METHODOLOGY PoF Internal Corrosion 2

Probability of Failure (PoF)

• In PRBI, PoF was determined as per PIMS.

• The likelihood ranking in the Initial Assessment is from AA to E.
PoF Category Annual Failure Probability PoF Identification Description

E > 10⁻² Almost certain An event expected to happen more than once over the service life of the
pipeline.

D 10⁻³ to 10⁻² Likely An event expected to occur once during the lifetime of the component.

C 10⁻⁴ to 10⁻³ Possible An event that could occur during the pipeline service life.

B 10⁻⁵ to 10⁻⁴ Remotely likely to An event rarely expected to occur on the pipeline during its service life.
happen

A 10⁻⁶ to 10⁻⁵ Unlikely An event that is unexpected to occur during the pipeline service life

AA < 10⁻⁶ Certainly, Unlikely A credible event considered not likely to happen over the service life of the
pipeline.
 METHODOLOGY PoF Internal Corrosion 3

Probability of Failure (PoF)

Table 5-9 POF categories dependent on inspection outcome for internal corrosion
Inspection finding POF Description

Insignificant 1 None of the inspection defect population challenges the 50% target level of the current pipeline MAOP

Moderate 3 The most severe defect from the defect population that shall challenge the 50% target level of the current pipeline MAOP

Significant 5 The most severe defect from the defect population that shall challenge the 80% target level of the current pipeline MAOP

No inspection or blank 1 Time of " Inspection" is set equal to commissioning/installation date

*The current pipeline MAOP is defined from the governing pipeline design code for the considered pipeline.

Table 5-10 Years of operation for 1-unit increase in POF category for internal corrosion

Condition Monitoring Level

Corrosivity
Good Normal Poor

High 1 1 1

Medium 4 3 2

Low 7 5 3
 METHODOLOGY PoF Internal Corrosion 4
Probability of Failure (PoF)
Table 5-11 Oil and gas pipeline fluid corrosivity for internal corrosion
Typical fluid corrosive to linepipe material type
Designation Description of fluid
Carbon Steel Stainless Steel

Gas, Well Fluid Produced multi-phase fluid;primarily gas (plus condensate and water) H L

Gas, Semi-Processed Separated gas with residual content of water and condensate H L

Gas,Dry Processed gas (" export") L (L)

Oil, well Fluid Produced multi-phase fluid;primarily oil (plus gas and water) M L

Oil, Semi-Processed Separated oil with residual contents of water M L

Oil, Dry Processed oil ("export") L (L)

Condensate, Well Fluid Produced ,multi-phase fluid; primarily condensate (plus gas and water) M L

Condensate Semi-Processed Separated condensate with residual contents of water M L

Condensate,Dry Processed condensate ("export") L

Treated Seawater Filtered and dearated seawater, typically with biocide M L

Raw Seawater Filtered seawater, no deaeration or biocide (H) L

Produced Water Processed water produced from formation or condensate from gas M L
 METHODOLOGY PoF Internal Corrosion 5

Probability of Failure (PoF)

Table 5-12 Maintenance and monitoring level for internal corrosion

M & M Level Description

Maintenance and Monitoring activities carried out in access of the

G : Good
requirements of the current inspection and Maintenance plan

Maintenance and Monitoring activities carried out that have met the
N : Normal
requirements of the current inspection and Maintenance plan

Maintenance and Monitoring activities carried out that have not met the
P : Poor
requirements of the current inspection and Maintenance plan
 METHODOLOGY PoF External Corrosion 6
Offshore Pipeline systems

The probability category POF for the offshore pipeline based on the following information

● Outcome of last inspection, if any

● Time since last inspection, if any
● Abnormal anode depletion inspection, if any
● IC "Potential" reading, if any
● Operating temperature

The POF category, at the time of inspection, is determined based upon inspection finding of insignificant, Moderate or Significant level of observed corrosion
defects. This is summarized in Table 5-13 below.

