MEMORANDUM TO: FROM: RE: DATE: INTERESTED PARTIES GLEN BOLGER KEY FINDINGS STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER 29,

, 2012

Methodology Public Opinion Strategies completed a statewide survey of 500 likely voters in New Mexico. The survey was conducted October 21-22, 2012 and included 100 cell phone interviews. The survey has a margin of error of +4.38% in 95 out of 100 cases. The sample was 48% Democratic and 36% Republican for party, and was 37% Hispanic and 52% white for ethnicity. Total minority percentage was 46%. Key Findings 1. The campaign is margin of error close. Heather Wilson leads Martin Heinrich for the first time in the campaign, by a 44%-43% margin, with 6% for Independent American Party candidate Jon Barrie. The remaining seven percent are undecided. Wilson leads 40%-24%-17% among Independents, and is polling a strong 30% of soft Democrats. 2. Barack Obama has a lead over Mitt Romney. Obama has a 47%-42% advantage in the Presidential race, with 6% for Gary Johnson. 3. These data are backed up by the early vote trends in New Mexico. In 2008, across key districts, the Democrats had a 22% advantage on early votes nearly 100,000 ballots. In 2010, when Susana Martinez won the governorship with 53.3% of the vote, Democrats had a 6.6% advantage on early votes in the same battleground areas, equating to 21,000 ballots. Now, the Democrats have a 11% advantage on early ballots, an advantage of 25,000 ballots. Thus, the early ballot differential looks much closer to 2010 than 2008 another reason this election and electorate is not 2008 redux.
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