6

The Origin from Nature

When the Lord created the world and people to live in it - an enterprise which,
according to modern science, took a very long time – I could well imagine that
he reasoned with himself as follows:

“If I make everything predictable, these human beings, whom I have endowed
with pretty good brains, will undoubtedly learn to predict everything,

and they will thereupon have no motive to do anything at all,

because they will recognize that the future is totally determined and cannot be
influenced by any human action.
 The Origin from Nature

On the other hand, if I make everything unpredictable,

they will gradually discover that there is no rational basis for any decision
whatsoever and, as in the first case, they will thereupon have no motive to do
anything at all.

Neither scheme would make sense.

I must therefore create a mixture of the two.

Let some things be predictable and let others be unpredictable.

They will then, amongst many other things, have the very important task of
finding out which is which.
Six sigma
Orientation
expectations
•Know Six Sigma
•Awareness with respect to origin
and history of Six Sigma.
•The utility and benefits
•Introduction to Six Sigma as
methodology
•The Six Sigma organization
What is Six Sigma?
• It is a methodology for continuous improvement
• It is a methodology for creating products/ processes that perform at high
standards
• It is a set of statistical and other quality tools arranged in unique way
• It is a way of knowing where you are and where you could be!
• It is a Quality Philosophy and a management technique

Six Sigma is not:

• A standard
• A certification
• Another metric like percentage

© TreMyn 2004
Two Meanings of Sigma


• The term “sigma” is used to designate the distribution or spread about the
mean (average) of any process or procedure.

• For a process, the sigma capability (z-value) is a metric that indicates how well
that process is performing. The higher the sigma capability, the better. Sigma
capability measures the capability of the process to produce defect-free
outputs. A defect is anything that results in customer dissatisfaction.

© TreMyn 2004
Path to Six Sigma

6 Sigma 3.4 Defects

Sigma levels and

Defects per million
opportunities
(DPMO)
5 Sigma 233 Defects

4 Sigma 6,210 Defects

3 Sigma 66,807 Defects

2 Sigma 308,537 Defects

© TreMyn 2004
What it means to be @ Six Sigma
Is 99% (3.8) good enough? 99.99966% Good – At 6

20,000 lost mails per hour 7 lost mails per hour

Unsafe drinking water almost 15 One minute of unsafe drinking

minutes each day water every seven months

5,000 incorrect surgical 1.7 incorrect surgical operations

operations per week per week

2 short or long landings at most One short or long landing at major

major airports daily airports every five years

200,000 wrong drug prescriptions 68 wrong drug prescriptions each

each year year

Example quoted from GE Book of Knowledge - copyright GE

© TreMyn 2004
Origin of Six Sigma

Motorola
Motorola
the
the company
company that
that invented
invented Six
Six Sigma
Sigma

• The term “Six Sigma” was coined by Bill Smith, an engineer with Motorola

• Late 1970s - Motorola started experimenting with problem solving through

statistical analysis

• 1987 - Motorola officially launched it’s Six Sigma program

© TreMyn 2004
The Growth of Six Sigma

GE
GE
the
the company
company that
that perfected
perfected Six
Six Sigma
Sigma

• Jack Welch launched Six Sigma at GE in Jan,1996

• 1998/99 - Green Belt exam certification became the criteria for management
promotions

• 2002/03 - Green Belt certification became the criteria for promotion to

management roles

© TreMyn 2004
The Growth of Six Sigma

The GE model for process improvements

Define Measure Analyze Improve Control

Combination of change management & statistical analysis

© TreMyn 2004
The Growth of Six Sigma

© TreMyn 2004
Three Methodologies of Six Sigma

BPMS
BPMS
Business
BusinessProcess
ProcessManagement
ManagementSystem
System

DMAIC
DMAIC
Six
SixSigma
SigmaImprovement
ImprovementMethodology
Methodology

DMADOV
DMADOV
Creating
Creatingnew
newprocess
processwhich
whichwill
willperform
perform@
@Six
SixSigma
Sigma

© TreMyn 2004
 BPMS
BPMS
Business
Business Process
Process Management
Management System
System

© TreMyn 2004
The Need of BPMS

• To understand the process; it’s mission, flow and scope

• To know the customers and their expectations

• To identify, monitor and improve correct performance measures for the

process

© TreMyn 2004
The Methodology

Map process MSA, DCP, Service

steps, identify indicators and excellence and
input/ output monitors process
measures excellence

Define Process Identify Improvement

Map Process VOC and VOP Build PMSDevelop Dashboards
Mission Opportunities

Define purpose Identify Critical Visual

of the process, to Quality and representation
its goal and its Critical to of performance
boundaries process

The DMAIC
cycle
© TreMyn 2004
 DMAIC
DMAIC
Six
Six Sigma
Sigma Improvement
Improvement Methodology
Methodology

© TreMyn 2004
What is DMAIC ?