Table 5-13 POF category dependent on inspection outcome for external corrosion

Inspection finding POF Description

In case no inspection result are available, POF
category is set equal to 1 at time of
Insignificant 1 None of the inspection defect population challenges the 50% target level of the current pipeline MAOP commissioning/installation of the line. The POF
increase by time due to potential growth of
corrosion defect. When corrosion is taking place in
The most severe defect from the defect population challenge the 50% target level of the current pipeline the splash zone, the corrosion rate is dependent
Moderate 3 upon the temperature of the riser surface, which is
MAOP
assumed to be equal to the operation temperature

The most severe defect from the defect population challenge the 80% target level of the current pipeline
Significant 5
MAOP

No inspection or blank 1 Time of " Inspection" is set equal to commissioning/installation date

 METHODOLOGY PoF External Corrosion 7

Table 5-14 Years of operation for 1 - unit increase in POF Category for external corrosion of risers

Inspection finding Year of unit increase in POF Operating temp < Year of unit increase in POF Operating temp < The number of years of operation
40 °C 40 °C resulting in an increase of step 1 in the
POF category for external corrosion is
given in Table 5-14, depending upon the
Insignificant 4 3 operating temperature and inspection
results from the last inspection. There
may be no corrosion for several years,but
Moderate 3 2 once corrosion is initiated, the defect can
develop at a high rate, ref/: OS-F101 page
30 section B600
Significant 2 1

No inspection or blank 3 2
 METHODOLOGY PoF External Corrosion 8
Table 5-15 POF Category dependent on anode depletion inspection outcome for external
corrosion of offshore pipelines

Inspection finding POF Description The POF is determined by the

methodology described above
Insignificant not used Little consumption which is mainly for the riser
splash zone. However if the
Moderate not used Normal consumption over several years anode depletion is abnormal the
line will be assigned with POF =
Insignificant 5 Abnormal or significant anode depletion; One or a few neighbour anodes fully depleted, or 5 in order to initiate an
severe depletion in a short period of time indicating an error in design or construction, or low assesment of the integrity of the
reading from impressed current potential survey.
line, and to evaluate the cause
of the anodr depletion.
No inspection or not used Futher, if the IC "Potential"
blank reading are reported outside
given borders, the pipeline will
Table 5-16 POF Category dependent on IC "potential" reading be assessed as POF=5.
The POF category at the time of
Inspection POF Description inspection for anode depletion is
finding given in table 5-15 and for IC
potential measurement in Table
Low 5 Low potential reading, below -850mV 5-16
Normal not used Normal IC recording, within -850mV to -1200mV

High 5 High potential recording, exceeding -1200mV

No recording or not used

blank
 METHODOLOGY PoF External Corrosion 9

Onshore Pipeline Section

It is recommended that the onshore section of the pipeline to be assessed as a separate pipeline section. This will highlight the difference between the inspection methods and corresponding number and severity
of defects observed within the inspection results.

Onshore lines:
● Outcomes of last inspection, if any
● Time since last inspection, if any
● Protection system (impressed current)
● Pipeline age (calculated from installation)
● Bunned or not

The POF category at time of inspection is determined in Table 5-17 based upon the inspection finding of insignificant, Moderate or Significant level of observed corrosion defects.

Table 5-17 POF Category dependent on inspection outcome for external corrosion of
onshore pipelines
Inspection finding POF Description In case no inspection results are available, POF
category is set aqual to 1 at time of
Insignificant 1 None of the inspection defect population challanges the 50% target level of the current pipeline MAOP commissioning/Installation of the line. The POF
increase by time due to potential growth of
Moderate 3 The most severe defect from the defect population challenges the 50% target level of the current pipeline corrosion defects. There may be no corrosion for
MAOP several years,but once corrosion is initiated, the
defect can develop at a high rate. The rate should
Significant 5 The most severe defefct from the defect population challenge the 80% target level of the current pipeline be reduced by the use of an adequate CP system
MAOP with impressed current.
If the recorded potentials are outside given
No inspection or Time of "Inspection" is set equal to commissioning/Installation date boundaries, the calculated POF value at the time of
1
blank inspection is adjusted according as shown in Table
5-18
 METHODOLOGY PoF External Corrosion 10

