NJC Probability Lecture Notes Student Edition

H2 Probability (Notes) National Junior College Mathematics Department 2011
National Junior College

2011 H2 Mathematics (Senior High 2)
Statistics 1 - Probability (Lecture Notes)
______________________________________________________________________

Objectives:
By the end of the lectures on Probability, students should be able to
1. understand that the probability of an event measures how likely the event will occur;
2. construct a table of possible outcomes to calculate probabilities;
3. understand that the total probability of all possible outcomes is equal to 1;
4. calculate probabilities using the addition and multiplication principles;
5. calculate probabilities using permutations and combinations;
6. use a Venn diagram to interpret and calculate probabilities such as P(A), P (A B) ,
P(A B) and P(A B) ;
7. understand the meaning of mutually exclusive events, and recognise events that are, or are not,
mutually exclusive through practical examples; and use the result
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) , where A and B are mutually exclusive;
8. understand the meaning of independent events, and use the result P ,
where A and B are independent;
(A B) P(A) P(B) =
9. construct a tree diagram and use it to interpret and calculate probabilities, including those of
combined events and conditional probabilities.

1 BASIC PROBABILITY CONCEPTS

Terminologies Examples
a) An experiment is a situation involving chance or
probability that leads to results called outcomes.
Tossing a fair die once.
b) An outcome (sample point) of an experiment is the
result of a single trial of the experiment.
{1} or {2} or . . . or {6}
c) The sample space, S, (or probability space) of an
experiment is the set of all possible outcomes.
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
d) An event, E, is one or more outcomes of an experiment
and it is a subset of the sample space S.
E = {set of even numbers}
= {2, 4, 6} S c
e) Probability is the measure of how likely an event is.
P(E) =
3 1
6 2
=

2011 SH2 H2 Mathematics 1
E.g. 1A: Experiment A

Tossing a fair or unbiased coin and noting the outcome.
Sample Space, = {H, T} and P({H}) = P({T}) =
A
S
1
2
.

E.g. 1B: Experiment B

Tossing a fair or unbiased die and noting the outcome.

Sample Space, = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, and
P({1}) = P({2}) = P({3}) = P({4}) = P({5}) = P({6}) =
B
S
1
6
.

Experiments A and B each have a Uniform Sample Space where each outcome is equally likely. A
uniform sample space is a finite sample space with all outcomes equally likely, i.e. the probability of
each outcome is
n
1
, where n is the number of outcomes.

E.g. 1C: Experiment C

Selecting a coloured ball, at random, from a box containing 3 white balls, 2 black balls
and 4 blue balls.

Sample Space, = {white, black, blue} and
P({white}) =
C
S
3
9 3
=
1
, P({black}) =
2
9
and P({blue}) =
4
9
.
As we can see, the outcomes in Experiment C are NOT equally likely to occur. We are more likely to
choose a blue ball than any other colour. We are least likely to choose a black ball.

2 TYPES OF EVENTS

C ( _ S) denotes impossible event and S ( _ S) denotes sample space or sure event.

E.g. 2.1: Consider an experiment that involves tossing a fair die.
Let event A = {7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12,} = C, i.e. an impossible event.
Let event B = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} = S, i.e. a sure event.

Let A and B be two events of an experiment.
(a) A B is the event that occurs if A occurs or B occurs (or both).
(b) A B is the event that occurs if A and B occur simultaneously.
(c) A' (i.e. the complement of A) occurs when A does not occur.

E.g. 2.2: Consider an experiment that involves tossing a fair die.
Let event A = {2, 4, 6} and event B = {1, 2, 3, 5, 6}.
Then A B = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, A B = {2, 6}, A' = {1, 3, 5}, B' = {4}.

Two events A and B are said to be mutually exclusive if they cannot occur
simultaneously i.e. A B = C or A and B are disjoint (refer to Venn diagram below).

A B

E.g. 2.3: Suppose a card is chosen from a pack of 52 playing cards. Let event A be that of a spade
being chosen and event B be that of a red card being chosen. Then A B = C since a
spade card cannot be red.

Diagrammatically, we have
Spade Red

Two events A and B are independent if the fact that A occurs (or not) does not affect the
probability of B occurring (or not).

