You are on page 1of 88

JOURNAL OF THE INSTITUTION OF ENGINEERS, SRI LANKA

Vol. XXXXIV, No. 02, April 2011


ISSN 1800-1122

ENGINEER

CONTENTS
Vol.: XXXXIV, No. 02, April 2011

JOURNAL OF THE INSTITUTION OF ENGINEERS, SRI LANKA

ISSN 1800-1122

EDITORIAL BOARD

From the Editor

Eng. (Prof.) A. K. W. Jayawardane


Eng. Priyal De Silva
Eng. W. T. R. De Silva
Eng. (Prof.) K. P. P. Pathirana - Editor Transactions
Eng. (Prof.) T. M. Pallewatta - Editor ENGINEER
Eng. (Dr.) D. A. R. Dolage
Eng. (Miss.) Arundathi Wimalasuriya
Eng. M. L. Weerasinghe
- Editor SLEN
Eng. (Dr.) K. S. Wanniarachchi
Eng. (Prof.) S. S. L. Hettiarachchi

SECTION I

The Institution of Engineers, Sri Lanka


120/15, Wijerama Mawatha,
Colombo - 00700
Sri Lanka.
Telephone: 94-11-2698426, 2685490, 2699210
Fax: 94-11-2699202
E-mail: iesl@slt.lk
E-mail (Publications): ed@sltnet.lk
Website: http://www.iesl.lk
The statements made or opinions expressed in the
(1*,1((5 GR QRW QHFHVVDULO\ UHHFW WKH YLHZV
of the Council or a Committee of the Institution of
Engineers Sri Lanka, unless expressly stated.

III

Development of an Economical High


Early Strength Concrete mix for paving of
Provincial Roads in Sri Lanka
by: Eng. (Dr.) W. K. Mampearachchi, J. V.
Kosgolla and Eng. (Prof.) S. M. A. Nanayakkara

01

Use of Rice Husk Ash Blended Cement


to Produce Cement Sand Blocks: Optimal
Level of Cement Replacement for
Compressive Strength
by: Eng. (Dr.) D. A. R. Dolage, K. Mylvaganam,
P. Mayoorathan, and S. Inparatnam

11

Laboratory and Field Investigations of


Generator Stator Insulations
by: Eng. (Prof.) M. A. R. M. Fernando and
Eng. G. A. Jayantha

21

Assessment of Nearshore Wave Climate off


the Southern Coast of Sri Lanka
by: Eng. (Dr.) P. P. Gunaratna, Eng. D. P. L.
Ranasinghe and Eng. Miss T. A.N. Sugandika

33

The following Paper was placed in the First Over


35 years of age Category at the Competition on
Water as A Catalyst for Development: Role
of Engineering and Technology 2009/2010.
Sponsored by: International Water
Management Institute (IWMI)
Irrigation Infrastructure Management
Requirements to Ensure Water Security
for Impoverished Rural Populations under
Climate Change Scenario
by: Eng. (Prof.) N. T.S. Wijesekera

43

SECTION II

Sangupiddy Bridge
This new bridge was constructed at a former ferry point
over the Jaffna lagoon on the Navathkuli-Karethivu-Mannar
(A32) road, 17 km from Navathkuli. Owing to this bridge,
the travel distance from Mannar to Jaffna is reduced by
110 km. The seven span steel superstructure bridge (inset)
completed in October 2010, is 288 m long with 7.4 m wide
two lane carriageway. The center span which is the longest
is 40 m. The bridge, constructed for the government of Sri
Lanka, with Road Development Authority as the Engineer,
by Access Engineering /Mabey & Jhonson J.V., cost Rs. 1037
million and took 07 months to complete.
Courtesy of:
Eng Rohitha Swarna,
Deputy Director Bridge Designs Division, RDA

Detention Reservoirs as a Flood Control


Measure
by: Eng. (Mrs.) P. Hettiarachchi

57

7UDIF&DOPLQJ ,WV$SSOLFDELOLW\LQ6UL
Lanka
by: Eng. (Prof.) K. S. Weerasekera

61

Adjudication in Construction Contracts


by: Eng. A. Ranasinghe and J. C. Korale

73

Notes:
 ENGINEER, established in 1973, is a Quarterly
Journal, published in the months of January, April,
July & October of the year.
 $OOSXEOLVKHGDUWLFOHVKDYHEHHQrefereed in anonymity
by at least two subject specialists.
 Section I contains articles based on Engineering
Research while Section II contains articles of
Professional Interest.

FROM THE EDITOR ...................


Triumph in the war against terrorism, professed as unattainable by many, was secured by Sri Lanka,
two years ago. However, the physical scars left in the most affected parts of the country by a thirty year
long subjugation to terrorism would need more time and effort in the future to heal. Highest in the
list for rehabilitation are the destroyed or neglected infrastructure facilities in these areas of north and
east of the island. Reinstating the transport infrastructure of road and railway networks are the most
important and critical tasks faced by the government, to bring in normalcy and security to the long
suffering people of these regions.
It goes without saying that this endeavour rests solely in the active realms of Engineers. Through the state
engineering organizations of the country, Engineers have taken up this challenge, achieving milestones
at a steady rate. During the past couple of years, the road network in the north and east have improved
VXEVWDQWLDOO\WKRXJKDGYHUVHZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQVUHVXOWLQJLQUHFRUGRRGVKDYHFUHDWHGKDYRFLQWKHVH
areas during the past year. Not merely being content with rehabilitation of the infrastructure, our
Engineers have gone a step ahead to install improved versions of the same.
The Sanguppidy bridge on the Navathkuli-Karethivu-Mannar (A32) road is a good example of this
trend. Earlier the continuation of this road over the Jaffna lagoon was via a ferry, now upgraded to a
288 m long two lane bridge. Throughout the areas for rehabilitation, as well as the other parts of the
country, Engineers are spearheading many such projects silently. While their commitment and hard
work is beyond question, populace of the country do not get to know of the achievements of these
Engineers as they are realized. Though modesty is a virtue to be admired, wouldnt Engineers be doing
the people of the country a favour by letting them know about their accomplishments?

Eng. (Prof.) T. M. Pallewatta, Int. PEng (SL), C. Eng, FIE(SL), FIAE(SL)


Editor, ENGINEER, Journal of The Institution of Engineers.

III

ENGINEER - Vol. XXXXIV, No. 02, pp. [1-9], 2011


The Institution of Engineers, Sri Lanka

'HYHORSPHQWRIDQ(FRQRPLFDO+LJK(DUO\6WUHQJWK
&RQFUHWH0L[IRU3DYLQJRI3URYLQFLDO5RDGVLQ
6UL/DQND


:.0DPSHDUDFKFKL-9.RVJROODDQG60$1DQD\DNNDUD


$EVWUDFW5LJLGSDYHPHQWFRQVWUXFWLRQKDVDORQJKLVWRU\5HDG\PL[HGRUVLWHPL[HGFRQFUHWHLVXVHG
IRUULJLGSDYHPHQWFRQVWUXFWLRQ+RZHYHUFRQYHQWLRQDOFRQFUHWHPL[WXUHVUHTXLUHPRUHWKDQGD\V
WRJDLQDGHTXDWHVWUHQJWKWRDOORZIRUWUDIILF'HYHORSPHQWRIKLJKHDUO\VWUHQJWKFRQFUHWHZRXOGEHD
VROXWLRQ WR DOORZ WUDIILF ZLWKLQ D UHDVRQDEOH WLPH +RZHYHU XVH RI KLJK FHPHQW FRQWHQW LQ HDUO\
VWUHQJWKFRQFUHWHLQGXFHVGLVWUHVVLQWKHSDYHPHQWVDQGZRXOGQRWEHDQHFRQRPLFDOPL[

$ KLJK SHUIRUPDQFH FRQFUHWH PL[ ZDV GHYHORSHG IRU ULJLG SDYHPHQW FRQVWUXFWLRQ XVLQJ D ORZ FRVW
DGPL[WXUHZLWKDYDLODEOHPDWHULDOVLQ6UL/DQND6WXG\KDVVKRZQWKDWRIFRPPHUFLDOJUDGH&D&O
FDQ EH XVHG DV DQ DFFHOHUDWRU WR REWDLQ UHTXLUHG FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK DQG WKH IOH[XUDO VWUHQJWK RI
FRQFUHWH LQ  KRXUV  6WUHQJWK JDLQ ZDV YHULILHG E\ WKH PDWXULW\ WHVW FRQGXFWHG IRU D VODE SODFHG
XQGHUILHOGFRQGLWLRQ6ODEWHPSHUDWXUHZDVDOVRPHDVXUHGZLWKWLPHDQGIRXQGWHPSHUDWXUHULVHGXH
WR KHDW RI K\GUDWLRQ ZDV LQVLJQLILFDQW 8VLQJ WKH PL[ SURSRUWLRQ GHYHORSHG FRQFUHWH URDGV FDQ EH
DOORZHGIRUWUDIILFLQKRXUVDQGFDQDOVREHXVHGIRUUHSDLUZRUNVRIWKHH[LVWLQJURDGV
/LIHF\FOHFRVWDQDO\VLVZDVSHUIRUPHGWDNLQJLQWRDFFRXQWWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWPDLQWHQDQFHFRVWDQG
WKH XVHU FRVW 7KH VWXG\ KDV VKRZQ WKDW WKHUH LV  VDYLQJ E\ XVLQJ KLJK HDUO\ VWUHQJWK FRQFUHWH
GHYHORSHGLQWKLVVWXG\
.H\ZRUGV+LJKHDUO\VWUHQJWK&DOFLXP&KORULGH5LJLG3DYHPHQW&RQFUHWH5RDGV/LIH&\FOH&RVW
$QDO\VLV




,QWURGXFWLRQ



WUDQVYHUVH DQG ORQJLWXGLQDO FUDFNV GXH WR
UHVWUDLQHG FRQWUDFWLRQ DQG WKH FRPELQHG
HIIHFWV RI UHVWUDLQHG FXUOLQJ ZDUSLQJ DQG
WUDIILFORDG

7KH ULJLG SDYHPHQW RU 3RUWODQG &HPHQW


&RQFUHWH 3&&  SDYHPHQW  VKRXOG EH SODFHG
RQ DQ LPSURYHG VXEJUDGH RU RQ D VXEEDVH RI
DSSURYHG W\SH DQG WKLFNQHVV 7KH VXEEDVH
PD\EHQDWXUDOVRLORUVWDELOL]HGVRLORUJUDGHG
JUDQXODU PDWHULDO 6ODE WKLFNQHVVHV QRUPDOO\
YDU\EHWZHHQPPDQGPPGHSHQGLQJ
RQ WKH VXEJUDGH FRQGLWLRQV DQG WUDIILF 6ODE
ZLGWK RI WKRVH URDGV YDULHV IURP  P WR 
PFRUUHVSRQGLQJWRWKHZLGWKRIDWUDIILFODQH
2QFH WKH FRQFUHWH LV SODFHG VXLWDEOH SRNHU
YLEUDWRUV RU YLEUDWLQJ EHDPV LV XVHG IRU
FRPSDFWLRQ 7KH VXUIDFHV DUH ILQLVKHG URXJK
)RU WKLV SXUSRVH D PHFKDQLFDO EURRP RU
VXLWDEOHKDQGEURRPLVXVHG&XULQJRIWKHODLG
FRQFUHWHVKRXOGEHFDUULHGRXWIRUDPLQLPXP
SHULRGRIGD\V

)XUWKHU MRLQWV GLYLGH WKH SDYHPHQW LQWR


SUDFWLFDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ LQFUHPHQWV >@
7UDQVYHUVH MRLQWV DUH FUHDWHG PDLQO\ WR
DFFRPPRGDWHWKHUPDODQGVKULQNDJHVWUHVVHV
&RQFUHWH3DYHPHQWVGRQRWQHFHVVDULO\UHTXLUH
H[SDQVLRQMRLQWV>@
(QJ 'U  :. 0DPSHDUDFKFKL  %6F (QJ +RQV 
0RUDWXZD  06&( VRXWK )ORULGD   3K' )ORULGD 
&0,/7 8.  6HQLRU /HFWXUHU 'HSDUWPHQW RI &LYLO
(QJLQHHULQJ8QLYHUVLW\RI0RUDWXZD
-9 .RVJROOD %6F (QJ +RQV  0RUDWXZD  5HVHDUFK
$VVLVWDQW 'HSDUWPHQW RI &LYLO DQG (QYLURQPHQWDO
(QJLQHHULQJ8QLYHUVLW\RI0RUDWXZD
(QJ 3URI  60$ 1DQD\DNNDUD  %6F (QJ +RQV 
0RUDWXZD  0(QJ 7RN\R  '(QJ 7RN\R  3URIHVVRU
'HSDUWPHQW RI &LYLO (QJLQHHULQJ 8QLYHUVLW\ RI
0RUDWXZD

-RLQW V\VWHPV DUH GHVLJQHG WR FRQWURO FUDFNLQJ


DQG PDLQWDLQ SDYHPHQW VWUXFWXUDO LQWHJULW\
DQG ULGLQJ TXDOLW\ URDG URXJKQHVV  DW ORZ
DQQXDOFRVW-RLQWVLQULJLGSDYHPHQWVFRQWURO


1

ENGINEER

&RQWUDFWLRQMRLQWVDUHFUHDWHGE\PDNLQJDVDZ
FXW LQ WKH VODE WR D GHSWK RI  RI WKH
WKLFNQHVV RI WKH VODE >@ 7KH MRLQWV DUH ILOOHG
ZLWKDSSURYHGMRLQWILOOHU



/RDGWUDQVIHUDW-RLQWVFDQEHIXUWKHUHQKDQFHG
E\ XVLQJ GRZHO EDUV DFURVV WKH MRLQWV 'RZHO
EDUV DUH XVXDOO\ SODFHG DW PLG GHSWK RI WKH
VODE ZLWK  PP VSDFLQJ IRU WKLFN FRQFUHWH
SDYHPHQWGHVLJQHGIRUKHDY\WUDIILFURDGV>@

+LJK HDUO\ VWUHQJWK FRQFUHWH VKRXOG EH


LQWURGXFHG WR UHGXFH WKH GHOD\V DQG
LQFRQYHQLHQFH WR XVHUV GXH WR FORVXUH RI WKH
URDGV>@7KHUHTXLUHGFRQFUHWHVWUHQJWKLV
VSHFLILHG LQ WHUPV RI IOH[XUDO VWUHQJWK RU
FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK RU ERWK 8VXDOO\ D
PLQLPXP  GD\ IOH[XUDO VWUHQJWK RI 
1PP SVL RUFXEHFUXVKLQJ VWUHQJWK RI
 1PP  SVL  LV UHFRPPHQGHG E\
PDQ\KLJKZD\DJHQFLHV>@



*HQHUDOUHTXLUHPHQWV

5HVHDUFK1HHGV


&RQFUHWHSDYLQJKDVEHHQZLGHO\XVHGIRUORZ
YROXPHURDGVLQ6UL/DQNDVLQFHZLWKWKH
JRYHUQPHQW DOORFDWHG IXQGLQJ IRU ORFDO
JRYHUQPHQW DJHQFLHV WR FRQVWUXFW FRQFUHWH
URDGV ,W LV FRQVLGHUHG DV D FRVW HIIHFWLYH URDG
FRQVWUXFWLRQ WHFKQLTXH IRU ORZ YROXPH URDGV
VLQFH FRQFUHWH URDGV KDYH OHVV PDLQWHQDQFH
FRVW &XUUHQWO\ IHZ URDGV PDQDJHG E\ WKH
5RDG 'HYHORSPHQW $XWKRULW\ 5'$  KDYH
DOVREHHQFRQVWUXFWHGXVLQJFRQFUHWH1RUPDO
FRQFUHWHQHHGVDWOHDVWGD\VWRJDLQVXIILFLHQW
VWUHQJWKWRDOORZIRUWUDIILF7KHUHIRUHWKHXVHU
FRVW GXH WR FORVXUH RI WKH URDG IRU D ORQJ
SHULRGLQFUHDVHVWKHRYHUDOOFRVWRIWKHSURMHFW
7KHUH LV D QHHG IRU HYDOXDWLQJ OLIH F\FOH FRVW
FRQVLGHULQJ FRQVWUXFWLRQ PDLQWHQDQFH DQG
XVHUFRVW,QFUHDVHRIFRQFUHWHHDUO\VWUHQJWKWR
DOORZ WUDIILF DW D PLQLPXP WLPH VKRXOG EH
FRQVLGHUHG WR PDNH FRQFUHWH SDYLQJ IHDVLEOH
IRUURDGVZLWKFRQVLGHUDEOHWUDIILF

7KH )ORULGD 'HSDUWPHQW RI 7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ


)'27  VSHFLILHV WKDW WKH FRQFUHWH UHTXLUHV D
PLQLPXPKRXUFRPSUHVVLYHVWUHQJWKRI
03D  SVL  DQG D PLQLPXP  KRXU
FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK RI  03D  SVL 
EHIRUHDOORZLQJWUDIILFDWHDUO\DJHRIFRQFUHWH
>@
7KH
&DOLIRUQLD
'HSDUWPHQW
RI
7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ VSHFLILHV D PLQLPXP PRGXOXV
RI UXSWXUH  03D  SVL   DW WKH WLPH RI
RSHQLQJ WR WUDIILF DQG  03D  SVL  DW 
GD\V>@ )URP D VLPLODU VWXG\ FRQGXFWHG E\
WKH DXWKRUV XVLQJ KHDY\ YHKLFOH VLPXODWRU DW
DQDFFHOHUDWHGSDYHPHQWIDFLOLW\ LW ZDVIRXQG
WKDW IRU D LQFK VODE SODFHG RQ D VWURQJ
IRXQGDWLRQ D PLQLPXP FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK
RI  03D  SVL  IRU WKH FRQFUHWH DW WKH
WLPHRIDSSOLFDWLRQRIWUDIILFORDG>@

,W KDV EHHQ UHYHDOHG LQ ILHOG VXUYH\V WKDW


FRQFUHWH SDYHPHQWV DUH DOORZHG WR WUDIILF DW
HDUO\ DJH RI FRQFUHWH GXH WR LQDGHTXDWH
DOWHUQDWLYHURXWHVWRGHWRXUWKHWUDIILF)LJXUH
VKRZVWKHYHKLFOHW\UHPDUNVRIWKH0LGGDQL\D
:HHUDNHWWL\DURDGGXHWRVXFKVLWXDWLRQ

)LJXUH7LUH0DUNVRQQHZO\FRQVWUXFWHG
5RDG:HHUDNHWWL\D0LGGHQL\D5RDG

ENGINEER

+LJK (DUO\ 6WUHQJWK &RQFUHWH


0L[IRU5LJLG3DYHPHQWV

5HLQIRUFHG FRQFUHWH   RI VWHHO  DUH


UHFRPPHQGHG IRU FRQWLQXRXV FRQFUHWH VODE
SDYHPHQW MRLQW IUHH  WR UHGXFH WKH FUDFN
ZLGWK 'RZHO EDUV DUH DOVR UHFRPPHQGHG IRU
EHWWHU ORDG WUDQVIHU EHWZHHQ VODEV LQ MRLQWHG
UHLQIRUFHG FRQFUHWH SDYHPHQWV +RZHYHU
'RZHO EDUV FDQ RQO\ EH LQVWDOOHG LQ FRQFUHWH
SDYHPHQWV ZLWK VODE WKLFNQHVV RI  LQFKHV RU
PRUH 7KH PDMRULW\ RI WKH URDGV LQ SURYLQFLDO
VHFWRU UHTXLUHV PD[LPXP RI  LQFKHV WKLFN
FRQFUHWHVODEV>@

)XUWKHUPRUH $PHULFDQ &RQFUHWH 3DYHPHQW
$VVRFLDWLRQUHFRPPHQGVGRZHOEDUSDYHPHQW
IRU URDGV ZKLFK FDUU\  PD[LPXP WUXFN
WUDIILF SHU GD\ SHU ODQH RU PD[LPXP
(TXLYDOHQW 6WDQGDUG D[OH ORDG (6$/  RI 
PLOOLRQ VWDQGDUG D[OHV PVD  RU OHVV GXULQJ
GHVLJQ OLIH >@  ,Q 6UL /DQND RQO\ DERXW 
NPRIURDGVFDUULHVWKH$YHUDJH'DLO\7UDIILF
$'7 RIRUPRUHWUDIILF +HDYH\YHKLFOH
SHUFHQWDJH YDULHV IURP  LQ SURYLQFLDO
URDGV>@ )LJXUHVKRZVWKHWUDIILFYROXPHRI
1DWLRQDOURDGVLQ6UL/DQND7KHUHIRUHLWLVQRW

FRQGLWLRQV FRQFUHWLQJ  VKRXOG EH DYRLGHG


&DOFLXP&KORULGHGRHVQRWVLJQLILFDQWO\UHGXFH
WKH ZDWHU UHTXLUHG WR SURGXFH D JLYHQ VOXPS
&DOFLXP &KORULGH GRHV QRW FDXVH HQWUDLQPHQW
RI DLU LQ FRQFUHWH >@ ,W LQFUHDVHV KHDW RI
K\GUDWLRQRIFRQFUHWH>@

&DOFLXPFKORULGHLVDYDLODEOHDVSHOOHWVRURWKHU
IRUPV VXFK DV JUDQXOHV IODNHV RU LQ VROXWLRQ
IRUP 7KH UHJXODU IODNH IRUP FRQWDLQV D
PLQLPXP RI  SHU FHQW RI FDOFLXP FKORULGH
DQG WKH SHOOHW DQG RWKHU JUDQXODU IRUPV
FRQWDLQDPLQLPXPRISHUFHQW7KHUHJXODU
IODNH IRUP RU LQGXVWULDO FDOFLXP FKORULGH
DYDLODEOHLQWKHPDUNHWLVOHVVH[SHQVLYHZKHQ
FRPSDUHGZLWKWKHDQDO\WLFDOFDOFLXPFKORULGH
ZLWK PLQLPXP LPSXULWLHV 7KH IODNH IRUP
FDOFLXP FKORULGH ZDV XVHG LQ WKLV VWXG\ WR
GHYHORS PRUH FRVW HIIHFWLYH PL[ SURSRUWLRQ
&DOFLXPFKORULGHLVVXSSOLHGLQPRLVWXUHSURRI
EDJV DLUWLJKW GUXPV RU RWKHU DSSURSULDWH
PHDQV DQG VKRXOG EH VWRUHG FDUHIXOO\ DJDLQVW
PRLVWXUH,IDQ\OXPSVGHYHORSGXULQJVWRUDJH
WKH\ VKRXOG EH GLVFDUGHG &DOFLXP FKORULGH
FDQEHGLVVROYHGLQHLWKHUFROGRUKRWZDWHU,Q
SUHSDUDWLRQ RI D VROXWLRQ LW LV D JRRG SUDFWLFH
WRDGGWKH&D&OWRWKHZDWHU,IZDWHULVDGGHG
WR WKH &D&O KDUG FRDWLQJ IRUPV DQG PDNHV
GLVVROXWLRQ VORZ )UHVKO\ PDGH VROXWLRQ LV
WXUQHG WR EH ZDUP DQG VKRXOG EH FRROHG WR
URRPWHPSHUDWXUHEHIRUHXVH

QHFHVVDU\ WR XVH GRZHO EDUV LQ FRQFUHWH


SDYHPHQWV IRU PDQ\ QDWLRQDO DQG SURYLQFLDO
URDGV LQ 6UL /DQND +RZHYHU FORVXUH RI WKHVH
URDGV IRU D ORQJHU SHULRG LV QRW SRVVLEOH
EHFDXVH WKHVH URDGV DUH WKH SULPDU\ DQG
VHFRQGDU\OLQNVLQWKHURDGQHWZRUN

0HGLXP



+LJK



9HU\+LJK



9HU\/RZ



/RZ



)LJXUH5RDG/HQJWKGLVWULEXWLRQE\
7UDIILF9ROXPH

7KHUHIRUHLWLVQHFHVVDU\WRGHYHORSDVXLWDEOH
FRQFUHWH PL[ SURSRUWLRQ ZLWK D VXLWDEOH
DGPL[WXUH DYDLODEOH LQ 6UL /DQND WR DFKLHYH
KLJKHDUO\VWUHQJWK&D&OZDVVHOHFWHGDVWKH
DFFHOHUDWRU WR DFKLHYH KLJK HDUO\ VWUHQJWK LQ
FRQFUHWH
&DOFLXP&KORULGHDVDQDGPL[WXUH
6HYHUDO &KHPLFDOV DUH NQRZQ WR DFW DV
DFFHOHUDWRUV IRU FRQFUHWH VXFK DV &DOFLXP
)RUPDWH $OXPLQLXP &KORULGH 3RWDVVLXP
&DUERQDWH 6RGLXP &KORULGH DQG &DOFLXP
&KORULGH >@ +RZHYHU &DOFLXP &KORULGH LV
WKH PRVW ZLGHO\ XVHG DFFHOHUDWRU LQ
XQUHLQIRUFHG FRQFUHWH &DOFLXP &KORULGH
&D&O  LV QRW UHFRPPHQGHG IRU UHLQIRUFHG
FRQFUHWH DV &D&O SURPRWHV FRUURVLRQ RI
UHLQIRUFHPHQWV&DFOQHHGVWRFRQIRUPWRWKH
IROORZLQJ UHTXLUHPHQWV WR XVH DV DQ
DGPL[WXUH

+LJK FRQFHQWUDWHG VROXWLRQV RI FDOFLXP


FKORULGH DUH QRW SUHSDUHG EHFDXVH RI WKH
SRVVLELOLW\WKDWH[FHVVFKORULGHZLOOVHWWOHWRWKH
ERWWRP ,W LV PRUH FRQYHQLHQW WR SUHSDUH D
VROXWLRQ FRQWDLQLQJ  NJ  RI UHJXODU IODNH
IRUP ZLWK  SHUFHQW PLQLPXP FDOFLXP
FKORULGH  RU  NJ RI SHOOHW RU FRQFHQWUDWHG
IODNHRURWKHUJUDQXODWHGIRUP ZLWKSHUFHQW
PLQLPXP FDOFLXP FKORULGH  LQ HDFK OLWHU RI
VROXWLRQ,WWKHQEHFRPHVSUDFWLFDOWKRXJKQRW
H[DFW WR DGG  OLWHU RI VWDQGDUG VROXWLRQ SHU
VDFN RI FHPHQW ZKHQ  SHU FHQW FDOFLXP
FKORULGH LV VSHFLILHG 7KH VROXWLRQ LV
FRQVLGHUHGWREHDSDUWRIWKHPL[LQJZDWHUIRU
FRQFUHWH

7RWDO$ONDOL&KORULGHV 1D. PD[ 


7RWDO0DJQHVLXPDV0J&OPD[

2WKHULPSXULWLHVPD[



7KHUH DUH VHYHUDO SRVLWLYH DQG QHJDWLYH
LPSDFWV RI &D&O &DOFLXP &ORULGH LV UHDGLO\
DYDLODEOH DQG DOVR XVDJH RI &D&O VDYHV
HQRUPRXV FRVW IRU FRQVWUXFWLRQ >@ ,W
VLJQLILFDQWO\ UHGXFHV ERWK LQLWLDO DQG ILQDO
VHWWLQJ WLPH RI FRQFUHWH >@ $SDUW IURP WKDW
&D&O LQFUHDVHV WKH UHVLVWDQFH RI FRQFUHWH WR
HURVLRQ DQG DEUDVLRQ>@ +RZHYHU &D&O
LQFUHDVHV GU\LQJ VKULQNDJH RI FRQFUHWH E\ 
 >@ %HFDXVH LW KDV D YHU\ UDSLG VHW
7KHUHIRUH HYHQ ZLWK D VOLJKW KRW ZHDWKHU

&DOFLXP FKORULGH VROXWLRQ PD\ EH DGGHG


PDQXDOO\ EXW DQ DXWRPDWLF GLVSHQVHU LV PRUH
UHOLDEOH 7KH VROXWLRQ VKRXOG QRW FRPH LQWR
GLUHFWFRQWDFWZLWKFHPHQWEHFDXVHLWPD\IODVK
VHW,WLVXVXDOO\DGGHGWRWKHPL[LQJZDWHURU
WR WKH DJJUHJDWHV :KHQ FDOFLXP FKORULGH
VROXWLRQ LV VXSSOLHG GLUHFWO\ E\ WKH
PDQXIDFWXUHU LWV VWUHQJWK FDQ EH DVVHVVHG E\
GHWHUPLQLQJ WKH VSHFLILF JUDYLW\ ZLWK D
K\GURPHWHU

ENGINEER


(IIHFWRI&D&ORQ6HWWLQJRI&RQFUHWH
&DOFLXP FKORULGH VLJQLILFDQWO\ UHGXFHV ERWK
LQLWLDODQGILQDOVHWWLQJWLPHRIFRQFUHWH7KLVLV
SDUWLFXODUO\ XVHIXO IRU FRQFUHWLQJ RSHUDWLRQV
FDUULHG RXW DW ORZ RU PRGHUDWH WHPSHUDWXUHV
([FHVVLYHDPRXQWV IRUH[DPSOHSHUFHQWE\
WKH ZHLJKW RI FHPHQW  FDXVH D YHU\ UDSLG VHW
&D&O VKRXOG QRW EH XVHG LQ KRW ZHDWKHU
EHFDXVH VHWWLQJ PD\ RFFXU VR UDSLGO\ WKDW
SODFLQJ DQG ILQLVKLQJ PD\ EHFRPH YHU\
GLIILFXOWVWUHQJWKPD\DOVREHDIIHFWHG>@












&RQFUHWHPL[GHVLJQ
6WUHQJWK GHYHORSPHQW RI FRQFUHWH LV D FULWLFDO
IDFWRU LQ GHWHUPLQLQJ WKH WLPH RI RSHQLQJ RI
WKHSDYHPHQWWRWUDIILF7KHGD\VWUHQJWKRI
WKH PL[ VKRXOG DOVR EH FRQVLGHUHG ZKHQ
GHVLJQLQJ SDYHPHQWV IRU ORQJWHUP HIIHFWV RI
IDWLJXHDQGRWKHUWUDIILFLQGXFHGGLVWUHVVHV

)LJXUH&RPSUHVVLYHVWUHQJWKJDLQZLWK
&D&O
$V VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH  KLJKHVW VWUHQJWK JDLQ
ZDV REWDLQHG IRU  RI &D&O FRQWHQW 7KDW
DPRXQW FDQ EH LGHQWLILHG DV WKH RSWLPXP
DPRXQWRI&D&OIRUUDSLGVWUHQJWKJDLQ

7KH PL[ GHVLJQ ZDV SHUIRUPHG WR DFKLHYH WKH


DYHUDJH GD\ FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK RI 
1PPDQGVOXPSLQWKHUDQJHRIPP

$FFRUGLQJ WR D SUHYLRXV VWXG\ >  @  WKH


PLQLPXP FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK RI FRQFUHWH
UHTXLUHG WR DOORZ WUDIILF DIWHU SODFLQJ RI
FRQFUHWH LV  03D  SVL  %DVHG RQ WKH
DERYH UHVHDUFK WKH UHTXLUHG VWUHQJWK FDQ EH
REWDLQHGLQKRXUVZLWKRI&D&O

7HPSHUDWXUHWLPHUHODWLRQVKLS
)LJXUHVKRZVWKHWHPSHUDWXUHYDULDWLRQZLWK
WLPH RI WHVW FXEHV    PP  PP 
PP ZLWKYDULRXV&D&O SHUFHQWDJHV,WFDQEH
VHHQWKDWWKHUHLVDWHPSHUDWXUHULVHLQFRQFUHWH
ZLWK&D&ODQGLWLQFUHDVHVZLWKWKHLQFUHDVHRI
&D&OSHUFHQWDJH