Table 5-18 POF category dependent on IC readings

Inspection finding POF Description

Low 5 Low potential reading, below -850mV

Normal Not altered Normal IC recording within -850mV to -1,200mV

High 5 High potential recording, exceeding -1,200mV

No inspection or blank Not Used

Table 5-19 Years of operations for 1-unit increase in POF category for
external corrosion of onshore pipelines

Condition Year of unit increase in POF with Year of unit increase in POF Without
Impressed Current Impressed Current

Age<10 years 2 1

10 years < Age<30 6 3

years

Age>30 4 2
 METHODOLOGY PoF Internal Erosion 11
Table 5-20 POF category dependent on inspection outcomes for internal erosion

Inspection finding POF Description

Insignificant 1 None of the inspection defect population challenges the 50% target level of the current pipeline MAOP

Moderate 3 The most severe defect from the defect population challenge the 50% target level of the current pipeline MAOP

Significant 5 The most severe defect from the defefct population challenge the 80% target level of the current pipeline MAOP

No inspection or blank 1 Time of " Inspection" is set equal to commissioning/installation date

Designation Description of fluid Presence of sand

METHODOLOGY
PoF Internal Erosion 12
Gas, Well Fluid Produced multi-phase fluid;primarily gas (plus condensate and water) Potential
Table 5-21 Potential presence of sand in Oil & Gas Pipeline Fluid
Gas, Semi- Separated gas with residual content of water and condensate No
Processed

Gas,Dry Processed gas (" export") No

Oil, well Fluid Produced multi-phase fluid;primarily oil (plus gas and water) Potential

Oil, Semi- Separated oil with residual contents of water Potential

Processed

Oil, Dry Processed oil ("export") No

Condensate, Well Produced ,multi-phase fluid; primarily condensate (plus gas and water) Potential
Fluid

Condensate Semi- Separated condensate with residual contents of water Potential

Processed

Condensate,Dry Processed condensate ("export") No

Treated Seawater Filtered and dearated seawater, typically with biocide No

Raw Seawater Filtered seawater, no deaeration or biocide No

 METHODOLOGY PoF Internal Erosion 13
Table 5-22 Years of operation for 1-unit increase in POF Category for internal erosion

Sand Velocity Year of unit increase in POF

V < 3 m/s 10 Year

3 m/s < V < 8 m/s 3 Year

V > 8 m/s 1 Year

Blank (unknown) 1 Year

METHODOLOGY CoF General 14

Consequences of Failure (CoF) People Consequence Ranking

COF Factor COF Identification Description

0 No injury No injury to personal

● The consequence divided into 4 areas : No loss of containment

I. People
1 Slight injury or health ● No treatment case first aid case
Insignificant effect ● Occupational ilness that result in noticeable discomfort, minor irritation or transient effects after
II. Environment exposure stops

III. Asset 2 Minor injury or health ● Medical Treatment case.

Minor effect ● Lost workday case or restricted work case, where the duration equals o less than 4 calendar days
IV. Reputation ●
●
Occupational illness with reversible health effects such as food poisoning and acute dermatitis
Positive biological/biological effect monitoring result without permanent effect to health.

● It was identified by a ranking of 0-5 and has been

3 Major injury or health ● Lost workday case or restricted work case, where the duration exceeds 4 calendar days.
Moderate effect Injury which results in Permanent Partial Disability.
used for each varying degree of consequence. ●
● Occupational illness with Disablity health effects which reulst in permanent partial disability such
as occupational noise induced hearing loss, chronic back disoder or pertitive strain injury.

4 Single fatality or ● Fatalities due to injury or occupational illness.

Major permanent total disability ● Injury which results in permanent total disability
● Occupational illness including cancer with irreversible health effect which result in permnent
total disability such as asbestosis, silicosis and heart or kidney failure due to chemical exposure.

5 Multiple fatalities or ● Fatalities due to injury or occupational illness.

Catasrophic permanent total disability ● Occupational illness including cancer with irreversible health effect which results in permanent
total disability such as total asbestosis, silicousis, and heart or kidney failure due to chemical
People consequence considers potential exposure.

personal injury or fatalities and is categorised

from 0-5 in table beside ●
●
Occurrence of multiple fatalities or permanent total disabilities caused by one single incident.
Occupational illness includng cancer to affected workers exposed to similar haard in the same operating unit.
METHODOLOGY CoF General 15
Consequence on Environment
❖ Environmental consequence is concerned with impact of various types of products releases to the environment.
❖ The amount and extent of release is dependent upon the type of fluid (wheter liquid only, multiphase flow or single phase gas).
❖ Multi phase and single phase gases have a much larger release rate as compared to single phase liquids only.

