Retail Management Project

A
Project Report
On
FORECASTING AND REORDERING MODEL FOR
SOURCED PRODUCTS FOR COATED ABRASIVES
BUSINESS
By
Gaurav Jain 07FT-044
Gaurav Singh 07FT-045
Hemant Shinde 07FT-050
Manas Mukul Jaiswal 07FT-056
Manu Bansal 07FT-058
Institute of Management Technology

Ghaziabad
August 25, 2008
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Grindwell Norton is quite concerned about improving inventory management of items it
sources from outside India. The business of these items is frequently marred by stock-outs
caused due to absence of scientific sales forecasting and large lead times.
In the project, initially a suitable sales forecasting method was selected by determining the
general sales pattern of sourced items, and matching these characteristics with those of
different forecasting methods. Winters Exponential Smoothing Method was thus chosen.
Thereafter, a generic Excel program was developed which employed the technique of
Winters Method to project future sales using sales data of past 5 years.
Sales forecasts for high value sourced items (which were identified based on parameters of
annual sales and sales growth rate) were then obtained using the program.
The program developed for forecasting sales was further developed to incorporate
capabilities of calculating reorder point and order quantities. The exercise required collection
of data from various parts of the organisation including stores, finance, accounts, marketing
and customer services departments. The model was developed deviating a little from the
normal recommended formulae to further improve its performance. This was possible using
the forecasts generated by the initial part of the program. Also, in addition to calculating the
ROP and order quantity, the model is able to compare the relative costs of different modes
of transport (like air & sea) based on their lead times (and standard deviations in lead times)
to recommend the most economical mode of transport. The service level used for the entire
activity was decided to be 95%. The main advantage of this program is that it was integrated
with the sales forecasting module, which makes it user friendly. One is required to feed in
data only at one point, and all the required figures are generated automatically.
Further, a modified form of the ROP & Order Quantity Program was developed for
calculating the required figures for items with no sales history. Typically, these are those
items which are yet to be introduced into the market.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PAGE
Executive Summary
Table of Contents
List of Tables
List of Figures
List of Abbreviations
List of Appendices
i
ii
iv
v
vi
vii
1 SAINT GOBAIN
1
1
2
2
3
3
3
3
4
4
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.4.1
1.4.2
1.4.3
1.4.4
1.4.5
Conception & History

Strategy
2008 Outlook & Targets
Business Units
Building Distribution
Construction Products
Flat Glass
High Performance Materials
Packaging
2 SAINT GOBAIN INDIA

2.1
2.1.1
2.1.2
2.2
2.2.1
2.2.2
2.2.3
2.3
2.3.1
2.3.2
2.3.3
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
7
Flat Glass
SGGI
SGSI
GNO
SGCD
SEPR
SGWI
SGSEIL
India Gypsum
3 GRINDWELL NORTON LIMITED

3.1
3.1.1
3.1.2
3.1.3
3.1.4
Products & Services

Abrasives
Ceramics
Performance Plastics
Project Engineering Group
4 THE PROJECT
4.1
Project
4.2
Project Introduction
4.3
Project Objectives
4.4
Project Progress
4.4.1 Development of Sales Forecasting Model
4.4.1.1 Selecting a Forecasting Method
4.4.1.2 Winters Method
4.4.1.3 Model Development
4.4.2 Projecting Future Sales
ii
8
8
8
8
9
9
11
11
11
11
11
11
12
14
14
23
4.4.3 Recommending Reorder Point & Order Quantity

4.4.3.1 Reorder Point
4.4.3.2 Order Quantity
4.4.3.2.1 Ordering Cost
4.4.3.2.2 Holding Cost
4.4.3.3 Calculation of ROP and Order Quantity
23
23
24
25
25
26
5 INPUTS & SOURCES OF INFORMATION
27
27
27
27
27
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
Sales Figures
Lead Times
Holding Cost
Ordering Cost
6 CONCLUSION
29
7 REFERENCES
30
8 APPENDICES
A
A1-1
A2-1
A3-1
8.1
8.2
8.3
Appendix 1
Appendix 2
Appendix 3
iii
LIST OF TABLES
TABLE NO.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
DESCRIPTION
Characteristics of various Forecasting Methods

Forecasting Model for ANS57
Forecasting Model for ANS60
Forecasting Model for AOP23
iv
PAGE
12
15
15
16
16
17
17
18
18
19
19
20
20
21
21
22
22
23
LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE NO.
1
2
DESCRIPTION
Breakdown of Saint-Gobain Sales as per sectors

Sales pattern of an SKU
PAGE
5
13
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
SG
SGGI
SGSI
GNO
SGCD
SEPR
SGWI
SGSEIL
PEG
HPR
SiC
BPS
SKU
CAGR
EOQ
ROP
SS
Saint Gobain
Saint Gobain Glass India Limited
Saint Gobain Sekurit India Limited
Grindwell Morton Limited
Saint Gobain Crystals & Detectors India Limited
SEPR Refractrories India Limited
Saint Gobain Weber India Limited
Saint Gobain SEVA Engineering India Limited
High Performance Refractories
Silicon Carbide
Building Products & Solutions
Stock Keeping Unit
Compounded Annual Growth Rate
Economic Order Quantity
Reorder Point
Safety Stock
vi
LIST OF APPENDICES
APPENDIX NO.
1
2
3
DESCRIPTION
Sales forecasting models with forecasts & calculations

Reorder Point and Order Quantity Model
Reorder Point and Order Quantity Model for items with
no sales history available
vii
PAGE
A1-1
A2-1
A3-1
SAINT GOBAIN
1.1
CONCEPTION & HISTORY

Saint-Gobain is a French multinational corporation, founded in 1665 in Paris
and headquartered on the outskirts of Paris at La Dfense. Originally a mirror
manufacturer, it now also produces a variety of construction and highperformance materials.
Saint-Gobain was created as part of the plan devised by Louis XIV and
Colbert to restore the French economy. Entrusted to private entrepreneurs,
the company broke with the factory tradition by organizing glass production on
an
industrial
basis.
Thanks to the invention of glassware casting (1688), Saint-Gobain established
a near-monopoly in 17th-century Europe and ousted Venice, which was then
the leader in this sector. With the first half of the 20th century, came the
diversification of glass applications (glass wool, glass fiber, hollow glass). In
1970, Saint-Gobain's merger with Pont--Mousson, the world leader in cast
iron piping, gave birth to a producer of materials and capital goods geared to
the global dimension of its markets. Since 1997, the group focuses on
business sectors in which it holds strong positions and the assets necessary
for growth. The acquisition of Poliet in 1996 completed its expertise in
distribution.
Saint-Gobain has also been established for many years in North and South
America. In 1831, it opened its first glass sales depot in New York. In 1920,
Saint-Gobain invested in several cast glass companies in order to build up its
industrial position in the United States. After developing the TEL glass wool
production process, Saint-Gobain signed its first agreements with CertainTeed
in 1967. Following the acquisition of Norton in 1990, Saint-Gobain acquired
Ball Foster Glass in 1995.
The Saint-Gobain Group will now have completed a decade of far-reaching
changes in both business sectors and structure. The Group has focused its
efforts on core business lines which are less cyclical or less exposed to the
economic fluctuations. It has strengthened its technology and marketing skills,
putting a greater emphasis on distributing to end customers. And it has also
stepped up its international expansion.
-1-
1.2
STRATEGY
The Group has in recent years implemented the strategy for steady and
profitable growth to:
v
v
v
v
develop genuine leadership in all if its businesses

enhance its technological and sales capacities
reduce its exposure to cyclical changes and market fluctuations
increase profitability and free cash flow.
The Group intends to focus its strategy on:

v prioritizing development of construction and housing related
businesses, in particular through bolt-on acquisitions in Building
Distribution and Construction Products sectors
v pushing ahead with R&D and innovation initiatives, particularly in HighPerformance Materials and Flat Glass sectors
v stepping up expansion efforts in emerging countries for all businesses.
1.3
2008 OUTLOOK & TARGETS

In 2008, the Group will have to contend with a more difficult and far more
uncertain macro-economic climate than in 2007, with a possible recession for
the US economy and growth in housing starts across Europe losing
momentum due chiefly to stricter lending criteria. However, Saint-Gobain is
well positioned to face these challenging business conditions:
v a strong position on the European building renovation market,
v global leadership on markets related to energy efficiency in
buildings, which account for almost 30% of Group sales,
v significant contributions from Asia and emerging countries to Group
operating income (around 20%, i.e. double the North American
contribution in 2007),
v the positive impact on the Groups results of further acquisitions,
v a solid financial structure and high levels of free cash flow.
In view of the above, for 2008 the Group is targeting:
modest growth in operating income at constant exchange rates

(average exchange rates for 2007) and recurring net income,
a solid financial structure and continuing high levels of free cash flow.
-2-
1.4
BUSINESS UNITS
The company is built around five business sectors: Building Distribution,
Construction Products, Flat Glass, Containers / Packaging and HighPerformance Materials.
1.4.1
Building Distribution
Since its creation in 1996, the Building Distribution Sector has experienced
rapid expansion through internal growth and acquisitions, first in France with
Point P. and Lapeyre; then in the UK with Jewson and Graham; followed by
Germany, the Netherlands and Eastern Europe with Raab Karcher; and finally
in the Nordic Countries with Dahl, the leading bathroom, kitchen and heating
products distributor and Optimera. With almost 4,000 stores in 24 countries,
the Building Distribution Sector is the leading building materials and kitchen,
bathroom, heating and plumbing supplies distributor in Europe, and the
leading ceramic tile distributor in the World.
A Few Facts
2006 Sales: 17.6 billion Euros

Global Workforce: 63,000
Subsidiaries
1.4.2
SGBD UK
Raab Karcher
Point P.
Lapeyre
Dahl
Norandex Distribution
The Construction Products business unit provides the following products:
acoustic and thermal insulation, faade coatings, roofing, interior and exterior
products and pipes.
A Few Facts
1.4.3

Workforce: 45,000
Flat Glass
Active in 39 countries, the Flat Glass business unit is targeting so-called
"emerging" countries for expansion, a market that now accounts for more than
one third of its sales. Products include self-cleaning, electrochromic, lowemissivity and sun-shielding glass.
-3-
Flat Glass is currently building a plant to produce photovoltaic cells jointly with
Shell, and is developing a pilot factory for the production of electronic glass in
Spain.
A Few Facts

Businesses
1.4.4
Production of flat glass

Manufacturing, transformation and distribution of glass for construction,
housing and interior decoration
Manufacturing, transformation and distribution of glass for the
automotive OEM and after-market and transportation industries
Specialty glass: household appliances, electronics, photovoltaic
applications

The High Performance Materials business unit has research centers in
Cavaillon (France), Northboro, MA (United States), and now Shanghai
(China). The fuel cell and the particle filter are two current projects of the
research centers. New sources of growth are appearing in areas like energy,
the environment, and medicine. Overall, the HPM sector's sales are usually
made up of at least 30% new products.
A Few Facts

Businesses
1.4.5
Ceramics
Grains and Powders
Crystals
Plastics
Abrasives
Textile Solutions
Composites
Packaging
With a workforce of 20,000 worldwide, the Packaging business unit focuses
on glass packaging for the food and beverage industry.
A Few Facts
-4-

Businesses
Glass bottles and jars
The breakdown of total sales for the group as per 2006 figures is depicted
below.
BREAKDOWN OF SALES PER SECTOR IN 2006
Figure 1: Breakdown of Saint Gobain Sales as per sectors
-5-
SAINT GOBAIN INDIA

Saint-Gobain established its presence in India by acquiring a majority stake in
Grindwell Norton in 1996, and thereafter went on to consolidate and
strengthen its presence within the country. The Group has adopted a
systematic focus in launching its individual businesses in India and currently
operates in three business sectors: Flat Glass, High Performance Materials
and Construction Products.
Within these sectors, a variety of products are manufactured by eight different
companies:
2.1
FLAT GLASS
2.1.1
Saint-Gobain Glass India Ltd. (SGGI)

SGGI manufactures and markets float glass and mirrors from its plant near
Chennai, and
2.1.2
Saint-Gobain Sekurit India Ltd. (SGSI)

SGSI offers a range of automotive glass products.
2.2
HIGH PERFORMANCE MATERIALS
2.2.1
Grindwell Norton Ltd. (GNO)

GNO manufactures and markets abrasives, silicon carbide, high performance
refractories and performance plastics from its four manufacturing locations.
2.2.2
Saint-Gobain Crystals & Detectors India Ltd. (SGCD)

SGCD manufactures and markets radiation detection and measurement
products.
2.2.3
SEPR Refractories India Ltd. (SEPR)

SEPR manufactures and markets electrofused refractories.
2.3
CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTS
2.3.1
Saint-Gobain Weber India Ltd. (SGWI)

SGWI offers facade and tiling solutions and technical mortars
2.3.2
Saint-Gobain SEVA Engineering India Ltd. (SGSEIL)
-6-
SGSEIL manufactures top rolls, tempering furnaces and toolings for the
automotive sector, moulds for containers and some building hardware
products.
2.3.3
India Gypsum
India Gypsum manufactures an extensive range of Gypsum boards and
plasters systems and solutions for partitions, wall panels, ceilings and internal
wall
linings.
In order to further its business growth in the Indian sub-continent, SaintGobain also established the General Delegation for India, Sri Lanka and
Bangladesh in 1996. The Delegation facilitates the establishment of new
businesses in India, ensures synergy and co-ordination between the
businesses and companies in India.
-7-
GRINDWELL NORTON LIMITED

Founded in the year 1941, Grindwell Abrasives, as Grindwell Norton was then
known, pioneered the manufacture of grinding wheels in India at its plant
located in a small fishing village near Mumbai. Grindwell Norton Ltd. (GNO)
came into being when a technical collaboration in 1967 between Grindwell
and the then world leader in abrasives Norton Company, USA, grew into a
financial collaboration in 1971. In 1990, Saint-Gobain acquired Norton
Company, USA, worldwide, and six years later, GNO became the first
majority-owned subsidiary of Saint-Gobain in India.
Today, GNO is Indias leading manufacturer of Abrasives (Bonded, Coated,
Non-Woven, Superabrasives and Thin Wheels) and Silicon Carbide. It also
manufactures and markets High Performance Refractories and Performance
Plastics products. GNOs Project Engineering Group (PEG), with its portfolio
of diverse projects, is a proven engineering resource for Saint-Gobain
companies in India and internationally. Headquartered in Mumbai, GNO has
four manufacturing locations (Mumbai, Nagpur, Bangalore and Tirupati) and
12 sales offices across the country. This broadly sums up the extensive reach
of GNO.
In October 2006, GNO had the honour of featuring in Forbes Asias Best
Under a Billion list. It was one of only 23 Indian companies listed among the
top 200 companies, with sales of under a billion dollars, in the Asia-Pacific
Region.
GNO remains committed to the pursuit of becoming a world-class company
with world-class products and processes. It strongly emphasises cutting-edge
technology, restless innovation, customer service and operational freedom.
With the distinct advantage of being a part of the Saint-Gobain and Norton
family, GNO has access to the best of products and technology, enabling it to
provide tomorrows products to customers today.
3.1
PRODUCTS & SERVICES
3.1.1
Abrasives
In 1941, Grindwell made the first grinding wheel in India. It has since been
offering the best abrasive technology to Indian Industry. In the abrasives
segment, Grindwell offers a full product range in Bonded Abrasives, Coated
Abrasives and Non-woven abrasives including grinding wheels, abrasive discs
and handpads.
3.1.2
Ceramics
Ceramics, the material of the future has a wide range of industrial applications
ranging from high temperature refractories, wear parts, fused cast ceramics to
-8-
filters for chemical plants and much more. The Ceramics business of GNO is
divided into HPR and SiC.
The High Performance Refractories (HPR) division of Grindwell Norton offers
complete solutions, through its expertise in design engineering and
manufacturing refractory systems for high temperature and wear applications.
Silicon Carbide (SiC) is a synthetic material most commonly produced by the
so-called Acheson process in electrical resistance furnaces. SiC does not
occur naturally except in some types of pre-solar meteorites, along with
diamonds! SiC can be produced either black or green, depending on the raw
materials. The GNO SiC product range includes:
v
v
v
v
v
3.1.3
SiC MET:
SiC REF:
SiC ABR:
SiC WS:
SiC TECH:
Products for Metallurgical Applications

Products for Refractory Applications
Products for Abrasives Applications
Products for Slurry Wire Sawing
Products for Technical Ceramics
Performance Plastics
Saint-Gobains Performance Plastics division is a recognised authority in
advanced polymer technology. It produces and markets more than 800
standard and custom polymer products through three businesses: Engineered
Components, Fluid Systems and Composites. Each demonstrates innovation,
responsiveness to customer needs and polymer expertise.
Engineered Components uses advanced technology to create narrow
tolerance products such as bearings, seals used in the automotive, aerospace
and chemical industries. Its products include seals, polymer products, and
bearings.
Fluid Systems produces silicone and thermoplastic tubes and hoses,
connectors, process vessels etc. for critical fluid handing in demanding
applications - pharmaceutical, medical, food, beverage and laboratories.
Composites business products include specialty films, composite foams and
coated fabrics.
3.1.4

The Project Engineering Group (PEG) is a division of Grindwell Norton Ltd.
established in the early seventies. It was primarily established for setting up
Grindwell Norton's plants and equipment in-house. PEG has come a long way
and has several achievements to its credit. Over the years, it has set up large
scale complex projects for Grindwell Norton and for other Saint-Gobain group
companies in India and abroad. PEG has two sub-divisions Projects &
Building Products & Solutions.
-9-
Projects Today, PEG resources are available from concept to commissioning,

be it a green-field venture or design and manufacture of special purpose
machines. PEG provides services in the field of Design & Engineering,
Planning, Project Management, Environmental Management / Consultancy /
Total Solutions, Construction and Supervision, Erection and Commissioning.
Along with design and development, the planning and management of the
entire project is carried out through meticulous detailing and documentary
back up, inclusive of budgets and time schedules. Specialized Project
Management Software is utilized for the timely and economical execution of
the Projects. With a wealth of experience and expertise, PEG ensures the
completion of projects to specifications, within budget and as per schedule.
PEG is headquartered at Bangalore, within the Grindwell Norton campus and
is equipped with modern infrastructure for design and engineering and a
Design center with advanced software.
Building Products & Solutions The PEG actively markets Building Hardware in
the Indian sub-continent, through the Building Products and Solutions (BPS)
business group. This sub-division of PEG offers a wide range of products to
customers with reliable techno-economic solutions, thus ensuring an array of
repeat customers. The present range of products is listed in the BPS section,
and the major strategy for this business focuses on expansion of the product
range with synergistic products.
- 10 -
THE PROJECT
4.1
PROJECT
Forecasting and Reordering Model for source products for Coated Abrasives
Business
4.2
PROJECT INTRODUCTION
Grindwell Norton Limited manufactures and markets abrasives, silicon
carbide, high performance refractories and performance plastics from its four
marketing locations. However many of GNOs products are sourced from
other Grindwell Norton locations outside India. In sourcing these materials
from abroad, GNO incurs many costs such as Purchasing Cost,
Transportation Cost, Storage Cost, Interest on Held Capital, Ordering Cost.
Since these materials have a growing market in India, the company cant
afford a stock-out. At the same time, over-ordering and storage of the
materials with its associated costs will make the business unviable.
This project therefore aims at developing a sales forecasting model for the
highest value sourced Stock Keeping Units (SKUs) of the coated abrasives
business of GNO, and thereafter devise a reordering model so as to minimise
ordering and storage costs.
4.3
PROJECT OBJECTIVES
v Developing a sales forecasting model for each of these SKUs depending
on the sales pattern shown in the past taking care of the trend, business
cycle and seasonal effects.
v Projecting the future sales for each identified SKU for next two years.
v Recommending the reordering point alongwith the safety stock for each
SKU as per the required service level.
4.4
PROJECT PROGRESS
4.4.1
Development of Sales Forecasting Model

Forecasting is the process of estimation of unknown situations. Forecasting is
required because of the time lag between awareness of an impending event
or need and occurrence of that event. Now since each area of an organisation
is related to others, a good or bad forecast can affect the entire organisation.
Some areas, in which forecasting plays an important role are production
planning, scheduling and resource acquisition.
In this specific case, GNO sources some of its products from overseas, and
therefore the lead time is quite high. Since overstocking will lead to holding up
of capital, and understocking will cause business opportunity loss, maintaining
- 11 -
the correct inventory for these items is important for GNO. Herein forecasting
steps in, and tries to give a fair estimate of future demand of these items to
the manager so that their purchasing can be planned accordingly.
4.4.1.1 Selecting a Forecasting Method
Forecasting is mainly done relying on the information of past sales data. In
this case, with the time series of sales figures obtained in the previous
exercise, analysis will be done to develop individual forecasting models. For
developing such models, various methods are used. Some of the questions
that must be considered before deciding on the most appropriate forecasting
technique for a particular problem are the following:
v
v
v
v
What are the characteristics of the available data?