%\ IROORZLQJ WKH 'R( PL[ GHVLJQ SURFHGXUH


>@DPL[SURSRUWLRQZDVREWDLQHGWRDFKLHYH
WKH UHTXLUHG SHUIRUPDQFH ZLWK WKH DERYH
SDUDPHWHUVDVJLYHQLQ7DEOH
&RQFUHWHFXEHVZHUHFDVWDQGWHVWHGDWKRXUV
 KRXUV  KRXUV  KRXUV  KRXUV  GD\V
DQGGD\V)LJXUHVKRZVWKHVWUHQJWKJDLQ
ZLWKWLPHIRUGLIIHUHQWGRVDJHVRI&D&O EDVHG
RQFHPHQWFRQWHQW
7DEOH   0L[ SURSRUWLRQ IRU FRQFUHWH
SDYHPHQW





















ENGINEER

)LJXUH7HPSHUDWXUHWLPHUHODWLRQVKLSRI
WHVWFXEHV

%HQHILWVDQGOLPLWDWLRQV

0D[LPXP UHFRUGHG WHPSHUDWXUH GLIIHUHQFH


ZLWKUHVSHFWWR&D&OZDV&IRURI
&D&O 7KLV HDUO\ VWDJH WHPSHUDWXUH
GHYHORSPHQWGXHWRFDFOFDQEHFRQVLGHUHGDV
LQVLJQLILFDQW IRU FRQFUHWH SDYHPHQWV LQ WKH
UDQJHRIPPWKLFN+RZHYHUWHPSHUDWXUH
ULVHVKRXOGEHPRQLWRUHGXQGHUILHOGFRQGLWLRQ
WRYHULI\WKLV

7LPHRISODFHPHQW

7KH PDWXULW\ DSSURDFK SURYLGHV D XVHIXO DQG


VLPSOH PHDQV RI HVWLPDWLQJ WKH VWUHQJWK JDLQ
RIFRQFUHWHDWHDUO\DJH JHQHUDOO\OHVVWKDQ
GD\V ROG  >@ ,W DOORZV HQJLQHHUV WR DVVHVV WKH
LQ SODFH VWUHQJWK RI D FRQFUHWH SDYHPHQW
VWUXFWXUH 7KLV YDOXDEOH LQIRUPDWLRQ FDQ WKHQ
EH XVHG WR GHWHUPLQH WKH DSSURSULDWH WLPH IRU
RSHQLQJ D SDYHPHQW WR WUDIILF RU IRU VDZLQJ
MRLQWVRUIRUVWULSSLQJIRUPV)XUWKHUPRUHFRVW
RI TXDOLW\ DVVXUDQFH GHFUHDVHV DQG PDWXULW\
PRQLWRULQJ FDXVHV QR GDPDJH WR WKH H[LVWLQJ
FRQFUHWHSDYHPHQW

+RW ZKHWKHU FRQFUHWLQJ VKRXOG EH DYRLGHG


VLQFHWKHFRQFUHWHZLWK&DFOFDQVHWIDVWHUDQG
WHPSHUDWXUH LQFUHDVH PD\ EH VLJQLILFDQW
:KHQ FRQFUHWH LV SODFHG XQGHU ZDUP VXQQ\
FRQGLWLRQV WKH PD[LPXP WHPSHUDWXUH RI WKH
FRQFUHWHZLOOYDU\GHSHQGLQJXSRQWKHWLPHRI
WKHGD\&RQFUHWHSDYHGLQHDUO\PRUQLQJZLOO
RIWHQ UHDFK D KLJKHU PD[LPXP WHPSHUDWXUH
WKDQ WKH FRQFUHWH SDYHG LQ ODWH PRUQLQJ DQG
DIWHUQRRQ ,W KDV EHHQ IRXQG IURP D SUHYLRXV

+RZHYHU FDOLEUDWLRQ FXUYHV DV VKRZQ LQ


)LJXUH  DUH GHYHORSHG EDVHG RQ SURMHFW
VSHFLILF PDWHULDOV $Q\ FKDQJHV LQ WKH PL[
GHVLJQ ZLOO UHTXLUH D QHZ FDOLEUDWLRQ FXUYH
$OVR VRPH IDFWRUV DIIHFWLQJ FRQFUHWH VWUHQJWK
HJ FRQVROLGDWLRQ PD\ QRW EH FRQVLGHUHG LQ
PDWXULW\ WHVWLQJ 0DWXULW\ WHVW GRHV QRW
FRQVLGHU WKH HIIHFW RI HDUO\ DJH FRQFUHWH
WHPSHUDWXUH RQ ORQJ WHUP XOWLPDWH VWUHQJWK
>@

VWXG\WKDWFRQFUHWHSODFHGLQWKHPRUQLQJEHFRPHV
QHDUO\ & ZDUPHU WKDQ WKH FRQFUHWH SODFHG LQ

ODWH DIWHUQRRQ >@ %\ SODFLQJ WKH FRQFUHWH LQ


HYHQLQJ SUHIHUDEO\DIWHUSP ZLOOUHGXFHWKH
KHDW JHQHUDWLRQ LQ WKH FRQFUHWH DQG DOVR OHVV
GLVUXSWLRQWRWUDIILF

7KH 1XUVH6DXO PDWXULW\ UHODWLRQVKLS ZDV


GHYHORSHG LQ V DQG WKH PRVW ZLGHO\
DFFHSWHG PHDQV RI FRPSXWLQJ PDWXULW\ LV WKH
DFFXPXODWHGSURGXFWRIWLPHDQGWHPSHUDWXUH
>@

 0DWXULW\7HVW
7KH VWUHQJWK RI D FRQFUHWH PL[WXUH WKDW KDV
EHHQ SURSHUO\ SODFHG DQG FXUHG FDQ EH
H[SUHVVHG DV D IXQFWLRQ RI WKH  DJH DQG
WHPSHUDWXUH KLVWRU\ >@ ,QFUHDVH LQ FXULQJ
WHPSHUDWXUH DQG ORQJHU FXULQJ WLPHV OHDG WR
LQFUHDVH LQ VWUHQJWK GHYHORSPHQW 0DWXULW\
WHVWLQJ SURYLGHV D UHOLDEOH WHFKQLTXH IRU
FRQWLQXRXV PRQLWRULQJ RI VWUHQJWK JDLQ RI
FRQFUHWH 7KH WHVW PHWKRG UHFRJQL]HV WKH
FRPELQHG HIIHFW RI WLPH DQG WHPSHUDWXUH DQG
SURYLGHV D EDVLV IRU HVWLPDWLQJ WKH LQ VLWX
VWUHQJWK JDLQ RI FRQFUHWH E\ PRQLWRULQJ
WHPSHUDWXUHRIFRQFUHWHRYHUWLPH




      



       





7HVWSURFHGXUH

0DWXULW\ GLUHFWO\ VKRZV D UHODWLRQVKLS WR


VWUHQJWK 7KH PDWXULW\ RI FRQFUHWH PD\ EH
GHILQHG DV LWV DJH PXOWLSOLHG E\ WKH DYHUDJH
WHPSHUDWXUH WKDW LW KDV PDLQWDLQHG %DVHG RQ
WKH GHILQLWLRQ WKH ODZ RI VWUHQJWK JDLQ ZLWK
PDWXULW\ ZDV GHYHORSHG 7KH ODZ VWDWHV
FRQFUHWH RI WKH VDPH PL[WXUH DW WKH VDPH
PDWXULW\ PHDVXUHG DV WHPSHUDWXUHWLPH 
JLYHV DSSUR[LPDWHO\ WKH VDPH VWUHQJWK
ZKDWHYHU FRPELQDWLRQ RI WHPSHUDWXUH DQG
WLPHJRHVWRPDNHXSWKDWPDWXULW\>@

&RQFUHWHVODERIPPPPZDV
FDVW WR PRQLWRU WHPSHUDWXUH DQG VWUHQJWK
GHYHORSPHQW 7KH WKHUPRFRXSOHV ZHUH SODFHG
DW  WKH PLG GHSWK RI WKH PLGGOH RI WKH VODE LQ
RUGHU WR PHDVXUH WKH WHPSHUDWXUH XQGHU ILHOG
FRQGLWLRQ 6L[WHHQ   WHVW FXEHV ZHUH FDVW WR
SHUIRUPFRPSUHVVLYHVWUHQJWKWHVWDWKRXUV
KRXUV  KRXUV  KRXUV DQG  KRXUV
7KHUPRFRXSOHV ZHUH HPEHGGHG LQ RQH RI WKH
WHVW FXEHV &XULQJ ZDV GRQH LQ DFFRUGDQFH
ZLWK $670 & &RPSUHVVLRQ WHVWLQJ ZDV
FRQGXFWHG DFFRUGLQJ WR $670 & $IWHU WKDW



ENGINEER

ENGINEER

0DLQWHQDQFHFRVW

PRGHUDWHO\WUDIILFURDGV&RVWVDYLQJLVPDLQO\
GXHWRPLQLPL]LQJXVHUGHOD\FRVW

0DLQWHQDQFH FRVW LQFOXGHV WKH FRVWV RI


PDLQWHQDQFHRIWKHURDGVXUIDFH

(VWLPDWLRQRIFRVWRIULJLGSDYHPHQWV
(VWLPDWLRQ RI PDLQWHQDQFH FRVW RI ULJLG
SDYHPHQWVZDVSHUIRUPHGIRUDWUDIILFYROXPH
RI YSG 7DEOH $ JLYHV WKH FRVW RI
PDWHULDOVDQGOD\LQJRIFRQFUHWHSHUP

$33(1',; &267$1$/<6,6 

1HW3UHVHQW9DOXH 139 
1HW 3UHVHQW 9DOXH WHFKQLTXH H[SOLFLWO\
UHFRJQL]HVWKHWLPHYDOXHRIPRQH\7KHLQLWLDO
FRVW WDNHV SODFH GXULQJ WKH \HDU ]HUR 7KH
DQQXDO FRVW IURP WKH \HDU ]HUR WR Q PXVW EH
GLVFRXQWHG WR ILQG WKH ]HUR \HDU   





        





 
 




9DOXH RI PRQH\ FKDQJHV ZLWK WKH HIIHFWV RI


LQIODWLRQ DQG LQWHUHVW UDWH %DVHG RQ VHYHUDO
HFRQRPLF SDUDPHWHUV WKH GLVFRXQWLQJ UDWH
VKRXOG EH HVWLPDWHG 'LVFRXQWLQJ IDFWRU
FKDQJHVZLWKWKHLQIODWLRQDQGLQWHUHVWUDWH

7KHPDWKHPDWLFDOUHODWLRQVKLSIRUGLVFRXQWLQJ
IDFWRU L FDQEHJLYHQDVEHORZ


 

 

 
       

        

  













          






-RLQWFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVW
-RLQWFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVW 5V SHUOLQHDUPHWHU
-RLQWVSDFLQJ P
7RWDOOLQHDUMRLQWOHQJWKIRUPOHQJWKPZLGWK
VHFWLRQ P
-RLQW FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRVW  5V  XVLQJ D
VDZLQJ PDFKLQH DV UHFRPPHQGHG LQ WKH
VSHFLILFDWLRQ66&0 

8VHUGHOD\FRVW
(VWLPDWLRQ RI YDOXH RI WLPH IRU WUDQVSRUW XVHU
JURXSV>@



'HWHUPLQDWLRQRIGLVFRXQWLQJIDFWRU

























 

*HQHUDOFRVWFRPSRQHQWV
7KHUH DUH WZR PDMRU FRVW FRPSRQHQWV
DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK URDG FRQVWUXFWLRQ   ,QLWLDO
FRVWDQG  0DLQWHQDQFHFRVW
,QLWLDOFRVW
,QLWLDO FRVW FDQ EDVLFDOO\ EH GLYLGHG LQWR WKUHH
PDMRU SDUWV LH ODQG DFTXLVLWLRQ FRVW GHVLJQ
DQGSURIHVVLRQDOIHHDQGFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVW









































      
          


   



 





ENGINEER



       
 
       




         
 



 



 

      


 





 









       



 


5V 
5V 



 
7LPH <HDUV 


 
        










ENGINEER

  
u  




5HIHUHQFHV


 6WDWHRIWKH$UW5HSRUW)+:$6SHFLDO
3URMHFW  5HSRUW )+:$6$ 
$FFHOHUDWHG 5LJLG 3DYLQJ 7HFKQLTXHV
)HGHUDO +LJKZD\ $GPLQLVWUDWLRQ
:DVKLQJWRQ'&
 7HFKQLFDO &RPPLWWHH 'RFXPHQW $&,
5 $FFHOHUDWHG 7HFKQLTXHV IRU
&RQFUHWH 3DYLQJ &RPPLWWHH 
$PHULFDQ
&RQFUHWH
,QVWLWXWH
)DUPLQJWRQ+LOOV0LFK
 $PHULFDQ $VVRFLDWLRQ RI 6WDWH
+LJKZD\ DQG 7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ 2IILFLDOV
$$6+72  *XLGH IRU 'HVLJQ RI
3DYHPHQW 6WUXFWXUHV :DVKLQJWRQ '&

 &DOLIRUQLD
'HSDUWPHQW
RI
7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ
&DO7UDQV
6ODE
5HSODFHPHQW *XLGHOLQHV &DOLIRUQLD
'HSDUWPHQW
RI
7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ
3XEOLFDWLRQ DQG 'LVWULEXWLRQ 8QLW
 5R\DO 2DNV 'ULYH 6DFUDPHQWR
&$

 &UDZIRUG * , *XLGH WR 1RQ


GHVWUXFWLYH 7HVWLQJ RI &RQFUHWH )+:$
6$
)HGHUDO
+LJKZD\
$GPLQLVWUDWLRQ :DVKLQJWRQ '&







 


5V 
5V 



 
7LPH <HDUV 


 
        





 7HFKQLFDO &RPPLWWHH 'RFXPHQW $&,


5 &DXVHV (YDOXDWLRQ DQG
5HSDLU RI &UDFNV LQ &RQFUHWH 6WUXFWXUHV
&RPPLWWHH  $PHULFDQ &RQFUHWH
,QVWLWXWH )DUPLQJWRQ +LOOV 0LFK




 )ORULGD 'HSDUWPHQW RI 7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ


)'27  6WDQGDUG 6SHFLILFDWLRQ IRU 5RDG
DQG %ULGJH &RQVWUXFWLRQ )'27 0DSV
DQG 3XEOLFDWLRQV 7DOODKDVVHH )/


 1HYLOOH $0 DQG %URRNV --


&RQFUHWH7HFKQRORJ\3HDUVRQ,6%1
SS
 3&$7KLFNQHVV'HVLJQIRU&RQFUHWH
+LJKZD\ DQG 6WUHHW 3DYHPHQWV
6NRNLH,/

 *D\DQL -.8 'HWHUPLQDWLRQ RI


&RQFUHWH
WKLFNQHVV
IRU
5LJLG
3DYHPHQWV ZLWK 5HF\FOHG &RQFUHWH
$JJUHJDWH IRU /RZ 9ROXPH 5RDGV LQ
6UL/DQND8QLYHUVLW\RI0RUDWXZD6UL
/DQND0DVWHUV7KHVLV

 *HUDOG ) 9 (DUO\ &UDFNLQJ RI
&RQFUHWH 3DYHPHQW  &DXVHV DQG
5HSDLUV SUHVHQWHG IRU WKH )HGHUDO
$YLDWLRQ $GPLQLVWUDWLRQ $LUSRUW
7HFKQRORJ\ 7UDQVIHU &RQIHUHQFH
$WODQWLFFLW\ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO $LUSRUW1-
86$

 5DPDFKDQGUDQ 9 6 &DOFLXP &KORULGH


LQ &RQFUHWH 6FLHQFH DQG 7HFKQRORJ\
(VVH[ (QJODQG $SSOLHG 6FLHQFH
3XEOLVKHUV
 5DPDFKDQGUDQ 9 6 $FFHOHUDWRUV ,Q
&RQFUHWH
$GPL[WXUHV
KDQGERRN
3URSHUWLHV 6FLHQFH DQG 7HFKQRORJ\
1R\HV 3XEOLFDWLRQ 3DUN 5LGJH 1 -

 6DXO $ * $3ULQFLSOHV 8QGHUO\LQJ
WKH 6WHDP &XULQJ RI &RQFUHWH DW
$WPRVSKHULF 3UHVVXUH 0DJD]LQH RI
&RQFUHWH5HVHDUFK9ROQR7KRPDV
7HOIRUG3XEOLVKLQJ/RQGRQ

 +XDQJ < + 3DYHPHQW $QDO\VLV DQG


'HVLJQ 3UHQWLFH +DOO 8SSHU 6DGGOH
5LYHU1HZ-HUVH\SS

 6KRXNU\ 61 :LOOLDP *: DQG


6LULQLYDVDQ 6 $QDO\VLV RI 0LG 6ODE
7UDQVYHUVH &UDFNLQJ LQ -RLQWHG
&RQFUHWHSDYHPHQWV7KH,QWHUQDWLRQDO
-RXUQDORI3DYHPHQWV9RO1R
SS

 .XPDUD 0 : 7LD 0 &KXQJ/XQJ


:X DQG %RX]LG &KRXEDQH $QDO\VLV
RI &RPSRVLWH 3DYHPHQWV XQGHU
PRYLQJDQG6WDWLF:KHHO/RDGIURPD
+HDY\9HKLFOH6LPXODWRU
'HSDUWPHQW
RI &LYLO  &RDVWDO (QJLQHHULQJ
&ROOHJH RI (QJLQHHULQJ 8QLYHUVLW\ RI
)ORULGD*DLQHVYLOOH)/

 7H\FKHQQH '& )UDQNOLQ 5( DQG


(PWUR\ + & 'HVLJQ RI 1RUPDO
&RQFUHWH 0L[HV %XLOGLQJ 5HVHDUFK
(VWDEOLVKPHQWQGHGLWLRQ

 .XPDUD 0 : $QDO\VLV DQG


9HULILFDWLRQRI6WUHVVHVDQG6WUDLQVDQG
WKHLU 5HODWLRQVKLS WR )DLOXUH LQ
&RQFUHWH 3DYHPHQWV 8QGHU +HDY\
9HKLFOH 6LPXODWRU /RDGLQJ 3K'
'LVVHUWDWLRQ 8QLYHUVLW\ RI )ORULGD





 .XPDUDJH $6. $VVHVVLQJ 3XEOLF


7UDQVSRUW,QYHVWPHQWLQWKH7UDQVSRUW
6HFWRU 'HSDUWPHQW RI 1DWLRQDO
3ODQQLQJ 0LQLVWU\ RI )LQDQFH DQG
3ODQQLQJ&RORPER6UL/DQND
 1HOVRQ 3 . +DQGERRN RI
1RQGHVWUXFWLYH
DQG
,QQRYDWLYH
7HVWLQJ (TXLSPHQW IRU &RQFUHWH
)HGHUDO +LJKZD\ $GPLQLVWUDWLRQ
:DVKLQJWRQ'&


ENGINEER

ENGINEER - Vol. XXXXIV, No. 02, pp. [11-19], 2011


The Institution of Engineers, Sri Lanka




8VHRI5LFH+XVN$VK%OHQGHG&HPHQWWR3URGXFH
&HPHQW6DQG%ORFNV2SWLPDO/HYHORI&HPHQW
5HSODFHPHQWIRU&RPSUHVVLYH6WUHQJWK
'$5'RODJH.0\OYDJDQDP30D\RRUDWKDQDQG6,QSDUDWQDP

$EVWUDFW 7KLV DUWLFOH SULPDULO\ LQYHVWLJDWHV WKH YDULDWLRQ LQ FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK LQ UHODWLRQ WR
GLIIHUHQWOHYHOVRIUHSODFHPHQWRIFHPHQWZLWKULFHKXVNDVK 5+$ ZKHQEOHQGHGFHPHQWLVXVHGWR
SURGXFHFHPHQWVDQGEORFNV7KHVDPSOHVRI5+$XVHGLQWKLVVWXG\KDYHEHHQREWDLQHGGLUHFWO\IURP
IXUQDFHVDQGZHUHQRWIXUWKHULQFLQHUDWHG7KLVVWXG\FRQVLGHUVWZRELQGHUVDQGUDWLRV DQG 
WKUHH ZDWHUELQGHU UDWLRV   DQG   LQ LWV DWWHPSW WR GHWHUPLQH WKH RSWLPXP OHYHO RI FHPHQW
UHSODFHPHQW7KHVWXG\GHWHUPLQHVWKDWDWDURXQGILYHSHUFHQWOHYHORIUHSODFHPHQWWKHFRPSUHVVLYH
VWUHQJWK H[FHHGV WKDW RI XQEOHQGHG FHPHQW 7KH FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK GHYHORSHG ZKHQ FHPHQW
UHSODFHPHQW OHYHO LV  SHUFHQW LV JUHDWHU WKDQ WKDW VWLSXODWHG LQ 6/6  3DUW  03D  IRU
FHPHQW VDQG EORFNV 7KH VWXG\ DOVR FRQFOXGHV IROORZLQJ GLVUHJDUGLQJ WKH OHYHO RI UHSODFHPHQW WKH
FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK VWHDGLO\ GHFUHDVHV ZKHQ FHPHQW UHSODFHPHQW OHYHOV H[FHHG WKH OLPLW RI ILYH
SHUFHQWRIWKHWKUHHZDWHUELQGHUUDWLRVRIIHUVPDUJLQDOO\KLJKHUFRPSUHVVLYHVWUHQJWKVWKDQWKH
RWKHU WZR UDWLRV FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK GRHV QRW YDU\ ZKHQ FXEHV FDVW XVLQJ 5+$ VDPSOHV REWDLQHG
IURPWKUHHGLVWULFWVDUHWHVWHGWKHGHYHORSPHQW LQFRPSUHVVLYHVWUHQJWK ZKHQVDPSOHVDUH PDWXUHG
EH\RQG GD\V WLOO  GD\V LV RQO\  SHUFHQW )LQDOO\ WKH VWXG\ FRQFOXGHV WKDW JLYHQ DOO 5+$
JHQHUDWHGLQWKHFRXQWU\FDQEHSXWLQWKHXVHIRUFHPHQWUHSODFHPHQWWKHWRWDOVDYLQJWRWKHFRXQWU\
LVDSSUR[LPDWHO\5VELOOLRQ

.H\ZRUGV5LFHKXVNDVK%OHQGHGFHPHQW&RQFUHWH3R]]RODQLFDFWLRQ&RPSUHVVLYHVWUHQJWK





,QWURGXFWLRQ


,Q 6UL /DQND WKH FRVW RI PDQXIDFWXULQJ RI
FHPHQW EDVHG PDWHULDO KDV EHHQ JUDGXDOO\
LQFUHDVLQJ RZLQJ WR WKH FRVW RI FHPHQW 7KLV LV
SULPDULO\GXHWRWKHKLJKFRVWRIHQHUJ\QHHGHG
LQ FHPHQW SURGXFWLRQ ,Q YLHZ RI WKLV LW LV
LPSRUWDQW WR HFRQRPLVH WKH XVH RI 2UGLQDU\
3RUWODQG&HPHQW 23& E\FRQILQLQJ LWVXVHWR
VLWXDWLRQV ZKHUH KLJKHU VWUHQJWKV DUH
DQWLFLSDWHG

5LFHKXVNZKLFKLVWKHRXWHUFRYHULQJRIWKHULFH
JUDLQLVDQDJULFXOWXUDOE\SURGXFWJHQHUDWHGLQ
WKHULFHPLOOLQJSURFHVV,WFRQVWLWXWHVSHUFHQW
RIWKH PDVV RIWKHSDGG\ *DQHVDQ HWDO 
6UL /DQND UHFRUGHG LWV KLJKHVW HYHU SDGG\
SURGXFWLRQ RI  PLOOLRQ PHWULF WRQV LQ 
&HQWUDO %DQN   ,QFLGHQWDOO\ WKH WRWDO
SDGG\ SURGXFWLRQ LQ  GHFOLQHG E\ 
SHUFHQW WR  PLOOLRQ PHWULF WRQV &HQWUDO
%DQN 1RQHWKHOHVVWKHSDGG\SURGXFWLRQ
LQ6UL/DQNDLVERXQGWRLQFUHDVHIXUWKHULQWLPH
WRFRPHZLWKWKHGHYHORSPHQWZRUNHQYLVDJHG
LQ1RUWKDQG(DVWHUQSURYLQFHV



,Q 6UL /DQND ULFH KXVN JHQHUDWHG DV D UDZ


PDWHULDO LV SUHGRPLQDQWO\ XVHG ZLWKLQ WKH ULFH
PLOOLQJ SURFHVV DV WKH SULPDU\ HQHUJ\ VRXUFH
IRU SDUERLOLQJ RI SDGG\ $OVR VXEVWDQWLDO
TXDQWLW\ RI ULFH KXVN LV EXUQW LQ RSHQ KHDS
YLOODJH EXUQLQJ PHWKRG DW D WHPSHUDWXUH
UDQJLQJ IURP & WR & DV D ZD\ RI
GLVSRVDO 7KLV XQFRQWUROOHG EXUQLQJ LV RIWHQ
FRQVLGHUHG DV WKH PRVW FRVWHIIHFWLYH GLVSRVDO
PHWKRGIRUULFHKXVNDVKQRWRQO\LQ6UL/DQND
EXW DOVR LQ ,QGLD 7KLV VHDVRQDO DQG KLJKO\
ORFDOLVHG PDVVLYH EXUQLQJ JHQHUDWHV H[FHVVLYH
DLU SROOXWLRQ WKDW LQYDULDEO\ ORZHUV DLU TXDOLW\
LQ WKH HQYLURQPHQW :KHQ WKH KXVN LV
FRQYHUWHG WR DVK E\ XQFRQWUROOHG EXUQLQJ
EHORZ & WKH LQFLQHUDWLRQ LV QRW FRPSOHWHG
DQG FRQVLGHUDEOH DPRXQW RI XQEXUQW FDUERQ LV
(QJ 'U  '$5 'RODJH %6F (QJ 0RUDWXZD &(QJ
),( 6UL /DQND   06F 5HDGLQJ  0$ &RORPER  0%$
6-3 '%$ 8QL6$ 6HQLRU/HFWXUHU'HSDUWPHQWRI&LYLO
(QJLQHHULQJ7KH2SHQ8QLYHUVLW\RI6UL/DQND
.0\OYDJDQDP%7HFK (QJ 7KH2SHQ8QLYHUVLW\RI6UL
/DQND
3 0D\RRUDWKDQ 8QGHUJUDGXDWH 'HSDUWPHQW RI &LYLO
(QJLQHHULQJ7KH2SHQ8QLYHUVLW\RI6UL/DQND
6 ,QSDUDWQDP 8QGHUJUDGXDWH 'HSDUWPHQW RI &LYLO
(QJLQHHULQJ7KH2SHQ8QLYHUVLW\RI6UL/DQND


11

ENGINEER


OHIW LQ WKH UHVXOWLQJ DVK *DQHVDQ HW DO  
&DUERQ FRQWHQW LQ H[FHVV RI  SHUFHQW ZDV
H[SHFWHG WR KDYH DQ DGYHUVH HIIHFW RQ
SR]]RODQLF DFWLYLW\ RI 5+$ &RRN   7KH
DVKSURGXFHGE\FRQWUROOHGEXUQLQJRIWKHULFH
KXVN EHWZHHQ & WR & LQFLQHUDWLQJ
WHPSHUDWXUH IRU RQH KRXU WUDQVIRUPV WKH VLOLFD
FRQWHQW RI WKH DVK LQWR DPRUSKRXV SKDVH
%RDWLQJDQG6NHHWH 

7KLVUHVHDUFKSDSHULQYHVWLJDWHVWKHXVHRI5+$
ZKLFK FRQWDLQV SR]]RODQLF DPRUSKRXV VLOLFD
FRPSRQHQWLQIRUPLQJEOHQGHGFHPHQWLQRUGHU
WRSURGXFHFHPHQWVDQGEORFNV$OVRLWDWWHPSWV
WR GHWHUPLQH WKH RSWLPDO OHYHO RI FHPHQW
UHSODFHPHQW WR DWWDLQ D VDWLVIDFWRU\ OHYHO RI
FRPSUHVVLYHVWUHQJWKIRUFHPHQWVDQGEORFNV




UHDFWLRQV RI WKH DPRUSKRXV VLOLFD LQ WKH DVK


ZLWKOLPHWRIRUPFDOFLXPVLOLFDWHK\GUDWHV (O
'DNURXU\DQG*DVVHU $WWKHEDVLVRIWKH
SR]]RODQLF UHDFWLRQ VWDQGV D VLPSOH DFLGEDVH
UHDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ FDOFLXP K\GUR[LGH DOVR
NQRZQ DV 3RUWODQGLWH RU &D 2+   DQG VLOLFLF
DFLG +6L2 RU 6L 2+   7KH VLOLFDWHV IRUPHG
DUHRIWKHNLQGV&6+,DQG&6+,,$FFRUGLQJWR
%RDWLQJ  6NHHWH   WKH UHDFWLRQ PD\ EH
LOOXVWUDWHGDV
&D 2+ 6L2 &6+,&6+,,

:KHUH

&6+, &D26L2 +2 


&6+,, &D26L2 +2 



7KH SURGXFW RI JHQHUDO IRUPXOD &D+6L2  
+2 IRUPHG LV D FDOFLXP VLOLFDWH K\GUDWH DOVR
DEEUHYLDWHGDV&6+LQFHPHQWFKHPLVWQRWDWLRQ
$V WKH GHQVLW\ RI &6+ LV ORZHU WKDQ WKDW RI
SRUWODQGLWH DQG SXUH VLOLFD D FRQVHTXHQFH RI
WKLV UHDFWLRQ LV D VZHOOLQJ RI WKH UHDFWLRQ
SURGXFWV 7KLV UHDFWLRQ PD\ DOVR RFFXU ZLWK
WLPH LQ FRQFUHWH EHWZHHQ DONDOLQH FHPHQW SRUH
ZDWHU DQG SRRUO\FU\VWDOOLQH VLOLFD DJJUHJDWHV
7KLV GHOD\HG SURFHVV LV DOVR NQRZQ DV DONDOL
VLOLFDUHDFWLRQRUDONDOLDJJUHJDWHUHDFWLRQDQG
PD\ VHULRXVO\ GDPDJH FRQFUHWH VWUXFWXUHV
EHFDXVH WKH UHVXOWLQJ YROXPHWULF H[SDQVLRQ LV
DOVRUHVSRQVLEOHIRUVSDOOLQJDQGGHFUHDVHRIWKH
FRQFUHWHVWUHQJWK

/LWHUDWXUHUHYLHZ



5+$LVDSR]]RODQZKLFKZKHQSURSHUO\EXUQW
KDV KLJK 6L2 FRQWHQW DQG FDQ EH XVHG DV D
FRQFUHWH DGPL[WXUH $ SR]]RODQ LV D PDWHULDO
ZKLFK ZKHQ FRPELQHG ZLWK FDOFLXP
K\GUR[LGH H[KLELWV FHPHQWLWLRXV SURSHUWLHV
5+$ H[KLELWV KLJK SR]]RODQLF FKDUDFWHULVWLFV
DQG FRQWULEXWHV WR KLJK VWUHQJWK DQG KLJK
LPSHUPHDELOLW\ RI FRQFUHWH 3R]]RODQLF
PDWHULDOV DUH VLOLFHRXV RU VLOLFHRXV DQG
DOXPLQRXV PDWHULDOV ZKLFK LQ WKHPVHOYHV
SRVVHVVOLWWOHRUQRFHPHQWLWLRXVYDOXHEXWZLOO
LQ ILQHO\ GLYLGHG IRUP DQG LQ WKH SUHVHQFH RI
PRLVWXUH FKHPLFDOO\ UHDFW ZLWK FDOFLXP
K\GUR[LGH OLEHUDWHG RQ K\GUDWLRQ DW RUGLQDU\
WHPSHUDWXUH WR IRUP FRPSRXQGV SRVVHVVLQJ
FHPHQWLWLRXV SURSHUWLHV 6KHWW\  
3R]]RODQV SOD\ DQ LPSRUWDQW UROH ZKHQ DGGHG
WR 3RUWODQG FHPHQW EHFDXVH WKH\ XVXDOO\
LQFUHDVHWKHPHFKDQLFDOVWUHQJWKDQGGXUDELOLW\
RI FRQFUHWH VWUXFWXUHV ,VDLD HW DO  
$FFRUGLQJ WR 6KHWW\   3R]]RODQLF
PDWHULDOV FDQ EH GLYLGHG LQWR WZR JURXSV
QDWXUDO SR]]RODQD &OD\ DQG 6KDOHV 2SDOLQF
&KHUWV'LDWRPDFHRXV(DUWK9ROFDQLF7XIIVDQG
3XPLFLWHV  DQG DUWLILFLDO SR]]RODQD )O\ DVK
%ODVWIXUQDFHVODJ6LOLFDIXPH5LVN +XVN$VK
0HWDNDROLQH6XUNKL 