E.g. 2.4: Let A be the event that a head is obtained after tossing a fair coin and B be the event that
a 5 is obtained after tossing a fair die. Then events A and B are said to be independent
since the occurrence of event A does not affect the occurrence of event B.

Note that:

(i) 2 events originating from independent experiments will themselves be independent.

(ii) Independent events occur in the context of
(a) two (or more) experiments taking place together, or
(b) one experiment being repeated a number of times.

(iii) Mutually exclusive events occur in the context of several possible outcomes of one
experiment.

(iv) "Mutually exclusive" and "Independent" are NOT the same.

3 PROBABILITY

If S is a uniform sample space (i.e. every outcome is equally likely) and A is an event in S, then the
probability that event A will occur is

( )
the number of ways in which event A can occur
P A
the total number of possible outcomes of the experiment
= .

E.g. 3.1: Two fair coins are tossed. What is the probability that at least one head occurs? What is
the probability that two tails occur?

TT HT
Sample Space, S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}.
It can be easily checked that S is a uniform sample space,
i.e. P({HH}) = P({HT}) = P({TH}) = P({TT}) =
1
4
.

Therefore we have
P(at least one head occurs) = P({HH, HT, TH}) =
3
4

and P(two tails occur) = P({TT}) =
1
4
.

Note that the two events, at least one head occurs and two tails occur, are mutually
exclusive and exhaustive,
i.e. if P(A B) = 1 then the events A and B are said to be exhaustive.

Laws of Probability

(1) ( ) 1 S P = and P(C) = 0.
(2) For every event A, ( ) 0 P A 1 s s and ( ) ( ) P A' 1 P A = .
(3) For ANY events A and B, ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) P A B P A P B P A B = + .
(4) Addition Rule for Probability:
Events A and B are mutually exclusive (disjoint) if and only if
P( ) = P(A) + P(B) since A B ( ) P A B 0 = .
If A
1
, A
2
, ..., A
n
are mutually exclusive and exhaustive then
( ) ( ) ( )
1 2 n
P A P A ... P A 1 + + + = .
(5) Multiplication Rule for Probability:
Events A and B are independent if and only if P(A B) P(A) P(B) = .
Note that (4) and (5) are tests to check if the 2 events A and B are mutually exclusive or
independent respectively.
First toss
H
T
T
H
HH TH
S
e
c
o
n
d

T
o
s
s

Sample space diagram for E.g. 3.1
E.g. 3.2: A die is weighted so that the probability of the number appearing when the die is tossed is
proportional to the given number.
Let A = {even number}, B = {prime number} and C = {odd number}.
Find
(a) the probability of each possible outcome
(b) P(A), P(B), P(C).
(c) the probability of getting an even number or a prime number.
(d) the probability of A occurring but not B occurring.

Sample Space, S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Solution:
(a) Given: P({x}) x P({x}) = kx
P({1}) = ____, P({2}) = ____, P({3}) = ____,
P({4}) = ____, P({5}) = ____, P({6}) = ____
{ } { } { } { } { } { } Then P( 1 ) P( 2 ) P( 3 ) P( 4 ) P( 5 ) P( 6 ) _____ 1
______ k
+ + + + + =
=
=
.
Hence, we have
P({1}) = ____, P({2}) = ____, P({3}) = ____,
P({4}) = ____, P({5}) = ____, P({6}) = ____.

(b) P(A) = P({2, 4, 6}) =
P(B) = P({2, 3, 5}) =
P(C) = P({1, 3, 5}) = or P(C) = 1 P(A) =

(c) P(even or prime number) =

(d) P(A but not B) =

E.g. 3.3: Consider an experiment where a fair coin and a fair die are tossed. Calculate the
probability that a head and a 3 are obtained from the toss.

Let the A be the event that a head is obtained and B be the event that a 3 is obtained.
Clearly these 2 events are independent since the outcome on the coin does not influence
or affect the outcome on the die.
Hence the required probability =
1 1 1
P(A B) P(A) P(B)
2 6 12
= = = .

E.g. 3.4: Now consider an experiment where 2 fair dice are tossed. The outcome on each die is
noted and added together. Find the probability that a sum of 5 is obtained.

