WORLD

INDICES
ANALYSIS USED HISTORIC DATA UP TO END OF
MARCH 2023
RELEASE TIME: APRIL 2023

MARCH 2023
 OVERVIEW- MAIN INDICES HISTORY

The global crude steel production reached 290 million tons for 2023, as of
February. The global production declined by 2.0% from January 2023 to
Last 1 month Last Year February 2023, reaching 142.4 million tons, also the production declined by
1.0% in February 2023 compared to February 2022. The APAC region (Asia &
Steel (rebars)* -1% - 22 % Oceania) produced 106.6 million tons of steel in February 2023, up by 3.0%
compared to February 2022. Rising energy costs remains the key issue of the
Copper -2% - 14 %
European steel industry. The EU’s steel production was around 10.5 million
Aluminum -6% - 36 % tons in February 2023, down by 14.3% month-on-month basis and declined by
12.6% on year-on-year basis, with the producers being cautious over high
Brent -5% - 33 % operational costs.
World Containers Index* -2% - 79 %
There is a significant decrease in steel rebars internationally of 22%. The same
Ordinary Portland Cement* 0% -2% applies for all the commodities listed in comparison with March 2022.
Especially for World Container Index (WCI) the decrease is 79%. The sharp
MGO** -4% - 19 % increases in commodities due to the war in Ukraine and Covid- 19 have been
corrected during the second semester of 2022 and the first Q of 2023.
VLSFO** -6% - 37 %

* Global Average
**2 ports average: Fujairah & Rotterdam
 OVERVIEW- MAIN INDICES FORECAST

Global steel prices (free-on-board, China) are set to stabilise in calendar 2023 on-year, after
falling over 40% to $570-590 per tonne in December 2022 from the early-April 2022 peaks of
$1,000 per tonne on tepid steel demand. Following the global trend, domestic steel prices
Next 2 months Next 6 months are expected to soften only a minimal 2-4% on-year (for flat steel) in fiscal 2024, after seeing
a decline of over 30% last December 2022 from the historical highs of April 2022.
Steel (rebars)* +4% +2%
The outlook for the global economy has slightly improved since the WTO’s most recent trade
Copper -2% +1% forecast was issued in October 2022 but the pace of trade expansion in 2023 is still expected
Aluminum +1% +4% to be subpar, weighed down by the ongoing war in Ukraine, stubbornly high inflation, tighter
monetary policy and financial uncertainty. Trade growth is expected to slow to 1.7% in 2023
Brent +8% + 11 % following slump in fourth quarter of 2022.
World Containers Index* 0% +2% The war in Ukraine continues to put a strain on supply chains, pushing up commodity prices.
Ordinary Portland Cement* 0% +1% The war in Ukraine and related sanctions on Russia have disrupted both countries’ trade
logistics. Port connectivity has been cut, air space is closed, and rail transit is slowed down.
MGO** +5% + 15 % Since Russia and Ukraine are top exporters for several commodities (oil, natural gas, wheat,
aluminum, palladium, nickel, iron, etc.), the war steadily results in shortages and price hikes.
VLSFO** +9% + 21 %

All listed commodities are expected to increase their pricing up to September of 2023. The
biggest increase concerns Brent oil and marine fuels as the USA increase their inventories.

* Global Average
**2 ports average: Fujairah & Rotterdam
***Disclaimer: no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained in the present report .
 CONSTRUCTION IN MIDDLE EAST & NORTH
AFRICA

