Stephen Marrin

Course Title: Improving Intelligence Analysis

Course Syllabus 2010
Description: In this course, you will learn about intelligence analysis by examining its
purpose, history, methods, processes, context, existing challenges, and recommendations
for improvement. Specifically, you will learn about: debates within the intelligence world
over such things as intelligence analysis as a science or art, and intelligence analysts as
methodologists or artists; issues related to the intersection of analysis and policy, analysis
and collection, and denial and deception; the parallels between intelligence analysis and
similar functions in other fields, including weather forecasting and medical diagnosis;
whether or not intelligence analysis is a profession, andif it isnthow it can become
more like one; and much more.
Required Texts:
Roger George and James Bruce (Eds). Analyzing Intelligence: Origins, Obstacles, and
Innovations. Georgetown University Press. Washington DC. 2008.
Richard Russell. Sharpening Strategic Intelligence. Cambridge University Press.
2007.
Week 1: Introductions and Overview
Week 2: Learning from Intelligence Analysis History
Ford. US Governments Experiences with Intelligence Analysis. 1996. 34-53.
(G&B) KerrThe Track Record: CIA Analysis from 1950 to 2000. 35-54.
(Note: Read Russell Acknowledgements (ix-x) but only skim Russell Ch. 1: Strategic
Intelligence and American Statecraft. 1-28.)
Russell Ch. 2-4: Debunking Cold War Myths; Stumbling After the Cold War;
Blundering in the War on Terrorism. 29-94.
Betts. Why Intelligence Failures Are Inevitable. World Politics. 1978. 61-89.
Marrin. Preventing Intelligence Failures by Learning from the Past. IJIC 17/4. 2004.
655-72.
Greenberg. Intelligence of the Past: Intelligence for the Future. Strategic Intelligence.
2007 169-178
Week 3: Describing Analytic Methods and Processes (Subtitled Actually Doing
Intelligence Analysis Or What Are We Talking About, Anyway?)
Heuer. Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. CIA/CSI. 2000. (the authors preface,
foreword by Doug MacEachin, and Intro by Jack Davis; 1-30, 111-172).
Marrin. Homeland Security and the Analysis of Foreign Intelligence. Markle
Foundation Task Force Background Paper. 2002. 6-12.
Johnston. Intro, Ch 1-2, 8. Analytic Culture in the US IC. 2005. xiiii-xx, 1-29, 97-106
MacEachin. The Tradecraft of Analysis. US Intelligence at the Crossroads. 1995. 6385.
Watanabe. Fifteen Axioms for Intelligence Analysts. CIA/Studies. 1997. 45-47.
1

Selections from CIAs Compendium of Analytic Tradecraft Notes. 1-41.

CIA Tradecraft Review. Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving IA. 1-42.
ODNI ICD 203: Analytic Standards. 2007. 1-5.

Week 4: Is Intelligence Analysis an Art or a Science?

Folker. The Art or Science Debate in Intelligence Analysis in Theater Joint
Intelligence Centers: An Experiment in Applying Structured Methods. JMIC. 2000.
6-15.
Random. Intelligence as a Science. CIA/Studies. (1957) 75-79.
Heuer. Adapting Academic Methods and Models to Governmental Needs.
Quantitative Approaches to Political Intelligence: The CIA Experience. 1978. 1-10.
Ben-Israel. "Philosophy and Methodology of Intelligence: The Logic of Estimate
Process." Intelligence and National Security 4, no. 4 (Oct. 1989): (660-718).
Johnston. A Taxonomy of Intelligence Variables Analytic Culture in the US IC 2005.
33-44.
Brooks and the Art of Intelligence Analysis (3 articles from 2003 to 2005). 1-8.
Collier. A Pragmatic Approach to Developing Intelligence Analysts. DIJ. 2005. 1735.
Marrin. Intelligence Analysis: Structured Methods or Intuition? AIJ. 25/1. (2007).
7-16.
How Does this Art/Science Debate Affect Evaluation of Analysis?
Wheaton and Chido. Evaluating Intelligence. Competitive Intelligence Magazine.
2007. 19-23.
Russell. The Subjectivity of Intelligence Analysis and Implications for the US
National Security Strategy. SAIS Review. (2004). 147-162.
Lowenthal. Towards a Reasonable Standard for Analysis INS 23/3. 2008. 303-315.
Week 5: How Much Does Analytic Knowledge/Expertise Matter?
Heuer. Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. Tools for Thinking. 31-109.
Russell Ch. 6: Analysts Who Are Not Experts. 119-148.
Stewart. What is a Generalist?. CIAs Studies in Intelligence. 1958. 1-5.
Garst & Gross. On Becoming an Intelligence Analyst. Defense Intelligence Jrl. 1997.
47-58.
Betts Ch3 Theory Traps: Expertise as an Enemy. Enemies of Intelligence 2007 53-65.
Marrin CIAs Kent School-Improving Training for New Analysts IJIC 2003 609-637.
Miller. Improving All-Source IA: Elevate Knowledge. IJIC 21/2. 2008. 337-354.
Marrin Adding Value to the Intelligence Product. Handbook of Intelligence Studies
2006 199-210.
Week 6: Doing Analysis in Teams: Strengths and Weaknesses
Johnston. Integrating Methodologists into Teams of Experts. 61-73. .
Heuer. Small Group Processes for Intelligence Analysis. Working paper. 1-38.
2

Hackman and OConnor. Team Approaches to Intelligence Analysis. 2008. 2-26.