COF Factor COF Description COF Factor COF Description

Identification Identification

0 No impact No impact on the environment

No loss of 4 Major Release or non- compliance to regulatory limits which results in significant disruption of or impairment to beneficial
containment Major Adverse uses of the environment and/or to public receptors.
environmental Examples :
effect Oil spill reaching the local coastline causing disruption to major commercial fish farming and other water recreational
activities.
1 Slight Release (see note 1) equal to or below Tier 2 Material Release Treshold Quantities (see notes 2 and 3) not Surface water contamination causing domestic and commercial water supply disruption to regional population and
Insignificant Adverse resulting in consequences described in major 4-5. business effect activities over several days.
environmental Examples : Groundwater contamination from an underground tank of a petrol station affecting adjacent community drinking
effect ● Spill ≤1 bbl onto soil. Staining on unpaved ground or stressed vegetation observed. water well.
● Gaseous release of estimated 20 kg of ammonia into ambient air. Gaseous release of hydrogen sulphide at concentrations exceeding regulatory limits along the facility boundary
resulting in confirmed cases of community seeking medical treatment.

2 Minor ● Release above Tier 2 Material Release Treshold Quantities but equal to or below Tier 1 Material
Minor Adverse Reease Treshold Quantities (see notes 2 and 3( or
environmental ● Breach of prescribed company/other standard limits, if any;
effect Not resulting in consequences describes in major 4-5 5 Massive Release or non-compliance to regulatory limits over designated areas of ecological importance or an extensive area
Examples : Catastrophic Adverse which results in :
● Spill of 6 bbl diesel onto soil. staining on unpaved ground or stressed vegetation observed. enviornmental significant loss of beneficial uses of the environment and/or loss of public receptors; or
● Gaseous release of estimated 2kg of hydrogen sulfide into ambient air. effect Loss of rare, endengered, threatened and endemic species.
● Not meeting company limit for boundary noise, or air emission, or effluent discharge. Examples :
Crude oil spill affecting a large area of sensitive mangrove with loss of protected species or critical habitable in that
affect area.
Contamination of surface water causing loss of sole water supply source for community and business activity over
extended period or inability to sustain beneficial use of environment.
3 Moderate Release above Tier Material Release Treshold Quantities (see notes 2 and #) or Gaeous release of natural gas adn explosion, resulting in confirmed cases of death in adjacent residential community.
Moderate Adverse ● Non- compliance to regulatory limits (see note 4)’
environmental Not resulting in consequences described in major 4-5.
effect Examples :
● Oil leakage > 7 bbl resulting in soil and groundwater contamination that does not affect beneficial
uses of soil and groundwater such environ-as potable water supply.
● Spill of condensate of estimated 8 bbl into adjacent stream resulting in fish kill, but no significant Notes :
distruption or loss to beneficial uses of the stream, or loss of sensitivity or protected species. 1. Release - Includes gaseous release into the atmosphere, and/or spill onto or into soil and/or water.
● Gaseous release of estimated 1,000 kg of natural gas that does not cause disruption or loss of 2. Material Release Treshold Quantities per API Recommended Practice 754
beneficial uses of the environment or public receptors. 3. Use barrels (bbl) for liquids, or kilograms (kg) for gases or solids. Conversion between barrels and liters for liquids : 1 bbl = 159 liters
● Breach ofregulatory limit boundary noise, or air emission, or effluent discharge. 4. Non-compliance to regulatory standards/limits, with respect to but not limited to air emission, effluent discharge, boundary noise, objectionable odor,
heat or vibration. Where host country regulatory requirements are not available, and then company standards/limits will apply, if available.