March 2023 Vs March 2022

PRICING PER SAND REBAR CEMENT CONCRETE READY MIX ELECTRIC
COUNTRY BLOCK CONCRETE CABLE
KSA - 4.5 % - 27.1 % + 1.3 % + 2.1 % + 2.1 % - 0.5 %
UAE - 1.5 % - 15.1 % + 2.9 % + 1.8 % + 4.1 % + 1.5 %
EGYPT - 2.1 % - 9.2 % 0% + 0.9 % - 0.3 % - 2.3 %
QATAR + 0.5 % - 4.5 % + 1.5 % + 2 .9 % + 2.5 % - 0.9 %
MOROCCO - 1.5 % - 15.2 % + 10.2 % - 0.6 % + 2.9 % - 2.1 %
 GLOBAL INDEX OF STEEL: HISTORY & FORECAST
End of March 2023 percentage (%) historical change
1-month || 6-months || 12-months
Flat Products Composite:
+ 10 % || + 14 % || - 22 %
STEEL PRODUCTS: 12 MONTHS HISTORY & 6 Long Products Composite:
MONTHS FORECAST 0 % || - 9 % || - 20 %
1600 Sections & Beams:
1500 0 % || - 9 % || - 16 %
FORECAST
1400
Rebars:
1300 - 1 % || - 9 % || - 22 %
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700 End of March 2023 percentage (%) forecast change
600 1-month || 2-months || 6-months
-2
2
ar Apr
-2
2
-2
2
-2
2
ul
2 2
-2 g-2 p-2
2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
t-2 ov-2 ec-2 an-2 eb-2 ar-2 pr-2 ay-2 un-2 ul-2 ug-2 ep-2
3 Flat Products Composite:
ay Jun J u e c J
M M A S O N D J F M A M J A S + 6 % || + 6 % || - 5 %
FLAT LONG REBAR SECTIONS & BEAMS Long Products Composite:
+ 2 % || + 3 % || 0 %
Sections & Beams:
+ 1 % || + 2 % || - 1 %
Rebars:
+ 3 % || + 4 % || + 2 %
 GLOBAL INDEX OF STEEL - HISTORY

 Long product prices increased in Spain, this month, but they were stable to down in the other European countries surveyed. This resulted in
a reduction in our Europe average values for beams and bars, in March. The mills are carefully managing their output levels, due to their
lacklustre order books. Many distributors and processing companies report mediocre sales volumes and narrow profit margins, amid strong
market competition

 North American transaction values increased in March 2023. This follows the mills’ price increase announcements in response to rising
scrap costs. Import competition is limited, with overseas suppliers offering extended delivery lead times. Local mills report strong order
books. However, buyers comment that material remains readily available. Purchasing activity has potential for significant future increase in
due time as many companies continue to use their existing inventories to fulfil their requirements.

 In March 2023, long product prices denominated in local currencies increased in China. Mixed movements were recorded in Japan, South
Korea and Taiwan. However, the strengthening in the US dollar resulted in reductions in our Asia average figures.

 Steel coil prices in Western Europe increased in March 2023. The mills continue to raise their offer values, and buyers report few
opportunities to negotiate. Production capacity is being restarted, but this is expected to have minimal effect on the current supply
tightness in the immediate future. In late February 2023, Tata Steel declared force majeure on deliveries from its IJmuiden cold rolling mill,
in the Netherlands, following technical difficulties. This has added to existing supply tightness across the region. Consumption in most
sectors – particularly white goods and private construction – is lacklustre. Demand from the automotive industry is reasonable, but
volumes remain substantially below those recorded in the pre-Covid period.
 GLOBAL INDEX OF STEEL - FORECAST

 MEPS predicts that world average flat product prices will increase in the short term.

 Delivery lead times at mills in Western countries are extended. Several technical problems have
occurred at European producers, while North American steelmakers are maintaining their capacity
utilisation at only 75 percent. Nonetheless, steel distributors are purchasing cautiously, amid
elevated prices and concerns about weakening end-user demand.

 A downward price correction is forecast in the second half of 2023. Increased supply is anticipated
in North America and Europe, from both domestic and import sources. Moreover, reduced raw
material costs are envisaged, at that time.

 Only modest price movements are envisaged over the forecast period, in line with seasonal
fluctuations in supply and demand, and mill input costs.

 A softening in long product prices is predicted in the second half of this year.

 A cost-based price increase is anticipated in the first quarter of 2024.

