INDIAN GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) CALCULATION & ANALYSIS

2009
ABHIJIT SAMANTA
Data taken up to March 2009. Source of Data: Business Beacon (CMIE, Centre for M
onitoring Indian Economy)
INTERNATIONAL SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
&
MEDIA; KOLKATA

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METHODOLOGY: Required data is collected from CMIE Business Beacon. The calculati
on of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is done on two approaches 1. The Expenditure
Approach. 2. Summed up gross domestic product from various sectors. The required
calculations are done on Microsoft Excel and then copied on MS Word. In represe
nting the growth, variations and the relationship with factors are represented o
n 2 dimensional graphs and analysis is done. The period used for GDP calculation
is 1990-2009, last 20 years. In some of the calculations data up to 2008 is tak
en because of the non availability of 2009 data.
GDP Calculation with expenditure approach: In this method first we find out various categories of final expenditure which a
re: 1. 2. 3. 4. Private Consumption Expenditure. (C ) Govt. final consumption ex
penditure. (G ) Expenditure on gross capital investment. (I ) Net export of good
s and services. (N Ex)
Then we add up all the individual gross expenditure to find out the GDP (Gross D
omestic Product). Net export of goods and services = Export of goods and service
s
Import of goods and services. The calculation is shown below.
GDP = C+ G + I + N Ex.

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All at constant price Year Private final Consumption Expenditure (C ) (Rs. Core)
786725 821863 839593 861245 898682 942359 999729 1077445 1109656 1181797 125364
3 1293822 1373355 1409960 1497146 1574565 1687118 1793691 1945668 2001488 Govern
ment final Consumption Expenditure (G (Rs. Core) 138219 142914 142674 147599 156
360 158523 170895 178825 198947 223204 252744 255087 260879 259960 266599 276125
293265 309293 332033 399262 Gross Capital Investment (I ) (Rs. Core) ) 244049 2
70707 245108 278074 270165 321731 382142 344795 396774 407811 509518 485049 5021
16 554734 633105 781622 930738 1060108 1220412 1322101 -3748 1974 10073 -2746 -8
575 -21015 -22864 -8058 -36060 -55373 -38005 -5734 174 32771 7532 27679 -72090 108306 -148012 -209060 1165245 1237458 1237448 1284172 1316632 1401598 1529902 1
593007 1669317 1757439 1977900 2028224 2136524 2257425 2404382 2659991 2839031 3
054786 3350101 3513791 Net Exports of GDP = Good & Services C+G+I+N Ex (N Ex) (R
s. Core) (Rs. Core)
Mar-90 Mar-91 Mar-92 Mar-93 Mar-94 Mar-95 Mar-96 Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar
-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09
GDP GROWTH ANALYSIS: The year to year growth analysis of GDP (in next page) shows that in the last 20
years period maximum growth in GDP occurred in 2000 with 12.54%. The minimum gr
owth occurred in 1992 and there were no negative growth in the last 20 years of
period. However a clearer picture of GDP year to year growth is given with the a
pplication of a chart on the next page.

Page |4 Year Growth (%) 6.20 0.00 3.78 2.53 6.45 9.15 4.12 4.79 5.28 12.54 2.54
5.34 5.66 6.51 10.63 6.73 7.60 9.67 4.89
Mar-90 Mar-91 Mar-92 Mar-93 Mar-94 Mar-95 Mar-96 Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar
-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09
GDP Growth (%)
14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 -2.00
Growth (%) GDP GROWTH overall (exact figure)
4000000 3500000 3000000 2500000 GDP 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 Jan/91 Jan/
92 Jan/93 Jan/94 Jan/95 Jan/96 Jan/98 Jan/99 Jan/00 Jan/01 Jan/02 Jan/03 Jan/04
Jan/05 Jan/06 Jan/07 Jan/08 Jan/09 GDP
Jan/90
Jan/97
YEAR

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Proportions of various factors in GDP: Proportion of various factors in GDP
100% % OF GDP 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Net Exports of Good & Services (N Ex) (Rs. Cror
e) Gross Capital Investment (I ) (Rs. Crore) Government final Consumption Expend
iture (G ) (Rs. Crore) Private final Consumption Expenditure (C ) (Rs. Crore)
The above picture shows the proportion of various components in GDP. We can see
that Private final consumption expenditure contributes a maximum proportion in G
DP almost 63% and Net export contributes a very minimum portion.
GDP as summed up final production from various sectors: In this approach we foun
d out the final production of goods and services from various sectors and then w
e sum up them to find out the GDP. The various sectors here are Agriculture, for
estry, fishing, mining etc.
GDP =
Production from all the sectors.
Here the calculated GDP can vary with the previous calculation. It the only beca
use of non availability of proper data covering all the sectors.

