Iootool of lolltlcol lopolty aL new ?

ork unlverslLy, Sprlng lssue (2013)

1
!"# %&!!'# ()* !"# +#,#++-)./ ,01023450 6789:9 +;054
<304 %08=72>?+3278
!" !$%&'()*%+'$, -+.%'&+*/0 1/*23&')$( /$( 4'$%567'&/&8 9/*%.
Spaln's LranslLlon Lo democracy wlLh Lhe consLlLuLlon of 1978 was expecLed Lo offer
Lhe pollLlcal basls for soclal and naLlonal peace. AfLer forLy years of lranco's dlcLaLorshlp,
Lhe decenLrallzaLlon of power Lo Lhe hlsLorlc naLlonal communlLles was seen as Lhe end of
Lhe naLlonal rlvalrles beLween Callcla, 8asque CounLry, and CaLalonla versus Spaln, and Lhe
sLarL of an era of reglonal sLablllLy. 1he rapld lnsLauraLlon of reglons durlng Lhe elghLles
homogenlzed Lhe pollLlcal power of Lhe hlsLorlc naLlonallLles wlLh Lhe resL of newly creaLed
reglons, excepLlng for Lhe dlfferenLlaLed flscal LreaLmenL of 8asque CounLry and navarra.
unllke whaL would be expecLed by some (norrls 2008, Wolff and ?aklnLhou 2012), ln reglons
such as CaLalonla, Lhe power-sharlng process dld noL LermlnaLe asplraLlons for lncreaslng
self-governmenL powers (MarLlnez-Perrera 2002, 421-433), as evldenced by lncreaslng
secesslonlsL clalms (llqote 1). AlLhough secesslonlsL clalms ln CaLalonla are noL new, Lhey
are aL Lhelr hlghesL peak and consLlLuLe a large proporLlon of Lhe populaLlon. 1he
conLemporary scenarlo ls characLerlzed noL only by lncreaslng polarlzaLlon beLween CaLalan
and Spanlsh leaders, buL also by growlng soclal pressure from Lhls pro-secesslonlsL ma[orlLy
for Lhe celebraLlon of a referendum for self-deLermlnaLlon.
unLll recenLly, CaLalan naLlonallsm had never been characLerlzed by secesslonlsL
clalms, ln facL, very few CaLalans wanLed full lndependence. 1he maln CaLalan naLlonallsL
coallLlon, coovetqoclo l uol (Clu), whlch governed CaLalonla for Lhe flrsL LwenLy-Lhree
years of democracy (1980 - 2003), supporLed Lhe lottlJo 5oclollsto Obtet spool (SCL)
(1993 - 1993) and Lhe lottlJo lopolot () (1996 - 2000) when Lhey were mlnorlLy
governmenLs ln Madrld. ln dolng so, Clu guaranLeed Lhe sLablllLy of Spaln. AlLhough Clu has
Iootool of lolltlcol lopolty aL new ?ork unlverslLy, Sprlng lssue (2013)


2
always deflned CaLalonla as a naLlon, lL had noL hlsLorlcally quesLloned Spaln's unlLy
(Culbernau 2000, 33-68). Powever, all Lhls has changed ln recenL years due Lo an
lncreaslngly percelved lack of recognlLlon Lo Lhe parLlcularlLles of CaLalonla (unlque
language, hlsLory, and LradlLlons) on Lhe parL of Spaln and Lhe severe economlc crlsls LhaL
hlLs Lhe counLry slnce 2008. AddlLlonally, many CaLalans belleve Lhelr reglon Lransfers an
unfalr and dlsproporLlonaLe amounL of money Lo Lhe cenLral governmenL and Spaln's
pooresL reglons. ln Lhls conLexL, Clu regalned conLrol of Lhe CaLalan governmenL afLer seven
years ln Lhe opposlLlon (2003 - 2010) wlLh a clear lnLenL Lo relleve Lhe amounL of neL flscal
Lransfers
1
from CaLalonla Lo Lhe resL of Spaln. Powever, falled agreemenL beLween Lhe
leaders of CaLalonla and Spaln has engendered an escalaLlon of Lenslon LhaL may puL Lhe
sLruggle for CaLalan lndependence ln Lhe spoLllghL of Luropean pollLlcal affalrs ln Lhe years
Lo come.
(5@:87 A/ B317 541741534 54 0 97=799534591 87C7874D:E F;78=741 D5CC7874=7 G71H774 I#+ 04D .)J