 EGYPT STEEL PRODUCTS - 12 MONTHS HISTORY & 6 MONTHS FORECAST (1/2)
Egypt- Rebars: Prices in Egypt increased by 0.70% in the month of March 2023, as
compared to the previous month. For instance, in March 2023, Ezz Steel set its new rebar
price at USD 870 per ton. The demand for rebar is expected to increase in the coming
month in the country. For instance, in March 2023, IGI Developments of Egypt allocated
USD 32 million for construction projects in 2023. According to the company, it delivered
around 1,000 residential units in 2022 and intends to double its output in 2023. Such
investments are expected to propel the demand for steel rebar over the forecasted
period.
Egypt- Sections & Beams: According to the Cairo Chamber of Commerce’s
Building Materials Division, the steel supply crunch has pushed prices up by
EGP 2,000 (USD 64.72) to reach EGP 29-30,000 (USD 970.84) in 2023. The
shortage arose due to some manufacturers lowering supply in the market to
focus on exporting steel. Redevelopment activities in the country are
expected to generate demand for steel sections. For instance, in February
2023, Egypt's Ministry of Planning and Local Development announced a
reconstruction initiative for 82 towns and 18 cities to minimize migration
from rural areas to urban centers. The initiative seeks to offer adequate
housing for residents of the country's most underdeveloped areas, boost
employment prospects, and promote investments in real estate in those
areas. It also plans to organize and oversee construction activities in the
included areas and designate which land can be built on and which must
remain undeveloped for agricultural purposes.
 EGYPT STEEL PRODUCTS - 12 MONTHS HISTORY & 6 MONTHS FORECAST (2/2)
Egypt- Flat products: In the last of February 2023, Egypt signed three
binding framework agreements with U.S.-based General Motors,
Netherlands-based Stellantis, and Japan-based Nissan to set up
automobile production plants in the country. These three companies
plan to invest USD 145 million over the next three years in the
development of local automobile production facilities in Egypt with a
capacity of manufacturing 60,000 to 70,000 vehicles annually. The
growth of the automotive industry in the country is expected to
benefit the steel industry in Egypt in the coming years.
Egypt- Long: Development activities in real estate in Egypt are
expected to surge the demand for steel products and their
consumption in the country. For instance, the Egypt-based Lozan
Urban Development is planning to carry out a project worth USD 490
million for developing offices, hotel apartments, and shops in West
Cairo over an area of 65 acres.
 STEEL PRODUCTS IN EGYPT IN EGP

FORECAST

PRODUCTS 12 MONTHS HISTORY 1 MONTH HISTORY 2 MONTHS FORECAST 6 MONTHS FORECAST

REBAR + 64 % -1% 0% 0%
1 $= 31 EGP LONG + 42 % -3% +1% +2%
FLAT + 33 % -2% 0% +1%
SECTIONS & BEAMS + 20 % -3% 0% 0%
CARBON STEEL PIPE + 95 % -3% -1% +2%
STAINLESS STEEL PIPE + 57 % -3% +1% +3%
STEEL SCRAP + 73 % -1% +1% 0%
 UAE STEEL PRODUCTS - 12 MONTHS HISTORY & 6 MONTHS FORECAST (1/2)
The UAE steel rebar: Steel rebar prices in the UAE increased by 1.14% in the month of
March 2023, as compared to the previous month. Increasing investments in residential
construction projects in the country are expected to propel the demand for rebar in the
coming months. For instance, the construction of Expo Valley in Expo City began in March
2023 and is expected to be completed by 2026. The project consists of 165 units of villas.
UAE- Sections & Beams: The scarcity of Iranian-origin billet in the UAE marketplace and Emirates Steel
Arkan's more significant sourcing of scrap from the local market are driving up scrap and billet prices.
ESA is buying HMS 80:20 scrap for AED 1,520/ ton (USD 414 shipped), the prevailing market price for
90:10 grade. Premium grade is presently priced in the UAE at AED 1,550-1,560/ton shipped. Small
manufacturers pay cash for scrap, whereas integrated businesses buy on credit. Induction furnace-
route billet prices have increased by AED 37/ton (USD 10) per week to USD 595-605/ton delivered
within the country. Iranian billet offers for March shipment range between USD 605 and 610 per ton
delivered. Buyers increased their target prices to USD 585-595/ton from USD 575-585/ton, but the
price increase preempted them. Buyers in the UAE are searching for alternative supply from Saudi
Arabia, as Iranian billet prices are unlikely to fall short due to Iran's new order by the government
prioritizing domestic sales. Khouzestan Steel of Iran is postponing the announcement of its billet export
contract results. It had set a goal price of USD 575/ton fob, but the highest bid was received at USD
568/ton fob. Established construction companies in the country are investing toward upgrading their
operations. For instance, in March 2023, Emirates Steel Arkan (ESA) announced its plans to invest in
various modifications and improvements to its steelmaking and rolling mill procedures. These include
installing a dust control system, improving billet length, and using dolomite ladles to lower refractory
expenses. In addition, the organization intends to minimize the use of gas for the thermal furnace at
the rolling mill 1 and upgrade mill platform gearboxes for increased productivity and reliability.
 UAE STEEL PRODUCTS - 12 MONTHS HISTORY & 6 MONTHS FORECAST (2/2)
UAE- Flat products: The prices of flat steel products witnessed increase;
however, their demand was sluggish ahead of the Islamic month of
Ramadan. The demand is expected to rise over the coming months, as
the construction & infrastructure industry in UAE is expected to remain
resilient over the short term.
UAE- Long: The ongoing and upcoming construction and infrastructure
development projects in the UAE are anticipated to drive the demand
for long steel products in the country. For instance, Proscape LLC plans
to complete the development of infrastructures and roads for three
clusters at the DAMAC Lagoons master community in Dubai land after
receiving a contract worth USD 37 million from DAMAC Properties.
Deyaar, a developer and real estate firm, announced the appointment of
main contractor for its luxury project Tria, a residential tower project
located in Dubai Silicon Oasis (DSO) in the UAE. The project is expected
to be completed in 2025 and is valued at USD 140.23 million.
 KSA STEEL PRODUCTS - 12 MONTHS HISTORY & 6 MONTHS FORECAST (1/2)
Saudi Arabian rebar prices: The prices of steel rebar increased in the month of March
2022, as compared to February 2023. The majority of tier-three mills were selling rebar
ex-works for USD 700–730 per ton in March 2023. The demand for rebar in the country is
expected to increase in the coming months owing to several upcoming major construction
projects in line with Saudi Vision 2030.
KSA- Sections & Beams: New construction projects are expected to propel
the demand for steel sections in KSA. For instance, in March 2023, SMS group
GmbH, a German-based plant manufacturer, announced that it signed a
purchase order with SULB, a Bahrain-based structural steel sections producer,
for the renewal of a 130 mt electricity-arc furnace (EAF) and the upgrading of
a four-strand continuing casting facility/machinery for the manufacturing of
billets and beam blanks. The company's objective for the project is to
enhance its security, efficiency, and productivity. The project is scheduled to
begin production next year. SULB has two manufacturing facilities, one of the
2 mentioned facilities is in the Kingdom of Bahrain and another one in Jubail,
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Jubail's facility is a light-to-medium steel section
factory.
 KSA STEEL PRODUCTS - 12 MONTHS HISTORY & 6 MONTHS FORECAST (2/2)