What time period is to be forecast?
What are the minimum data requirements?
How much accuracy is desired?
A general idea can be had from the following table about the capabilities of
different forecasting techniques, and their applicability.
Method
Data
Pattern
Nave
ST, T, S
Simple Averages
ST
Moving Averages
ST
Exponential
ST
Smoothing
Linear Exponential
T
Smoothing
Quadratic
T
Exponential
Smoothing
Winters Exponential
T, S
Smoothing
Simple Regression
T
Multiple Regression
C, S
Classical
S
Decomposition
Box Jenkins
ST, T, C, S
Minimum Data
Requirements
NonSeason
seasonal
al
1
30
4-20
2
Time
Horizon
Type of
Model
S
S
S
S
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
TS
S, I
TS
I
I
S
C
C
TS
10
10
TS
24
2xL
5xL
Data Pattern: ST, stationary; T, trended; S, seasonal; C, cyclical

Time Horizon: S, short term; I, intermediate; L, long term
Type of Model: TS, time series; C, casual
Seasonal: L, length of seasonality
Table 1: Characteristics of various Forecasting Methods

- 12 -
3xL
The sales pattern for the selected items were studied to ascertain the
characteristics of the sales first. Figure 2 below depicts the sales for item
AOP26 for illustration.
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
20
03
20 01
03
20 03
03
20 05
03
20 07
03
20 09
03
20 11
04
20 01
04
20 03
04
20 05
04
20 07
04
20 09
04
20 11
05
20 01
05
20 03
05
20 05
05
20 07
05
20 09
05
20 11
06
20 01
06
20 03
06
20 05
06
20 07
06
20 09
06
20 11
07
20 01
07
20 03
07
20 05
07
20 07
07
20 09
07
11
Sales in Units
Monthly Sales Data for Item AOP26
Month
Figure 2: Sales pattern of an SKU

As can be observed from the figure, the sales pattern is trended upwards with
strong seasonal variations. For example, there is a definite upward spike in
the month of November, and sales are particularly down in the month of
January.
Similar analysis was done for all the 17 selected items, and they all tended to
show a trend, and seasonal variations. Taking this into account, the Winters
Exponential Smoothing Method was used for projecting future sales. Here,
even Box-Jenkins Method could have been used but Winters Method was
chosen above it because of the following reasons:
v Box-Jenkins Method is suitable for forecasting for short smaller time
horizons, while Winters Method can be used for medium term
forecasts also, which was the requirement.
v Box-Jenkins Method is considered to be more accurate than Winters
Method of forecasting, but it is not adaptive, and a new model has to be
developed after each time period.
v The time consumed in developing a model by Box-Jenkins Method is
very time consuming, and since in its case, the model is required to be
built every time-period, the overall investment is quite high.
v Winters Method can be easily programmed into a computer program
for automatic model building, while it is not possible to do it in BoxJenkins Method since it requires human judgement.
v The accuracy required for the job can be easily achieved by Winters
Method, which makes it imprudent to make substantial investment in
developing models by Box-Jenkins Method.
- 13 -
4.4.1.2 Winters Method

Winters Forecasting Method is actually an improvement over the Exponential
Smoothening Method of Forecasting so that it takes care of the Seasonal &
Trend components. One of the main advantages of the method is that it is
adaptive, implying that the model developed tends to improve itself with each
data point added into the data base. So, it with time the estimated
components of level, trend, and seasonality change, the model detects that
and modifies itself accordingly.
The Winters Model assumes the following pattern:
Systematic Component of Demand = (Level + Trend) x Seasonal Factor
To begin, the model needs estimates of level (L0), trend (T0) and seasonal
factors (S1, S2, ..Sp), where p is the periodicity of demand. These initial
estimates are obtained using regression techniques on the initial data-figures
of sales. Then, further data-figures are employed to refine these initial
estimates.
In period t, given estimates of level Lt, trend Tt, and seasonal factors St,
..St+p-1, the forecast for future periods is given by:
Ft+1 = (Lt + Tt) St+1 and Ft+l = (Lt + l.Tt) St+l
On observing the demand for period t+1 (Dt+1)we revise the estimates for
level, trend and seasonal factors as follows:
Lt+1 = (Dt+1/St+1) + (1- ) (Lt + Tt)
Tt+1 = (Lt+1 Lt) + (1 ) Tt
St+p-1 = (Dt+1/Lt+1) + (1 ) St+1
Where is the smoothing constant for the level, 0 < < 1; is the smoothing
constant for the trend, 0 < < 1; and is the smoothing constant for seasonal
factor, 0 < < 1. These smoothing constants determine the rate at which the
estimates of level, trend and seasonality are updated by the model. For
determining suitable values of these constants, hit-and-trial method is used,
wherein several combinations of smoothing constant values are tried on the
past sales data to observe the forecasting error. Thereafter the combination of
values of these constants, which minimises the forecasting error is used for
actual estimation of future sales.
4.4.1.3 Model Development

Using the Winters Method explained above, a model was developed for each
of the selected items using their past sales data. The individual models for
each of these items are shown hereunder in tables 3 to 19.
- 14 -
Calculated Figures
Level
Trend Factor
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Seasonal Factors
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12
Adjustment Factor Alpha
Adjustment Factor Beta
Adjustment Factor Gamma
12594.44
158.93
1.58
1.13
2.33
1.57
1.35
1.94
2.25
1.11
1.31
0.76
1.28
1.99
0.0000
0.0000
0.3000
Table 2: Forecasting Model for ANS57

Calculated Figures
Level
Trend Factor
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Seasonal Factors
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12
2296.73
41.45
0.58
0.86
1.03
0.75
1.32
2.05
0.64
2.47
1.77
0.64
3.07
0.82
0.0000
0.0000
0.1000
Table 3: Forecasting Model for ANS60
- 15 -
Calculated Figures
Level
Trend Factor
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Seasonal Factors
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12
28282.76
558.72
0.53
0.09
0.37
2.06
1.09
0.51
1.43
0.56
0.08
0.49
0.83
0.97
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125
Table 4: Forecasting Model for AOP23
Calculated Figures
Level
Trend Factor
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Seasonal Factors
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12
7157.99
198.54
1.50
3.53
2.27
3.24
3.81
3.66
1.22
2.69
1.72
1.45
2.59
1.54
0.0000
0.0000
0.2000
- 16 -
Calculated Figures
Level
Trend Factor
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Seasonal Factors
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12
12207.79
348.79
0.50
3.53
1.82
2.51
3.47
1.29
0.90
1.15
0.87
1.19
1.91
0.79
0.0000
0.0000
0.1000
Calculated Figures
Level
Trend Factor
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Seasonal Factors
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12
35973.80
402.44
0.91
0.85
0.83
1.25
2.42
1.13
0.89
1.21
1.59
1.25
1.66
0.83
0.0250
0.0000
0.4000
- 17 -
Calculated Figures
Level
Trend Factor
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Seasonal Factors
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12
208385.49
7499.95
0.65
0.57
0.49
0.88
2.05
1.09
0.51
0.39
0.53
0.50
0.75
0.57
0.0250
0.2000
0.3000
Calculated Figures
Level
Trend Factor
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Seasonal Factors
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12
247815.16
10196.08
1.88
0.69
0.80
0.46
1.27
1.38
0.34
0.52
0.90
0.74
0.63
0.74
0.0250
0.1500
0.5000
- 18 -
Calculated Figures
Level
Trend Factor
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Seasonal Factors
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12
79587.21
1046.75
0.07
0.25
0.27
0.29
0.07
0.06
0.74
0.32
0.59
0.32
1.34
0.15
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125
Calculated Figures
Level
Trend Factor
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Seasonal Factors
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12
68723.41
2000.25
0.10
0.00
0.59
0.56
0.30
0.14
0.55
0.03
1.03
0.83
0.33
0.00
0.0250
0.0500
0.0000
- 19 -
Calculated Figures
Level
Trend Factor
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Seasonal Factors
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12
8918.13
232.09
0.72
1.55
0.62
3.21
1.05
2.10
1.31
1.23
1.46
0.72
1.64
1.23
0.0000
0.0000
0.1000
Calculated Figures
Level
Trend Factor
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Seasonal Factors
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12
13788.28
209.68
0.81
1.03
0.69
1.23
1.40
3.16
0.53
0.99
2.46
1.03
2.10
1.32
0.0000
0.0000
0.3000
- 20 -
Calculated Figures
Level
Trend Factor
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Seasonal Factors
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12
52515.42
781.24
0.30
1.13
0.68
0.99
0.66
2.63
0.61
0.93
1.19
1.29
2.04
0.44
0.0000
0.0000
0.2000
Calculated Figures
Level
Trend Factor
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Seasonal Factors
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12
97339.69
1383.01
0.22
0.76
0.72
1.12
0.84
3.70
0.46
1.19
1.17
1.09
2.13
0.48
0.0000
0.0000
0.2000
- 21 -
Calculated Figures
Level
Trend Factor
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Seasonal Factors
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12
186658.32
2877.56
0.00
1.04
0.53
0.81
1.05
2.33
0.46
0.46
0.61
1.34
2.59
0.00
0.0250
0.0000
0.0000
Calculated Figures
Level
Trend Factor
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Seasonal Factors
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12
24512.17
500.54
0.22
1.23
0.26
0.71
0.55
1.16
1.12
0.61
1.00
1.15
2.62
0.00
0.0250
0.0500
0.0000
- 22 -
Calculated Figures
Level
Trend Factor
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Seasonal Factors
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12
17305.91
253.70
0.43
1.98
1.20
1.63
1.50
2.19
1.77
0.51
2.14
1.71
1.65
1.48
0.0000
0.0000
0.2000
4.4.2
Projecting Future Sales

Using the sales forecasting models developed for each SKU, their respective
future sales for next two years were projected. These figures feature in the
Forecasted Figures part of the Input & Output Sheet for each item as
shown in Appendix 1. Also, a table showing consolidated projected sales
figures is given in the appendix.
4.4.3
Recommending Reorder Point & Order Quantity
4.4.3.1 Reorder Point

The reorder point for replenishment of stock occurs when the level of
inventory drops down to zero. In view of instantaneous replenishment of stock
the level of inventory jumps to the original level from zero level. But in real life
situations one never encounters a zero lead-time. There is always a time lag
from the date of placing an order for material and the date on which materials
are received. As a result the reorder level is always at a level higher than
zero, and if the firm places the order when the inventory reaches the reorder
point, the new goods will arrive before the firm runs out of goods to sell. The
decision on how much stock to hold is generally referred to as the order point
problem, that is, how low should the inventory be depleted before it is
reordered.
The two factors that determine the appropriate order point are the
procurement or delivery time stock which is the Inventory needed during the
- 23 -
lead time (i.e., the difference between the order date and the receipt of the
inventory ordered) and the safety stock which is the minimum level of
inventory that is held as a protection against shortages.
Therefore Reorder Point = Normal consumption during lead-time + Safety
Stock.
Several factors determine how much delivery time stock and safety stock
should be held. In summary, the efficiency of a replenishment system affects
how much delivery time is needed. Since the delivery time stock is the
expected inventory usage between ordering and receiving inventory, efficient
replenishment of inventory would reduce the need for delivery time stock. And
the determination of level of safety stock involves a basic trade-off between
the risk of stock-out, resulting in possible customer dissatisfaction and lost
sales, and the increased costs associated with carrying additional inventory.
Normal consumption during lead time is calculated as
D0 x L0
where
D0 is average demand per period during lead time, and

L0 is average lead time
And Safety Stock is calculated is

F.(L0.D2 + D02.L2)
where
F is a factor pertaining to the service level required

D is standard deviation of demand per period, and
L is standard deviation of lead time
For the project, the service level considered was 95%, therefore the value of F
used is 1.96.
4.4.3.2 Order Quantity
Order Quantity is an important variable in Inventory Management. This is
because a lot of cost drivers are dependent on the order quantity.
-
the more the order quantity, the more the capital held up in
inventory
the more the order quantity, the more storage space required
the more the order quantity, the more chances of pilferage and
obsolescence
the more the order quantity, the more discounts available
the more the order quantity, the less follow-up required
the more the order quantity, the less the over-all transportation
cost, and so on.
- 24 -
In general, with increase in the order quantity, total holding cost for inventory
increases and total ordering cost for inventory decreases. Therefore, one
needs to strike a balance between the holding cost and the ordering cost by
changing the order quantity so as to minimise total cost.
Generally, in cases where the lead time is not very high, firms calculate the
Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) for the items and order them accordingly.
EOQ is that level of inventory that minimizes the total of inventory holding cost
and ordering cost, and is calculated as:
EOQ = (2.R.CO/CH)
Where R is the total item demand for the year
CO is the ordering cost (fixed cost associated with processing each
order)
CH is the holding cost per piece of item per year
In other cases, where the lead time is quite high, sometimes the EOQ is not
even able to take care of the product demand in the lead time for the next
order. In these cases, the order quantity is taken to be same as the product
demand in the lead time.
4.4.3.2.1
Ordering Cost
The ordering cost includes all incremental costs associated with placing or
receiving an extra order that are incurred regardless of the size of the order.
For the project, the Ordering Cost was calculated taking care of the following
components.
v
v
v
v
Buyer Time
Transportation Costs
Receiving Costs
Fee, tax and other applicable charges
The ordering cost was finally calculated as INR 1550 for sea transported
consignment and INR 550 for air transported consignment.
4.4.3.2.2
Holding Cost
Holding Cost is estimated as a percentage of the cost of a particular product

and is the sum of the following components.
v
v
v
v
Cost of capital
Obsolescence Cost
Handling Cost
Occupancy Cost
The handling cost of the items in the project was calculated as 13% of item
cost.
- 25 -
4.4.3.3 Calculation of Reorder Point (ROP) and Order Quantity

For ready calculation of ROP and order quantity, an excel model was
developed, which calculated both the figures given some required inputs. The
features of the Excel Model are:
v The model integrated with the sales forecasting model, making things
easier.
v The model provides updated results every time the sales history is
updated with recent data.
v The model not only suggests the ROP and order quantity, but also
recommends the mode of order transport that would be economical
taking care of the capital costs and product demand.
Since the foreign exchange rates and even prices of the items keep varying
frequently, no fixed values for the ROP and order quantity were provided. It
was recommended that inventory level of the items be regularly kept track of,
and ROP and order quantity be calculated each time an order is to be placed.
The model however, is depicted in Appendix 2 (with hypothetical figures).
- 26 -
INPUTS & SOURCES OF INFORMATION

For progress of the project, data and information was obtained from various
parts of the organisation. The sources of all required information are given
hereunder.
5.1
SALES FIGURES
The month-wise sales figures for each SKU was sought from the marketing
department. The department uses a central software database that keeps
tracks of the sales figures of all SKUs.
5.2
LEAD TIMES
For the purpose of calculating safety stock and reordering point, the lead
times for each were required. Information regarding sources of individual
items, alternative modes of transportation, and standard deviation in lead
times of each item was required. All this data was provided by the Customer
Service Department which is responsible for tracking the inventory levels and
ordering items as and when required.
Complete history of past orders placed, along with order date and date of
arrival was provided by the department, which was then used to calculate the
required figures. Other modes of information gathering, like interviews were
also made use of for getting a clearer picture.
5.3
HOLDING COST
The holding cost for items contains many different components as discussed
earlier.
-
the main component of holding cost was discovered to be the

Capital Cost, standing at 12.9%. The data regarding the WACC
for the company was collected from the Finance Department.
since the products have no practical expiry, that part required no
care.
In as much as GNO has a large storage space with no
incremental cost for individual items, no addition in holding cost
is made.
handling costs per item were calculated, and they contributed
little to the overall holding cost.
Finally the value of CH was set to 13% of item cost.
5.4
ORDERING COST
Ordering Cost again is an aggregate of various costs. These individual cost
data was collected from various sources.
- 27 -
the main component of the ordering was discovered to be the

per order fee paid to the Consignment Clearing Agents
employed. The agents charge a fixed sum of INR 5000 for
clearing of sea transport consignments and INR 1000 for
clearing of air transport consignments.
other major component of the ordering cost is a fixed fee paid to
the customs department for warehousing of consignments
finally the contribution of buyers time was added in the ordering
cost to get the final figure
All this time, information was sought from various departments including
Accounts Department, Stores Department etc.
- 28 -
CONCLUSION
Inventory Management is an important aspect of any business involving
manufacturing & marketing because of the sheer magnitude of its impact, may
it be positive or negative. Recently, some businesses have based their
business strategy itself on better management of inventory.
Sales forecasting is an important of inventory management. It gives the
management an overview of the things to come in the future, and therefore
readies them for eventualities including inventory management.
In the project, improvement in inventory management system of the company
has been endeavoured through future sales projections, and then calculating
the Reorder Point and Order Quantity for many items.
From the project, finally the following outcomes have been found:
v A generic Excel program for forecasting of sales (for any item) based
on past sales data
v Calculated values of sales forecasts for selected items in a
consolidated table
v A generic Excel program for finding the ROP and order quantity (for
any item) based on sales forecasts generated by the program
described in (ii).
- 29 -
REFERENCES
v Box, E.P. and Jenkins, G.M. (1976), Time Series Analysis:
forecasting & control, Holden-Day Inc., San Francisco
v Hanke, J.E. and Reitch, A.G. (1981), Business Forecasting, Allyn &
Bacon, London
v Spyros M.; Wheelright S.C. and Hyndman R.J. (1998), Forecasting:
methods and applications, John Wiley & Sons Inc., Singapore
v Chopra, Sunil and Meindl, Peter (2003), Supply Chain Management:
strategy, planning and operation, Pearson Education, New Delhi
- 30 -
APPENDICES
APPENDIX 1
Input and Output Sheet for ANS57

Actual Sales Data
S. No. Month
Sales
1
200301
0
2
200302
0
3
200303
0
4
200304
0
5
200305
0
6
200306
0
7
200307
0
8
200308
27000
9
200309
8500
10
200310
13000
11
200311
21000
12
200312
2500
13
200401
4500
14
200402
14000
15
200403
4500
16
200404
17500
17
200405
7500
18
200406
13000
19
200407
0
20
200408
0
21
200409
30500
22
200410
5500
23
200411
15000
24
200412
500
25
200501
19500
26
200502
7500
27
200503
7000
28
200504
14000
29
200505
12500
30
200506
0
31
200507
31500
32
200508
1500
33
200509
0
34
200510
0
35
200511
25000
36
200512
75000
37
200601
17000
38
200602
4500
39
200603
6000
40
200604
32000
41
200605
29000
42
200606
11500
43
200607
20500
44
200608
19000
45
200609
25000
46
200610
13000
47
200611
10500
48
200612
36000
49
200701
26000
50
200702
23000
51
200703
74500
52
200704
11000
53
200705
14000
54
200706
58000
55
200707
50000
56
200708
5500
57
200709
5000
58
200710
6500
59
200711
0
60
200712
0
Calculated Figures
Level
Trend Factor
Seasonal Factors
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12

A 1-1
12594.44
158.93
1.58
1.13
2.33
1.57
1.35
1.94
2.25
1.11
1.31
0.76
1.28
1.99
0.0000
0.0000
0.3000
Month
200801
200802
200803
200804
200805
200806
200807
200808
200809
200810
200811
200812
200901
200902
200903
200904
200905
200906
200907
200908
200909
200910
200911
200912
Forecasted Figures
Sales
20209.01
14584.60
30412.44
20785.85
18120.42
26338.51
Year 2008 252960.96
30856.30
15407.11
18304.85
10840.66
18297.83
28803.39
23231.04
16738.71
34849.68
23782.13
20701.46
30046.13 Year 2009 288439.35
35149.51
17526.22
20793.98
12298.27
20730.87
32591.36
Calculation Sheet (2) for ANS57

S.No. Error Value
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
7153.88
7290.78
8106.03
10315.46
18495.35
8924.04
6636.20
6806.67
7609.44
9696.74
17129.26
8924.79
6220.53
6394.54
7151.19
9072.00
15655.33
8885.57
5733.96
5867.65
6511.64
8152.34
13610.08
8417.57
5372.80
5460.50
6004.00
7424.75
12131.69
7792.37
4857.67
4878.27
5282.00
6409.12
10195.34
6748.85
6308.03
6689.45
7713.34
10084.55
18042.61
10261.15
5981.69
6358.41
7340.60
9572.94
16809.05
10336.30
5645.65
5991.42
6894.11
8924.36
15279.47
10174.02
5151.22
5416.58
6157.60
7838.92
12968.11
9277.27
4770.67
4968.14
5579.86
6999.08
11320.54
8324.97
4249.56
4359.65
4805.53
5894.70
9261.88
6932.45
5558.34
6065.69
7166.61
9487.16
16470.84
12382.17
5328.34
5803.99
6839.87
9007.96
15330.43
12265.56
4992.09
5402.39
6315.23
8224.56
13634.28
11549.70
4440.66
4733.82
5432.22
6917.08
11054.09
9779.89
4041.67
4254.19
4805.26
6005.18
9357.70
8380.19
3542.31
3664.26
4047.23
4922.55
7413.36
6652.71
4886.60
5311.56
6237.48
8123.41
13069.28
14297.23
4555.08
4909.49
5701.86
7323.75
11503.93
12890.12
4092.01
4352.69
4967.75
6245.17
9502.50
10809.20
3472.63
3622.31
4025.28
4893.33
7112.44
8092.46
3106.36
3200.14
3493.17
4147.07
5835.23
6579.65
2715.58
2759.62
2949.51
3397.69
4575.81
5064.77
4205.78
4357.26
4824.21
5867.14
8480.85
11032.54
3795.14
3891.95
4242.14
5051.55
7086.92
9173.19
3323.17
3368.64
3604.30
4180.39
5643.53
7200.25
2807.18
2812.25
2947.19
3308.61
4241.11
5251.13
2545.54
2537.75
2632.18
2900.64
3597.42
4348.64
2294.79
2281.02
2344.32
2533.85
3023.20
3539.57
2050.71
2013.30
2003.15
2033.27
2235.30
2284.96
4347.54
Combination Values
Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0
0.2
0.15
0.5
0.2
0.15
0.4
0.2
0.15
0.3
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0
0.2
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0
0.2
0.05
0.5
0.2
0.05
0.4
0.2
0.05
0.3
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0
0.2
0.025
0.5
0.2
0.025
0.4
0.2
0.025
0.3
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0
0.2
0
0.5
0.2
0
0.4
0.2
0
0.3
0.2
0
0.2
0.2
0
0.1
0.2
0
0
0.15
0.2
0.5
0.15
0.2
0.4
0.15
0.2
0.3
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.2
0
0.15
0.15
0.5
0.15
0.15
0.4
0.15
0.15
0.3
0.15
0.15
0.2
0.15
0.15
0.1
0.15
0.15
0
0.15
0.1
0.5
0.15
0.1
0.4
0.15
0.1
0.3
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0.1
0
0.15
0.05
0.5
0.15
0.05
0.4
0.15
0.05
0.3
0.15
0.05
0.2
0.15
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.05
0
0.15
0.025
0.5
0.15
0.025
0.4
0.15
0.025
0.3
0.15
0.025
0.2
0.15
0.025
0.1
0.15
0.025
0
0.15
0
0.5
0.15
0
0.4
0.15
0
0.3
0.15
0
0.2
0.15
0
0.1
0.15
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0
0.1
0.15
0.5
0.1
0.15
0.4
0.1
0.15
0.3
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0
0.1
0.05
0.5
0.1
0.05
0.4
0.1
0.05
0.3
0.1
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0
0.1
0.025
0.5
0.1
0.025
0.4
0.1
0.025
0.3
0.1
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0
0.1
0
0.5
0.1
0
0.4
0.1
0
0.3
0.1
0
0.2
0.1
0
0.1
0.1
0
0
0.05
0.2
0.5
0.05
0.2
0.4
0.05
0.2
0.3
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.2
0
0.05
0.15
0.5
0.05
0.15
0.4
0.05
0.15
0.3
0.05
0.15
0.2
0.05
0.15
0.1
0.05
0.15
0
0.05
0.1
0.5
0.05
0.1
0.4
0.05
0.1
0.3
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.1
0
0.05
0.05
0.5
0.05
0.05
0.4
0.05
0.05
0.3
0.05
0.05
0.2
0.05
0.05
0.1
0.05
0.05
0
0.05
0.025
0.5
0.05
0.025
0.4
0.05
0.025
0.3
0.05
0.025
0.2
0.05
0.025
0.1
0.05
0.025
0
0.05
0
0.5
0.05
0
0.4
0.05
0
0.3
0.05
0
0.2
0.05
0
0.1
0.05
0
0
0.025
0.2
0.5
0.025
0.2
0.4
0.025
0.2
0.3
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.2
0
0.025
0.15
0.5
0.025
0.15
0.4
0.025
0.15
0.3
0.025
0.15
0.2
0.025
0.15
0.1
0.025
0.15
0
0.025
0.1
0.5
0.025
0.1
0.4
0.025
0.1
0.3
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0.1
0
0.025
0.05
0.5
0.025
0.05
0.4
0.025
0.05
0.3
0.025
0.05
0.2
0.025
0.05
0.1
0.025
0.05
0
0.025
0.025
0.5
0.025
0.025
0.4
0.025
0.025
0.3
0.025
0.025
0.2
0.025
0.025
0.1
0.025
0.025
0
0.025
0
0.5
0.025
0
0.4
0.025
0
0.3
0.025
0
0.2
0.025
0
0.1
0.025
0
0
0
0
0.5
0
0
0.4
0
0
0.3
0
0
0.2
0
0
0.1
0
0
0
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125
2003.15
A 1-3
Suitable Combination Values

Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0
0
0.3
Input and Output Sheet for ANS60