Solution: Let
1
x be the score on the first die and
2
x be the score on the second die.
Then we have the following outcomes on the 2 dice that result in a sum of 5:

Each (
1
x ,
2
x ) outcome is mutually exclusive. Hence the ___________________ applies.
Hence the P(sum is 5) =

Alternatively, the number of ways a sum of 5 is obtained =
The total number of outcome of tossing two dice =
P(sum is 5) =

4 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

If A and B are two events with ( ) 0 B P = , then the probability of A given that B has already
occurred is ( )
( )
( )
B P
B A P
B | A P

= .

Note the following:
(i) If P(A) = P(B) then ( ) ( ) P A|B P B|A = as
( )
( )
P A B
P B
=
( )
( )
P A B
P A
.

(ii) We have ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) P A B P B|A P A P A|B P B = = .

(iii) If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then
( ) ( ) ( ) 0 B | A P A | B P 0 B A P = = = .

Proof: ( )
( )
( ) ( )
P A B
0
P A| B = 0
P B P B
= =

(iv) If A and B are independent events, then ( ) ( ) ( B' | A P B | A P A P ) = = .

Proof: ( )
( )
( )
( ) ( )
( )
( )
P A B P A .P B
P A| B = P A
P B P B
= = ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
P A B P A .P B =
Proof is similar for . i.e. the probability that A occurs is not influenced by
whether B has or has not occurred.
( P A| B')

1
x
1 4 2 3
2
x
4 1 3 2
The outcomes at the top row
are independent of those at
the bottom. Hence the
_______________________
applies
E.g. 4.1: A pair of fair dice is tossed. If the sum is 6, find the probability that one of the dice shows
2.

Solution: Let A be the event that the sum is 6 and B be the event that one of the dice shows 2.
A is {(1,5), (5,1), (2,4), (4,2), (3,3)} and
B is {(1,2), (2,2), (3,2), (4,2), (5,2), (6,2), (2,1), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6)}.
AB is {_________________________}

P(one of the dice shows 2 given the sum is 6)

Alternatively,
P(one of the dice shows 2 given the sum is 6)

Compare the above example with the problem where we just want to find the probability
that one of the dice shows 2.
How is this problem different from that given above?
Is P(B|A) = P(B)?

5 PROBLEM SOLVING TECHNIQUES IN PROBABILITY

1. Sample Space Diagrams or Tables

E.g. 5.1: A coin is tossed and a card is drawn from a pack of eight cards numbered 1 to 8. By
drawing a probability space diagram, find
(a) the probability that a head and a 4 are obtained;
(b) the probability that the outcome is a tail and a card greater than 5.

(a)
H
- - - - - - - -
T
- - - - - - - -
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
P(head and a 4) =
1
16
(from the diagram) or
1 1 1
2 8 16
= .
(b)
H
- - - - - - - -
T
- - - - - - - -
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
P(tail and a card greater than 5) =
3
16
(from the diagram) or
1 3 3
2 8 1
| |
=
|
\ .
6
.

E.g. 5.2: Two unbiased dice are thrown. Find the probability that the sum of the scores is less than
10, given that at least one of the dice shows a 5.

1 2 3 4 5 6
1
2
3
4
5
6
Solution: Let A be the event that sum < 10
and B be the event that at least one of the dice shows a
5.
Therefore P(A|B) =

E.g. 5.3: Two teams A and B play a football match against each other. The probabilities for each
team of scoring 0, 1, 2, 3 goals are shown in the table below:

Number of goals 0 1 2 3
Probability Team A 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1
of scoring Team B 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1

Calculate the probability of A winning assuming that the scoring for each team is
independent of each other.

Team A
0 1 2 3
Team B
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1
0 0.2
1 0.4
2 0.3
3 0.1
Solution:

We use the _____________________ to compute the probability in each cell since scorings for
both teams are ________________. The cells may be thought of as points in a sample space but
they do not represent equal probable events, unlike those in E.g. 5.1 and E.g. 5.2. They are
actually ______________________, hence we add up the respective probabilities.

2. Use of Venn Diagrams

E.g. 5.4: A dart is thrown at a board (as shown below) and is equally likely to land in any one of
the eight squares numbered 1 to 8 inclusive.

