VIDEO 1

ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN CONFLICT
 PREVIEW

Part - I : Geo- Strat Prism

Part - II : Bone Of Contention

Part - III : Recent Skirmish

Part - IV : Crystal Gazing

 PART I
GEO – STRAT PRISM
 ORIENTATION

BLACK SEA

CASPIAN SEA
 ORIENTATION
 Lesser Caucasus Mtn region
GREATER
CAUCASUS RG
 Armenian Plateau
 Kura Aras Lowland
BLACK SEA
RUSSIA
CASPIAN SEA
GEORGIA

LESSER
CAUCASUS RG
TURKEY

ARMENIA KURA RIVER

 Geo-Pol Arena
AZERBAIJAN
 Mixed Ethnicity
 Religious Affinity
NAKHCHIVAN ARAS RIVER

IRAN
1 CM = 100 KM
 GEO- STRAT IMP

UZBEKISTAN

RUSSIA CASPIAN SEA

BLACK GEORGIA
SEA RAIL/PPL ROUTE

ARMENIA BAKU
AZERBAIJAN TURKMENISTAN

TURKEY

IRAN
SYRIA IRAQ
1 CM = 300 KM
 VIDEO 2

GEO- STRAT IMP : CASPIAN SEA

 ARMENIA
GEORGIA  Landlocked- 30,000 sq km
 Trn- Mostly mtns, Mt
LESSER Aragat(4090m)
CAUCASUS RG
 Fast flowing rivers

ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN
Mt ARAGAT

YEREVAN

ARAS RIVER
TURKEY

 Producer of Copper, Zinc,

NAKHCHIVAN
Gold & Lead
 Unitary Parliamentry Republic
 Majority Population –
Armenian Christians 1 CM = 25 KM
 AZERBAIJAN
 Area- 87,000 sq km
 Trn- Caucasus mtns, (Mt Bazar Dyuzi-4466m),
Flatlands in centre, coastline in east
 Nakhchivan exclave
CASPIAN
KURA RIVER SEA

LESSER
CAUCASUS RG AZERBAIJAN
BAKU

ARMENIA
ARAS RIVER
 Producer of oil (0.9 mn
barrels/day) & natural
gas
NAKHCHIVAN
 Unitary semi-
presidential republic
 Majority Population-
1 CM = 30 KM IRAN
Azeris Muslims
 CHRONOLOGY
Adrianople Treaty
Initial
Kingdoms- ARMENIA (1829)
Portion of W Armenia
Hittite, Mitani
Turks

Turkmenchay
Treaty(1828) Russia

EARLY AGE MIDDLE AGE TO 18TH CENTURY AD 19TH CENTURY AD

BYZENTINE, PERSIAN,
MONGOLS, TURKS RULE RUSSIAN
RULE

TurkmenchayTreaty
(1828) : S Azerbaijan-
Persia
Paleolithic
habitation Gulistan
AZERBAIJAN Treaty(1813) Russia
 CHRONOLOGY

ARMENIA
First
Republic Sep 91,
indep

1918-20 1923
SOVIET SOCIALIST REPUBLICS
1991

USSR
Azerbaijan Aug 91
Democratic
Republic indep

AZERBAIJAN
 FIGHT FOR SPACE
ARMENIAN INHABITED AREAS

RUSSIAN EMPIRE

PERSIAN EMPIRE
OTTOMAN EMPIRE

1 CM =150 KM

 Changing bdys  Clash again during brief indep (1918-20)

 Divide & Rule by Russians  Disinterest of British- WW I
 1905-07 Armenian- Tatar clashes  Soviet- First to divide bdys
 Ideology of Pan- Turkism  No hear to ethnic similarities
 PART II
BONE OF CONTENTION
 NAGORNO KARABAKH

 NKAO Since 1923 GEORGIA

 4400 sq kms
 77% Armenians
 Trn- Mostly mtns,

plateau slopes
towards east

 Geo- Pol Game TURKEY

STEPANAKERT
 Geo- Strat Imp
 Religious
NAKHCHIVAN
Divergence
NAGORNO- KARABAKH
AUTONOMUS OBLAST 1 CM = 30 KM
 CLASHES POST INDEP
NKAO referendum Agdam, Jabrayil, Fuzuli,Kalbajar, Qubadli, Lachin , Zangilan
1 2 3 4 5 6 7

