The revision of Ambo Town structure plan

Demographic and Housing study

The first draft presentation for in house jury

prepared by : Gashaw Gelana
Content of the study

I. Introduction
II. Methodology
III. Finding of the study
o Demographic study
o Housing study
Introduction

• Ambo town is among the largest and Zonal Town in the region

• The Town located in the Oromia region, West shoe zone

• The study was conducted as the part of the revision of Town structure

plan which has undertaken by the cooperated effort of OUPI, Ambo

town administration and Ambo University

• The study is mainly part of demographic and Housing study for the

revision of Ambo town structure plan

• This
Statement of the problem
o The has been growing over years in physical and spatial size

o A substantial demographic change and population growth has observed

o It is must that the need Housing have to increase overtime

o On the other hand, the designing of public policy and development

projects in the area of housing and other social services also need to be

forecasted for the next planning period

o Therefore, this study will try to asses the demographic and housing

condition in ambo town as part of the structure plan revision project.

Objectives of the study

• The overall objective of the study is to assess the Demographic and

Housing service provision in Ambo Town

• It may have the following specific objectives:

 Study the population size and characteristic of the town

 Asses the housing condition and land provision for the housing

 Identify the main problems and gap in housing provision

 Forecasting the future need for housing service

Scope of the study

• This study is trying to asses the Demographic condition and Housing

service provision in the Ambo city.

• Those scope of social service is broadly categorized and limited to;

 Demographic study

 Housing service

• The spatial scope of the study is Ambo city.

• However, if applicable to their local conditions other urban centres of

Oromia Regional state also may possibly use it.

 Source of Data
o The major sources of data for the study come from both the primary and
secondary sources of data.
o Primary data: Collected from different government and non government
origination, as well as local community and community representatives
o secondary data: Different literature from books, urban planning policies,
guidelines and standards and Government reports were used as the
secondary data to support and triangulate the primary data.
o Different similar projects were also reviewed to gain the experience at international
and national level.

o In addition to the aforementioned data sources this study utilized the

spatial base map to analyze the physical condition and distribution of
population settlement in the Town
Method of data collection

• Questioner-Different questioners were distributed to governmental

and non government organization exist at different administration

level.

• Key informant Interview – with different organization representatives

and government officials

• Focus group discussion- With different groups like religion leaders

and government sector officers and representatives

• Public consultation- Different public meeting with Town community

and Town officials

• Observation- Site visitation and participatory observation

Method of Analysis

• The techniques of analysis used in this study are largely descriptive statistics

• Different data Analyzing tools like SPSS and Microsoft excel used to analyze

the quantities data in the study

• The information obtained through the qualitative data collection mechanism

like interview, focus group discussion and public meeting were analyzed

through qualitative thematic analyze and used to support and triangulate

those quantitative data.

• The physical condition and distribution of Housing unit were analyzed

through map by using GIS software.

ing study Demographic study
using function and type • Population size
using condition and facility • Population characteristic
using legal status • Population dynamic
using demand and supply • Population projection
d provision
using need, gap and projection
Scope of the study
 Demographic study

• The demographic condition of the town assessed by using the CSA and

other population survey and projection

• The rural ( expansion) area population were also estimated by the CSA

report and data from Government officials

• The currant population of the town is indicating both the town and

rural (expansion) areas included in this plan

• The current population number used as the base number to forecast the

town population number for the planning period (10 years) by using

three population growth variants based on the past population growth

Population growth trend

104265

88190

70900

57000
48171

27636
17325

1984
1994
2007
2011
2014
Population size

Male= 55133 o The total house hold of Ambo town

is 26372
o The average family size is 3.8
o Less than the regional 3.9
Female=51132
 This might show the existence of
many single and newly married
couple in the area
Total
104265
Sex ratio

o 53133 Male and 51132 Female

o The General sex ratio is 96.2 Male: 53133

 96 male for each 100 female

o The number of female population suppose to

be higher in normal context.

o The case is opposite for Ambo town Female:

o This indicates
51132

 High in migration of male population

 High out migration of female

 Age Structure: Broad Age Category

o A large proportion of intermediate age group

o Population age median found to be 25

 Large number of youth population

64+
2.8% o Relatively big proportion of children under 15
0-14
o Appropriate attention for
28.1%
 Provision of different social service like
15-64
69.2% education and sport and recreation

 Job creation activities should consider this

figure
 
90 Dependency ratio
77.7 80.5
80 oThe overall dependency ratio is 33.7

70
oPotential advantage
60
Existence of large productive manpower
50
 Less dependency or welfare burden
40
32.5 33.7 o Potential challenge
30
High unemployment rate and related
20
4
10 social problems
1.6
0 oAppropriate attention for
Old age
Young
DR OADR
Town levelDR National Level Absorbing man power in economic

activity by creating wide job opportunity

Religion composition
65.2

27.5

3.7 2.9 0.3 0.5

Orthodox Protestant Wakefata Islam Chatolic Others

• Orthodox, protestant and Wakefata were the major religions and small
proportion of Catholic and other religion followers

