CHAPTER 4

Designing Studies

4.1
Samples and Surveys

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition

Starnes, Tabor, Yates, Moore

Bedford Freeman Worth Publishers

 Samples and Surveys
Learning Objectives
After this section, you should be able to:

 IDENTIFY the population and sample in a statistical study.

 IDENTIFY voluntary response samples and convenience samples.
EXPLAIN how these sampling methods can lead to bias.
 DESCRIBE how to obtain a random sample using slips of paper,
technology, or a table of random digits.
 DISTINGUISH a simple random sample from a stratified random sample
or cluster sample. Give the advantages and disadvantages of each
sampling method.
 EXPLAIN how undercoverage, nonresponse, question wording, and other
aspects of a sample survey can lead to bias.

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 2

 1. Collecting 2. Organizing

STATISTICS

3. Analyzing 4. Making
meaningful
The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition
decisions 3
 STATISTICS
$ 4. Making meaningful decisions

2. Organizing
3. Analyzing

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition

Starnes, Tabor, Yates, Moore

$ 1. Collecting Bedford Freeman Worth Publishers

 Population, Census, and Sample
Pgg229
#2, #3
The population in a statistical study is the entire group of
individuals we want information about.

A census collects data from every individual in the population.

A sample is a subset of individuals in the population from which

we actually collect data.

Population Collect data from a

representative Sample...
Sample
Make an Inference
about the Population.

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 5

 The Idea of a Sample Survey
We often draw conclusions about a whole population on the basis of a sample.
Choosing a sample from a large, varied population is not that easy.

Choosing a Sample
Step 1: Define the population we want to describe.
Step 2: Say exactly what we want to measure.
A “sample survey” is a study that uses an organized plan to
choose a sample that represents some specific population.
Step 3: Decide how to choose a sample from the population.

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 6

 How to Sample Badly
Pgg230
#9
How can we choose a sample that we can trust to represent the
population? There are a number of different methods to select
samples.

Choosing individuals from the population who are easy to reach

results in a convenience sample.

Convenience samples often produce unrepresentative data…

why?

The design of a statistical study shows bias if it would

consistently underestimate or consistently overestimate the value
you want to know.

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 7

 How to Sample Badly
Pgg230
#10are
Convenience samples are almost guaranteed to show bias. So
voluntary response samples, in which people decide whether to join
the sample in response to an open invitation.

A voluntary response sample consists of people who choose

themselves by responding to a general invitation.

Voluntary response samples show bias because people with

strong opinions (often in the same direction) are most likely to
respond.

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 8

 How to Sample Badly

AP PRO TIP: When answering questions about sampling and bias

follow these steps:

1. Discuss how this specific sample of people is different from

the norm.
2. Tell what sample’s response (in the experiment, to the
survey, etc.) would be.
3. Tell whether this group response would lead to an
overestimate or underestimate of the statistic from your
survey/experiment.

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 9

 How to Sample Well: Simple Random Sampling

A sample chosen by chance rules out both favoritism by the sampler

and self-selection by respondents.

Random sampling involves using a chance process to determine

which members of a population are included in the sample.

A simple random sample (SRS) of size n is chosen in such a

way that every group of n individuals in the population has an
equal chance to be selected as the sample.

In practice, people use random numbers generated by a computer

or calculator to choose samples. If you don’t have technology
handy, you can use a table of random digits.

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 10

 Why Be Random?
• What is it about chance outcomes being random that makes
random selection seem fair? Two things:
– Nobody can guess the outcome before it happens.
– When we want things to be fair, usually some underlying
set of outcomes will be equally likely (although in many
games some combinations of outcomes are more likely
than others).

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 11

 Why Be Random? (cont.)

• Statisticians don’t think of randomness as the annoying

tendency of things to be unpredictable or haphazard.
• Chaos vs. Randomness
• Statisticians use randomness as a tool.
• But, truly random values are surprisingly hard to get…

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 12

 Was the 1970 Draft Lottery Random?

http://youtu.be/-p5X1FjyD_g?t=16s

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 13

 Hudson Anthony wins big at Hutchison
Volleyball Raffle, September 2015

- Hudson won 3 of 4 raffle prizes

- Bought tickets late that were thrown on
top of the pile
- Bucket wasn’t shaken
- Bought more tickets before each quarter
drawing and threw them on top of the pile

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 14

 How to Choose an SRS
Choosing
Choosing an SRS With Technology random
Step 1: Label. Give each individual in the population a distinct
rectangles
numerical label from 1 to N.
Step 2: Randomize. Use a random number generator to obtain n
different integers from 1 to N.

