.

2005


.
.

.
:

2818

971 2 6324 454 :
2005
. .

2 ...............................................................................................
: 4 ........................................ Common Stock
: 13 .......................................... Preferred Stock
: 15 ........................................... Shares Valuation
: 36 ................................. Stock Strategies
: 42 ....................... The Measurement of Risk
: 46 .................................................................. Bonds

.





.



.

.


.

.
.
.

.

 : Common Stock
Common Stock



.
)(

.
.

.

.
.1
- Liquidation Value




.

 - Book Value

Accumulated
.

.
Book Value Per Share
) (

.
- Market Value
.

.



.
Equilibrium
Market Consense
.

 - Intrinsic Value

Fair Market Value

.

.

Over-valued

Under-valued

.
.


Disclosure

.
.

 .2
:
.1

.2

.3

:
.1

:

.
.

.2

.Pre-emptive Rights

.3 Rights Issues


.

 Pro-Rata
.


...
.
.

%20-15 .
.

.

. 200
160 .
3000
:

)(3x2.00) + (1x1.60
= 1.90
4
10 .
3000 :
.1

.2

.1

1.90 1.60 = 30

3000
= 1000
3
1000 x 0.30 = $300

300 . :
3000 2 6000 .
1.90 :
3000 x1.90 = 5700
6000 5700 = $300

.2

157
:

3000
=
3

= 1000

30
1000 x 0.30 = $300

300
= 157
1.60

:
3157 x1.90 = 5998

3157
3157
3000.

 .4

:
- Share Repurchase

.
.
. :
2.25
900 70 .
1.8 .
70.
1800000

900000

= 2

72 = 70 + 2
:
1800000
72

= 25000

:
900000 25000 = 875000

10

 :
2250000
900000

= 2.5

2250000
875000

= 2.57

.

.
.
Information content
72.

.
.
.
.
.
Capital Gain

.

.
Effective Rate .

11


.

.


%10 .

- Stock Dividends

.
.
.
/ .


.
30 200
) 6000 = (30 x 200 .
%10 ) 200 20 = (%10 x
) 220 / 6000 =( 27.3 .
30 27.3 .

12

 - Stock Split

.

.


.


.
.

Financial Signal
.
: Preferred Stock

Preferred Stock

. :

.

.

13



.

. .
.1

.

.


.

.

. .

.

.

14


.
.


Cumulative Feature .


.
: Shares Valuation

.


.
.1 Fundamental Analysis

.
.

15


.

.
- Financial Ratios Analysis

.
.

.
.

.


.

.
.

16

) (1 Liquidity Ratios

.

.
:
-

)( Current Ratio

.

=

.
.

.

17

)( Acid Ratio

.
=


.
.
)( Working Capital

.
.
) (2 Leverage Ratio

18



.


.

.

.
) (3

.

.Interest Coverage :
=


.

19

) (4 Profitability Ratios

.
)( Profit Margin

.
.
:
=

)( Return on Assets

.
.
.
)( Return on Equity

20



.
.
.1 Earnings

.
.
.

.

.

.

.
.2 Earnings Per Share

.
.
.
10

21

 5 2 .

.
.3 / Price/ Earning Ratio

.

. .
50
5 .10

.

.Price-to-Sales Ratio
.4 Price to Earning Growth Ratio

.Overvalued
.
.
.
.

22

 .
40 %20
.2
.
.5 Dividend Yield

.
.
2 40
.%5

.
.6 Dividend Payout Ratio

.
.
1
2 .%50
%50 .

.

.

23

 .7 / Price/ Sales Ratio

.
1 2
/ .0.5
.
.
.
.8 Book Value

.
.

.
.
.
.9 / Price/ Book Value

.
100 5
.20
.
.

24

 .10 Return on-equity

.
)
( .
. .
-

.

.
.
) (1 Time Value of Money

.
100 100 :
.1

: 100 100
"
".

.2

.
:

.3

:
.

25


.


.

:
-

.

.

.
) (2 Present Value

.
100 100
%10
100
110 100
110 .