*DQHVDQ HW DO   XQGHUWRRN D VWXG\ WR


DVVHVV WKH RSWLPDO OHYHO RI UHSODFHPHQW IRU
VWUHQJWK DQG SHUPHDELOLW\ SURSHUWLHV RI
FRQFUHWHSURGXFHGXVLQJ5+$EOHQGHGFHPHQW
,Q WKLV VWXG\ H[SHULPHQWV ZHUH FDUULHG RXW LQ
WZRSKDVHVDVSHUVWDQGDUGWHVWSURFHGXUHV,Q
WKH ILUVW SKDVH WKH WHVWV WR GHWHUPLQH FKHPLFDO
FRPSRVLWLRQ
SK\VLFDO
SURSHUWLHV
DQG
FKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQRI5+$ZHUHFDUULHGRXW7KLV
DOVR LQFOXGHG WHVWV IRU HYDOXDWLRQ RI VWDQGDUG
FRQVLVWHQF\ LQLWLDO VHWWLQJ WLPH ILQDO VHWWLQJ
WLPHDQGFRPSUHVVLYHVWUHQJWKRI5+$EOHQGHG
FHPHQWV,QWKHVHFRQGSKDVHWHVWVZHUHFDUULHG
RXW RQ FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK VSOLWWLQJ WHQVLOH
VWUHQJWK ZDWHU DEVRUSWLRQ FRHIILFLHQW RI ZDWHU
DEVRUSWLRQVRUSWLYLW\UHVLVWDQFHWRFKORULGHLRQ
SHQHWUDWLRQ DQG GLIIXVLRQ FRHIILFLHQW 7KH
VLJQLILFDQW IHDWXUH RI WKLV VWXG\ LV WKDW WKH ULFH
KXVNUHVLGXHWKDWZDVILUHGXQFRQWUROODEO\ZDV
FROOHFWHGIURPPLOOVDQGSODFHGLQWKHIXUQDFH

7KH W\SH RI 5+$ VXLWDEOH IRU WKH SR]]RODQLF


DFWLRQLVDPRUSKRXVUDWKHUWKDQFU\VWDOOLQHDVK
,WKDVEHHQDGHTXDWHO\SURYHQWKDWWKHVLOLFDLQ
WKH DVK XQGHUJRHV VWUXFWXUDO WUDQVIRUPDWLRQV
XQGHU YDULHV WHPSHUDWXUH FRQGLWLRQV 7KH
3R]]RODQLF UHDFWLRQ SULPDULO\ RFFXUV EHWZHHQ
DPRUSKRXV VLOLFHRXV PDWHULDOV QDPHO\
SR]]RODQ DQGVODNHGOLPH FDOFLXPK\GUR[LGH 
WRIRUPFDOFLXPVLOLFDWHK\GUDWHV7KHFKHPLVWU\
RI ULFH KXVN DVK FHPHQW LQYROYHV WKH FKHPLFDO

ENGINEER

7KH FRQWUROOHG FRPEXVWLRQ RI ULFH KXVN LV VR


LPSRUWDQW WKDW VWXGLHV KDYH EHHQ GHGLFDWHG WR

12


LQYHVWLJDWHWKHXVHRIQHZWHFKQLTXHV,QVXFKD
VWXG\ 1HKGL HW DO   GHYHORSHG D QHZ
WHFKQRORJ\ IRU WKH SURGXFWLRQ RI 5+$ EDVHG
RQ D 7UREHG UHDFWRU WKDW IDFLOLWDWHG SURGXFLQJ
KLJKO\ UHDFWLYH 5+$ ZLWK PXFK ORZHU FDUERQ
FRQWHQW WKDQ WKDW RI 5+$ SURGXFHG XVLQJ
IOXLGL]HG EHGV 7KH 5+$ SURGXFHG XVLQJ WKH
QHZWHFKQLTXHUHTXLUHGOHVVJULQGLQJWLPHWKDQ
WKDW SURGXFHG LQ D IOXLGLVHG EHG DQG DOVR GLG
QRW VXEVWDQWLDOO\ LQFUHDVH WKH ZDWHU GHPDQG
DQGWKHVXSHUSODVWLFL]HUUHTXLUHPHQW

7KHUH DUH HYLGHQFHV WR WKH IDFW WKH UHVHDUFK
LQVWLWXWHV LQ 6UL /DQND KDG WKH GHVLUH DQG
FRPPLWPHQW WR H[SORLW WKH 5+$ XVH IRU
LQGXVWULDOSXUSRVHV,Q&H\ORQ,QVWLWXWHRI
6FLHQWLILF DQG ,QGXVWULDO 5HVHDUFK &,6,5 
FRPSLOHG D UHSRUW RQ LQGXVWULDO XVHV RI ULFH
KXVNDVKLQ6UL/DQND &,6,5 7KH5HSRUW
UHFRPPHQGV WKH XVH RI 5+$ DV D VXLWDEOH
EXLOGLQJ PDWHULDO GXH WR LWV FHPHQWLWLRXV
SURSHUWLHV 0XFK ODWHU LQ  WKH 5HVHDUFK
DQG 'HYHORSPHQW &HQWUH RI ,QVWLWXWH RI 3RVW
+DUYHVW 7HFKQRORJ\ ,3+7  FRPSLOHG D UHSRUW
RQ 5LFH +XVN DYDLODELOLW\ DQG FRQVXPSWLRQ
SDWWHUQ LQ 6UL /DQND ,3+7   7KH UHSRUW
FRQFOXGHG WKDW DQ DYHUDJH RI  RI ULFH KXVN
SURGXFHG E\ WKH PLOOV LV XVHG DV D IXHO IRU
VWHDPJHQHUDWLRQDQGWKHUHVWLVGLVFDUGHGRQH
ZD\ RI GLVFDUGLQJ LV WKURXJK RSHQ KHDS
EXUQLQJ

,QDUHVHDUFKFDUULHGRXWLQ6UL/DQND %DQGDUD
  LQYHVWLJDWHG WKH IROORZLQJ WKH FULWLFDO
ILULQJ WHPSHUDWXUH DQG WKH LVRWKHUPDO ILULQJ
WLPH VRDNLQJ SHULRG  IRU GLIIHUHQW YDULHWLHV RI
ULFH KXVN DYDLODEOH ORFDOO\ WKH IDFWRUV
IDYRXUDEOH IRU WKH IRUPDWLRQ RI DFWLYH VLOLFD
SUHVHQW LQ WKH DVK ILUHG LQ WKH ODERUDWRU\
IXUQDFH DQG UHODWH WKHVH FRQGLWLRQV ZLWK WKH
ILHOGWULDOVLQRUGHUWRLPSURYHWKHHIILFLHQF\RI
WKH SURGXFWLRQ RI DVK XQGHU ILHOG FRQGLWLRQV
7KH VWXG\ FRQFOXGHV WKDW ILULQJ WHPSHUDWXUH
DQG LVRWKHUPDO ILULQJ WLPH IRU DWWDLQLQJ KLJK
DPRXQW RI DPRUSKRXV VLOLFD LQ ILUHG DVK
GHSHQGV RQ WKH YDULHW\ RI ULFH KXVN DVK 7KH
VWXG\ DOVR UHYHDOV WKDW DV DQ DSSUR[LPDWLRQ D
ILULQJ WHPSHUDWXUH RI & VHHPV WR EH WKH
RSWLPXP IRU WKH IRXU 6UL /DQNDQ YDULHWLHV RI
ULFH KXVN DVK H[DPLQHG LQ WKH VWXG\ DQ
LVRWKHUPDOILULQJWLPHRIWRPLQXWHVLVWR
EH DGRSWHG EDVHG RQ WKH NQRZOHGJH RI WKH
YDULHW\ RI ULFH KXVN $FFRUGLQJ WR WKH VWXG\
FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK RI PRUWDU FXEHV RI ILYH
EOHQGHG FHPHQW FRPSRVLWLRQV VKRZHG ORZ
HDUO\ VWUHQJWK GHYHORSPHQWV DV FRPSDUHG WR
WKRVH RI 23& FRQWURO PRUWDU WKH FRPSRVLWLRQV
 DQG  5+$23&  ZHUH WKH PRVW

IDYRXUDEOH EOHQGV LQ WHUPV RI VWUHQJWK


GHYHORSPHQW +RZHYHU LQ WKLV VWXG\ 5+$
REWDLQHG IURP ULFH PLOOV ZHUH IXUWKHU
LQFLQHUDWHG LQ DQ HOHFWULF PXIIOH IXUQDFH DW
WHPSHUDWXUHV YDU\LQJ IURP & WR & IRU
GXUDWLRQV RI  PLQXWHV DQG RQH KRXU )XUWKHU
LQFLQHUDWLRQ RI 5+$ REWDLQHG IURP ULFH PLOOV
XVLQJ IXUQDFHV RSHUDWHG HOHFWULFDOO\ RU
RWKHUZLVHLVREYLRXVO\DFRVWO\DIIDLUDQGVXFK
FRVWV PD\ QRW ZDUUDQW WKH XVH RI 5+$ DV D
SR]]RODQ

7KH IRUHJRLQJ GLVFXVVLRQ H[SODLQV WKDW LW LV
SHUWLQHQW WR FRQGXFW D VWXG\ LQ RUGHU WR
LQYHVWLJDWH SR]]RODQLF FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI
XQWUHDWHG 5+$ LQ WHUPV RI VWUHQJWK
GHYHORSPHQW LQ UHODWLRQ WR WLPH RSWLPDO OHYHO
RI FHPHQW UHSODFHPHQW IRU FRPSUHVVLYH
VWUHQJWK $V WKH LQLWLDO VWHS XVH RI XQWUHDWHG
5+$ LQ FHPHQW PRUWDU LV LQYHVWLJDWHG SULRU WR
WKDW LQ FRQFUHWH VLQFH WKH VWUHQJWK UHTXLUHPHQW
LQ PRUWDU FXEHV LV QRW DV FUXFLDO DV WKDW LQ
FRQFUHWH




0HWKRGVDQG0DWHULDOV



0DWHULDOVXVHG

7KH 23& FRQIRUPLQJ WR 6UL /DQNDQ VWDQGDUG
6/6  3DUW   ZDV XWLOLVHG LQ SUHSDULQJ
WKHELQGHU*UDGHGULYHUVDQGSDVVLQJ WKURXJK
 PP VLHYH ZLWK ILQHQHVV PRGXOXV RI 
EHWZHHQ VLHYH VL]HV RI PP DQG  PLFUR
PHWHUV DQG VSHFLILF JUDYLW\ RI  ZDV XVHG DV
ILQH DJJUHJDWH 7KH 5+$ VDPSOHV ZHUH
REWDLQHG IURP ERLOHU IXUQDFHV IURP WKUHH ULFH
PLOOVORFDWHGLQWKUHHGLIIHUHQWGLVWULFWVQDPHO\
9DYXQL\D $PSDUD DQG %DWWLFDORH $W WKH HDFK
ORFDWLRQWKHVDPSOHVZHUHFROOHFWHGIURPWKUHH
SODFHV RI WKH KHDS ZKLFK ZHUH ODWHU PL[HG LQ
RUGHUWRPDNHLWPRUHUHSUHVHQWDWLYH6LQFHWKH
VDPSOHVFRQWDLQHGILUHGULFHKXVNDVKWKDW KDG
EHHQ EXQW LQ DQ XQFRQWUROOHG ZD\ WKH\ ZHUH
EODFN LQ FRORXU REYLRXVO\ GXH WR WKH SUHVHQFH
RI H[FHVVLYH DPRXQW RI FDUERQ FRQWHQW 7KH
5+$ REWDLQHG LQ WKLV PDQQHU ZDV QRW IXUWKHU
EXUQW LQ ODERUDWRU\ IXUQDFH 6XFK XQWUHDWHG
5+$ ZDV XVHG LQ SUHSDULQJ FHPHQW PRUWDU
FXEHVQHHGHGIRUWHVWLQJ



3K\VLFDODQDO\VLVRI23&DQG5+$

3DUWLFOHVL]HGLVWULEXWLRQRI23&DQG5+$ZDV
GHWHUPLQHG WKURXJK SDUWLFOH VL]H DQDO\VHU
6SHFLILF VXUIDFH DUHD RI 23& ZDV PHDVXUHG DV
SHU 6/6  3DUW   XVLQJ %ODLQV DLU
SHUPLVVLELOLW\ DSSDUDWXV 2WKHU LPSRUWDQW

13

ENGINEER


SK\VLFDO SURSHUWLHV VXFK DV VSHFLILF JUDYLW\
EXON GHQVLW\ DQG ILQHQHVV RI 23& DQG 5+$
ZHUHHYDOXDWHGDVSHU6/63DUW

 %OHQGHGFHPHQWV

5+$ EOHQGHG FHPHQWV ZHUH SUHSDUHG E\
UHSODFLQJ 23& ZLWK GLIIHUHQW DPRXQW RI 5+$
DQGE\ZHLJKWRIFHPHQW LQ
GU\ FRQGLWLRQ 7KH PL[WXUHV ZHUH WKRURXJKO\
KRPRJHQLVHGDQGNHSWLQVHDOHGFRQWDLQHUV

 &RPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK RI EOHQGHG FHPHQW
PRUWDUFXEHV

7KH FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK RI 5+$ EOHQGHG
FHPHQW PRUWDU FXEHV KDYLQJ XQLIRUP VL]H  RI
 [[ PP LQ ELQGHUVDQG UDWLRV RI 
DQG  DQG LQ ZDWHUELQGHU UDWLRV RI  
DQGZDVGHWHUPLQHGDIWHUDQGGD\V
RIPRLVWXUHFXULQJDVSHU6/63DUW

 0L[ SURSRUWLRQV DQG FDVWLQJ RI PRUWDU
VSHFLPHQV

,W ZDV GHFLGHG WR JR IRU IRXU GLIIHUHQW FHPHQW
UHSODFHPHQW OHYHOV LQ SUHSDULQJ WKH EOHQGHG
FHPHQW ZKHUH WKH SURSRUWLRQ RI 5+$ UDQJLQJ
IURP    DQG  E\ ZHLJKW RI
FHPHQW7KH5+$E\ZHLJKWRIFHPHQWZDV
WKH FRQWURO VDPSOH ZKLFK ZDV DGRSWHG IRU
FRPSDUDWLYH SXUSRVHV 7KH UHSODFHPHQW RI
FHPHQWZLWK5+$ZDVPDGHE\ZHLJKWLQRUGHU
WR FLUFXPYHQW SRVVLEOH HUURUV GXH WR WKH ORZ
VSHFLILF JUDYLW\ RI 5+$ 7KH UHVHDUFK
SURJUDPPH DGRSWHG WZR ELQGHUVDQG PL[
SURSRUWLRQVQDPHO\DQG)RUHDFKRIWKH
UHVXOWLQJ HLJKW GLIIHUHQW PL[ SURSRUWLRQV WKUHH
IXUWKHUPL[FRPELQDWLRQV ZHUHSUHSDUHGXVLQJ
ZDWHUELQGHU UDWLRV QDPHO\   DQG 
$FFRUGLQJO\  GLIIHUHQW PRUWDU PL[
FRPELQDWLRQV ZHUH SUHSDUHG DQG IURP HDFK
PL[ SURSRUWLRQ VL[ FXEHV ZHUH FDVW WZR FXEHV
IRUHDFKWHVWRIFRPSUHVVLYHVWUHQJWKDWGD\V
GD\VDQGGD\V7KLVUHVXOWHGLQFDVWLQJRI
 [[[[  PRUWDUFXEHV

7KH 5+$ DQG FHPHQW ZHUH PL[HG WKRURXJKO\
WR IRUP D KRPRJHQHRXV EOHQG ZKLFK LQ WXUQ
ZDV PL[HG ZLWK ILQH DJJUHJDWHV $ PHDVXUHG
TXDQWLW\ RI ZDWHU EDVHG RQ WKH ZDWHUELQGHU
UDWLR ZDVDGGHGWRWKLVPL[WXUHDQGZDVPL[HG
WKRURXJKO\ ZLWK D VKRYHO XQWLO LW UHDFKHV WKH
UHTXLUHG ZRUNDELOLW\ 7KHQ WKH PL[WXUH ZDV
SODFHG LQ D PRXOG RI VL]H [[PP LQ
WKUHH OD\HUV HDFK OD\HU ZDV FRPSDFWHG ZLWK D
PP GLDPHWHU 06 URG ZLWK  EORZV 6RRQ
DIWHUFDVWLQJHDFK PRUWDU FXEHZDVODEHOOHGVR

ENGINEER

WKDWWKH\FDQEHHDVLO\LGHQWLILHGODWHU$IWHU
KRXUV WKH VSHFLPHQV ZHUH GHPRXOGHG DQG
NHSWLQDZDWHUEDWKIRUGD\VRUGD\VRU
GD\VGHSHQGLQJRQWKHSHULRGDIWHUZKLFKWHVW
LV WR EH SHUIRUPHG 7KH WHVW IRU FRPSUHVVLYH
VWUHQJWKRI WKH PRUWDUFXEHVZDVSHUIRUPHGDW
WKHVSHFLILFWLPHXVLQJWKHN1FRPSUHVVLRQ
WHVWLQJPDFKLQH

$GGLWLRQDO VHW RI   [  [  [   FHPHQW
PRUWDUFXEHV ZHUHFDVWLQRUGHUWRWHVWLIWKHUH
ZDV DQ\ YDULDWLRQ LQ FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK
ZKHQ 5+$ REWDLQHG IURP GLIIHUHQW
JHRJUDSKLFDO DUHDV ZHUH XVHG 7KH WHVW FXEHV
ZHUH SUHSDUHG RQO\ IRU WKH PL[ SURSRUWLRQ 
ELQGHUVDQGUDWLRDQGZDWHUELQGHUUDWLRRI





5HVXOWVDQG'LVFXVVLRQ

3HUFHQWDJHILQHUWKDQ


3K\VLFDODQDO\VLVRI23&DQG5+$

7KH SDUWLFOH VL]H GLVWULEXWLRQ 36'  FXUYHV RI
23& DQG 5+$ DUH VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH  7KH
SDUWLFOHV RI 5+$ DUH QHDUO\ IRXU WLPHV FRDUVHU
WKDQWKRVHRI23&DQGDUHZHOOJUDGHGLQWKHLU
GLVWULEXWLRQ 7DEOH  GHSLFWV WKH 3K\VLFDO
SURSHUWLHV RI ERWK 23& DQG 5+$ 7KH EXON
GHQVLW\VSHFLILFJUDYLW\DQGPHDQJUDLQVL]HRI
5+$DUHIRXQGWREHJUHDWHUWKDQWKRVHRI23&




&HPHQW



5+$












3DUWLFOHVL]HLQPLFURPHWHU

)LJXUH3DUWLFOHVL]HGLVWULEXWLRQFXUYHVRI
FHPHQWDQG5+$


 &RPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK RI EOHQGHG FHPHQW
PRUWDUFXEHV

7KH FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK RI 5+$ EOHQGHG
FHPHQWPRUWDUVDUHVKRZQLQ7DEOH7KHPDLQ
REMHFWLYH RI WKH VWXG\ LV WR GHWHUPLQH WKH
VXLWDELOLW\ RI XVH RI 5+$ LQ PDNLQJ FHPHQW
VDQG EORFNV 7KH XVH RI  ELQGHUVDQG UDWLR
ZKLFKLQYDULDEO\DQGERXQGWRSURGXFHJUHDWHU
FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK IRU WKH UHTXLUHPHQW LV
DOVR H[SHQVLYH ,Q WKLV UHVHDUFK WKH WHVWV ZHUH
SHUIRUPHG IRU ERWK WKHVH PL[ SURSRUWLRQV LQ
RUGHU IRU WKH EHWWHU FRPSDULVRQ RI YDOXHV $
VLPSOH VFDQQLQJ RYHU 7DEOH  LV HQRXJK WR VD\
WKDW ELQGHUVDQG UDWLR RI  SURGXFHV

14

15

ENGINEER

&RPSUHVVLYHVWUHQJWK 0SD 


$OWKRXJK WKH YDULDWLRQ RI FRPSUHVVLYH
VWUHQJWKLQUHODWLRQWRFHPHQWUHSODFHPHQW
OHYHOV LV VRPHZKDW VLPLODU WR WKH WKUHH
ZDWHU ELQGHU UDWLRV WKH PDJQLWXGH RI WKH
FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK LV KLJKHU IRU ELQGHU
VDQGUDWLRWKDQIRU:LWKUHVSHFWWR
ERWKELQGHUVDQGUDWLRVDQGFHPHQW
UHSODFHPHQW OHYHO RI   SURGXFHV WKH
KLJKHVWFRPSUHVVLYHVWUHQJWK


UDWLR LV  7KH KLJKHVW YDOXHV IRU


FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK DUH REVHUYHG IRU
VDPSOHV FXUHG IRU  GD\V DW  FHPHQW
UHSODFHPHQWOHYHOZKLFKDUH03DDQG
03DIRUELQGHUVDQGUDWLRVDQG
UHVSHFWLYHO\ $QRWKHU QRWDEOH REVHUYDWLRQ
LV WKDW ZKHQ FHPHQW UHSODFHPHQW OHYHO LV
GLVUHJDUGLQJWKHPDJQLWXGHRIZDWHU
ELQGHU UDWLR FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK UHDFKHV
YHU\ORZYDOXHVVXFKDV03DDQG
03D IRU ELQGHUVDQG UDWLRV RI  DQG 
UHVSHFWLYHO\ 0RUHRYHU LW LV REVHUYHG WKDW
WKH YDULDWLRQ LQ FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK LQ
UHODWLRQ WR ZDWHUELQGHU UDWLRV   RU
 IRUDJLYHQFHPHQWUHSODFHPHQWOHYHOLV
QRWVLJQLILFDQWIRUERWKELQGHUVDQGUDWLRV

)LJXUH  VKRZV WKH YDULDWLRQ RI
FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK RI PRUWDU FXEHV LQ
UHODWLRQ WR  GLIIHUHQW FHPHQW UHSODFHPHQWV
OHYHOV IRU D JLYHQ ZDWHUELQGHU UDWLR
$FFRUGLQJ WR WKH ILJXUH WKH SDWWHUQ RI
YDULDWLRQ RI FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK LQ
UHODWLRQ WR FHPHQW UHSODFHPHQW OHYHO LV
VLPLODU IRU DOO WKUHH ZDWHUELQGHU UDWLRV
+HQFH LW FDQ EH GHGXFHG WKDW SDWWHUQ RI
FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK YDULDWLRQ LV QRW
GHSHQGHQWRQWKHZDWHUELQGHUUDWLR

:% 



:% 



:% 












&HPHQWUHSODFHPHQWOHYHO 



)LJXUH&RPSUHVVLYHVWUHQJWKYDULDWLRQ
LQUHODWLRQWRFHPHQWUHSODFHPHQWOHYHOV
 FHPHQWELQGHUUDWLR 

7KH ILJXUHV DOVR VKRZ WKDW ZKHQ FHPHQW
UHSODFHPHQW OHYHO JUDGXDOO\ LQFUHDVHV
EH\RQG   WKH FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK
VWHDGLO\GHFUHDVHV
:% 

:% 

:% 


:% 



:% 


&RPSUHVVLYHVWUHQJWK 0SD 

&RPSUHVVLYHVWUHQJWK 0SD 






:% 









&HPHQWUHSODFHPHQWOHYHO 



)LJXUH&RPSUHVVLYHVWUHQJWKYDULDWLRQ
LQUHODWLRQWRFHPHQWUHSODFHPHQWOHYHOV
 ELQGHUVDQGUDWLR 


,W LV LPSRUWDQW WR FORVHO\ H[DPLQH WKH
YDULDWLRQLQFRPSUHVVLYHVWUHQJWKDWDJLYHQ
FHPHQW UHSODFHPHQW OHYHO ZLWK UHVSHFW WR
WKHWKUHHZDWHUELQGHUUDWLRV)LJXUHVDQG
 UHSUHVHQW IRU GLIIHUHQW FHPHQW
UHSODFHPHQW OHYHOV WKH FRPSUHVVLYH
VWUHQJWK LQ UHODWLRQ WR GLIIHUHQW ZDWHU
ELQGHUUDWLRVIRUELQGHUVDQGUDWLRVDQG
 UHVSHFWLYHO\ 7KH KLJKHVW FRPSUHVVLYH
VWUHQJWK LV VKRZQ DW WKH  FHPHQW
UHSODFHPHQW OHYHO ZKHQ WKH ZDWHUELQGHU






:% 

:% 

:% 









ENGINEER



&HPHQWUHSODFHPHQWOHYHO

 )LJXUH&RPSUHVVLYHVWUHQJWKYDULDWLRQLQ
UHODWLRQWRFHPHQWUHSODFHPHQWOHYHOVDQG

ZDWHUELQGHUUDWLR ELQGHUVDQGUDWLR 

&RPSUHVVLYHVWUHQJWK 0SD 

16



&HPHQWUHSODFHPHQWOHYHO 



)LJXUH&RPSUHVVLYHVWUHQJWKYDULDWLRQLQ
UHODWLRQWRFHPHQWUHSODFHPHQWOHYHOVDQG
ZDWHUELQGHUUDWLR ELQGHUVDQGUDWLR 


&RPSUHVVLYHVWUHQJWK 0SD 
















:%UDWLR



)LJXUH&RPSUHVVLYHVWUHQJWKYDULDWLRQ
LQUHODWLRQWRZDWHUELQGHUUDWLR

&RPSUHVVLYH6WUHQJWK 03D 


,Q UHVHDUFK VWXGLHV *DQHVDQ HW DO  
%DQGDUD FRQGXFWHGWRLQYHVWLJDWHWKH
FRPSUHVVLYHVWUHQJWKRIFRQFUHWHRUPRUWDU
PDGH ZLWK ELQGHUV ZKHUH 5+$ LV XVHG WR
UHSODFH FHPHQW WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI
VWUHQJWK LQ UHODWLRQ WR DJH LV D PDMRU
FRQVLGHUDWLRQ)LJXUHVKRZVWKHYDULDWLRQ
LQFRPSUHVVLYHVWUHQJWKZLWKUHVSHFWWRDJH
RI PRUWDU LQ GD\V IRU GLIIHUHQW FHPHQW
UHSODFHPHQWOHYHOV$FFRUGLQJWR )LJXUH
IRU XQWUHDWHG 5+$ WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI
FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK IRU  FHPHQW
UHSODFHPHQW RU   FHPHQW  DQG IRU 
FHPHQWUHSODFHPHQWOHYHOV RUFHPHQW 
LV YHU\ PXFK VLPLODU 7KH JDLQ LQ
FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK EHWZHHQ  GD\V DQG
 GD\V LV  03D DQG  03D IRU
UHSODFHPHQWOHYHOVDQGUHVSHFWLYHO\
+RZHYHUIRUFHPHQWUHSODFHPHQWOHYHOV RI
 DQG  WKH FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWKV
VKRZ D UDSLG UDWH RI JURZWK 7KH JDLQ LQ
FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK EHWZHHQ  GD\V DQG
 GD\V LV  03D IRU ERWK FHPHQW
UHSODFHPHQWOHYHOVDQG)XUWKHU
GD\V FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK IRU  FHPHQW
UHSODFHPHQWOHYHOLVYHU\PXFKKLJKHUWKDQ
WKRVHIRUERWKFHPHQWUHSODFHPHQWOHYHOVRI
DQG










GD\V

GD\V

GD\V

$JH

 )LJXUH&RPSUHVVLYHVWUHQJWKYDULDWLRQ
 LQUHODWLRQWRDJH

7KHUHIRUH LQ VLWXDWLRQV ZKHUH KLJKHU
UHSODFHPHQWOHYHOVRI5+$DUHDGRSWHGWKLV
ORZ LQLWLDO FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK KDV WR EH
FRQVLGHUHG 7KH )LJXUH  DOVR VKRZV YHU\
FOHDUO\ WKDW E\ DGGLQJ 5+$ E\  LWV

17

FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK FDQ EH LQFUHDVHG


PRUHWKDQWKDWSURGXFHGZLWKFHPHQW
ZKLFK LV D VLJQLILFDQW ILQGLQJ RI WKH VWXG\
7KH DYHUDJH  GD\V DQG  GD\V
FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK RI PRUWDU FXEHV DUH
 03D DQG  03D UHVSHFWLYHO\ 7KLV
LQGLFDWHV WKH LQFUHDVH LQ FRPSUHVVLYH
VWUHQJWKRYHUWKHSHULRGGD\VWRGD\V
LV  ZKLFK LV UHODWLYHO\ D PDUJLQDO
LQFUHDVH

7KH FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWKV ZKHQ FHPHQW
UHSODFHPHQWOHYHOLVZDWHUELQGHUUDWLR
LV  DQG ELQGHUVDQG UDWLR LV  DUH 
DQG  IRU DJHV  GD\V DQG  GD\V
UHVSHFWLYHO\ $FFRUGLQJ WR 6UL /DQND
6WDQGDUG3DUW 6SHFLILFDWLRQVIRU
&HPHQW %ORFNV 3DUW B 5HTXLUHPHQWV  WKH
FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK UHTXLUHG RI VROLG
FHPHQWVDQG EORFNV IRU D VLQJOH VWRUH\ DQG
WZRVWRUH\VIRUPRUWDUGHVLJQDWLRQ FHPHQW
VDQG   RU  DUH  DQG  03D
UHVSHFWLYHO\ +HQFH LW FDQ EH VDLG WKDW D
FHPHQW UHSODFHPHQW OHYHO RI  ZDWHU
ELQGHUUDWLRRIDQGELQGHUVDQGUDWLRRI
 DIIRUGV D VXLWDEOH PL[ VSHFLILFDWLRQ IRU
FHPHQWVDQGEORFNVWREHXVHGIRUVLQJOHRU
WZRVWRU\EXLOGLQJV$OVRLWFDQEHGHGXFHG
WKDW LQ WKH XVH RI EOHQGHG FHPHQW IRU WKH
VDPH UHTXLUHPHQW WKH RSWLPDO OHYHO RI
FHPHQWUHSODFHPHQWLV

9DULDWLRQLQFRPSUHVVLYHVWUHQJWKLQ
PRUWDUPDGHZLWK5+$JHRJUDSKLFDOO\

7DEOHGHSLFWVWKHUHVXOWV REWDLQHGIRUWKH
FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK RI PRUWDU FXEHV FDVW
XVLQJ WKH 5+$ REWDLQHG IURP WKH WKUHH
JHRJUDSKLF DUHDV QDPHO\ %DWWLFDORD
$PSDUD 9DYXQL\D )RU WKH SXUSRVH RI
FRPSDULVRQ LI ZH FRQVLGHU FRPSUHVVLYH
VWUHQJWKV DW  GD\V DW  FHPHQW
UHSODFHPHQWOHYHO IRUELQGHUVDQGUDWLRRI
 DQG ZDWHUELQGHU UDWLR RI   IRU WKH
WKUHH DUHDV %DWWLFDORD $PSDUD DQG
9DYXQL\D DUH   DQG  03D
UHVSHFWLYHO\ 7KLV LQGLFDWHV WKDW WKH
YDULDWLRQLQFRPSUHVVLYHVWUHQJWKRIPRUWDU
FXEHV FDVW ZLWK EOHQGHG FHPHQW RI ZKLFK
5+$ REWDLQHG IURP GLIIHUHQW DUHDV LV QRW
VLJQLILFDQW

