Cristina Boari - BS 2021-22 Average Economic Profits of U.S. Industries (1989–2006)
Cristina Boari - BS 2021-22
Main questions • How can we analyze and understand our competitive environment? • How can we evaluate its attractiveness? • How can we evaluate a competitive environment as an opportunity for investment?
Cristina Boari - BS 2021-22
The five forces framework: origins • Industry’s structure determines the conduct of buyers and sellers and their profits (Mason, 1939)
• Three basic barriers to entry (Bain, 1950s)
• absolute cost advantage by an established firm • product differentiation • economies of scale •Major focus on the role of public policy
Cristina Boari - BS 2021-22
The five forces framework by Porter • Porter’s “Note on the Structural Analysis of Industries” (1974) • Focus on the business policy objective of profit maximization • rather than the public policy objective of minimizing “excess” profits • Competitive Strategy (1980) • Interest in firms’ strategies • “five forces” framework • extended competition for value, rather than just competition among existing rivals • Bain Consulting survey (1993) : 25% usage rate of the model
Cristina Boari - BS 2021-22
Five forces framework
Cristina Boari - BS 2021-22
Competition in Italian shoes industry • Chinese production started competing with Italian shoes in late ‘90s • Chinese shoes had prices lower than Italian shoes • How did Italian firms react? • Which was the most “dangerous” reaction for firms’ profit? • Which competitive environment conditions do bring firms to use this “dangerous” reaction?
Cristina Boari - BS 2021-22
Force 1: Degree of Rivalry • Rivalry and the probability that competition evolves as “price war” • Several determinants of rivalry exist • Number and relative size of direct competitors • Slow growth of the market • Amount of fixed costs • Capacity utilization • Low differentiation of offer and switching costs • Behavioral determinants • Exit barriers Cristina Boari - BS 2021-22 The beer industry in USA in 1970s
• Many SMEs with local markets
• In 1969 Philip Morris acquires Miller, a medium –sized producer of beer • Miller becomes the leader producer in USA, with a national market • How did the competitive environment change for U.S. producers? • What would have limited the Philip Morris entry into the industry? Cristina Boari - BS 2021-22 Force 2: Threat of Entry • Industry profitability is also influenced by potential competitors!! • Entry barriers matter • Economies of scale and experience • High Product differentiation • Switching costs • High need of capital • Access to key resources • Public policy • Network effect
• Incumbents’reactions may matter
• Barriers to entry can change • over time • depending on firms’ strategies Cristina Boari - BS 2021-22 Napster and the file sharing • Fall 1999: the start up Napster and the service of file sharing • December 1999: Major record companies took legal action against Napster for copyright infringement • February 2001: 13,6 million Napster users • 1999-2001: dozens of Napster’s clones are created • March 2001: Bertelsman makes an agreement with Napster • May 2002: Bertelsman buys Napster • Sony and Vivendi start their subscription services • ……….many Napster’s imitators (Kazaa, Gnutella….) and the record industry is the first to experiment the impact of internet with 2digit drops of sales and profits
Cristina Boari - BS 2021-22
Force 3: Threat of Substitutes • Different products, services or business models that satisfy the same basic need of customers • Customers not always quick in detecting them • Sometimes difficult to be spotted and addressed by incumbents! • Threat of substitutes depends on: • Price-to-performance ratios • Switching costs for customers • Retraining • Retooling • Redesign Cristina Boari - BS 2021-22 Force 4: Buyer Power and price sensitivity • Determinants of bargaining power • Relative size and concentration of customers • Customers buy standardized products • Customers have good information • Customers threaten to integrate backward • Willingness or incentive to use buyer power • Financial crisis • Customers buy in large volumes • Product/service is significant portion of buyer’s costs
Cristina Boari - BS 2021-22
Force 5: Supplier Power • Involves suppliers of components, product, services, labor
• Determinant of bargaining power
• relative size and concentration of suppliers relative to industry participants • High degree of differentiation of product and services/ switching costs • Suppliers threaten to integrate downward
Cristina Boari - BS 2021-22
Cristina Boari - BS 2021-22 The evaluation of industry attractiveness requires a forward looking perspective
Cristina Boari - BS 2021-22
Critics to the Porter’s framework • A static model • The role of innovation is limited • Are industries given and stable? • The relationships among different actors are competitive: “ a zero-sum game”?