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Americans United For Change The Mellman Group, Inc. President Obama Holds Slight Edge In Tight Iowa Race, Leads Early Vote By 17 November 2, 2012

This analysis represents the findings of a statewide survey of the likely November 2012 Iowa electorate using a registration-based sample including cellphones and landlines. Six hundred (600) interviews were conducted October 30-November 1. The margin of error for the whole sample is +/-4.0% at a 95% level of confidence and higher for subgroups depending upon size.

Our latest poll shows Obama and Romney locked in a tight battle for Iowas six electoral votes, but with the president holding a slight lead overall, and a 15-point advantage among those who have already cast their ballots. Forty-six percent (46%) said they planned to or already had voted for Obama, 2 points higher than Romneys vote share. Among the 41% of the electorate who have already cast their ballot, Obama collected 51% of the vote to Romneys 36%. Twelve percent (12%) declined to reveal their choice. The candidates have equally consolidated their party bases, with Obama winning 94% of Democrats and Romney winning 90% of Republicans. However, the president also holds an advantage with centrists, leading Romney 47% to 39% among registered independents and 53% to 30% among selfdescribed moderates.

Obama Leads Romney Overall, And By Double Digits In The Early Vote
Presidential Vote
80% 80%

Early Voters
+15
60%

+2
60%

46%
40%

51% 36%

44%
40%

20%

10%

20%

12%

Romney Undecided Romney No Answer While the pool of Obama Obama undecided voters has shrunk to just 5% of the Iowa electorate, the president also shows an image advantage among groups that traditionally decide late. He has a more positive image among registered independents (58% favorable to 38% unfavorable) compared with Romneys 45%/50% favorable/unfavorable ratio. The president also has a favorable image among 18-to-39 year-old voters (59% favorable to 39% unfavorable) and among moderates (61% to 35%).

0%

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While 2012 will certainly be tighter than 2008, when voters delivered a game-changing caucus victory in January and a 9.5% win in November, President Obama retains a strong chance to win again in Iowa.
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