2.2: Sampling methods (pp.

17 20)
Probability sampling: methods that can specify the probability that a given sample will be selected. Randomization: a technique for insuring that any member of a population has an equal chance of appearing in a sample.
With randomization, sample statistics will on average have the same values as the population parameters.

Simple random sample: each possible sample of a given size has the same likelihood of being selected.

How to select a simple random sample

1. list all the subjects in a population 2. assign a number to each subject 3. pick numbers from a list of random numbers 4. put the corresponding subjects in the sample. Cost and feasibility can be problems, especially if the population is large. OK, for people in households or students in

Non-probability sampling (pp. 20 21)

Non-probability sampling methods cannot specify the probability that a given sample will be selected.
Example: snowball sampling methods (Edin and Lein)

Why use such methods?

They are often inexpensive They can provide information about groups that are difficult to sample or require great trust or will get lengthy unstructured interviews. Some social variables and their relationships are universal, which makes sampling method irrelevant!
This is assumed for many psychology studies and medical studies.

Common research designs (pp. 21 22) Experimental design

Subjects are randomly assigned to treatments (=variables) by the researcher Causal inferences are stronger Random sampling from the population less important Usually laboratory (exc. Moving to Opportunity, MTO)

Observational design (e.g., surveys)

Subjects are not randomly assigned to variables Random sampling is important. Selection bias Causal inferences are compromised.

Natural Experiments
Observational studies (esp. surveys) where respondents values on a causal variable are plausibly random. Examples: Military draft lottery Births in last half of year Indian panchayats headed by women Parity 3 birth after same sex or opposite sex

2.3: Sampling and non-sampling variability (pp. 22 24)

We ideally like sample statistics to be as close as possible to population parameters, but several factors can cause variability:
Sampling error: the difference between a sample statistic and its population parameter.
Random sampling allows us to estimate the typical size of the sampling error.

Non-sampling error: comes from other sources, can be systematically biased, and is difficult to estimate.
Examples of nonsampling error include undercoverage, nonresponse, question wording (e.g., response bias), question order.

2.4: probability sampling methods (pp. 25 28) Systematic random sample:

Stratified random sample:

Cluster sampling:

Multistage sampling:

2.4: probability sampling methods (pp. 25 28) Systematic random sample:

pick a random case from the first k cases of a sample; select every kth case after that one

Stratified random sample:

Cluster sampling:

Multistage sampling:

2.4: probability sampling methods (pp. 25 28) Systematic random sample:

pick a random case from the first k cases of a sample; select every kth case after that one

Stratified random sample:

divide a population into groups, then select a simple random sample from each stratum

Cluster sampling:

Multistage sampling:

2.4: probability sampling methods (pp. 25 28) Systematic random sample:

pick a random case from the first k cases of a sample; select every kth case after that one

Stratified random sample:

divide a population into groups, then select a simple random sample from each stratum

Cluster sampling:
divide the population into groups called clusters or primary sampling units (PSUs); take a random sample of the clusters

Multistage sampling:

2.4: probability sampling methods (pp. 25 28) Systematic random sample:

pick a random case from the first k cases of a sample; select every kth case after that one

Stratified random sample:

divide a population into groups, then select a simple random sample from each stratum

Cluster sampling:
divide the population into groups called clusters or primary sampling units (PSUs); take a random sample of the clusters

Multistage sampling:
several levels of nested clusters, often including both stratified and cluster sampling techniques

Examples of sampling in typical surveys

National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY)
12,686 men and women ages 14-22 in 1979. includes a multistage sample designed to be nationally representative. includes oversamples of hispanic women and men, black nonhispanic women and men, poor white women and men, plus military subsamples, along with sampling weights. A reinterview every two years loses some respondents (nonrandomly) to attrition.

Current Population Survey: http://www.census.gov/prod/2000pubs/tp63.pdf, section 14, especially Table 14-5 for DEFF