EEL 6266 Power System Operation and Control

Chapter 8 Production Cost Models

Introduction
Production cost models
are computational models designed to calculate information for long-range system planning:
generation system production costs energy import requirements availability of energy for sale to other systems fuel consumption

employees models of expected load patterns and simulated operation of the systems generation
uncertainty of load forecasts reliability of generating units expected need for emergency energy and capacity supplies

uses statistical computational methods for solving problems

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Introduction
Stochastic production cost models
used for long range studies the risk of sudden, random, generating unit failures and random deviations for the mean forecasted load are treated as probability distributions load modeling considers the behaviors of the expected load patterns that cover periods of weeks, months, and/or years
the load duration cover expresses the time period that the loading is expected to equal or exceed a given power value

generating unit modeling includes fuel costs usually expressed over a monthly basis
generating unit scheduled maintenance outages may involve time periods from days to years
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Introduction
Types of production cost studies
Load Model total energy or load duration load duration or load cycles Interval under Consideration seasons or years months or weeks Economic Dispatch Procedure block loading (w/o regard to incr. costs) incremental loading incremental loading with forced outages incremental loading with losses Long-Range Operation Weekly Planning Planning Schedules

load duration months, weeks, or load cycles or days load cycles weeks or days

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EEL 6266 Power System Operation and Control

Load-duration Curves
Representation of future loads in which the impact of capacity limitations will be studied Building the load-duration curve
consider the expected load pattern build a histogram of load for a given time period and find the load density function, p(x) integrate the load density function to obtain the load distribution function, Pn(x)
Pn ( x ) = 1 p ( x ) dx
x
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Load (MW)

p(L) Probability that load = L MW

Time (h)
probability density function

Load L (MW) P(L) Probability load L MW

1.0

cumulative distribution function

0.0

Load L (MW)
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EEL 6266 Power System Operation and Control

Load-duration Curves
Building the load duration curve
multiply the probability by the period length to show the number of hours that load equals or exceeds a given power level, L common convention has the load on the vertical axis
1500

Load L (MW)

1000

Block-Loading
simulates the economic dispatch procedure with this type of load model generating units are ordered by cost

500

0 0 4 8 12

Hours load equals or exceed L MW

units are assumed to be fully loaded or loaded up to the limitation of the load-duration curve
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EEL 6266 Power System Operation and Control

Load-duration Curves
Block-Loading
example of the Niagara-Mohawk system
Unit Incremental Maximum Cost ($/h) Capacity (MW)
gas turbines (280 MW out of 400 MW)
1500

2-Mile Point Mohawk #1 Mohawk #2 Rio Bravo #1 Rio Bravo #2 Rio Bravo #3 (8) gas turbines

8.1 8.5 8.7 9.2 9.6 9.7 9.9

800 300 200 75 25 20 400

Rio Bravo #1, #2, & #3 (120 MW) Mohawk #2 (200 MW) (300 MW)

Load L (MW)

1000

Mohawk #1

500

2-Mile Point (800 MW)

0

Hours load equals or exceed L MW

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EEL 6266 Power System Operation and Control

Load-duration Curves
Example
consider a two generating unit system that will serve the following expected load pattern: construct a load-duration curve in tabular and graphic form
x-Load (MW) T Pn(k), Hours Exact that Load Equals Duration (h) or Exceeds x x-Load (MW) Duration (h) Energy (MWh)

100 80 40 Totals:
T Pn(x), Hours that load equals or exceeds x

20 60 20 100

2000 4800 800 7600

100

0 20 40 60 80 100 100+

0 0 20 0 60 20 0

100 100 100 80 80 20 0

50

20

40 60 x-Load (MW)

80

100

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EEL 6266 Power System Operation and Control

Load-duration Curves
Example
the two generating units have the following characteristics
Unit Power Output (MW) Fuel Input (MBtu/h) Fuel Cost ($/MBtu) Fuel Cost Rate ($/h) Incremental Fuel Cost ($/MWh) Unit Force Outage Rate (per unit)

1 2

0 80 0 40

160 800 80 400

1.0 1.0 2.0 2.0

160 800 160 800

8.0 16.0

0.05 0.10

the fuel cost rate for each unit is a linear function of the power output

block-load the two units onto the load-duration curve

unit #1 is used first because of its lower average cost per MWh

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EEL 6266 Power System Operation and Control

Load-duration Curves
Example
block-loaded
unit #1 is on-line for 100 h
80 MW output for 80 h 40 MW output for 20 h
T Pn(x), Hours that load equals or exceeds x

100

50

Unit 1
Unit 2

unit #2 is on-line for 20 h

20 MW output for 20 h

summary of results
Unit Load (MW) Duration (h) Energy (MWh)