KSA- Long Products: In March 2023, the real estate developer of Saudi Arabia,
namely, ROSHN, which is backed by its public investment fund (PIF), announced the
KSA- Flat: In the 3rd week of March, prices of flat steel products, imported by
execution of eight contracts totaling USD 2.13 billion to build facilities and
Saudi Arabia were largely stable as buyers waited for the market to slow down
infrastructures throughout the country. The Government of Saudi Arabia is planning
during the holy month of Ramadan. However, market observed positive trend,
the development of Green Downtown in Riyadh. The project is planned for an area of
as some of the distributors increased their inventory levels. The Ministry of
over 19 square kilometers that will have its internal transport system, a 400-meter-
Industry and Natural Resources of Saudi Arabia has secured funds for a new
high-cue-shaped skyscraper, green areas, walking and cycling paths, a museum, a
electric automotive battery metals plant as well as a new steel plate mill. The
technology and design university, and a multipurpose immersive theater. Such
goal of the Ministry is to fund nine midstream mineral and metal projects in the
ongoing projects in the country are expected to fuel the demand for long steel
country, including a USD 4.0 billion steel plate mill complex to cater to the
products in Saudi Arabia in the coming months.
requirements of the oil & gas, shipbuilding, defense, and construction industries
and a flat steel complex for providing products to the machinery & equipment,
food packaging, and automotive industries.
 ORDINARY PORTLAND CEMENT (OPC) GLOBALLY* - HISTORY & FORECAST