1
1he annual neL Lransfer (flscal deflclL") ls calculaLed Lo have moved beLween 6.7 percenL Lo 10 percenL of Lhe
CaLalan Cu ln Lhe lasL LwenLy years wlLh an lncreaslng Lrend ln Lhe lasL decade as shown ln ArLadl (2012, 38-71).
ln 2012, lL has been of 8.3 percenL of Lhe Cu, accordlng Lo luenLe (2012).
Iootool of lolltlcol lopolty aL new ?ork unlverslLy, Sprlng lssue (2013)


3
ln llghL of Lhe conLemporary pollLlcal landscape, lL ls clear LhaL Lhe secesslonlsL
asplraLlons of CaLalonla wlll lnvarlably clash wlLh Lhe Spanlsh governmenL's long-Lerm pollcy
of denlal. Powever, maklng sense of Lhe raLlonal sLraLegles on Lhe parL of boLh parLles by
means of game LheoreLlcal Lools may shed some llghL on new paLhs of dlalogues and
undersLandlng LhaL cannoL be seen by Lhe naked eye. 1hls essay proceeds as follows. llrsLly,
l show Lhe sequence of Lhe games sLarLlng from Lhe meeLlng beLween ArLur Mas, leader of
Clu and prlme mlnlsLer of CaLalonla, and Marlano 8a[oy, leader of and prlme mlnlsLer of
Spaln, ln SepLember of 2012 and Lhe elecLlons Lo Lhe arllamenL of CaLalonla of november
2012. nexL, l Lravel Lo Lhe fuLure and predlcL Lhe naLure of Lhe legal and consLlLuLlonal
dlspuLe beLween CaLalonla and Spaln, Lhe referendum, and a prospecLlve posL-referendum
scenarlo. llnally, l provlde some concluslons and dlscuss Lhe lmpllcaLlons of my flndlngs.
!!" :;5 <5=)5$*5 '> ?/65., @&5(+*%+$3 %;5 @&'*5..
1he flrsL key polnL was Lhe meeLlng beLween ArLur Mas, leader of Clu and prlme
mlnlsLer of CaLalonla, and Marlano 8a[oy, leader of and prlme mlnlsLer of Spaln, on
SepLember 20, 2012, whlch occurred only nlneLeen days afLer a mass demonsLraLlon ln
8arcelona under Lhe slogan: CaLalonla, new SLaLe of Lurope." 1he alm of Lhe meeLlng was
Lo dlscuss Lhe economlc slLuaLlon of CaLalonla and Mas presenLed a proposal of asymmeLrlc
flscal agreemenL. 1he worsL opLlon for Mas had been noL Lo Lry Lo reach Lhe agreemenL,
because lL would have been agalnsL hls elecLoral promlse and agalnsL Lhe demands of Lhe
demonsLraLlon, whlch he had supporLed days earller. AL Lhe meeLlng, 8a[oy could elLher
accepL or re[ecL Lhe proposal. AlLhough 8a[oy wlshed he had never recelved Lhe proposal ln
Lhe flrsL place - lL ls less cosLly noL havlng Lo re[ecL a proposal Lhan acLually havlng Lo re[ecL
Iootool of lolltlcol lopolty aL new ?ork unlverslLy, Sprlng lssue (2013)