Environment Consequence Ranking

METHODOLOGY CoF General 16
Consequence on Asset

❖ Asset consequence is concerned with repair costs and production losses. The relative throughput has been used as the basis for qualification of the business consequences.
❖ The “Relative production throughput” has been expressed in terms of a percentage, to address the level of operational criticality for each pipeline at this initial stage. The values for the percentage
throughput given are for guidance only and can be adjusted following the input from operations.

COF Factor COF Identification Description

0 No leak No direct damage cost

No loss of containment

1 Slight Damage Direct damage cost less than USD25,000

Insignificant

2 Minor Damage Direct damage cost from USD25,000 to USD 100,000

Minor

3 Local Damage Direct damage cost from USD 100,001 to 1,000,000

Moderate

4 Major Damage Direct damage cost from USD 1,000,001 to USD 10,000,000
Major

5 Extensive Damage Direct damage more than USD 10,000,000*

Catastrophic

● Based on benchmarking with IOC. Newfield specifies > USD 2M, Shell and CCPS specify > USD 10M. while EPMI uses > USD 30M.

Asset Consequence Ranking

METHODOLOGY CoF General 17
Consequence on Reputation

❖ Reputation consequence is defined in table below in line with PCSB HSE Risk Matrix (HSERM).

COF Factor COF Identification Description

0 No impact No impact on reputation

No loss of containment

1 Slight consequence Slight Consequences

Insignificant ● Public awareness may exist, but there is no publis concern

2 Limited consequence Limited consequence

Minor Local public concern or complaints
Local media and/or local political attention with potentially negative
Consequence for company operations

3 Considerable consequence Considerable consequence

Moderate Regional public concern.Extensive adverse attention in local considerable media
National media and/or regional political attention resulting in negative consequence on company operations
Adverse stance of local government and/or action groups

4 Major national consequence National consequence

Major National public concern. Extensive adverse attention in the major national media
Regional/national policies with potentially restrictive measures asn/or consequence on grant of licenses **
Mobilization of pressure or action groups

5 Major international International Consequences

Catastrophic consequence International public attention : Extensive adverse attention in international media
National/international policies with potentially severe consequence on access to new areas, grants of licences ** and/or tax legislation

** Withdraw of existing license or rejection of new license to operate

Reputation Consequence Ranking

METHODOLOGY SUMMARY OF CoF 18

SUMMARY OF CoF

People • Due to flammable and toxic release event

• Production loss in terms of loss of revenue

• Labor cost
Asset Consequences • Repair or replacement cost including temporary repair cost
• Miscellaneous cost

• Environment consequences analysis shall be performed qualitatively based

Environment Consequences on operator’ experience and engineering assessment.

Reputation Consequences • Shall be performed in qualitatively based on operator’s experience.

 METHODOLOGY RISK 19

RISK
• Risk generated by semi qualitative analysis via PIMS RBI:
Risk = Probability of Failure (PoF) x Consequence of Failure (CoF)
• PoF appraise the likelihood for corrosion to take place based on corrosion source, severity of corrosion factors and effectiveness of corrosion mitigation in
place.
• CoF appraises the impact to people, Environment, Asset and company Reputation,
• The results of the RBI analysis can be conveniently presented in a 6 X 6 risk matrix with the probability category of AA to E and the consequence category
from 0 to 5.

Table: PRBI Risk Matrix (Based on PIMS RBI April 2008

(MY ALL X X 08 007 REV3)
METHODOLOGY Inspection Priority 20

Inspection Priority
• The risk assessment matrix used for the risk scoring exercise is presented in Figure 7.2. Scores have been identified
for each risk box as shown.

Table : Inspection Interval Distribution (Based on PIMS RBI April 2008 ( MY ALL X X 08 007 Rev 3)
 METHODOLOGY Inspection Planning 21

Inspection Planning
● The result of the RBI analysis is the development of the inspection
reference plan (IRP) which on overall basis satisfies the risk acceptance
criteria and at the same time minimises the economic risk for the operator
of the facility.
● This IRP should include specification of pipeline sections and locations
to inspect, inspection methods to use, time to next inspection or time
intervals between the inspections as well as the coverage assumed at the
different inspections.
● The results of the inspections are used to update the PoF of a hazard and
estimate the remnant life and thus modify the future IRP in accordance
with the condition of the inspected pipeline.