3 percent chance of an attack that would kill 100,000, and a 0.

6 percent chance of one that would kill one million or more. These estimates need to be approache d cautiously. There is still considerable uncertainty, especially about the pote ntial for extremely large-scale events, and slightly different versions of this technique produce slightly different answers. However, there is one more instruc tive comparison to be made between terrorism and earthquakes. The Gutenberg Richte r law dictates that, over the long term, the frequency of earthquakes is reduced about ten times for every one-point increase in magnitude. Nate Silver (2012-09-04T14:00:00+00:00). The Signal and the Noise (Kindle Locati ons 7489-7494). Penguin Group, USA. Kindle Edition.