4
Mas 1
lL - chose Lo re[ecL lL as accepLance would have lmposed unaccepLable consLralnLs over
Spaln's flnanclal slLuaLlon
2
.
Clven 8a[oy's re[ecLlon, Mas could elLher be (a) reacLlve, Lrlggerlng some pollLlcal
acLlon Lo sLep up Lhe process, or (b) submlsslve, accepLlng Lhe re[ecLlon wlLhouL reslsLance.
ln Lhls case, Mas clearly preferred Lo reacL agalnsL Lhe declslon ln order Lo lncrease pressure
on Spanlsh leaders raLher Lhan submlL Lo 8a[oy's declslon and dlsplay weakness. ln a
nuLshell, Lhe subgame perfecL nash equlllbrlum ls proposal-re[ecLlon-reacLlon (see llqote 2).
1o Lhe surprlse of many observers, Lhls was whaL Lransplred, wlLh Mas announclng boLh Lhe
celebraLlon of elecLlons ln CaLalonla and Lhe celebraLlon of a referendum ln Lhe nexL
leglslaLlve perlod for CaLalan lndependence.
(5@:87 K/ #L1749567 M0E7N O77154@ *0P3Q R O09 34 +7;17EG78 KSN KSAK















2
CaLalonla ls a rlch reglon ln Spaln and, Lherefore, a neL conLrlbuLor Lo Lhe naLlonal balances. 1hus, lf a
dlfferenL flscal LreaLmenL was accepLed, Lhe resL of Spaln would lose a greaL source of money. See above
reference, (ArLadl 2012, 38-71, luenLe 2012) for more lnformaLlon ln Lhls respecL.
8a[oy

Mas

roposal no roposal
AccepLs 8e[ecLs
8eacLlve
Submlsslve

Mas
8a[oy
Mas
4
4


8a[oy
1
8a[oy
Mas
3
2 3
2
Iootool of lolltlcol lopolty aL new ?ork unlverslLy, Sprlng lssue (2013)


3
8eferendum

Clve up
*0P3Q
no AuLhorlzaLlon
AuLhorlzaLlon
O09

ConsulLaLlon
Clve up
*0P3Q

ConsLlLuLlonal
Appeal
neuLrallLy
1he november 23, 2012 elecLlons gave an absoluLe ma[orlLy Lo Lhe secesslonlsL bloc,
whlch Lrlggered Lhe process for a secesslonlsL referendum. 8ased on Lhe resulLs of
lnformaLlon gaLherlng abouL Lhe effecLs of a referendum, Lhe referendum mlghL be
aLLempLed. llqote J shows Lhe sequence of moves whereln Mas has clear pollLlcal power Lo
push Lhe process forward desplLe 8a[oy's poLenLlal reslsLance, wlLh Lhe former's payoffs ln
blue and Lhe laLLer's payoffs ln red. llrsL, Mas can Lry Lo puL forLh a secesslonlsL referendum
vla arLlcle 122 of Lhe cotoloo 5totote of Aotooomy, CaLalonla's consLlLuLlon. Powever, such a
move requlres 8a[oy's auLhorlzaLlon. lor hls parL, 8a[oy musL declde wheLher or noL Lo
accepL Lhe celebraLlon of Lhe referendum. lf 8a[oy does noL auLhorlze Lhe referendum, Lhen
Mas musL elLher (a) call for a publlc consulLaLlon" - a [urldlcal arLlfacL slmllar Lo Lhe
referendum buL one LhaL does noL requlre Spaln's auLhorlzaLlon - or (b) glve up. Powever, a
publlc consulLaLlon bears less [urldlcal value, as only Lhe munlclpal census can be used, noL
Lhe offlclal elecLoral census. lf Mas chooses publlc consulLaLlon, 8a[oy musL declde wheLher
Lo appeal lLs consLlLuLlonallLy. lf 8a[oy chooses Lo make a consLlLuLlonal appeal, Lhe
ouLcome becomes less cerLaln.
(5@:87 T/ !U7 P:D5=502 34@354@ @0E7 G71H774 O09 04D *0P3Q



