Thesis Title:

Predicting settlement growth in Faridpur, Bangladesh for the

year 2033: A GIS-based assessment

Supervisor Student Name

Dr. Raunaq Jahan Raiyan
Associate Professor Student ID: 222118
Department of Geography & Environment 18th Batch, MSGED Program
Jahangirnagar University
Department of Geography & Environment
Jahangirnagar University
Savar, Dhaka-1342, Bangladesh
 Background of the Study
● Urban Growth is a major problem during the urban development of the
developing countries in the 21st century. It drives the change in land
use/cover pattern (Mohammed et al., 2014).
● The key reasons of land use change are significant deforestation, land
conversion, agricultural expansion and municipal land use
transformation (Bailey et al., 2016).
● For studying the land use pattern of an urban area GIS and RS based
assessment is cost effective methods (Zhang et al., 2016).
● Bangladesh is more populated than any other country. The rate of
urbanization is not sustainable, and across the country, growth is uneven
and spatially imbalanced (Hassan, 2017).
 Literature Review
● Mohammed et al. (2014) explored the use of GIS technology and satellite imagery to
observe the urban growth in Dohuk City, Iraq. The findings reveal a rapid expansion
of Dohuk city, by using the classification techniques.
● Another study employed the Markov chain–cellular automata method to model and
predict land-use changes in Dhaka. Initial land-use/land-cover maps from satellite
images for three time periods were used (Dewan & Corner, 2014).
● Hossain et al. (2022) investigated the rapid urban growth in Gopalganj district,
Bangladesh, over the last two decades using Landsat data. By employing the
Maximum likelihood classification technique and artificial neural network (ANN) with
integrated cellular automation (CA) simulation, predicted the urban areas.
● Utilizing GIS data and satellite image classification techniques, research revealed a
significant increase in the total urban area in Saudi Arabia. Study used statistical
methods for predicting the settlement growth (Alqahtany, 2023).
 Study Area

Total Area: 412.86 sq. km.

Total Population: 469410
Population Density: 1137 per
sq. km.
Growth Rate: 1.59% per year.

(BBS, 2011)
 Significance of the Study

● Faridpur has undergone rapid urbanization over the past decades. It has
experienced significant economic, population growth. The pop growth rate
is 1.59% per year (BBS, 2011).
● Economic activities and real estate business has led to considerable
changes in land use.
● Increased urban migration rate concerns about potential unplanned urban
slums.
● There is an urgent requirement for an effective management and
regulatory system to facilitate the expansion of settlement areas while
maintaining control over the service facilities.
 Research Gap

● Noticeable gap in research focusing on Faridpur city.

● No studies have been identified that evaluate the proportion of land
utilized by settlements and forecast the future settlement using
Landsat data.
 Aim, Objective and Research Question

The aim of our research is to understand past urban expansion and

AIM predict the future settlement growth in Faridpur City by 2033.

1 To analyze the land use change in Faridpur City over the past decades
(1993-2023)
Objective
2 To predict the settlement expansion in Faridpur City by the year 2033

1 What are the patterns and rates of land use change in Faridpur City for
span of 30 years?
Question
What is distribution of settlement expansion in Faridpur City by the
2
year 2033?
 Data source and Methods

Quantitative Approach

USGS

Secondary
Data Data Source Google Earth

LGED
Methodological Framework
 Work Program

Major Research 3 months

Tasks
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Literature search and
review
Design and develop
methodology
Satellite Data
download and image
processing
Data collection, &
processing
Data analysis
Reporting and
dissemination
 Expected Outcomes

● The study intends to identify the land use change over the past
decades resulting in the increase of settlement and decrease in
vegetation.
● The future settlement increase can be identified by the research
outcome.
 Conclusion

● By using GIS and spatial analysis, the study will provide a deeper
understanding of Faridpur City's growth.
● The prediction may help municipal and administrative authorities,
urban planners to achieve a planned and sustainable city.
References
● Alqahtany, A. (2023). GIS-based assessment of land use for predicting increase in settlements in Al Ahsa Metropolitan Area, Saudi
Arabia for the year 2032. Alexandria Engineering Journal, 62, 269–277. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2022.07.020
● Arsanjani, J. J., Helbich, M., & Mousivand, A. J. (2014). A Morphological Approach to Predicting Urban Expansion. Transactions in
GIS, 18(2), 219–233. https://doi.org/10.1111/tgis.12031
● Bailey, K. M., McCleery, R. A., Binford, M. W., & Zweig, C. (2016). Land-cover change within and around protected areas in a
biodiversity hotspot. Journal of Land Use Science, 11(2), 154–176. https://doi.org/10.1080/1747423X.2015.1086905
● BBS. (2011). District Statistics 2011 (Faridpur). December. www.bbs.gov.bd
● Dewan, A. M., & Corner, R. J. (2014). Dhaka megacity: Geospatial perspectives on urbanisation, environment and health. Dhaka
Megacity: Geospatial Perspectives on Urbanisation, Environment and Health, 1–405. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-6735-5
● Hassan, M. M. (2017). Monitoring land use/land cover change, urban growth dynamics and landscape pattern analysis in five fastest
urbanized cities in Bangladesh. Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment, 7, 69–83.
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.RSASE.2017.07.001
● Hossain, M. T., Zarin, T., Sahriar, M. R., & Haque, M. N. (2022). Machine learning based modeling for future prospects of land use land
cover change in Gopalganj District, Bangladesh. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 126(March), 103022.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2021.103022
● Mohammed, H., Res, M. A.-I. J. S. E., & 2014, U. (2014). Monitoring and prediction of urban growth using GIS techniques: A Case
study of Dohuk City Kurdistan Region of Iraq. International Journal of Development, 2, 21–36.
http://kenanaonline.com/files/0080/80118/21-36 Hussin Darwish Mohammed.pdf
● Zhang, P., Gong, M., Su, L., Liu, J., & Li, Z. (2016). Change detection based on deep feature representation and mapping transformation
for multi-spatial-resolution remote sensing images. ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, 116, 24–41.
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ISPRSJPRS.2016.02.013
Thank
You