• Unity with Armenia

• Mass killing- Sumgait &
Baku
• Op Ring by USSR- Sp
Azerbaijani SUMGAIT
• Afghan Mjd & Chechen
fighters
TARTAR

Offn by Armenia in BAKU

AGDAM
1991 4 1
MARTUNI
• Captured As around NK
• 6000 AR & 11500 6
3 FUZULI
Azerbaijani KIA
• 20% of Azerbaijani A 5 2
captured
7

De-facto indep of NK
NAKHCHIVAN
1 CM = 30 KM

Fmn of OSCE for 4 DAYS WAR 2016

mediation  Apr 2016- Azerbaijani offn, regained 8 sq km(Lalatapa, Jabrayil)
 Clashes around- Tartar, Agdam, Fuzuli, Martuni.
 THE OUTCOME
(NKAO + 7 Districts captured in 1994 by Armenians)- Area under Azerbaijan cont

NKR/ Republic of Artsakh

Baku

Erevan Martakert
Khojaly Agdam
Stepanakert

1 CM = 20 KM Line of Contact

 Territory of NKAO & surrounding seven districts

 99.7% Armenians, Christianity, Unitary presidential republic
 Area- 11,500 sq km; Population- 1.6 lakh
 Telecom & Tourism industry growing up
 VIDEO 3

KHOJALY MASSACRE
 PART III
RECENT SKIRMISH
MIL ANALYSIS
ARMENIAN
 $ 0.5 bn mil
budget
 S 300 sys, 9K33
OSA, Sterla
msl, Scud,
Tochka SR msl
 Extensive use
of ATGM

AZERBAIJANI
 $ 2.73 bn mil
budget
 LORA, Tochka
msl
 S300P Force ,
Pechora, S-200
msl
 BayraktarTB2
UAV, Harop
 VIDEO 4

ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN CLASH 2020

 MAJOR EVENTS
 Jul clashes – Along bdr in North
& South
 Jt ex Armenia &Russia – AD sys
 Azerbaijan series of ex
TAVUSH TOVUZ
 Azerbaijan- Turkey Jt ex in Sep
GANJA
 Four days hostilities

TARTAR

AGHDAM
SHUSHA

 Grnd Offn in Sep

MARTUNI
 Arty & Msl attks
NAKCHIVAN
 UAV tgts- Tks, Arty sys, AD sys
 Info warfare
 Failed attempts of ceasefire

1 CM =40 KM
 TAC ASPECTS

PH I : 27 SEP

AZERBAIJAN

ARTSAKH
ARMENIA

 Azerbaijani Two- Prong offn

FUZULI
 Northern Offn stalled –Trn
Friction PH II : 7 OCT
 Success in South – BUA
JABRAYIL
fight
 Trench warfare along LoC
CAPTURED As
 Success in South expl
 Short rg ballistic msl
 LESSONS : TAC ASPECTS

Force
• Restn on emp of mech colns
towards South
• Higher Force Ratio for Offn in North
• Emp of Mercenaries
• Emp of LRVs & UCAVs
Time
• Mtns/ BUAs- More time for offn
• Fog- Surprise maint easy
• Timing- Apt after Jt ex


Space Info

• Better def loc in North

• Extensive use of social Media
• BUAs in South- Hy collateral damage
• Fight for legality of cause
• Swift mob by Armenian forces
• Garnering international sp
• Selective tgts for LRVs
• Lesser dply for AD in North
 EFFECTS OF CONFLICT
AZERBAIJANI CAS
ARMENIAN CAS

974 mil 1019 mil

pers, 60 civ pers, 74 civ
KIA KIA

1940
private 5800 Private
house properties

250 Armd
veh 4 Su-25
Fighter

270 Arty &

MLRS 39 mil veh

75000 Civ
18 UAV Displaced
27 UAV

04 S-300 CAPTURED AREA

1 CM =250 KM 36 Tk
 EMP OF MERCENARIES
 Blame on Azerbaijan- Emp Syrian Mercenaries
 Blame on Armenia to emp indls of PKK gp
 Gp of 300 mercenaries flown to Azerbaijan from SE Turkey
 Azerbaijan officials deny emp
 Reports in social media wrt mercenaries KIA
 Provides Hybrid capb

 Wear Azeri uniforms

 Wpns- Kalashnikov Rif/ Shoulder fired
msl/ RPG
 Language – A Challenge
 Rect by Turkish- backed “Syrian
National Army”/ Turkish private
security firms
 Emp in Libyan war & Syrian crisis
 COMPARISON : AD SYS
ARMENIAN AIR DEF AJERBAIJANI AIR DEF