&RVW$QDO\VLV

,Q\HDUWKHDQQXDOSDGG\SURGXFWLRQ
LQ 6UL /DQND LV  PLOOLRQ PHWULF WRQV

ENGINEER

FDQ FRQYLQFH RI FRXUVH LQ D UXGLPHQWDU\


PDQQHU WKRVH LQ DUHDV ZKHUH SHRSOH KDYH
DFFHVVWR5+$EOHQGLQJ5+$LQFHPHQWLV
DYLDEOHDQGHFRQRPLFDORSWLRQ


$QQXDOULFHKXVNSURGXFWLRQLQ6UL/DQNDLV
[PLOOLRQPHWULFWRQVZKLFKPHDQV
 PLOOLRQ PHWULF WRQV DVVXPLQJ KXVN
IRUPVRISDGG\JUDLQLQZHLJKW

$QQXDO 5+$ SURGXFWLRQ LQ 6UL /DQND LV
 [  ZKLFK PHDQV  PLOOLRQ
PHWULF WRQV DVVXPLQJ KXVNV ZKHQ EXUQW
UHGXFHVLQZHLJKWWRRIKXVNZHLJKW

7DEOH&RPSUHVVLYHVWUHQJWKRIVDPSOHV
RI2EWDLQHGRI'LIIHUHQW'LVWULFWV

'LVWULFW

%DWWLFDO
RD

$PSDU
D

9DYXQL
\D


0L[
SURSRUWLRQV
23&
 











5+$
 













&RPSUHVVLYH
VWUHQJWK 03D 


GD\V












GD\V












GD\V











%LQGHU6DQG DQG:DWHU%LQGHU 



6LQFH RQH PHWULF WRQ LV NJ 5+$
SURGXFHG LQ D \HDU LV  PLOOLRQ NJ
$OWHUQDWLYHO\ WKH HTXLYDOHQW QXPEHU RI
NJ EDJV 5+$ WKDW FDQ EH SURGXFHG DUH
 EDJV ,Q D VFHQDULR ZKHUH
FRPSOHWH VWRFN RI 5+$ LV XVDEOH DV DQ
DOWHUDWLYH PDWHULDO WKH SRVVLEOH VDYLQJ IRU
WKH FRXQWU\ LV 5V [  
5V 7KH SULFH RI FHPHQW LV
DVVXPHGWREH5V+HQFHSURYLGHGWKDW
ZLGHVSUHDG DYDLODELOLW\ RI 5+$ FDQ EH
DWWDLQHG WKH JURVV VDYLQJV IRU QDWLRQDO
HFRQRP\ LV DSSUR[LPDWHO\ 6UL /DQNDQ
UXSHHV  ELOOLRQ 1HYHUWKHOHVV WKH QHW
VDYLQJV ZRXOG EH VRPHZKDW OHVV VLQFH WKH
DQDO\VLV KDV H[FOXGHG WKH SDFNDJLQJ
WUDQVSRUWDWLRQ DQG KDQGOLQJ FKDUJHV IRU
5+$

7KH QXPEHU RI  [ [ PP FHPHQW
VDQGEORFNVWKDWFDQEHSURGXFHGZLWKRQH
EDJRIFHPHQWZLWKRXWEOHQGLQJRI5+$LV
 7KH QXPEHU RI  [ [ PP
FHPHQW VDQG EORFNV WKDW FDQ EH SURGXFHG
ZLWK RQH EDJ RI FHPHQW XVLQJ 5+$ LQ WKH
EOHQG LV  DVVXPLQJ 5+$ SHUFHQWDJH LQ
ELQGHU LV  7KLV LQGLFDWHV WKDW ZLWK RQH
EDJ RI FHPHQW DGGLWLRQDO  FHPHQW VDQG
EORFNV FDQ EH PDQXIDFWXUHG 7KLV H[DPSOH


ENGINEER

&RQFOXVLRQV


  5LFH KXVN DVK REWDLQHG IURP ULFH PLOOV
DVLWLVFDQEHEOHQGHGZLWKFHPHQWLQRUGHU
WR PDQXIDFWXUH FHPHQW VDQG EORFNV )RU
DQ\ JLYHQ FRPELQDWLRQ ZKHQ FHPHQW
UHSODFHPHQW OHYHO LQFUHDVHV IURP  WR 
WKH FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK JUDGXDOO\
LQFUHDVHVDQGWKHUHDIWHUVWHDGLO\GHFUHDVHV

  7KH ELQGHUVDQG UDWLR RI  LV
VDWLVIDFWRU\ DQG KDV FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWKV
RI03DDQG03DIRUDQDJHRI
GD\V DQG  GD\V UHVSHFWLYHO\ 7KH
PLQLPXPVWUHQJWKVSHFLILHGLQWKH6/6
3DUW   IRU FHPHQW VDQG EORFNV LV 
03D+HQFHFHPHQWUHSODFHPHQWOHYHO
LV WKH RSWLPXP IRU PDNLQJ FHPHQW VDQG
EORFNV

  7KH LQIOXHQFH RI ZDWHUELQGHU UDWLR RQ
WKH FRPSUHKHQVLYH VWUHQJWK SDUWLFXODUO\
ZLWKLQWKHUDQJHRIWRLVIRXQGWREH
PDUJLQDO

 7KH LQFUHDVH LQ FRPSUHVVLYH VWUHQJWK
RYHUWKHSHULRGIURPGD\VXQWLOGD\VLV
RQO\  SHUFHQW ZKLFK LV RQO\ D PDUJLQDO
LQFUHDVH 7KLV LQGLFDWHV FRPSUHVVLYH
VWUHQJWKVUHDFKHVDVDWLVIDFWRU\OHYHOZLWKLQ
DVKRUWSHULRG

  7KH GHYHORSPHQW RI FRPSUHVVLYH
VWUHQJWKIRUERWKFHPHQWUHSODFHPHQWOHYHOV
RI  DQG  LV VORZHU WKDQ WKDW IRU
HLWKHU RQO\FHPHQWLQWKHELQGHU RU

 7KHYDULDWLRQRIFRPSUHVVLYHVWUHQJWKRI
PRUWDUFXEHVFDVWZLWK5+$REWDLQHGIURP
GLVWULFWV %DWWLFDOR $PSDUD DQG 9DYXQL\D
DPRQJ WKH GLVWULFWV LV DOPRVW QHJOLJLEOH
7KLV LPSOLHV D VLPLODULW\ LQ WKH GHJUHH RI
LQFLQHUDWLRQ RI SDGG\ KXVNV DW PLOOV DQG
WKHW\SHVRISDGG\JURZQLQWKHVHDUHDV

  7KH WRWDO TXDQWLW\ RI 5+$ SURGXFHG LQ
6UL/DQNDLVHVWLPDWHGWREHPLOOLRQNJ
RUDOWHUQDWLYHO\DQXPEHURIILIW\
NLORJUDPPH EDJV ,Q D VFHQDULR ZKHUH DOO
WKH5+$FDQEHSXWLQWRXVHWKHWRWDOJURVV

18

VDYLQJ WR WKH QDWLRQDO HFRQRP\ LV 5V 


ELOOLRQ

  $W WKH PRPHQW ULFH PLOO RZQHUV KDYH
EHHQ FRPSHOOHG WR GHVWUR\ ULFH KXVN E\
RSHQ KHDS EXUQLQJ 7KLV SURFHVV GHSOHWHV
WKH R[\JHQ TXDQWLW\ LQ WKH DLU DQG VR
HQYLURQPHQWDOO\ YHU\ KD]DUGRXV +HQFH LW
LV D FRORVVDO GDPDJH WR WKH VRFLHW\ LI 5+$
VR SURGXFHG DW D WUHPHQGRXV FRVW WR WKH
HQYLURQPHQW QRW SXW LQWR SURGXFWLYH XVH
,I WKH GHPDQG IRU 5+$ LQFUHDVHV DV
H[SHFWHG ULFH PLOO RZQHUV FDQ DGRSW
WHFKQRORJLFDOO\ DGYDQFHG IXUQDFHV ZKLFK
KHOS WR LQFLQHUDWH ULFH KXVN DW FRQWUROOHG
FRQGLWLRQV







5HIHUHQFHV












,QVWLWXWH RI 3RVW +DUYHVW 7HFKQRORJ\


5HVHDUFK DQG 'HYHORSPHQW &HQWHU
5HSRUW RQ 3DGG\ +XVN $YDLODELOLW\ DQG
&RQVXPSWLRQ 3DWWHUQ LQ 6UL /DQND
,3+75'& $QXUDGDSXUD 6UL /DQND





7KHDXWKRUVZLVKWRH[SUHVVWKHLUJUDWLWXGH
WR +ROFLP /DQND  /WG IRU WHVWLQJ SK\VLFDO
SURSHUWLHVRI5+$




*DHVDQ.5DMDJRSDO.7KDQJDYHO.
5LFH +XVN DVK %OHQGHG &HPHQW
$VVHVVPHQW RI 2SWLPDO OHYHO RI
5HSODFHPHQW IRU 6WUHQJWK DQG
3HUPHDELOLW\ 3URSHUWLHV RI &RQFUHWH
-RXUQDO RI &RQVWUXFWLRQ DQG %XLOGLQJ
0DWHULDOVSS





$FNQRZOHGJHPHQW




(O'DUNURXU\ $ *DVVHU 06 5LFH


KXVNDVK 5+$ DV&HPHQW$GPL[WXUH
IRU
,PPRELOLVDWLRQ
RI
OLTXLG
5DGLRDFWLYH :DVWH DW 'LIIHUHQW
7HPSHUDWXUHV -RXUQDO RI 1XFOHDU
0DWHULDOV  

,VDLD*&*DVWDOGLQL$/0RUDHV*
5 3K\VLFDO DQG 3R]]RODQLF $FWLRQ RI
0LQHUDO DGGLWLRQV RQ WKH 0HFKDQLFDO
6WUHQJWK RI +LJK3HUIRUPDQFH -RXUQDO
&HPHQWDQG&RQFUHWH&RPSRVLWHV9ROXPH
,VVXH-DQXDU\3DJHV




%DQGDUD '+06 'HYHORSPHQW RI


%OHQGHG &HPHQW 8WLOL]LQJ WKH
3R]]RODQLF
$PRUSKRXV
6LOLFD
&RPSRQHQWRI5LFH+XVN$VK-RXUQDO
RI 1DWLRQDO 6FLHQFH &RXQFLO 
  

1HKGL0'XTXHWWH-(O'DPDWW\$
3HUIRUPDQFH RI 5LFH +XVN $VK
3URGXFHGXVLQJD1HZ7HFKQRORJ\DVD
0LQHUDO$GPL[WXUHLQ&RQFUHWH-RXUQDO
RI&HPHQWDQG&RQFUHWH5HVHDUFK





%RDWLQJ $$ DQG 6NHHWH '+


,QFLQHUDWLRQ RI 5LFH +XOO IRU XVH DV D
&HPHQWDWLRQV 0DWHULDOV 7KH *D\DQD
([SHULHQFH &HPHQW &RQFUHWH 5HVHDUFK




&HQWUDO %DQN $QQXDO 5HSRUW 


&HQWUDO%DQNRI6UL/DQND&RORPER6UL
/DQND



&HQWUDO %DQN $QQXDO 5HSRUW 


&HQWUDO%DQNRI6UL/DQND&RORPER6UL
/DQND



&H\ORQ ,QVWLWXWH RI 6FLHQWLILF DQG


,QGXVWULDO 5HVHDUFK 5HSRUW RQ
,QGXVWULDO 8VH RI 5LFH +XOO $VK
&,6,5&RORPER




&RRN -' 5LFH +XVN $VK ,Q 6ZDP\


51 HGLWRU &RQFUHWH 7HFKQRORJ\ DQG
'HVLJQ &HPHQW 5HSODFHPHQW 0DWHULDOV
9RO/RQGRQ6XUUH\8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV
SS

19

6KHWW\ 06 &RQFUHWH 7HFKQRORJ\ WK


HGQ 6 &KDQG  &RPSDQ\ /WG 5DP
1DJDU1HZ'HOKL
6UL /DQND 6WDQGDUG  3DUW  
6SHFLILFDWLRQV IRU 2UGLQDU\ 3RUWODQG
&HPHQW5HTXLUHPHQWV 

6UL/DQND6WDQGDUG3DUW
6SHFLILFDWLRQVIRU2UGLQDU\3RUWODQG
&HPHQW7HVW0HWKRGV 

6UL /DQND 6WDQGDUG  3DUW 
6SHFLILFDWLRQV IRU &HPHQW %ORFNV 3DUW
B5HTXLUHPHQWV 
6UL /DQND 6WDQGDUG  3DUW 
6SHFLILFDWLRQV IRU &HPHQW %ORFNV 3DUW
B7HVW0HWKRGV 

ENGINEER

ENGINEER - Vol. XXXXIV, No. 02, pp. [21-31], 2011


The Institution of Engineers, Sri Lanka

/DERUDWRU\DQG)LHOG,QYHVWLJDWLRQVRI*HQHUDWRU
6WDWRU,QVXODWLRQ

0$50)HUQDQGRDQG*$-D\DQWKD

$EVWUDFW7KLV SDSHU SUHVHQWV WKH FRQGLWLRQ DVVHVVPHQW RI V\QFKURQRXV JHQHUDWRU VWDWRU LQVXODWLRQ
XVHG LQ 6UL /DQNDQ SRZHU VWDWLRQV 7KH ZRUN KDV WKUHH SDUWV LH WKHRUHWLFDO ODERUDWRU\ DQG ILHOG
LQYHVWLJDWLRQV,QWKHILUVWSDUWWKHRU\EHKLQGGLHOHFWULFLQVXODWLRQVKDYHEHHQEURDGO\GLVFXVVHGZLWK
WKH DLG RI GLIIHUHQW QRQGHVWUXFWLYH WHVW PHWKRGV XVHG WR DVVHV WKH FRQGLWLRQV RI WKH JHQHUDWRU
LQVXODWLRQ,QWKHODERUDWRU\LQYHVWLJDWLRQVWZRQDWXUDOO\ZHWWHGDVSKDOWPLFDRQHGU\SRO\HVWHUPLFD
DQGRQHGU\HSR[\PLFDVSDUHVWDWRUZLQGLQJVZHUHWHVWHGXQGHUGU\LQJDQGZHWWLQJFRQGLWLRQV7KH
XVHG WHVW PHWKRGV ZHUH '& UDPS WLPH YDULDWLRQ RI LQVXODWLRQ UHVLVWDQFH ,5  SRODUL]DWLRQ DQG
GHSRODUL]DWLRQFXUUHQW 3'& IUHTXHQF\GLHOHFWULFVSHFWURVFRS\ )'6 DQGSDUWLDOGLVFKDUJH 3' WHVWV
DQG WKH UHODWLRQVKLSV KDYH EHHQ HVWDEOLVKHG DPRQJ WKHP ,Q WKH ILHOG LQYHVWLJDWLRQV GLIIHUHQW
JHQHUDWRUVEHORQJLQJWR&H\ORQ(OHFWULFLW\%RDUGZHUHWHVWHGE\XVLQJ'&UDPSWHVW,WZDVIRXQGWKDW
WKH'&UDPSWHVWDVDQHDV\DQGVLPSOHILHOGWHVWFDQEHHIIHFWLYHO\XVHGWRLQYHVWLJDWHWKHPRLVWXUH
HIIHFWRQJHQHUDWRULQVXODWLRQ
 
.H\ZRUGV6\QFKURQRXVJHQHUDWRU6WDWRULQVXODWLRQPRLVWXUHFRQGLWLRQDVVHVVPHQW'&UDPSWHVW
)UHTXHQF\GLHOHFWULFVSHFWURVFRS\ 





  ,QWURGXFWLRQ


*HQHUDWRUVWDWRUZLQGLQJLQVXODWLRQLVH[SRVHG
WR 7KHUPDO (OHFWULFDO 0HFKDQLFDO DQG
(QYLURQPHQWDO VWUHVVHV GXULQJ WKH RSHUDWLRQ
DQG IDLOXUH RI ZLQGLQJ LQVXODWLRQ GHSHQGV RQ
FRPELQDWLRQ RI WKHVH VWUHVVHV 0DMRU IDLOXUH
PRGHVRIWKHZLQGLQJLQVXODWLRQFDQEHGXHWR
LQWHUQDO SDUWLDO GLVFKDUJHV WKHUPDO F\FOLQJ RU
RYHUORDGLQJ DJHLQJ ORRVHQLQJ RI EDUV LQ WKH
VORW RU ZLQGLQJ RYHUKDQJV RYHU YROWDJHV DQG
FRQWDPLQDWLRQ 2XW RI WKHP FRQWDPLQDWLRQ RI
WKH VWDWRU LQVXODWLRQ LV UHVSRQVLEOH IRU DERXW
RIWKHPDMRUIDLOXUHVDQGLWLVPDLQO\GXHWR
PRLVWXUHDEVRUSWLRQZLWKLQRURXWVLGHIURPWKH
JHQHUDWRU 'XH WR K\JURVFRSLF QDWXUH RI PDQ\
W\SH RI WKH LQVXODWLRQ V\VWHPV PRLVWXUH FDQ EH
GUDZQLQWRWKHERG\RIWKHLQVXODWLRQIURPWKH
DWPRVSKHULF DLU RU IURP OHDNDJH RI ZDWHU IURP
WKH FRROHUV RI WKH JHQHUDWRU VWDWRU 7KXV WKLV
DEVRUEHG PRLVWXUH KDV D JUHDWHU HIIHFW RQ
SURSHUWLHV RI WKH LQVXODWLRQ ,Q DGGLWLRQ
PRLVWXUH LQ FRPELQDWLRQ ZLWK RLO FDUERQ GXVW
DQGEUDNHGXVWZKLFKDUHDOUHDG\GHSRVLWHGRQ
WKH ZLQGLQJ LQVXODWLRQ DQG YHQWLODWLRQ SDWKV
FDQDFFHOHUDWHWKHUPDOGHWHULRUDWLRQRU WKHUPDO
DJHLQJ RI WKH JHQHUDWRU VWDWRU ZLQGLQJ
LQVXODWLRQ DQG VWDWRU FRUH +XPLGLW\
GHSHQGHQF\RQWKHLQVXODWLRQSURSHUWLHVVHHPV
WR EH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK VSHFLILF VWDWRU ZLQGLQJ
GHWHULRUDWLRQSURFHVVVXFKDVHOHFWULFDOWUDFNLQJ
DQGHQGZLQGLQJSDUWLDOGLVFKDUJHDFWLYLWLHV>@

7KHUH DUH YDULRXV RQOLQH DQG RIIOLQH WHVW


PHWKRGV XVHG E\ WKH HQJLQHHUV IRU GLDJQRVLQJ
FRQGLWLRQRIWKHVWDWRUZLQGLQJLQVXODWLRQRIWKH
JHQHUDWRUV LQ RSHUDWLRQ >@ $VVHVVLQJ WKH
UHPDLQLQJ OLIH WLPH GHFLGLQJ WKH SULRULW\ OHYHO
IRU QH[W PDMRU PDLQWHQDQFH DQG GHWHUPLQLQJ
WKH URRW FDXVH IRU WKH IDLOXUH RI WKH IDLOHG
ZLQGLQJ DUH WKH PDLQ UHDVRQV IRU WHVWLQJ WKH
ZLQGLQJLQVXODWLRQ
$ERXW  GLIIHUHQW WHVW PHWKRGV DUH SUHVHQWO\
XVHG WR DVVHV WKH FRQGLWLRQ RI VWDWRU ZLQGLQJ
LQVXODWLRQ >@ 6RPH RI WKH IUHTXHQWO\ XVHG
WHVW PHWKRGV DUH LQVXODWLRQ UHVLVWDQFH
PHDVXUHPHQW >@ KLJK YROWDJH $&'&
WHVWLQJ2IIOLQHSDUWLDOGLVFKDUJHWHVWLQJDQGRQ
OLQH SDUWLDO GLVFKDUJH PRQLWRULQJ >@ ORVV
WDQJHQWDQGFDSDFLWDQFHPHDVXUHPHQW>@'&
UDPS WHVWLQJ >@ DQG UHVSRQVH   PHDVXUHPHQWV
LQWLPHDQGIUHTXHQF\GRPDLQ>@$OPRVWDOORI
WKHVH WHVWV DUH XVHG IRU PRQLWRULQJ WKH
V\PSWRPVRIWKHGHWHULRUDWLRQRIWKHLQVXODWLRQ
DQG PDLQWHQDQFH HQJLQHHUV XVH WKH UHVXOWV RI
WKH WHVWLQJ WR HYDOXDWH WKH FRQGLWLRQ RI WKH
LQVXODWLRQDQGWRHVWLPDWHWKHULVNRIIDLOXUHRI
 (QJ 3URI 0$50)HUQDQGR%6F(QJ 3HUDGHQL\D 
 &(QJ0,( 6UL/DQND 60,(((7HFK/LF .7+ 3K'

&KDOPHUV  6HQLRU /HFWXUHU 'HSDUWPHQW RI (OHFWULFDO 

 (OHFWURQLF(QJLQHHULQJ8QLYHUVLW\RI3HUDGHQL\D

(QJ*$-D\DQWKD%6F(QJ 3HUDGHQL\D &(QJ0,(

 6UL /DQND  &KLHI (QJLQHHU $VVHWV 0DQDJHPHQW &H\ORQ


(OHFWULFLW\%RDUG.DQG\

21

ENGINEER





WKH RSHUDWLQJ XQLW 8VH RI DOO WKH WHVW PHWKRGV
LV WLPH FRQVXPLQJ DQG LW UHTXLUHV D ORQJHU
SHULRG RI RXWDJH ZKLFK ILQDOO\ FRXQWV LQ WHUPV
RIFHQWVDQGUXSHHV
%HVWH[DPSOHLVWKDWWKHUHVSRQVHPHDVXUHPHQWV
VXFKDVIUHTXHQF\GLHOHFWULFVSHFWURVFRS\ )'6 
DQGSRODUL]DWLRQGHSRODUL]DWLRQFXUUHQW 3'& 
SURYLGHVXVHIXOLQIRUPDWLRQ
+RZHYHU LW XVXDOO\ WDNHV  KRXUV WR VHH WKH
UHDO HIIHFW RI WKH LQVXODWLRQ E\ HLWKHU JRLQJ
EHORZP+]UDQJHRUDERYHVLQIUHTXHQF\
DQG WLPH GRPDLQV UHVSHFWLYHO\ 2Q WKH RWKHU
KDQG '& UDPS WHVW DOVR SURYLGH XVHIXO
LQIRUPDWLRQ DQG GXH WR LWV VLPSOLFLW\ WKLV WHVW
FDQEHFRQGXFWHGLQWKHILHOGYHU\HDVLO\

$XWKRUV ZLVK WR HODERUDWH RQ FRQGLWLRQ
DVVHVVPHQW RI JHQHUDWRU VWDWRU LQVXODWLRQ
DLPLQJ WR XQGHUVWDQG WKH XVH RI '& UDPS WHVW
HVSHFLDOO\WRGLDJQRVHWKHSUHVHQFHRIPRLVWXUH
5HVXOWV RI ILHOG WHVW DQG ODERUDWRU\ WHVW E\
GLIIHUHQW WHVW PHWKRGV DUH XVHG WR HVWDEOLVK D
UHODWLRQVKLS DPRQJ WKH WHVW UHVXOWV DQG WHVWLQJ
PHWKRGV




)LJXUH,QVXODWLRQRIVWDWRUZLQGLQJ

$FFRUGLQJ WR WKH LQVXODWLRQ PDWHULDO DQG
ERQGLQJ DJHQW RI WKH PDLQ LQVXODWLRQ *URXQG
ZDOO LQVXODWLRQ  WKH LQVXODWLRQ RI JHQHUDWRU
VWDWRU ZLQGLQJV FDQ EH FODVVLILHG LQ WR WKUHH
PDLQYHUVLRQVDVDVSKDOWPLFDSRO\HVWHUPLFD
DQG HSR[\PLFD 0LFD LV WKH PDLQ LQVXODWLRQ
PDWHULDO>@

7KH JHQHUDWRU VWDWRU LQVXODWLRQ DV D GLHOHFWULF
PDWHULDOZKHQVXEMHFWHGWRDQHOHFWULFVWUHVVE\
DF RU '& YROWDJH FXUUHQW IORZV IURP WKH FX
FRQGXFWRU WR WKH RXWHU LQVXODWLRQ RU WR WKH
JURXQGZDOO7KLVFXUUHQWFRQVLVWVRIWZRSDUWV
LH VXUIDFH OHDNDJH DQG FXUUHQW WKURXJK WKH
LQVXODWLRQ7KHFXUUHQWWKURXJKWKHLQVXODWLRQLV
PDLQO\FKDUDFWHUL]HGE\WKHFDSDFLWLYHOHDNDJH
DQGWKHSRODUL]DWLRQEHKDYLRXURIWKHLQVXODWLRQ
DQGFDQEHHVWLPDWHGXVLQJHPSLULFDOIRUPXODV
2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG WKH VXUIDFH FXUUHQW FDQ QRW
EH HVWLPDWHG EXW FRXOG EH VHSDUDWHG E\
PHDVXULQJ ZLWK RUDQG ZLWKRXW WKH JXDUGLQJ
HOHFWURGH ,Q JHQHUDO WKH EHKDYLRXU RI WKH
LQVXODWLRQ GLHOHFWULF PDWHULDO  FDQ EH DQDO\VHG
LQWLPHRUIUHTXHQF\GRPDLQVGHSHQGLQJRQWKH
VXSSO\YROWDJHRI'&RUDFUHVSHFWLYHO\>@

 7LPH'RPDLQDQDO\VLV

,Q WLPH GRPDLQ DQDO\VLV WKH LQVXODWLRQ LV
VXEMHFWHG WR D '& YROWDJH DQG WKH UHVSRQVH LV
UHFRUGHG ZLWK UHVSHFW WR WKH WLPH 7KH WLPH
YDULDWLRQ RI FXUUHQW FDQ EH REWDLQHG IURP WKH
H[SUHVVLRQIRUFXUUHQWGHQVLW\DFFRUGLQJ WRWKH
0D[ZHOOVHTXDWLRQV

  7KHRUHWLFDO,QYHVWLJDWLRQV

 *HQHUDWRU6WDWRULQVXODWLRQ

0DLQ SXUSRVH RI WKH LQVXODWLRQ RI WKH VWDWRU


ZLQGLQJ LV WR DYRLG VKRUW FLUFXLW EHWZHHQ
SKDVHV DQG EHWZHHQ SKDVH DQG JURXQG ,W KDV
WRWUDQVPLWKHDWGXHWRFRQGXFWRUFXUUHQWWRWKH
RXW VLGH RI WKH ZLQGLQJ LQVXODWLRQ WR WKH
FRROLQJ PHGLXP DQG WKH VWDWRU FRUH  6WUDQG
LQVXODWLRQ WXUQ LQVXODWLRQ DQG JURXQGZDOO
LQVXODWLRQ DUH WKH WKUHH PDLQ EDVLF FRQVWLWXWHV
RI WKH VWDWRU LQVXODWLRQ V\VWHP DV VKRZQ LQ
)LJXUHVDQG

%RWWRP3DFNLQJ

6WUDQG,QVXODWLRQ

 *URXQGZDOO PDLQ ,QVXODWLRQ

6LGHILOOHUDQGVHPLFRQGXFWLYHFRDWLQJ


0LGVWLFN3DFNLQJ 6SDFHU 

 7XUQ,QVXODWLRQ

3URWHFWLYHVWULS

6OLGLQJVWULS

&RXQWHUZHGJH

5LSSOHVSULQJ

6ORW:HGJH

)LJXUH&URVVVHFWLRQRIVWDWRUZLQGLQJLQD
VORW

ENGINEER

- W +

V(  H 

w( w3

  
wW wW

:KHUH ( DQG 3 DUH HOHFWULF VWUHVV DQG


SRODUL]DWLRQ 7KH ILUVW VHFRQG DQG WKLUG WHUPV
UHSUHVHQW WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ IURP FRQGXFWLRQ
FDSDFLWLYH
DQG
SRODUL]DWLRQ
FXUUHQWV
UHVSHFWLYHO\ 7KH SRODUL]DWLRQ KDV FRQWULEXWLRQ
IURPUDSLGDQGVORZSKHQRPHQDDV

22



+RZHYHUWKHVXUIDFHFXUUHQWFDQEHFRQVLGHUHG
DVVPDOO%\ILWWLQJWKHFXUUHQWYDOXHVRIHTY  
ZLWKPHDVXUHG,9FXUYHWKHYDULDEOHVRI5&f
. DQG Q FDQ EH REWDLQHG )LJXUH  VKRZV RQH
H[DPSOHRI'&UDPSWHVWFRQGXFWHGRQ&DQ\RQ
3RZHU6WDWLRQ*HQHUDWRU8LQ-DQXDU\
7KH ILWWHG FXUYHV FRPSULVLQJ WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ
IURP FDSDFLWLYH UHVLVWLYH DQG DEVRUSWLRQ
FRPSRQHQWV DUH LQFOXGHG LQ WKH SORW 7KH
FDSDFLWLYHDQGOHDNDJHFXUUHQWVDUHUHVSHFWLYHO\
FRQVWDQWDQGOLQHDU7KHHVWLPDWHGYDOXHVDUH5
7&f Q). [DQGQ 


3 W H  H f   ( W  H  I W ( W  W GW   


:KHUH I W  LV WKH UHVSRQVH IXQFWLRQ RI WKH


PDWHULDO %\ FRPELQLQJ HTY   DQG   WKH
FXUUHQWGHQVLW\FDQEHZULWWHQDV

- W V( W  H 

w


H
(
W
I W ( W  W GW  

f

wW



:KHQDYROWDJH8 W LVDSSOLHGWKHFXUUHQWLV

, W

&V8 W

H

w
 & Hf8 W  I W 8 W W GW  
wW


:KHUH WKH & LV JHRPHWULF FDSDFLWDQFH %\


PHDVXULQJ WKH FXUUHQW RQH FRXOG VHSDUDWH
FDSDFLWLYH FRQGXFWLRQ DQG SRODUL]DWLRQ
FRPSRQHQWV

 '&UDPSWHVW
,Q WKLV PHWKRG WKH '& YROWDJH LV UDPSHG XS
XVXDOO\DWDORZUDWHOLNHN9PLQ ZKLOHWKH
FXUUHQWLVFRQWLQXRXVO\PRQLWRUHGDVDIXQFWLRQ
RI YROWDJH ,9 FKDUDFWHULVWLFV  'XH WR
VLPSOLFLW\ EHWWHU DVVHVVPHQW DQG DSSOLFDELOLW\
RI LQWHUUXSWLQJ WKH WHVW GXULQJ DEQRUPDO
FRQGLWLRQV WKLV WHVW FDQ EH HIIHFWLYHO\ XVHG IRU
FRQGLWLRQ DVVHVVPHQW RI URWDWLQJ PDFKLQHV
>@ ,Q RXU ZRUN DWWHQWLRQ KDV EHHQ SDLG WR
XVHWKLVWHVWPHWKRGHIIHFWLYHO\DQGVRPHRIRXU
SUHYLRXVILQGLQJVKDYHEHHQUHSRUWHGLQ>@