20

40 60 x-Load (MW)

80

100

Fuel Used (MBtu)

Fuel Cost ($)

1 2

40 80 20

20 80 Subtotal: 20 Total:

800 6400 7200 400 7600

9600 64000 73600 4800 78400

9600 64000 73600 9600 83200

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EEL 6266 Power System Operation and Control

Forced Outages
Forced outage of a generator unit
the time that the unit is not available due to a failure of some sort
represents a random event taken out of the total time that the unit should be available for service

the forced outage rate is the ratio of forced outage time over the total time available
schedule outage times for maintenance are excluded in both the total time available and the forced outage time

Forced outage rates for all generating units must be accounted for in the expected production costs

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Forced Outages
Example
reconsider the previous example, but now including the effects of forced outages evaluate by load levels
Load = 40 MW; duration 20 h
on-line for 20 h, operates for 0.95 20 = 19 h output: 40 MW, energy delivered: 19 40 = 760 MWh Unit 2: on-line for 1 h, operates for 0.90 1 = 0.9 h output: 40 MW, energy delivered: 0.9 40 = 36 MWh load energy = 800 MWh generation = 796 MWh unserved energy = 4 MWh shortage = 40 MW for 0.1 h Unit 1:

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Forced Outages
Example
Load = 80 MW; duration 60 h
on-line for 60 h, operates for 0.95 60 = 57 h output: 80 MW, energy delivered: 57 80 = 4560 MWh Unit 2: on-line for 3 h, operates for 0.90 3 = 2.7 h output: 40 MW, energy delivered: 2.7 40 = 108 MWh load energy = 4800 MWh generation = 4668 MWh unserved energy = 132 MWh shortage = 80 MW for 0.3 h (24 MWh) and 40 MW for 2.7 h (108 MWh) Unit 1:

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Forced Outages
Example
Load = 100 MW; duration 20 h
Unit 1: Unit 2: on-line for 20 h, operates for 0.95 20 = 19 h output: 80 MW, energy delivered: 19 80 = 1520 MWh on-line for 20 h, operates as follows

Unit 1 is on-line and operating for 19 h Unit 2: on-line for 0.90 19 = 17.1 h output: 20 MW, energy delivered: 17.1 20 = 342 MWh shortage: 20 MW for 1.9 h Unit 1 is supposedly on-line, but not operating 1 h Unit 2: on-line for 0.90 1 = 0.9 h output: 40 MW, energy delivered: 0.9 40 = 36 MWh shortage: 100 MW for 0.1 h and 60 MW for 0.9 h

load energy = 2000 MWh; generation = 1898 MWh unserved energy = 102 MWh
100 MW for 0.1 h = 10 MWh; 60 MW for 0.9 h = 54 MWh; 20 MW for 1.9 h = 38 MWh
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Forced Outages
Comments
it was necessary to make an arbitrary assumption that the second unit will be on-line for any load level that equals or exceeds the capacity of the first unit the enumeration of the possible states is not complete
need to separate the periods when there is excess capability, exact matching of generation and load, and shortages when there is an exact matching of generation and load, it is referred to as a zero-MW shortage there are two such periods in the example
40 MW loading, 20 h duration, unit 2 on: 0.05 0.9 20 = 0.9 h 80 MW loading, 60 h duration, unit 1 on: 0.95 0.1 60 = 5.7 h total zero-reserve expected duration: 6.6 h
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Forced Outages
Summary of all possible states
Load Duration Event (MW) (h) No. Unit 1 Unit 2 Combined Event Consequence Load satisfied Load satisfied 0 MW shortage 40 MW shortage Load satisfied 0 MW shortage 40 MW shortage 80 MW shortage Load satisfied 20 MW shortage 60 MW shortage 100 MW shortage
16

Status Power (MW) Status Power (MW) Duration (h)

40

20

80

60

100

20

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0

40 40 0 0 80 80 0 0 80 80 0 0

1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0

0 0 40 0 0 0 40 0 20 0 40 0

17.1 1.9 0.9 0.1 51.3 5.7 2.7 0.3 17.1 1.9 0.9 0.1

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Forced Outages
Summary of generation cost results
Unit 1 2 Scheduled Time On-line (h) 100 81 Expected Operating Time (h) 95.0 72.9 Total: Expected Generated Energy (MWh) 6840 522 7362 Expected Fuel Used (MBtu) 69920 10008 79928 Expected Production Cost ($) 69920 20016 89936

unserved load
Unserved Duration of Unserved Duration of Given Demand (MW) Shortage (h) Energy (MWh) Shortage or More (h)
0 20 40 60 80 100 Total: 6.6 1.9 2.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 12.6 0 38 112 54 24 10 238 12.6 6.0 4.1 1.3 0.4 0.1

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