KSA: As per the data released in March 2023, Saudi Arabia's cement exports increased by 67.4% on an annual
basis to 638,000 tons in January 2023. In contrast, local sales in January 2023 were 4.29 million, a decrease of
OPC: 12 MONTHS HISTORY & 6 11.4% from the previous year and 2.5% from the December 2022. Clinker stocks were 35.1 million tons in
MONTHS FORECAST January 2023, up by 1% annually but remained flat month over month. Cement industry's overall utilization rate
decreased from 70.5% in January 2022 to 68.6% in January 2023. Saudi Arabia's cement exports decreased by
8.6% year over year to 682,000 tons in February 2023.
112
110 Egypt: The General Authority for the Economic Zone of the Suez Canal has given Abu Dhabi Ports Group (ADPG)
108 a contract to run two cement terminals at Port Said and Arish ports. ADPG proposes 30,000 tons of new cement
FORECAST
106 storage capability at the Port Said cement terminal as well as 60,000t of supplementary cement storage
capacity at the Arish cement terminal. This is anticipated to increase the total cement dispatch capability of the
104
two Mediterranean ports to over 2 Mt per year. Egypt's cement capacity is expected to be doubled when both
102 projects are completed in late 2023, according to ADPG. Researchers at the University of Cairo have developed
100 bio-cement with improved strength and durability compared to ordinary Portland cement (OPC) by using
98 nanoparticles from agricultural waste.
96
UAE: The ongoing & upcoming infrastructure development has helped in keeping the consumption levels of
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
-2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 cement steady in the region. For instance, a 59-story luxury tower with seven podiums is under development in
ar Apr ay Jun Jul ug S ep Oct ov Dec Jan F eb ar Apr ay Jun Jul ug S ep
M M A N M M A Dubai. For the project, Sobha Realty and Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC) signed a contract. This is
expected to be Sobha's first venture into the Jumeirah Lakes Towers district.

Qatar: Cement prices in Qatar remained constant in February 2023 as compared to January 2023. Stagnation in
the mega projects is keeping the prices constant. According to various sources, the stagnation in the market is
expected to continue till Eid, which is in April 2023. However, according to the Qatar’s 2050 Transport Plan, the
country is expected to allocate 22 new projects worth of USD 2.7 billion.
GLOBAL* HISTORY GLOBAL* FORECAST
Morocco: The cement prices are witnessing a declining trend in prices on account of weakening demand in the
12 MONTHS 6 MONTHS 1 MONTH 1 MONTH 2 MONTHS 6 MONTHS country. For instance, as per the Cement Association, APC, the cement deliveries declined in February 2023
compared to previous year by almost 11%. The companies such as LafargeHolcim and Ciments du Maroc
-2% +1% 0% 0% 0% +1% reported decline in sales volume in first two months of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022.

Europe: Cement prices in Europe were nearly constant in February 2023 as compared to March 2023. The
calamity in the Turkey and its near region caused supply shortage in the region, which pushed the price upside
in the first half of the month. However, in the second half, prices declined due to the low demand for cement in
the market. For instance, demand for cement decline by 2% in Spain in February 2023.
* GLOBAL AVERAGE OF: KSA-UAE-EGYPT-QATAR-MOROCCO-INDIA-CHINA-EUROPE
 NON-FERROUS METALS- COPPER
End of March 2023 percentage (%) historical change
1-months || 6-months || 12-months
- 2 % || + 14 % || - 14 %
End of March 2023 percentage (%) forecast change
1-month || 2-months || 6-months
- 1 % || - 2 % || + 1 %
Prices witnessed a decline of 14.1% y-o-y in January. However, there was a 1.7%
decline in March 2023, as compared to February 2023. An increase in the dollar
dented buying appetite for copper in March 2023. Also, turmoil in the banking
sector generated short term uncertainty, as investors worried that the turmoil
would restrict metal demand and economic growth.
Copper is going to play a significant role in decarbonization, as the replacement
of fossil fuels with renewable energy sources would require vast amounts of
copper to distribute electricity over long distances. Copper is also going to play
a crucial role in the electric vehicle transition. Owing to the above-mentioned
reasons, the European Union declared copper as a critical raw material under
Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) in March 2023. This declaration will ensure
easier access to capital and speedier permits for copper mining and recycling
projects.
Copper is expected to have a bullish trend in the long-term owing to its growing
demand in the green transition, resulting in companies expanding their mining
capacities. For instance, in March 2023, Rio Tinto commenced underground
production of copper from the Oyu Tolgoi mine in the Gobi Desert in Mongolia.
The mine is anticipated to become the fourth-largest copper mine in the world
by 2030.
 NON-FERROUS METALS ALUMINUM
End of March 2023 percentage (%) historical
change
1-month || 6-months || 12-months

