw the distribution function of X.
Properties of cdf,
1. [Similar to probability]
2. [P(S)=1]
3. [P(Ø)=0]
4. if [CDF is increasing function]
5. [CDF is continuous on the right]
6. [CDF
a 1
x
b
=
a 1
x b
=
=
a 1
x
a)
0.25 1
0.2
0.8
0.15
0.6
0.1
0.05 0.4
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0.2
n k nk
expansion
e series.
p qof exponential np np k
{
0 𝑥< 𝑎
𝐹 𝑋 ( 𝑥 ) = 𝑥 − 𝑎 𝑎 ≤ 𝑥 <𝑏
𝑏 −𝑎
1 𝑥≥𝑏
Mean : X , Variance : x2
z ( x)
2
e
2
dz
( x) 1 ( x) 1 x
2
f X ( x) e 2
Alternative notations 2
( x) erf ( x) (error function)
Q( x) 1 ( x) erfc( x) (complementary error function)
For large values of x(ie., x 3)
1 x
2
Q( x) e 2
2x 2