Page |6 Year Agricul ture Fores Fishi try & ng loggi ng Minin g & quarr ying Man
ufact uring registere d Manufact uring unregiste red Electri Constru city, ction
gas & water supply Trade , hotel, trans port & comm . Financ e, insura nce, rea
l estate and busine ss servic es 10796 2 11467 0 12707 9 13399 9 14896 2 15475 1
16727 6 17762 7 19842 3 21390 2 23355 0 24304 8 26073 7 28155 0 29725 0 32308 0
35988 8 40947 2 45758 4 Social & perso nal servic es GDP = of all secto r
Mar90 Mar91 Mar92 Mar93 Mar94 Mar95 Mar96 Mar97 Mar98 Mar99 Mar00 Mar01 Mar02 Ma
r03 Mar04 Mar05 Mar06 Mar07 Mar08
29872 0 31150 0 30430 1 32577 7 33613 6 35206 9 34862 6 38488 6 37344 6 40003 0
40966 0 40717 6 43347 5 39820 6 44136 0 44164 7 46798 4 48701 0 51127 4
1649 9 1628 0 1640 7 1602 3 1594 6 1637 0 1630 7 1655 3 1695 9 1715 9 1791 6 183
9 9 1896 4 1909 0 1887 2 1927 6 1953 6 2000 5 2043 2
115 54 121 13 125 49 136 21 151 49 161 11 169 43 183 19 186 34 177 03 189 39 198
28 208 10 216 71 224 44 219 87 235 94 243 00 254 16
26266 29014 29988 30264 30685 33535 35502 35699 39201 40309 41594 42589 43335 47
168 48626 52591 55164 60038 61999
96057 101467 100189 102253 113746 128578 149064 165070 160760 166338 173003 1865
70 195107 209909 224919 245343 268100 299329 321985
58543 60512 57905 60726 63236 67555 77394 82904 87342 89534 91110 98001 96696 10
1776 107444 115772 125742 140864 154318
22082 23559 25843 27636 29710 32495 34704 36593 39417 42189 44526 45439 46228 48
423 50735 54745 57513 60544 63730
59336 66330 67696 70053 70452 74243 78683 80158 88553 94109 102007 108362 112692
121650 136224 158212 183868 205543 226325
18904 3 19877 0 20389 7 21527 1 23014 1 25287 5 28623 2 30932 8 33258 0 35801 4
38751 4 41565 0 45384 7 49669 1 55637 0 61584 9 69039 9 77889 5 87539 8
1431 19 1493 57 1532 19 1624 00 1696 54 1734 93 1862 44 2012 41 2179 48 2391 23
2667 07 2792 39 2907 15 3021 53 3185 14 3402 66 3643 13 3851 18 4112 56
1029 181 1083 572 1099 073 1158 023 1223 817 1302 075 1396 975 1508 378 1573 263
1678 410 1786 526 1864 301 1972 606 2048 287 2222 758 2388 768 2616 101 2871 11
8 3129 717

Page |7 Mar09 64244 65899 242577 95458 9 49335 6 4649 26 2285 591
Growth in various sectors: The growth in various sectors in put over graphs. And
form the graphs the growth of different sectors can be easily identified. Howev
er we have done a comparative analysis of growth in various sectors. That is dis
cussed later.
Agricultural Sector
600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 Jan/90 Jan/92 Jan/96 Jan/98 Jan/00 J
an/02 Jan/04 Jan/06 Jan/08 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Jan/90
Forestry & logging
Jan/92
Jan/94
Jan/96
Jan/98
Jan/00
Jan/02
Jan/04
Jan/94
Fishing
30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Jan/90 Jan/92 Jan/94 Jan/96 Jan/98 Jan/00 J
an/02 Jan/04 Jan/06 80000 60000 40000 20000 0
Mining & quarrying
Jan/90
Jan/92
Jan/94
Jan/96
Jan/98
Jan/00
Jan/02
Jan/04
Jan/06
Jan/08
Jan/08
Jan/08
Jan/06

