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(i) Show that
1
6
a = and find the value of b. [3 marks]
(ii) Find
1
( 1 )
2
P X > . [2 marks]
(iii) Find the value of m such that
1
( )
2
P X m < = . [3 marks]
8 The table below shows the income tax collected (in million RM) quarterly and the centred
moving averages from year 2011 to year 2013.
Year Quarter Income tax (in million RM) Centred moving average
1 12
2011 2 25
3 20 29.125
4 55 31.625
1 21 34.750
2012 2 36 38.375
3 34 42.000
4 70 45.500
1 35 48.000
2013 2 50 51.875
3 40
4 95
(a) Using a multiplicative model, calculate the adjusted seasonal index for each of the
four quarters. Write down your answers correct to three decimal places. [4 marks]
(b) Obtain a seasonally adjusted time series. [2 marks]
(c) Find the equation of the trend line using the least squares method. [4 marks]
(d) Hence, predict the income tax collected in the first quarter of the year 2014 such that it
exceeds the current trend by 10%. [5 marks]
CONFIDENTIAL*
950/2
*This question paper is CONFIDENTIAL until the examination is over. CONFIDENTIAL*
4
CONFIDENTIAL*
950/2
*This question paper is CONFIDENTIAL until the examination is over. CONFIDENTIAL*
5