,I WKH VORSH RI YROWDJH LV D LH 8 W   DW  WKH
OHDNDJH DQG FDSDFLWLYH FRPSRQHQWV FDQ EH
DSSUR[LPDWHG DFFRUGLQJWRHTY DV

, OHDN |
, FDS

&VDW

H
| &H fD


)LJXUH   0HDVXUHG DQG ILWWHG '& UDPS WHVW
UHVXOWV IRU &DQ\RQ 8 5 3KDVH 
-DQXDU\  >R IRU PHDVXUHG YDOXHV  IRU ILWWHG
YDOXHV  IRU FDSDFLWLYH FXUUHQW  IRU
DEVRUSWLRQFXUUHQWDQG[IRUOHDNDJHFXUUHQW

 3RODUL]DWLRQ DQG GHSRODUL]DWLRQ FXUUHQW
3'& 
7KH LQVXODWLRQ LV ILUVW VXEMHFWHG WR D FRQVWDQW
'& YROWDJH 8 DQG SRODUL]DWLRQ FKDUJLQJ 
FXUUHQW LV PHDVXUHG RYHU D ORQJ SHULRG LH
V 7KHQ WKH LQVXODWLRQ LV VKRUW FLUFXLWHG
DQG GHSRODUL]DWLRQ GLVFKDUJLQJ  FXUUHQW LV
PHDVXUHG 7KLV WHVW PHWKRG GHVSLWH WLPH
FRQVXPLQJ SURYLGHV XVHIXO LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW
WKH LQVXODWLRQ 7KH GHSRODUL]DWLRQ FXUUHQW
GLUHFWO\IROORZVWKHUHVSRQVHIXQFWLRQI W DV

DW

5  
&fD

:KHUH 5 LV UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ RI UHVLVWDQFH IRU


OHDNDJH FXUUHQW DQG &f LV WKH FDSDFLWDQFH DW
KLJKHU IUHTXHQFLHV %\ DVVXPLQJ WKDW WKH
UHVSRQVH IXQFWLRQ I W $WQ  RI WKH LQVXODWLRQ
IROORZV&XULH9RQ6FKZHLGOHUEHKDYLRXU>@WKH
DEVRUSWLRQFXUUHQWFDQEHDSSUR[LPDWHGDV


, DEV | & $DW Q

I W |

.&fDW Q   

, GHSRO W
 
&8

,I WKH LQVXODWLRQ LV FKDUJHG VXIILFLHQWO\ ORQJHU


SHULRG LH DW OHDVW  V WKH FRQGXFWLYLW\ V 
FDQEHDSSUR[LPDWHGDVWKHGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQ
SRODUL]DWLRQDQGGHSRODUL]DWLRQFXUUHQW


:KHUH. $Hf

1RZWKHUHVXOWDQWFXUUHQWLQ'&UDPSWHVWFDQ
EHZULWWHQDV

V|

, W D  &f  .&f W Q   


5

H

&8

>, W  , W @  
SRO

GHSRO

)LJXUH  VKRZV RQH H[DPSOH RI SRODUL]DWLRQ


GHSRODUL]DWLRQ WHVW FRQGXFWHG RQ D SRO\HVWHU
VSDUH ZLQGLQJ WDNHQ IURP 8NXZHOD SRZHU
VWDWLRQ 7KH UHVSRQVH IXQFWLRQ ZDV FDOFXODWHG
DFFRUGLQJ WR HTY  DQG LV LQFOXGHG WKHUH 7KH

6LQFH WKH '& UDPS WHVW LV FRQGXFWHG ZLWKRXW


WKH JXDUGLQJ WHUPLQDO WKH VXUIDFH FXUUHQW LV
LQFOXGHGLQWKHPHDVXUHGUDPSWHVWUHVXOWV

23

ENGINEER



(

&XUUHQW>$@

(



(

,SRO W

,GHSRO W

5HVSRQVHIXQFWLRQ

WHVW YROWDJH ZDV  9 7KH FRQGXFWLYLW\ ZDV


FDOFXODWHG DWq& DQGZDV[6P



)LJXUH   ,5 UHVXOWV IRU SRO\HVWHU ZLQGLQJ
IURP 8NXZHOD SRZHU VWDWLRQ DJH  \HDUV 
ZLWK DQG ZLWKRXW JXDUGLQJ WHUPLQDO R IRU
ZLWKRXW VXUIDFH FXUUHQW  IRU ZLWK VXUIDFH
FXUUHQW  IRU FDOFXODWHG FXUUHQW 5  *:
:
&f Q)

)UHTXHQF\'RPDLQDQDO\VLV

I W



(










7LPD>V@

)LJXUH   3RODUL]DWLRQ'HSRODUL]DWLRQ FXUUHQW


DQG UHVSRQVH IXQFWLRQ IRU D VSDUH ZLQGLQJ
IURP8NXZHOD3RZHUVWDWLRQ DJH\HDUV 

 ,QVXODWLRQUHVLVWDQFH ,5 

+HUHDFRQVWDQW'&YROWDJHLHN9LVDSSOLHG
WR WKH LQVXODWLRQ  7UDGLWLRQDOO\ ,5 DW RQH
PLQXWHDQG,5DWPLQXWHVDUHPHDVXUHG7KH
ZLQGLQJ WHPSHUDWXUH DPELHQW WHPSHUDWXUH
DQG KXPLGLW\ DW WKH WLPH RI WHVWLQJ DUH
UHFRUGHG  ,5 YDOXHV DW RQH PLQXWH GHSHQG RQ
WKH WHPSHUDWXUH RI WKH ZLQGLQJ DQG KXPLGLW\
RI WKH DPELHQW FRQGLWLRQV 7KH PHDVXUHPHQW
VKDOO EH GRQH DERYH GHZ SRLQW DQG WKH UHVXOWV
FDQ EH XVHG WR HYDOXDWH ZKHWKHU WKH ZLQGLQJ
LQVXODWLRQ LV 2. IRU WKH QRUPDO RSHUDWLRQ DQG
VXEVHTXHQW KLJK YROWDJH WHVWLQJ   7KH ,5 DW 
PLQXWHV LV DOVR PHDVXUHG WR ILQG WKH
SRODULVDWLRQ LQGH[ 3, ,5# PLQXWHV  ,5#
PLQXWH  ZKLFK LV LQGHSHQGHQW RI WKH
WHPSHUDWXUH DQG LW FDQ EH XVHG WR WUHQG WKH
UHVXOWV ,Q WKLV ZRUN E\ GHYLDWLQJ IURP WKH
WUDGLWLRQDO WHVW PHWKRG WKH ,5 YDOXHV ZHUH
FRQWLQXRXVO\PRQLWRUHGVLQFHWKH\FRXOGHDVLO\
EH FRPSDUHG ZLWK '& UDPS DQG SRODUL]DWLRQ
FXUUHQWV 2QFH WKH '& YROWDJH LV DSSOLHG WKH
FDSDFLWLYH FXUUHQW GHFD\V WR ]HUR YHU\ UDSLGO\
6RWLPHYDULDWLRQRI,5FDQEHFRUUHODWHGWR'&
UDPSUHVXOWVDQGSRODUL]DWLRQFXUUHQWDV

,5 W



 .&f W Q
5

, SRO W

,Q IUHTXHQF\ GRPDLQ DQDO\VLV DF YROWDJHV DW


GLIIHUHQW IUHTXHQFLHV DUH DSSOLHG WR WKH
LQVXODWLRQDQGWKHLUFRUUHVSRQGLQJFXUUHQWVDUH
UHFRUGHG :KHQ WUDQVIRUPLQJ WKH FXUUHQW
GHQVLW\ LQ HTY   LQWR IUHTXHQF\ GRPDLQ WKH
FRQYROXWLRQEHFRPHVWKHSURGXFWDV

- Z V( Z  H  MZHf ( Z  H  I Z ( Z   

%\ GHILQLQJ WKH FRPSOH[ VXVFHSWLELOLW\ DV WKH
)RXULHUWUDQVIRUPRIUHVSRQVHIXQFWLRQI W DVLQ
HTY  

F Z I Z F
Z  MF  Z   

$WDYROWDJHRI8 Z WKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJFXUUHQW
FDQEHZULWWHQ


, Z


 &DSDFLWDQFHDQGORVVWDQJHQW

,Q IUHTXHQF\ GRPDLQ VHSDUDWLRQ RI FXUUHQWV LV
GLIILFXOW ,QVWHDG FDSDFLWLYH DQG ORVV WDQJHQW
YDOXHV DUH XVHG %\ LQWURGXFLQJ FRPSOH[
SHUPLWWLYLW\ WR WKH HTY   WKH FXUUHQW FDQ EH
VLPSOLILHGDV


  

7KHVXUIDFHFXUUHQWLVQRWLQFOXGHGKHUHEXWLW
FDQ EH PHDVXUHG E\ WDNLQJ WKH GLIIHUHQFH
EHWZHHQ ,5 WHVW ZLWK DQG ZLWKRXW JXDUGLQJ
WHUPLQDO )LJXUH  VKRZV WKH WLPH YDULDWLRQ RI
,5 YDOXHV ZLWK DQG ZLWKRXW JXDUGLQJ WHUPLQDO
IRU D SRO\HVWHU PLFD VSDUH ZLQGLQJ WDNHQ IURP
8NXZHOD 3RZHU VWDWLRQ DW WHPSHUDWXUH   &
DQG5+


ENGINEER

V
 F Z 8 Z   
MZ& ^Hf  F
Z ` M

ZH

, Z





24

MZ& >H
Z  MH  Z @8 Z
MZ> &
Z  M& Z @8 Z

  


7KHQWKHORVVWDQJHQWLVJLYHQE\

WDQ G

& Z
&
Z

PDFKLQHV ZKHUH UDWHG RSHUDWLQJ YROWDJH LV


KLJKHUWKDQN9WKLVSKHQRPHQRQQRUPDOO\
RFFXUVDQGPRQLWRULQJFDQEHGRQHLQERWKRII
OLQH DQG RQOLQH XVLQJ YDULRXV 3' VHQVRUV
&RXSOHUV DQGPRQLWRULQJHTXLSPHQW0RVWRI
WKH WHFKQLTXHV PHDVXUH FXUUHQW DQG YROWDJH
SXOVHV WKDW DULVHV GXH 3' LQ WKH ZLQGLQJ
LQVXODWLRQ 2Q OLQH PRQLWRULQJ RI WKH 3' LV
SRSXODU DPRQJ WKH XWLOLWLHV GXH WR WKH UHDVRQ
WKDWWKHPHDVXUHPHQWJLYHVDUHDOLVWLFFRQGLWLRQ
RI WKH LQVXODWLRQ DW LWV QRUPDO RSHUDWLRQ
FRQGLWLRQV

7KH3'PHDVXUHPHQWFDQEHXVHGWRGHWHUPLQH
WKH GHWHULRUDWLRQ RI LQVXODWLRQ V\VWHP GXH WR
LQVXODWLRQ GHODPLQDWLRQ YRLGV VORW GLVFKDUJHV
GLVFKDUJHVDWWKHHQGZLQGLQJVDQGGDPDJHVWR
VWUHVV JUDGLQJ LQVXODWLRQ ,W FDQ EH XVHG DV DQ
DFFHSWDQFH WHVW RI LQGLYLGXDO FRLOV DQG QHZ
JHQHUDWRUV ZKLFK KHOSV WR DVVHVV WKH
PDQXIDFWXULQJSURFHVVDQGWKHVWDWXVRIFXULQJ
RIWKHZLQGLQJDIWHUPDQXIDFWXULQJ

3'LVDSXOVHZLWKVKRUWGXUDWLRQ LHLQQV VR
WKDW D GHYLFH VHQVLWLYH WR KLJK IUHTXHQFLHV LV
XVHG WR GHWHFW 3' 7\SLFDOO\  +9 FDSDFLWRUV
S)   S)  FRQQHFWHG WR WKH OLYH SKDVH
WHUPLQDOV RI WKH URWDWLQJ PDFKLQHV DUH XVHG DV
WKH FRXSOHUV E\ PRGHUQ RQOLQH PRQLWRULQJ
V\VWHPV 3' UHVXOWV DUH XVXDOO\ SUHVHQWHG
PDLQO\ E\ PDJQLWXGH RI WKH KLJKHVW 3' SXOVH
4PXQLWVLQS&RUP9 ,QDGGLWLRQPRGHUQ
SXOVH FRXQW UDWH LQ SXOVHV SHU 6HFRQG SS6 
DQGWKHSKDVHDQJOHDUHDOVRXVHG

)LJXUH  DQG  VKRZ 3' PHDVXULQJ VHWXS DQG
WHVWUHVXOWVREWDLQHGIURPWKH*HQHUDWRU8RI
8NXZHOD SRZHU VWDWLRQ ZKLFK KDV SRO\HVWHU
PLFDLQVXODWLRQ











)LJXUH%DVLFDUUDQJHPHQWRIVHQVRUVIRURQ
OLQH 3' PHDVXUHPHQWV 7ZR FRXSOHUV ZHUH
XVHG IRU QRLVH ILOWHULQJ DQG WKH FRXSOLQJ
FDSDFLWDQFHLVS)





V
 F  Z
ZH 
  
H f  F
Z

7UDGLWLRQDOO\ WKH FDSDFLWDQFH &  DQG ORVV


WDQJHQWDWSRZHUIUHTXHQF\ +] LVXVHGIRU
HYDOXDWLRQ RI WKH LQVXODWLRQ ZKLFK SURYLGHV D
URXJKHVWLPDWLRQRQLWVFRQGLWLRQ

 )UHTXHQF\ 'LHOHFWULF 6SHFWURVFRS\
)'6 

)'6 PHDVXUHPHQWV DUH ZLGHO\ XVHG IRU
FRQGLWLRQDVVHVVPHQWRIKLJKYROWDJHDSSDUDWXV
DOWHUQDWLYHWRWKHVLQJOHSRLQWPHDVXUHPHQWVLH
DV LQ SDUW  )URP UHFHQWO\ )'6
PHDVXUHPHQWVKDYHEHHQLQWURGXFHGWRURWDWLQJ
PDFKLQHV >@ ,Q WKLV PHWKRG FRPSOH[
FDSDFLWDQFH DQG ORVV WDQJHQW YDOXHV DUH
PHDVXUHG XS WR ORZ IUHTXHQFLHV ,Q RXU ZRUN
)'6 PHDVXUHPHQWV ZHUH WDNHQ IURP  N+] WR
P+])LJXUHVKRZVIUHTXHQF\YDULDWLRQRI
FRPSOH[ FDSDFLWDQFH IRU SRO\HVWHU VSDUH
ZLQGLQJ IURP 8NXZHOD SRZHU VWDWLRQ 7KH &
XVXDOO\ LQFUHDVHV ZLWK WKH GHFUHDVHV RI
IUHTXHQF\ DV VKRZQ LQ WKH ILJXUH 7KH JHQHUDO
WHQGHQF\ RI & LV LQFUHDVLQJ WRZDUGV D ORVV
SHDN ZLWK WKH UHGXFWLRQ RI WKH IUHTXHQF\ 7KH
ORVV WDQJHQW DQG WKH SRZHU IDFWRU ZHUH
FDOFXODWHGDQGDUHLQFOXGHGLQWKHJUDSK:KHQ
ORVV WDQJHQW YDOXHV ZHUH ORZ LW LV
DSSUR[LPDWHO\ HTXDOV WR WKH SRZHU IDFWRU LH
WDQG|VLQG VLQ qI  FRVI 


(



&

WDQGHOWD

3)

(



&DSDFLWDQFH>)@

(

(








)UHTXHQF\>+]@





WDQGHOWD3RZHUIDFWRU

&






)LJXUH   )UHTXHQF\ YDULDWLRQ RI & & ORVV
WDQJHQW DQG SRZHU IDFWRU IRU VSDUH ZLQGLQJ
IRU8NXZHODSRZHUVWDWLRQ $JH\HDUV 

 3DUWLDO'LVFKDUJH 3' 7HVW

3DUWLDO GLVFKDUJH LV D ORFDOL]HG HOHFWULFDO
GLVFKDUJHLQDQLQVXODWLRQV\VWHPWKDWGRHVQRW
FRPSOHWHO\ EULGJH WKH HOHFWURGHV ,Q URWDWLQJ

25

ENGINEER


LQ )LJXUH  ,Q WKLV VWXG\ XQGHU ODERUDWRU\
LQYHVWLJDWLRQV SDUW   DWWHQWLRQ ZDV SDLG WR
YDOLGDWH WKH '& UDPS WHVW UHVXOWV ZLWK
FRUUHVSRQGLQJ 3'& DQG )'6 YDOXHV :LWK
WKRVH FRUUHODWLRQV WKH '& UDPS WHVW FRXOG EH
HIIHFWLYHO\ XVHG WR LQWHUSUHW WKH ILHOG
PHDVXUHPHQWVLQSDUW


 /DERUDWRU\,QYHVWLJDWLRQV


)LJXUH   3KDVH 5HVROYHG GDWD REWDLQHG E\
FDSDFLWRU FRXSOHUV RQ 3KDVH $ % & 3XOVH
UHSHWLWLRQUDWHLVJLYHQE\GLIIHUHQWFRORXUVDV
LQWKHOHJHQG

 &RPSDULVRQ

5DPSGF
9ROWDJH

&RQVWDQW
GF
9ROWDJH
&RQVWDQW
IDF
9ROWDJH

9DULDEOH
IDF
9ROWDJH

'F
UDPS
WHVW

5HVLVWLYH
V

,5 W 
WHVW
3'&
WHVW
&WDQG
WHVW

SRODUL]DWLRQ
I W 

&DSDFLWLYH
HfWDQGHH

)'6
WHVW
3'
WHVW

9RLGV
&

)LJXUH&RPSDULVRQVRIWHVWPHWKRGV

2XW RI GLIIHUHQW SDUDPHWHUV WKH UHVSRQVH


IXQFWLRQ I W  FRQGXFWLYLW\ V  FDSDFLWDQFH DW
KLJKHU IUHTXHQF\ Hf RU &f  ORVV WDQJHQW DW
+] SURYLGHV WKH RYHUDOO SLFWXUH RI WKH
LQVXODWLRQ 7KH 3'& UHVXOWV GLUHFWO\ SURYLGHV
WKH YDOXHV RI I W  DQG V ZKHUHDV )'6 UHVXOWV
JLYHV Hf DQG WDQG YDOXHV +RZHYHU WLPH
GRPDLQ UHVXOWV FDQ EH YHULILHG ZLWK WKDW LQ
IUHTXHQF\GRPDLQDQGYLFHYHUVDXVLQJ)RXULHU
WUDQVIRUP RU LQYHUVH )RXULHU WUDQVIRUP
UHVSHFWLYHO\ >@ 6LPLODUO\ WKH '& UDPS WHVW
UHVXOWVFDQEHPRGHOOHGDQGYHULILHGZLWKWLPH
DQG IUHTXHQF\ GRPDLQ UHVXOWV $ VXPPHU\ RI
FRPSDULVRQ RI GLIIHUHQW WHVW PHWKRGV LV VKRZQ

ENGINEER

26


 'HWDLOVRI:LQGLQJVDPSOHV

)RXU VSDUH ZLQGLQJ VDPSOHV ZHUH FROOHFWHG


IURP K\GUR JHQHUDWRUV IRU FRPSDULVRQ RI
GLIIHUHQWWHVWPHWKRGVXQGHUGLIIHUHQWPRLVWXUH
FRQGLWLRQV7KHLUGHWDLOVDUHDVIROORZV

:$N9DVSKDOWPLFDVSDUHZLQGLQJIURP
:LPDODVXUHQGUD +\GUR 3RZHU VWDWLRQ :36 
ZLWK DQ DJHLQJ WLPH RI  \HDUV 7KLV ZLQGLQJ
ZDV IRXQG LQ WKH VWRUHV RI WKH SRZHU VWDWLRQ
ZLWKRXW DQ\ SDFNLQJ RU SUHFDXWLRQDU\
PHDVXUHV WR SURWHFW WKH ZLQGLQJ DQG ZDV
FRQVLGHUHGDVDZHWVDPSOH

:  $  N9 DVSKDOW PLFD VSDUH ZLQGLQJ
IURP6DPDQDOD+\GURSRZHU6WDWLRQ 636 ZLWK
DQ DJHLQJ WLPH RI  \HDUV 7KLV ZLQGLQJ ZDV
IRXQG LQ WKH VWRUHV RI WKH SRZHU VWDWLRQ ZLWK
SDFNLQJDQGZDVFRQVLGHUHGDVD'U\VDPSOH

:$N9SRO\HVWHU PLFDVSDUH ZLQGLQJ
IURP8NXZHOD+\GUR3RZHUVWDWLRQ 8. ZLWK
DQ DJHLQJ WLPH RI  \HDUV 7KLV ZLQGLQJ KDV
EHHQ VWRUHG LQ JRRG FRQGLWLRQ DQG FRQVLGHUHG
DVDGU\VDPSOH

:$N9HSR[\PLFDXVHGZLQGLQJIURP
.RWPDOH +\GUR 3RZHU 6WDWLRQ ZLWK DQ DJHLQJ
WLPHRI\HDUV7KHVDPSOHZDVDKDOIVHFWLRQ
RIDZLQGLQJUHPRYHGIURPVHUYLFHLQ\HDU
DQGFRQVLGHUHGDVDGU\VDPSOH

 7HVW6HWXS

(DFKZLQGLQJVDPSOHZDVSUHSDUHGIRUWHVWLQJ
7KHZLQGLQJVZHUHNHSWKRUL]RQWDORQWRSRIDQ
LQVXODWLQJ VKHHW RQ WRS RI IRXU VWRROV 7KH WZR
FRQGXFWRUV ZHUH FRQQHFWHG WRJHWKHU DV WKH
+9 WHUPLQDO %RWK SDUWV RI WKH JURXQG ZDOO
LQVXODWLRQZHUHFRQQHFWHGWRJHWKHUDVWKH/9
WHUPLQDO 3UHOLPLQDU\ VWXGLHV ZHUH FRQGXFWHG
ZLWKGLIIHUHQWW\SHVRIWHUPLQDOFRQQHFWLRQVIRU
WKHJURXQGZDOOLQVXODWLRQLQRUGHUWRUHSUHVHQW
WKH HIIHFW RI WKH FRUH LQ UHDO JHQHUDWRUV 7KH\
LQFOXGHG L DFORVHO\ZRXQG$OFRQGXFWRUV 
WXUQV RI PP GLDPHWHU  LL  DQ $O VKHHW
PP WKLFNQHVV  DQG LLL  ZRXQG $O


FRQGXFWRUV RQ $O VKHHW  ,W ZDV IRXQG WKDW WKH
FRQILJXUDWLRQ IRU WKH /9 WHUPLQDO KDG
QHJOLJLEOH HIIHFW RQ WKH RYHUDOO PHDVXUHPHQWV
7KXVFRQILJXUDWLRQPHQWLRQHGDV LLL ZDVXVHG
IRUILQDOPHDVXUHPHQWV7KHWKLUGHOHFWURGHLH
WKH JXDUGLQJ WHUPLQDO ZDV XVHG E\ FRQQHFWLQJ
WKHSRWHQWLDOJUDGLQJLQVXODWLRQRIWKHZLQGLQJ
$VFKHPDWLFGLDJUDPRIWKHWHVWVHWXSIRU)'6
PHDVXUHPHQWVLVVKRZQLQ)LJXUH7KHVDPH
FRQILJXUDWLRQ ZDV XVHG LQ RWKHU WHVW PHWKRGV
H[FHSW3'


)LJXUH7HVWVHWXSIRUODERUDWRU\
PHDVXUHPHQWV

 3URFHGXUH

'LIIHUHQWWHVWPHWKRGVZHUHXVHGLQWKLVVWXG\
7KH\ ZHUH '& UDPS ,5 3'& )'6 DQG 3'
WHVWV ,Q '& UDPS WHVW WKH YROWDJH ZDV
LQFUHDVHGIURPWRN9DWDUDWHRIN9PLQ
DQG WKH ,9 VLJQDWXUH ZDV QRWHG XVLQJ '&5
$GZHO '& UDPS WHVWHU 7KH ,5 WHVW ZDV
FRQGXFWHG DW  N9 E\ XVLQJ D 0HJJHU DQG WKH
,5 YDOXHV ZHUH FRQWLQXRXVO\ PRQLWRUHG IRU
 VHFRQGV ,Q 3'& WHVW WKH ZLQGLQJV ZHUH
FKDUJHG IRU V DW  9 DQG GLVFKDUJHG IRU
V 7KH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ FXUUHQWV ZHUH
UHFRUGHG XVLQJ .HLWKO\ (OHFWURPHWHU $ ,Q
)'6 PHDVXUHPHQW IUHTXHQF\ YDULDWLRQ RI
FRPSOH[ FDSDFLWDQFH DQG ORVV WDQJHQW ZHUH
PHDVXUHGXVLQJ,'$DW9IURPN+]WR
 P+] 3' WHVW ZDV GRQH XVLQJ ,QVXO *DUG
SDUWLDO 'LVFKDUJH PRQLWRULQJ HTXLSPHQW DQG
PHDVXUHPHQWZDVGRQHLQWKHIUHTXHQF\EDQG
RI0+]WR0+]1RLVHILOWUDWLRQLVGRQHE\
QRLVHVXSSUHVVLRQDOJRULWKP

/DERUDWRU\ PHDVXUHPHQWV ZHUH WDNHQ RQ HDFK


ZLQGLQJ VDPSOH DW URRP WHPSHUDWXUH q& 
q&  DQG DW UHODWLYH KXPLGLW\ OHYHOV EHWZHHQ
 LQ WKH IROORZLQJ VHTXHQFH 7KH '&
UDPSWHVWZDVLQLWLDOO\FRQGXFWHGWLOON97KH
IROORZLQJGD\,5WHVWZDVFRQGXFWHGDWN9IRU
VDQGGDWDZHUHUHFRUGHGLQHDFKV:LWK
DGHTXDWH UHOD[DWLRQ WKH )'6 ZDV FRQGXFWHG
3'& DQG 3' WHVWV ZHUH FRQGXFWHG RQ VRPH RI
WKHVDPSOHV

27

$IWHU WKH SUHOLPLQDU\ PHDVXUHPHQWV WZR


VHSDUDWH WHVW VHTXHQFHV ZHUH IROORZHG RQH
ZLWK GU\LQJ SURFHVV RQ ZHW ZLQGLQJV : DQG
: WKH RWKHU XQGHU ZHWWLQJ FRQGLWLRQV IRU
ZLQGLQJ:

,Q WKH GU\LQJ SURFHVV WKH VDPSOHV ZHUH GULHG
LQVLGH DQ RYHQ PP ; PP ; PP 
IRU QHDUO\ WKUHH GD\V 6LPLODU SURFHVV ZDV
DGRSWHGIRUGU\LQJ%RZDWHQQDJHQHUDWRUZKLFK
ZDV VXEPHUJHG LQ ZDWHU IRU PRUH WKDQ 
KRXUVLQ'HFHPEHU>@,QLWLDOO\WKHRYHQ
WHPSHUDWXUHZDVLQFUHDVHGIURP&WR&DW
DUDWHRI&SHUKRXU 3KDVH, 7KHQWKHRYHQ
WHPSHUDWXUHZDVLQFUHDVHGWR&DWWKHUDWHRI
& SHU KRXU >@ DQG NHSW IRU  KRXUV 3KDVH
,,  )LQDOO\ WKH VDPSOH ZDV DOORZHG WR FRRO
QDWXUDOO\XQGHUFORVHGFRQGLWLRQRIWKHRYHQIRU
IXUWKHUKUV 3KDVH,,, '&UDPSWHVWDQG,5
WHVWVZHUHFRQGXFWHGDWWKHHQGRIHDFKKHDWLQJ
SURFHVV 7KH ILUVW PHDVXUHPHQWV ZHUH WDNHQ LQ
3KDVH,DWFRLOWHPSHUDWXUHRIq&DIWHUKUV
7KH ILQDO PHDVXUHPHQWV ZHUH WDNHQ DW WKH HQG
RI 3KDVH ,,, DW q& DQG UHODWLYH KXPLGLW\ RI
 KUV DIWHU VKXW GRZQ RI WKH RYHQ $IWHU
3KDVH ,,, )'6 PHDVXUHPHQWV ZHUH DOVR WDNHQ
IRUFRPSDULVRQ

: FRLO ZKLFK ZDV IRXQG EH IDLUO\ GU\ ZDV
XVHG IRU PRLVWXUH LQMHFWLRQ SURFHVV :DWHU
LQJUHVV WR WKH JHQHUDWRU FKDPEHU RI WKH
8NXZHOD JHQHUDWRU KDG KDSSHQHG  WLPHV LQ
PLG V GXH WR KHDY\ OHDNDJHV IURP WKH
JHQHUDWRU FRROLQJ ZDWHU OLQHV 'XULQJ WKH
ODERUDWRU\ WHVWLQJ LW ZDV WULHG WR VLPXODWH WKH
VDPH FRQGLWLRQ LQ WKH ODERUDWRU\ WR LQYHVWLJDWH
WKH PRLVWXUH LQJUHVV WR WKH ZLQGLQJ 7KH FRLO
ZDV VXEPHUJHG XS WR WKH OHYHO RI WKH VHPL
FRQGXFWLYH OD\HU ZKLFK LV VLPLODU WR
VXEPHUJLQJ WKH ZLQGLQJ RYHUKDQJV RI WKH HQG
ZLQGLQJ RI WKH JHQHUDWRU VWDWRU ZLQGLQJ
7HVWLQJ RI '& UDPS DQG )'6 FRQWLQXHG DW
GLIIHUHQWWLPHLQWHUYDOV

 5HVXOWVDQG'LVFXVVLRQ

 (IIHFWRI'U\LQJ

)LJXUHVDQGVKRZWKH'&UDPSDQG)'6
UHVXOWV GXULQJ GU\LQJ SURFHVV IRU : ,Q DOO
FDVHV UHPRYDO RI PRLVWXUH IURP WKH ZLQGLQJ
ZDV FOHDUO\ LQGLFDWHG ,Q '& UDPS WHVW WKH
FXUUHQWOHYHOVDWN9EHFDPHORZDIWHUGU\LQJ
DQGZHUHFRPSDUDEOHZLWKGULHGZLQGLQJV7KH
LQLWLDO FXUUHQW OHYHO DW  N9 LH  P$ 
GURSSHG WR  P$ DIWHU WKH SKDVH , DQG LW ZDV
 P$ DW WKH HQG RI WHVW ,Q WKH ,5 WHVWV WKH
FKDUJLQJ FXUUHQWV GURSSHG VLJQLILFDQWO\ RUGHU
RIWLPHVDWV 7KHPHDVXUHG,5YDOXHV

ENGINEER


DW  N9 DW RQH PLQXWH ZHUH  0  0
DQG*UHVSHFWLYHO\7KHFRUUHVSRQGLQJ3,
YDOXHV ZHUH   DQG  UHVSHFWLYHO\ 7KH
UHVXOWV LQ WKH IUHTXHQF\ GRPDLQ LH WKH )'6
ZHUH DOVR FOHDUO\ VKRZHG UHGXFWLRQ RI &
ORVVHV  LH HYHQ XS WR RUGHU RI  WLPHV  VHH
ILJXUH 



&XUUHQW PLFUR$PSV

,Q FRPSDULVRQ WR : WKH VDPH SURFHGXUH ZDV


DGRSWHG IRU WKH DVSKDOW GU\ ZLQGLQJ :  1R
FOHDU GLIIHUHQFHV ZHUH REVHUYHG HLWKHU LQ '&
UDPSWHVWRU)'6UHVXOWVFRQILUPLQJWKDWWKH:
ZDVLQWKHGU\FRQGLWLRQ

,QWHUPHGLDWH>PHDVXUHG@

,QWHUPHGLDWH>&DOFXODWHG@

)LQDO>0HDVXUHG@

)LQDO>&DOFXODWHG@























9ROWDJH N9

)LJXUH   '& UDPS UHVXOWV IRU : GXULQJ


ZHWWLQJ


&
>:@'U\
&>:@'U\
&
>:@:HW
&>:@:HW
(

















9ROWDJH>N9@

(
(

&
EHIRUHGU\LQJ

&EHIRUHGU\LQJ

&
$IWHUGU\LQJ

&
$IWHUGU\LQJ

(

(

)LJXUH   '& UDPS WHVW UHVXOWV RI : GXULQJ


GU\LQJSURFHVV

(














)UHTXHQF\ +]