Actual Sales Data
S. No. Month
Sales
1
200301
0
2
200302
0
3
200303
0
4
200304
0
5
200305
0
6
200306
0
7
200307
0
8
200308
5500
9
200309
0
10
200310
500
11
200311
3500
12
200312
1000
13
200401
1000
14
200402
2500
15
200403
0
16
200404
0
17
200405
1500
18
200406
3000
19
200407
1500
20
200408
2000
21
200409
6500
22
200410
0
23
200411
0
24
200412
0
25
200501
3500
26
200502
500
27
200503
500
28
200504
1000
29
200505
0
30
200506
11000
31
200507
1500
32
200508
1000
33
200509
4000
34
200510
1000
35
200511
7500
36
200512
3500
37
200601
0
38
200602
0
39
200603
0
40
200604
0
41
200605
2000
42
200606
3000
43
200607
0
44
200608
4000
45
200609
2000
46
200610
8000
47
200611
32500
48
200612
7000
49
200701
0
50
200702
3500
51
200703
19500
52
200704
13500
53
200705
17500
54
200706
8000
55
200707
4300
56
200708
1000
57
200709
500
58
200710
500
59
200711
0
60
200712
0
Calculated Figures
Level
Trend Factor
Seasonal Factors
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12

A 1-4
2296.73
41.45
0.58
0.86
1.03
0.75
1.32
2.05
0.64
2.47
1.77
0.64
3.07
0.82
0.0000
0.0000
0.1000
Month
200801
200802
200803
200804
200805
200806
200807
200808
200809
200810
200811
200812
200901
200902
200903
200904
200905
200906
200907
200908
200909
200910
200911
200912
Forecasted Figures
Sales
1362.45
2057.10
2503.52
1853.92
3313.21
5226.51
Year 2008 41699.55
1664.53
6485.39
4735.16
1736.86
8456.76
2304.13
1652.30
2487.10
3017.87
2228.41
3971.38
6247.85 Year 2009 49674.40
1984.59
7712.76
5617.38
2055.52
9984.92
2714.32
Calculation Sheet (2) for ANS60

S.No. Error Value
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
6697.99
7794.65
10404.52
17685.19
54033.85
373.90
5232.11
6001.83
7951.90
13497.43
41350.94
367.58
3998.89
4523.22
5927.37
9970.95
30287.14
354.13
2950.13
3288.53
4240.88
7004.61
20828.52
330.77
2482.82
2746.39
3505.08
5712.47
16713.98
313.29
2048.34
2247.91
2833.82
4541.90
13020.96
290.30
6029.71
6685.80
8694.57
14683.74
45261.03
400.80
4775.53
5227.03
6722.24
11240.80
34310.75
385.08
3682.13
3979.62
5047.10
8306.55
24891.41
363.82
2725.01
2907.26
3622.45
5825.71
16969.18
333.21
2289.92
2427.12
2992.73
4742.76
13563.05
312.41
1879.75
1980.05
2413.66
3760.56
10526.16
286.88
4891.08
4982.83
6009.47
9530.53
27935.74
404.54
3907.32
3948.05
4707.08
7348.47
21107.41
383.16
3037.87
3040.93
3573.58
5464.22
15275.17
356.27
2263.63
2241.44
2587.16
3851.60
10396.85
320.28
1904.58
1875.21
2142.60
3140.18
8303.85
297.89
1559.99
1528.15
1728.10
2490.16
6438.40
272.63
2833.61
2622.71
2789.36
3787.85
9282.92
360.66
2341.32
2150.44
2255.63
2994.06
7099.24
336.77
1886.19
1715.78
1769.59
2285.10
5207.39
308.30
1455.43
1309.24
1324.18
1655.35
3597.48
275.70
1245.11
1113.94
1115.30
1369.66
2897.30
258.51
1036.22
923.09
915.63
1104.18
2267.97
241.48
1548.55
1361.59
1317.85
1528.84
2945.38
295.13
1326.51
1157.79
1105.13
1249.95
2305.30
276.05
1106.55
958.63
901.76
991.86
1738.59
256.64
885.81
762.81
707.66
755.59
1246.94
237.94
774.45
666.03
614.43
646.40
1030.40
229.33
662.37
570.28
524.29
543.98
834.42
221.54
249.39
232.93
220.05
211.54
210.00
211.44
5975.26
Combination Values
Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0
0.2
0.15
0.5
0.2
0.15
0.4
0.2
0.15
0.3
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0
0.2
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0
0.2
0.05
0.5
0.2
0.05
0.4
0.2
0.05
0.3
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0
0.2
0.025
0.5
0.2
0.025
0.4
0.2
0.025
0.3
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0
0.2
0
0.5
0.2
0
0.4
0.2
0
0.3
0.2
0
0.2
0.2
0
0.1
0.2
0
0
0.15
0.2
0.5
0.15
0.2
0.4
0.15
0.2
0.3
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.2
0
0.15
0.15
0.5
0.15
0.15
0.4
0.15
0.15
0.3
0.15
0.15
0.2
0.15
0.15
0.1
0.15
0.15
0
0.15
0.1
0.5
0.15
0.1
0.4
0.15
0.1
0.3
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0.1
0
0.15
0.05
0.5
0.15
0.05
0.4
0.15
0.05
0.3
0.15
0.05
0.2
0.15
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.05
0
0.15
0.025
0.5
0.15
0.025
0.4
0.15
0.025
0.3
0.15
0.025
0.2
0.15
0.025
0.1
0.15
0.025
0
0.15
0
0.5
0.15
0
0.4
0.15
0
0.3
0.15
0
0.2
0.15
0
0.1
0.15
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0
0.1
0.15
0.5
0.1
0.15
0.4
0.1
0.15
0.3
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0
0.1
0.05
0.5
0.1
0.05
0.4
0.1
0.05
0.3
0.1
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0
0.1
0.025
0.5
0.1
0.025
0.4
0.1
0.025
0.3
0.1
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0
0.1
0
0.5
0.1
0
0.4
0.1
0
0.3
0.1
0
0.2
0.1
0
0.1
0.1
0
0
0.05
0.2
0.5
0.05
0.2
0.4
0.05
0.2
0.3
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.2
0
0.05
0.15
0.5
0.05
0.15
0.4
0.05
0.15
0.3
0.05
0.15
0.2
0.05
0.15
0.1
0.05
0.15
0
0.05
0.1
0.5
0.05
0.1
0.4
0.05
0.1
0.3
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.1
0
0.05
0.05
0.5
0.05
0.05
0.4
0.05
0.05
0.3
0.05
0.05
0.2
0.05
0.05
0.1
0.05
0.05
0
0.05
0.025
0.5
0.05
0.025
0.4
0.05
0.025
0.3
0.05
0.025
0.2
0.05
0.025
0.1
0.05
0.025
0
0.05
0
0.5
0.05
0
0.4
0.05
0
0.3
0.05
0
0.2
0.05
0
0.1
0.05
0
0
0.025
0.2
0.5
0.025
0.2
0.4
0.025
0.2
0.3
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.2
0
0.025
0.15
0.5
0.025
0.15
0.4
0.025
0.15
0.3
0.025
0.15
0.2
0.025
0.15
0.1
0.025
0.15
0
0.025
0.1
0.5
0.025
0.1
0.4
0.025
0.1
0.3
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0.1
0
0.025
0.05
0.5
0.025
0.05
0.4
0.025
0.05
0.3
0.025
0.05
0.2
0.025
0.05
0.1
0.025
0.05
0
0.025
0.025
0.5
0.025
0.025
0.4
0.025
0.025
0.3
0.025
0.025
0.2
0.025
0.025
0.1
0.025
0.025
0
0.025
0
0.5
0.025
0
0.4
0.025
0
0.3
0.025
0
0.2
0.025
0
0.1
0.025
0
0
0
0
0.5
0
0
0.4
0
0
0.3
0
0
0.2
0
0
0.1
0
0
0
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125
210.00
A 1-6

Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0
0
0.1
Input and Output Sheet for AOP23

Actual Sales Data
S. No. Month
Sales
1
200301
0
2
200302
0
3
200303
0
4
200304
6500
5
200305
2100
6
200306
0
7
200307
1600
8
200308
3100
9
200309
0
10
200310
1100
11
200311
500
12
200312
2500
13
200401
0
14
200402
1000
15
200403
4000
16
200404
450
17
200405
6950
18
200406
5600
19
200407
17200
20
200408
200
21
200409
900
22
200410
5900
23
200411
13000
24
200412
12600
25
200501
16600
26
200502
0
27
200503
0
28
200504
0
29
200505
0
30
200506
22600
31
200507
0
32
200508
15000
33
200509
0
34
200510
0
35
200511
5400
36
200512
30000
37
200601
0
38
200602
0
39
200603
0
40
200604
2000
41
200605
20000
42
200606
7000
43
200607
11000
44
200608
10800
45
200609
8000
46
200610
15000
47
200611
10000
48
200612
0
49
200701
3800
50
200702
0
51
200703
50500
52
200704
8000
53
200705
32700
54
200706
20400
55
200707
2000
56
200708
7600
57
200709
41500
58
200710
10000
59
200711
99100
60
200712
500
Calculated Figures
Level
Trend Factor
Seasonal Factors
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12

A 1-7
28282.76
558.72
0.53
0.09
0.37
2.06
1.09
0.51
1.43
0.56
0.08
0.49
0.83
0.97
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125
Month
200801
200802
200803
200804
200805
200806
200807
200808
200809
200810
200811
200812
200901
200902
200903
200904
200905
200906
200907
200908
200909
200910
200911
200912
Forecasted Figures
Sales
15348.19
2607.76
11159.23
62949.35
33772.96
16010.23
Year 2008 287860.59
45888.63
18325.05
2731.07
16595.97
28407.05
34065.09
18916.14
3202.45
13656.63
76779.26
41059.44
19403.42 Year 2009 348233.18
55445.42
22076.33
3280.76
19881.21
33939.08
40593.04
Calculation Sheet (2) for AOP23

S.No. Error Value
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
119668.36
78043.05
46121.13
23451.52
10121.24
6754.03
105888.71
69549.04
41437.39
21289.79
9313.36
6178.86
91652.56
60751.34
36566.55
19020.44
8447.41
5581.70
76439.49
51193.05
31171.52
16443.87
7437.77
4922.82
68291.66
45966.81
28152.71
14962.59
6841.65
4547.86
59712.07
40368.40
24857.93
13311.15
6162.15
4126.56
94153.90
61485.64
36433.65
18573.28
7982.52
5305.10
83066.54
54779.83
32808.67
16935.50
7383.47
4861.22
71497.75
47668.67
28890.66
15120.14
6699.72
4388.74
59111.58
39848.24
24448.92
12985.94
5866.17
3849.15
52533.15
35592.09
21966.07
11756.11
5370.85
3538.47
45689.26
31086.75
19288.81
10402.67
4814.07
3192.93
65069.01
43141.29
26031.28
13553.26
5930.62
3873.88
57189.10
38340.02
23408.72
12350.35
5485.84
3563.06
48831.04
33101.77
20455.01
10944.53
4947.83
3211.95
39935.24
27353.26
17103.70
9289.35
4291.58
2801.14
35300.33
24289.83
15275.00
8363.33
3915.79
2570.02
30574.86
21122.24
13356.96
7378.28
3511.55
2323.58
34172.28
23653.65
14983.69
8258.43
3861.04
2494.71
29630.82
20694.11
13240.79
7391.48
3523.13
2292.30
24974.94
17598.91
11380.30
6447.10
3149.45
2072.75
20275.43
14418.41
9434.85
5444.45
2750.89
1844.49
17944.70
12822.59
8448.38
4932.55
2549.00
1732.35
15654.20
11244.11
7467.63
4423.18
2351.23
1626.05
17988.12
13014.89
8675.59
5107.93
2640.05
1783.07
15624.48
11397.19
7674.48
4589.18
2439.92
1679.32
13311.21
9800.32
6679.24
4072.26
2243.95
1583.10
11085.12
8252.12
5709.47
3569.81
2059.90
1500.58
10019.74
7507.55
5242.13
3329.21
1975.53
1466.92
8996.25
6790.27
4791.88
3099.21
1898.44
1439.95
3819.09
3256.25
2651.97
2076.55
1516.62
1526.09
1437.87
1437.87
Combination Values
Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0
0.2
0.15
0.5
0.2
0.15
0.4
0.2
0.15
0.3
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0
0.2
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0
0.2
0.05
0.5
0.2
0.05
0.4
0.2
0.05
0.3
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0
0.2
0.025
0.5
0.2
0.025
0.4
0.2
0.025
0.3
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0
0.2
0
0.5
0.2
0
0.4
0.2
0
0.3
0.2
0
0.2
0.2
0
0.1
0.2
0
0
0.15
0.2
0.5
0.15
0.2
0.4
0.15
0.2
0.3
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.2
0
0.15
0.15
0.5
0.15
0.15
0.4
0.15
0.15
0.3
0.15
0.15
0.2
0.15
0.15
0.1
0.15
0.15
0
0.15
0.1
0.5
0.15
0.1
0.4
0.15
0.1
0.3
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0.1
0
0.15
0.05
0.5
0.15
0.05
0.4
0.15
0.05
0.3
0.15
0.05
0.2
0.15
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.05
0
0.15
0.025
0.5
0.15
0.025
0.4
0.15
0.025
0.3
0.15
0.025
0.2
0.15
0.025
0.1
0.15
0.025
0
0.15
0
0.5
0.15
0
0.4
0.15
0
0.3
0.15
0
0.2
0.15
0
0.1
0.15
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0
0.1
0.15
0.5
0.1
0.15
0.4
0.1
0.15
0.3
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0
0.1
0.05
0.5
0.1
0.05
0.4
0.1
0.05
0.3
0.1
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0
0.1
0.025
0.5
0.1
0.025
0.4
0.1
0.025
0.3
0.1
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0
0.1
0
0.5
0.1
0
0.4
0.1
0
0.3
0.1
0
0.2
0.1
0
0.1
0.1
0
0
0.05
0.2
0.5
0.05
0.2
0.4
0.05
0.2
0.3
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.2
0
0.05
0.15
0.5
0.05
0.15
0.4
0.05
0.15
0.3
0.05
0.15
0.2
0.05
0.15
0.1
0.05
0.15
0
0.05
0.1
0.5
0.05
0.1
0.4
0.05
0.1
0.3
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.1
0
0.05
0.05
0.5
0.05
0.05
0.4
0.05
0.05
0.3
0.05
0.05
0.2
0.05
0.05
0.1
0.05
0.05
0
0.05
0.025
0.5
0.05
0.025
0.4
0.05
0.025
0.3
0.05
0.025
0.2
0.05
0.025
0.1
0.05
0.025
0
0.05
0
0.5
0.05
0
0.4
0.05
0
0.3
0.05
0
0.2
0.05
0
0.1
0.05
0
0
0.025
0.2
0.5
0.025
0.2
0.4
0.025
0.2
0.3
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.2
0
0.025
0.15
0.5
0.025
0.15
0.4
0.025
0.15
0.3
0.025
0.15
0.2
0.025
0.15
0.1
0.025
0.15
0
0.025
0.1
0.5
0.025
0.1
0.4
0.025
0.1
0.3
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0.1
0
0.025
0.05
0.5
0.025
0.05
0.4
0.025
0.05
0.3
0.025
0.05
0.2
0.025
0.05
0.1
0.025
0.05
0
0.025
0.025
0.5
0.025
0.025
0.4
0.025
0.025
0.3
0.025
0.025
0.2
0.025
0.025
0.1
0.025
0.025
0
0.025
0
0.5
0.025
0
0.4
0.025
0
0.3
0.025
0
0.2
0.025
0
0.1
0.025
0
0
0
0
0.5
0
0
0.4
0
0
0.3
0
0
0.2
0
0
0.1
0
0
0
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125

Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125

Actual Sales Data
S. No. Month
Sales
1
200301
0
2
200302
0
3
200303
0
4
200304
5000
5
200305
500
6
200306
150
7
200307
5100
8
200308
500
9
200309
2000
10
200310
2100
11
200311
500
12
200312
3750
13
200401
100
14
200402
2550
15
200403
5400
16
200404
1950
17
200405
8650
18
200406
1000
19
200407
3100
20
200408
0
21
200409
9500
22
200410
0
23
200411
16500
24
200412
0
25
200501
750
26
200502
12500
27
200503
2500
28
200504
0
29
200505
0
30
200506
25000
31
200507
0
32
200508
30500
33
200509
500
34
200510
500
35
200511
15500
36
200512
20000
37
200601
1000
38
200602
12500
39
200603
5000
40
200604
3500
41
200605
40500
42
200606
10000
43
200607
3500
44
200608
4000
45
200609
13400
46
200610
20000
47
200611
12000
48
200612
1500
49
200701
31000
50
200702
0
51
200703
33000
52
200704
47500
53
200705
38100
54
200706
26500
55
200707
2000
56
200708
9500
57
200709
13000
58
200710
16500
59
200711
15000
60
200712
5000
Calculated Figures
Level
Trend Factor
Seasonal Factors
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12

A 1-10
7157.99
198.54
1.50
3.53
2.27
3.24
3.81
3.66
1.22
2.69
1.72
1.45
2.59
1.54
0.0000
0.0000
0.2000
Month
200801
200802
200803
200804
200805
200806
200807
200808
200809
200810
200811
200812
200901
200902
200903
200904
200905
200906
200907
200908
200909
200910
200911
200912
Forecasted Figures
Sales
11039.63
26647.99
17580.47
25730.45
31048.40
30582.36
Year 2008 244043.32
10423.31
23491.50
15369.69
13234.78
24179.17
14715.56
14614.91
35051.40
22982.49
33439.35
40123.98
39309.14 Year 2009 313623.17
13328.56
29890.55
19463.44
16683.35
30345.60
18390.39

S.No. Error Value
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
10627.23
13074.32
18371.11
30124.60
59298.65
150007.99
8935.50
11100.59
15757.72
26052.94
51572.44
130985.56
7584.44
9459.55
13474.61
22325.81
44233.76
112457.24
6354.80
7886.02
11176.39
18443.23
36459.53
92808.71
5709.15
7020.04
9865.40
16192.03
31971.74
81713.82
4997.84
6038.89
8350.95
13576.82
26807.10
69241.18
6953.22
8484.32
11900.76
19864.77
41740.27
126478.08
6027.55
7403.84
10447.93
17497.24
36748.54
111060.65
5222.58
6429.36
9084.96
15193.08
31743.79
95281.77
4393.56
5362.82
7516.86
12476.28
25881.48
77379.91
3920.37
4723.50
6543.34
10774.56
22290.92
66950.39
3384.67
3982.32
5395.75
8764.34
18119.81
55266.01
4175.06
4960.78
6724.02
11003.87
24275.91
96706.82
3760.21
4493.92
6128.01
10034.38
21889.28
85171.43
3305.81
3949.10
5387.64
8792.50
18930.74
71994.63
2746.44
3228.40
4343.20
7002.00
14888.35
56079.47
2409.96
2777.65
3667.98
5834.86
12344.71
46891.98
2035.84
2270.51
2898.51
4499.91
9481.21
36992.40
2699.60
2976.02
3676.79
5369.32
10778.86
58742.28
2397.92
2631.43
3244.88
4730.73
9391.16
49321.71
2033.12
2198.58
2673.69
3849.88
7527.32
38630.69
1605.27
1680.87
1970.63
2741.98
5232.12
26983.79
1377.16
1405.48
1593.64
2142.05
3997.17
21061.54
1154.78
1141.33
1232.52
1562.01
2791.85
15326.90
2334.56
2257.66
2397.32
2963.43
4883.71
28829.44
2003.77
1912.25
1992.87
2410.48
3884.07
22417.61
1646.95
1543.12
1563.77
1825.15
2833.32
16096.39
1284.96
1178.23
1148.84
1264.60
1827.73
10205.33
1115.37
1014.03
968.23
1023.27
1388.29
7565.61
966.80
877.70
824.45
832.07
1026.23
5228.48
1172.17
1030.64
905.49
816.21
839.51
871.67
1267.69
816.21
Combination Values
Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0
0.2
0.15
0.5
0.2
0.15
0.4
0.2
0.15
0.3
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0
0.2
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0
0.2
0.05
0.5
0.2
0.05
0.4
0.2
0.05
0.3
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0
0.2
0.025
0.5
0.2
0.025
0.4
0.2
0.025
0.3
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0
0.2
0
0.5
0.2
0
0.4
0.2
0
0.3
0.2
0
0.2
0.2
0
0.1
0.2
0
0
0.15
0.2
0.5
0.15
0.2
0.4
0.15
0.2
0.3
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.2
0
0.15
0.15
0.5
0.15
0.15
0.4
0.15
0.15
0.3
0.15
0.15
0.2
0.15
0.15
0.1
0.15
0.15
0
0.15
0.1
0.5
0.15
0.1
0.4
0.15
0.1
0.3
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0.1
0
0.15
0.05
0.5
0.15
0.05
0.4
0.15
0.05
0.3
0.15
0.05
0.2
0.15
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.05
0
0.15
0.025
0.5
0.15
0.025
0.4
0.15
0.025
0.3
0.15
0.025
0.2
0.15
0.025
0.1
0.15
0.025
0
0.15
0
0.5
0.15
0
0.4
0.15
0
0.3
0.15
0
0.2
0.15
0
0.1
0.15
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0
0.1
0.15
0.5
0.1
0.15
0.4
0.1
0.15
0.3
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0
0.1
0.05
0.5
0.1
0.05
0.4
0.1
0.05
0.3
0.1
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0
0.1
0.025
0.5
0.1
0.025
0.4
0.1
0.025
0.3
0.1
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0
0.1
0
0.5
0.1
0
0.4
0.1
0
0.3
0.1
0
0.2
0.1
0
0.1
0.1
0
0
0.05
0.2
0.5
0.05
0.2
0.4
0.05
0.2
0.3
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.2
0
0.05
0.15
0.5
0.05
0.15
0.4
0.05
0.15
0.3
0.05
0.15
0.2
0.05
0.15
0.1
0.05
0.15
0
0.05
0.1
0.5
0.05
0.1
0.4
0.05
0.1
0.3
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.1
0
0.05
0.05
0.5
0.05
0.05
0.4
0.05
0.05
0.3
0.05
0.05
0.2
0.05
0.05
0.1
0.05
0.05
0
0.05
0.025
0.5
0.05
0.025
0.4
0.05
0.025
0.3
0.05
0.025
0.2
0.05
0.025
0.1
0.05
0.025
0
0.05
0
0.5
0.05
0
0.4
0.05
0
0.3
0.05
0
0.2
0.05
0
0.1
0.05
0
0
0.025
0.2
0.5
0.025
0.2
0.4
0.025
0.2
0.3
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.2
0
0.025
0.15
0.5
0.025
0.15
0.4
0.025
0.15
0.3
0.025
0.15
0.2
0.025
0.15
0.1
0.025
0.15
0
0.025
0.1
0.5
0.025
0.1
0.4
0.025
0.1
0.3
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0.1
0
0.025
0.05
0.5
0.025
0.05
0.4
0.025
0.05
0.3
0.025
0.05
0.2
0.025
0.05
0.1
0.025
0.05
0
0.025
0.025
0.5
0.025
0.025
0.4
0.025
0.025
0.3
0.025
0.025
0.2
0.025
0.025
0.1
0.025
0.025
0
0.025
0
0.5
0.025
0
0.4
0.025
0
0.3
0.025
0
0.2
0.025
0
0.1
0.025
0
0
0
0
0.5
0
0
0.4
0
0
0.3
0
0
0.2
0
0
0.1
0
0
0
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125

Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0
0
0.2

Actual Sales Data
S. No. Month
Sales
1
200301
0
2
200302
0
3
200303
0
4
200304
6500
5
200305
7000
6
200306
0
7
200307
2500
8
200308
2500
9
200309
0
10
200310
4100
11
200311
2000
12
200312
1000
13
200401
500
14
200402
550
15
200403
5600
16
200404
1400
17
200405
10000
18
200406
50
19
200407
7450
20
200408
0
21
200409
6500
22
200410
2500
23
200411
22500
24
200412
0
25
200501
500
26
200502
26000
27
200503
10000
28
200504
0
29
200505
5000
30
200506
24500
31
200507
0
32
200508
20000
33
200509
500
34
200510
500
35
200511
7000
36
200512
23500
37
200601
1000
38
200602
18500
39
200603
2000
40
200604
18400
41
200605
42500
42
200606
15000
43
200607
5500
44
200608
17500
45
200609
15500
46
200610
17000
47
200611
27000
48
200612
3000
49
200701
28000
50
200702
11500
51
200703
58500
52
200704
41500
53
200705
52500
54
200706
12500
55
200707
5000
56
200708
1500
57
200709
40000
58
200710
51000
59
200711
30500
60
200712
27000
Calculated Figures
Level
Trend Factor
Seasonal Factors
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12

A 1-13
12207.79
348.79
0.50
3.53
1.82
2.51
3.47
1.29
0.90
1.15
0.87
1.19
1.91
0.79
0.0000
0.0000
0.1000
Month
200801
200802
200803
200804
200805
200806
200807
200808
200809
200810
200811
200812
200901
200902
200903
200904
200905
200906
200907
200908
200909
200910
200911
200912
Forecasted Figures
Sales
6243.92
45527.72
24120.37
34160.90
48469.85
18385.60
Year 2008 283040.05
13241.87
17193.28
13418.33
18650.74
30690.71
12936.75
8325.23
60293.47
31737.33
44671.95
63010.80
23766.75 Year 2009 366461.08
17025.26
21991.41
17077.88
23624.27
38696.98
16239.75

S.No.
Error Value
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
676881.70
722369.75
688465.36
707308.27
759279.62
965967.86
600335.02
610133.83
625943.65
654802.54
720921.45
943243.79
523216.16
538147.65
561106.09
600438.15
683040.40
931196.29
440241.35
457628.37
484519.92
530428.69
624402.81
890399.32
395394.31
411756.59
437467.58
481902.46
573249.69
830034.40
348010.17
360957.82
381799.12
418681.63
496208.45
718939.51
564124.73
583177.11
608756.49
645184.86
711090.83
938269.21
494565.23
518479.10
550497.35
596615.29
680001.96
944680.95
420177.85
446117.61
481735.30
535092.52
634694.41
939145.06
339078.44
362921.70
397091.63
450888.68
555079.41
868773.39
295691.63
315938.13
345665.37
393667.19
488565.03
776731.18
250862.72
265311.17
287032.84
323084.26
396631.14
628720.00
451337.42
499926.57
560721.16
637894.10
751813.15
1102183.15
383372.71
428824.56
486896.89
564545.99
690810.71
1099478.22
311272.57
351300.15
404372.61
479706.92
612026.27
1049080.56
235049.35
265610.42
307959.22
371383.43
488718.90
880759.29
195821.83
219400.24
252709.89
303689.59
400117.35
728815.63
157061.48
172311.03
194128.46
228107.61
294187.89
531657.34
281939.34
343381.02
423869.13
533272.75
711218.53
1431869.25
226352.20
278619.26
349089.84
448280.35
615743.11
1292713.76
169995.00
210455.21
266563.59
347869.51
488595.78
1055025.27
114355.61
140003.39
176387.39
230277.77
325440.58
715370.60
88122.23
105734.91
130896.24
168450.21
235577.79
520189.27
64393.37
74384.83
88663.67
110037.69
148891.68
326591.31
154089.45
196535.11
257902.64
347327.02
493692.14
1177191.66
116589.83
149339.14
197292.86
267908.47
384206.38
923403.42
80879.22
103090.54
136031.97
185026.38
266311.43
646383.60
48912.77
60765.12
78615.42
105465.96
150592.86
371538.04
35269.16
42551.71
53650.17
70476.41
99097.32
247271.57
23911.23
27456.73
32981.68
41460.20
56171.96
140942.28
2469.80
2040.24
1615.89
1269.04
1192.26
1273.80
42966.33
1192.26
Combination Values
Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0
0.2
0.15
0.5
0.2
0.15
0.4
0.2
0.15
0.3
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0
0.2
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0
0.2
0.05
0.5
0.2
0.05
0.4
0.2
0.05
0.3
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0
0.2
0.025
0.5
0.2
0.025
0.4
0.2
0.025
0.3
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0
0.2
0
0.5
0.2
0
0.4
0.2
0
0.3
0.2
0
0.2
0.2
0
0.1
0.2
0
0
0.15
0.2
0.5
0.15
0.2
0.4
0.15
0.2
0.3
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.2
0
0.15
0.15
0.5
0.15
0.15
0.4
0.15
0.15
0.3
0.15
0.15
0.2
0.15
0.15
0.1
0.15
0.15
0
0.15
0.1
0.5
0.15
0.1
0.4
0.15
0.1
0.3
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0.1
0
0.15
0.05
0.5
0.15
0.05
0.4
0.15
0.05
0.3
0.15
0.05
0.2
0.15
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.05
0
0.15
0.025
0.5
0.15
0.025
0.4
0.15
0.025
0.3
0.15
0.025
0.2
0.15
0.025
0.1
0.15
0.025
0
0.15
0
0.5
0.15
0
0.4
0.15
0
0.3
0.15
0
0.2
0.15
0
0.1
0.15
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0
0.1
0.15
0.5
0.1
0.15
0.4
0.1
0.15
0.3
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0
0.1
0.05
0.5
0.1
0.05
0.4
0.1
0.05
0.3
0.1
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0
0.1
0.025
0.5
0.1
0.025
0.4
0.1
0.025
0.3
0.1
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0
0.1
0
0.5
0.1
0
0.4
0.1
0
0.3
0.1
0
0.2
0.1
0
0.1
0.1
0
0
0.05
0.2
0.5
0.05
0.2
0.4
0.05
0.2
0.3
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.2
0
0.05
0.15
0.5
0.05
0.15
0.4
0.05
0.15
0.3
0.05
0.15
0.2
0.05
0.15
0.1
0.05
0.15
0
0.05
0.1
0.5
0.05
0.1
0.4
0.05
0.1
0.3
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.1
0
0.05
0.05
0.5
0.05
0.05
0.4
0.05
0.05
0.3
0.05
0.05
0.2
0.05
0.05
0.1
0.05
0.05
0
0.05
0.025
0.5
0.05
0.025
0.4
0.05
0.025
0.3
0.05
0.025
0.2
0.05
0.025
0.1
0.05
0.025
0
0.05
0
0.5
0.05
0
0.4
0.05
0
0.3
0.05
0
0.2
0.05
0
0.1
0.05
0
0
0.025
0.2
0.5
0.025
0.2
0.4
0.025
0.2
0.3
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.2
0
0.025
0.15
0.5
0.025
0.15
0.4
0.025
0.15
0.3
0.025
0.15
0.2
0.025
0.15
0.1
0.025
0.15
0
0.025
0.1
0.5
0.025
0.1
0.4
0.025
0.1
0.3
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0.1
0
0.025
0.05
0.5
0.025
0.05
0.4
0.025
0.05
0.3
0.025
0.05
0.2
0.025
0.05
0.1
0.025
0.05
0
0.025
0.025
0.5
0.025
0.025
0.4
0.025
0.025
0.3
0.025
0.025
0.2
0.025
0.025
0.1
0.025
0.025
0
0.025
0
0.5
0.025
0
0.4
0.025
0
0.3
0.025
0
0.2
0.025
0
0.1
0.025
0
0
0
0
0.5
0
0
0.4
0
0
0.3
0
0
0.2
0
0
0.1
0
0
0
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125

Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0
0
0.1

Actual Sales Data
S. No. Month
Sales
1
200301
0
2
200302
0
3
200303
350
4
200304
5500
5
200305
3500
6
200306
0
7
200307
2000
8
200308
3000
9
200309
0
10
200310
1100
11
200311
900
12
200312
3000
13
200401
500
14
200402
5500
15
200403
1000
16
200404
0
17
200405
7500
18
200406
4800
19
200407
15700
20
200408
0
21
200409
4500
22
200410
3500
23
200411
23000
24
200412
1000
25
200501
6100
26
200502
16000
27
200503
7500
28
200504
0
29
200505
5000
30
200506
6000
31
200507
0
32
200508
30000
33
200509
2500
34
200510
5500
35
200511
39500
36
200512
30490
37
200601
500
38
200602
500
39
200603
0
40
200604
17000
41
200605
51000
42
200606
18500
43
200607
22500
44
200608
1500
45
200609
56000
46
200610
53000
47
200611
55500
48
200612
26000
49
200701
45250
50
200702
17350
51
200703
45500
52
200704
45500
53
200705
94900
54
200706
55000
55
200707
22000
56
200708
52400
57
200709
77500
58
200710
53000
59
200711
29000
60
200712
15500
Calculated Figures
Level
Trend Factor
Seasonal Factors
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12

A 1-16
35973.80
402.44
0.91
0.85
0.83
1.25
2.42
1.13
0.89
1.21
1.59
1.25
1.66
0.83
0.0250
0.0000
0.4000
Month
200801
200802
200803
200804
200805
200806
200807
200808
200809
200810
200811
200812
200901
200902
200903
200904
200905
200906
200907
200908
200909
200910
200911
200912
Forecasted Figures
Sales
33260.44
31337.87
30881.85
46845.25
92010.71
43525.50
Year 2008 573415.24
34457.09
47357.97
62803.27
49989.71
67109.68
33835.90
37676.07
35452.74
34892.94
52864.61
103708.33
49001.02 Year 2009 644996.44
38746.84
53193.28
70463.04
56025.35
75131.62
37840.58

S.No.
Error Value
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
17004.33
16484.18
17594.86
20866.99
28070.31
45242.70
14268.32
14076.93
15285.70
18382.46
24940.02
40263.25
11970.90
11969.01
13144.40
15927.93
21669.99
34876.13
9930.70
9981.47
10988.62
13308.03
18037.49
28809.41
8908.65
8932.04
9796.46
11811.00
15931.71
25318.78
7813.36
7771.20
8447.31
10095.95
13517.93
21371.47
11007.15
11021.96
12251.23
15230.52
21832.50
40050.41
9414.68
9559.04
10736.28
13425.04
19252.93
35094.78
8049.37
8235.74
9285.11
11608.25
16570.67
29878.92
6726.04
6872.72
7710.29
9566.32
13518.42
24034.37
6002.08
6097.68
6791.39
8361.26
11726.95
20700.91
5189.51
5215.10
5738.91
6983.20
9698.54
17015.84
6335.36
6570.37
7513.31
9570.89
14272.75
30802.95
5655.95
5883.85
6722.33
8526.29
12601.03
26680.55
4972.75
5161.94
5861.17
7365.55
10741.92
22227.47
4181.12
4298.43
4812.50
5946.58
8506.06
17162.04
3705.71
3777.40
4182.31
5102.50
7202.55
14345.93
3164.48
3190.65
3482.12
4176.67
5792.63
11379.43
3579.09
3657.27
4028.10
4866.19
6860.56
17291.25
3300.53
3350.04
3647.27
4337.88
5987.89
14452.38
2957.39
2973.06
3185.13
3705.35
4966.52
11376.31
2529.82
2517.23
2645.17
2987.55
3836.96
8172.18
2288.10
2270.71
2365.53
2627.08
3277.62
6611.79
2046.39
2036.77
2111.60
2306.54
2775.68
5168.43
2796.67
2701.23
2730.90
2950.73
3590.35
8274.61
2597.03
2498.17
2501.95
2658.54
3144.00
6659.53
2373.08
2281.06
2270.88
2377.76
2724.63
5146.20
2141.31
2075.13
2073.02
2156.02
2396.80
3854.80
2037.76
1995.28
2009.19
2094.08
2299.44
3344.38
1962.53
1952.91
1992.31
2089.49
2272.68
2960.28
2650.95
2513.73
2484.76
2614.17
3460.06
3671.18
2659.52
1952.91
Combination Values
Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0
0.2
0.15
0.5
0.2
0.15
0.4
0.2
0.15
0.3
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0
0.2
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0
0.2
0.05
0.5
0.2
0.05
0.4
0.2
0.05
0.3
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0
0.2
0.025
0.5
0.2
0.025
0.4
0.2
0.025
0.3
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0
0.2
0
0.5
0.2
0
0.4
0.2
0
0.3
0.2
0
0.2
0.2
0
0.1
0.2
0
0
0.15
0.2
0.5
0.15
0.2
0.4
0.15
0.2
0.3
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.2
0
0.15
0.15
0.5
0.15
0.15
0.4
0.15
0.15
0.3
0.15
0.15
0.2
0.15
0.15
0.1
0.15
0.15
0
0.15
0.1
0.5
0.15
0.1
0.4
0.15
0.1
0.3
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0.1
0
0.15
0.05
0.5
0.15
0.05
0.4
0.15
0.05
0.3
0.15
0.05
0.2
0.15
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.05
0
0.15
0.025
0.5
0.15
0.025
0.4
0.15
0.025
0.3
0.15
0.025
0.2
0.15
0.025
0.1
0.15
0.025
0
0.15
0
0.5
0.15
0
0.4
0.15
0
0.3
0.15
0
0.2
0.15
0
0.1
0.15
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0
0.1
0.15
0.5
0.1
0.15
0.4
0.1
0.15
0.3
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0
0.1
0.05
0.5
0.1
0.05
0.4
0.1
0.05
0.3
0.1
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0
0.1
0.025
0.5
0.1
0.025
0.4
0.1
0.025
0.3
0.1
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0
0.1
0
0.5
0.1
0
0.4
0.1
0
0.3
0.1
0
0.2
0.1
0
0.1
0.1
0
0
0.05
0.2
0.5
0.05
0.2
0.4
0.05
0.2
0.3
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.2
0
0.05
0.15
0.5
0.05
0.15
0.4
0.05
0.15
0.3
0.05
0.15
0.2
0.05
0.15
0.1
0.05
0.15
0
0.05
0.1
0.5
0.05
0.1
0.4
0.05
0.1
0.3
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.1
0
0.05
0.05
0.5
0.05
0.05
0.4
0.05
0.05
0.3
0.05
0.05
0.2
0.05
0.05
0.1
0.05
0.05
0
0.05
0.025
0.5
0.05
0.025
0.4
0.05
0.025
0.3
0.05
0.025
0.2
0.05
0.025
0.1
0.05
0.025
0
0.05
0
0.5
0.05
0
0.4
0.05
0
0.3
0.05
0
0.2
0.05
0
0.1
0.05
0
0
0.025
0.2
0.5
0.025
0.2
0.4
0.025
0.2
0.3
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.2
0
0.025
0.15
0.5
0.025
0.15
0.4
0.025
0.15
0.3
0.025
0.15
0.2
0.025
0.15
0.1
0.025
0.15
0
0.025
0.1
0.5
0.025
0.1
0.4
0.025
0.1
0.3
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0.1
0
0.025
0.05
0.5
0.025
0.05
0.4
0.025
0.05
0.3
0.025
0.05
0.2
0.025
0.05
0.1
0.025
0.05
0
0.025
0.025
0.5
0.025
0.025
0.4
0.025
0.025
0.3
0.025
0.025
0.2
0.025
0.025
0.1
0.025
0.025
0
0.025
0
0.5
0.025
0
0.4
0.025
0
0.3
0.025
0
0.2
0.025
0
0.1
0.025
0
0
0
0
0.5
0
0
0.4
0
0
0.3
0
0
0.2
0
0
0.1
0
0
0
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125

Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0.025
0
0.4

Actual Sales Data
S. No. Month
Sales
1
200301
0
2
200302
0
3
200303
0
4
200304
3500
5
200305
2500
6
200306
0
7
200307
2100
8
200308
1500
9
200309
0
10
200310
5600
11
200311
1300
12
200312
2000
13
200401
500
14
200402
2500
15
200403
5600
16
200404
1250
17
200405
7150
18
200406
8950
19
200407
13950
20
200408
0
21
200409
2500
22
200410
1500
23
200411
22000
24
200412
5000
25
200501
10600
26
200502
17000
27
200503
9500
28
200504
0
29
200505
5000
30
200506
17500
31
200507
1000
32
200508
31000
33
200509
19000
34
200510
7500
35
200511
21500
36
200512
51000
37
200601
5500
38
200602
16000
39
200603
4500
40
200604
68500
41
200605
332000
42
200606
94000
43
200607
13000
44
200608
15000
45
200609
135950
46
200610
67000
47
200611
22500
48
200612
70000
49
200701
160000
50
200702
86000
51
200703
107500
52
200704
126000
53
200705
317000
54
200706
286000
55
200707
48000
56
200708
60500
57
200709
60500
58
200710
59000
59
200711
148000
60
200712
79500
Calculated Figures
208385.49
7499.95
Month 1
0.65
Month 2
0.57
Month 3
0.49
Month 4
0.88
Month 5
2.05
Month 6
1.09
Seasonal Factors
Month 7
0.51
Month 8
0.39
Month 9
0.53
Month 10
0.50
Month 11
0.75
Month 12
0.57
0.0250
0.2000
0.3000
Level
Trend Factor
A 1-19
Month
200801
200802
200803
200804
200805
200806
200807
200808
200809
200810
200811
200812
200901
200902
200903
200904
200905
200906
200907
200908
200909
200910
200911
200912
Forecasted Figures
Sales
141146.22
127835.21
113338.06
209167.79
504681.01
276457.54
Year 2008 2284248.43
133815.99
103485.47
146612.90
140745.69
218278.56
168683.99
199987.95
179338.53
157517.37
288136.47
689405.32
374651.96 Year 2009 3092467.13
179979.43
138187.95
194441.05
185444.70
285813.64
219562.76

S.No.
Error Value
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
52340.83
57380.53
67789.01
89093.31
136114.50
264357.58
46763.65
51121.57
60522.28
79966.22
122829.48
238762.77
40766.57
44395.51
52529.64
69520.58
106993.43
207825.53
34272.94
37030.25
43464.52
57100.07
87367.94
169020.05
30790.20
33030.62
38396.93
49909.03
75683.83
145762.94
27200.58
28875.59
33025.32
42094.06
62720.56
119763.26
45570.08
47660.20
54782.49
72045.68
114817.43
256059.89
40202.54
41997.82
48367.54
63829.94
101969.03
226855.50
34819.60
36238.65
41569.63
54627.14
86867.46
192095.82
29230.14
30143.46
34058.32
43923.42
68616.98
149967.67
26324.51
26943.83
30006.31
37951.45
58172.73
125811.84
23449.45
23779.61
25932.45
31786.33
47125.37
99990.69
34299.01
33906.03
37687.14
49357.44
81993.24
223549.82
30691.38
30291.04
33483.72
43458.32
71371.72
191756.60
27115.04
26617.58
29004.16
36845.16
59086.96
155347.12
23432.85
22808.78
24215.00
29489.28
45047.67
114137.37
21600.10
20951.12
21857.70
25749.72
37674.01
92294.23
19957.33
19357.53
19823.62
22359.78
30609.49
70595.14
22233.09
20684.80
21413.00
25836.03
40043.54
137583.72
21054.37
19541.28
19893.39
23223.25
34308.52
110797.32
19850.60
18458.03
18477.43
20688.79
28481.15
83420.48
18766.02
17684.09
17533.05
18752.78
23332.80
57210.79
18433.15
17621.43
17498.92
18343.27
21477.71
45517.60
18489.77
18043.35
18050.87
18641.17
20524.75
35574.92
18514.22
16946.45
16641.69
17893.93
22346.54
64302.67
18269.10
16935.28
16669.25
17651.03
20982.00
50746.58
18155.02
17191.97
17094.15
17942.26
20336.85
39009.77
18405.54
17996.91
18240.72
19141.39
20874.87
30112.87
18848.89
18794.65
19279.29
20279.90
21802.15
27141.13
19734.65
20074.78
20831.42
21962.14
23338.43
25425.19
20888.97
22086.19
24493.76
28248.22
38619.64
40553.23
28301.77
16641.69
Combination Values
Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0
0.2
0.15
0.5
0.2
0.15
0.4
0.2
0.15
0.3
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0
0.2
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0
0.2
0.05
0.5
0.2
0.05
0.4
0.2
0.05
0.3
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0
0.2
0.025
0.5
0.2
0.025
0.4
0.2
0.025
0.3
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0
0.2
0
0.5
0.2
0
0.4
0.2
0
0.3
0.2
0
0.2
0.2
0
0.1
0.2
0
0
0.15
0.2
0.5
0.15
0.2
0.4
0.15
0.2
0.3
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.2
0
0.15
0.15
0.5
0.15
0.15
0.4
0.15
0.15
0.3
0.15
0.15
0.2
0.15
0.15
0.1
0.15
0.15
0
0.15
0.1
0.5
0.15
0.1
0.4
0.15
0.1
0.3
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0.1
0
0.15
0.05
0.5
0.15
0.05
0.4
0.15
0.05
0.3
0.15
0.05
0.2
0.15
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.05
0
0.15
0.025
0.5
0.15
0.025
0.4
0.15
0.025
0.3
0.15
0.025
0.2
0.15
0.025
0.1
0.15
0.025
0
0.15
0
0.5
0.15
0
0.4
0.15
0
0.3
0.15
0
0.2
0.15
0
0.1
0.15
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0
0.1
0.15
0.5
0.1
0.15
0.4
0.1
0.15
0.3
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0
0.1
0.05
0.5
0.1
0.05
0.4
0.1
0.05
0.3
0.1
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0
0.1
0.025
0.5
0.1
0.025
0.4
0.1
0.025
0.3
0.1
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0
0.1
0
0.5
0.1
0
0.4
0.1
0
0.3
0.1
0
0.2
0.1
0
0.1
0.1
0
0
0.05
0.2
0.5
0.05
0.2
0.4
0.05
0.2
0.3
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.2
0
0.05
0.15
0.5
0.05
0.15
0.4
0.05
0.15
0.3
0.05
0.15
0.2
0.05
0.15
0.1
0.05
0.15
0
0.05
0.1
0.5
0.05
0.1
0.4
0.05
0.1
0.3
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.1
0
0.05
0.05
0.5
0.05
0.05
0.4
0.05
0.05
0.3
0.05
0.05
0.2
0.05
0.05
0.1
0.05
0.05
0
0.05
0.025
0.5
0.05
0.025
0.4
0.05
0.025
0.3
0.05
0.025
0.2
0.05
0.025
0.1
0.05
0.025
0
0.05
0
0.5
0.05
0
0.4
0.05
0
0.3
0.05
0
0.2
0.05
0
0.1
0.05
0
0
0.025
0.2
0.5
0.025
0.2
0.4
0.025
0.2
0.3
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.2
0
0.025
0.15
0.5
0.025
0.15
0.4
0.025
0.15
0.3
0.025
0.15
0.2
0.025
0.15
0.1
0.025
0.15
0
0.025
0.1
0.5
0.025
0.1
0.4
0.025
0.1
0.3
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0.1
0
0.025
0.05
0.5
0.025
0.05
0.4
0.025
0.05
0.3
0.025
0.05
0.2
0.025
0.05
0.1
0.025
0.05
0
0.025
0.025
0.5
0.025
0.025
0.4
0.025
0.025
0.3
0.025
0.025
0.2
0.025
0.025
0.1
0.025
0.025
0
0.025
0
0.5
0.025
0
0.4
0.025
0
0.3
0.025
0
0.2
0.025
0
0.1
0.025
0
0
0
0
0.5
0
0
0.4
0
0
0.3
0
0
0.2
0
0
0.1
0
0
0
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125

Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0.025
0.2
0.3

Actual Sales Data
S. No. Month
Sales
1
200301
0
2
200302
0
3
200303
0
4
200304
500
5
200305
1000
6
200306
1500
7
200307
1750
8
200308
3500
9
200309
0
10
200310
1100
11
200311
1650
12
200312
0
13
200401
500
14
200402
0
15
200403
500
16
200404
1350
17
200405
2500
18
200406
800
19
200407
11850
20
200408
1000
21
200409
1000
22
200410
7000
23
200411
18000
24
200412
0
25
200501
8500
26
200502
15000
27
200503
7500
28
200504
500
29
200505
0
30
200506
0
31
200507
0
32
200508
32000
33
200509
21000
34
200510
2500
35
200511
13000
36
200512
53000
37
200601
33500
38
200602
4500
39
200603
36000
40
200604
28000
41
200605
48000
42
200606
187000
43
200607
18000
44
200608
28000
45
200609
191000
46
200610
85500
47
200611
52500
48
200612
119000
49
200701
390500
50
200702
88000
51
200703
149000
52
200704
89500
53
200705
369000
54
200706
285500
55
200707
57000
56
200708
51500
57
200709
143000
58
200710
222500
59
200711
152500
60
200712
152000
Calculated Figures
247815.16
10196.08
Month 1
1.88
Month 2
0.69
Month 3
0.80
Month 4
0.46
Month 5
1.27
Month 6
1.38
Seasonal Factors
Month 7
0.34
Month 8
0.52
Month 9
0.90
Month 10
0.74
Month 11
0.63
Month 12
0.74
0.0250
0.1500
0.5000
Level
Trend Factor
A 1-22
Month
200801
200802
200803
200804
200805
200806
200807
200808
200809
200810
200811
200812
200901
200902
200903
200904
200905
200906
200907
200908
200909
200910
200911
200912
Forecasted Figures
Sales
486290.05
184871.94
222745.18
133934.86
378828.37
425414.56
Year 2008 3183580.95
109097.35
172304.56
306544.42
260120.09
228236.00
275193.56
716896.41
269208.30
320637.42
190717.11
533953.74
593868.09 Year 2009 4452579.41
150917.20
236308.85
416994.49
351111.09
305812.45
366154.26

S.No.
Error Value
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
66961.53
91713.52
142641.77
258088.46
608033.32
994551.68
63848.37
86625.65
133903.35
241452.07
565702.81
952804.50
59777.69
79427.41
120742.53
215082.41
497637.26
867111.46
54283.70
69366.23
101816.39
176340.74
398012.49
721418.56
50902.54
63122.39
89968.19
151954.89
335929.06
622082.81
47170.92
56198.51
76760.62
124702.64
267103.67
505288.36
53096.45
73874.66
118228.27
224882.33
578131.90
1124160.13
50391.95
68636.96
107895.16
202470.33
513768.89
1032444.61
46854.18
61698.81
94046.46
172190.32
427793.10
894026.60
42418.35
52977.55
76555.78
133879.03
320675.46
701221.51
39972.16
48117.68
66733.18
112303.22
261007.29
584554.22
37619.77
43270.67
56731.62
90106.22
199766.51
457408.82
40946.25
54930.58
85925.67
164632.61
448378.40
1139359.73
38513.12
49927.54
75406.22
140176.38
372543.09
986911.37
35711.79
44237.09
63483.52
112544.19
288075.00
799684.22
32835.11
38309.18
50921.74
83284.02
199482.60
581350.14
31639.33
35623.54
44960.78
69063.19
156230.68
464738.02
30971.59
33571.68
39827.24
56122.53
115950.62
347965.96
30071.88
34646.63
45260.22
73507.85
183309.32
767032.04
28799.66
32248.56
40114.89
60871.22
141273.10
610202.33
27775.03
30255.77
35635.25
49493.77
102865.92
450982.70
27460.18
29228.61
32569.36
40551.05
70669.93
297946.94
27903.23
29438.16
31988.77
37566.92
57987.30
227742.87
29147.75
30525.81
32453.39
36053.10
48343.90
164690.99
26268.35
27580.47
30430.77
37225.38
61861.47
341933.09
26204.27
27533.59
29925.87
34955.05
51724.87
258734.50
26568.12
28054.59
30200.65
33902.01
44347.66
183875.31
27819.95
29595.30
31709.55
34548.66
40353.98
120929.58
29093.18
31035.69
33190.14
35753.48
39878.82
95272.59
31158.96
33237.17
35422.48
37767.22
40602.10
74335.06
35215.69
38141.33
42087.63
47192.73
59445.30
61592.56
47698.47
26204.27
Combination Values
Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0
0.2
0.15
0.5
0.2
0.15
0.4
0.2
0.15
0.3
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0
0.2
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0
0.2
0.05
0.5
0.2
0.05
0.4
0.2
0.05
0.3
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0
0.2
0.025
0.5
0.2
0.025
0.4
0.2
0.025
0.3
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0
0.2
0
0.5
0.2
0
0.4
0.2
0
0.3
0.2
0
0.2
0.2
0
0.1
0.2
0
0
0.15
0.2
0.5
0.15
0.2
0.4
0.15
0.2
0.3
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.2
0
0.15
0.15
0.5
0.15
0.15
0.4
0.15
0.15
0.3
0.15
0.15
0.2
0.15
0.15
0.1
0.15
0.15
0
0.15
0.1
0.5
0.15
0.1
0.4
0.15
0.1
0.3
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0.1
0
0.15
0.05
0.5
0.15
0.05
0.4
0.15
0.05
0.3
0.15
0.05
0.2
0.15
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.05
0
0.15
0.025
0.5
0.15
0.025
0.4
0.15
0.025
0.3
0.15
0.025
0.2
0.15
0.025
0.1
0.15
0.025
0
0.15
0
0.5
0.15
0
0.4
0.15
0
0.3
0.15
0
0.2
0.15
0
0.1
0.15
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0
0.1
0.15
0.5
0.1
0.15
0.4
0.1
0.15
0.3
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0
0.1
0.05
0.5
0.1
0.05
0.4
0.1
0.05
0.3
0.1
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0
0.1
0.025
0.5
0.1
0.025
0.4
0.1
0.025
0.3
0.1
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0
0.1
0
0.5
0.1
0
0.4
0.1
0
0.3
0.1
0
0.2
0.1
0
0.1
0.1
0
0
0.05
0.2
0.5
0.05
0.2
0.4
0.05
0.2
0.3
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.2
0
0.05
0.15
0.5
0.05
0.15
0.4
0.05
0.15
0.3
0.05
0.15
0.2
0.05
0.15
0.1
0.05
0.15
0
0.05
0.1
0.5
0.05
0.1
0.4
0.05
0.1
0.3
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.1
0
0.05
0.05
0.5
0.05
0.05
0.4
0.05
0.05
0.3
0.05
0.05
0.2
0.05
0.05
0.1
0.05
0.05
0
0.05
0.025
0.5
0.05
0.025
0.4
0.05
0.025
0.3
0.05
0.025
0.2
0.05
0.025
0.1
0.05
0.025
0
0.05
0
0.5
0.05
0
0.4
0.05
0
0.3
0.05
0
0.2
0.05
0
0.1
0.05
0
0
0.025
0.2
0.5
0.025
0.2
0.4
0.025
0.2
0.3
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.2
0
0.025
0.15
0.5
0.025
0.15
0.4
0.025
0.15
0.3
0.025
0.15
0.2
0.025
0.15
0.1
0.025
0.15
0
0.025
0.1
0.5
0.025
0.1
0.4
0.025
0.1
0.3
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0.1
0
0.025
0.05
0.5
0.025
0.05
0.4
0.025
0.05
0.3
0.025
0.05
0.2
0.025
0.05
0.1
0.025
0.05
0
0.025
0.025
0.5
0.025
0.025
0.4
0.025
0.025
0.3
0.025
0.025
0.2
0.025
0.025
0.1
0.025
0.025
0
0.025
0
0.5
0.025
0
0.4
0.025
0
0.3
0.025
0
0.2
0.025
0
0.1
0.025
0
0
0
0
0.5
0
0
0.4
0
0
0.3
0
0
0.2
0
0
0.1
0
0
0
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125

Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0.025
0.15
0.5

Actual Sales Data
S. No. Month
Sales
1
200301
0
2
200302
0
3
200303
300
4
200304
500
5
200305
0
6
200306
0
7
200307
0
8
200308
0
9
200309
0
10
200310
1500
11
200311
500
12
200312
0
13
200401
0
14
200402
0
15
200403
500
16
200404
500
17
200405
500
18
200406
300
19
200407
7700
20
200408
2500
21
200409
6500
22
200410
500
23
200411
16000
24
200412
0
25
200501
1000
26
200502
10500
27
200503
0
28
200504
0
29
200505
0
30
200506
0
31
200507
500
32
200508
22500
33
200509
0
34
200510
500
35
200511
1000
36
200512
51500
37
200601
0
38
200602
1500
39
200603
6500
40
200604
3500
41
200605
500
42
200606
35500
43
200607
22000
44
200608
20000
45
200609
45000
46
200610
2500
47
200611
4500
48
200612
6000
49
200701
70500
50
200702
16500
51
200703
73000
52
200704
31500
53
200705
62500
54
200706
41500
55
200707
0
56
200708
12000
57
200709
80000
58
200710
42500
59
200711
74000
60
200712
2500
Calculated Figures
Level
Trend Factor
Seasonal Factors
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12

A 1-25
79587.21
1046.75
0.07
0.25
0.27
0.29
0.07
0.06
0.74
0.32
0.59
0.32
1.34
0.15
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125
Forecasted Figures
Month
Sales
200801
5318.13
200802 20470.54
200803 22527.84
200804 24696.38
200805
5574.26
200806
4970.96
Year 2008 393564.62
200807 64360.30
200808 28215.36
200809 52504.69
200810 28672.72
200811 122224.71
200812 14028.73
200901
6146.57
200902 23618.52
200903 25948.37
200904 28399.31
200905
6399.74
200906
5698.13 Year 2009 449721.06
200907 73661.70
200908 32244.54
200909 59914.24
200910 32672.03
200911 139076.90
200912 15941.03

S.No.
Error Value
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
293708.73
196536.70
129637.60
85809.18
63907.55
63995.36
294276.30
195956.81
127763.41
82766.34
59860.07
58770.11
273324.52
181381.09
117587.51
75438.76
53868.43
52515.30
228440.27
151158.62
97980.73
63031.45
45266.96
44473.92
197117.57
130214.23
84603.89
54826.52
39840.80
39571.63
160547.32
105824.44
69092.04
45392.48
33686.46
34052.95
371067.17
242418.38
151084.28
89797.50
57751.52
55928.88
339500.12
221564.59
137957.83
81881.04
52581.37
50810.13
291143.66
189776.34
118284.36
70460.50
45575.20
44344.22
227097.28
147670.96
92284.80
55468.34
36463.68
36086.36
190071.88
123310.32
77216.25
46756.33
31138.88
31243.55
150621.35
97354.81
61139.43
37439.20
25422.71
26012.01
381243.62
245467.72
148165.86
82372.00
47457.56
45388.37
325562.76
209550.88
126757.85
70861.50
41283.65
39887.55
262659.85
168809.98
102306.47
57526.34
33880.08
33168.41
194174.93
124295.55
75407.72
42660.54
25391.40
25306.59
158673.70
101184.54
61390.03
34864.56
20891.93
21086.73
123105.73
78037.74
47339.07
27046.85
16388.88
16836.63
258961.85
165580.97
98498.67
52616.07
27555.79
26254.84
211118.72
134750.56
80174.08
42835.73
22329.44
21287.65
162852.67
103570.46
61574.08
32872.87
16998.02
16206.16
115175.91
72745.11
43165.38
23046.27
11833.44
11313.34
92138.60
57869.70
34297.52
18354.72
9443.20
9072.97
70174.58
43726.92
25895.95
13958.84
7280.30
7065.52
141039.44
90453.05
53763.67
27976.11
13006.85
11121.61
111964.77
71625.22
42576.17
22162.27
10228.70
8649.14
83879.76
53451.44
31795.75
16618.48
7688.47
6458.94
57593.50
36489.79
21777.79
11552.38
5511.71
4665.97
45517.16
28732.61
17224.59
9294.30
4611.45
3960.41
34458.37
21666.99
13106.38
7291.73
3872.30
3407.59
3459.05
3350.09
3268.40
3237.10
3416.90
3479.44
2672.95
2672.95
Combination Values
Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0
0.2
0.15
0.5
0.2
0.15
0.4
0.2
0.15
0.3
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0
0.2
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0
0.2
0.05
0.5
0.2
0.05
0.4
0.2
0.05
0.3
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0
0.2
0.025
0.5
0.2
0.025
0.4
0.2
0.025
0.3
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0
0.2
0
0.5
0.2
0
0.4
0.2
0
0.3
0.2
0
0.2
0.2
0
0.1
0.2
0
0
0.15
0.2
0.5
0.15
0.2
0.4
0.15
0.2
0.3
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.2
0
0.15
0.15
0.5
0.15
0.15
0.4
0.15
0.15
0.3
0.15
0.15
0.2
0.15
0.15
0.1
0.15
0.15
0
0.15
0.1
0.5
0.15
0.1
0.4
0.15
0.1
0.3
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0.1
0
0.15
0.05
0.5
0.15
0.05
0.4
0.15
0.05
0.3
0.15
0.05
0.2
0.15
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.05
0
0.15
0.025
0.5
0.15
0.025
0.4
0.15
0.025
0.3
0.15
0.025
0.2
0.15
0.025
0.1
0.15
0.025
0
0.15
0
0.5
0.15
0
0.4
0.15
0
0.3
0.15
0
0.2
0.15
0
0.1
0.15
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0
0.1
0.15
0.5
0.1
0.15
0.4
0.1
0.15
0.3
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0
0.1
0.05
0.5
0.1
0.05
0.4
0.1
0.05
0.3
0.1
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0
0.1
0.025
0.5
0.1
0.025
0.4
0.1
0.025
0.3
0.1
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0
0.1
0
0.5
0.1
0
0.4
0.1
0
0.3
0.1
0
0.2
0.1
0
0.1
0.1
0
0
0.05
0.2
0.5
0.05
0.2
0.4
0.05
0.2
0.3
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.2
0
0.05
0.15
0.5
0.05
0.15
0.4
0.05
0.15
0.3
0.05
0.15
0.2
0.05
0.15
0.1
0.05
0.15
0
0.05
0.1
0.5
0.05
0.1
0.4
0.05
0.1
0.3
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.1
0
0.05
0.05
0.5
0.05
0.05
0.4
0.05
0.05
0.3
0.05
0.05
0.2
0.05
0.05
0.1
0.05
0.05
0
0.05
0.025
0.5
0.05
0.025
0.4
0.05
0.025
0.3
0.05
0.025
0.2
0.05
0.025
0.1
0.05
0.025
0
0.05
0
0.5
0.05
0
0.4
0.05
0
0.3
0.05
0
0.2
0.05
0
0.1
0.05
0
0
0.025
0.2
0.5
0.025
0.2
0.4
0.025
0.2
0.3
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.2
0
0.025
0.15
0.5
0.025
0.15
0.4
0.025
0.15
0.3
0.025
0.15
0.2
0.025
0.15
0.1
0.025
0.15
0
0.025
0.1
0.5
0.025
0.1
0.4
0.025
0.1
0.3
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0.1
0
0.025
0.05
0.5
0.025
0.05
0.4
0.025
0.05
0.3
0.025
0.05
0.2
0.025
0.05
0.1
0.025
0.05
0
0.025
0.025
0.5
0.025
0.025
0.4
0.025
0.025
0.3
0.025
0.025
0.2
0.025
0.025
0.1
0.025
0.025
0
0.025
0
0.5
0.025
0
0.4
0.025
0
0.3
0.025
0
0.2
0.025
0
0.1
0.025
0
0
0
0
0.5
0
0
0.4
0
0
0.3
0
0
0.2
0
0
0.1
0
0
0
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125

Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125

Actual Sales Data
S. No. Month
Sales
1
200301
0
2
200302
0
3
200303
0
4
200304
500
5
200305
0
6
200306
0
7
200307
1500
8
200308
100
9
200309
0
10
200310
1900
11
200311
0
12
200312
0
13
200401
500
14
200402
0
15
200403
3500
16
200404
1500
17
200405
2000
18
200406
1000
19
200407
0
20
200408
0
21
200409
8500
22
200410
3000
23
200411
3000
24
200412
0
25
200501
500
26
200502
21000
27
200503
0
28
200504
0
29
200505
0
30
200506
4500
31
200507
0
32
200508
5000
33
200509
500
34
200510
5500
35
200511
25500
36
200512
7000
37
200601
0
38
200602
4000
39
200603
3000
40
200604
6500
41
200605
11000
42
200606
31500
43
200607
5500
44
200608
11500
45
200609
16500
46
200610
17500
47
200611
4500
48
200612
5500
49
200701
71500
50
200702
29000
51
200703
26500
52
200704
1000
53
200705
22500
54
200706
20500
55
200707
0
56
200708
2500
57
200709
113500
58
200710
35000
59
200711
38000
60
200712
97000
Calculated Figures
Level
Trend Factor
Seasonal Factors
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12

A 1-28
68723.41
2000.25
0.10
0.00
0.59
0.56
0.30
0.14
0.55
0.03
1.03
0.83
0.33
0.00
0.0250
0.0500
0.0000
Month
200801
200802
200803
200804
200805
200806
200807
200808
200809
200810
200811
200812
200901
200902
200903
200904
200905
200906
200907
200908
200909
200910
200911
200912
Forecasted Figures
Sales
6922.85
0.00
44374.27
42714.47
23571.39
11413.75
Year 2008 369960.11
45115.33
2695.36
89338.89
73696.28
30117.52
0.00
9272.40
0.00
58628.22
56077.55
30758.26
14807.55 Year 2009 476992.67
58205.70
3458.97
114065.14
93633.30
38085.57
0.00

S.No.
Error Value
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
64051.72
55146.90
44895.13
32781.62
19539.92
7243.37
63196.43
54300.60
43959.66
31721.26
18363.09
6873.27
61534.31
52804.70
42518.53
30308.32
17005.75
6400.58
58249.43
49934.37
40002.93
28176.84
15302.04
5736.68
55635.58
47661.98
38094.21
26690.21
14266.04
5312.06
52142.34
44627.92
35599.61
24838.77
13093.50
4836.83
50130.58
42682.62
34802.65
25865.86
15912.56
6421.80
48774.33
41618.67
33828.05
24863.39
14852.51
6080.02
46360.93
39677.51
32171.05
23397.76
13557.87
5582.94
42238.47
36267.82
29365.39
21175.49
11916.40
4873.83
39303.78
33802.27
27370.68
19687.41
10945.49
4443.19
35677.89
30732.76
24911.79
17916.97
9887.70
3993.69
41794.69
34336.54
27103.84
19681.45
11947.37
5700.94
39262.54
32514.10
25723.95
18557.48
10971.95
5250.15
35549.60
29671.51
23545.22
16909.21
9763.61
4636.57
30358.80
25530.77
20353.46
14617.76
8308.96
3880.70
27160.09
22926.27
18345.05
13222.36
7510.82
3487.20
23583.15
19986.18
16082.67
11685.92
6700.75
3131.78
33315.78
26530.13
19829.19
13289.20
7182.59
4226.53
29065.57
23313.50
17526.47
11791.88
6359.74
3673.82
24209.04
19549.34
14804.64
10051.45
5481.02
3119.10
18898.45
15365.24
11767.10
8148.88
4612.11
2646.68
16169.64
13199.49
10197.18
7186.13
4216.35
2483.17
13477.73
11059.84
8653.29
6258.74
3874.91
2400.14
21913.82
17462.87
12822.01
8276.60
4276.96
2701.31
18268.64
14625.85
10830.88
7115.62
3837.38
2454.30
14656.85
11801.98
8853.68
5984.10
3450.13
2292.20
11224.98
9118.39
6989.28
4948.48
3152.87
2254.33
9638.44
7883.10
6141.37
4494.77
3053.65
2297.08
8182.03
6756.97
5379.37
4103.68
2998.28
2390.52
3292.48
3125.51
2998.48
2946.02
3208.54
3302.34
2492.03
2254.33
Combination Values
Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0
0.2
0.15
0.5
0.2
0.15
0.4
0.2
0.15
0.3
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0
0.2
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0
0.2
0.05
0.5
0.2
0.05
0.4
0.2
0.05
0.3
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0
0.2
0.025
0.5
0.2
0.025
0.4
0.2
0.025
0.3
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0
0.2
0
0.5
0.2
0
0.4
0.2
0
0.3
0.2
0
0.2
0.2
0
0.1
0.2
0
0
0.15
0.2
0.5
0.15
0.2
0.4
0.15
0.2
0.3
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.2
0
0.15
0.15
0.5
0.15
0.15
0.4
0.15
0.15
0.3
0.15
0.15
0.2
0.15
0.15
0.1
0.15
0.15
0
0.15
0.1
0.5
0.15
0.1
0.4
0.15
0.1
0.3
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0.1
0
0.15
0.05
0.5
0.15
0.05
0.4
0.15
0.05
0.3
0.15
0.05
0.2
0.15
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.05
0
0.15
0.025
0.5
0.15
0.025
0.4
0.15
0.025
0.3
0.15
0.025
0.2
0.15
0.025
0.1
0.15
0.025
0
0.15
0
0.5
0.15
0
0.4
0.15
0
0.3
0.15
0
0.2
0.15
0
0.1
0.15
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0
0.1
0.15
0.5
0.1
0.15
0.4
0.1
0.15
0.3
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0
0.1
0.05
0.5
0.1
0.05
0.4
0.1
0.05
0.3
0.1
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0
0.1
0.025
0.5
0.1
0.025
0.4
0.1
0.025
0.3
0.1
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0
0.1
0
0.5
0.1
0
0.4
0.1
0
0.3
0.1
0
0.2
0.1
0
0.1
0.1
0
0
0.05
0.2
0.5
0.05
0.2
0.4
0.05
0.2
0.3
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.2
0
0.05
0.15
0.5
0.05
0.15
0.4
0.05
0.15
0.3
0.05
0.15
0.2
0.05
0.15
0.1
0.05
0.15
0
0.05
0.1
0.5
0.05
0.1
0.4
0.05
0.1
0.3
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.1
0
0.05
0.05
0.5
0.05
0.05
0.4
0.05
0.05
0.3
0.05
0.05
0.2
0.05
0.05
0.1
0.05
0.05
0
0.05
0.025
0.5
0.05
0.025
0.4
0.05
0.025
0.3
0.05
0.025
0.2
0.05
0.025
0.1
0.05
0.025
0
0.05
0
0.5
0.05
0
0.4
0.05
0
0.3
0.05
0
0.2
0.05
0
0.1
0.05
0
0
0.025
0.2
0.5
0.025
0.2
0.4
0.025
0.2
0.3
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.2
0
0.025
0.15
0.5
0.025
0.15
0.4
0.025
0.15
0.3
0.025
0.15
0.2
0.025
0.15
0.1
0.025
0.15
0
0.025
0.1
0.5
0.025
0.1
0.4
0.025
0.1
0.3
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0.1
0
0.025
0.05
0.5
0.025
0.05
0.4
0.025
0.05
0.3
0.025
0.05
0.2
0.025
0.05
0.1
0.025
0.05
0
0.025
0.025
0.5
0.025
0.025
0.4
0.025
0.025
0.3
0.025
0.025
0.2
0.025
0.025
0.1
0.025
0.025
0
0.025
0
0.5
0.025
0
0.4
0.025
0
0.3
0.025
0
0.2
0.025
0
0.1
0.025
0
0
0
0
0.5
0
0
0.4
0
0
0.3
0
0
0.2
0
0
0.1
0
0
0
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125

Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0.025
0.05
0

Actual Sales Data
S. No. Month
Sales
1
200301
0
2
200302
0
3
200303
0
4
200304
12500
5
200305
0
6
200306
0
7
200307
5000
8
200308
500
9
200309
0
10
200310
1500
11
200311
10500
12
200312
0
13
200401
3500
14
200402
1500
15
200403
3000
16
200404
1000
17
200405
7000
18
200406
19000
19
200407
0
20
200408
0
21
200409
13000
22
200410
4000
23
200411
3000
24
200412
1000
25
200501
4500
26
200502
18500
27
200503
0
28
200504
5000
29
200505
9000
30
200506
7500
31
200507
0
32
200508
24500
33
200509
7500
34
200510
5000
35
200511
10000
36
200512
43500
37
200601
0
38
200602
0
39
200603
0
40
200604
12500
41
200605
7000
42
200606
5500
43
200607
0
44
200608
21000
45
200609
25000
46
200610
500
47
200611
3500
48
200612
13500
49
200701
2000
50
200702
15500
51
200703
25500
52
200704
0
53
200705
500
54
200706
25500
55
200707
44500
56
200708
5500
57
200709
1000
58
200710
14000
59
200711
2500
60
200712
0
Calculated Figures
Level
Trend Factor
Seasonal Factors
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12

A 1-31
8918.13
232.09
0.72
1.55
0.62
3.21
1.05
2.10
1.31
1.23
1.46
0.72
1.64
1.23
0.0000
0.0000
0.1000
Month
200801
200802
200803
200804
200805
200806
200807
200808
200809
200810
200811
200812
200901
200902
200903
200904
200905
200906
200907
200908
200909
200910
200911
200912
Forecasted Figures
Sales
6586.99
14563.75
5930.44
31600.11
10588.44
21639.03
Year 2008 175385.07
13813.01
13270.86
16018.16
8107.12
18844.66
14422.51
8591.89
18886.92
7648.36
40538.22
13514.42
27484.10 Year 2009 222289.08
17462.00
16701.11
20071.24
10116.11
23419.97
17854.73

S.No.
Error Value
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
13765.63
14789.18
16521.03
18996.50
22535.75
28271.16
12670.66
13702.88
15391.66
17821.16
21364.11
27246.35
11461.58
12422.13
14007.32
16339.17
19841.95
25833.53
9986.66
10771.31
12137.98
14225.16
17471.05
23188.51
9079.61
9713.21
10886.91
12729.95
15652.99
20881.25
8011.84
8436.10
9332.62
10803.07
13194.82
17558.63
13267.14
14615.66
16642.94
19429.83
23366.84
30076.03
12077.74
13325.15
15221.09
17895.67
21829.34
28853.14
10715.78
11806.00
13517.13
16016.73
19850.18
26977.80
9062.16
9897.67
11297.96
13434.99
16842.95
23388.42
8074.28
8722.63
9880.70
11700.52
14662.01
20446.75
6954.99
7368.34
8210.29
9594.01
11904.80
16524.49
12214.23
13603.43
15663.85
18563.06
22907.22
31547.60
10902.81
12136.34
14019.08
16759.83
21049.18
29953.51
9401.25
10426.83
12061.27
14527.30
18526.07
27077.42
7622.91
8339.24
9573.06
11515.27
14764.97
21903.50
6609.11
7121.29
8076.82
9629.49
12277.92
18210.13
5520.07
5802.34
6435.32
7522.78
9433.07
13850.37
9779.30
10790.47
12468.91
15106.38
19607.22
31156.59
8418.81
9257.16
10696.01
12998.45
16970.32
27267.56
6897.52
7498.14
8597.56
10405.38
13568.25
21910.93
5230.95
5536.55
6205.41
7372.77
9477.28
15245.64
4368.53
4518.97
4957.18
5776.99
7303.48
11647.53
3518.30
3525.29
3745.18
4231.11
5196.13
8123.74
7287.21
7699.93
8569.29
10106.29
12913.08
21498.22
6037.42
6295.25
6923.30
8081.48
10233.05
16968.22
4751.72
4847.92
5223.77
5986.51
7458.97
12266.15
3478.41
3427.18
3568.02
3958.21
4788.79
7732.87
2872.09
2762.44
2805.00
3034.94
3584.54
5681.59
2307.65
2157.27
2123.46
2222.28
2534.61
3880.82
1159.04
1021.79
890.47
781.32
717.93
730.10
1954.91
717.93
Combination Values
Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0
0.2
0.15
0.5
0.2
0.15
0.4
0.2
0.15
0.3
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0
0.2
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0
0.2
0.05
0.5
0.2
0.05
0.4
0.2
0.05
0.3
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0
0.2
0.025
0.5
0.2
0.025
0.4
0.2
0.025
0.3
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0
0.2
0
0.5
0.2
0
0.4
0.2
0
0.3
0.2
0
0.2
0.2
0
0.1
0.2
0
0
0.15
0.2
0.5
0.15
0.2
0.4
0.15
0.2
0.3
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.2
0
0.15
0.15
0.5
0.15
0.15
0.4
0.15
0.15
0.3
0.15
0.15
0.2
0.15
0.15
0.1
0.15
0.15
0
0.15
0.1
0.5
0.15
0.1
0.4
0.15
0.1
0.3
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0.1
0
0.15
0.05
0.5
0.15
0.05
0.4
0.15
0.05
0.3
0.15
0.05
0.2
0.15
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.05
0
0.15
0.025
0.5
0.15
0.025
0.4
0.15
0.025
0.3
0.15
0.025
0.2
0.15
0.025
0.1
0.15
0.025
0
0.15
0
0.5
0.15
0
0.4
0.15
0
0.3
0.15
0
0.2
0.15
0
0.1
0.15
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0
0.1
0.15
0.5
0.1
0.15
0.4
0.1
0.15
0.3
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0
0.1
0.05
0.5
0.1
0.05
0.4
0.1
0.05
0.3
0.1
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0
0.1
0.025
0.5
0.1
0.025
0.4
0.1
0.025
0.3
0.1
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0
0.1
0
0.5
0.1
0
0.4
0.1
0
0.3
0.1
0
0.2
0.1
0
0.1
0.1
0
0
0.05
0.2
0.5
0.05
0.2
0.4
0.05
0.2
0.3
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.2
0
0.05
0.15
0.5
0.05
0.15
0.4
0.05
0.15
0.3
0.05
0.15
0.2
0.05
0.15
0.1
0.05
0.15
0
0.05
0.1
0.5
0.05
0.1
0.4
0.05
0.1
0.3
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.1
0
0.05
0.05
0.5
0.05
0.05
0.4
0.05
0.05
0.3
0.05
0.05
0.2
0.05
0.05
0.1
0.05
0.05
0
0.05
0.025
0.5
0.05
0.025
0.4
0.05
0.025
0.3
0.05
0.025
0.2
0.05
0.025
0.1
0.05
0.025
0
0.05
0
0.5
0.05
0
0.4
0.05
0
0.3
0.05
0
0.2
0.05
0
0.1
0.05
0
0
0.025
0.2
0.5
0.025
0.2
0.4
0.025
0.2
0.3
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.2
0
0.025
0.15
0.5
0.025
0.15
0.4
0.025
0.15
0.3
0.025
0.15
0.2
0.025
0.15
0.1
0.025
0.15
0
0.025
0.1
0.5
0.025
0.1
0.4
0.025
0.1
0.3
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0.1
0
0.025
0.05
0.5
0.025
0.05
0.4
0.025
0.05
0.3
0.025
0.05
0.2
0.025
0.05
0.1
0.025
0.05
0
0.025
0.025
0.5
0.025
0.025
0.4
0.025
0.025
0.3
0.025
0.025
0.2
0.025
0.025
0.1
0.025
0.025
0
0.025
0
0.5
0.025
0
0.4
0.025
0
0.3
0.025
0
0.2
0.025
0
0.1
0.025
0
0
0
0
0.5
0
0
0.4
0
0
0.3
0
0
0.2
0
0
0.1
0
0
0
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125

Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0
0
0.1

Actual Sales Data
S. No. Month
Sales
1
200301
0
2
200302
0
3
200303
0
4
200304
12000
5
200305
8000
6
200306
7650
7
200307
8850
8
200308
13000
9
200309
9500
10
200310
6500
11
200311
32000
12
200312
0
13
200401
500
14
200402
12000
15
200403
3000
16
200404
7000
17
200405
10000
18
200406
0
19
200407
2000
20
200408
0
21
200409
45000
22
200410
8000
23
200411
34000
24
200412
0
25
200501
6500
26
200502
19500
27
200503
0
28
200504
8000
29
200505
18000
30
200506
15000
31
200507
0
32
200508
22500
33
200509
21000
34
200510
14500
35
200511
16500
36
200512
60500
37
200601
0
38
200602
0
39
200603
4000
40
200604
31000
41
200605
12000
42
200606
22500
43
200607
15000
44
200608
15500
45
200609
43000
46
200610
10500
47
200611
13500
48
200612
18000
49
200701
25500
50
200702
15500
51
200703
22000
52
200704
0
53
200705
18500
54
200706
95000
55
200707
0
56
200708
0
57
200709
15500
58
200710
15000
59
200711
19500
60
200712
0
Calculated Figures
Level
Trend Factor
Seasonal Factors
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12

A 1-34
13788.28
209.68
0.81
1.03
0.69
1.23
1.40
3.16
0.53
0.99
2.46
1.03
2.10
1.32
0.0000
0.0000
0.3000
Month
200801
200802
200803
200804
200805
200806
200807
200808
200809
200810
200811
200812
200901
200902
200903
200904
200905
200906
200907
200908
200909
200910
200911
200912
Forecasted Figures
Sales
11298.51
14595.81
9892.27
17993.61
20796.84
47479.22
Year 2008 255588.99
8032.22
15266.92
38509.78
16434.58
33748.35
21540.89
13329.43
17180.71
11618.69
21088.88
24323.78
55419.01 Year 2009 297686.66
9356.95
17750.73
44691.21
19037.77
39024.35
24865.15

S.No.
Error Value
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
11474.03
12277.45
13761.20
16358.79
21377.46
29707.98
9915.36
10628.68
12044.69
14633.42
19749.32
27975.06
8696.35
9329.13
10616.70
12990.89
17702.87
25155.78
7503.95
8015.71
9089.32
11081.06
15024.04
21295.18
6834.05
7262.33
8187.94
9916.27
13327.80
18827.98
6030.11
6351.58
7087.88
8483.37
11237.64
15784.87
9539.73
10482.86
12261.15
15599.38
22801.88
35717.86
8364.90
9195.58
10781.53
13773.44
20264.64
31775.31
7298.24
7992.71
9339.48
11887.29
17406.57
27235.28
6225.12
6764.55
7836.44
9864.72
14197.33
22060.20
5619.68
6061.34
6961.75
8672.32
12295.06
18984.70
4896.58
5217.36
5907.13
7236.36
10041.47
15360.89
7272.28
8127.25
9689.51
12752.79
20343.95
36613.33
6381.35
7088.65
8407.62
11003.78
17401.51
31360.80
5573.30
6162.16
7272.26
9437.64
14643.86
26195.37
4735.87
5188.61
6058.11
7737.99
11639.42
20479.81
4244.69
4605.98
5317.55
6696.10
9852.32
17123.34
3660.36
3911.13
4432.34
5458.56
7796.73
13327.94
4495.11
4945.59
5767.76
7409.66
11900.68
26501.72
4101.97
4516.42
5270.15
6738.93
10557.78
22892.57
3662.08
4010.59
4650.92
5879.63
8927.55
18723.45
3125.34
3367.43
3830.88
4723.41
6865.36
13787.02
2804.90
2980.66
3333.35
4023.38
5670.18
11058.08
2445.30
2552.73
2788.35
3265.04
4411.62
8260.33
3235.62
3525.17
4043.30
5000.36
7311.25
16713.34
2971.81
3205.68
3636.09
4433.53
6310.00
13837.70
2667.63
2832.19
3152.50
3756.26
5155.45
10729.30
2318.63
2407.93
2605.74
2996.20
3903.45
7538.78
2128.65
2182.86
2321.14
2606.66
3278.27
5998.71
1932.47
1957.30
2042.57
2231.87
2687.23
4565.96
1613.62
1576.07
1558.09
1567.49
1683.38
1713.75
3150.59
1558.09
Combination Values
Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0
0.2
0.15
0.5
0.2
0.15
0.4
0.2
0.15
0.3
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0
0.2
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0
0.2
0.05
0.5
0.2
0.05
0.4
0.2
0.05
0.3
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0
0.2
0.025
0.5
0.2
0.025
0.4
0.2
0.025
0.3
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0
0.2
0
0.5
0.2
0
0.4
0.2
0
0.3
0.2
0
0.2
0.2
0
0.1
0.2
0
0
0.15
0.2
0.5
0.15
0.2
0.4
0.15
0.2
0.3
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.2
0
0.15
0.15
0.5
0.15
0.15
0.4
0.15
0.15
0.3
0.15
0.15
0.2
0.15
0.15
0.1
0.15
0.15
0
0.15
0.1
0.5
0.15
0.1
0.4
0.15
0.1
0.3
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0.1
0
0.15
0.05
0.5
0.15
0.05
0.4
0.15
0.05
0.3
0.15
0.05
0.2
0.15
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.05
0
0.15
0.025
0.5
0.15
0.025
0.4
0.15
0.025
0.3
0.15
0.025
0.2
0.15
0.025
0.1
0.15
0.025
0
0.15
0
0.5
0.15
0
0.4
0.15
0
0.3
0.15
0
0.2
0.15
0
0.1
0.15
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0
0.1
0.15
0.5
0.1
0.15
0.4
0.1
0.15
0.3
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0
0.1
0.05
0.5
0.1
0.05
0.4
0.1
0.05
0.3
0.1
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0
0.1
0.025
0.5
0.1
0.025
0.4
0.1
0.025
0.3
0.1
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0
0.1
0
0.5
0.1
0
0.4
0.1
0
0.3
0.1
0
0.2
0.1
0
0.1
0.1
0
0
0.05
0.2
0.5
0.05
0.2
0.4
0.05
0.2
0.3
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.2
0
0.05
0.15
0.5
0.05
0.15
0.4
0.05
0.15
0.3
0.05
0.15
0.2
0.05
0.15
0.1
0.05
0.15
0
0.05
0.1
0.5
0.05
0.1
0.4
0.05
0.1
0.3
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.1
0
0.05
0.05
0.5
0.05
0.05
0.4
0.05
0.05
0.3
0.05
0.05
0.2
0.05
0.05
0.1
0.05
0.05
0
0.05
0.025
0.5
0.05
0.025
0.4
0.05
0.025
0.3
0.05
0.025
0.2
0.05
0.025
0.1
0.05
0.025
0
0.05
0
0.5
0.05
0
0.4
0.05
0
0.3
0.05
0
0.2
0.05
0
0.1
0.05
0
0
0.025
0.2
0.5
0.025
0.2
0.4
0.025
0.2
0.3
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.2
0
0.025
0.15
0.5
0.025
0.15
0.4
0.025
0.15
0.3
0.025
0.15
0.2
0.025
0.15
0.1
0.025
0.15
0
0.025
0.1
0.5
0.025
0.1
0.4
0.025
0.1
0.3
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0.1
0
0.025
0.05
0.5
0.025
0.05
0.4
0.025
0.05
0.3
0.025
0.05
0.2
0.025
0.05
0.1
0.025
0.05
0
0.025
0.025
0.5
0.025
0.025
0.4
0.025
0.025
0.3
0.025
0.025
0.2
0.025
0.025
0.1
0.025
0.025
0
0.025
0
0.5
0.025
0
0.4
0.025
0
0.3
0.025
0
0.2
0.025
0
0.1
0.025
0
0
0
0
0.5
0
0
0.4
0
0
0.3
0
0
0.2
0
0
0.1
0
0
0
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125

Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0
0
0.3

Actual Sales Data
S. No. Month
Sales
1
200301
10000
2
200302
0
3
200303
0
4
200304
52000
5
200305
2500
6
200306
0
7
200307
54000
8
200308
35500
9
200309
34500
10
200310
33000
11
200311
56500
12
200312
0
13
200401
0
14
200402
90000
15
200403
30500
16
200404
24500
17
200405
46500
18
200406
131000
19
200407
0
20
200408
12500
21
200409
19000
22
200410
88500
23
200411
113500
24
200412
0
25
200501
1500
26
200502
11000
27
200503
4000
28
200504
34000
29
200505
40000
30
200506
70500
31
200507
0
32
200508
50000
33
200509
57000
34
200510
56500
35
200511
71500
36
200512
95000
37
200601
1500
38
200602
45000
39
200603
2000
40
200604
48000
41
200605
950
42
200606
173000
43
200607
500
44
200608
35500
45
200609
121500
46
200610
51000
47
200611
26000
48
200612
24000
49
200701
41500
50
200702
54500
51
200703
101500
52
200704
0
53
200705
34500
54
200706
186500
55
200707
39000
56
200708
55000
57
200709
25500
58
200710
22000
59
200711
150000
60
200712
0
Calculated Figures
Level
Trend Factor
Seasonal Factors
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12

A 1-37
52515.42
781.24
0.30
1.13
0.68
0.99
0.66
2.63
0.61
0.93
1.19
1.29
2.04
0.44
0.0000
0.0000
0.2000
Forecasted Figures
Month
Sales
200801 15909.05
200802 61095.29
200803 37178.38
200804 55339.45
200805 37005.69
200806 150433.50
Year 2008 747218.04
200807 35433.43
200808 54640.88
200809 70589.55
200810 77697.18
200811 124700.22
200812 27195.41
200901 18707.44
200902 71686.69
200903 43531.79
200904 64663.62
200905 43154.47
200906 175087.77 Year 2009 867971.71
200907 41162.31
200908 63357.77
200909 81703.00
200910 89771.24
200911 143830.75
200912 31314.86

S.No.
Error Value
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
59628.49
36214.01
23403.81
16680.28
13934.24
11176.10
50113.39
31060.53
20608.98
15122.37
12920.47
10734.64
41622.01
26430.84
18068.63
13676.58
11943.30
10281.14
33915.39
22199.43
15722.26
12316.78
10991.31
9812.03
30328.18
20223.66
14622.84
11675.67
10534.82
9578.99
26937.13
18358.31
13588.12
11074.87
10106.60
9357.17
54107.77
32340.80
20632.25
14651.70
12391.42
10160.41
45294.65
27668.55
18157.59
13302.00
11507.42
9778.53
37296.64
23382.35
15851.45
12011.11
10622.91
9368.71
29999.72
19437.40
13705.24
10788.78
9758.29
8945.71
26625.92
17608.98
12709.11
10220.39
9352.27
8741.65
23469.31
15902.75
11784.71
9697.45
8980.69
8553.37
41692.99
25418.52
16646.40
12216.33
10686.95
9155.73
35018.38
21834.48
14713.34
11125.73
9917.24
8797.98
28834.18
18485.05
12888.64
10081.57
9162.60
8432.48
23191.87
15419.30
11215.72
9123.05
8464.27
8085.66
20616.28
14024.23
10459.82
8694.93
8154.88
7930.98
18238.65
12744.57
9774.22
8313.45
7883.86
7795.97
22751.16
15196.54
11027.63
8924.77
8296.83
7813.80
19497.13
13387.04
10016.95
8330.09
7847.68
7589.78
16527.19
11742.48
9106.07
7801.40
7452.98
7393.49
13897.40
10299.91
8320.13
7357.08
7129.76
7234.88
12728.99
9666.41
7981.82
7172.01
6999.90
7172.34
11668.24
9097.52
7683.71
7014.12
6893.39
7121.94
12762.53
9726.68
8010.00
7159.34
6971.99
7070.27
11524.77
9039.58
7633.48
6947.00
6817.97
6996.50
10421.11
8433.60
7307.86
6769.45
6694.10
6938.69
9461.08
7914.26
7036.31
6628.57
6602.02
6897.29
9037.54
7688.48
6921.54
6572.27
6568.21
6882.72
8652.79
7485.86
6821.01
6525.45
6542.57
6872.12
6826.41
6556.93
6381.31
6330.02
6658.42
6760.59
6731.10
6330.02
Combination Values
Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0
0.2
0.15
0.5
0.2
0.15
0.4
0.2
0.15
0.3
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0
0.2
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0
0.2
0.05
0.5
0.2
0.05
0.4
0.2
0.05
0.3
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0
0.2
0.025
0.5
0.2
0.025
0.4
0.2
0.025
0.3
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0
0.2
0
0.5
0.2
0
0.4
0.2
0
0.3
0.2
0
0.2
0.2
0
0.1
0.2
0
0
0.15
0.2
0.5
0.15
0.2
0.4
0.15
0.2
0.3
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.2
0
0.15
0.15
0.5
0.15
0.15
0.4
0.15
0.15
0.3
0.15
0.15
0.2
0.15
0.15
0.1
0.15
0.15
0
0.15
0.1
0.5
0.15
0.1
0.4
0.15
0.1
0.3
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0.1
0
0.15
0.05
0.5
0.15
0.05
0.4
0.15
0.05
0.3
0.15
0.05
0.2
0.15
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.05
0
0.15
0.025
0.5
0.15
0.025
0.4
0.15
0.025
0.3
0.15
0.025
0.2
0.15
0.025
0.1
0.15
0.025
0
0.15
0
0.5
0.15
0
0.4
0.15
0
0.3
0.15
0
0.2
0.15
0
0.1
0.15
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0
0.1
0.15
0.5
0.1
0.15
0.4
0.1
0.15
0.3
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0
0.1
0.05
0.5
0.1
0.05
0.4
0.1
0.05
0.3
0.1
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0
0.1
0.025
0.5
0.1
0.025
0.4
0.1
0.025
0.3
0.1
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0
0.1
0
0.5
0.1
0
0.4
0.1
0
0.3
0.1
0
0.2
0.1
0
0.1
0.1
0
0
0.05
0.2
0.5
0.05
0.2
0.4
0.05
0.2
0.3
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.2
0
0.05
0.15
0.5
0.05
0.15
0.4
0.05
0.15
0.3
0.05
0.15
0.2
0.05
0.15
0.1
0.05
0.15
0
0.05
0.1
0.5
0.05
0.1
0.4
0.05
0.1
0.3
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.1
0
0.05
0.05
0.5
0.05
0.05
0.4
0.05
0.05
0.3
0.05
0.05
0.2
0.05
0.05
0.1
0.05
0.05
0
0.05
0.025
0.5
0.05
0.025
0.4
0.05
0.025
0.3
0.05
0.025
0.2
0.05
0.025
0.1
0.05
0.025
0
0.05
0
0.5
0.05
0
0.4
0.05
0
0.3
0.05
0
0.2
0.05
0
0.1
0.05
0
0
0.025
0.2
0.5
0.025
0.2
0.4
0.025
0.2
0.3
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.2
0
0.025
0.15
0.5
0.025
0.15
0.4
0.025
0.15
0.3
0.025
0.15
0.2
0.025
0.15
0.1
0.025
0.15
0
0.025
0.1
0.5
0.025
0.1
0.4
0.025
0.1
0.3
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0.1
0
0.025
0.05
0.5
0.025
0.05
0.4
0.025
0.05
0.3
0.025
0.05
0.2
0.025
0.05
0.1
0.025
0.05
0
0.025
0.025
0.5
0.025
0.025
0.4
0.025
0.025
0.3
0.025
0.025
0.2
0.025
0.025
0.1
0.025
0.025
0
0.025
0
0.5
0.025
0
0.4
0.025
0
0.3
0.025
0
0.2
0.025
0
0.1
0.025
0
0
0
0
0.5
0
0
0.4
0
0
0.3
0
0
0.2
0
0
0.1
0
0
0
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125

Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0
0
0.2

Actual Sales Data
S. No. Month
Sales
1
200301
0
2
200302
0
3
200303
0
4
200304
75000
5
200305
42500
6
200306
31850
7
200307
47650
8
200308
71000
9
200309
72000
10
200310
62500
11
200311
124500
12
200312
0
13
200401
0
14
200402
126500
15
200403
56000
16
200404
62500
17
200405
73000
18
200406
370500
19
200407
0
20
200408
0
21
200409
0
22
200410
36500
23
200411
264000
24
200412
0
25
200501
5000
26
200502
10000
27
200503
27000
28
200504
87500
29
200505
104000
30
200506
244000
31
200507
0
32
200508
99500
33
200509
187500
34
200510
129500
35
200511
133000
36
200512
165000
37
200601
6500
38
200602
35000
39
200603
0
40
200604
150000
41
200605
0
42
200606
535500
43
200607
25000
44
200608
59500
45
200609
227500
46
200610
130000
47
200611
31000
48
200612
46000
49
200701
81000
50
200702
74000
51
200703
195500
52
200704
0
53
200705
65500
54
200706
254500
55
200707
90000
56
200708
254500
57
200709
6000
58
200710
90000
59
200711
227500
60
200712
36000
Calculated Figures
Level
Trend Factor
Seasonal Factors
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12

A 1-40
97339.69
1383.01
0.22
0.76
0.72
1.12
0.84
3.70
0.46
1.19
1.17
1.09
2.13
0.48
0.0000
0.0000
0.2000
Month
200801
200802
200803
200804
200805
200806
200807
200808
200809
200810
200811
200812
200901
200902
200903
200904
200905
200906
200907
200908
200909
200910
200911
200912
Forecasted Figures
Sales
21941.25
75605.70
73482.44
115321.83
87391.05
390468.73
Year 2008 1485773.08
48946.37
128533.83
128535.28
120779.24
239526.56
55240.82
25629.75
88140.03
85498.75
133926.46
101302.64
451812.81 Year 2009 1715966.60
56536.66
148211.73
147965.50
138809.88
274845.12
63287.29

S.No.
Error Value
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
412243.26
359775.82
364720.40
484193.53
1275837.73
72286.17
342633.54
302763.45
310672.44
417121.80
1109814.18
68845.34
286893.96
255040.06
262654.08
352855.89
937700.58
65983.14
239343.55
212439.45
217272.07
287917.98
752300.47
63234.58
216783.83
191629.91
194378.14
254053.66
653010.73
61648.05
194011.39
170389.80
170789.69
218906.40
549747.02
59749.24
345513.97
313659.56
331422.24
459924.90
1259819.79
60908.52
295089.30
269075.39
285029.78
395628.29
1083071.65
59262.00
252255.68
229679.44
241871.21
332034.35
896966.21
57786.57
212899.98
192181.23
199112.46
266353.08
697554.88
55960.19
193205.51
173114.99
177069.81
232129.94
593083.61
54700.38
172840.55
153389.10
154343.54
197078.68
487112.57
53108.22
249905.45
236517.25
260357.52
376174.94
1066258.61
51835.22
221528.41
208554.53
227142.84
322797.15
897642.25
51403.92
194235.30
180987.84
193587.67
267705.45
720626.89
50608.58
166104.70
152301.37
158534.69
210261.80
537191.20
49087.45
151190.01
137188.09
140305.08
180907.88
445272.97
47967.59
135523.40
121518.08
121748.53
151657.72
355623.97
46612.94
150071.43
144474.23
158301.38
221883.89
593090.76
45909.74
135882.21
129085.46
138278.59
187194.66
478349.20
45092.83
120597.84
112761.34
117520.96
152203.56
365799.13
43847.41
104130.69
95604.62
96413.41
117918.55
259442.54
42219.61
95506.13
86844.11
85979.99
101565.74
210396.07
41317.42
86709.85
78101.73
75849.81
86153.72
165405.33
40413.99
96594.12
90916.74
93655.08
116606.50
256873.10
41549.04
88071.82
81969.39
82644.52
98900.40
203553.21
40539.88
79305.18
72978.06
71904.80
82189.14
154774.69
39486.09
70441.71
64143.65
61731.01
66985.18
112013.79
38467.38
66043.68
59873.67
56978.64
60150.34
93442.92
38005.19
61720.09
55764.24
52531.97
53958.13
77089.95
37597.52
41064.68
38256.37
36061.47
34714.56
35255.96
35716.43
840084.69
34714.56
Combination Values
Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0
0.2
0.15
0.5
0.2
0.15
0.4
0.2
0.15
0.3
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0
0.2
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0
0.2
0.05
0.5
0.2
0.05
0.4
0.2
0.05
0.3
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0
0.2
0.025
0.5
0.2
0.025
0.4
0.2
0.025
0.3
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0
0.2
0
0.5
0.2
0
0.4
0.2
0
0.3
0.2
0
0.2
0.2
0
0.1
0.2
0
0
0.15
0.2
0.5
0.15
0.2
0.4
0.15
0.2
0.3
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.2
0
0.15
0.15
0.5
0.15
0.15
0.4
0.15
0.15
0.3
0.15
0.15
0.2
0.15
0.15
0.1
0.15
0.15
0
0.15
0.1
0.5
0.15
0.1
0.4
0.15
0.1
0.3
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0.1
0
0.15
0.05
0.5
0.15
0.05
0.4
0.15
0.05
0.3
0.15
0.05
0.2
0.15
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.05
0
0.15
0.025
0.5
0.15
0.025
0.4
0.15
0.025
0.3
0.15
0.025
0.2
0.15
0.025
0.1
0.15
0.025
0
0.15
0
0.5
0.15
0
0.4
0.15
0
0.3
0.15
0
0.2
0.15
0
0.1
0.15
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0
0.1
0.15
0.5
0.1
0.15
0.4
0.1
0.15
0.3
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0
0.1
0.05
0.5
0.1
0.05
0.4
0.1
0.05
0.3
0.1
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0
0.1
0.025
0.5
0.1
0.025
0.4
0.1
0.025
0.3
0.1
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0
0.1
0
0.5
0.1
0
0.4
0.1
0
0.3
0.1
0
0.2
0.1
0
0.1
0.1
0
0
0.05
0.2
0.5
0.05
0.2
0.4
0.05
0.2
0.3
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.2
0
0.05
0.15
0.5
0.05
0.15
0.4
0.05
0.15
0.3
0.05
0.15
0.2
0.05
0.15
0.1
0.05
0.15
0
0.05
0.1
0.5
0.05
0.1
0.4
0.05
0.1
0.3
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.1
0
0.05
0.05
0.5
0.05
0.05
0.4
0.05
0.05
0.3
0.05
0.05
0.2
0.05
0.05
0.1
0.05
0.05
0
0.05
0.025
0.5
0.05
0.025
0.4
0.05
0.025
0.3
0.05
0.025
0.2
0.05
0.025
0.1
0.05
0.025
0
0.05
0
0.5
0.05
0
0.4
0.05
0
0.3
0.05
0
0.2
0.05
0
0.1
0.05
0
0
0.025
0.2
0.5
0.025
0.2
0.4
0.025
0.2
0.3
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.2
0
0.025
0.15
0.5
0.025
0.15
0.4
0.025
0.15
0.3
0.025
0.15
0.2
0.025
0.15
0.1
0.025
0.15
0
0.025
0.1
0.5
0.025
0.1
0.4
0.025
0.1
0.3
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0.1
0
0.025
0.05
0.5
0.025
0.05
0.4
0.025
0.05
0.3
0.025
0.05
0.2
0.025
0.05
0.1
0.025
0.05
0
0.025
0.025
0.5
0.025
0.025
0.4
0.025
0.025
0.3
0.025
0.025
0.2
0.025
0.025
0.1
0.025
0.025
0
0.025
0
0.5
0.025
0
0.4
0.025
0
0.3
0.025
0
0.2
0.025
0
0.1
0.025
0
0
0
0
0.5
0
0
0.4
0
0
0.3
0
0
0.2
0
0
0.1
0
0
0
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125

Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0
0
0.2

Actual Sales Data
S. No. Month
Sales
1
200301
0
2
200302
0
3
200303
0
4
200304
75000
5
200305
45000
6
200306
20500
7
200307
52000
8
200308
55500
9
200309
75000
10
200310
67000
11
200311
135500
12
200312
0
13
200401
0
14
200402
160000
15
200403
85000
16
200404
5000
17
200405
105000
18
200406
379000
19
200407
0
20
200408
0
21
200409
1500
22
200410
165000
23
200411
329000
24
200412
0
25
200501
6500
26
200502
49000
27
200503
39000
28
200504
114500
29
200505
115000
30
200506
4500
31
200507
150500
32
200508
198500
33
200509
260500
34
200510
185000
35
200511
230500
36
200512
325500
37
200601
50000
38
200602
0
39
200603
199500
40
200604
135000
41
200605
169500
42
200606
549000
43
200607
35500
44
200608
145000
45
200609
248500
46
200610
398000
47
200611
55500
48
200612
123500
49
200701
103500
50
200702
161000
51
200703
447000
52
200704
0
53
200705
90500
54
200706
542500
55
200707
28000
56
200708
15500
57
200709
298500
58
200710
197500
59
200711
449000
60
200712
0
Calculated Figures
186658.32
2877.56
Month 1
0.00
Month 2
1.04
Month 3
0.53
Month 4
0.81
Month 5
1.05
Month 6
2.33
Seasonal Factors
Month 7
0.46
Month 8
0.46
Month 9
0.61
Month 10
1.34
Month 11
2.59
Month 12
0.00
0.0250
0.0000
0.0000
Level
Trend Factor
A 1-43
Month
200801
200802
200803
200804
200805
200806
200807
200808
200809
200810
200811
200812
200901
200902
200903
200904
200905
200906
200907
200908
200909
200910
200911
200912
Forecasted Figures
Sales
0.00
199784.88
103844.65
159927.82
211625.02
475049.61
Year 2008 2323658.25
94487.31
97328.61
128847.48
287730.77
565032.10
0.00
0.00
235638.47
122206.12
187795.10
247972.71
555490.47 Year 2009 2710757.34
110264.35
113357.06
149779.31
333849.54
654404.21
0.00

S.No.
Error Value
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
147570.37
150083.35
165811.32
229398.89
663337.15
139257.44
140799.62
143038.00
158146.81
218815.88
625506.63
134034.88
134073.63
135862.26
149920.72
206487.98
580194.17
128926.38
126461.25
127171.65
138726.42
187229.10
508240.15
122582.55
121923.95
121685.62
130998.96
172747.83
454197.65
118180.34
116793.19
115295.73
121532.90
154173.24
384920.10
112511.26
135359.48
137686.91
153774.33
218985.94
657516.94
122907.47
130412.86
132643.89
148306.30
211031.39
625921.62
120031.88
124810.65
126510.09
140735.44
198145.49
574266.05
116518.82
117583.13
117905.44
128675.78
175107.67
483273.97
110940.88
112994.90
112205.69
120173.49
158066.21
417082.50
106683.85
107784.77
105655.35
110117.56
137375.58
337034.78
101294.49
128013.29
130428.20
147857.26
216855.50
663630.00
111143.90
123883.18
125917.90
142091.25
206280.82
618376.42
109311.91
118335.80
119331.20
132666.25
187522.58
540819.10
106018.31
110442.60
109535.87
117864.74
157190.80
420131.63
99779.60
105435.08
103304.53
108335.54
137539.75
343620.19
95276.61
100002.73
96647.11
98138.11
116288.43
260761.05
90267.16
128426.37
129362.51
144638.31
205934.05
579627.08
104795.84
122525.45
122093.55
133612.26
183236.84
490563.70
100759.09
114673.10
112485.62
119236.12
154338.79
381703.86
94628.89
104827.34
100799.15
102280.97
121187.69
260564.18
86976.84
99465.43
94699.47
93727.87
104741.77
200770.46
83272.28
94320.65
89136.78
86173.89
90194.83
146540.57
80421.67
125625.27
121871.36
126684.32
157256.16
351246.21
93988.41
117968.77
113026.90
114457.52
134851.32
275877.67
88615.59
109469.13
103558.76
101889.26
112594.41
202613.39
83452.74
100660.29
94275.65
90248.91
92746.37
137703.80
79522.93
96473.24
90154.02
85421.95
84784.92
111078.16
78486.48
92738.24
86765.11
81774.36
78926.82
90221.37
78402.02
92951.92
87489.61
83420.33
81382.98
85507.38
87189.78
967941.24
78402.02
Combination Values
Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0
0.2
0.15
0.5
0.2
0.15
0.4
0.2
0.15
0.3
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0
0.2
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0
0.2
0.05
0.5
0.2
0.05
0.4
0.2
0.05
0.3
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0
0.2
0.025
0.5
0.2
0.025
0.4
0.2
0.025
0.3
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0
0.2
0
0.5
0.2
0
0.4
0.2
0
0.3
0.2
0
0.2
0.2
0
0.1
0.2
0
0
0.15
0.2
0.5
0.15
0.2
0.4
0.15
0.2
0.3
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.2
0
0.15
0.15
0.5
0.15
0.15
0.4
0.15
0.15
0.3
0.15
0.15
0.2
0.15
0.15
0.1
0.15
0.15
0
0.15
0.1
0.5
0.15
0.1
0.4
0.15
0.1
0.3
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0.1
0
0.15
0.05
0.5
0.15
0.05
0.4
0.15
0.05
0.3
0.15
0.05
0.2
0.15
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.05
0
0.15
0.025
0.5
0.15
0.025
0.4
0.15
0.025
0.3
0.15
0.025
0.2
0.15
0.025
0.1
0.15
0.025
0
0.15
0
0.5
0.15
0
0.4
0.15
0
0.3
0.15
0
0.2
0.15
0
0.1
0.15
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0
0.1
0.15
0.5
0.1
0.15
0.4
0.1
0.15
0.3
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0
0.1
0.05
0.5
0.1
0.05
0.4
0.1
0.05
0.3
0.1
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0
0.1
0.025
0.5
0.1
0.025
0.4
0.1
0.025
0.3
0.1
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0
0.1
0
0.5
0.1
0
0.4
0.1
0
0.3
0.1
0
0.2
0.1
0
0.1
0.1
0
0
0.05
0.2
0.5
0.05
0.2
0.4
0.05
0.2
0.3
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.2
0
0.05
0.15
0.5
0.05
0.15
0.4
0.05
0.15
0.3
0.05
0.15
0.2
0.05
0.15
0.1
0.05
0.15
0
0.05
0.1
0.5
0.05
0.1
0.4
0.05
0.1
0.3
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.1
0
0.05
0.05
0.5
0.05
0.05
0.4
0.05
0.05
0.3
0.05
0.05
0.2
0.05
0.05
0.1
0.05
0.05
0
0.05
0.025
0.5
0.05
0.025
0.4
0.05
0.025
0.3
0.05
0.025
0.2
0.05
0.025
0.1
0.05
0.025
0
0.05
0
0.5
0.05
0
0.4
0.05
0
0.3
0.05
0
0.2
0.05
0
0.1
0.05
0
0
0.025
0.2
0.5
0.025
0.2
0.4
0.025
0.2
0.3
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.2
0
0.025
0.15
0.5
0.025
0.15
0.4
0.025
0.15
0.3
0.025
0.15
0.2
0.025
0.15
0.1
0.025
0.15
0
0.025
0.1
0.5
0.025
0.1
0.4
0.025
0.1
0.3
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0.1
0
0.025
0.05
0.5
0.025
0.05
0.4
0.025
0.05
0.3
0.025
0.05
0.2
0.025
0.05
0.1
0.025
0.05
0
0.025
0.025
0.5
0.025
0.025
0.4
0.025
0.025
0.3
0.025
0.025
0.2
0.025
0.025
0.1
0.025
0.025
0
0.025
0
0.5
0.025
0
0.4
0.025
0
0.3
0.025
0
0.2
0.025
0
0.1
0.025
0
0
0
0
0.5
0
0
0.4
0
0
0.3
0
0
0.2
0
0
0.1
0
0
0
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125

Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0.025
0
0

Actual Sales Data
S. No. Month
Sales
1
200301
0
2
200302
0
3
200303
500
4
200304
5000
5
200305
2000
6
200306
0
7
200307
12500
8
200308
7000
9
200309
4000
10
200310
5500
11
200311
18500
12
200312
0
13
200401
3000
14
200402
17500
15
200403
3000
16
200404
3000
17
200405
5500
18
200406
18500
19
200407
0
20
200408
0
21
200409
11500
22
200410
12500
23
200411
21500
24
200412
0
25
200501
11500
26
200502
12000
27
200503
1000
28
200504
12500
29
200505
17000
30
200506
9000
31
200507
47500
32
200508
7000
33
200509
28000
34
200510
25000
35
200511
3500
36
200512
85000
37
200601
0
38
200602
25000
39
200603
10000
40
200604
35000
41
200605
1500
42
200606
70500
43
200607
13500
44
200608
18000
45
200609
46500
46
200610
11000
47
200611
1000
48
200612
22500
49
200701
1500
50
200702
14000
51
200703
17500
52
200704
0
53
200705
500
54
200706
64500
55
200707
1000
56
200708
27500
57
200709
8500
58
200710
20000
59
200711
95000
60
200712
0
Calculated Figures
Level
Trend Factor
Seasonal Factors
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12

A 1-46
24512.17
500.54
0.22
1.23
0.26
0.71
0.55
1.16
1.12
0.61
1.00
1.15
2.62
0.00
0.0250
0.0500
0.0000
Month
200801
200802
200803
200804
200805
200806
200807
200808
200809
200810
200811
200812
200901
200902
200903
200904
200905
200906
200907
200908
200909
200910
200911
200912
Forecasted Figures
Sales
5447.79
31408.42
6714.11
18793.00
14836.18
31853.36
Year 2008 299129.14
31475.15
17256.54
28949.00
33831.69
78563.91
0.00
6756.01
38802.77
8264.37
23050.31
18134.85
38806.79 Year 2009 362871.30
38223.26
20891.32
34941.40
40716.04
94284.17
0.00

S.No.
Error Value
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
4162.82
3662.83
3356.42
3175.04
3099.86
3069.90
4086.81
3596.83
3292.37
3109.73
3029.88
3010.03
4049.07
3546.79
3228.41
3034.15
2946.15
2929.58
4043.56
3506.97
3157.32
2937.54
2831.64
2810.60
4040.51
3483.02
3114.78
2878.76
2759.01
2733.79
4016.54
3444.50
3063.87
2815.49
2681.35
2651.41
3746.65
3420.07
3206.37
3069.01
3001.43
2997.79
3714.10
3375.02
3150.29
3006.17
2936.95
2936.16
3699.51
3334.76
3087.43
2926.87
2850.28
2843.19
3688.75
3289.90
3010.75
2823.26
2727.24
2709.77
3669.28
3256.52
2963.28
2761.76
2651.37
2628.77
3622.03
3206.41
2908.77
2699.80
2576.03
2548.75
3499.03
3249.16
3071.33
2948.69
2882.86
2906.22
3495.01
3220.70
3021.70
2884.42
2815.95
2820.87
3491.22
3187.97
2961.30
2801.03
2719.05
2706.39
3461.54
3134.39
2881.42
2694.53
2586.55
2561.33
3419.57
3089.70
2831.09
2635.33
2513.03
2483.23
3346.40
3027.96
2776.96
2583.07
2452.09
2419.27
3508.63
3223.13
2987.51
2806.43
2709.44
2673.33
3506.66
3201.62
2942.96
2737.71
2617.29
2569.72
3471.27
3154.71
2879.17
2652.68
2504.98
2449.56
3373.95
3064.85
2790.57
2557.98
2390.57
2330.80
3292.33
2999.93
2739.69
2516.70
2349.40
2290.67
3186.68
2924.29
2692.19
2492.77
2338.08
2285.21
3689.47
3331.60
2996.62
2701.94
2490.95
2394.97
3625.98
3271.24
2935.33
2635.25
2410.41
2311.82
3521.43
3182.26
2859.12
2567.65
2341.44
2245.09
3367.31
3062.56
2773.30
2512.57
2306.22
2222.04
3271.06
2993.17
2731.62
2497.61
2312.39
2240.21
3164.33
2921.32
2696.27
2498.14
2343.18
2288.20
3204.70
2978.76
2775.00
2617.06
2552.18
2575.41
2272.56
2222.04
Combination Values
Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0
0.2
0.15
0.5
0.2
0.15
0.4
0.2
0.15
0.3
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0
0.2
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0
0.2
0.05
0.5
0.2
0.05
0.4
0.2
0.05
0.3
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0
0.2
0.025
0.5
0.2
0.025
0.4
0.2
0.025
0.3
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0
0.2
0
0.5
0.2
0
0.4
0.2
0
0.3
0.2
0
0.2
0.2
0
0.1
0.2
0
0
0.15
0.2
0.5
0.15
0.2
0.4
0.15
0.2
0.3
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.2
0
0.15
0.15
0.5
0.15
0.15
0.4
0.15
0.15
0.3
0.15
0.15
0.2
0.15
0.15
0.1
0.15
0.15
0
0.15
0.1
0.5
0.15
0.1
0.4
0.15
0.1
0.3
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0.1
0
0.15
0.05
0.5
0.15
0.05
0.4
0.15
0.05
0.3
0.15
0.05
0.2
0.15
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.05
0
0.15
0.025
0.5
0.15
0.025
0.4
0.15
0.025
0.3
0.15
0.025
0.2
0.15
0.025
0.1
0.15
0.025
0
0.15
0
0.5
0.15
0
0.4
0.15
0
0.3
0.15
0
0.2
0.15
0
0.1
0.15
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0
0.1
0.15
0.5
0.1
0.15
0.4
0.1
0.15
0.3
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0
0.1
0.05
0.5
0.1
0.05
0.4
0.1
0.05
0.3
0.1
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0
0.1
0.025
0.5
0.1
0.025
0.4
0.1
0.025
0.3
0.1
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0
0.1
0
0.5
0.1
0
0.4
0.1
0
0.3
0.1
0
0.2
0.1
0
0.1
0.1
0
0
0.05
0.2
0.5
0.05
0.2
0.4
0.05
0.2
0.3
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.2
0
0.05
0.15
0.5
0.05
0.15
0.4
0.05
0.15
0.3
0.05
0.15
0.2
0.05
0.15
0.1
0.05
0.15
0
0.05
0.1
0.5
0.05
0.1
0.4
0.05
0.1
0.3
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.1
0
0.05
0.05
0.5
0.05
0.05
0.4
0.05
0.05
0.3
0.05
0.05
0.2
0.05
0.05
0.1
0.05
0.05
0
0.05
0.025
0.5
0.05
0.025
0.4
0.05
0.025
0.3
0.05
0.025
0.2
0.05
0.025
0.1
0.05
0.025
0
0.05
0
0.5
0.05
0
0.4
0.05
0
0.3
0.05
0
0.2
0.05
0
0.1
0.05
0
0
0.025
0.2
0.5
0.025
0.2
0.4
0.025
0.2
0.3
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.2
0
0.025
0.15
0.5
0.025
0.15
0.4
0.025
0.15
0.3
0.025
0.15
0.2
0.025
0.15
0.1
0.025
0.15
0
0.025
0.1
0.5
0.025
0.1
0.4
0.025
0.1
0.3
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0.1
0
0.025
0.05
0.5
0.025
0.05
0.4
0.025
0.05
0.3
0.025
0.05
0.2
0.025
0.05
0.1
0.025
0.05
0
0.025
0.025
0.5
0.025
0.025
0.4
0.025
0.025
0.3
0.025
0.025
0.2
0.025
0.025
0.1
0.025
0.025
0
0.025
0
0.5
0.025
0
0.4
0.025
0
0.3
0.025
0
0.2
0.025
0
0.1
0.025
0
0
0
0
0.5
0
0
0.4
0
0
0.3
0
0
0.2
0
0
0.1
0
0
0
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125

Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0.025
0.05
0

Actual Sales Data
S. No. Month
Sales
1
200301
5000
2
200302
0
3
200303
500
4
200304
24500
5
200305
5000
6
200306
0
7
200307
29500
8
200308
6000
9
200309
10000
10
200310
8000
11
200311
34000
12
200312
0
13
200401
3000
14
200402
22500
15
200403
10000
16
200404
9000
17
200405
3000
18
200406
0
19
200407
20000
20
200408
0
21
200409
30000
22
200410
40000
23
200411
5000
24
200412
0
25
200501
0
26
200502
61500
27
200503
7500
28
200504
3500
29
200505
4000
30
200506
45000
31
200507
43000
32
200508
14500
33
200509
32000
34
200510
23000
35
200511
34000
36
200512
106000
37
200601
0
38
200602
4000
39
200603
21000
40
200604
57500
41
200605
12500
42
200606
63000
43
200607
8500
44
200608
16000
45
200609
53500
46
200610
23500
47
200611
11000
48
200612
27000
49
200701
16000
50
200702
42500
51
200703
45500
52
200704
0
53
200705
86500
54
200706
67000
55
200707
0
56
200708
0
57
200709
28000
58
200710
22000
59
200711
24000
60
200712
0
Calculated Figures
Level
Trend Factor
Seasonal Factors
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12

A 1-49
17305.91
253.70
0.43
1.98
1.20
1.63
1.50
2.19
1.77
0.51
2.14
1.71
1.65
1.48
0.0000
0.0000
0.2000
Month
200801
200802
200803
200804
200805
200806
200807
200808
200809
200810
200811
200812
200901
200902
200903
200904
200905
200906
200907
200908
200909
200910
200911
200912
Forecasted Figures
Sales
7544.26
35292.71
21645.94
29920.39
27827.86
41239.52
Year 2008 346360.76
33753.41
9939.00
41834.43
33986.95
33248.88
30127.42
8852.24
41324.40
25293.38
34892.30
32388.90
47907.67 Year 2009 401758.75
39138.55
11503.89
48335.97
39201.36
38285.66
34634.44

S.No.
Error Value
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
8332.33
7746.13
7943.88
9370.32
15726.14
8083.57
8192.41
7578.65
7704.80
8975.63
14732.58
7704.43
7982.55
7353.02
7406.50
8503.48
13577.59
7330.48
7619.23
6999.63
6982.85
7877.20
12125.80
6925.93
7322.20
6726.68
6680.62
7461.91
11227.64
6679.68
6893.26
6344.28
6279.90
6943.90
10177.47
6374.73
7700.37
7137.40
7284.92
8496.10
13902.93
7510.48
7552.10
6982.99
7078.76
8160.93
13048.65
7186.69
7325.28
6760.91
6801.05
7728.02
11977.74
6869.56
6931.92
6396.59
6382.08
7121.84
10580.49
6498.38
6619.68
6116.67
6080.68
6716.67
9718.48
6258.04
6187.64
5737.00
5690.22
6221.09
8732.26
5958.34
7175.64
6605.30
6651.85
7577.21
11840.33
6751.91
7001.21
6442.22
6449.68
7255.20
11008.58
6536.95
6735.58
6199.31
6164.49
6825.29
9961.86
6287.86
6293.66
5804.96
5733.20
6228.43
8644.52
5941.78
5967.84
5519.66
5437.67
5848.07
7875.95
5710.31
5549.01
5158.46
5077.71
5408.74
7044.05
5432.39
6553.05
5989.76
5871.99
6343.67
8816.44
5912.88
6315.76
5779.33
5636.30
6003.38
8029.56
5726.74
5976.88
5482.54
5321.49
5582.59
7144.17
5474.70
5502.68
5074.48
4911.92
5077.28
6182.16
5149.55
5206.66
4824.06
4671.07
4797.97
5689.88
4962.85
4871.23
4544.63
4410.78
4509.38
5207.53
4766.54
5880.55
5372.85
5146.38
5263.48
6356.73
5215.01
5605.07
5136.90
4911.78
4978.85
5831.24
5025.22
5276.82
4859.70
4646.19
4674.01
5306.31
4817.41
4896.13
4543.97
4355.73
4360.02
4803.90
4601.29
4688.61
4374.78
4205.38
4205.49
4570.92
4494.95
4472.92
4201.49
4055.52
4057.36
4357.06
4393.42
4026.65
3847.54
3733.23
3710.30
4006.46
4095.95
6766.87
3710.30
Combination Values
Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0
0.2
0.15
0.5
0.2
0.15
0.4
0.2
0.15
0.3
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0
0.2
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0
0.2
0.05
0.5
0.2
0.05
0.4
0.2
0.05
0.3
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0
0.2
0.025
0.5
0.2
0.025
0.4
0.2
0.025
0.3
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0
0.2
0
0.5
0.2
0
0.4
0.2
0
0.3
0.2
0
0.2
0.2
0
0.1
0.2
0
0
0.15
0.2
0.5
0.15
0.2
0.4
0.15
0.2
0.3
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.2
0
0.15
0.15
0.5
0.15
0.15
0.4
0.15
0.15
0.3
0.15
0.15
0.2
0.15
0.15
0.1
0.15
0.15
0
0.15
0.1
0.5
0.15
0.1
0.4
0.15
0.1
0.3
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0.1
0
0.15
0.05
0.5
0.15
0.05
0.4
0.15
0.05
0.3
0.15
0.05
0.2
0.15
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.05
0
0.15
0.025
0.5
0.15
0.025
0.4
0.15
0.025
0.3
0.15
0.025
0.2
0.15
0.025
0.1
0.15
0.025
0
0.15
0
0.5
0.15
0
0.4
0.15
0
0.3
0.15
0
0.2
0.15
0
0.1
0.15
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0
0.1
0.15
0.5
0.1
0.15
0.4
0.1
0.15
0.3
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0
0.1
0.05
0.5
0.1
0.05
0.4
0.1
0.05
0.3
0.1
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0
0.1
0.025
0.5
0.1
0.025
0.4
0.1
0.025
0.3
0.1
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0
0.1
0
0.5
0.1
0
0.4
0.1
0
0.3
0.1
0
0.2
0.1
0
0.1
0.1
0
0
0.05
0.2
0.5
0.05
0.2
0.4
0.05
0.2
0.3
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.2
0
0.05
0.15
0.5
0.05
0.15
0.4
0.05
0.15
0.3
0.05
0.15
0.2
0.05
0.15
0.1
0.05
0.15
0
0.05
0.1
0.5
0.05
0.1
0.4
0.05
0.1
0.3
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.1
0
0.05
0.05
0.5
0.05
0.05
0.4
0.05
0.05
0.3
0.05
0.05
0.2
0.05
0.05
0.1
0.05
0.05
0
0.05
0.025
0.5
0.05
0.025
0.4
0.05
0.025
0.3
0.05
0.025
0.2
0.05
0.025
0.1
0.05
0.025
0
0.05
0
0.5
0.05
0
0.4
0.05
0
0.3
0.05
0
0.2
0.05
0
0.1
0.05
0
0
0.025
0.2
0.5
0.025
0.2
0.4
0.025
0.2
0.3
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.2
0
0.025
0.15
0.5
0.025
0.15
0.4
0.025
0.15
0.3
0.025
0.15
0.2
0.025
0.15
0.1
0.025
0.15
0
0.025
0.1
0.5
0.025
0.1
0.4
0.025
0.1
0.3
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0.1
0
0.025
0.05
0.5
0.025
0.05
0.4
0.025
0.05
0.3
0.025
0.05
0.2
0.025
0.05
0.1
0.025
0.05
0
0.025
0.025
0.5
0.025
0.025
0.4
0.025
0.025
0.3
0.025
0.025
0.2
0.025
0.025
0.1
0.025
0.025
0
0.025
0
0.5
0.025
0
0.4
0.025
0
0.3
0.025
0
0.2
0.025
0
0.1
0.025
0
0
0
0
0.5
0
0
0.4
0
0
0.3
0
0
0.2
0
0
0.1
0
0
0
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125

Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0
0
0.2
APPENDIX 2
Input & Output Sheet for ROP & Order Quantity Calculation Program
Actual Sales Data
S. No. Month
Sales
1
200301
0
2
200302
0
3
200303
0
4
200304
500
5
200305
0
6
200306
0
7
200307
1500
8
200308
100
9
200309
0
10
200310
1900
11
200311
0
12
200312
0
13
200401
500
14
200402
0
15
200403
3500
16
200404
1500
17
200405
2000
18
200406
1000
19
200407
0
20
200408
0
21
200409
8500
22
200410
3000
23
200411
3000
24
200412
0
25
200501
500
26
200502
21000
27
200503
0
28
200504
0
29
200505
0
30
200506
4500
31
200507
0
32
200508
5000
33
200509
500
34
200510
5500
35
200511
25500
36
200512
7000
37
200601
0
38
200602
4000
39
200603
3000
40
200604
6500
41
200605
11000
42
200606
31500
43
200607
5500
44
200608
11500
45
200609
16500
46
200610
17500
47
200611
4500
48
200612
5500
49
200701
71500
50
200702
29000
51
200703
26500
52
200704
1000
53
200705
22500
54
200706
20500
55
200707
0
56
200708
2500
57
200709
113500
58
200710
35000
59
200711
38000
60
200712
97000
Other Input Figures

Ordering Cost for Sea (INR)
Ordering Cost for Air (INR)
Holding Cost (%)
Purchasing Cost for Sea (INR)
Purchasing Cost for Air (INR)
Imported From
Lead Time for Sea (days)
SD of Lead Time for Sea (days)
Lead Time for Air (days)
SD of Lead Time for Air (days)
Ordering By
Re-order Point
Order Quantity
Order Value
Calculated Figures
1500
10
13
7
9
Brazil
133
33
43
17
Sea
222116.216
136679.708
956757.956
Level
Trend Factor
Seasonal Factors

A 2-1
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12
68723.41
2000.25
0.10
0.00
0.59
0.56
0.30
0.14
0.55
0.03
1.03
0.83
0.33
0.00
0.0250
0.0500
0.0000
Forecasted Figures
Month
Sales
200801 6922.85
200802
0.00
200803 44374.27
200804 42714.47
200805 23571.39
200806 11413.75
Year 2008 369960.11
200807 45115.33
200808 2695.36
200809 89338.89
200810 73696.28
200811 30117.52
200812
0.00
200901 9272.40
200902
0.00
200903 58628.22
200904 56077.55
200905 30758.26
200906 14807.55 Year 2009 476992.67
200907 58205.70
200908
3458.97
200909 114065.14
200910 93633.30
200911 38085.57
200912
0.00
Calculation Sheet (2) for ROP & Order Quantity Calculation Program
S.No. Error Value
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
64051.72
55146.90
44895.13
32781.62
19539.92
7243.37
63196.43
54300.60
43959.66
31721.26
18363.09
6873.27
61534.31
52804.70
42518.53
30308.32
17005.75
6400.58
58249.43
49934.37
40002.93
28176.84
15302.04
5736.68
55635.58
47661.98
38094.21
26690.21
14266.04
5312.06
52142.34
44627.92
35599.61
24838.77
13093.50
4836.83
50130.58
42682.62
34802.65
25865.86
15912.56
6421.80
48774.33
41618.67
33828.05
24863.39
14852.51
6080.02
46360.93
39677.51
32171.05
23397.76
13557.87
5582.94
42238.47
36267.82
29365.39
21175.49
11916.40
4873.83
39303.78
33802.27
27370.68
19687.41
10945.49
4443.19
35677.89
30732.76
24911.79
17916.97
9887.70
3993.69
41794.69
34336.54
27103.84
19681.45
11947.37
5700.94
39262.54
32514.10
25723.95
18557.48
10971.95
5250.15
35549.60
29671.51
23545.22
16909.21
9763.61
4636.57
30358.80
25530.77
20353.46
14617.76
8308.96
3880.70
27160.09
22926.27
18345.05
13222.36
7510.82
3487.20
23583.15
19986.18
16082.67
11685.92
6700.75
3131.78
33315.78
26530.13
19829.19
13289.20
7182.59
4226.53
29065.57
23313.50
17526.47
11791.88
6359.74
3673.82
24209.04
19549.34
14804.64
10051.45
5481.02
3119.10
18898.45
15365.24
11767.10
8148.88
4612.11
2646.68
16169.64
13199.49
10197.18
7186.13
4216.35
2483.17
13477.73
11059.84
8653.29
6258.74
3874.91
2400.14
21913.82
17462.87
12822.01
8276.60
4276.96
2701.31
18268.64
14625.85
10830.88
7115.62
3837.38
2454.30
14656.85
11801.98
8853.68
5984.10
3450.13
2292.20
11224.98
9118.39
6989.28
4948.48
3152.87
2254.33
9638.44
7883.10
6141.37
4494.77
3053.65
2297.08
8182.03
6756.97
5379.37
4103.68
2998.28
2390.52
3292.48
3125.51
2998.48
2946.02
3208.54
3302.34
2492.03
2254.33
Combination Values
Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0
0.2
0.15
0.5
0.2
0.15
0.4
0.2
0.15
0.3
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0
0.2
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0
0.2
0.05
0.5
0.2
0.05
0.4
0.2
0.05
0.3
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0
0.2
0.025
0.5
0.2
0.025
0.4
0.2
0.025
0.3
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0
0.2
0
0.5
0.2
0
0.4
0.2
0
0.3
0.2
0
0.2
0.2
0
0.1
0.2
0
0
0.15
0.2
0.5
0.15
0.2
0.4
0.15
0.2
0.3
0.15
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.2
0
0.15
0.15
0.5
0.15
0.15
0.4
0.15
0.15
0.3
0.15
0.15
0.2
0.15
0.15
0.1
0.15
0.15
0
0.15
0.1
0.5
0.15
0.1
0.4
0.15
0.1
0.3
0.15
0.1
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0.1
0
0.15
0.05
0.5
0.15
0.05
0.4
0.15
0.05
0.3
0.15
0.05
0.2
0.15
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.05
0
0.15
0.025
0.5
0.15
0.025
0.4
0.15
0.025
0.3
0.15
0.025
0.2
0.15
0.025
0.1
0.15
0.025
0
0.15
0
0.5
0.15
0
0.4
0.15
0
0.3
0.15
0
0.2
0.15
0
0.1
0.15
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0
0.1
0.15
0.5
0.1
0.15
0.4
0.1
0.15
0.3
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.1
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.15
0
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0
0.1
0.05
0.5
0.1
0.05
0.4
0.1
0.05
0.3
0.1
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0
0.1
0.025
0.5
0.1
0.025
0.4
0.1
0.025
0.3
0.1
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0
0.1
0
0.5
0.1
0
0.4
0.1
0
0.3
0.1
0
0.2
0.1
0
0.1
0.1
0
0
0.05
0.2
0.5
0.05
0.2
0.4
0.05
0.2
0.3
0.05
0.2
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.2
0
0.05
0.15
0.5
0.05
0.15
0.4
0.05
0.15
0.3
0.05
0.15
0.2
0.05
0.15
0.1
0.05
0.15
0
0.05
0.1
0.5
0.05
0.1
0.4
0.05
0.1
0.3
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.1
0
0.05
0.05
0.5
0.05
0.05
0.4
0.05
0.05
0.3
0.05
0.05
0.2
0.05
0.05
0.1
0.05
0.05
0
0.05
0.025
0.5
0.05
0.025
0.4
0.05
0.025
0.3
0.05
0.025
0.2
0.05
0.025
0.1
0.05
0.025
0
0.05
0
0.5
0.05
0
0.4
0.05
0
0.3
0.05
0
0.2
0.05
0
0.1
0.05
0
0
0.025
0.2
0.5
0.025
0.2
0.4
0.025
0.2
0.3
0.025
0.2
0.2
0.025
0.2
0.1
0.025
0.2
0
0.025
0.15
0.5
0.025
0.15
0.4
0.025
0.15
0.3
0.025
0.15
0.2
0.025
0.15
0.1
0.025
0.15
0
0.025
0.1
0.5
0.025
0.1
0.4
0.025
0.1
0.3
0.025
0.1
0.2
0.025
0.1
0.1
0.025
0.1
0
0.025
0.05
0.5
0.025
0.05
0.4
0.025
0.05
0.3
0.025
0.05
0.2
0.025
0.05
0.1
0.025
0.05
0
0.025
0.025
0.5
0.025
0.025
0.4
0.025
0.025
0.3
0.025
0.025
0.2
0.025
0.025
0.1
0.025
0.025
0
0.025
0
0.5
0.025
0
0.4
0.025
0
0.3
0.025
0
0.2
0.025
0
0.1
0.025
0
0
0
0
0.5
0
0
0.4
0
0
0.3
0
0
0.2
0
0
0.1
0
0
0
0.0125
0.0125
0.0125

Alpha
Beta
Gamma
0.025
0.05
0
Calculation Sheet (3) for ROP & Order Quantity Calculation Program
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Sales SD Av. Sales Percentage

244.62
378.79
64.58
1373.45
1916.67
71.66
4232.21
5583.33
75.80
7050.80 13876.74
50.81
19045.04 32515.15
58.57
Month
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Forecasted Sales
Sales
Cum. Sales
6922.85
6922.85
0.00
6922.85
44374.27 51297.11
42714.47 94011.58
23571.39 117582.97
11413.75 128996.72
45115.33 174112.06
2695.36 176807.42
89338.89 266146.31
73696.28 339842.59
30117.52 369960.11
0.00
369960.11
Wt. %age
Forecast
Monthly Demand
Demand SD (monthly)
Lead time (months)
SD for LT (months)
Factor for service factor
Safety Stock
Demand in LT
Demand in further LT
Economic Order Quantity
Av. Demand in LT
Max of av. & EOQ
Min. of av. & EOQ
Sea
63.41
369960.11
30830.01
19549.52
4.43
1.10
1.96
104533.25
117582.97
148563.34
34923.47
136679.71
136679.71
34923.47
Air
63.41
369960.11
30830.01
19549.52
1.43
0.57
1.96
57244.39
6922.85
44374.27
2514.78
44189.68
44189.68
2514.78
ROP
Order Quantity
222116.22
136679.71
64167.24
44189.68
A 2-3
Cost of Ordering by a Mode

Sea
Air
161374.67
832830.85
APPENDIX 3
Input & Output Sheet for ROP & Order Quantity Calculation Program
(for items with no sales history)
Input Figures
Forecasted Demand
SD of Forecasted Demand (% of av. monthly)
Ordering Cost for Sea (INR)
Ordering Cost for Air (INR)
Holding Cost (%)
Purchasing Cost for Sea (INR)
Purchasing Cost for Air (INR)
Imported From
Lead Time for Sea (days)
SD of Lead Time for Sea (days)
Lead Time for Air (days)
SD of Lead Time for Air (days)
Ordering By
Re-order Point
Order Quantity
190
50
1550
550
13
2100
2500
Brazil
139
33
26
11
Sea
126.9250745
73.36111111
A 3-1

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A

Institute of Management Technology

Conception & History

2 SAINT GOBAIN INDIA

3 GRINDWELL NORTON LIMITED

Products & Services

4.4.3 Recommending Reorder Point & Order Quantity

5 INPUTS & SOURCES OF INFORMATION

Characteristics of various Forecasting Methods

Breakdown of Saint-Gobain Sales as per sectors

Sales forecasting models with forecasts & calculations

CONCEPTION & HISTORY

develop genuine leadership in all if its businesses

The Group intends to focus its strategy on:

2008 OUTLOOK & TARGETS

modest growth in operating income at constant exchange rates

2006 Sales: 17.6 billion Euros

2006 Sales: 10.9 billion Euros

2006 Sales: 5.1 billion Euros

Production of flat glass

High Performance Materials

2006 Sales: 4.9 billion Euros

2006 Sales: 4.1 billion Euros

Glass bottles and jars

Figure 1: Breakdown of Saint Gobain Sales as per sectors

SAINT GOBAIN INDIA

Saint-Gobain Glass India Ltd. (SGGI)

Saint-Gobain Sekurit India Ltd. (SGSI)

HIGH PERFORMANCE MATERIALS

Grindwell Norton Ltd. (GNO)

Saint-Gobain Crystals & Detectors India Ltd. (SGCD)

SEPR Refractories India Ltd. (SEPR)

Saint-Gobain Weber India Ltd. (SGWI)

Saint-Gobain SEVA Engineering India Ltd. (SGSEIL)

GRINDWELL NORTON LIMITED

PRODUCTS & SERVICES

Products for Metallurgical Applications

Project Engineering Group

Projects Today, PEG resources are available from concept to commissioning,

Development of Sales Forecasting Model

What are the characteristics of the available data?

Data Pattern: ST, stationary; T, trended; S, seasonal; C, cyclical

Table 1: Characteristics of various Forecasting Methods

Monthly Sales Data for Item AOP26

Figure 2: Sales pattern of an SKU

4.4.1.2 Winters Method

4.4.1.3 Model Development

Table 2: Forecasting Model for ANS57

Table 3: Forecasting Model for ANS60

Table 4: Forecasting Model for AOP23

Table 5: Forecasting Model for AOP24

Table 6: Forecasting Model for AOP25

Table 7: Forecasting Model for AOP26

Table 8: Forecasting Model for AOP27

Table 9: Forecasting Model for AOP28

Table 10: Forecasting Model for AOP29

Table 11: Forecasting Model for AOP30

Table 12: Forecasting Model for AOP54

Table 13: Forecasting Model for AOP55

Table 14: Forecasting Model for AOP56

Table 15: Forecasting Model for AOP57

Table 16: Forecasting Model for AOP58

Table 17: Forecasting Model for AOP59