Course Code: HUM204

Course Title: Psychology

Lecturer: Maica Mary

Lecture: 2
Department of Business Administration
Contents

1. The Monty Hall Problem

2. Need for psychological science
3.Hindsight Bias
4.Overconfidence
5.How Psychologist Ask Questions.
6.Approaches to Research
Is Psychology Common Sense?
Do you agree or disagree with each of these statements?
• Opposites attract
• We only use 10% of our brain
• Traumatic or emotional memories are often repressed

• The more people witness a crime, the greater the chance that
someone will intervene to help
• Hypnosis can be used as mind control
• Rewarding people always works to increase the rewarded behavior
Hindsight
Bias
• “Knew-it-all-along” phenomenon
• Many things seem obvious after the fact
• Examples:
• Will the Dolphins or 49ers win the Super Bowl? (Brigham,
1985)

• Other examples? In sports? Politics? Relationships?

Overconfidenc
e
• Tendency to have too much confidence in our knowledge and
accuracy of our answers

Anagrams How long would it take you

to unscramble each word in
WREAT WATER the left column? (Goranson,
1978)
ETYRN ENTRY

GRABE BARGE …Probably longer than you

think
Take home messages:

• Confidence does not always predict accuracy

• Just because something seems obvious doesn’t mean you

actually knew it before-hand
• We are biased information seekers

• So we need a better way of predicting, explaining, and

figuring things out
How do Psychologists Ask Questions?
by using the Scientific Method

• Steps of the scientific method:

1) Observe and describe a phenomenon

2) Form theories & hypotheses to explain
& predict
3) Test hypotheses and draw conclusions
4) Revise theories in light of results
5) Replicate (repeat) results*
Summary of the Scientific
Method
Research Methods