The Science of

Climate Change
A Bahá'í Perspective
Arthur Lyon Dahl Ph.D.
International Environment Forum (IEF)
http://www.bcca.org/ief

Bahá'í Conference on Social and Economic

Development
Orlando, Florida, 20 December 2008

International Environment Forum

 Why are we worried?
• If climate change goes unchecked, its effects
will be catastrophic “on the level of nuclear war”.
• ‘The security dimension will come increasingly
to the forefront as countries begin to see falls in
available resources and economic vitality,
increased stress on their armed forces, greater
instability in regions of strategic import,
increases in ethnic rivalries, and a widening gap
between rich and poor’.
International Institute for Strategic Studies, Strategic Survey 2007
(September 2007)
Greenhouse Effect
Carbon Dioxide, a Greenhouse Gas
• We are interfering with the carbon cycle,
releasing carbon from long-term storage by
burning fossil fuels (oil, coal, natural gas) and
adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere
Greenhouse gases and climate change
• More heat in the atmosphere and oceans
changes air and water circulation and climate
• Local effects will be highly variable, and are not
easily predictable
• Various computer models are used to predict
the effect of rising greenhouse gas levels on
the climate
• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change confirms a significant human climate
impact
Past and Future CO2 Concentrations
 Changes in
greenhouse
gas
concentrations
CO2

Methane

Nitrous oxides
IPCC 2007
Carbon dioxide and temperature
 We are all responsible
for climate change
• Everyone benefiting from the burning of fossil
fuels is responsible
• Everyone involved in land clearing or benefiting
from land use changes is a contributor
• How much we are responsible depends on our
country of residence, lifestyle and consumption
patterns, with the rich most responsible
• The poor will be the greatest victims of climate
change, while contributing the least to the
problem
• This is an ethical dilemma
 National
Carbon
Dioxide
Emissions
Per Capita
 Country Share
of Global
CO2 Emissions
2004

Highly concentrated
(UNDP HDR 2007-2008)
Energy-related CO2 Emissions
(UNDP HDR 2007-2008)
Cumulative CO2 Emissions
by rich countries
(UNDP HDR 2007-2008)
GHG Emissions by Sector
(UNDP HDR 2007-2008)
 Climate Change will be
stronger and sooner
• Global carbon dioxide emissions from
fossil fuel have accelerated since 2000
• Rise in 1990s 0.7%/yr; 2.9% since 2000
• Three causes: growth in world economy,
rise of coal use in China, weakening of
natural carbon sinks (forests, seas, soils)
• Growth in atmospheric CO2 about 35%
higher than expected a few years ago
Temperature
Trends
Temperature increase last 50 years
 Climate Change Science
• No science is perfect, and there are always
different interpretations of the available data
• Powerful interests have tried to discredit
climate change science despite the
overwhelming consensus of climate scientists
on the human impact on global warming
• The counter-arguments have been disproved
one after the other
• Even the latest IPCC report (2007) represents
a very cautious compromise position reflecting
what is certain, not probable
 Signs of Climate Change

Many species are changing their latitudinal
and altitudinal distributions in response to
rising temperatures

Coral reefs have suffered bleaching and
mortality from unusually high temperatures

The number of category 5 cyclones
(hurricanes) has increased in all oceans over
the last 30 years

The last 12 years have seen 11 of the
warmest years ever recorded
What the models say
IPCC 2007
Ocean thermohaline circulation
 Polar areas are changing fastest

Half of the permafrost in the Arctic is expected to
melt by 2050 and 90% before 2100, releasing
methane

14% of the permanent ice in the Arctic Ocean melted
in 2005; 23% more in 2007(worst melting ever);
almost as much in 2008; opening the North-West
Passage; permanent ice in the Arctic Ocean may be
gone by 2015-30

Greenland glaciers have doubled their rate of flow in
the last few years, raising sea level 0.6 mm per year

Similar melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet could
add another 4 mm per year
 Did 'Abdu'l-Bahá know about
global warming?

