THREE SECRETS OF GOOD

DECISION MAKING

COURAGE TO BE RATIONAL,
2:247 And their prophet said unto those
elders: [237] "Behold, now God has raised up
Taloot to be your king." They said: "How can he
have dominion over us when we have a better
claim to dominion than he, and he has not
[even] been endowed with abundant wealth?"
[The prophet] replied: "Behold, God has exalted
(istafa) him above you, and endowed him
abundantly with knowledge and bodily
perfection. And God bestows His dominion upon
whom He wills: for God is infinite, all-knowing."
FEAR THE FEAR ONLY
The courage to be rational 12/L
 COGNITIVE CONFLICT
• It is the state of having inconsistent thoughts, beliefs,
or attitudes, especially as relating to behavioral
decisions and attitude change.
• Amount of Uncertainty about consequences of
various alternatives and importance of those
consequences. To express in equation:
Cognitive Conflict=Importance x Uncertainty (if
either of them is zero then no CC)
• CC plays important role in successful Decision Making
 COGNITIVE CONFLICT
• Too high
• Too low
• Moderate
 COGNITIVE CONFLICT
• If uncertainty is too low- creative thinking 15
• If importance is too low- emotional
engagement (time, responsibility, effect us)
• If uncertainty is too high- external memory,
heuristics or decomposition
• If importance is too high- distance ourselves,
relax deadlines
• Process Orientation- (can reduce/increase both)
• What are the reasons of too high cognitive
conflict. How can you overcome them?
Secret one- courage to be rational
• Hurdles to courage to be rational
– Defensive avoidance- 22
– Escalating commitment
Secret one- courage to be rational
• Hurdles to courage to be rational
– Defensive avoidance- 22
When people are required to make major decisions, defensive avoidance is
probably the most pervasive defective pattern as well as most difficult to
prevent or correct. Examples of defensive avoidance (lack of rationality)
– Deny importance of a danger
– Shifting responsibility-reduce importance
– Procrastination-reduce importance
– Bolstering- reduce uncertaininty
– Seeking social support for beliefs
– Avoiding falsifiability
– Seeking supporting ideas
– Reacting with emotionality when challenged
Secret one- courage to be rational
• Hurdles to courage to be rational
– Defensive avoidance- 22
Test for the courage to be rational is to ask
yourself would I be willing to commit to and
actually follow through on whichever of the
alternatives the analysis indicates is the best.
Secret one- courage to be rational
• Hurdles to courage to be rational
– Escalating commitment- unwillingness to admit
that initial decision was wrong. Also called sunk
cost effect. Can avoid by:
• Reducing importance
• Discuss with a person who has no investment
• View decision from competitor’s perspective
Secret one- courage to be rational
• Test of Courage to be Rational is willingness
to put our believes or values to test
Secret one- courage to be rational
• How to Avoid Irrationality.
– Optimum level of cognitive conflict
• Reduce /increase importance
• Reduce/increase uncertainty
– Increase Hope. Hope means the belief that a rational,
unbiased approach to decision making is likely to result
in the best outcome. Hope is important for creative
people. It will be justifiable if we have good problem
solving skills, adequate resources and similar problems
have yielded to rational approaches in past. Finally
practice will help to have hope.
Secret one- courage to be rational
• Correct Attitude for Expert Decision Making
– we don’t have to make decisions by ourselves
– We don’t have to be right on the first try
– We don’t have to be exactly right even in the end
– We don’t have to be able to think everything at once
– We can learn from our mistakes
– Openness in decision making, commitment in
decision implementation
 17
RAMEELA IZZAT
8/2/2012
PAKISTAN ZINDABAD

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