26

 ) + 1 (
:

110
)(1 + 0.1

= 100

=
+ 1)n (
133

.%10
133
133
=
=
1.33 (1+ 0.10)3

= 100

.
.
) (3

""Over-valued
"."Under-valued

" ."Intrinsic Value

.

27

 .
.
.


. .

... .
.
.



.

.

. :
)(

Zero-Growth Model
Constant-Growth Model

)(

) (

Variable-Growth Model

28

)( Zero-Growth Model

. :
P = Dt / Ke
:
=

= Dt
=

Ke

5
.%5
5

0.05
= 100.

.

29

)( Constant-Growth Model

)P = Dt / (Ke -g
:
=

= Dt
=

Ke

= g
3
%10 .
.%12 :
)3(1 + .10
3.3
=
= 165
)(0.12 0.10
0.02

. .
.
.
)( Variable-Growth Model

. :

[ ]

P = D 0 (1 + g1) t / (1+ K ) t + Dn (1 + g 2) t n /(1 + K e) t

t =1

t n

30

 :
= g1
= g2

= P

= D0

= Dn

= Ke

:
3
%21
.%6
.%14
:
.1

%21.

.2

.3

%6 .

.4

0
1
2
3
4
5

%21
3
3.63
4.39
5.31
6.42
7.77

31

%14
0
0.877
0.769
0.675
0.592
0.519

0
3.18
3.38
3.58
3.80
4.03
$17.97

 .$ 17.97
:
)7.77(1 + .06
= 102.95
(0.14 0.6
:
102.95 x 0.519 = $53.4
P = 53.4 + 17.97 = $71.4
.$71.4
$80
$65
.
.
.


. :
80
77 74 73 68
.
.%15

32

1
2
3
4
5

68
73
74
77
80

/
1.073
1.013
1.040
1.038

= = 4 1.073x1.013x1.040 x1.038
1.17338 -1

= 1.040 1 = %4
)80(1 + 0.04
=
)(0.15 0.04

= $7.6

.2 Technical Analysis

.

... .

.

.

33


. :
- Support Level

) ( .
- Resistance Level

.
- Breakout

.
- Advance-Decline Line

.
- Moving Averages

.
200 100 50 30 20 .

. .

34


.

. 20
200.
- Relative Strength

.

100-1 .
90
%90 .

.
- Momentum

.
.
.


.

35

 - Charts

. .....
: Stock Strategies

:
.1 Buy and Hold

.

.

.

.
.
.2 Market Timing

.
.

36


:
-

.3 Growth

.

.

.
/
.
.
.4 Value Shares

.

.

37

 .5 Growth at a Reasonable Price

.
.

.
.6 Quality Share

.

.
.7 Income Share

. .
.
.8

.
%20
.%25

38

 30 .


.



.
Insiders
.
.9 Short Selling

.


.
100

. )(
.
.
) (
.

.

39



.
.
-

.


.

.
.

.
.

40



. .


.
.
-

/
.
41

: The Measurement of Risk

.

.
-

A B :
A

B
% B

18

.05

10

0.05

12

.25

20

0.20

28

0.40

20

0.50

28

0.25

25

0.20

38

0.05

25

0.05
1.00

B A
:

42

 = x

) Pi X(R i R i

i =1

:
:

Pi

Ri

Ri

.
:A
(0.05x10) + (0.20x20) + (0.50x20) + (0.20x25) + (0.05x25) = 20.75 %
:B
(0.05x18) + (0.25x12) + (0.40x28) + (0.25x28) + (0.25x28) +
(0.05x38) = 24%
A
2

[(0.05 x (10-20.75) + (0.20 x (20-20.75) ) + (0.50 x (20-20.75)2) +

(0.25 x (28-24)2) + (0.05 x (38-24)2]1/2 = 7.62%
B
)((0.05x(18-24)2) + (0.25x(12-24)2 + (0.40x28-24)2) + (0.25x(28-24)2
+ (0.05x(38-24)2)1/2 = 7.62%
B A .