“Should the fire of the love of God be

kindled in Greenland, all of the ice of that
country will be melted, and its cold weather
become temperate...”
'Abdu'l-Bahá (1916), Tablets of the Divine Plan, 5, p. 28

(He is also reported to have said that palm trees

would grow in Chicago and Montreal.)
 Arctic
Temperature
Scenario
2090
Predicted
decrease
in
Arctic
Ocean
ice cover
Arctic Ocean
permanent
ice cover
Glacier retreat - Argentina
(BBC News)
Retreat of the Rhone Glacier,
(BBC News)
Valais, Switzerland
Reduction
in
Snow

2080-
2100
 There is little time left to act

Global temperatures have already risen 0.6°C and wi ll
probably rise a further 3°, or even up to 4.5-5°by 2100

Ocean temperatures have risen at least 3 km deep

Glaciers and snow cover have decreased; cold days,
nights and frost have become rarer; hot days, nights
and heat-waves more frequent

Sea level rise has doubled in 150 years to 2 mm/year,
and recent polar melting may add another 4 mm/year

Recent surge in CO2 levels from less uptake by plants
We may soon be approaching a tipping point where
runaway climate change would be catastrophic
Agricultural Productivity
2080
Predicted changes in precipitation

December-February June-August

Percent change 1900-1999 to 2000-2099

IPCC 2007
Biodiversity 2050
Biodiversity Impacts
Changing
Biomes
in
South
Africa
Coral reefs protect tropical coasts and provide fish
but global warming could bleach and kill them
Climate change and coral reefs
 Coral reefs will grow more slowly
Carbon dioxide makes the water more acid
Ocean Acidification to 2100
The most vulnerable areas risking
catastrophic collapse this century
• Arctic Ocean and Greenland ice sheet
• Amazon rain forest
• Northern boreal forests
• El Nino affecting weather in North
America, South-East Asia and Africa
(3°C rise)
• Collapse of West African monsoon
• Erratic Indian summer monsoon
Human Impacts of Climate Change
• Increased damage from extreme weather
events: floods, droughts, cyclones
• Less winter snowfall, melting glaciers, water
shortages
• Changing conditions for agriculture and
forestry, shifting fish stocks, disease vectors
• Sea level rise, flooding low-lying areas and
islands
• Millions of environmental refugees (500m-1b)
• High costs of mitigation and adaptation
• Greatest impact on the poor
Spread of Malaria 2050
Food Insecurity
Sea Level Rise 1870-2006
Projected sea(IPCC
level
2007)
rise to 2100
Effects of 1m Sea Level Rise
Rising sea levels will create millions of refugees
If you lived on a coral island
What would you do if the sea
level rose?

Carrie Bow Cay, Belize, Research Station of the Smithsonian Institution

Atoll: Butaritari, Kiribati
Tuvalu is already being flooded
(BBC News)
Predicted Climate Refugees
2010
(IAASTD 2008)
Economic impact of natural disasters linked to global warming

Record $112 billion in 1998

Unprecedented $204 billion in 2005, reflecting the high number

of disasters affecting built-up areas
 Effect on the economy

The Stern Report estimated the annual cost
of uncontrolled climate change at more than
$660 billion (5 to 20% of global GDP, as
compared to 1% for control measures for
greenhouse gases).

Climate change represents the greatest
market failure in human history

IPCC 4 says stabilizing greenhouse gases by
2030 will slow global growth 0.12%/yr or 3%
total global GDP
Global warming is driven by our
addiction to fossil fuels
• Industrial economy depends on cheap energy,
80% from fossil fuels
• Transportation, communications, trade,
agriculture, urbanization, consumer lifestyle all
depend on abundant energy
• Energy needs +50% by 2030, half in China
and India; coal +73%; CO2 emissions +57%
(2/3 from US, China, India, Russia)
• Adaptation will be expensive and the struggle
for diminishing resources globally destabilizing
 The double
economic challenge
“On current trends, ...humanity will need twice as
much energy as it uses today within 35 years....
Produce too little energy, say the economists,
and there will be price hikes and a financial
crash unlike any the world has ever known, with
possible resource wars, depression and famine.
Produce the wrong sort of energy, say the
climate scientists, and we will have more
droughts, floods, rising seas and worldwide
economic disaster with runaway global warming.
John Vidal in The Guardian Weekly, 9-15 February 2007, Energy supplement, p. 3
Present institutions have failed to
address such global challenges
• No politician will sacrifice short-term
economic welfare, even while agreeing that
sustainability is essential in the long term
• Deep social divisions within societies and
between countries prevent united action in
the common interest
• Climate change is just one symptom of the
fundamental imbalances in our world
• Our present economic system is driving us in
the wrong direction
 The values underlying the economic
system are threatened fundamentally