- 6 % || + 2 % || - 36 %

End of March 2023 percentage (%) forecast change

1-month || 2-months || 6-months
+ 1 % || + 1 % || + 4 %

The roll-back of the zero-COVID policy by China at the end of 2022 resulted in a spike in aluminum demand which was short-lived and led to a price decline in March 2023 compared to the initial two
months of 2023. The prices declined due to the lackluster demand for aluminum globally due to the slow demand for aluminum in China. As the demand decreased, a rise in inventories was seen,
ultimately leading to a decline in prices in March 2023. As a result, the global aluminum output was reduced to balance out the demand and supply in the market. China has lowered its production output
due to subdued domestic and worldwide demand for the commodity. The decrease in output by the largest producer and consumer of aluminum has affected the global market. The power cuts in China
at the end of February and the beginning of March affected its production levels. This led to supply shortages, directly impacting prices, and pushing them upwards temporarily. The energy crisis in 2022
affected the commodity market significantly, leading to a decline in aluminum prices across the globe. The demand recovered in the European countries in the second half of 2022 as energy prices
significantly reduced. There have been production cuts since the Russia-Ukraine war, which were seen to return to normal at the start of 2023 when Aluminum Dunkerque in France resumed its idled
aluminum-producing capacity. It was seen as a development that other aluminum producers were assumed to follow, which would increase production.

However, owing to the high energy costs across Europe the capacity reductions continued in the region in March 2023. The demand for aluminum is expected to rise in the coming months on the back of
future orders in 2023 that have been reported. Despite the fall in energy prices, the production margins have not yet improved, causing producers to cut production. The aluminum prices have decreased
recently, yet prices are three times higher compared to the aluminum prices two years ago. In February 2023, the U.S. government announced the imposition of a 200% tariff on aluminum imports from
Russia to mitigate the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on their domestic industries, especially the aluminum industry and national security. This crucial step by the U.S. is set to impact global
aluminum production, supply, and prices. The demand for aluminum will be flat throughout the first quarter of 2023 due to reduced demand from China and lower production. Another factor has been
the producers shutting down their manufacturing facilities to adopt green initiatives and transition to a clean energy source, which will be a crucial for the aluminum smelting industry. Monetary
regulations by countries have led to a reduction in the demand and production of aluminum, which has further affected global trade.
 BUNKERS- Oil Brent Barrel 12 Months History & 6 Months Forecast

End of March 2023 percentage (%) historical

change
1-month || 6-months || 12-months

- 5 % || - 12 % || - 33 %

End of March 2023 percentage (%) forecast change

1-month || 2-months || 6-months
+ 5 % || + 8 % || + 11%

Brent crude was priced at an average of around USD 79.32 per barrel in March 2023. Oil prices increased slightly at the start of the month before sharply declining in the second
and third week of the month. The price of crude oil increased during the first week of the month owing to The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics which indicated an increase of
3.1% in labor productivity driving demand for crude oil. The price of crude oil fell by 17.3% from its high in the month. The decline in price was primarily caused by the failure of
the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in the U.S. which led to panic between investors. The failure of the 16th largest bank in the U.S. trigger a major risk-aversion wave
which crashed the price of crude oil. OPEC increased its projection for China’s crude oil demand in 2023. OPEC projects an increased demand of 2.32 million barrels per day
(bpd) from China in 2023. The positive news was overlooked due to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank which led to little change in the price of Brent crude. The Russian fuel
export fell by 20% in February 2023 owing to the sanctions imposed by the EU and other G7 countries. The Russian government announced that it will continue 500,000 barrel
per day crude oil production cut till June 2023. The production cut was in response to the price cap implemented by the EU. The Federal Reserve raised the short-term interest
rate by 25 basis points despite the failure of the Silicon Valley Bank. The increased interest rates instilled confidence in investors which led to an increase in the price of Brent
crude in the fourth week of the month. The government of the U.S increased its Crude oil inventories in the fourth week of the month with a 3.262 million barrel build. The
increase in crude oil inventories further led to a recovery on the price of Brent crude.
 MARINE FUEL – MGO ROTTERDAM & FUJAIRAH