1hus, Lhe flnal game arrlves when Mas decldes wheLher or noL Lo proceed wlLh Lhe publlc
consulLaLlon afLer lL has been appealed Lo Lhe ConsLlLuLlonal CourL. 1he CaLalan prlme
mlnlsLer could elLher (a) call for pleblsclLary elecLlons, wlLh all Lhe parLles for Lhe
lndependence under Lhe same elecLoral llsL and Lhe resL on Lhe oLher slde, or (b) lssue a
unllaLeral declslon from Lhe arllamenL. AlLernaLlvely, lf Mas glves up and forgoes a publlc
O09

1
P
L

l
l
n
A
L

C
A
M
L

s
e
e

l
l
g
u
r
e

4

V, A
A, V W, K
K, W
3, 3
Iootool of lolltlcol lopolty aL new ?ork unlverslLy, Sprlng lssue (2013)


6
consulLaLlon, he abandons Lhe process and may Lry Lo negoLlaLe a beLLer accommodaLlon
wlLhln Spaln. We mlghL flnd elLher a weak or a sLrong 8a[oy. Whlle Lhe former lndlcaLes
8a[oy's neuLrallLy ln fronL of Lhe CaLalan process, Lhe laLLer would be aLLended by 8a[oy's
lnLervenLlon ln Lhe process by uslng Lwo posslble Lools aL hand: (a) pollLlcal lnLervenLlon
Lhrough Lhe suspenslon of CaLalan auLonomy (arL. 133 Spaln's ConsLlLuLlon) Lo sLop Lhe
consulLaLlon, or (b) mlllLary lnLervenLlon Lhrough Lhe use of Lhe force.
1he game can be analyzed as sequenLlal or slmulLaneous. ln boLh cases, l assume
LhaL Mas decldes hls poslLlons based on Lhe llkellhood LhaL a sLrong 8a[oy would mean a
mlllLary or pollLlcal lnLervenLlon of CaLalonla. WlLh respecL Lo Lhe pollLlcal lnLervenLlon
branch, Lhe besL ouLcome for Mas would be Lo go ahead wlLh Lhe process, wlLh Lhe passlvlLy
of 8a[oy, and Lhe second besL when he goes ahead even wlLh Lhe suspenslon of auLonomy.
Mas could speed up Lhe process by call pleblsclLary elecLlons or declarlng Lhe unllaLeral
secesslon from Lhe arllamenL before Lhe suspenslon can be lmplemenLed. ln Lhls scenarlo,
Lhe referendum could be held wlLhouL requlrlng Spaln's legal approval. 1he second worsL
ouLcome for Mas would be Lo glve up Lhe process afLer Spaln's pollLlcal lnLervenLlon. Mas
could excuse hlmself from abandonlng Lhe baLLle ln fronL of Lhe CaLalan elecLoraLe as a
consequence of lnLervenLlon. llnally, Lhe worsL scenarlo would be lf Mas abandons Lhe
pro[ecL whlle Spaln remalns weak as Lhe CaLalan prlme mlnlsLer cannoL excuse hlmself for
Lhls declslon.
As for Lhe mlllLary lnLervenLlon branch, Mas would lnvarlably prefer anyLhlng else Lo
Spaln's mlllLary occupaLlon of CaLalan LerrlLory, glven LhaL he ls a rlsk-averse pollLlclan. lf Lhe
process resulLed ln Spanlsh mlllLary lnLervenLlon, Lhe CaLalan elecLoraLe would osLraclze
Mas for havlng led Lhe counLry Lo a mlllLary confllcL, as such, Lhls scenarlo consLlLuLes Lhe
worsL posslble ouLcome for hlm. Pls besL opLlon ls sLlll Lo go ahead when 8a[oy ls weak, yeL
Iootool of lolltlcol lopolty aL new ?ork unlverslLy, Sprlng lssue (2013)