- Economic thinking is challenged by the

environmental crisis (including climate change)
- The belief that there is no limit to nature's
capacity to fulfil any demand made on it is
false
- A culture which attaches absolute value to
expansion, to acquisition, and to the satisfaction
of people's wants must recognise that such goals
are not, by themselves, realistic guides to policy

(based on The Prosperity of Humankind, Bahá'í International Community, 1995)

 Climate change is driven by our
consumer culture
- Materialism's gospel of human betterment produced
today's consumer culture pursuing ephemeral goals
- For the small minority of people who can afford them,
the benefits it offers are immediate, and the rationale
unapologetic
- The breakdown of traditional morality has led to the
triumph of animal impulse, as instinctive and blind as
appetite
- Selfishness becomes a prized commercial resource;
falsehood reinvents itself as public information; greed,
lust, indolence, pride - even violence - acquire not
merely broad acceptance but social and economic value
- Yet material comforts and acquisitions have been
drained of meaning (based on Baha'i International Community, One Common Faith, 2005)
 Ways forward
Harness all available sources of energy on the
surface of the planet (UN estimated investment
required $20 trillion over 2 decades)

Reduce environmental impact to sustainable limits

Accelerate the transition to reduce the shock

Create global governance mechanisms to manage

this global challenge

Share the cost, effort and benefits globally with

equity and justice
A Global Approach
is Necessary

• Climate change cannot be separated from

the challenges of economic globalization,
energy and resource depletion, poverty
reduction, social imbalances and security
• Each problem interacts with the others in
complex ways
• Partial solutions will not solve the problems
that threaten future sustainability
 Moral and ethical challenge

Mitigation of climate change... asks profound

moral and ethical questions of our generation.
In the face of clear evidence that inaction will
hurt millions of people and consign them to
lives of poverty and vulnerability, can we
justify inaction? No civilized community
adhering to even the most rudimentary ethical
standards would answer that question in the
affirmative, especially one that lacked neither
the technology nor the financial resources to
act decisively.
UNDP Human Development Report 2007/2008, p. 68
Sustainability – an ethical concept

As trustees or stewards of the planet's

resources and biodiversity, we must:
- ensure sustainability and equity of resource
use into distant future
- consider the environmental consequences
of development activities
- temper our actions with moderation and
humility
- understand the natural world and its role in
humanity's collective development both
material and spiritual
(based on Bahá'í International Community, Valuing Spirituality in Development. 1998)

 Sustainability is a
fundamental responsibility

Sustainable environmental management

must come to be seen... as a
fundamental responsibility that must be
shouldered, a pre-requisite for spiritual
development as well as the individual's
physical survival.
(based on Bahá'í International Community, Valuing Spirituality in Development. 1998)

Moderation in Material Civilization

The civilization, so often vaunted by

the learned exponents of arts and
sciences, will, if allowed to overleap
the bounds of moderation, bring great
evil upon men....
Bahá'u'lláh (1817-1892)
 JUSTICE AND EQUITY

It is unjust to sacrifice the well-being

of most people -- and even of the
planet itself -- to the advantages
which technological breakthroughs
can make available to privileged
minorities
(based on Baha'i International Community, Prosperity of Humankind)
 Climate change may be the common
threat that forces governments to work
together in their collective interest

An ethical approach will be essential

to convince all of us to act