Dartboard:
1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8

A represents the event that the dart lands in square 5 or 8;
B represents the event that the dart lands in square 2, 3 or 4;
C represents the event that the dart lands in square 1, 2, 5 or 6.
Find:
(i) ( B A P ) (ii) ( ) C A P (iii) ( ) C B P
(iv) (v) ( ) B | A P ( ) C | B P (vi) ( ) A | C P
Which two events are mutually exclusive? Which two events are independent?

Solution:

(i) ( ) B A P =
(ii) ( C A P ) =
(iii) ( ) C B P =
(iv) = ( ) B | A P
(v) = ( ) C | B P
(vi) = ( ) A | C P

E.g. 5.5: Events A, B and C are such that A and B are independent, and A and C are mutually
exclusive. Given that ( ) 4 . 0 A P = , ( ) 2 . 0 B P = , ( ) 3 . 0 C P = and , calculate ( ) 1 . 0 C B P =
(i) (ii) ( B A P ) ( ) B | C P (iii) ( ) C A | B P .
Calculate the probability that one and only one of the events B, C will occur.

Since A and B are independent,
( ) ( ) ( ) P A B P A P B 0.4 0.2 0.08 = = = .

P(AB') = P(A) P(AB) = 0.4 0.08 = 0.32

P(CB') = P(C) P(CB) = 0.3 0.1 = 0.2

(i) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) P A B P A P B P A B 0.4 0.2 0.08 0.52 = + = + =
(ii) ( )
( )
( )
P C B
0.1
P C|B 0.5
P B 0.2
= = =
(iii) ( )
( ) ( )
( )
( ) ( ) ( )
( )
P B A C P B A B C
P B|A C
P A C P A C

= =

0.18 9

0.7 35
= =

P(one and only one of the events B, C occur) = 0.1 + 0.2 = 0.3

A
C
B

A B C
0.1 0.2
0.08
0.02
0.32
3. Use of Tree Diagrams

Tree diagrams are used when the problem involves
one experiment repeated many times;
a sequence of processes.

Suppose a process has a sequence of two experiments:
Experiment 1: outcomes A and A, where P(A) = p
Experiment 2: outcomes B and B, where P(B|A) = q, P(B|A) = r

Then, assuming that we start with experiment 1, the following tree diagram can illustrate
the possible outcomes:

P(AB) = P(A) P(B|A) = pq

P(AB) = P(A) P(B|A) = p(1q)

P(AB) = P(A) P(B|A) = (1p)r

P(AB) = P(A) P(B|A) = (1p)(1r)
B
q
A
p
1q
B'
B
r
1p
A'
1r
B'

E.g. 5.6: Three machines A, B and C produce 50%, 30% and 20% respectively of the total number
of items of a factory. The percentages of defective output of these machines are 3%, 4%
and 5% respectively.
(i) Find the probability that a randomly selected item is defective.
(ii) Given that a randomly selected item is defective, find the probability that the item
was produced by machine A.

Solution:
Let A denotes the event that an item is from machine A.
Let B denotes the event that an item is from machine B.
Let C denotes the event that an item is from machine C.
Let D
i
denotes the event that an item is defective from machine i, i = A,B,C.

D
A

D
B

D
B

A
B
C
D
C

D
A

D
C

E.g. 5.7: Two players A and B play a game by throwing a fair die alternately until one of them
throws a 6 to win. If A begins, find the probability that
(i) A wins, (ii) B wins.

(i) P(A wins)
1 5 5 1 5 5 5 5 1
...
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
| | | |
= + + +
| |
\ . \ .

2 4
1 5 1 5 1
...
6 6 6 6 6
| | | |
= + + +
| |
\ . \ .

( )
2 4
2
1 5 5 1 1
1 ...
6 6 6 6
5
1
6
(
(
| | | | (
= + + + = =
(
| |
(
\ . \ .
(

(

6
11

(ii) P(B wins)
6 5
1 P(A wins) 1
11 11
= = =

Note: the above example is also an example of problems involving an infinite Geometric
Progression (G.P.).

4. Problems Involving At Least Situations

E.g. 5.8: (a) Find the probability of obtaining at least one 6 when five dice are thrown.
(b) Find the probability of obtaining at least one 6 when n dice are thrown.
(c) How many dice must be thrown so that the probability of obtaining at least one 6 is
at least 0.99?