7
hls second besL ouLcome ls Lo glve up when he percelves Lhe mlllLary LhreaL. Lven Lhough he
has llLLle excuse ln fronL of Lhe CaLalan socleLy, hls second worsL ouLcome ls Lo glve up when
8a[oy ls weak, buL he prefers Lo do so raLher Lhan Lo go ahead wlLh a mlllLary lnLervenLlon.
ln Lerms of 8a[oy's preferences, we have Lwo scenarlos. ln Lerms of pollLlcal
lnLervenLlon, 8a[oy's ldeal scenarlo would be when he only needs Lo pollLlcally LhreaLen
CaLalonla Lo force Mas Lo glve up Lhe process. 1hls can be easlly sold as a pollLlcal Lrlumph
for 8a[oy, wlLh clear elecLoral beneflLs. 8y conLrasL, 8a[oy does noL caplLallze Lhe vlcLory lf
he remalns neuLral and Mas abandons Lhe process, so alLhough Lhls ls also a good scenarlo
for 8a[oy, lL ls second besL. 1he worsL posslble ouLcome for 8a[oy would be when he
remalns passlve whlle Mas aLLempLs Lo desLroy Spaln's lnLegrlLy. 1he second worsL case ls
when Mas holds Lhe referendum Lo break away from Spaln, and 8a[oy aL leasL has done as
much as he could Lo avold lL by lnLervenlng pollLlcally.
When mlllLary lnLervenLlon ls on Lhe Lable, 8a[oy's ranklng preferences wlll change.
Pe wlll prefer Lo avold maklng mlllLary LhreaLs CaLalonla Lo dlssuade Mas. Powever, 8a[oy
would raLher mlllLarlly lnLervene Lhan Mas golng ahead, and lf Mas goes ahead wlLh Lhe
referendum, Lhen 8a[oy prefers Lo sLand flrm and send Lhe army Lo sLop whaL would be
seen as an lnLernal coup d'eLaL. llnally, Lhe worsL opLlon for 8a[oy ls Lo do noLhlng ln fronL
of Spaln's dlssoluLlon.
ln an lnLernaLlonal conLexL where democraLlc counLrles do noL solve Lhelr lnLernal
confllcLs Lhrough war buL pollLlcal negoLlaLlon, and wlLhln a Luropean unlon hlghly rlsk-
averse Lo mlllLary advenLurlsm - parLlcularly, wlLhln lLs LerrlLory - 8a[oy would have
dlfflculLy generaLlng a credlble mlllLary LhreaL. lor Lhls Lo consLlLuLe a workable acLlon, 8a[oy
musL consLrucL a credlble mlllLary LhreaL (percelved !!!"! ! !!! ) LhaL would deLer Mas.
1herefore, we can safely assume LhaL Lhe percelved llkellhood beLween pollLlcal and mlllLary
Iootool of lolltlcol lopolty aL new ?ork unlverslLy, Sprlng lssue (2013)


8
p 1-p
Mas Mas
8a[oy 8a[oy
Clves up Clves up Coes ahead Coes ahead
Weak
SLrong Weak SLrong Weak SLrong
Weak SLrong
mlllLary lnLervenLlon before Lhe game should be ! !" ! !!! ! ! !" . 1hus, Mas' domlnanL
sLraLegy ls Lo be sLrong and, wlLh a probablllLy hlgher Lhan 0.3, lL wlll resulL ln Lhe rlghL-hand
subgame where 8a[oy ls also sLrong and aLLempLs unsuccessfully Lo lnLervene pollLlcally as
Mas goes ahead wlLh Lhe elecLoral call.
(5@:87 W/ !U7 (5402 M0E7 C38 1U7 87C7874D:EN O09 6789:9 *0P3Q















1he dlsLrlbuLlon of preferences descrlbed above ylelds Lhe followlng expecLed payoffs for Mas:
! Weak sLraLegy: !! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
! SLrong sLraLegy: ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!