)LJXUH)'6UHVXOWVIRU:GXULQJZHWWLQJ

&RPSDULVRQRIWHVWPHWKRGV

(

)LJXUHVKRZVWKH'&UDPSWHVWUHVXOWVIRUDOO
IRXUZLQGLQJVDWWKHLQLWLDOVWDJH7KHPRGHOOHG
FXUYHV DUH DOVR LQFOXGHG IRU WKH FRPSDULVRQ
)LJXUHVKRZV)'6UHVXOWVRIHDFKZLQGLQJ


(
(
(
















)UHTXHQF\ +]

)LJXUH   )'6 WHVW UHVXOWV RI : GXULQJ


GU\LQJSURFHVV

 (IIHFWRIZHWWLQJ

)LJXUH  VKRZV WKH FRPSDULVRQ RI '& UDPS
WHVWUHVXOWVIRUZLQGLQJDWGLIIHUHQWLQWHUYDOV
)LJXUHVKRZVWKH)'6UHVXOWVDIWHURQHZHHN
RIPRLVWXUHLQJUHVV$FFRUGLQJWR'&UDPSWHVW
UHVXOWVWKH/&OHYHOVXQGHUUDPSHG'&YROWDJH
LQFUHDVHG GXULQJ ZHWWLQJ ,Q FRPSDULVRQ D
VLJQLILFDQW FKDQJH LQ ORVV FKDUDFWHULVWLFV FRXOG
EH VHHQ LQ )'6 UHVXOWV $IWHU ZHWWLQJ WKH ORVV
SHDN VKLIWHG DQG LQGLFDWHG DURXQG  +]
+RZHYHU WKH SHDN OHYHO LV OHVV VLJQLILFDQW
6LPLODUO\ WKH FKDQJH LQ FDSDFLWDQFH ZDV OHVV
VLJQLILFDQW %DVHG RQ WKHVH IDFWV LW LV FOHDU WKDW
SRO\HVWHU PLFD LQVXODWLRQ QHHG PRUH WLPH WR
EHFRPHZHW


ENGINEER

&XUUHQW>X$@IRU:



:>PHDVXUHG@

:>&DOFXODWHG@

:>PHDVXUHG@

:>&DOFXODWHG@

:>PHDVXUHG@

:>&DOFXODWHG@

:>PHDVXUHG@

:>&DOFXODWHG@













9ROWDJH>N9@

)LJXUH'&UDPSUHVXOWVRIZLQGLQJV

&XUUHQW>X$@IRU::DQG:

&DSDFLWDQFH )





&DSDFLWDQFH )

&XUUHQW>X$@



,QLWLDO>&DOFXODWHG@

&XUUHQW$IWHU+UV




,QLWLDO>PHDVXUHG@

&XUUHQW%HIRUH:HWWLQJ
&XUUHQW$IWHUZHHN





,Q JHQHUDO WKH WHVWV ZHUH FRQGXFWHG LQ VLPLODU


OHYHOV RI URRP WHPSHUDWXUHV LH q& VR
WKDW UHVXOWV FDQ EH FRPSDUHG ZLWKRXW
FRQVLGHULQJ WKH HIIHFW RI WHPSHUDWXUH RQ
GLHOHFWULFPDWHULDOV

28


(

&DSDFLWDQFH )

(

(

&
>:@

&>:@

&
>:@

&>:@

&
>:@

&>:@

&
>:@

&>:@

.HODQLWLVVD WXUER JHQHUDWRU 0RLVWXUH


DEVRUSWLRQ 

(IIHFW RI FOHDQLQJ DQG GU\LQJ ZDV VWXGLHG LQ


RQH RI WKH WXUER JHQHUDWRUV RI 0: FDSDFLW\
DW .HODQLWLVVD *DV WXUELQH SRZHU VWDWLRQ DQG
UHVXOWV DUH VKRZQ LQ )LJ  ,Q  WKLV
JHQHUDWRU WULSSHG ZLWK HDUWK IDXOW LQGLFDWLRQ
$W WKH WLPH RI WULSSLQJ LW ZDV UDLQLQJ KHDYLO\
&RROLQJ V\VWHP RI WKH JHQHUDWRU LV DQ RSHQ
V\VWHP XVLQJ RXW VLGH DLU 2XW VLGH DLU ZDV
WDNHQ WKURXJK D ILOWHU DQG DIWHU FRROLQJ RI WKH
JHQHUDWRU WKH DLU ZDV UHOHDVHG WR WKH
DWPRVSKHUH 

,QVXODWLRQ UHVLVWDQFH PHDVXUHPHQW ZDV QRW
SRVVLEOHVLQFHWKH,5DW9'&LQGLFDWH=HUR
'& UDPS WHVW ZDV GRQH RQ 0D\  
6XGGHQ XS WXUQ RI WKH OHDNDJH FXUUHQW ZDV
REVHUYHG GXULQJ WKH ILUVW PHDVXUHPHQW MXVW
DIWHU WKH JHQHUDWRU WULSSHG GXH WR HDUWK IDXOW
7KH WHVW ZDV LQWHUUXSWHG DW  N9 UHVXOWV LV
LQGLFDWHGDV

(

(

(

(










)UHTXHQF\ +]

)LJXUH)'6UHVXOWVIRUZLQGLQJV





%\ FRPSDULQJ GLIIHUHQW W\SHV RI LQVXODWLRQV


DVSKDOW SRO\HVWHU HSR[\  LW LV FRQVLGHUHG
HSR[\ LV VXSHULRU >@ DQG DVSKDOW PLFD
LQVXODWLRQ LV PRUH SURQH WR PRLVWXUH LQJUHVV
7KHUHVXOWVDOVRSURYHWKLVIRUDVSKDOWZLQGLQJV
: DQG :  E\ REWDLQLQJ KLJKHU OHDNDJH LQ
'&UDPSWHVWDQGKLJKORVVHVLQ)'6WHVW

7KH FRPSDULVRQ RI FDSDFLWDQFH DW LQILQLW\


SURYLGHV XVHIXO LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW WKH
GLPHQVLRQVRIWKHLQVXODWLRQDVZHOODVUHODWLYH
SHUPLWWLYLW\ 7KH FDSDFLWDQFH YDOXHV FDOFXODWHG
E\ ILWWLQJ WKH '& UDPS WHVW UHVXOWV ZHUH LQ
VLPLODUUDQJHZLWKWKHPHDVXUHG&LQ)'6WHVW


*HQHUDWRU VWDWRU ZLQGLQJ ZDV FOHDQHG DIWHU
UHPRYLQJURWRU GXUDWLRQRIFOHDQLQJZDVHLJKW
GD\V DQGWKHJHQHUDWRUZDVWHVWHGDJDLQXVLQJ
'& UDPS WHVW RQ 0D\   (YHQ DIWHU
FOHDQLQJWKHZLQGLQJIRUHLJKWGD\VQRQOLQHDU
SDWWHUQZDVVKRZQLQWKH'&UDPSWHVWUHVXOWV
DV LQGLFDWHG DV  FRQILUPLQJ
FRQVLGHUDEOH PRLVWXUH DEVRUSWLRQ LQ WKH
ZLQGLQJ 'U\LQJ RI WKH ZLQGLQJ FRQWLQXHG
XQWLO WKH OHDNDJH FXUUHQW FXUYHV DOPRVW
RYHUODSSHG )LQDO OHDNDJH FXUUHQW DW ZLQGLQJ
WHPSHUDWXUH RI  & ZDV $ DW N9
7KH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ LQVXODWLRQ UHVLVWDQFH ,5#
RQH PLQXWH  UHDGLQJ ZDV   0 '& UDPS
WHVW UHVXOWV GXULQJ WKH GU\LQJ RI WKH ZLQGLQJ
RQ -XQH   DQG -XQH   DUH DOVR
LQFOXGHGLQWKHILJXUH


 )LHOG,QYHVWLJDWLRQ


7KH SHULRGLF '& UDPS WHVWV DUH FRQGXFWHG RQ


JHQHUDWRUV GXULQJ WKHLU DQQXDO PDLQWHQDQFH
SHULRG ,Q WKLV ZRUN VRPH JHQHUDWRUV ZLWK
GLIIHUHQW W\SHV RI LQVXODWLRQ DVSKDOW SRO\HVWHU
DQGHSR[\ ZHUHVHOHFWHGDQGGHWDLOVDUHJLYHQ
LQ 7DEOH  6RPH H[WUDFWHG FDVHV DUH LOOXVWUDWHG
EHORZ

7DEOH'HWDLOVRIWKHWHVWHGJHQHUDWRU
ZLQGLQJV
9 ,QVXODWLRQ <HDU
6WDWLRQ
6
>0:@ >N9@
:36


$VSKDOW 
6DPDQDOD
  $VSKDOW 
1HZ

 3RO\HVWHU 
/D[DSDQD
8NXZHOD

 3RO\HVWHU 
%RZDWKHQQD


3RO\HVWHU 
.HODQLWLVVD


(SR[\

5DQGHQLJDOD


(SR[\

.RWPDOH


(SR[\








$IWHUDIDXOWRQ



$IWHUFOHDQLQJRQ

&XUUHQW>X$@



'XULQJGU\LQJRQ
$IWHUGU\LQJRQ









9ROWDJH>N9@





)LJXUH   '& 5DPS 7HVW UHVXOWV RI *7 5


3KDVH



29

ENGINEER


 .RWPDOH *HQHUDWRU &KDQJH RI
H[FLWDWLRQ 

.RWPDOH8JHQHUDWRUKDGEHHQRSHUDWHGZLWK
VWDWLFH[FLWDWLRQV\VWHPIRUPRUHWKDQ\HDUV
'XULQJ WKLV SHULRG WKH JHQHUDWRU ZLQGLQJV
ZHUH UHTXLUHG WR EH FOHDQHG UHJXODUO\ GXH WR
WKH GHSRVLWLRQ RI FDUERQ GXVW ([FLWDWLRQ ZDV
FKDQJHG WR EUXVKOHVV LQ  DQG )LJXUH 
VKRZV WKH '& UDPS WHVW UHVXOWV GXULQJ 
DQG  7KH UHVXOWV LQGLFDWH D VLJQLILFDQW
FKDQJH FXUUHQW PDLQO\ WKH FDSDFLWLYH
FRPSRQHQW GXHWRLPSURYHPHQW RIGU\QHVVRI
WKHJHQHUDWRUZLQGLQJV



5
<

<
%

%


:KHQ FRPSDULQJ WKH WHVW UHVXOWV GXULQJ 
DQG  QR VLJQLILFDQW FKDQJH  REVHUYHG
)XUWKHUSHULRGLFWHVWLQJDQGLQYHVWLJDWLRQRIWKH
WUHQG ZLOO SURYLGH WKH DJHLQJ HIIHFW RI WKH
ZLQGLQJ


*HQHUDWRU
*HQHUDWRU

&XUUHQW>X$@









5




 6XPPHU\DQG&RQFOXVLRQV


0RLVWXUHDEVRUSWLRQLQVWDWRUZLQGLQJLVRQHRI
WKH PDLQ UHDVRQV IRU JHQHUDWRU IDLOXUHV :KHQ
PRLVWXUH LV SUHVHQW WKH UHVLVWDQFH RI WKH VWDWRU
LQVXODWLRQ GURSV DOWHUQDWLYHO\ OHDNDJH FXUUHQW
DFWLYLW\LQFUHDVHV$FFRUGLQJO\OHDNDJHFXUUHQW
WKURXJK WKH LQVXODWLRQ EHFRPHV KLJK LQ '&
UDPS DQG SRODUL]DWLRQGHSRODUL]DWLRQ 3'& 
WHVWV 6LPLODUO\ ORVV WDQJHQW LQFUHDVHV LQ
IUHTXHQF\ GLHOHFWULF VSHFWURVFRS\ )'6  WHVW
ZKHUHDV SDUWLDO GLVFKDUJH 3'  WHVW VKRZV
LQFUHDVH3'OHYHO7KXVLQ WKLVVWXG\DWWHQWLRQ
ZDV SDLG WR WHVW GLIIHUHQW JHQHUDWRU ZLQGLQJV
XQGHU GLIIHUHQW PRLVWXUH FRQGLWLRQV DQG WR
LQYHVWLJDWH WKHLU SHUIRUPDQFHV ZLWK GLIIHUHQW
WHVW PHWKRGV LH '& UDPS 3'& ,5 )'6 DQG
3'WHVWV

7KH OHDNDJH FXUUHQW WKURXJK WKH LQVXODWLRQ LV
FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ LWV FDSDFLWLYH UHVLVWLYH DQG
SRODUL]DWLRQ FRPSRQHQWV $FFRUGLQJO\ UHODWLYH
SHUPLWWLYLW\ Hf  FRQGXFWLYLW\ V  DQG WKH
UHVSRQVHIXQFWLRQ I W RUWDQG FRPELQHVDQG
I W DUHWKHNH\SDUDPHWHUVGHVFULELQJWKHVWDWH
RI WKH LQVXODWLRQ 7KH 3'& WHVW SURYLGHV GLUHFW
FRUUHODWLRQ WR V DQG I W  ZKHUHDV WDQG DQG Hf
FDQ EH HDVLO\ IRXQG IURP )'6 WHVW +RZHYHU
ZKHQ WKH ,9 VLJQDWXUH RI '& UDPS WHVW LV
SURSHUO\PRGHOOHGDQGILWWHGZLWKWKHGLIIHUHQW
FXUUHQW FRPSRQHQWV WKH NH\ SDUDPHWHUV VXFK
DVHfVDQGI W FDQEHQXPHULFDOO\HYDOXDWHG
7KXV RQH FRXOG XVH '& UDPS WHVW DV D VLPSOH
DQGHIIHFWLYHILHOGWHVWWRHYDOXDWHWKHFRQGLWLRQ
RI JHQHUDWRU LQVXODWLRQ ,W LV VXJJHVWHG WKDW
SHULRGLFWHVWLQJWKH'&UDPSGXULQJWKHDQQXDO







9ROWDJH>N9@







)LJXUH   '& UDPS WHVW UHVXOWV RI .RWPDOH
8QLW  *HQHUDWRU GXULQJ  DQG  RQ
5<%SKDVHV

 :LPDODVXUDQGUDJHQHUDWRU

)LJXUH  VKRZV WKH '& UDPS WHVW UHVXOWV IRU
:LPDOVXUHQGUD JHQHUDWRU GXULQJ  
\HDUV  DQG   \HDUV  ,W LV LQWHUHVWLQJ WR
QRWHWKDWDVSKDOWPLFDLQVXODWLRQDJHGIRUPRUH
WKDQ  \HDUV VKRZHG FRPSDUDWLYHO\ JRRG
FXUUHQW OHYHOV LQ WKH '& UDPS WHVW 7KH
ODERUDWRU\ WHVWHG ZLQGLQJ :  ZKLFK ZDV
GULHG DERXW WKUHH GD\V LV DOVR VKRZQ LQ WKH
ILJXUH IRU FRPSDULVRQ ,Q :36 JHQHUDWRU 
ZLQGLQJVDUHFRQQHFWHGLQVHULHVDQGWKUHHVXFK
SDUDOOHOXQLWVDUHFRQQHFWHGWRRQHSKDVH6R,
9 FXUYH IRU VLQJOH ZLQGLQJ ZDV PRGLILHG WR
UHSUHVHQW WKH JHQHUDWRU  WLPHV RI WKH
FXUUHQW $FFRUGLQJWRWKHILJXUHWKHHVWLPDWHG
FXUUHQWOHYHOIRUWKHGULHG ZLQGLQJZDV KLJKHU
WKDQ WKH PHDVXUHG FXUUHQW RI WKH JHQHUDWRU
FRQILUPLQJ WKDW PRLVWXUH DEVRUSWLRQ ZDV QRW
IXOO\HYDSRUDWHGDQGVWLOOQHHGORQJHUSHULRGLQ
WKH GU\LQJ SURFHVV $W WKH VDPH WLPH WKH
FDSDFLWLYH FXUUHQW FRPSRQHQWV ZLQGLQJ DQG
WKH JHQHUDWRU  VHHP WR EH LQ WKH VDPH RUGHU


ENGINEER




)LJXUH   '& UDPS WHVW UHVXOWV RI
:LPDODVXUHQGUDJHQHUDWRU




9ROWDJH>N9@


& X XUHQW>X$ @

:LQGLQJGULHG

30


PDLQWHQDQFHSHULRGZLOOSURYLGHDUHFRUGRIWKH
VWDWH RI WKH LQVXODWLRQ DQG FDUHIXO REVHUYDWLRQ
RI WKH YDULDWLRQ RI WKH DERYH SDUDPHWHUV PD\
SURYLGH D FOHDU SLFWXUH DERXW IXWXUH XVDJH ,Q
WKLV SDSHU WKH DXWKRUV HODERUDWH WKH XVDJH RI
'& UDPS WHVW LQ FRQGLWLRQ DVVHVVPHQW E\ DQ
H[WHQVLYHODERUDWRU\LQYHVWLJDWLRQRQJHQHUDWRU
ZLQGLQJVDPSOHVDQGVHYHUDOFDVHVWXGLHVLQWKH
ILHOG

5HIHUHQFHV


 6WRQH*&%RXOWHU($&XOEHUW, 'KLUDQL


+ (OHFWULFDO ,QVXODWLRQ IRU 5RWDWLQJ 0DFKLQHV
'HVLJQ(YDOXDWLRQ$JHLQJ7HVWLQJDQGUHSDLU,(((
3UHVV,6%1

 ,((( 6WG  ,((( 5HFRPPHQGHG 3UDFWLFH IRU
7HVWLQJ ,QVXODWLRQ 7HVWLQJ RI $& (OHFWULF 0DFKLQHU\
9DQG$ERYH ZLWK+LJK'LUHFW9ROWDJH

'DYLG(*RGLQ7%HOOHPDUH- /DPDUUH/
0RGHOOLQJRIWKH'LHOHFWULF5HVSRQVHRID6WDWRU
:LQGLQJ,QVXODWLRQIURPD'&5DPS7HVW,(((
7UDQV RQ 'LHOHFWULFV DQG (OHFWULFDO ,QVXODWLRQ 9RO
1R'HFSS

-D\DQWKD *$ )HUQDQGR 0$50 
(NDQD\DNH&0%(YDOXDWLRQRIWKH&RQGLWLRQ
RI *URXQG :DOO ,QVXODWLRQ RI *HQHUDWRU 6WDWRU
:LQGLQJ 8VLQJ '& 5DPS 7HVW  ([SHULHQFH RQ
&(%+\GUR*HQHUDWRUV7UDQVRIWKH,QVWLWXWLRQRI
(QJLQHHUV 6/ 




&(% 5HSRUW RQ %RZDWHQQD 3RZHU 6WDWLRQ


5HKDELOLWDWLRQ
3URMHFW
5HSDLULQJ

&RPPLVVLRQLQJRI*HQHUDWRU9ROXPH

$FNQRZOHGJHPHQW


7KH DXWKRUV ZRXOG OLNH WR H[SUHVV WKHLU GHHS


JUDWLWXGHWR&(%DQG8QLYHUVLW\RI3HUDGHQL\D
WR FRQGXFW WKH WHVWV DQG SURYLGLQJ ZLQGLQJ
VDPSOHV


 5X[ /  'HUPLG % 0F $VVHVVLQJ WKH


&RQGLWLRQ RI +\GUR*HQHUDWRU 6WDWRU ,QVXODWLRQ
8VLQJ WKH 5DPSHG +LJK 'LUHFW9ROWDJH 7HVW

0HWKRG ,((((OHFWULFDO,QVXODWLRQ0DJD]LQH 9RO

1RSS



 ,((( 6WG  ,((( 5HFRPPHQGHG 3UDFWLFH IRU

7HVWLQJ,QVXODWLRQ5HVLVWDQFHRI5RWDWLQJ0DFKLQHU\


 )DUDKDQL 0 %RUVL +  *RFNHQEDFK (
'LHOHFWULF 5HVSRQVH 6WXGLHV RQ ,QVXODWLQJ
6\VWHP RI +LJK 9ROWDJH 5RWDWLQJ 0DFKLQHV
,((( 7UDQV RQ 'LHOHFWULFV DQG (OHFWULFDO ,QVXODWLRQ
9RO1R)HE

 (PHU\ (7 3DUWLDO 'LVFKDUJH 'LVVLSDWLRQ
)DFWRU DQG &RURQD $VSHFWV IRU +LJK 9ROWDJH
(OHFWULFDO *HQHUDWRU 6WDWRU %DUV DQG :LQGLQJV
,((( 7UDQV RQ 'LHOHFWULFV DQG (OHFWULFDO ,QVXODWLRQ
9RO1R$SULOSS

 .DXIKROG06FKDIHU.%DXHU.%HWKJH$ 
5LVVH-,QWHUIDFH3KHQRPHQDLQ6WDWRU:LQGLQJ
,QVXODWLRQ  &KDOOHQJHUV LQ 'HVLJQ 'LDJQRVWLFV
DQG6HUYLFH([SHULHQFH,((((OHFWULFDO,QVXODWLRQ
0DJD]LQH 9RO  1R  0DUFK$SULO  SS


 %RXOWHU ($  6WRQH *& +LVWRULFDO
'HYHORSPHQW RI 5RWRU DQG 6WDWRU :LQGLQJ
,QVXODWLRQ0DWHULDOVDQG6\VWHPV,((((OHFWULFDO
,QVXODWLRQ 0DJD]LQH 9RO  1R  0D\-XQH
SS

 -RQVFKHU $ . 'LHOHFWULF 5HOD[DWLRQ LQ 6ROLGV
&KHOVHD 'LHOHFWULFV 3UHVV /RQGRQ 8. ,6%1 





31

ENGINEER

ENGINEER - Vol. XXXXIV, No. 02, pp. [33-42], 2011


The Institution of Engineers, Sri Lanka

$VVHVVPHQWRI1HDUVKRUH:DYH&OLPDWHRIIWKH
6RXWKHUQ&RDVWRI6UL/DQND
33*XQDUDWQD'3/5DQDVLQJKHDQG7$16XJDQGLND


$EVWUDFW 1XPHULFDO PRGHOOLQJ RI ZDYH SURSDJDWLRQ ZDV FDUULHG RXW WR DVVHVV WKH YDULDELOLW\ RI
QHDUVKRUH ZDYH FOLPDWH RII WKH VRXWKHUQ FRDVW RI 6UL /DQND  7KH PRGHOOLQJ ZDV EDVHG RQ WKH
DSSOLFDWLRQRI0,.(6: )0 PRGHOLQDGRPDLQFRYHULQJWKHHQWLUHVRXWKHUQFRDVWDQGSDUWRIWKH
VRXWKHDVWHUQFRDVWRI6UL/DQNDZLWKWKHRIIVKRUHERXQGDU\ORFDWHGLQWKHGHHSVHD%DVHGRQPRGHO
UHVXOWVDZDYHWUDQVIRUPDWLRQPDWUL[DSSURDFKZDVXVHGWRWUDQVIRUPWKHDYDLODEOHZDYHGDWDIURP
WKUHH SDVW ZDYH UHFRUGLQJ ORFDWLRQV WR GHVLUHG ORFDWLRQV  6ZHOO DQG VHD ZDYH V\VWHPV ZHUH
FRQVLGHUHGVHSDUDWHO\ ZLWKDSSURSULDWHZLQGILHOGVLQWURGXFHGWRPRGHO VHDZDYHSURSDJDWLRQ7KH
VWXG\UHVXOWHGLQWKHHVWDEOLVKPHQWRIQHDUVKRUHZDYHVWDWLVWLFVRQDVHDVRQDOEDVLVIRUFRDVWDOVHFWRUV
DORQJWKHPRGHOGRPDLQ7KHVHZDYHVWDWLVWLFVDUHXVHIXOLQREWDLQLQJQHFHVVDU\GHVLJQSDUDPHWHUVIRU
DQ\SODQQHGFRDVWDODQGPDULQHVWUXFWXUHVZLWKLQWKHVHFRDVWDOVHFWRUVWKURXJKWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIORFDO
DUHDPRGHOV

.H\ZRUGV:DYHV6HD6ZHOO1HDUVKRUH




,QWURGXFWLRQ


,Q WKLV SDSHU D UHVHDUFK VWXG\ FDUULHG RXW WR
7KH HFRQRPLFDO DQG VDIH GHVLJQ RI FRDVWDO DQG
HVWDEOLVK QHDUVKRUH ZDYH FOLPDWH DORQJ WKH
KDUERXU VWUXFWXUHV UHTXLUH D UHDOLVWLF
VRXWKHUQ FRDVW RI 6UL /DQND XVLQJ QXPHULFDO
DVVHVVPHQW RI ZDYH FRQGLWLRQV WKH\ ZLOO EH
ZDYHSURSDJDWLRQPRGHOOLQJLVSUHVHQWHG7KH
VXEMHFWHG WR GXULQJ WKHLU OLIH WLPH 7KH
DSSURDFK DGRSWHG PDNHV RSWLPDO XVH RI ZDYH
VWUXFWXUHV QHHG WR EH GHVLJQHG WR ZLWKVWDQG
UHFRUGLQJV DYDLODEOH IURP IHZ ORFDWLRQV  7KH
H[WUHPH ZDYH FRQGLWLRQV WKDW WKH\ ZLOO EH
VWXG\ DUHD RI LQWHUHVW LV GLYLGHG LQWR VHJPHQWV
H[SRVHG WR GXULQJ WKHLU OLIHWLPH  :DYHV DQG
ZKHUH QHDUVKRUH ZDYH FOLPDWH RQ DQ DQQXDO
ZDYH LQGXFHG FXUUHQWV DUH WKH SULPDU\ VHD
DQGVHDVRQDOEDVLVLVREWDLQHGIRUDOOVHJPHQWV
PRWLRQV FDXVLQJ WUDQVSRUW RI VHGLPHQW LQ WKH
7KH H[WUHPH ZDYH RFFXUUHQFHV DUH DOVR
QHDUVKRUH DUHDV  7KH DVVRFLDWHG EHDFK SURILOH
GHWHUPLQHG E\ H[WUDSRODWLRQ RI ZDYH VWDWLVWLFV
DQG FRDVWOLQH FKDQJHV UHVXOW LQ HURVLRQ DQG RU
7KH RXWFRPH RI WKLV VWXG\ FRQVWLWXWHG D XVHIXO
DFFUHWLRQ DORQJ FRDVWOLQHV  ,Q RUGHU WR SUHGLFW
ZDYH GDWDEDVH IRU FRDVWDO HQJLQHHULQJ VWXGLHV
VXFK FKDQJHV NQRZOHGJH RI \HDU URXQG
IRU IXWXUH LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI GHYHORSPHQWV LQ
YDULDELOLW\ RI QHDUVKRUH ZDYH FOLPDWH LV
WKHFRDVWDO]RQHDORQJWKHVRXWKHUQFRDVWRI6UL
UHTXLUHG7KHHYDOXDWLRQRIHIIHFWLYHQHVVRIDQ\
/DQND
FRDVWDOVWDELOL]DWLRQVFKHPHGHVLJQHGWRFRQWURO

FRDVWDO HURVLRQ DOVR UHTXLUHV D SURSHU

:DYH &RQGLWLRQV RII WKH
DVVHVVPHQWRIZDYHFOLPDWH

6RXWKHUQ&RDVW
7KH LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ VHDVRQDO RU DQQXDO ZDYH

FOLPDWH DQG H[WUHPH ZDYH RFFXUUHQFHV FDQ EH
7KH ZDYH FOLPDWH RII WKH VRXWKHUQ FRDVW RI 6UL
REWDLQHG LQ WKLV ORQJ WHUP ZLWK DQ LQVWUXPHQW
/DQND LV FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ WKH \HDU URXQG
HQJDJHG IRU ZDYH UHFRUGLQJV LQ WKH VHD
+RZHYHU LW LV QRW IHDVLEOH WR XQGHUWDNH ZDYH
UHFRUGLQJV DW DOO ORFDWLRQV ZKHUH VXFK GDWD DUH
(QJ 'U 33*XQDUDWQD%6F(QJ 0RUDWXZD 
UHTXLUHG  ,QVWHDG WKH PRVW SUXGHQW DSSURDFK
&(QJ0,( 6UL/DQND 0(QJ $,7 3K' &ODUNVRQ 
0DULQH 3URMHFWV 6SHFLDOLVW &RDVWDO =RQH  :DWHUZD\V
LV WR FRQGXFW ZDYH UHFRUGLQJV DW VHOHFWHG IHZ
0DQDJHPHQW6HFWLRQ'XEDL0XQLFLSDOLW\'XEDL8$(
ORFDWLRQVDQGWUDQVIRUPWKHVHZDYHGDWDWRDQ\
(QJ'3/ 5DQDVLQJKH %6F (QJ 5XKXQD  $0,( 6UL
RWKHU GHVLUHG ORFDWLRQ  7KLV REMHFWLYH FDQ EH
/DQND  06F 0RUDWXZD  3K' &DQGLGDWH *UDGXDWH
6FKRRORI(QJLQHHULQJ7RKRNX8QLYHUVLW\-DSDQ
DFKLHYHG E\ QXPHULFDO ZDYH SURSDJDWLRQ
(QJ 0LVV 7$1 6XJDQGLND %6F (QJ 5XKXQD 
PRGHOOLQJ FRQVLGHULQJ YDULDWLRQ RI VHD EHG
$0,( 6UL /DQND  (QJLQHHULQJ 0DQDJHU /DQND +\GUDXOLF
EDWK\PHWU\
,QVWLWXWH.DWXEHGGD0RUDWXZD



33

ENGINEER

,QVWUXPHQW:DYH5HFRUGLQJV


RFFXUUHQFHRIORQJSHULRGVZHOOZDYHVDQGORFDO
ZLQGJHQHUDWHGVKRUWSHULRGVHDZDYHVPDLQO\
RIPRQVRRQDORULJLQ7KHVZHOOZDYHVDUHWKRVH
ZDYHV JHQHUDWHG LQ WKH VRXWKHUQ ,QGLDQ 2FHDQ
DQG KDYH SURSDJDWHG RXW RI WKH JHQHUDWLRQ
IHWFKHV7KHVHZDYHVDSSURDFKIURPDPRUHRU
OHVV VRXWKHUO\ GLUHFWLRQ LQ GHHS ZDWHU  7KH
PRVW YLROHQW DQG VLJQLILFDQW VHD ZDYHV DUH
ORFDOO\JHQHUDWHGGXHWRVRXWKZHVWPRQVRRQDO
ZLQGV  7KHVH ZDYHV DUH VWLOO EHLQJ JHQHUDWHG
E\ ZLQG ILHOGV ZKHQ DSSURDFKLQJ QHDUVKRUH
FRDVWDOZDWHUV$OWKRXJK VRXWKHUQFRDVWLV QRW
GLUHFWO\ LQIOXHQFHG E\ QRUWK HDVW PRQVRRQDO
ZHDWKHU WKH ZDYHV JHQHUDWHG E\ WKRVH ZLQG
ILHOGV DIIHFW WKH VRXWK HDVWHUQ SDUW RI WKH
VRXWKHUQ FRDVW DW D UHGXFHG VWUHQJWK  7KHVH
ZDYHV LQ SDUWLFXODU HIIHFW WKH VDIH QDYLJDWLRQ
DQGDQFKRUDJHRIILVKLQJFUDIWV