• A logical and structured approach to problem solving and process improvement

• An iterative process (continuous improvement)

• A quality tool with focus on change management

E = Q x A
Effectiveness Quality Acceptance
Improvement

© TreMyn 2004
The Approach

Practical
Problem

Statistical
Problem

Statistical
Solution

Practical
Solution

© TreMyn 2004
Methodology

D Identify and state the practical problem

Define

Validate the practical problem by collecting data

M
Measure
Convert the practical problem to a statistical one, define
A statistical goal and identify potential statistical solution
Analyze

I Confirm and test the statistical solution

Improve

C Convert the statistical solution to a practical solution

Control
Define

D VoC - Who wants the project and why ?

Define

M The scope of project / improvement

Measure

A Key team members / resources for the project

Analyze

I
Critical milestones and stakeholder review

D
Improve

C
Control Budget allocation
Measure

D Ensure measurement system reliability

Define
- Is tool used to measure the output variable flawed ?
- Do all operators interpret the tool reading in the same way ?
M
Measure

A Prepare data collection plan

Analyze - How many data points do you need to collect ?
- How many days do you need to collect data for ?
I - What is the sampling strategy ?
Improve - Who will collect data and how will data get stored ?

M
- What could the potential drivers of variation be ?

C
Control Collect data
Analyze

D Understand statistical problem

Define

M
Measure Baseline current process capability

A
Analyze
Define statistical improvement goal
I
Improve

C
Control Identify drivers of variation (significant factors) A
Analyze – Identify Drivers of Variation
Root Cause Analysis (fish bone)

• A brainstorming tool that helps define and display major causes, sub causes and
root causes that influence a process

• Visualize the potential relationship between causes which may be creating

problems or defects

Primary Cause
Secondary Cause

Backbone Problem

Root Cause
A
Analyze – Identify Drivers of Variation
Control – Impact Matrix

• A visual tool that helps in separating the vital few from the trivial many

Control

Vital Few Cost Ineffective

High Control – High Impact Low Control – High Impact
Impact

Cost Ineffective
High Control – Low Impact
Trivial Many
Low Control – Low Impact A
Analyze – Identify Drivers of Variation
Pareto Chart

• Pareto principle states that disproportionately large percentage of defects are

caused due to relatively fewer factors (generally, 80% defects are caused by 20%
factors)
35 100%
30
80%
25
20 60%
15 40%
10
20%
5

A
0 0%
L K A F B C G R D

Frequency Cumulative Frequency

Analyze – Identify Drivers of Variation
Process Map Analysis

• Visually highlights hand off points / working relationships between people,

processes and organizations

• Helps identify rework loops and non value add steps

Customer Process A Process B Vendor

Customer Process A Process B Vendor

A
Analyze – Identify Drivers of Variation
Hypothesis Testing

• A statistical tool used to validate if two samples are different or whether a

sample belongs to a given population

Null Hypothesis (Ho) is the statement of the status quo

Alternate Hypothesis (Ha) is the statement of difference

Homogeneity of One way ANOVA

Variance Moods Median

Chi-Square Regression
A
Improve

D Map improved process

Define

M
Measure

Pilot solution
A
Analyze

I
Improve

C
Control
I
Identify operating tolerance on significant factors
Control

D
Ensure measurement system reliability for
Define significant factors
- Is tool used to measure the input / process variables flawed ?
- Do all operators interpret the tool reading in the same way ?
M
Measure
Improved process capability
A
Analyze

I
Improve Sustenance Plan

C
Control
- Statistical Process Control
- Mistake Proofing
- Control Plan
C
Control – Sustenance Plan
Control Plan

• Have the new operating procedures and standards been documented ?

• What Statistical Process Control (SPC) tools will be used to monitor the process
performance ?

• Who will review the performance of the output variable and significant factors
on closure of the project and how frequently ?

• What is the corrective action or reaction plan if any of the factors were to be
out of control ?

