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  • Unemployment Update Mar 09

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    BLS National Unemployment Rate (U3) U-3 SA % unemployment % unemployment (u6 SA) BLS National Unemployment Rate (u6) 0 National U3 SA NY City U3 SA NJ state and NY City unemployment rates NY, NJ, and National U3 % unemployment. Notice the sudden spike in the magnitude of the Seasonal adjustment. Is this an increased fudge factor by the Gov to make numbers look better or a different explanation?

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    Unemployment update Mar 09

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    BLS National Unemployment Rate (U3) U-3 SA % unemployment % unemployment (u6 SA) BLS National Unemployment Rate (u6) 0 National U3 SA NY City U3 SA NJ state and NY City unemployment rates NY, NJ, and National U3 % unemployment. Notice the sudden spike in the magnitude of the Seasonal adjustment. Is this an increased fudge factor by the Gov to make numbers look better or a different explanation?

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    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF or read online from Scribd
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    129 views4 pages

    Unemployment Update Mar 09

    Uploaded by

    kettle1
    BLS National Unemployment Rate (U3) U-3 SA % unemployment % unemployment (u6 SA) BLS National Unemployment Rate (u6) 0 National U3 SA NY City U3 SA NJ state and NY City unemployment rates NY, NJ, and National U3 % unemployment. Notice the sudden spike in the magnitude of the Seasonal adjustment. Is this an increased fudge factor by the Gov to make numbers look better or a different explanation?

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 4

    % Unemployment % Unemployment

    19 19

    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    6
    8
    10
    12
    14
    16
    18
    94 94

    19 19
    95 95

    19 19
    U6 SA
    96 96

    U-3 SA
    19 19
    97 97

    19 19
    98 98
    U-6 NSA

    U3 NSA
    19 19
    99 99

    20 20
    00 00

    20 20
    01 01

    20 20
    02 02

    20 20
    03 03

    20 20
    04 04

    20 20
    05 05

    BLS National Unemployment Rate (U3)


    BLS National Unemployment Rate (U6)

    20 20
    06 06

    20 20
    07 07

    20 20
    08 08

    20 20
    09 09
    -0.6
    -0.4
    -0.2
    0
    0.2
    0.4
    0.6
    0.8
    1
    -1.5
    -1
    -0.5
    0
    0.5
    1
    1.5
    2
    Jan-94 Jan-94
    Jul-94 Jul-94
    Jan-95 Jan-95

    Jul-95 Jul-95
    Jan-96 Jan-96

    Jul-96 Jul-96
    Jan-97 Jan-97
    Jul-97 Jul-97
    Jan-98 Jan-98
    Jul-98 Jul-98
    Jan-99 Jan-99
    Jul-99 Jul-99
    Jan-00 Jan-00
    Jul-00 Jul-00
    Jan-01 Jan-01
    Jul-01 Jul-01
    Jan-02 Jan-02
    (U3 NSA - U3 SA)
    (U6 NSA - U6 SA)

    Jul-02 Jul-02
    Jan-03 Jan-03
    BLS National U3 Adjustment
    BLS National U6 Adjustment

    Jul-03 Jul-03
    Jan-04 Jan-04
    Jul-04 Jul-04
    Jan-05 Jan-05
    Jul-05 Jul-05
    Jan-06 Jan-06
    Jul-06 Jul-06
    Jan-07 Jan-07
    Jul-07 Jul-07
    Jan-08 Jan-08
    Jul-08 Jul-08
    Jan-09 Jan-09
    0
    2
    4
    6
    8
    10
    12
    14

    0
    2
    4
    6
    8
    10
    12
    Jan-94 Jan-86
    Jan-87
    Jan-95
    Jan-88
    Jan-96 Jan-89
    Jan-90
    Jan-97
    Jan-91
    Jan-98 Jan-92
    Jan-93
    Jan-99
    Jan-94

    Jan-00 Jan-95
    Jan-96
    Jan-01
    Jan-97

    NJ U3 SA
    Jan-02 Jan-98
    Jan-99
    Jan-03 Jan-00

    Jan-04 Jan-01
    NY, NJ, and National U3

    Jan-02
    Ny City U3 SA
    Jan-05 Jan-03
    Jan-04
    NJ U3 NSA

    Jan-06
    NJ state and NY City Unemployment Rates

    Jan-05
    Ny City U3 NSA

    Jan-07 Jan-06
    Jan-07
    National U-3 SA

    Jan-08
    Jan-08
    Jan-09 Jan-09
    NY, NJ, and National U6
    22.0
    20.0 NJ U6 (SA) NY U6 (SA) National U6 (SA)

    18.0
    % unemployment

    16.0
    14.0
    12.0
    10.0
    8.0
    6.0
    4.0
    2.0
    0.0
    Jan-86
    Jan-87
    Jan-88
    Jan-89
    Jan-90
    Jan-91
    Jan-92
    Jan-93
    Jan-94
    Jan-95
    Jan-96
    Jan-97
    Jan-98
    Jan-99
    Jan-00
    Jan-01
    Jan-02
    Jan-03
    Jan-04
    Jan-05
    Jan-06
    Jan-07
    Jan-08
    Jan-09
    U3 and U6 National Unemployment Rate
    1900 - 2009
    40

    U6 U3
    35

    30

    25
    % Unemployment

    20

    15

    10

    0
    1900
    1904
    1908
    1912
    1916
    1920
    1924
    1928
    1932
    1936
    1940
    1944
    1948
    1952
    1956
    1960
    1964
    1968
    1972
    1976
    1980
    1984
    1988
    1992
    1996
    2000
    2004
    2008

    Comments:

    On page 2, note the sudden spike in the magnitude of the Seasonal adjustment. Is this an
    increased fudge factor by the Gov to make numbers look better or is there a different
    explanation?

    Notice the sudden convergence of the national, NY City, and NJ unemployment rates
    right around 2007.

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