Whats at stake

On the day of the first of three presidential debates, polling strongly suggests
Mitt Romney has fewer paths to an electoral win than President Barack Obama has.
Iowa 6 electoral votes
Obama has a sentimental attachment to
Iowa for delivering his first victory in
his improbable primary race four years
ago. But the state presents a far bigger
challenge this time. Romney and the full
Republican field spent months attacking
Obama in the Iowa caucus campaign this
year, which has kept the presidents poll
ratings lower than other nearby states. In
a close general election, these six electoral
votes are critical to both sides.
Polling: The highly regarded Des Moines Register
poll, published Sunday, gives Obama a 49-45 lead.
Romneys opening: 10 percent say they could
still be persuaded to vote for another candidate.
FiveThirtyEight has pushed this to likely Obama.
Real Clear Politics poll of polls has Obama with a
3.5-point advantage and rates the state as a tossup.
2008: Obama +9.5 2004: Bush +0.7
Nevada 6 electoral votes
The economic outlook in Nevada has
declined considerably since Obama won
the state four years ago and has been slow
to rebound. With the nations highest rates
of home foreclosure and unemployment,
Romney has a ready-made laboratory
to argue that policies of the Obama
administration have not worked. A large
Mormon population also could bolster
Romney, but Obama is hoping his appeal
to Latino and lower-income voters will
deliver the state again.
Polling: Six polls from Sept. 18-25 range from a
tie to a 9-point Obama lead. The Real Clear Politics
poll of polls average gives the president a 49.7-44.5
advantage. FiveThirtyEight has rated the state as
likely Obama, giving the president an 84 percent
chance of victory here.
2008: Obama +12.5 2004: Bush +2.6
Wisconsin 10 electoral votes
The addition of Rep. Paul Ryan of
Wisconsin to the Republican ticket
does not guarantee victory over Obama,
but it cements the states role as a true
battleground. Democrats carried the
state in the last six presidential contests
often narrowly but Republican groups
are advertising to try to push the Obama
campaign to spend money. Still, Romney is
at the top of the ticket and must show that
he can make his own case here.
Polling: Four polls in the Real Clear Politics poll of
polls show an Obama lead ranging from 3 points
(Rasmussen Reports, Sept. 17) to 12 points (We Ask
America, Sept. 20-23). The poll of polls average shows
a 6.7 lead for the incumbent. FiveThirtyEight rates
Wisconsin as Safe Obama with the president having
a 91 percent chance of winning the state.
2008: Obama +13.9% 2004: Kerry +0.4%
Colorado 9 electoral votes
President Barack Obamas victory in
Colorado was among his most prized
accomplishments in 2008, after the state
had voted reliably Republican in eight of
the previous nine presidential elections.
A wariness of big government could test
Obama in the Rocky Mountain West, but
Mitt Romney faces his own challenge in
appealing to independents and women,
whose support was critical in a pair of
Democratic wins in races for Senate and
governor in Colorado in 2010.
Polling: On Sept. 16, The Denver Post had this as a
statistical tie; since Sept. 15, five of six different polls
in the Real Clear Politics poll of polls have Obama
with a lead ranging from 3 to 6 points; the sixth, by
Rasmussen Reports, had Romney with a 2-point lead
on Sept. 17. The poll of polls gives Obama a 3.1-point
lead, 48.8 to 45.7. FiveThirtyEight gives Obama a 76
percent chance of winning the state.
2008: Obama +9.0 2004: Bush +4.7
North Carolina 15 electoral votes
Democrats selected Charlotte as the
site of their national convention, with
party leaders hoping to generate enough
enthusiasm among voters to help repeat
Obamas narrow victory in 2008. Mitt
Romney had hoped to shore up the state
by now, but both sides continue to spend
money on television advertising. The state
has a long history of voting Republican.
Polling: FiveThirtyEight says Romney has a 64 percent
chance of winning here. Real Clear Politics poll
of polls shows a tie. Six separate polls since Sept.
15 show the president with a lead in four; the two
others, conducted Sept. 27-30, show Romney and
Obama tied in one, and the president trailing by 4
points in the other. Real Clear Politics has moved the
state from leans Romney to a tossup.
2008: Obama +0.3 2004: Bush +12.4
Ohio 18 electoral votes
There are few credible paths to the White
House for Romney without winning Ohio,
a well-established bellwether. The state
has accurately picked winning presidential
candidates in the past 12 elections. A
steadily improving economy could
help Obama carry the state again. Large
portions of the state remain conservative,
but Republicans worry that Democrats
may be motivated by a victory last year in
which voters struck down a law restricting
public workers rights to bargain
collectively.