More readings on analytic teams TBD

Week 7: The Policy-Analyst Relationship: Overview and Problems

Kent: Producers and Consumers of Intelligence. Strategic Intelligence . 1949. 180206.
Hilsman. Intelligence and Policy-Making in Foreign Affairs. World Politics. 1953.
1-45.
Intelligence and Policy: The Evolving Relationship. CIA. 2004. 1-17.
(G&B) McLaughlin. Serving the National Policymaker. 71-81.
(G&B) Treverton. IA: Between Politicization and Irrelevance. 91-104.
Immerman. Intelligence and Strategy. Diplomatic History. 2008. 1-23.
Week 8: The Policy-Analyst Relationship, Part 2: Possible Solutions
National Estimates: An Assessment of the Product and the Process. CIA. 1977. 23-50
Gates. The CIA and American Foreign Policy. Foreign Affairs 1987-88. 66/2. 215-30.
Blackwill and Davis. Policymakers Perspective on IA. CIA/Studies. 1995. 1-12.
Davis. Paul Wolfowitz on Intelligence Policy-Relations. CIA/Studies (1996). 3542.
Davis. IA & Policymaking: Views of Ambassador Cohen. CIA/Studies. 1995. 1-7.
(G&B) Steinberg The Policymakers Perspective-Transparency and Partnership 82-90
Peterson. The Challenge for the Political Analyst. CIA/Studies. 1-6.
Armstrong. Ways to Make Analysis Relevant but Not Prescriptive CIA/Studies 2002.
Murphy & Smith. Making IA Responsive to Policy Concerns Studies. 1973. 1-6.
Gries. New Links between Intelligence and Policy. CIA/Studies. 34/2. 1990. 1-6.
Marrin. At Arms Length or At the Elbow? IJIC. 20/3. 2007. 401414.
Week 9: Enduring Challenges
(G&B) Bruce. The Missing Link: The AnalystCollector Relationship. 191-210.
Russell Ch. 5: Spies Who Do Not Deliver. 95-118.
(G&B) Bruce and Bennett. Foreign D&D: Analytical Imperatives. 122-137.
(G&B) Bruce. Making Analysis More Reliable: Why Epist. Matters to Intelligence
171-190.
(G&B) Davis. Why Bad Things Happen to Good Analysts. 157-170.
(G&B) George. The Art of Strategy and Intelligence. 107-121.
Gates. Guarding Against Politicization. Studies in Intelligence. 1992. 5-13.
(G&B) Thomas. US Military Intelligence Analysis: Old and New Challenges. 138154.

Week 10: Diagnosis and Prescription

3

Marrin & Clemente. Improving Intelligence Analysis by Looking to the Medical

Profession. IJIC. (2005) 707729.
Groopman. How Doctors Think. 2007. Introduction and Ch6: The Uncertainty of the
Expert. (1-26; 132-155)
Converse & Pherson. Intelligence and Medicine: Parallel Cognitive Traps. Pherson
Associates. 2009. 1-6.
Marrin & Clemente. Modeling an Intelligence Analysis Profession on Medicine.
IJIC 19/4. (Winter 2006-2007). 642-665.
(G&B) Fisher & JohnstonIs Intelligence Analysis a Discipline? 55-68.
Rieber & Thomason, Creation of a National Institute for Analytic Methods.
CIA/Studies. 49/4: 71-77..
Kerbel. Lost for Words: The Intelligence Communitys Struggle to Find its Voice.
Parameters. 2008. 102-112.

Week 11: Looking to the Future and Prospects for Reform

Johnston. Ch9: Recommendations. Analytic Culture in the US IC. 2005. 107-116.
Future of Intelligence Analysis Final Report. University of Md. 2006. 1-28. (also
read/skim appendices)
(G&B) Gannon. Managing Analysis in the Information Age. 213-225.
(G&B) Lowenthal Intelligence in Transition-Analysis after September 11 and Iraq.
226-237.
(G&B) Medina. The New Analysis. 238-248.
(G&B) Heuer. Computer-Aided Analysis of Competing Hypotheses. 251-265.
Smith. Predictive Network-Centric Intelligence. Submission for the Galileo Essay
Contest Sponsored by the Director of National Intelligence. 2006. 1-15.
Russell Ch. 7: Facing Future Strategic Intelligence Challenges. 149-169.
Tucker: The Cultural Revolution in Intelligence. Washington Quarterly. 2008. 47-61