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Manufacturing (Registered & Unregistered)
400000 300000 200000 100000 0 Jan/92 Jan/94 Jan/96 Jan/98 Jan/00 Jan/02 Jan/04 J
an/06 Jan/08 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0
Electricity, gas & water supply
Jan/90
Jan/90
Jan/92
Jan/94
Jan/96
Jan/98
Jan/00
Jan/02
Jan/04
Jan/06
Manufacturing registered Manufacturing unregistered
Construction
300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 Jan/90 Jan/92 Jan/94 Jan/98 Jan/00 Ja
n/02 Jan/04 Jan/06 Jan/08
Trade, hotel, transport & comm.
1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0
Finance, insurance, real estate and business services
600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 Jan/90 Jan/92 Jan/94 Jan/98 Jan/00 J
an/02 Jan/04 Jan/06 Jan/08
Jan/96
Social & personal services
500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0
Jan/96
Jan/08

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Comparative Growth Analysis of various sectors: In the previous section the grow
th of each individual sector was shown however it was not possible form that sec
tion to understand the comparative growth of various sectors. This comparative g
rowth of various sectors is discussed here and are shown on graphical representa
tion.
Sector
Production 2008 (Rs. Core)
511274 20432 25416 61999 321985 154318 63730 226325 875398 457584 411256
Production 1990 (Rs. Core)
298720 16499 11554 26266 96057 58543 22082 59336 189043 107962 143119
Avg. Total Growth growth rate yearly (%) (%)
3.74 1.25 6.31 7.16 12.38 8.61 9.93 14.81 19.11 17.04 9.86 71.15 23.84 119.98 13
6.04 235.20 163.60 188.61 281.43 363.07 323.84 187.35
Agriculture Forestry & logging Fishing Mining & quarrying Manufacturing register
ed Manufacturing unregistered Electricity, gas & water supply Construction Trade
, hotel, transport & comm. Finance, insurance, real estate and business services
Social & personal services

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Avg. Growth rate yearly (%)
25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 400.00 350.00 300.00 250.00 200.00 150.00 100.
00 50.00 0.00
Total growth 90-09 (%)

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Comparative Growth Picture
1000000 900000 800000 700000 Production 600000 500000 Manufacturing registered 4
00000 300000 200000 100000 Construction 0 Trade, hotel, transport & comm. Manufa
cturing unregistered Electricity, gas & water supply Forestry & logging Fishing
Mining & quarrying Agriculture
Form the above analysis we get a very clear picture of the growth rate comparati
ve in various sectors. As we can see the Hotel, Comm. sector achieved the maximu
m growth. Over the last 20 years the comm. sector achieved a growth of 363.07 %.
And the least growth is achieved by forestry and logging sector only 23.84 % an
d on average yearly basis 1.25%.
Correlation analysis: If we analysis the change of every individual sector with
the change in the overall GDP. Then we can find out a correlation between the GD
P and every individual sector. The further analysis of this correlation shows th
at all the sectors are having correlation of nearly equal to 1. It means that th
ere is a strong positive relationship between the GDP and the production of ever
y sector. Thought some of the sectors do not contribute very much to the proport
ion of GDP but the change with the change of GDP is very significant.

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Sector
Agriculture Forestry & logging Fishing Mining & quarrying Manufacturing register
ed Manufacturing unregistered Electricity, gas & water supply Construction Trade
, hotel, transport & comm. Finance, insurance, real estate and business services
Social & personal services
Correlation with GDP
0.974985798 0.959794682 0.956385003 0.995154935 0.9962302 0.994720885 0.98218774
0.985274669 0.997350757 0.998748627 0.991205803
Corelation with GDP
1.01 1 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93
Variance analysis: Now in the history of economy every sector does not perform w
ell at every time. In practice for every sector a lot of variation and fluctuati
on takes place in terms of annual production. To get an idea over it that is whi
ch sector perform constantly and which sector s production vary too much we do a var
iance analysis. In this we have calculated the Standard Deviation of every secto
rs production over the last 20 years and found out the variation result.

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Sector
Agriculture Forestry & logging Fishing Mining & quarrying Manufacturing register
ed Manufacturing unregistered Electricity, gas & water supply Construction Trade
, hotel, transport & comm. Finance, insurance, real estate and business services
Social & personal services
SD
60927.65 1467.74 4108.95 10420.77 66512.39 27493.57 12354.62 48456.56 201302.53
98921.99 84033.31
Standard Deviation
Social & personal services Finance, insurance, real estate and business Trade, hot
el, transport & comm. Construction Electricity, gas & water supply Manufacturing
unregistered Manufacturing registered Mining & quarrying Fishing Forestry & log
ging Agriculture 0.00 50000.00 100000.00 150000.00 200000.00 250000.00
The above analysis shows that that the Trade, Hotel, Transport & Comm. Sector is
the most fluctuating sector in terms of production. The fluctuation of producti
on of this sector is almost double than that of most of the other sectors.