C
Six
Six Sigma
Sigma Organization
Organization

© TreMyn 2004
Six Sigma - Three Dimensions
Customer Process A Process B Vendor
Customer Process A Process B Vendor

Define Measure Analyze Improve Control

Driven by
customer
needs
Process Map Analysis
LSL US
L
Methodology
Led by
Senior
Mgmt
••••••••••
Upper/Lower
specification
• •
••• •
•
•••••••
••••••
limits
Organization Tools
•
Regression

35 100%
30
80%
25
20 60%
15 40%
10
20%
5

Process variation 0 0%

Enabled by quality
L K A F B C G R D

team.
Frequency Cumulative Frequency

Pareto Chart
The Quality Team

Master Black Belt --Thought

ThoughtLeadership
Leadership
--Expert
Experton
onSix
SixSigma
Sigma
--Mentor
MentorGreen
Greenand
andBlack
BlackBelts
Belts

-- Backbone
Backboneof ofSix
SixSigma
SigmaOrg
Org
Black Belt Black Belt -- Mentor
MentorGreen
GreenBelts
Belts
--Full
Fulltime
timeresource
resource
--Deployed
Deployedto tocomplex
complexoror“high
“high
risk”
risk”projects
projects
Green Belt
Green Belt
--Part
Parttime
timeor
orfull
fulltime
timeresource
resource
--Deployed
Deployedto toless
lesscomplex
complexprojects
projects
Green Belt
ininareas
areasof
offunctional
functionalexpertise
expertise
Six Sigma – Career Option!
• Basic - Six Sigma Awareness
• Green Belt Projects
Green Belt (GB) • Participate in Black Belt Projects
• Assist business functions with day to day
activities
• Mentor/Train Green Belts
• Black Belt Projects
Black Belt (BB) • Change Agents
• Work along with the business owners

• Mentor/ Train Black Belts

• Run Strategic projects
Master Black Belt (MBB)
• More Strategic than tactical role

Highly paid!
Work like a Consultant!
Huge demand in the industry!

Overall…A high flying Career!!

Understanding Variation to understand 6 Sigma

Variation is inherent to a process……

 Understanding Variation
2
X X–X (X-X)
1 130 –20 400
2 166 16 256
3 178 28 784
4 131 –19 361
n
5 140 –10 100
X
Sample Mean i
6 125 –25 625
X= i =1

8
127 –23 529
n
145 –5 25
9 110 –40 1600
n
10 184 34 1156
 (X - X )
2

Sample i
11 161 11 121
Standard Deviation s= i 1

12 194 44 1936
n 1
13 171 21 441
14 125 –25 625
15 163 13 169 n

 (X - X )
2

Sum 2250 9128 i

n
150  (X - X )
2
Mean
i
i 1
652
S2
n 1
S1 25.53
n

 (X - X )
2

i
i 1

n 1
 Understanding Variation

If we take the height of all the people of India and draw a distribution
Of frequencies it will tend to follow a normal distribution
 Understanding Variation

Mean
X-bar
 Understanding Variation

Mean
X-bar LSL
USL

LSL and USL are those specification limits beyond which your product
doesn’t have a salable value in the market
 Understanding Variation

Mean
X-bar USL
LSL

T
Cp = T/6σ
Cpk = {(Mean - LSL)/3σ ,(USL - Mean)/3σ }
 Understanding Variation

34.13% 34.13%

13.60% 13.60%
2.14% 2.14%

0.13% 0.13%

-3s -2s -1s X +1s +2s +3s

68.26%

95.46%

99.73%

SIGMA
68.26% Fall Within +\- 1 Sigma
95.46% Fall Within +\- 2 Sigma
99.73% Fall Within +\- 3 Sigma
 Understanding Variation

y
1SD= 68% DATA

2SD = 95% DATA

3SD = 99%DATA

0
x
 Understanding Variation

Common vs. Special Cause

Type of Variation Characteristics

Characteristics

Always Present
Common Cause Expected
Predictable
Normal

Not Always Present

Special Cause Unexpected
Unpredictable
Not Normal
Has a surprise element
 Understanding Variation
• 2 short or long landings at almost all major airports each day

• Unsafe drinking water almost 15 minutes each day

• No electricity for almost 7 hours each month

• 20000 lost articles of mail per hour

• 5000 incorrect surgical operations per week

• 50 Newborn Babies Dropped At Birth By Doctors Each Day

• 200000 wrong drug prescriptions each year

Can you believe, all above correspond to a

performance level of 99%!
 Understanding Variation
If We Accepted The Goal Of 99.9% Quality

• Then We Would Have…

• One Hour Of Unsafe Drinking Water Every Month
• Two Unsafe Plane Landings Per Day At O’Hare International
Airport
In Chicago
• 16,000 Pieces Of Mail Lost By The U.S. Postal Service Every
Hour
• 500 Incorrect Surgical Operations Each Week
• 50 Newborn Babies Dropped At Birth By Doctors Each Day
• 22,000 Checks Deducted From The Wrong Bank Accounts Each
Hour
• 32,000 Missed Heartbeats Per Person, Per Year
 Understanding Variation