• The proposal for the cemetery and worshipping place should consider
this religion composition
Ethnic composition
Oromo
Amhara
9.3% 1.7%
2.8% Gurage
2%
29.7%
Tigre
Silte
Others

66%

o The implication of ethnic composition

 Proposal for the cultural Center, school and educating language

 The media of instruction in KG and elementary schools

 Population dynamic
o There is high fertility rate (16 CBR)

 Society awareness about family planning

 The accessibility of health care (family
planning CBR= 16
CMR=10.9
o High crude death rate and infant mortality rate

 CDR is 10.9 and IMR is 67

 Socio economic status of society NMR=87.9

 Basic social service provision

o Very high migration
 60% of total town residents were Migrants
 The increasing trend of migration rate
 Impact on future town population projection Population dynamic
  Migration pull and push factors

services like education provision

• Access of social • Lack of social service
• Urban live style opportunities
expectation • Low level of job
opportunities • Lack of farmland
• Better job Push factors
Pull factors
Measure will be taken
• Improve social services and infrastructure
access in the nearby towns and villages
• Create alternative off farm activities
• Creating job opportunity and attention for
rural development
Population Projection

 High
 Medium
Variants
 Low

 Fertility
Assumptions  Mortality
 Migration

Components
 Current population
 Base Year population
 Growth rate
 Time
• Gro
wth
rate Lo
:4.4 w
• Gro var
Pop ian
wth
ulat t
rate
ion Me
:5.4
No. diu
• Gro m
• 162
Pop vari
wth
562
ulat ant
rate
ion
:
No. High
6.4 vari
• 179 ant
Pop
732
ulat Cont…
ion
 NB

• It is better to use higher population growth variant because of

 The past years population growth rate trend

 Special attention from the regional and federal government

 The high migration rate to the town from surrounding regional

population

 The development of big education and other social institutions

like private collage, public universities and etc.

 The possible investment expansion in the town

• Projected household size will be 52824

• Nearly after 10.5 years the population of Ambo town will be double
2.5 Housing service

 General description
• There were about 26372 households and 14885 (residence)
housing units in this town
• Average household to Housing unit ratio is found to be 177.2
• On average each housing unit has 1.5 rooms (the housing unit in
the area have no enough rooms
• 4.7 individuals were living in one housing unit on average.

• The figure indicates the high degree of over crowdedness in a room or

housing unit and shortage of enough housing unit and residence
rooms in housing units.
Housing units Distribution by Purpose
Residential Mixed Commercial
Worshipping Others

5%

1%

71%
12%

11%
Housing units Distribution by Ownership
Private Kebele NGO,FBO & CBO
Cooporative Others

5%
2%
2%

76%

15%
Housing condition
 Housing status

• 86.7% of wall construction material was from Wood &Mud

• 63.7% of HU floor was unbolt mud and only 33% was covered by
cement

• 96.3% of HU roof was covered by Corrugated Iron

• 26.5% HU have no Ceiling and 42.2% of housing units have

medabaria Ceiling

 Suggestion

 The need for upgrading the housing standards

 Attention for the socioeconomic development in the town

 The need for demolishing some of old housing units.

 The legal status of housing unit
 Prevalence

o Town administration reported the existence of high illegal housing

unit in the town

o 14560 illegal housing settlement at this time

o The number was found very high comparing both with the other towns

and cities in the regions by all evaluation criteria

o Moreover, even the threat can be very high for future if it is not

addressed by the concerned body on the time

 Cause of illegal house prevalence

o Poor control and management of land

o Prevalence of illegal land transferring though illegal brokers

o Pitiable compensation for local farmers during land transferring

 Less benefit for local farmers

 Force them another alternative for that matter

 Cont..

 Consequence of illegal settlement

o Loose of income by town administration

o Unplanned and illegal town expansion

o High cost for demolition and loose of asset by illegal plot owner

o Open the way for corruption and bad governance

o Challenge plan implementation

 Suggested solution

 Appropriate land control and management

 Timely and sufficient housing provision

 Clear boundary demarcation for the town and land transferring

 Smooth and participatory land transferring process

 Fair compensation payment for local farmers

Housing demand

 There is high housing demand in this town due to

o No land prevision since long time

o High number of housing backlog

o High population growth and

o High migration to the town

o Influence from surrounding cities and towns

Housing demand projection
 Assuming one house hold need one house unit
 Current housing backlogs
 Current house hold number=26372
 Existing housing unit (residence) =14885
 Current housing backlogs= 11487
 Future requirement (2019-2029)
 Projected household size=52824
 New house requirement= 26452
 Replacement house unit( those exists at bad condition)
 housing unit existed at bad condition= 1721 (mostly kebele houses)
 Illegal settlement (housing unit)
 Need special analysis though
 39660 new housing unit is needed up to the end of planning period
Land provision mechanisms

• There are several land provision mechanism to fulfill the housing

demand of the town. They

 Lease computation

 Cooperative houses

 Condominium

 Real state investment

General housing problems in the town
Recommendations