Polling: Polling from Sept. 19-29, The Columbus
Dispatch had it Obama 51, Romney 42. From Sept.
27-29, Public Policy Polling had it 49-45 for the
president. Romneys opportunity: In the PPP poll, 48
percent approve of Obama, 49 percent disapprove.
2008: Obama +4.6%2004: Bush +2.1%
Florida 29 electoral votes
The most famous battleground state in
America could once again earn that title.
Obama carried the state in 2008, but a
wave of home foreclosures and a sour
economy complicated his path to a repeat
win. A growing number of conservative
retirees offer Romney hope, but the
outcome could hinge on whether he
can win over Latino voters, particularly
younger Cuban Americans in southern
Florida and Puerto Ricans in central
Florida.
Polling: In Real Clear Politics poll of polls, all four
have Obama with a lead ranging from 1 to 4 points.
FiveThirtyEight cites five polls, all giving Obama
the edge, ranging from a 0.6-point lead to 9.0.
FiveThirtyEight says the state is a lean for Obama
and rates the presidents chance of winning at 71
percent. A Fox News poll on Sept. 18 gave Obama a
5.0-point lead.
2008: Obama +2.8 2004: Bush +5.0
New Hampshire 4 electoral votes
The White House has paid close attention
to New Hampshire, sending Vice President
Joe Biden to the state repeatedly to make
an argument against Romney, who has
a vacation home in the state and is seen
as a favorite son. The voters have an
independent streak but generally oppose
what they perceive as government
intrusion in their lives. It could be one of
Romneys best opportunities to win a state
that Obama carried in 2008.
Polling: Real Clear Politics has pushed this state to a
leans Obama with a four-poll average of a 50.0-44.0
advantage for the president while FiveThirtyEight
rates the state as Safe Obama. A Rasmussen Reports
poll on Sept. 18 gave Romney a 3-point lead, but
more recent polling by others show spreads ranging
from 5.0 to 15.0 for the president. FiveThirtyEight
gives the president a 90 percent chance of victory.
2008: Obama +9.6% 2004: Kerry +1.3%
Virginia 13 electoral votes
As one of the nations newest battleground
states, Virginia will be center stage in
Obamas fight for re-election. The state is
deeply conservative, but population shifts
in northern Virginia have changed the
states political demographics. Romneys
argument against the expansion of
government is complicated by the number
of government workers in Virginia. Both
campaigns agree the race will be close.
Polling: A Fox News poll conducted Sept. 16-18 gave
Obama a 7-point lead. Real Clear Politics poll of polls
from Sept. 17-28 has it closer: Obama 48.0, Romney
44.3. All five recent polls cited by FiveThirtyEight
give Obama a lead ranging from 2 points to 7.
FiveThirtyEight also gives Obama a 78 percent chance
of winning the state.
2008: Obama +6.3% 2004: Bush +8.2%
Sources: State summaries by The New York Times; state polling (as of 1:30 p.m. MDT, Tuesday) compiled by The Denver Post; polling information by The New York Times,
FiveThirtyEight, Real Clear Politics, The Denver Post, The Des Moines Register, The Columbus Dispatch, Fox News, Public Policy Polling. Rasmussen Reports, We Ask America
Map: The New York Times and the Denver Post
Barack Obama
ELECTORAL VOTES 237
Mitt Romney
ELECTORAL VOTES
Needs 79
to win
Needs 33
to win
191
270 electoral votes
needed to win
185 Strong Obama
52
Leaning Obama
33
Leaning Romney
110
Tossup votes
158 Strong Romney
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The tossup states

If the solid and leaning states break
as predicted, there is but one scenario
where Mitt Romney can win the election if he
loses Florida: He would have to win all other swing
states. All of them. If he were to win Florida, he would
then need 50 of the remaining 81 electoral votes to win
the presidency. Go ahead, do the math. Theres but one
conclusion: Mitt Romney needs to move the needle in
his favor at Wednesday nights debate.
(Includes 1 electoral vote
for Maine District 2)
(Includes 1 electoral vote
for Nebraska District 2)
On the day of the rst of three presidential debates, polling strongly suggests
Mitt Romney has fewers paths to an electoral win than does President Barack Obama.
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