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CO
M

R
W EE E K L Y
P
O
R
T

16 DEC - 20 DEC 2013

Buy on fear, sell on greed.

Buy on the rumor, sell

on the news.

The trend is your friend.

Amateurs want to be

right.

Professionals want to make money.

MARKET EVENTS

MARKET OUTLOOK

Rupee continues to
trade weaker; focus
now on WPI, RBI policy.
Prospect of rate hike
after inflation surge
hits rupee, bonds.
Dollar, euro at fiveyear yen highs on Fed
taper talk.
Sterling dips back
towards 1-month low
CURRENCI
ES

PREVIOUS
RATE

CURRENT
RATE

%
CHANGE

USDINR

61.8650

62.3575

0.79

EURINR

84.5625

85.5300

1.14

GBPINR
JPYINR

101.1850
60.6100

101.4975
60.1825

The rupee fell and bond

yields surged on Friday after
retail inflation spiked to its
highest on record, raising
expectations for another rate
hike by the Reserve Bank of
India (RBI) and adding to the
woes
of
the
embattled
government. Sharply higher
food prices drove up retail
inflation to 11.24 per cent in
November from 10.17 per
cent
in
October,
data
released on Thursday shows.
Factory
output,
however,
showed a contraction in
October,
muddying
the
waters for the central bank,
which will also be under
pressure
from
the
KEY RATES
13/12/2013a
government
to As on
support
fledging economic recovery.
REFERENCE
RATE (USD)

62.1266

REPO RATE

7.75%

REVERSE REPO

6.75%

CRR

4%

INFLATION

7.00%

0.30
-0.70

USDINR

USDINR last week took support around its previous level of 61.0500 and showed
a strong bounce back towards the crucial level of 62.0000. Now, 23.6%
retracement of 63.1200 is seen as strict resistance level from where reversals
may be seen. While on lower side, if it sustains below 61.6000 then selling
pressure may drag towards the key support of 61.0000.
EURINR

EURINR last week showed positive momentum and moved towards the
resistance mark of 85.6000. On weekly charts, it has been moving in tight range
between 86.2600-82.8800 since last few weeks and hence a proper breakout in
needed to decide the trend further. For the coming week, immediate resistance

PIVOT TABLE
CURRENCI
ES

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

USDINR

61.6000

60.9000

59.9500

63.0500

63.8000

65.1000

EURINR

84.7000

84.0000

83.2000

86.3000

87.5000

88.6000

GBPINR

100.7000

99.8000

98.7000

102.2000

103.1000

104.1000

JPYINR

59.2000

58.4000

57.3000

61.0000

61.7000

62.6000

Yen Strengthens From Five-Year Low on Fed

Views; Pound Weakens.
Brazil Real Rises as Intervention Offsets Fed
Stimulus Concern.
INTERNATIONAL UPDATES
Aussie Dollars Longest Drop in 28 Years
BLOOMBE
Driven by RBA Comments.
PREVIOUS

DATE

TIME

COUNTRY

EVENT

RG
ESTIMATE

LEVEL

17-Dec2013

07:0
0 PM

US

Core CPI m/m

0.1%

0.1%

18-Dec2013

11:0
0 AM

INDIA

RBI Monetary
Policy

7.75%

19-Dec2013

07:0
0 PM

US

Unemployme
nt Claims

336k

368k

19-Dec2013

12:3
0 PM

US

FOMC
Statement

DISCLAIMER

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