How to Choose an SRS Using Table D

Step 1: Label. Give each member of the population a numerical label
with the same number of digits. Use as few digits as possible.
Step 2: Randomize. Read consecutive groups of digits of the
appropriate length from left to right across a line in Table D. Ignore any
group of digits that wasn’t used as a label or that duplicates a label
already in the sample. Stop when you have chosen n different labels.
Your sample contains the individuals whose labels you find.

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 15

 Example: How to Choose an SRS
Problem: Use Table D at line 130 to choose an SRS of 4 hotels.

01 Aloha Kai 08 Captiva 15 Palm Tree

22 Sea Shell
02 Anchor Down 09 Casa del Mar 16 Radisson 23 Silver
Beach
03 Banana Bay 10 Coconuts 17 Ramada
24 Sunset Beach
04 Banyan Tree 11 Diplomat 18 Sandpiper
25 Tradewinds
69051Castle
05 Beach 64817 87174Inn 09517 8453419 Sea
12 Holiday 06489
Castle87201 97245
26 Tropical Breeze
06 Best Western 13 Lime Tree 20 Sea Club
27 Tropical Shores
07 Cabana 14 Outrigger 21 Sea Grape
28 Veranda
69 05 16 48 17 87 17 40 95 17 84 53 40 64 89 87 20

Our SRS of 4 hotels for the editors to contact is: 05 Beach

Castle, 16 Radisson, 17 Ramada, and 20 Sea Club.
The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 16
 Stratified Random Sample
The basic idea of sampling is straightforward: take an SRS from the
population and use your sample results to gain information about the
population.

Sometimes there are statistical advantages to using more complex

sampling methods.

To get a stratified random sample, start by classifying the population

into groups of similar individuals, called strata.

Then choose a separate SRS in each stratum and combine these

SRSs to form the sample.

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 17

 Cluster Sample
Although a stratified random sample can sometimes give more precise
information about a population than an SRS, both sampling methods
are hard to use when populations are large and spread out over a wide
area.

In that situation, we’d prefer a method that selects groups of individuals

that are “near” one another.

To get a cluster sample, start by classifying the population into groups

of individuals that are located near each other, called clusters.

Then choose an SRS of the clusters. All individuals in the chosen

clusters are included in the sample.

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 18

 Systematic Samples
• Sometimes we draw a sample by selecting individuals
systematically.
– For example, you might survey every 10th person on an
alphabetical list of students.
• To make it random, you must still start the systematic
selection from a randomly selected individual.
• When there is no reason to believe that the order of the list
could be associated in any way with the responses sought,
systematic sampling can give a representative sample.

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 19

 Other Sampling Techniques

Systematic Sample
 Choose a starting value at random. Then choose every k th member of
the population.

• In the Shelby County example you could assign a

different number to each household, randomly
choose a starting number, then select every 100 th
household.

20 Larson/Farber 4th
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ed.
 Inference for Sampling
The purpose of a sample is to give us information about a larger
population.

The process of drawing conclusions about a population on the basis of

sample data is called inference.

Why should we rely on random sampling?

1. To avoid bias in selecting samples from the list of available individuals.

2. The laws of probability allow trustworthy inference about the population
• Results from random samples come with a margin of error that sets
bounds on the size of the likely error.
• Larger random samples give better information about the population
than smaller samples.

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 21

 Sample Surveys: What Can Go Wrong?
Most sample surveys are affected by errors in addition to sampling
variability.

Good sampling technique includes the art of reducing all sources of error.

Undercoverage occurs when some members of the population cannot

be chosen in a sample.

Nonresponse occurs when an individual chosen for the sample can’t

be contacted or refuses to participate.

A systematic pattern of incorrect responses in a sample survey leads to

response bias.

The wording of questions is the most important influence on the

answers given to a sample survey.

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 22

 Samples and Surveys
Section Summary
In this section, we learned how to…
 IDENTIFY the population and sample in a statistical study.
 IDENTIFY voluntary response samples and convenience samples.
EXPLAIN how these sampling methods can lead to bias.
 DESCRIBE how to obtain a random sample using slips of paper, technology,
or a table of random digits.
 DISTINGUISH a simple random sample from a stratified random sample or
cluster sample. Give the advantages and disadvantages of each sampling
method.
 EXPLAIN how undercoverage, nonresponse, question wording, and other
aspects of a sample survey can lead to bias.

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 23