jmp.

com/learn rev 02/2014

Time Series Smoothing Models

Use smoothing models to generate interpretable forecasts quickly and easily.

Smoothing Models

Example: Workers.jmp (Help > Sample Data > Time Series)

1. Select Analyze > Modeling > Time Series.

2. Select a continuous variable from Select Columns, and
click Y, Time Series (continuous variables have blue
triangles).
3. Select a time and click X, Time ID (optional).
Data must be sorted by time and equally spaced. If no
time variable is used, JMP will assume equal spacing.
4. Click OK.
5. Click on the top red triangle, select Smoothing Model
and choose an appropriate method from the list (Winters
Method, in this example).
6. In the resulting dialog window, click Estimate.
JMP displays the Model Summary, Parameter Estimates
and a Forecast plot that shows the fit and forecasts from
the model.
7. To estimate an alternative smoothing model, click on the
red triangle, and choose another method (Seasonal
Exponential Smoothing in this example).
8. Click Estimate.
JMP provides a Model Comparison report, (shown below)
that compares the two methods. Click and drag the slider
bar at the bottom of the report to see all of the statistics.
In this example, the Winters Method fits the data better
than the Seasonal Exponential Smoothing model
(according to criterion such as AIC and SBC).

Tips:
The default number of forecast periods is 25. To change, enter a different value in the Time Series launch
dialog window.
To save the forecast, select Save Columns or Save Prediction Formula under the red triangle for that model.
A new table with the actual and predicted values will be generated.

Note: For more information on time series and smoothing models, search for smoothing models in the JMP
Help or in the book Specialized Models (under Help > Books).