MARINE FUEL MGO: 12 MONTHS HISTORY & 6 MGO- MARINE GAS OIL
MONTHS FORECAST
Fujairah: End of March 2023 percentage (%)
1700.00
historical change
1500.00 FORECAST
1-month || 6-months || 12-months
1300.00
1100.00
900.00
- 4 % || - 15 % || - 9 %
700.00
500.00
Fujairah: End of March 2023 percentage (%) forecast change
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1-month || 2-months || 6-months
-2 -2 y-2 n-2 -2 g-2 p-2 -2 v-2 c-2 n-2 b-2 r-2 pr-2 ay-2 un-2 ul-2 ug-2 ep-2
ar Apr a J u J ul u e O ct o e J a e a A J J + 3 % || + 6 % || + 16 %
M M A S N D F M M A S

FUJAIRAH ROTTERDAM
Rotterdam: End of March 2023 percentage (%) historical
Marine Gas Oil prices fell in March 2023 with prices decreasing by 4.84% and 9.23% in Fujairah port and Rotterdam port, change
respectively, before slightly recovering later in the third and fourth week of the month. The decline in crude oil prices owing 1-month || 6-months || 12-months
to the fear of recession and the failure of multiple U.S. banks further led to a decline in MGO prices. Relatively consistent
demand for marine gas oil from shipping companies coupled with the lack of major development in the MGO market
stabilized the prices of marine gas oil in January 2023.
- 3 % || - 24 % || - 30 %

Although the prices of LNG increased in the month, the prices of all the major bunker fuels fell. This is expected to increase Rotterdam: End of March 2023 percentage (%)
the sale of MGO-fueled bunkers and increase the price of marine gas oil in the long term. Decreasing crude oil prices owing forecast change
to the price cap implemented by the EU and G7 countries coupled with the decreasing confidence among investors led to a
decrease in the price of MGO in March. DNV reported 22 orders and confirmations for vessels that run on methanol fuel.
1-month || 2-months || 6-months
Currently, there are a total of 106 confirmed orders for methanol-powered ships, out of which 25 are already operational. + 2 % || + 4 % || + 12 %
Among these 25, 22 belong to the oil/chemical segment. The increase in interest for methanol-fueled vessels is expected to
reduce the price of MGO in the long term.

As of the third week of March 2023, the weekly average underpricing premium rose moderately in Rotterdam and Singapore
to USD 94 and USD 101, respectively, but decreased in Houston to USD 54. Fujairah remained the only overvalued port – plus
USD 155. In general, the MDI changes in this fuel segment were relatively minor compared to the last week.
 MARINE FUEL - VLSFO ROTTERDAM & FUJAIRAH

VLSFO (very low sulfur fuel oil)

MARINE FUEL VLSFO: 12 MONTHS HISTORY & 6 Fujairah: End of March 2023 percentage (%) historical change
MONTHS FORECAST 1-month || 6-months || 12-months
1200
- 8 % || - 17 % || - 36 %
1100
1000
FORECAST Fujairah: End of March 2023 percentage (%) forecast change
900
1-month || 2-months || 6-months
800
+ 8 % || + 11 % || + 20 %
700
600
500
400 Rotterdam: End of March 2023 percentage (%) historical change
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
a r-2 pr-2 ay-2 un-2 ul-2 ug-2 ep-2 ct-2 ov-2 ec-2 an-2 eb-2 ar-2 pr-2 ay-2 un-2 ul-2 ug-2 ep-2 1-month || 6-months || 12-months
M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S

Fujairah Rotterdam - 4 % || - 16 % || - 37 %

Rotterdam: End of March 2023 percentage (%) forecast change

1-month || 2-months || 6-months
+ 5 % || + 8 % || + 22 %

The price of VLSFO fell in March 2023 owing to the panic in the market caused by the banking crisis in the U.S. and Europe. The price of VLSFO increased in the first week of the month before
sharply declining in the second and third weeks of the month. Kuwait announced the opening of its Al–Zour refinery, which plans to produce VLSFO for marine vessels. The refinery stated that it
planned to produce 7 million mt/year of VLSFO specifically for the export market. The newly constructed refinery is expected to significantly boost the region's bunker production and may result
in lower VLSFO prices at Fujairah compared to other global bunkering hubs. Over 45% of the fuel oil output from the refinery is expected to be VLSFO with a viscosity of 380 CST. Data released on
17 March indicated that despite significant supply arrivals this month, the refining margins for Very Low Sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) in Asia showed a slight increase for the week. The front- month
April margin for 0.5% VLSFO closed at USD 8.75 per barrel in Asia, which was up by 5 cents from the previous session, and with a 5% increase week-on-week. In the third week of the month, MDI
reported that in the VLSFO market, the ports of Rotterdam, Singapore, and Fujairah continued to be undervalued by USD 5, 15, and 21, respectively. However, the degree of undervaluation on a
weekly average has slightly decreased. On the other hand, Houston is the only port in this fuel segment that is overvalued with a value of USD 27, which has slightly increased. The price of VLSFO
showed a slight recovery in the fourth week after falling in the second and third weeks of March. The demand for increasing production from new refineries becoming operational, especially
from the Middle East and Southeast Asian markets, is expected to further decrease the price of VLSFO in the coming year.
 LOGISTICS- World Container Index (WCI) 1/2