 One Anti- ac msl bde- Two regts  LORA ballistic msl

 Main AD sys- S-300  Two div of S-300 P Force- Most
 Emp EW “ Infauna” & P-325U capb SAM sys
 Msl – Scud & Tochka SR ballistic  Tochka SR ballistic msl

msl  S-300 PMU-2

 S-75, S-125 Pechora-2M,
S-300 S-200
 5V55R SAM
 100 Kgs Warhead LORA MSL
 Max engagement rg- 90 kms  Long Rg msl
 Guidance sys- Terminal semi-  100 pounds HE Warhead
active rdr  Powerful enough- Destroy a Br
 CAPB OF AD SYS

S-300 PT LORA MSL

 EFFICACY OF AD SYS

BAYRAKTAR TB2
• Cruising speed – 70 Knots
• Op Flt Alt- 24,000 ft
Yerevan • See and direct UAVs • 24 hrs of flt time
• Comn Rg- 150 km
(Media max) • Give precise loc up • Payload cap- 55 Kg
Stations to 20km • UMTAS msl- MAM & MAM-L
amn
• Capb against short rg AD sys
HAROP
• Loitering amn
Efficient AD • Anti-radiation drone
• Low level rdr coverage
Sys • Autonomously home in radio
emissions
• Stealthy airframe- Difficult
detection
• Low Thermal sign – Difficult IR
detection
• Sleek body- Visual loc difficult
 VIDEO 5

HAROP:THE KAMAKAZI DRONE

 REGIONAL DYNAMICS

TURKEY IRAN

Azeris

Armenians
 REGIONAL DYNAMICS
Minsk Group,
OSCE
Independence Nagorno - Karabakh (Russia, US, France)

Self
determination Integrity of
Armenia Azerbaijan
of Armenians the territory
In the region

Iran Russia Turkey

= Primary actors = Official support = Main use = Mediation

= secondary actors = Conflict/ Hostility = Sell weapons = Humanitarian aid

 Agreement –
USA EXTERNAL PLAYERSS ISRAEL Humanitarian
truce
 Azerbaijan
warns Russia
UN
 INTERNATIONAL INITIATIVES

MINSK GP ROLE IN PRESENT CONFLICT

 Negotiation attempts failed
Co- Chaired- US, France  Doubt on Impartial role
& Russia
 Azerbaijan’s call for Turkey’s Inclusion
 Turkey, Iran & Russia- Alt option
Est in 1992, 04 mtgs

Org for Security & Coop in Europe

8 permt members MINSK GP

Framework for conflict

resolution

Obtain conclusion
agreement

Dply PKFs to promote

peace
 INDIAN PERSPECTIVE
INDIA –ARMENIA
● Friendship & Coop Treaty INSTC
1995
Baltic
● Armenia’s unequivocal sp on Sea
Kashmir
North
● Armenian Community in India Sea RUSSA
Moscow
● $40 mn def deal Mar 20-
SWATHI WLR
Black Sea Astrakhan
Baku

IRAN
Bandar-Abbas

INDIA AZERBAIJAN India

● Azerbaijan extended sp to Pak on Arabian Mumbai
Kashmir issue Bay of
Sea
Bengal
● Well est Indian Pharmaceutical
industry in Azerbaijan
International North-South Tpt
● GAIL MoU with SOCAR, ONGC Corridor
investment
● Constr of railway route – Gazvin
Rasht(Iran)- Astara

India’s interest lies in peaceful soln of the conflict

 PART IV
CRYSTAL GAZING
 FUTURE OF WAR
Scenario Outcome Effect Probability

Scenario I Successful Counter Attk  Republic of Artsakh may get Least Likely
by Armenian Force recog
 Restoration of damaged
property – challenge
 Proxy war by Azerbaijani

Scenario II Azerbaijani Forces  Territory under Republic of Less Likely

regain their claimed Artsakh will come under
territory Azerbaijani sovereignty
 Cont of Armenian population
difficult
 Ethnic cleansing

Scenario III Immediate ceasefire,  Azerbaijan will retain Most Likely

followed by peace talks captured territory
 Peace enforcement difficult
 LoC will get altered
 Proxy war continues
 FUTURE OF WAR

CONFLICT CONSOLIDATION
RESOLUTION

Settlement of Power
Humanitarian Regional cont
displaced Dynamics
Aid
population