Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Rate
S1
S2
Values
29.00
31.45
-7.79%
Rate
S1
S2
Values
5,000
25,000
-80.00%
Values
1.80
2.39
-24.69%
Depreciation
Time Period
Jan 1980 - Dec 1985
Jan 1986 - Dec 1991
Jan 1992 - Dec 2001
Jan 2002 - Dec 2006
Jan 2007 - Dec 2008
Jan 2009 - Dec 2010
Starting Value
(C$/US$)
1.16
1.41
1.18
1.60
1.18
1.23
Ending Value
(C$/US$)
1.40
1.15
1.57
1.15
1.23
1.00
Starting Value
(/)
131
108
169
Time Period
a. Jan 1999 - Aug 2001
b. Sep 2001 - June 2008
c. July 2008 - Dec 2010
Ending Value
(/)
109
166
110
Change in the
value of the yen
(percent)
20.2%
-34.9%
53.6%
Percent change = ( S1 - S2 ) ( S2 )
Source: PACIFIC Exchange Rates 2010 by Prof. Werner Antweiler, University of British Columbia,
Vancouver BC, Canada.
Values
68,000
-20.00%
100,000
85,000
-20.0%
-32.0%
-15.0%
Rate
S1
S2
Values
3.30
5.50
-40.00%
Percent change = ( S1 - S2 ) ( S2 )
The peso since that time, and we have now weathered two additional six-year dates (2000 and
2006), has been remarkable stable against all major currencies, including the dollar.
Assumptions
Opening spot rate, July 2, 1997 (Bt/$)
Closing spot rate, July 2, 1997 (Bt/$)
Calculation of percentage change:
Percentage change in the baht versus the dollar
Percent change = ( S1 - S2 ) ( S2)
Rate
S1
S2
Values
25.00
29.00
-13.79%
Date
February 1st (Ps/$)
February 28th (Ps/$)
Percent change
"Eye-balled"
Values
2.00
2.20
-9.09%
Source: 2002 by Prof. Werner Antweiler, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada. Time period shown in
diagram: Jul 1, 2000 - Jan 27, 2002.
The period immediately following the peso's devaluation was highly volatile and a period of transition. Most forecasters would view the February period
as a period in which the new exchange rate is beginning to "stabilize" in its trading.
2.20
-9.09%
2.42
Forecasting the Pan-Pacific Pyramid: Australia, Japan & The United States
Country
Australia
Japan
United States
Latest Qtr
4.3%
1.6%
1.9%
Country
Australia
Japan
United States
Year Ago
4.0%
0.9%
2.1%
Country
Australia
Japan
United States
Trade Balance
Last 12 mos
(billion $)
-13.0
98.1
-810.7
Latest
2.1%
-0.2%
2.8%
Forecast
2007e
2.4%
0.0%
2.8%
Curent Account
Last 12 mos
Forecast 07
(billion $)
(% of GDP)
-$47.0
-5.7%
$197.5
4.6%
-$793.2
-5.6%
Forecast
2008e
3.5%
1.9%
2.2%
Industrial
Production
Recent Qtr
4.6%
4.3%
1.9%
Unemployment
Rate
Latest
4.2%
3.8%
4.7%
Interest Rates
3-month
1-yr Govt
Latest
Latest
6.90%
6.23%
0.73%
1.65%
4.72%
4.54%
Current Units (per US$)
Oct 17th
1.12
117
1.00
Year Ago
1.33
119
1.00
Source: Data abstracted from The Economist, October 20, 2007, print edition. Unless otherwise noted, percentages are percentage changes over one
year. Rec Qtr = recent quarter. Values for 2007e are estimates or forecasts.