7KHVHDVRQDOYDULDELOLW\RIWKHZDYHFOLPDWHRII
WKH VRXWKHUQ FRDVW FDXVHV VSDWLDO DQG WHPSRUDO
FKDQJHV LQ VHGLPHQW WUDQVSRUW DQG FRDVWOLQHV
7KH PRVW YLROHQW VHD FRQGLWLRQV DUH REVHUYHG
GXULQJ WKH VRXWK ZHVW PRQVRRQ VHDVRQ GXULQJ
ZKLFK ERWK VHD DQG VZHOO ZDYHV RFFXU DW
PD[LPXP VWUHQJWK ,Q WKH VRXWK HDVWHUQ SDUW
ZKLFKLVDIIHFWHGE\ERWKPRQVRRQDOVHDZDYHV
VHYHUH VHGLPHQWDWLRQ SUREOHPV DUH SRVVLEOH
ZLWK .LULQGD ILVKHU\ KDUERXU EHLQJ D FODVVLFDO
H[DPSOH


,QVWUXPHQW ZDYH UHFRUGLQJV KDYH EHHQ


FRQGXFWHG RII WKH VRXWKHUQ FRDVW RI 6UL /DQND
VLQFH  RYHU LQWHUPLWWHQW SHULRGV )LJXUH  
7KHVH ZDYH PHDVXUHPHQWV PD\ EH EURDGO\
FODVVLILHGLQWRQRQGLUHFWLRQDOUHFRUGLQJV WKRVH
LQ ZKLFK RQO\ ZDYH KHLJKW DQG ZDYH SHULRG
SDUDPHWHUV DUH PHDVXUHG  DQG GLUHFWLRQDO
UHFRUGLQJV LQ ZKLFK ZDYH GLUHFWLRQ LV DOVR
PHDVXUHG   7DEOH  /+, >@  VXPPDUL]HV WKH
DYDLODEOH ZDYH GDWD IURP LQVWUXPHQW ZDYH
UHFRUGLQJVLQ6RXWKHUQ6UL/DQND

7KH PRVW FRPSUHKHQVLYH ZDYH GDWD EDVH
DYDLODEOH IRU WKH VRXWKHUQ FRDVW LV WKDW GXH WR
WKH GLUHFWLRQDO ZDYH UHFRUGLQJV FRQGXFWHG
DURXQG P ZDWHU GHSWK DERXW  NP RIIVKRUH
LQ*DOOHXQGHUWKH&&'*7=GLUHFWLRQDOZDYH
FOLPDWH VWXG\ 6FKHIIHUHWDO>@ 8QGHUWKLV
ZDYH UHFRUGLQJ SURJUDPPH XVLQJ D SLWFK DQG
UROO W\SH ZDYH SURILOLQJ EXR\ ZDYHV ZHUH
PHDVXUHG RYHU D WRWDO GXUDWLRQ RI DURXQG 
\HDUV GXULQJ WKH SHULRG  7KH UHFRUGHG
UDZGDWDKDGEHHQVXEMHFWHGWRVSHFWUDODQDO\VLV
DQGEDVHGRQDFXWRIIIUHTXHQF\WKHVZHOODQG
VHDZDYHV\VWHPVZHUHVHSDUDWHGDQGVWDWLVWLFDO
KHLJKW SHULRG DQG GLUHFWLRQ SDUDPHWHUV ZHUH
REWDLQHG IRU ERWK ZDYH V\VWHPV DV ZHOO DV IRU
WKHRYHUDOO FRPELQHGVHDDQGVZHOO ZDYHV

7DEOH7KH6XPPDU\RI$YDLODEOH:DYH'DWDLQ6RXWKHUQ6UL/DQND /+,>@ 


1R


/RFDWLRQ'HSW
K
*DOOH P 



*DOOH P 



7R

,QVWUXPHQW

'DWD7\SH

$XJ
$XJ
6HS
6HS
-XO

:DYH5LGHU%XR\

*DOOH P 

6HS
6HS
)HE
0D\
-XQ



*DOOH P 

-DQ

0DU

,QWHU2FHDQ6':(&0

'LUHFWLRQDO



)HE

,QWHU2FHDQ6':(&0

'LUHFWLRQDO



.XGDZHOOD
-DQ
P 
7DQJDOOH P  0D\

6HS

:DYH5LGHU%XR\



.LULQGD P 

0D\

0DU

:DYH5LGHU%XR\0DUVFK
0F%LUQH\(&0

1RQ
'LUHFWLRQDO
'LUHFWLRQDO



.LULQGD P 

0DU

$XJ

:DYH5LGHU%XR\0DUVFK
0F%LUQH\(&0

'LUHFWLRQDO



+DPEDQWRWD
P 
+DPEDQWRWD
P 

'HF

0DU

,QWHU2FHDQ6':(&0

'LUHFWLRQDO

$SU

-XQH

,QWHU2FHDQ6':(&0

'LUHFWLRQDO



)URP

ENGINEER

:$9(&3LWFKDQG5ROO
%XR\
0DUVFK0F%LUQH\(&0


34

1RQ
'LUHFWLRQDO
'LUHFWLRQDO
'LUHFWLRQDO








7KH FRDVWDO VHJPHQWV XVHG LQ WKH &&'*7=
GLUHFWLRQDO ZDYH FOLPDWH VWXG\ : : :

HWF  ZHUH UHWDLQHG DV WKH\ DUH DQG DGGLWLRQDO

VHJPHQWV FRYHULQJ VRXWKHUQ DQG SDUW RI VRXWK

HDVWHUQ FRDVWV 1 1 1 HWF  ZHUH

LQWURGXFHG )RU HDFK FRDVWDO VHJPHQW D

UHSUHVHQWDWLYH QHDUVKRUH ZDYH FOLPDWH ZDV

HVWDEOLVKHGDWPZDWHUGHSWK




0,.(  LV D WZR GLPHQVLRQDO PRGHOOLQJ

V\VWHP PDLQO\ XVHG LQ FRDVWDO HQJLQHHULQJ

DSSOLFDWLRQV GHYHORSHG DW 'DQLVK +\GUDXOLF

,QVWLWXWH 'HQPDUN  ,W FRQVLVWV RI

FRPSXWDWLRQDO PRGXOHV IRU K\GURG\QDPLFV

ZDYH SURSDJDWLRQ VHGLPHQW WUDQVSRUW

PRUSKRORJ\ DGYHFWLRQGLVSHUVLRQ SURFHVVHV

HWF  0,.(  6: )0  LV D VSHFWUDO ZDYH

PRGXOH ZLWKLQ 0,.(  FDSDEOH RI VLPXODWLQJ
)LJXUH/RFDWLRQVRI$YDLODEOH:DYH'DWDLQ
JURZWK GHFD\ DQG WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ RI ZLQG
6RXWKHUQ6UL/DQND
JHQHUDWHG ZDYHV DQG VZHOOV LQ RIIVKRUH DQG

FRDVWDO DUHDV ,W LV EDVHG RQ DQ XQVWUXFWXUHG
6WXG\0HWKRGRORJ\
PHVK GLVFUHWL]DWLRQ RI WKH PRGHO GRPDLQ 7KH

ZDYHSKHQRPHQDDFFRXQWHGIRUE\WKLVPRGXOH
7KH VWXG\ PHWKRGRORJ\ LV EDVHG RQ WKH
LQFOXGHVKRDOLQJUHIUDFWLRQGLIIUDFWLRQERWWRP
DSSOLFDWLRQ RI 0,.(  6: )0  PRGHO WR
IULFWLRQ ZDYH EUHDNLQJ ZDYH JURZWK E\ WKH
VLPXODWH ZDYH SURSDJDWLRQ RII WKH VRXWKHUQ
DFWLRQ RI ZLQG DQG ZDYHFXUUHQW LQWHUDFWLRQ
FRDVW DQG XVLQJ D ZDYH WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ PDWUL[
7KH FRQVHUYDWLRQ HTXDWLRQ RI ZDYH DFWLRQ LV
DSSURDFK WR WUDQVIRUP ZDYH UHFRUGLQJV EDVHG
VROYHG E\ D FHOO FHQWHUHG ILQLWH YROXPH VFKHPH
RQ PRGHO UHVXOWV  7KH VWXG\ DUHD ZDV GLYLGHG
LQWKHPRGHOGRPDLQZKLFKPD\EHGLVFUHWL]HG
LQWR VHJPHQWV ERXQGHG E\ SURPLQHQW
LQWR WULDQJXODU RU TXDGUDQJXODU HOHPHQWV  7KH
KHDGODQGV IRU WKH SXUSRVH RI GHWHUPLQLQJ
WLPHLQWHJUDWLRQLVSHUIRUPHGXVLQJDIUDFWLRQDO
QHDUVKRUHZDYHFOLPDWH )LJXUH 
VWHS DSSURDFK ZKHUH D PXOWL VHTXHQFH H[SOLFLW

PHWKRGLVDSSOLHGIRUWKHSURSDJDWLRQRIZDYH

DFWLRQ












































)LJXUH&RDVWDO6HJPHQWV&RQVLGHUHGIRU'HWHUPLQLQJ1HDUVKRUH:DYH&OLPDWH

35

ENGINEER






5HJLRQDO:DYH0RGHO



:DYH7UDQVIRUPDWLRQ0DWULFHV
























 )LJXUH5HJLRQDO:DYH0RGHO%DWK\PHWU\

7KH ZLQG GLUHFWLRQ ZDV DVVXPHG WR EH LQ WKH
VDPH GLUHFWLRQ DV WKH RIIVKRUH ZDYH GLUHFWLRQ
RYHUWKHHQWLUHPRGHOGRPDLQ

7DEOH$VVXPHG:LQG6SHHGVIRU2IIVKRUH
6LJQLILFDQW:DYH+HLJKWV

2IIVKRUH6LJQLILFDQW
:LQG6SHHG PV 
:DYH+HLJKW P 









7KH VSHFLILHG VLJQLILFDQW ZDYH KHLJKWV RI 
PPPDQGPZHUHDVVXPHGWR
UHSUHVHQW RIIVKRUH VLJQLILFDQW ZDYH KHLJKW
UDQJHVPPPDQG
PUHVSHFWLYHO\7KHVLPXODWLRQUHVXOWVIRU
WKH DERYH VSHFLILHG ZDYH FRQGLWLRQV ZHUH
H[WUDFWHG DW VRXUFH ZDYH GDWD UHFRUGLQJ
ORFDWLRQV DW *DOOH .XGDZHOOD DQG +DPEDQWRWD
DVZHOOLQDOOGHVWLQDWLRQORFDWLRQVUHSUHVHQWLQJ
VHOHFWHG FRDVWDO VHJPHQWV  7KHVH UHVXOWV ZHUH
WKHQRUJDQL]HGLQWRPDWULFHVDWHDFKORFDWLRQ
7KH URZV RI WKHVH PDWULFHV FRUUHVSRQG WR
RIIVKRUH ZDYH SHULRGV ZKLOH WKH FROXPQV
FRUUHVSRQG WR RIIVKRUH ZDYH GLUHFWLRQV  7KH
HOHPHQWV LQ WKH  PDWULFHV FRQVLVWHG RI ZDYH
KHLJKW UDWLRV ZDYH KHLJKW DW H[WUDFWHG
ORFDWLRQRIIVKRUH ZDYH KHLJKW  ZDYH SHULRGV
DW H[WUDFWHG ORFDWLRQV DQG ZDYH GLUHFWLRQV DW
H[WUDFWHGORFDWLRQV


7KH 5HJLRQDO :DYH 0RGHO IRU ZDYH
SURSDJDWLRQ VLPXODWLRQV ZDV HVWDEOLVKHG E\
GLJLWL]LQJ IURP WKH $GPLUDOW\ &KDUWV 
DQG 7KHH[WHQWRIWKHPRGHOFRYHUHG
WKH HQWLUH VRXWKHUQ FRDVW DQG SDUW RI WKH VRXWK
HDVWHUQFRDVWDVZHOO7KHRIIVKRUHERXQGDU\RI
WKHPRGHOZDVH[WHQGHGWRGHHSZDWHULQH[FHVV
RIP7KHPRGHOEDWK\PHWU\LVGHSLFWHG
LQ )LJXUH   $ WZR OHYHO PHVK UHVROXWLRQ ZDV
XVHG ZLWK D UHODWLYHO\ ILQH UHVROXWLRQ DGRSWHG
LQVKDOORZQHDUVKRUHDUHDV


:DYHSURSDJDWLRQPRGHOOLQJZDVFDUULHGRXWWR
WUDQVIRUP ZDYH UHFRUGLQJV IURP  ORFDWLRQV
*DOOH +DPEDQWRWD DQG .XGDZHOOD  WR
UHSUHVHQWORFDWLRQVDWPGHSWKLQWKHVHOHFWHG
FRDVWDOVHJPHQWV6LQFHWKHUHFRUGLQJORFDWLRQV
DUH VFDWWHUHG DW GLIIHUHQW ZDWHU GHSWKV LQ WKH
SURFHGXUH DGRSWHG DOO ZDYH UHFRUGLQJV ZHUH
WUDQVIRUPHG WR WKH RIIVKRUH ERXQGDU\ RI WKH
PRGHO DQG WKHUHDIWHU WUDQVIRUPHG EDFN WR WKH
GHVLUHG GHVWLQDWLRQ ORFDWLRQV  6LQFH
WUDQVIRUPLQJ VHYHUDO WKRXVDQGV RI LQGLYLGXDO
ZDYH UHFRUGLQJV LV D FXPEHUVRPH SURFHVV D
WUDQVIRUPDWLRQPDWUL[DSSURDFKIXQFWLRQLQJRQ
WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ RI VHOHFWHG VHW RI ZDYH
FRQGLWLRQV DW WKH RIIVKRUH ERXQGDU\ ZDV
DGRSWHG$VHWRIZDYHFRQGLWLRQVFRPSULVLQJ
FRPELQDWLRQV RI IROORZLQJ ZDYH SDUDPHWHUV
ZHUHVSHFLILHGDWWKHRIIVKRUHERXQGDU\

6HD:DYHV
6LJQLILFDQW:DYH+HLJKWVPPP
P
3HDN:DYH3HULRGVVVV
0HDQ:DYH'LUHFWLRQV 

6ZHOO:DYHV
6LJQLILFDQW:DYH+HLJKWVPPP
P
3HDN:DYH3HULRGVVVV
0HDQ:DYH'LUHFWLRQV 

,Q WKH FDVH RI VHD ZDYHV WKH\ DUH VWLOO EHLQJ
JHQHUDWHG E\ WKH ORFDO ZLQG ILHOGV  'DWD RQ
ORFDO ZLQG ILHOGV RYHU RSHQ VHD JHQHUDWLQJ
ZDYHVDUHQRWDYDLODEOH,QWKHDEVHQFHRIVXFK
GDWD LQ WKH VLPXODWLRQ RI VHD ZDYHV D ZLQG
VSHHG FRUUHODWHG ZLWK WKH RIIVKRUH VLJQLILFDQW
ZDYH KHLJKW ZDV DSSOLHG RYHU WKH PRGHO
GRPDLQ EDVHG RQ %HDXIRUW VFDOH GHVFULSWLRQ RI
PDULQHZHDWKHU>@DVJLYHQLQ7DEOH

ENGINEER

36



+DYLQJ HVWDEOLVKHG WKH ZDYH WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ
PDWULFHV LQGLYLGXDO ZDYH UHFRUGLQJV ZHUH
WUDQVIRUPHG WR GHVLUHG ORFDWLRQV E\
LQWHUSRODWLQJIURPWKHWUDQVIRUPDWLRQPDWULFHV
7KLV ZDV D WZRZD\ SURFHVV LQ ZKLFK ILUVWO\
ZDYH UHFRUGLQJV ZHUH WUDQVIRUPHG WR RIIVKRUH
ERXQGDU\ DQG WKHQ WUDQVIRUPHG EDFN WR WKH
GHVLUHG GHVWLQDWLRQ ORFDWLRQ ,Q WKH FDVH RI VHD
ZDYHVZDYHSHULRGDOVRFKDQJHVGXHWRHQHUJ\
WUDQVIHU IURP ZLQG  $V VXFK GLUHFW
LQWHUSRODWLRQ IURP ZDYH WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ
PDWULFHV LV QRW SRVVLEOH ZKHQ WUDQVIRUPLQJ
VRXUFH ZDYH SDUDPHWHUV WR WKH RIIVKRUH
ERXQGDU\  7KLV WDVN KDG WR EH DFFRPSOLVKHG
LWHUDWLYHO\ VWDUWLQJ ZLWK WKH LQLWLDO DVVXPSWLRQ
WKDW RIIVKRUH ZDYH SHULRG LV VDPH DV WKDW
UHFRUGHGDWWKHVRXUFHZDYHGDWDORFDWLRQ'XH
WRQRQFRQYHUJHQFHRILWHUDWLRQVRUGXHWRZDYH
SDUDPHWHUV O\LQJ RXWVLGH WKH UDQJH RI
WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ PDWULFHV LW LV QRW SRVVLEOH WR
WUDQVIRUP DOO ZDYH UHFRUGLQJV IURP D VRXUFH
ZDYHGDWDORFDWLRQWRDGHVWLQDWLRQORFDWLRQ





7KH WUDQVIRUPHG ZDYH GDWD IURP *DOOH ZHUH
WKHQ FRPSDUHG ZLWK DFWXDO ZDYH UHFRUGLQJV DW
WKHVH ORFDWLRQV IRU WKH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ VHDVRQV
6LQFH WKHUH ZDV QR RYHUODS EHWZHHQ DQ\ RI
WKHVH ZDYH UHFRUGLQJV FRPSDULVRQ ZDV PDGH
RQ D VWDWLVWLFDO EDVLV  6LQFH *DOOH ZDYH
UHFRUGLQJV DUH RI D ORQJHU GXUDWLRQ LW LV OLNHO\
WKDWGDWDWUDQVIRUPHGIURP*DOOHWR.XGDZHOOD
RU +DPEDQWRWD ZLOO FRQWDLQ KLJKHU ZDYHV WKDQ
WKRVH UHFRUGHG DW WKHVH WZR ORFDWLRQV
7KHUHIRUHLQWKHVWDWLVWLFDOFRPSDULVRQRQO\WKH
GLUHFWLRQDO GLVWULEXWLRQV RI ZDYHV ZHUH
FRQVLGHUHGE\FRPSDULQJZDYHDPSOLWXGHV

7KHFRPSDULVRQRIGLUHFWLRQDOZDYHDPSOLWXGHV
LQGLFDWHG PLVPDWFKHV RI ZDYH DPSOLWXGHV IRU
VHD ZDYHV DW .XGDZHOOD DQG +DPEDQWRWD IRU
WKH 6: PRQVRRQ VHDVRQ )LJXUHV  DQG    $
VLPLODU PLVPDWFK ZDV DOVR IRXQG DW
+DPEDQWRWDIRU,0VHDVRQ

7KHUHIRUHVHDZDYHVWUDQVIRUPHGIURP*DOOHWR
ERWK +DPEDQWRWD DQG .XGDZHOOD VKRZHG
PLVPDWFK LQ GLUHFWLRQ GLVWULEXWLRQ ZLWK
UHFRUGHG ZDYHV IRU 6: PRQVRRQ VHD ZDYHV
7KLV LV LQGLFDWHG LQ ILJXUHV  DQG 
$GGLWLRQDOO\ IRU VHD ZDYHV LQ ,0 VHDVRQ DOVR
VLPLODU PLVPDWFK ZDV IRXQG RQO\ DW
+DPEDQWRWD7KLVLVQRWLQGLFDWHGLQDILJXUHLQ
RUGHU WR OLPLW WKH QXPEHU RI ILJXUHV ,QVWHDG D
FDVH ZKHUH GLUHFWLRQDO GLVWULEXWLRQV PDWFKHG
ZLWKHDFKRWKHUIRUVZHOOZDYHV6:PRQVRRQDW
.XGDZHOODLVLQGLFDWHGLQ)LJXUH$SDUWIURP
ZDYH GDWD IURP .XGDZHOOD DQG +DPEDQWRWD
ZLWK WKLV GLUHFWLRQDO PLVPDWFK DOO RWKHU ZDYH
GDWD ZHUH WUDQVIRUPHG WR DOO GHVWLQDWLRQ
ORFDWLRQVDQGFRPELQHGRQDVHDVRQDOEDVLVIRU
WKHWZRZDYHV\VWHPV




















&RPSDULVRQ RI 7UDQVIRUPHG


DQG5HFRUGHG:DYH'DWD


'LUHFWLRQDO ZDYH UHFRUGLQJV DW *DOOH KDG EHHQ
FRQGXFWHGLQGHHSZDWHUDQGFDQEHFRQVLGHUHG
DV UHSUHVHQWDWLYH IRU D ODUJH FRDVWDO VWUHWFK
7KHUHIRUHZDYHGDWDWUDQVIRUPHGIURP*DOOHWR
DQ\ QHDUVKRUH ORFDWLRQ RQ WKH VRXWKHUQ FRDVW
FDQEHFRQVLGHUHGWRUHSUHVHQWWKHZDYHFOLPDWH
DW WKDW ORFDWLRQ  +RZHYHU ZDYH UHFRUGLQJV
IURPWKHWZRQHDUVKRUHORFDWLRQVDW.XGDZHOOD
DQG +DPEDQWRWD QHHG WR EH YHULILHG SULRU WR
WUDQVIRUPLQJ WKHP WR RWKHU ORFDWLRQV 7KLV
YHULILFDWLRQ SURFHVV ZDV FDUULHG RXW E\
WUDQVIRUPLQJ *DOOH ZDYH GDWD WR .XGDZHOOD
DQG +DPEDQWRWD  7KH WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ ZDV
FDUULHG RXW RQ D  VHDVRQ EDVLV VHSDUDWHO\ IRU
VHD DQG VZHOO ZDYH V\VWHPV  7KH  VHDVRQV RI
WKH\HDUFRQVLGHUHGZHUH

6RXWK :HVW 0RQVRRQ VHDVRQ 6:   0D\ WR
6HSWHPEHU 
,QWHU PRQVRRQ  6HDVRQ ,0   2FWREHU WR
1RYHPEHU 
1RUWK (DVW 0RQVRRQ 6HDVRQ 1(   'HFHPEHU
WR)HEUXDU\ 
,QWHU PRQVRRQ  6HDVRQ ,0   0DUFK WR
$SULO 







37

ENGINEER
















D 7UDQVIRUPHGIURP*DOOH2IIVKRUH 

E 5HFRUGHGDW.XGDZHOOD

)LJXUH:DYH5RVHVIRU.XGDZHOODDWP:DWHU'HSWKIRU6:0RQVRRQ6HD:DYHV


















D 7UDQVIRUPHGIURP*DOOH2IIVKRUH 


E 5HFRUGHGDW+DPEDQWRWD

)LJXUH:DYH5RVHVIRU+DPEDQWRWDDWP:DWHU'HSWKIRU6:0RQVRRQ6HD:DYHV





















D 7UDQVIRUPHGIURP*DOOH2IIVKRUH 


E 5HFRUGHGDW.XGDZHOOD
)LJXUH:DYH5RVHVIRU.XGDZHOODDWP:DWHU'HSWKIRU6:0RQVRRQ6ZHOO:DYHV


ENGINEER

38



1HDUVKRUH'LUHFWLRQDO:DYH
6WDWLVWLFV

5HODWLYH:HLJKW VHDZDYHV  


+ PR
VHD

  


+

+
PR VHD
PR VZHOO
$SDUW IURP ZDYH GDWD IURP .XGDZHOOD DQG
+DPEDQWRWDIRUWKHVHDVRQVZKLFKPLVPDWFKHG

ZLWK WUDQVIRUPHG ZDYH GDWD IURP *DOOH
5HODWLYH:HLJKW VZHOOZDYHV  
RIIVKRUH DOO RWKHU ZDYH GDWD UHFRUGLQJV ZHUH

+ PR
VZHOO
WUDQVIRUPHGWRUHSUHVHQWDWLYHORFDWLRQVDWP
  


ZDWHU GHSWK LQ VHOHFWHG FRDVWDO VHJPHQWV  7KH
+ PR VHD  + PR
VZHOO
WUDQVIRUPHG ZDYH GDWD IURP GLIIHUHQW VRXUFHV

ZHUH FRPELQHG DQG EDVHG RQ ZDYH GDWD WLPH
7KH VHFRQG UHODWLYH ZHLJKW LV DSSOLHG RQ D
VHULHVREWDLQHGGLUHFWLRQDOZDYHVWDWLVWLFVZHUH
VHDVRQDOEDVLVEDVHGRQWKHIUDFWLRQ RIQXPEHU
REWDLQHGRQDVHDVRQDOEDVLV
RI GD\V RI WKH \HDU FRQWDLQHG LQ D SDUWLFXODU

VHDVRQ2YHUDOOZHLJKWLQJIDFWRUVRQDVHDVRQDO
$ URXJK HVWLPDWH RI UHODWLYH VWUHQJWKV RI VHD
EDVLV ZHUH REWDLQHG E\ PXOWLSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH
DQGVZHOOZDYHV\VWHPVLQDQ\FRDVWDOVHJPHQW
WZRZHLJKWLQJIDFWRUV7KHVXPPDWLRQRIWKHVH
FDQ EH REWDLQHG E\ FRQVLGHUDWLRQ RI WZR
VHDVRQDO ZHLJKWLQJ IDFWRUV UHVXOWV LQ RYHUDOO
ZHLJKWLQJIDFWRUV 7KHILUVWRIWKHVHZHLJKWLQJ
DQQXDO ZHLJKWLQJ IDFWRUV IRU WKH WZR ZDYH
IDFWRUVLVEDVHGRQWKHFRPSDULVRQRIVTXDUHRI
V\VWHPV  7KH UHVXOWV DUH JLYHQ EHORZ IRU WKH
WKHKHLJKWVRIDYHUDJHVLJQLILFDQWZDYHKHLJKWV
FRDVWDOVHFWRUV::DQG1LQ7DEOHVWR
+P  IRU VHD DQG VZHOO ZDYH V\VWHPV VLQFH

ZDYHHQHUJ\LVSURSRUWLRQDOWRWKHVTXDUHRIWKH

ZDYHKHLJKW$FFRUGLQJO\




7DEOH5HODWLYH6WUHQJWKVDW6HDDQG6ZHOO:DYHVLQ&RDVWDO6HJPHQW:























7DEOH5HODWLYH6WUHQJWKVDW6HDDQG6ZHOO:DYHVLQ&RDVWDO6HJPHQW:













7DEOH5HODWLYH6WUHQJWKVDW6HDDQG6ZHOO:DYHVLQ&RDVWDO6HJPHQW1










$YH$YHUDJH6LJQLILFDQW:DYH+HLJKW

39

ENGINEER


:KHUH D  E  DQG J  DUH WKH SDUDPHWHUV RI WKH
GLVWULEXWLRQV

,Q WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI WKLV PHWKRG VHOHFWHG 1
QXPEHUV RI SHDN ZDYH KHLJKWV ZHUH DUUDQJHG
LQ WKH GHVFHQGLQJ RUGHU RI PDJQLWXGH ZLWK DQ
DVVLJQHG UDQNLQJ RI  IRU WKH KLJKHVW ZDYH
KHLJKWDQGWKHORZHVWZDYHKHLJKWUHFHLYLQJWKH
UDQN 1  7KH SUREDELOLW\ RI H[FHHGDQFH 4 LV
GHILQHGDV
L  F
4

  
1  F

7KHVH FRDVWDO VHFWRUV ZHUH VHOHFWHG WR


GHPRQVWUDWH FOHDUO\ WKH VSDWLDO YDULDWLRQ RI
ZDYH KHLJKWV DV : DQG 1 DUH ORFDWHG DW
H[WUHPH HQGV RI VRXWKHUQ FRDVW DQG : DW WKH
FHQWUHRIWKHVRXWKHUQFRDVW

7KH UHVXOWV H[WUDFWHG IURP WKH DERYH DQDO\VLV
JLYHQLQ7DEOHVWRLQGLFDWHWKDWVZHOOZDYHV
DUHVRPHZKDWVWURQJHUFRPSDUHGWRVHDZDYHV
LQ WHUPV RI FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH DQQXDO ZDYH
HQHUJ\ DOWKRXJK FRQVLGHUDEO\ KLJK VHD ZDYHV
GR RFFXU GXULQJ VRXWK ZHVW PRQVRRQ VHDVRQ
0RYLQJ WRZDUGV WKH VRXWK HDVWHUQ SDUW RI WKH
VRXWKHUQ FRDVW PDUNHG LQIOXHQFH RI QRUWK HDVW
PRQVRRQDO VHD ZDYHV LV VHHQ  7KLV LV FOHDUO\
LQGLFDWHGLQ7DEOHIRUWKHQRUWKHDVWPRQVRRQ
VHDVRQ IRU WKH 1 FRDVWDO VHJPHQW ZKHUH VHD
ZDYHV DUH VHHQ WR FRQWULEXWH PRUH WKDQ 
SHUFHQW RI ZDYH HQHUJ\ FRPSDUHG WR VZHOO
ZDYHV


7KH YDOXHV RI WKH FRQVWDQWV F   DQG F   IRU WKH


WZRSUREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQVZHUHHVWLPDWHGDV

*XPEHO'LVWULEXWLRQ F   DQG F   
:HLEXOO'LVWULEXWLRQ

F

   D  DQG

F     D 

7KH SDUDPHWHUV E DQG J RI WKH *XPEHO

1HDUVKRUH([WUHPH:DYHV
'LVWULEXWLRQ ZHUH GHWHUPLQHG E\ OLQHDU

UHJUHVVLRQDQDO\VLVEDVHGRQDUHDUUDQJHGIRUP
7KH H[WUHPH RFFXUUHQFHV RI ZDYHV QHHG WR EH
RI (T    ,Q WKH FDVH RI :HLEXOO 'LVWULEXWLRQ
DVVHVVHG LQ WKH GHVLJQ RI FRDVWDO DQG PDULQH
IRUVSHFLILHGYDOXHRI D  WKHSDUDPHWHUV E DQG
VWUXFWXUHV  7KH H[WUHPH ZDYH KHLJKWV FDQ EH
J  ZHUH GHWHUPLQHG E\ D VLPLODU SURFHGXUH
GHWHUPLQHG E\ H[WUDSRODWLQJ WKH SHDN ZDYH
EDVHG RQ (T    8SRQ GHWHUPLQDWLRQ RI
KHLJKWV RFFXUULQJ GXULQJ VWRUP HYHQWV XVLQJ
SDUDPHWHUV RI WKH SUREDELOLW\ GLVWULEXWLRQV WKH
DSSURSULDWH SUREDELOLW\ GLVWULEXWLRQV  ,Q WKH
ZDYH KHLJKWV RI DQ\ GHVLUHG UHWXUQ SHULRG 75 
FDVH RI VZHOO ZDYHV KLJK ZDYHV KDYH RFFXUUHG
PRUH RU OHVV GXULQJ VRXWK ZHVW PRQVRRQ
LQ\HDUVFDQEHFRPSXWHGIURP(TV  RU  DV
VHDVRQ  7KLV LV DOVR WUXH IRU WKH VHD ZDYHV DV
DSSURSULDWHVLQFHWKHSUREDELOLW\RIH[FHHGDQFH
ZHOO  +RZHYHU QRUWK HDVW PRQVRRQDO ZLQG 
4 LVUHODWHGWRUHWXUQSHULRGDV
LQGXFHGH[WUHPHVHDZDYHVDUHLPSRUWDQWLQWKH


  
4
VRXWKHDVWHUQSDUWRIWKHVRXWKHUQFRDVWGXHWR
O75
WKHLUGLVWLQFWO\GLIIHUHQWGLUHFWLRQRIDSSURDFK
,QZKLFK O LVWKHQXPEHURIVWRUPHYHQWVSHU