As a resulL of Lhls, Mas sLraLegy wlll be Lhe followlng:
! !" ! !!! ! !!!"!, Lhen Mas domlnanL sLraLegy ls Lo be weak.
lf ! !" ! ! !" ! !!!, Lhen Mas ls lndlfferenL beLween belng weak or sLrong.
! !" ! !!! ! !!!"!, Lhen Mas domlnanL sLraLegy ls Lo be sLrong.

Lven Lhough recenL polls lndlcaLe a poLenLlal close race beLween Lhe Lwo opLlons, Lhe resulL
of Lhe popular consulLaLlon ls far from predlcLable. lf Lhe resulL ls negaLlve, Lhe sLaLus quo
prevalls, buL lf lL ls poslLlve - ln favor of Lhe lndependence - a new process of negoLlaLlons
SLrong 8a[oy means
mlllLary lnLervenLlon
(8m)

Weak 8a[oy means
pollLlcal lnLervenLlon
(8p)

naLure

8a[oy 8a[oy



8a[oy
Mas
4
2
3
3
1
4
2
1
3
1
4
2
1
4
2
3


Iootool of lolltlcol lopolty aL new ?ork unlverslLy, Sprlng lssue (2013)


9
musL sLarL. 1hus, Lhe declslon hlnges on wheLher or noL Mas chooses Lo secede, and lf 8a[oy
chooses Lo make Lhe separaLlon frlendly or confllcLlve. Lach poslLlon has lLs advanLages and
drawbacks LhaL are summarlzed ln 1oble 1.
!0G27 A/ X839 04D ,349 3C 1U7 -4D7;74D74=7 .7@315015349

O09

Secesslon no Secesslon
*0P3Q
lrlendly " lnLernaLlonal recognlLlon
" ulrecL enLry lnLo Lhe Lu, Lhe Luropean Slngle MarkeL
" CaLalonla assumes approxlmaLely a 20 percenL of Lhe
Spaln's naLlonal debL (proporLlonal Lo Lhe welghL of
CaLalonla wlLhln Lhe naLlonal Cu).
" CaLalonla sLops Lhe neL Lransfer senL Lo Spaln every year
(=8.3 percenL Cu/year)
" CaLalonla recelves =20 percenL of Spaln's asseLs
" SLaLus quo.

ConfllcLlve " lnLernaLlonal recognlLlon noL guaranLeed
" oLenLlal denlal of enLry lnLo Lhe Lu, Luropean Slngle
MarkeL
" Spanlsh boycoLL of CaLalan producLs aL prlvaLe level
(decrease Spaln's demand) and publlc level (Larlffs)
" CaLalan Larlffs leave Spaln effecLlvely locked-ln ln Lhe
penlnsula wlLh no connecLlon Lo Lurope
" CaLalonla sLops Lhe neL Lransfer senL Lo Spaln every year
(=8.3 percenL Cu/year)
" Spaln assumes Lhe LoLallLy of lLs naLlonal debL (CaLalonla
would declde noL Lo share lL), and Spaln has Lo confronL
Lhe same amounL of debL even Lhough lL has losL abouL
20 percenL of Lhe naLlonal Cu.
" SLaLus quo
wlLh more
lnLernal
confllcL.

8ased on Lhe lnformaLlon provlded ln 1oble 1, 1oble 2 deplcLs Lhe payoff maLrlx, Laklng lnLo
accounL a pure raLlonal cholce perspecLlve. Mas would prefer a frlendly process Lo a
confllcLlve one, buL a no-secesslon Lo a confllcLlve secesslon. 8a[oy, by conLrasL, would
prefer a frlendly lndependence Lo a confllcLlve one, buL always a no-secesslon Lo any sorL of
secesslon, as Lhe fraglle Spanlsh economy favors sLablllLy over dlsorder. 1he nash-
equlllbrlum ls locaLed ln Lhe frlendly secesslon.