Problems 9.10-9.13 Forecasting the Pan-Pacific Pyramid: Australia, Japan & The United States
Country
Australia
Japan
United States
Latest Qtr
4.3%
1.6%
1.9%
Consumer Prices
Country
Australia
Japan
United States
Year Ago
4.0%
0.9%
2.1%
Country
Australia
Japan
United States
Trade Balance
Last 12 mos
(billion $)
-13.0
98.1
-810.7
Latest
2.1%
-0.2%
2.8%
Forecast
2007e
2.4%
0.0%
2.8%
Current Account
Last 12 mos
Forecast 07
(billion $)
(% of GDP)
-$47.0
-5.7%
$197.5
4.6%
-$793.2
-5.6%
Forecast
2008e
3.5%
1.9%
2.2%
Industrial
Production
Recent Qtr
4.6%
4.3%
1.9%
Unemployment
Rate
Latest
4.2%
3.8%
4.7%
Interest Rates
3-month
1-yr Govt Bond
Latest
Latest
6.90%
6.23%
0.73%
1.65%
4.72%
4.54%
Current Units (per US$)
Oct 17th
1.12
117
1.00
Year Ago
1.33
119
1.00
Source: Data abstracted from The Economist, October 20, 2007, print edition. Unless otherwise noted, percentages are percentage changes over one
year. Rec Qtr = recent quarter. Values for 2007e are estimates or forecasts.
10. Current spot rates. What are the current spot exchange rates for the following cross rates?
a. Japanese yen/US dollar exchange rate
b. Japanese yen/Australian dollar exchange rate
c. Australian dollar/US dollar exchange rate
= '/$
= /$ / A$/$
= A$/$
117.00
104.4643
1.1200
11. Purchasing power parity forecasts. Assuming purchasing power parity, and assuming that the forecasted change in consumer
prices is a good proxy of predicted inflation, forecast the following cross rates:
a. Japanese yen/US dollar in 1 year
b. Japanese yen/Australian dollar in 1 year
c. Australian dollar/US dollar in 1 year
113.8132
102.02
1.1156
12. International Fisher forecasts. Asssuming International Fisher applies to the coming year, forecast the following future spot
exchange rates using the government bond rates for the respective country currencies:
a. Japanese yen/US dollar in 1 year
b. Japanese yen/Australian dollar in 1 year
c. Australian dollar/US dollar in 1 year
113.77
99.96
1.1381
13. Implied real interest rates. If the nominal interest rate is the government bond rate, and the current change in consumer prices is
used as expected inflation, calculate the implied "real" rates of interest by currency.
a. Australian dollar "real" rate
b. Japanese yen "real" rate
c. US dollar "real" rate
3.74%
1.65%
1.69%
Problems 9.14-9.15 Forecasting the Pan-Pacific Pyramid: Australia, Japan & The United States
Country
Australia
Japan
United States
Latest Qtr
4.3%
1.6%
1.9%
Country
Australia
Japan
United States
Year Ago
4.0%
0.9%
2.1%
Country
Australia
Japan
United States
Trade Balance
Last 12 mos
(billion $)
-13.0
98.1
-810.7
Forecast
2007e
2.4%
0.0%
2.8%
Latest
2.1%
-0.2%
2.8%
Current Account
Last 12 mos
Forecast 07
(billion $)
(% of GDP)
-$47.0
-5.7%
$197.5
4.6%
-$793.2
-5.6%
Forecast
2008e
3.5%
1.9%
2.2%
Industrial
Production
Recent Qtr
4.6%
4.3%
1.9%
Unemployment
Rate
Latest
4.2%
3.8%
4.7%
Interest Rates
3-month
1-yr Govt Bond
Latest
Latest
6.90%
6.23%
0.73%
1.65%
4.72%
4.54%
Current Units (per US$)
Oct 17th
1.12
117
1.00
Year Ago
1.33
119
1.00
Source: Data abstracted from The Economist, October 20, 2007, print edition. Unless otherwise noted, percentages are percentage changes over one
year. Rec Qtr = recent quarter. Values for 2007e are estimates or forecasts.
14. Forward rates. Using the spot rates and three-month interest rates above, calculate the 90-day forward rates for:
a. Japanese yen/US dollar exchange rate
b. Japanese yen/Australian dollar exchange rate
c. Australian dollar/US dollar exchange rate
115.85
102.88
1.1260
Note: All interest rates need to be adjusted for a 90 day period of a 360 day year for the calculation.
15. Real economic activity and misery. Calculate the country's Misery Index (unemployment + inflation) and then use it like interest
differentials to forecast the future spot exchange rate, one year into the future.
Australia's Misery Index
Japan's Misery Index
United States's Misery Index
6.60%
3.80%
7.50%
Starting
Spot Rate
117.00
104.46
1.1200
Forecast
Spot Rate
112.9730
101.7204
1.1106