Sigma Rating PPM

2 308,537
3 66,807
4 6,210
5 233
6 3.4
Process Defects per
Capability Million Opportunities
 The Sigma scale of measure is perfectly correlated to such
characteristics as defects-per-unit, parts-per-million
defective, and the probability of a failure/error.
 Understanding Variation

Higher σ = less variation

= fewer defects
= better performance

6 σ process

Lower Upper Specification Limit

Specification (USL)
Limit
(LSL)
 Understanding Variation

Process Width

Cp = Specification
width
Process Width

Process variability
SPECIFICATION WIDTH
If the variability is well within the specified width then the process is capable
 3-Sigma VS 6-Sigma Process
In every process it is observed that 1.5 Sigma long term drift takes place

LSL USL LSL 1.5 USL

1.5
3- 6-
= 99.73% = 99.99966%

-6 -5 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 -6 -5 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Z- Scale 66,807 DPMO 3.4 DPMO
Z- Scale
3-Sigma Process 6-Sigma Process
 Understanding Variation

Sweet Fruit – 6
Design for Six Sigma (DFSS) DFSS
Process Entitlement

Bulk of Fruit – 4 to 5
Process Improvement Six
Sigma Tools
DMAIC

Low Hanging Fruit – 3 to 4

Ground Fruit – Up to 2
Logic and Intuition +
Basic Quality Tools
 Kano Model
Satisfaction
+
Delighters
Innovation One-Dimensional
Competitive Priority

Dysfunctional Functional

Must Be
Critical Priority

–
Dissatisfaction
 Taguchi Model
Cost

Performance
 Six Sigma

Customer Happy

Six sigma is about reducing variations in a process

 Methodology

The methodology:
DMAIC
(define, measure, analyse, improve, control)
methodology to root out and eliminate the causes of defects
 Methodology

Charter Data Collection Plan Stratification Map Analysis C&E

Business Project Definitions:

Case Scope
– Units
Problem
Statement
Milestones – Defects
– Opportunity
Goal Roles
Statement – Process Sigma Root Cause
Analysis
Data Display Tools
S I P O C
CPM Tree

Process 
Scatter Plots Regression DOE

Solution Cost/Benefit Analysis Monitoring Standardizing

Summary

Pilot
Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4 Wk 5 Wk 6 Wk 7 Wk 8 Wk 9 Wk 10 Wk 11 Wk 12

A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I Documenting Response Plan
J
 Different Faces
The Different Faces

PDCA 7 STEPS “DMAIC”

Plan 1 Charter/Theme Define

2 Data Collection Measure

3 Root Cause Analyze

Do 4 Solution Improve
Planning And
Implementation

Check 5 Confirming
Solution Works

6 Standardization Control

Act 7 Reflect Next

Steps
 Define

Deliverables

Define Measure Analyze Improve Control

Define The Customer, Their Requirements, The

Team Charter And The Core Business Process
• Team Charter Documented And Reviewed With
Champion
• Customer Requirements Derived And Documented
• Validated High Level Process Map Completed
 Measure

Deliverables

Define Measure Analyze Improve Control

Measure The Core Business Process Performance

• Identified Key Measures
• Developed A Data Collection Plan For The Process
• Executed The Plan And Document Results
• Process Variation Displayed With Appropriate Charts
And Graphs
• Calculated Baseline Sigma Performance
 Analyse

Deliverables

Define Measure Analyze Improve Control

Analyze (The Data And Map) To Determine Root

Causes/Opportunities
• Complete Detailed Process Map For At Least
One Subprocess
• Identify Process Streamlining Opportunities
• Identify, Verify And Quantify Root Causes
• Establish Improvement Targets
• Quantify Opportunity
 Improve

Deliverables

Define Measure Analyze Improve Control

Generate, Select, Design And Implement Improvements

• Solution Design Developed And Documented
• Solution Validated And Cost/Benefit Proposal Presented
To Champion
• Solutions Tested On A Small Scale Or Pilot Program
• Implementation Plan Developed And Executed
 Control

Deliverables

Define Measure Analyze Improve Control

Institutionalize The Improvement And Implement

Ongoing Monitoring
• Developed, Documented And Implemented An Ongoing
Process/Monitoring Plan
• Standardized The Process
• Procedures Documented
• Response Plan Developed And Displayed