43

 :


:
n

i =1 R
i

2
) (R i R i

i =1

:
:

Ri

Ri

A B
.
B

14.8

14

-7.8

12.6

19.9

-9.0

-5.9

5.6

24.5

6.6

44

 A:
(14 + 12.6 9 + 5.6 + 6.5)/5 = 5.96%
B:
(14.8 7.8 + 19.9 5.9 + 24.5)/5 = 9.10%
:A
((14 5.96)2 + (12.6 5.96)2 + (-9- 5.96)2 + (5.6 5.96)2 +
(6.6 5.96)2)/5)1/2 = 8.16%
B
((14.8 9.10)2 + (-7.8 9.10)2 + (19.9 9.10)2 + (-5.9 9.10)2 +
(24.5 9.10)2 / 5)1/2 = 13.39%
B A .
.

45

 : Bonds

.
)(
.
) (
) (
.
. 1000
.
1000 %12
120 = 12% x1000 .
60 .

.
20 %12
60 20 1000

.
.
.
.

46

 .1 Bonds Valuation

.

.

%10 $57.14 = 60/(1+0.5)1
.
:
100 %10

%12 5.
:
10 5
100 .
.

1
2
3
4
5

%12
.893
.797
.712
.636
.567

10
10
10
10
110

47

8.93
7.97
7.12
6.36
62.37
92.75


5
.%10
%5

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
105

%6
.943
.890
.840
.792
.747
.705
.665
.627
.592
.558

4.72
4.45
4.2
3.96
3.74
3.53
3.33
3.14
2.96
58.59
92.62

) (100

.

48

 .2

.
.
.
- Bond Issuer

.

.

:
-

Euro Bond

.
.
.
-

Foreign Bonds

49

Global Bonds

.
- Priority

.
) (Senior
.


.
- Coupon Rate

:
-

. %6
.LIBOR

50

.
.
-

Call ability

.Call Price
.

. .


%14 .%10


.

.
.
-

Convertible Bonds

51


.

.Conversion Price
$40 1000
25 ) (1000/40 25 .
. 100
) 10 = (100/1000.

. .
10
115 1150 = 10x115
. 1080


1080 .
:
1000
.
-

Puttable Bonds

. .

.

52

Bonds Premium

1030
.
1000 30
.
-

Zero Coupon Bonds

.
1000 900
.
1000 100
.
- Bond Duration

.

. .
.
%10
.
.%7

.
:

53

 = ) x (

)Duration: (Present Value at Cash Flow x time to Cash flow

Price at the bond

[
]
] ) [cf /(1 + r

t
) tcf /(1 + r

t =1
n

=D

t =1

:
1000 %8 5.
.%8
.1

80 .

.2

.3

1
1
2
3
4
5

2
80
80
80
80
1080

3
0.917
0.842
0.772
0.708
0.650

(3 x 2 )4
73.36
67.36
61.76
56.64
702
961.12

)(4x1
73.36
134.72
185.28
226.56
3510
4130

54

4130
= 4.2
961.12

=D

:
.1

.
.

.2

.
.

.3

.

.
.

55

.


.

Modified Duration
.
1
)(1 + i

Modified Duration = Duration x

1
= 3.85
1.09

MD = 4.2 x

.
%9 %10
)= 3.85 x (0.10
= 0.385

56

 :
$961.12 x (0.385) = $37
%9 %10
:

1
2
3
4
5

80
80
80
80
1080

0.909
0.826
0.751
0.683
0.621

72.72
66.08
60.08
54.64
670.68
924.2

961.1 924.2 36.9

.$37
Convexity


.


.

57

 .2 Convexity

.


.

58

1.

Head, A and Watsor Denzil, 2001, Corporate Finance, Principles

& Practice,, Second Edition.

2.

Pike, R. and Neale B., 1999, Corporate Finance and Investment,

Decisions and Strategies. Third Edition.

3.

www.ameritrade.com

4.

www.Fool.com

5.

www.finpipe.com

59