4.

2 Theoretical Probability
 § 4.1 is about experimental (or empirical) probability
 Actual data used to determine the relative frequency of a
particular event
 Probability is used to predict that a given event will
occur
 Problem with experimental probabilities is they only
provide an estimate of the likelihood of that event
occurring (true for all types of probability)
 However, given a large enough number of trials, the
experimental probability approximately equals the
theoretical probability
4.2 Theoretical Probability
PROBABILITY TYPES
1. Subjective Probability
 Based on informed guess work
2. Empirical Probability
 Based on direct observation or experiment
3. Theoretical Probability
 Based on Mathematical Analysis
 “a priori” Latin for “from the preceding” meaning based on
analysis rather than experiment
 Deals with the actual data and only gives an estimate of
the likelihood of an event occurring
4.2 Theoretical Probability
THEORETICAL PROBABILITY ≡ when all the
outcomes of an experiment that correspond
to an event are equally likely to occur

CALCULATION: the probability of the event occurring is

the ratio of the number of outcomes that make up
that event to the number of possible outcomes

n A
P  A 
nS 
4.2 Theoretical Probability
n A
P  A 
nS 
 where:
 A is the collection of outcomes that
correspond to the event of interest (or the
event space)
 S is the collection of all possible outcomes of
the experiment (or the sample space)
 n(A) means the “number of elements in
the set A” (AKA cardinality)
4.2 Theoretical Probability
Example 1
 Experiment: Rolling a die (one dice)
 Event: Roll turns up a three
 Question: What is the probability of rolling
a three with the die?

1
P ( A) 
6
 Does this mean once every 6 rolls you get a 3?
4.2 Theoretical Probability
Example 2
 Experiment: Drawing a card at random from a
deck of 52 cards
 Event: Drawing an ace
 Question: What is the probability of drawing
an ace from a deck of 52 cards?

4 1
P ( A)  
52 13
4.2 Theoretical Probability
Example 3
 Experiment: Picking a marble from a hat which
contains 3 blue marbles, 2 yellow marbles, and
5 purple marbles.
 Event: Picking a purple marble
 Question: What is the probability of picking a
purple marble?
5 1
P ( A)  
10 2
4.2 Theoretical Probability
Probability and Complementary Events
 The probability of a complementary

event, A’, (all the outcomes in the

sample space that are not in set A) is:

P ( A' )  1  P ( A)
4.2 Theoretical Probability
Example 4
 What is the probability of rolling a 3 with a
die?
P(roll = 3) = 1/6
 What is the probability of rolling something
other than a 3?
P(roll ≠3) = 1 – P(roll = 3)=1-
1/6=5/6
4.2 Theoretical Probability
Venn Diagrams
 Shows the relationship b/t the event space
(A) and the sample space (S)
4.2 Theoretical Probability
Venn Diagram
The complement of A, A’, represents all the
outcomes not in the event space (A)
Note: P(A) + P(A’) = 1
4.2 Theoretical Probability
Example 4 (Using Venn Diagram)
 What is probability of rolling a 3 on a die?
1
P ( A) 
6
 What is probability of rolling a complementary
event (something other than a three)?

1 5
2 P ( A' )  1  
4 6 6
3
1 5
6
4.2 Theoretical Probability
Example 5
 A bag has 4 red marbles, 5 green marbles, and 3
orange marbles.
 What is the probability of picking an orange
marble?
 Draw a Venn Diagram.
 Cereal Box Problem – assignment to hand in
 Use https://www.random.org/ -Games-DiceRoller-1 virtual die

 H/W Pg 218#6-14, 16-18