Iootool of lolltlcol lopolty aL new ?ork unlverslLy, Sprlng lssue (2013)


10
!0G27 K/ O0185L 3C 1U7 .7@315015349 C38 1U7 -4D7;74D74=7
O09
Secesslon no Secesslon
*0P3Q
lrlendly 2*, 4* 4*, 1
ConfllcLlve 1, 2 3, 3*

!!!" 4'$*0).+'$. /$( 9+$/0 @&5(+*%+'$
1he baLLle for CaLalan secesslon ln Spaln ls a Loplc LhaL ls llkely Lo aLLracL much
aLLenLlon ln Lhe comlng years. 8eyond slmple reconsLrucLlon or lnLerpreLaLlon of parLlcular
evenLs, Lhls analysls empowers game Lheory for emplrlcal purposes Lo generaLe new
LesLable and falslflable predlcLlons abouL Lhe world. lf Lhe sLraLegles, sLraLeglc raLlonallLy,
and payoffs assumed LhroughouL Lhls essay are correcL, Lhen my flndlngs should accuraLely
predlcL Lhe ouLcome.
llrsLly, Mas sends Lhe proposal for Lhe flscal agreemenL, whlch 8a[oy subsequenLly
re[ecLs. ln response, Mas prompLs Lhe celebraLlon of elecLlons ln laLe november. nexL, Mas
would push Lhe process forward from Lhe referendum Lo Lhe consulLaLlon, movlng Loward
whaL has been called Lhe flnal game, whereln 8a[oy would noL concede. ln Lhe flnal game,
assumlng lower Lhan flfLy percenL llkellhood of 8a[oy uslng mlllLary lnLervenLlon, 8a[oy
would use pollLlcal lnLervenLlon Lo sLop Lhe process, even Lhough Mas would go ahead
anyway. 1he analysls ln Lhls paper lndlcaLes LhaL Lhe unlque opLlon for 8a[oy Lo convlnce
Mas Lo abandon Lhe pro[ecL ls by pro[ecLlng a credlble LhreaL of mlllLary force LhroughouL
Lhe process, wlLh a percelved llkellhood of over flfLy percenL.
llnally, ln fronL of a poslLlve resulL of Lhe consulLaLlon call, Lhe mosL plauslble
scenarlo would be a frlendly secesslon, as lL ls ln Lhe self-lnLeresLs of boLh players, glven Lhe
consequences of each sLraLegy. 1hls would evenLually lead Lo Lhe creaLlon of a new sLaLe ln
Lhe lnLernaLlonal communlLy: CaLalonla.
Iootool of lolltlcol lopolty aL new ?ork unlverslLy, Sprlng lssue (2013)


11
%5G253@80;UQ
ArLadl, Llsa. 2012. "8alana llscal ue CaLalunya Amb L'AdmlnlsLracl CenLral: un ueflclL
LlevaL, erslsLenL l Sense ComparaLlva lnLernaclonal." Actlvltot lotlomeottlo. (23): 38-
71.
luenLe, ngel de la. 2012. "Clsne negro C ollo uel MonLn? Ll ueflclL llscal CaLaln Ln
erspecLlva." stoJlo/wotkloq lopet, lostltoto ue Aollsls coomlco (c5lc).
Culbernau, MonLserraL. 2000. "Spaln: CaLalonla and Lhe 8asque CounLry." lotllomeototy
Affolts. 33 (1): 33-68.
MarLlnez-Perrera, Lnrlc. 2002. "lrom naLlon-8ulldlng Lo 8ulldlng ldenLlflcaLlon wlLh ollLlcal
CommunlLles: Consequences of ollLlcal uecenLrallsaLlon ln Spaln, Lhe 8asque CounLry,
CaLalonla and Callcla, 1978-2001." otopeoo Iootool of lolltlcol keseotcb. 41 (4): 421-
433.
norrls, lppa. 2008. utlvloq uemoctocy. uo lowet-5botloq lostltotloos wotk? Cambrldge
unlverslLy ress Cambrldge.
Wolff, SLefan and ChrlsLalla ?aklnLhou. 2012. coofllct Moooqemeot lo ulvlJeJ 5ocletles.
1beotles ooJ ltoctlce 8ouLledge.