TRANSPORTATION MODELING

QUOTABLE QUOTES

"After I'm dead I'd rather have people ask why I have no monument than why I have one. - Cato the Elder
(234-149 BC, AKA Marcus Porcius Cato)

RANSPORTATION MODELING
Transportation Modeling or Transportation Forecastingis the process of estimating the number of vehicles or people that will use a specific transportationfacilityin the future. For instance, a forecast may estimate; a) number of vehicles on a plannedroadorbridge b) ridership on arailwayline c) number of passengers visiting anairport d) number of ships calling on aseaport

hat does it mean?

RANSPORTATION MODELING
Traffic forecasting begins with the collection of data on current traffic. This traffic data is combined with other known data, such as population, employment, trip rates, travel costs, etc., to develop a traffic demand model for the current situation. Feeding it with predicted data for population, employment, etc. results in estimates of future traffic, typically estimated for each segment of the transportation infrastructure in question, e.g., for each roadway segment or railway station.

w is it done?

RANSPORTATION MODELING
Traffic forecasts are used for several key purposes in transportation policy, planning, and engineering: a) to calculate the capacity of infrastructure, e.g., how many lanes a bridge should have; b) to estimate the financial and social viability of projects, e.g., using cost-benefit analysis and social impact assessment ; and c) to calculate environmental impacts, e.g., air pollution and noise

hy is it important?

RANSPORTATION MODELING
Within the rational planning framework, transportation forecasts have traditionally followed the sequential four-step model or Urban Transportation Planning (UTP) procedure, first implemented on mainframe computers in the 1950s at the Detroit Area Transportation Study and Chicago Area Transportation Study (CATS).

r-step Model

RANSPORTATION MODELING
Four-step Model: The 1st Step Trip Generation.
Determines the frequency of origins or destinations of trips in each zone by trip purpose, as a function of land uses and household demographics, and other socioeconomic factors.

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Four-step Model: The 2nd Step Trip Distribution.
Determines the origin or destination of trips that are generated at a given activity.

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Four-step Model: The 3rd Step Modal Split.
Determines which mode of transportation will be used to make the trip.

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Four-step Model: The 4th Step Traffic Assignment.
Determines which route on the transportation network will be used when making the trip.

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Four-step Model: Diagram

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ocedural Summary

RANSPORTATION MODELING
a) for nine out of ten railway projects the study found that passenger forecasts were overestimated, with an average overestimate of 106% b) for half (50%+) of all road projects, including bridges and tunnels, the study found that the difference between actual and forecast traffic was more than 20%, while for 25% of road projects the difference was more than 40%

accuracy Issues?!

-Flyvbjerg, Holm, and Buhl (January 2006). "Inaccuracy in Traffic Forecasts". Vol. 26, No. 1, 124. Transport Reviews.

FUN FACTS & TRIVIAS

TheDanyang Kunshan Grand Bridge, in China,is the world's longest bridge. It is a164.8 kilometers (102.4mi)long.
Longest Bridge?
Widest Highway? With 26 lanes in certain parts, theKaty Freewayor Interstate 10, in USA, is the widest highway in the world. It serves more than 219,000 vehicles daily in Texas.

Pro Deo, Familia et Patria

The End