G ARIN H ART Y ANG

RESEARCH GROUP

1724 Connecticut Avenue, NW

Washington, DC 20009
Tel: (202) 234 -5570
Fax: (202) 232 -8134
www.hartresearch.com

MEMORANDUM
TO:

KENTUCKY DEMOCRATIC PARTY

FROM:

GARIN-HART-YANG RESEARCH GROUP

DATE:

JANUARY 5, 2015

RE:

KEY FINDINGS FROM DECEMBER 19-21 STATEWIDE SURVEY

The Current Political Environment in Kentucky:

Kentucky voters approach 2015 in their most optimistic frame of mind since
September 2011 (in the midst of Governor Beshears overwhelming reelection).
Currently, 43% of voters say Kentucky is heading in the right direction and 43%
say the state is off on the wrong track, which is a marked improvement from our
June 2014 survey (31% right direction, 54% wrong track) and the most optimistic
in more than four years.
One key element in Kentuckians changed outlook relates to their improved
attitudes toward the economy: 30% say Kentuckys economy/job situation has
gotten BETTER rather than WORSE (23%) over the past year. By contrast, when
we last asked this question in January 2013, the results were reversed: 35% gotten
worse, 17% gotten better.
Governor Beshear remains the most popular political figure in Kentucky by a wide
margin, eliciting feeling thermometer scores of 54% positive and 22% negative
(including 49% positive, 23% negative among independents and a respectable 33%
positive, 36% negative among registered Republicans). Other statewide figures of
note:
Rand Paul: 44% positive, 33% negative (independents: 42% positive, 24%
negative)
Mitch McConnell: 39% positive, 47% negative (independents: 35% positive,
38% negative)
Barack Obama: 31% positive, 57% negative (independents: 18% positive,
62% negative)
In addition to his positive image, Governor Beshear elicits strong job performance
marks of 56% excellent/good, 34% only fair, and 8% poor. Governor Beshear
enjoys the support of 70% of registered Democrats; but even 37% of registered
Republicans and 35% of wrong track voters give Beshear positive scores of
excellent/good.

1724 Connecticut Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20009 202-234-5570 202-232-8134 FAX www.hartresearch.com

Hart Research Associates

In fact, when we try to quantify the nature of Governor Beshears appeal, we find
that nearly three in four (71%) Kentucky voters say they like him personally, with
the majority of these respondents saying they like Beshear personally AND approve
of his policies. Importantly, Governor Beshear has bipartisan support, with nearly
two-thirds of Republicans saying they like him personally (with one third saying
they like him personally and approve of his policies).
The Outlook for the 2015 Gubernatorial Election:
Attorney General Jack Conway not surprisingly has the highest name recognition of
the major gubernatorial candidates (74% name ID), with solid ratings of 32%
positive and 17% negative. Neither Jamie Comer (34% name ID, 16% positive,
4% negative) nor Hal Heiner (31% name ID, 10% positive, 7% negative) have
achieved much of a statewide profile at this point in the campaign.
With the advantage of high name recognition, Conway holds solids leads over both
Republican candidates in hypothetical match-ups: Conway leads Heiner 51% to
30% (44% to 24% without leaners) and leads Comer 48% to 36% (41% to 31%
without leaners).

Democrats
Independents
Republicans
Men
Women

Conway
%
81
47
24
50
52

Heiner
%
6
18
61
35
25

Conway
%
85
35
14
48
47

Comer
%
6
33
70
38
34

Page 2