The average composite index decreased by 2% from February 2023 to

touch USD 1845.0 YTD in March 2023. In the last week of March 2023,
freight rates for Shanghai-Rotterdam decreased by 42% to reach USD
1,490 per 40ft container compared to previous week. Furthermore, in the
last week of March, the spot freight rates on Shanghai-Genoa remained
unchanged, while Shanghai- Los Angeles, and Shanghai–New York dipped
by 1%, and 2% respectively. The decline in prices have majorly affected
leading to slowing down of maritime trade. Rising inflation in countries
and global recession fears has affected consumer expenditure, which
further led to limiting global trade and container usage.

The increase of manufacturing activities in China and across the globe

have resumed, however, there is very little impact on the declining world
container index. The impact of COVID-19 and East European geopolitical
conflict on world container index has flattened. The index is expected to
remain sluggish in coming months and likely increase couple of months
End of March percentage (%) historical change
later. The declining trade in February 2023 has been aggravated by the
slowdown of global trade in March 2023 due to warehouse overstocking,
1-month || 6-months || 12-months
reduction in consumer spending, and Lunar New Year holidays in Asia.
- 2 % || - 62 % || - 79 %
The trade between the U.S. and Asian countries have declined owing to
the cut down of imports by the U.S. from Asia.
End of March 2023 percentage (%) forecast change

1-month || 2-months || 6-months

0 % || 0 % || + 2 %
LOGISTICS- World Container Index (WCI) 2/2
Glossary
Steel Rebar is mostly traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and London Metal Exchange. The standard future contract is 10 tons.
Steel is one of the world’s most important materials used in construction, cars and all sorts of machines and appliances. By far the
biggest producer of crude steel is China, followed by European Union, Japan, United States, India, Russia and South Korea.

Copper futures are widely traded on the London Metal Exchange (LME), at the COMEX and on the Multi-Commodity Exchange in
India. The standard contract is 25,000 lbs. Copper is the third most widely used metal in the world. Chile accounts for over one third of
world's copper production followed by China, Peru, United States, Australia, Indonesia, Zambia, Canada and Poland. The biggest
importers of copper are China, Japan, India, South Korea and Germany.

Aluminum futures are mostly traded on the London Metal Exchange (LME), the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) and the
Shanghai Futures Exchange. The standard future contract size is 5 tons. Aluminum is used widely in aerospace applications,
packaging, automobiles and railroad cars and as a construction material. The biggest producers of aluminum are: The Aluminum
Corporation of China (Chalco), Alcoa and Alumina Ltd, Rio Tinto from Australia, UC Rusal of Russia, Xinfa from China, Norsk
Hydro ASA from Norway and South 32 from Australia. China accounts for nearly 60 percent of global aluminum output. The biggest
resources of bauxites, the raw material for aluminum are located in Australia, China and Guinea.
Glossary
Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) is the most important cement type as it is widely used and all the research and tests on cement are
carried out on OPC in general. Ordinary portland cement is a cementing material obtained by fine grinding of portland clinkers with a
little amount of gypsum to adjust the setting time and prevent flash setting.

Brent Crude oil is a major benchmark price for purchases of oil worldwide. While Brent Crude oil is sourced from the North Sea the
oil production coming from Europe, Africa and the Middle East flowing West tends to be priced relative to this oil.

Drewry World Container Index is a composite of 40-foot ocean container freight rates on 8 major route to/from the US, Europe and
Asia as assessed by Drewry Maritime Research. This is primarily used as a benchmark for 40-foot ocean container spot rates across the
various trade lanes that it represents.