(a) P(at least one 6 when five dice are thrown)
= 1 P(no 6 when five dice are thrown)
=
5
5 4651
1
6 7776
| |
=
|
\ .
(b) P(at least one 6 when n dice are thrown) =
5
1
6
n
| |
|
\ .

(c) P(at least one 6 when n dice are thrown) > 0.99

5
.99
6
n
| |
>
|
\ .
1 0
n > 25.26
26 dice must be used.

A
win
lose
1
6

5
6

B
win
lose
A
win
lose
1
6
5
6
1
6
5
6

5. Use of Selections (Without Replacement)

E.g. 5.9: Three cards are drawn at random from a pack of 52 cards. Find the probability that
exactly two cards are aces. [Order is not important]

Solution: P(exactly two cards are aces) =

E.g. 5.10: A class consists of 8 boys and 7 girls. Four students are chosen at random to take part in a
Mathematics Quiz. Find the probability that
(i) exactly 2 girls are chosen, (ii) all 4 chosen are girls,
(iii) at least 1 boy is chosen.
(i) P(exactly 2 girls are chosen)
7 8
2 2 588 28
15 1365 65
4
| | | |
| |
\ . \ .
= =
| |
|
\ .
=
(ii) P(all 4 chosen are girls)
7
4 35 1
15 1365 39
4
| |
|
\ .
= = =
| |
|
\ .

(iii) P(at least 1 boy is chosen) =
1 3
1 P(4 girls are chosen) 1
39 39
=
8
=

E.g. 5.11: A certain class has 21 students consisting of 6 boys and 15 girls. Of the boys, 3 wear
glasses and of the girls, 7 wear glasses. Three students are chosen from the class. Find the
probability that
(i) they all wear glasses;
(ii) exactly two wear glasses;
(iii) they are all girls and at least one wear glasses;
(iv) at least one wear glasses, given that they are all girls;
(v) they all wear glasses, given that at least one wear glasses;

Solution:

(i) P(all wear glasses)
10
3 120 12
21 1330 133
3
| |
|
\ .
= = =
| |
|
\ .

With Glasses No Glasses
Boys 3 3 6
Girls 7 8 15
Total 10 11 21

6. Use of Probabilities

Lets revisit E.g. 5.9, E.g. 5.10 (i) (ii) and E.g. 5.11 (i) (iii) to see how the
probabilities can be computed via another method using probabilities directly.

E.g. 5.9: Alternative Solution:

Let A be event drawing an ace card. X be event drawing other than ace.
Required Probability
= P(AAX) + P(AXA) + P(XAA)
=
4 3 48 4 48 3 48 4 3
52 51 50 52 51 50 52 51 50
+ +
= P(choosing 2 aces & 1 others) Number of permutation of the 3 cards
=
4 3 48 3! 72
52 51 50 2! 5525
=


(i) P(exactly 2 girls are chosen) = P(GGBB) + + P(BBGG)
=
7 6 8 7 4! 2
15 14 13 12 2! 2! 65
=
8

(ii) P(all 4 chosen are girls) = P(GGGG) =
7 6 5 4
15 14 13 12
=
1
39


(i) P(all wear glasses) =
10 9 8 3! 12
21 20 19 3! 133
=
(ii) P(exactly two wear glasses) =
10 9 11 3! 99
21 20 19 2! 266
=
(iii) P(all girls and at least one wear glasses)
=
15 14 13 3! 8 7 6 3!
21 20 19 3! 21 20 19 3!
| | | |

| |
\ . \ .
=
3
10

As we can see from the above alternative solutions, the number of possible arrangements is important
here.

Please note that this method is more tedious because we have to take care of the number of
permutations whereas in the former method where we use selections, we do not need to take care of
this aspect.

Summary
( )
the number of ways in which event A can occur
P A
the total number of possible outcomes of the experiment
= 1.

2. ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) P A B P A P B P A B = +

3. Events A and B are mutually exclusive (disjoint) if and only if
P( A ) = P(A) + P(B) since B ( ) P A B 0 = .

4. Events A and B are independent if and only if P(A B) P(A) P(B) = .

5. ( )
( )
( ) B P
B A P
B | A P

=

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