\HDUZKLFKLV
NQRZQVLQFHWKHGXUDWLRQRI WKH
([WUHPH ZDYH KHLJKWV ZHUH GHWHUPLQHG E\
WUDQVIRUPHGZDYHKHLJKWWLPHVHULHVLVNQRZQ
XVLQJ *XPEHO DQG :HLEXOO SUREDELOLW\
)RU D SDUWLFXODU VHW RI VHOHFWHG SHDN ZDYH
GLVWULEXWLRQV WR H[WUDSRODWH SHDN ZDYH KHLJKWV
KHLJKWV RI VWRUP HYHQWV *XPEHO DQG :HLEXOO
RFFXUULQJ LQ LQGHSHQGHQW VWRUP HYHQWV
'LVWULEXWLRQV IRU YDU\LQJ YDOXHV RI
H[FHHGLQJ D VHOHFWHG WKUHVKROG ZDYH KHLJKW
SDUDPHWHU D  ZHUH DSSOLHG WR SUHGLFW H[WUHPH
.DPSKXLV>@ 7KHSUREDELOLW\RIH[FHHGDQFH
ZDYH KHLJKWV RI GLIIHUHQW UHWXUQ SHULRGV  7KH
ZKLFK LV WKH SUREDELOLW\ WKDW DQ\ ZDYH KHLJKW
VHW RI H[WUHPH ZDYH KHLJKWV UHVXOWLQJ IURP WKH
+H[FHHGLQJDVSHFLILHGZDYHKHLJKW+DVSHU
KLJKHVW FRHIILFLHQW RI FRUUHODWLRQ LQ WKH
WKHVHWZRSUREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQVLVJLYHQE\
UHJUHVVLRQ DQDO\VLV ZDV VHOHFWHG DV WKH PRVW

UHSUHVHQWDWLYH7KHVXPPDUL]HGUHVXOWVIRUWKH
*XPEHO'LVWULEXWLRQ
WKUHH VHOHFWHG FRDVWDO VHFWRUV DUH WDEXODWHG IRU

+  J
WKH FRDVWDO VHFWRUV : : DQG 1 LQ 7DEOHV 
4 4 +
! +   H[S H[S 

E

WR,WVKRXOGEHQRWHGWKDWFRDVWDOVHFWRUV:

DQG:DUHKDUGO\LQIOXHQFHGE\1(PRQVRRQ
  
VHD ZDYHV DQG WKHUHIRUH H[WUHPH ZDYH KHLJKWV

ZHUHQRWGHWHUPLQHGIRUWKLVVHDVRQ
:HLEXOO'LVWULEXWLRQ

+  J D

4 4 +
! +   H[S  

E




  

ENGINEER

40


7DEOH([WUHPH6LJQLILFDQW:DYH+HLJKWVIRU6HDDQG6ZHOO:DYHVLQ&RDVWDO6HJPHQW:

:DYH&RQGLWLRQV
6HD:DYHV6:0RQVRRQ6HDVRQ
3UREDELOLW\'LVWULEXWLRQ:HLEXO D  
&RUUHODWLRQ&RHIILFLHQW

6ZHOO:DYHV6:0RQVRRQ6HDVRQ
3UREDELOLW\'LVWULEXWLRQ:HLEXO D  
&RUUHODWLRQ&RHIILFLHQW

([WUHPH:DYH+HLJKWV P IRU'LIIHUHQW5HWXUQ
3HULRGV <HDUV 
<U

<U

<U

<U

<U

<U



























7DEOH([WUHPH6LJQLILFDQW:DYH+HLJKWVIRU6HDDQG6ZHOO:DYHVLQ&RDVWDO6HJPHQW:

:DYH&RQGLWLRQV
6HD:DYHV6:0RQVRRQ6HDVRQ
3UREDELOLW\'LVWULEXWLRQ:HLEXO D  
&RUUHODWLRQ&RHIILFLHQW

6ZHOO:DYHV6:0RQVRRQ6HDVRQ
3UREDELOLW\'LVWULEXWLRQ:HLEXO D  
&RUUHODWLRQ&RHIILFLHQW

([WUHPH:DYH+HLJKWV P IRU'LIIHUHQW5HWXUQ
3HULRGV <HDUV 
<U

<U

<U

<U

<U

<U



























7DEOH([WUHPH6LJQLILFDQW:DYH+HLJKWVIRU6HDDQG6ZHOO:DYHVLQ&RDVWDO6HJPHQW1

:DYH&RQGLWLRQV





6HD:DYHV6:0RQVRRQ6HDVRQ
3UREDELOLW\'LVWULEXWLRQ:HLEXO D  
&RUUHODWLRQ&RHIILFLHQW

6ZHOO:DYHV6:0RQVRRQ6HDVRQ
3UREDELOLW\'LVWULEXWLRQ:HLEXO D  
&RUUHODWLRQ&RHIILFLHQW

6HD:DYHV1(0RQVRRQ6HDVRQ
3UREDELOLW\'LVWULEXWLRQ:HLEXO D  
&RUUHODWLRQ&RHIILFLHQW


([WUHPH:DYH+HLJKWV P IRU'LIIHUHQW5HWXUQ
3HULRGV <HDUV 
<U
<U
<U <U
<U <U




































41

ENGINEER



&RQFOXVLRQV



















































7KH YDULDELOLW\ RI ZDYH FOLPDWH DORQJ WKH
VRXWKHUQ FRDVW RI 6UL /DQND ZDV DVVHVVHG
WKURXJK
QXPHULFDO
ZDYH
SURSDJDWLRQ
PRGHOOLQJ PDNLQJ XVH RI ZDYH UHFRUGLQJV
DYDLODEOH DW WKUHH ORFDWLRQV LQ WKH VWXG\ DUHD
$OWKRXJKLQIRUPDWLRQRQRIIVKRUHZDYHFOLPDWH
LQWKHVWXG\DUHDZDVQRWDYDLODEOHWKURXJKWKH
DSSOLFDWLRQ RI ZDYH WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ PDWUL[
DSSURDFKLWZDVSRVVLEOHWRWUDQVIRUPZDYHVWR
DQ\ GHVLUHG ORFDWLRQ IURP WKH WKUHH VRXUFH
ZDYH GDWD ORFDWLRQV DW *DOOH .XGDZHOOD DQG
+DPEDQWRWD 7KH VWXG\ ILQGLQJV DUH XVHIXO LQ
DVVHVVLQJH[WUHPHZDYHFRQGLWLRQVDQQXDODQG
VHDVRQDO ZDYH FOLPDWH IRU OLWWRUDO GULIW
FDOFXODWLRQV DQG VKRUHOLQH FKDQJHV LQ GLIIHUHQW
VHFWRUVRIWKHVWXG\DUHD


5HIHUHQFHV


 .DPSKXLV :LOOLDP - ,QWURGXFWLRQ WR &RDVWDO


(QJLQHHULQJDQG0DQDJHPHQW:RUOG6FLHQWLILF
6LQJDSRUHSS

 /DQND +\GUDXOLF ,QVWLWXWH /+,  +DPEDQWRWD
6HDSRUW 'HYHORSPHQW 3KDVH ,  0DWKHPDWLFDO
0RGHO 7HVW RQ :DYH )LHOG $ 5HSRUW SUHSDUHG
IRU6UL/DQND3RUWV$XWKRULW\

 6FKHIIHU+-)HUQDQGR.50'DQG)LWWVFKHQ
7 'LUHFWLRQDO :DYH &OLPDWH 6WXG\ 6RXWK :HVW
&RDVW RI 6UL /DQND 6UL /DQNDQ *HUPDQ
&RRSHUDWLRQ &&'B*7= &RDVW &RQVHUYDWLRQ
3URMHFW

 ZZZVSFQRDDJRYIDTWRUQDGREHDXIRUWKWPO
$XJXVW
















ENGINEER

42

ENGINEER - Vol. XXXXIV, No. 02, pp. [43-56], 2011


The Institution of Engineers, Sri Lanka

,UULJDWLRQ,QIUDVWUXFWXUH0DQDJHPHQW5HTXLUHPHQWV
WR(QVXUH:DWHU6HFXULW\IRU,PSRYHULVKHG5XUDO
3RSXODWLRQVXQGHU&OLPDWH&KDQJH6FHQDULR

176:LMHVHNHUD


$EVWUDFW &OLPDWHFKDQJHVWXGLHVKDYHFRPHWRPDWXULW\ZLWKWKHWKUHSRUWRIWKH,QWHUJRYHUQPHQWDO
SDQHO RQ &OLPDWH &KDQJH LQ  &RQFOXVLRQV DERXW WHPSHUDWXUH LQFUHDVHV UDLQIDOO YDULDWLRQV
FOLPDWH FKDQJH UHODWLRQVKLSV ZLWK HYDSRUDWLRQ HWF KDYH PRUH RU OHVV UHDFKHG FRQVHQVXV +RZHYHU
FOLPDWRORJLVWVKDYHWRILQHWXQHFOLPDWHPRGHOVWRUHILQHWKHSUHGLFWLRQV,WLVQRZQHFHVVDU\WRDVVHVV
WKHVXVWDLQDELOLW\RIWKHZDWHUDQGLWVVXUURXQGLQJHQYLURQPHQWZLWKWKHDQWLFLSDWHGFOLPDWHFKDQJHV
$VDWSUHVHQW LQ6UL/DQND WKHUHLV PLQLPXPUHVHDUFKDWWHPSWLQJWROLQNFOLPDWHFKDQJH LPSDFWVWR
LQIUDVWUXFWXUH GHYHORSPHQW DQG WKHUH LV QRQH LQ WKH DUHD RI LUULJDWLRQ 7KHUHIRUH LW LV QHFHVVDU\ IRU
FRXQWULHVOLNH6UL/DQNDZKHUHPDMRULW\RIWKHSRSXODWLRQGHSHQGVRQLUULJDWHGDJULFXOWXUHXWLOLVLQJD
ODUJH QXPEHU RI VPDOO UHVHUYRLUV WR DVFHUWDLQ WKH HIIHFW RQ LWV LUULJDWLRQ V\VWHPV DQG LGHQWLI\ WKH
DGDSWDWLRQPHDVXUHVWKDWVKRXOGEHLPSOHPHQWHG$VLJQLILFDQWLQFUHDVHRIZDWHUIRULUULJDWLRQVHFWRU
ZRXOGPHDQSUHVVXUHRQRWKHUVZKLFKFRPSHWHIRUZDWHU,IZDWHULVLQDGHTXDWHIRULUULJDWLRQWKHQLW
ZRXOGFHUWDLQO\OHDGWRVRFLRHFRQRPLFLVVXHVFRPPHQFLQJIURPWKHIDUPLQJFRPPXQLW\,QRUGHUWR
DGGUHVV WKHVH LVVXHV DQG WR LGHQWLI\ VXLWDEOH DGDSWDWLRQ RSWLRQV WKH SUHVHQW UHVHDUFK FDUULHG RXW
VSDWLDOO\ GLVWULEXWHG LUULJDWLRQ ZDWHU GHPDQG PRGHOOLQJ WR DVVHVV WKH DGPLQLVWUDWLYH GLVWULFW ZLVH
UHTXLUHPHQWV LQ WKH \HDU  5HVHUYRLU ZDWHU EDODQFH PRGHOOLQJ ZDV FDUULHG RXW IRU IRXU VHOHFWHG
GLVWULFWVWRVWXG\WKHDGHTXDF\RIPLQRULUULJDWLRQUHVHUYRLUV3UHVHQWZRUNGHVFULEHVWKHPRGHOOLQJ
HIIRUWV WKDW LQFRUSRUDWHG V\VWHP GHWHULRUDWLRQ GXH WR ODFN RI PDLQWHQDQFH VXSHULPSRVHG RQ WKH
FOLPDWHFKDQJHV7KHVWXG\XVHGLUULJDWLRQGHSDUWPHQWJXLGHOLQHVSXEOLVKHGGDWDDQGPDGHUDWLRQDO
DVVXPSWLRQVWRTXDQWLI\WKHLPSDFWVRQWKHLUULJDWLRQV\VWHPV,WZDVUHYHDOHGWKDWLWLVQHFHVVDU\IRU
ZDWHU DQG UHODWHG LQIUDVWUXFWXUH PDQDJHUV DQG HQJLQHHUV WR LQFRUSRUDWH VXLWDEOH PDLQWHQDQFH
SURJUDPV DQG PDNH VLJQLILFDQW HIIRUWV WR LPSURYH WKH SURMHFW HIILFLHQFLHV DV FOLPDWH FKDQJH
DGDSWDWLRQPHDVXUHV

.H\ZRUGV&OLPDWH&KDQJH,UULJDWLRQ:DWHU%DODQFH0RGHOOLQJ6SDWLDOO\'LVWULEXWHG



 ,QWURGXFWLRQ



SRVVLEOH WR ORVH VHQVLWLYH SODQW ILVK DQG RWKHU
OLYLQJ RUJDQLVPV WKDW GZHOO LQ WKH LUULJDWHG
DUHDHFRV\VWHPV

6UL /DQND ZKLFK LV FDWHJRULVHG DV DQ
DJULFXOWXUDOFRXQWU\KDV,UULJDWLRQDVWKHPDMRU
ZDWHUXVHVHFWRU2XWRIDQHVWLPDWHGVXUIDFH
ZDWHU DYDLODELOLW\ RI  0&0  LV IRU
LUULJDWLRQ XVDJH  ,'    ,Q WKH 'U\ ]RQH
ZKLFK FRQVLVWV RI ERWK WKH GU\ DQG WKH
LQWHUPHGLDWH UHJLRQV RI WKH FRXQWU\ FRYHUV
DSSUR[LPDWHO\  RI 6UL /DQND ,PEXODQD


5HSRUWV RI WKH ,QWHUJRYHUQPHQWDO 3DQHO RQ
&OLPDWH &KDQJH  ,3&& D E 
SURYLGHV WKH GHFLVLRQ PDNHUV ZLWK D PXFK
EURDGHU VHW RI HYLGHQFH RQ REVHUYHG LPSDFWV
FRPLQJ IURP D ODUJHU QXPEHU RI ILHOG VWXGLHV
ZKHQFRPSDUHGZLWKVLPLODUHIIRUWVLQWKHSDVW
WR LGHQI\ FOLPDWH FKDQJHV LPSDFWV DQG
DGDSWDWLRQ PHDVXUHV  +RZHYHU VWLOO WKHUH LV
PXFKXQFHUWDLQLW\DERXWWKHSRWHQWLDOFOLPDWLF
FKDQJHV DQG LPSDFWV DULVLQJ RXW RI VXFK
FKDQJHV  6RPH RI WKH DQWLFLSDWHG FKDOOHQJHV
IURP FOLPDWLF FKDQJH LQFOXGHV WKH FKDQJHV WR
SUHFLSLWDWLRQ DQG LWV SDWWHUQ FKDQJHV WR
LUULJDWLRQ GHPDQGV FKDQJHV WR VRLO PRLVWXUH
GXH WR WHPSHUDWXUH YDULDWLRQV FKDQJHV WR
TXDQWLWLHVHYDSRUDWHGIURPLUULJDWHGODQGVDQG
LUULJDWLRQ UHVHUYRLUV  ,W LV DOVR VDLG WKDW LW LV

(QJ 3URI  176 :LMHVHNHUD %6F (QJ  +RQV 6UL


/DQND  3*'LS 0RUDWXZD 0(QJ 7RN\R  '(QJ
7RN\R  &(QJ ),( 6UL /DQND  0,&( /RQGRQ 
3URIHVVRU RI &LYLO (QJLQHHULQJ 'HSDUWPHQW RI &LYLO
(QJLQHHULQJ8QLYHUVLW\RI0RUDWXZD

43

ENGINEER

:LMHVHNHUD DQG 1HXSDQH    ,UULJDWHG


DJLFXOWXUH LQ WKH 'U\ =RQH LV PDLQO\ ZLWK DQ
H[WHQVLYH QXPEHU RI VPDOO DQG PHGLXP
UHVHUYRLUV WKDW FDSWXUH PRVRRQDO UDLQV  7KH
VFKHPHVSURYLGLQJLUULJDWLRQIDFLOLWLHVIRURYHU
 KHWDUHV DUH FODVVLILHG DV  PDMRU LUULJDWLRQ
VFKHPHV ZKLOH WKH UHVW DUH FDOOHG PLQRU
LUULJDWLRQ VFKHPHV  7KHUH DUH DSSUR[LPDWHO\
 0DMRU ,UULJDWLRQ VFKHPHV XQGHU WKH
'HSDUWPHQW RI ,UULJDWLRQ VHUYLQJ DQ H[WHQW RI
DERXW  KHWDUHV ZKLOH WKHUH DUH QHDUO\
 PLQRU LUULJDWLRQ VFKHPHV XQGHU WKH
'HSDUWPHQW RI $JUDULDQ 6HUYLFHV VHUYLQJ
DERXW  KHWDUHV 6XUYH\   7KHVH
ODQGV WRJHWKHU ZLWK WKH 0DKDZHOL SURMHFW
ZKLFK ZDV FRPPHQFHG ZLWK WKH WDUJHW RI
SURYLGLQJLUULJDWLRQIDFLOLWLHVWRKHWDUH
RI QHZ ODQG DQG  KHWDUH RI H[LVWLQJ
DJULFXOWXUDO ODQGV LQGLFDWH WKH PDJQLWXGH RI
LUULJDWHGDJULFXOWXUHLQWKHFRXQWU\

6UL/DQNDVGU\]RQHFRQVLVWVRIDYDVWQXPEHU
RI PLQRU UHVHUYRLUV FDOOHG YLOODJH LUULJDWLRQ
WDQNV$FFRUGLQJWR)HUQDQGR  WKHUHKDG
EHHQ DERXW  PLQRU UHVHUYRLUV LQ WKH
LVODQGDQGPRUHZHUHEHLQJGLVFRYHUHG7KHVH
UHVHUYRLUV DUH WKH SLYRWDO SRLQW RI GU\ ]RQH
IDUPLQJ FRPPXQLWLHV 7KH\ VWRUH ZDWHU IRU
LUULJDWLRQ GRPHVWLF DQG RWKHU HQYLURQPHQWDO
QHHGV6XFFHVVLYHJRYHUQPHQWVKDYHDOORFDWHG
VLJQLILFDQW ILQDQFLDO UHVRXUFHV DQG HIIRUW WR
HQVXUH WKH GHYHORSPHQW DQG VXVWHQDQFH RI
WKHVH V\VWHPV EHFDXVH RI WKHLU LPSRUWDQFH WR
WKH GU\ ]RQH IDUPHUV DQG WKH DJULFXOWXUDO
VHFWRUHFRQRP\

$V VXFK DQ\ DGYHUVH HIIHFW RQ 6UL /DQNDV
LUULJDWHG DJULFXOWXUH DQG LWV LUULJDWLRQ
UHVHUYRLU V\VWHPV ZRXOG QRW RQO\ VHULRXVO\
DIIHFWWKHVWDWXVRIWKHIDUPLQJFRPPXQLW\EXW
DOVR RQ WKH IRRG VHFXULW\ RI WKH FRXQWU\
&OLPDWH FKDQJH DSSHDUV WR DIIHFW WKH UDLQIDOO
DQG WKH YHJHWDWLRQ LQ WKH WURSLFV  7KHUHIRUH
UXQRII LQWR WKH UHVHUYRLU V\VWHPV ZRXOG EH
DIIHFWHG  &OLPDWH FKDQJH KDV EHHQ SUHGLFWHG
WR DIIHFW WKH SDWWHUQ RI UDLQIDOO DQG KHQFH
ZRXOG FKDQJH WKH WLPLQJ RI WKH UHFHLSW RI
UHVHUYRLU LQIORZV 5HVHUYRLU VWRUDJH DQG
HVSHFLDOO\WKRVHKDYLQJKLJKZDWHUVSUHDGDUHD
ZRXOG EH DIIHFWHG E\ LQFUHDVH RI HYDSRUDWLRQ
DV D UHVXOW RI ULVLQJ WHPSHUDWXUH  0DJQLWXGH
DQG WKH WHPSRUDO GLVWULEXWLRQ RI ,UULJDWLRQ
GHPDQG ZRXOG EH DIIHFWHG GXH WR SRVVLEOH
FKDQJHV WR VRLO PRLVWXUH DV D UHVXOW RI
LQFUHDVHGHYDSRUDWLRQDQGGXHWRDQ\FKDQJHV

ENGINEER

WKDW ZRXOG WDNH SODFH LQ WKH YROXPH DQG


WLPLQJRIUDLQIDOO

$SDUWIURPWKHHIIHFWVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHWKHUH
LV DQ RQJRLQJ FRQFHUQ WKDW LUULJDWLRQ VFKHPH
PDLQWHQDQFH KDV EHHQ JLYHQ D VHFRQGDU\
LPSRUWDQFH E\ WKH VWDWH  7KH SUHVHQW V\VWHP
RI KDQGLQJ RYHU RI V\VWHP PDLQWHQDQFH WR
IDUPHU RUJDQLVDWLRQV LV UHODWLYHO\ QHZ DQG
WKHUH LV DOVR D FRQFHUQ WKDW WKH WUDQVIHU RI
PDLQWHQDQFH PD\ OHDG WR D IXUWKHU
GHWHULRUDWLRQ RI WKH LUULJDWLRQ LQIUDVWUXFWXUH
,Q FDVH LUULJDWLRQ V\VWHPV DUH GHWHULRUDWLQJ
DQGFRXQWU\LVIDFHGZLWKFOLPDWHFKDQJHVWKDW
KDYH EHHQ SUHGLFWHG WKHQ LW LV REYLRXV WKDW
LUULJDWLRQV\VWHPVZRXOGEHDGYHUVO\DIIHFWHG
0RVW RI WKH 'U\ ]RQH UHVHUYRLUV DUH RI
UHODWLYHO\ VPDOO FDSDFLW\ ZLWK KLJK
ZDWHUVSUHDG DHUDV DQG SUHVHQWO\ FXOWLYDWLQJ
PD[LPXPODQGDHUDWKDWFRXOGEHXQGHUWDNHQ
ZLWK WKH SUHYDLOLQJ VL]H RI UHVHUYRLU ,W LV
FUXFLDO WR LGHQWLI\ ZKHWKHU WKHVH UHVHUYRLUV
FRXOGDWOHDVWJXDUDQWHHWKHSUHVHQWFXOWLYDWLRQ
H[WHQW RQFH WKH FRXQWU\ LV H[SRVHG WR WKH
FOLPDWHFKDQJHV

7KH PRVW LPSRUWDQW TXHVWLRQ RI D ZDWHU
PDQDJHU WKDW UHTXLUHV DQ DQVZHU LV ZKDW LV
WKH PDJQLWXGH RI WKH HIIHFW GXH WR FOLPDWH
FKDQJH" 7R DQVZHU WKLV TXHVWLRQ IXOO\ LW LV
QHFHVVDU\ WR SHUIRUP VFKHPH OHYHO V\VWHP
DQDO\VLV ZKLFK LQFRUSRUDWH WKH FDOFXODWLRQ RI
ZDWHU \LHOGV DQG FRPSXWDWLRQ RI UHVHUYRLU
ZDWHU EDODQFH IRU ZDWHU GHPDQGV REWDLQHG
WKURXJKFURSZDWHUUHTXLUHPHQWPRGHOOLQJ,W
LV QHFHVVDU\ WR DVVHVV WKLV SUREOHP YHU\
FDUHIXOO\ EHFDXVH FOLPDWH PRGHOV KDYH \HW WR
SURYLGH HVWLPDWHV WKDW DUH DFFHSWDEOH DV
UHDVRQDEOHLQSXWVWRVPDOOZDWHUVKHGVWKDWDUH
RI WKH VL]H DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK 6UL /DQNDQ
LUULJDWLRQ UHVHUYRLUV 7KHUH DUH DOVR SUREOHPV
ZLWK RWKHU LQSXW GDWD UHTXLUHPHQWV VXFK DV
HOHYDWLRQFDSDFLW\GHWDLOVIRUPLQRUUHVHUYRLUV
UDLQIDOO RI WKH DUHD FURS W\SHV DQG DUHD RI
FRYHUDJH HYDSRUDWLRQ HVWLPDWHV HWF  ,Q WKLV
EDFNGURSDZDWHUPDQDJHUVEHVWRSWLRQLVQRW
WR ZDLW XQWLO WKH GDWD DQG SUHGLFWLRQV DUH RI
VXIILFLHQW UHVROXWLRQ EXW WR SHUIRUP
FRPSXWDWLRQV ZLWK DYDLODEOH LQIRUPDWLRQ WR
FRPSXWH WKH RUGHU RI PDJQLWXGH RI FOLPDWH
FKDQJHLPSDFWVVRWKDWWKHVHOHFWLRQRIVXLWDEOH
DGDSWDWLRQ DOWHUQDWLYHV FRXOG EH GRQH ZLWK
VFHQDULRDVVHVVPHQWV



44

7KHSUHVHQWZRUNFDUULHGRXWFRPSXWDWLRQVWR
LGHQWLI\ LUULJDWLRQ ZDWHU UHTXLUHPHQW XQGHU
YDULRXV FOLPDWH DQG LUULJDWLRQ V\VWHP
SHUIRUPDQFH VLWXDWLRQV ZKLOH FRQVLGHULQJ
DGPLQLVWUDWLYH GLVWULFWV DV WKH VSDWLDO XQLW  ,Q
RUGHUWRLGHQWLI\WKHHIIHFWVRI&OLPDWH&KDQJH
VFHQDULR RQ DYDLODEOH LUULJDWLRQ LQIUDVWUXFWXUH
PDLQO\ WKH ODUJH QXPEHU RI VPDOO LUULJDWLRQ
UHVHUYRLUV DQ DVVHVVPHQW RI WKH SRWHQWLDO
LUULJDEOH DUHD XQGHU WKHVH UHVHUYRLUV ZDV DOVR
PRGHOOHG XVLQJ LUULJDWLRQ V\VWHP DQDO\VLV
WHFKQLTXHV


DQG D ULVH LQ WHPSHUDWXUH E\ & FDXVHG D


GHFUHDVH LQ UXQRII E\  GHSHQGLQJ XSRQ
WKHDUHDVFRQVLGHUHGDQGWKHPRGHOXVHG7KH
*&0VLPXODWLRQVKDYHUHYHDOHGWKDWSURMHFWHG
LQFUHDVHVLQSRWHQWLDOHYDSRUDWLRQZHUHODUJHO\
GXHWRLQFUHDVHVLQWKHYDSRXUSUHVVXUHGHILFLW
UHVXOWLQJ IURP KLJKHU WHPSHUDWXUH 0DOO HW DO
 

$ VWXG\ RI VHDVRQDO DQG DQQXDO VXUIDFH DLU
WHPSHUDWXUHIRURQJWHUPWUHQGXVLQJGDWDLQ
,QGLD GXULQJ  IRU D ZHOOGLVWULEXWHG
QHWZRUN RI  VWDWLRQV KDV LQGLFDWHG D
VLJQLILFDQW ZDUPLQJ RI & \HDUV LQ WKH
PHDQDQQXDOWHPSHUDWXUHVIRUWKHFRXQWU\DVD
ZKROH  ,Q D VXEVHTXHQW VWXG\ LW KDG EHHQ
IRXQGWKDWDOO,QGLDPHDQDQQXDOWHPSHUDWXUH
KDV VKRZQ VLJQLILFDQW ZDUPLQJ WUHQG RI 
&  \HDU GXULQJ WKH SHULRG  WKH
UHFHQW SHULRG  KDV VHHQ D UHODWLYHO\
DFFHOHUDWHG ZDUPLQJ RI  &  \U ZKLFK
LV ODUJHO\ GXH WR XQSUHFHGHQWHG ZDUPLQJ
GXULQJWKHODVWGHFDGH7KHUHFHQWDFFHOHUDWHG
ZDUPLQJ RYHU ,QGLD LV PDQLIHVWHG HTXDOO\ LQ
GD\ WLPH DQG QLJKW WLPH WHPSHUDWXUHV 0DOO
%KDWODDQG3DQGH\  

7KH LPSDFW RI WHPSHUDWXUH RQ UXQRII KDV DOVR
EHHQ UHSRUWHG DV VXEVWDQWLDO GXH WR
HYDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQ &&&   FLWHV D VWXG\
FRQGXFWHG LQ &RODUDGR 5LYHU %DVLQ E\ 1DVK
DQG *OHLFN ZKHUH ZLWK QR FKDQJH LQ
SUHFLSLWDWLRQ D & LQFUHDVH LQ WHPSHUDWXUH
KDVVKRZQDUHGXFWLRQRIPHDQDQQXDOUXQRII
E\WRSHUFHQW7KHFKDQJHLQUXQRIIIRUD
&LQFUHDVHKDVEHHQLQGLFDWHGEHWZHHQDQG
SHUFHQWDQGWKDWIRUDWHPSHUDWXUHLQFUHDVH
E\ & SUHFLSLWDWLRQ ZRXOG QHHG WR EH
LQFUHDVHG E\ QHDUO\  SHUFHQW WR PDLQWDLQ
UXQRIIDWKLVWRULFDOOHYHOV

1DZD] $GHOR\H DQG 0RQWDVHUL  
LQYHVWLJDWHGWKHVHQVLWLYLW\RIWKHVWRUDJH\LHOG
UHODWLRQVKLSV RI WZR PXOWLSOH UHVHUYRLU
V\VWHPV ZLWK UHVSHFW WR FOLPDWH FKDQJH
WKURXJKWKHLQFRUSRUDWLRQ RIUHVHUYRLUVXUIDFH
QHW HYDSRUDWLRQ IOX[ DQG LGHQWLILHG WKDW IRU
WKHVH,UDQLDQFDWFKPHQWVZKHUHHYDSRUDWLRQLV
KLJKHU WKDQ WKH UDLQIDOO WKHUH LV D QHW
DGGLWLRQDO RXWIORZ ZKLFK OHDGV WR DQ LQFUHDVH
LQ VWRUDJH UHTXLUHPHQW IRU D JLYHQ \LHOG RU
ZRXOG H[SHULHQFH D UHGXFWLRQ RI WKH XVHDEOH
\LHOGIURPDUHVHUYRLURIDJLYHQFDSDFLW\7KH
VWXG\ DOVR HPSKDVL]HV WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI
KDYLQJ *&0 RXWSXWV LQ WKH IRUP RI PRQWKO\
SHUFHQWDJH FKDQJH LQ UDLQIDOO WHPSHUDWXUH

 %DFNJURXQG


 &OLPDWH&KDQJH3UHGLFWLRQV

7KHUH LV QRZ KLJKHU FRQILGHQFH LQ SURMHFWHG
SDWWHUQV RI ZDUPLQJ DQG RWKHU UHJLRQDOVFDOH
FOLPDWH FKDQJH IHDWXUHV LQFOXGLQJ FKDQJHV LQ
ZLQGSDWWHUQVSUHFLSLWDWLRQDQGVRPHDVSHFWV
RI H[WUHPHV ,3&& D  ,W LV SURMHFWHG WKDW
FURS \LHOGV FRXOG LQFUHDVH XS WR  LQ (DVW
DQG6RXWK(DVW$VLDZKLOHWKH\FRXOGGHFUHDVH
XS WR  LQ &HQWUDO DQG 6RXWK $VLD E\ WKH
PLGVW FHQWXU\ 7DNHQ WRJHWKHU DQG
FRQVLGHULQJ WKH LQIOXHQFH RI UDSLG SRSXODWLRQ
JURZWKDQGXUEDQLVDWLRQWKHULVNRIKXQJHULV
SURMHFWHG WR UHPDLQ YHU\ KLJK LQ VHYHUDO
GHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHV ,3&&E ,WLVDOVR
VWDWHG ZLWK YHU\ KLJK FRQILGHQFH WKDW ZDWHU
UHVRXUFH LQ PDQ\ VPDOO LVODQGV LV OLNHO\ WR EH
VHULRXVO\FRPSURPLVHG$VDUHVXOWRIFOLPDWH
FKDQJH WKH\ DUH OLNHO\ WR H[SHULHQFH ZDWHU
VWUHVVDQGSUHGLFWLRQVVKRZUHGXFHGUDLQIDOOLQ
VXPPHU7KHUHIRUHLWLVXQOLNHO\WKDWGHPDQG
ZLOO EH PHW GXULQJ ORZ UDLQIDOO SHULRGV
,QFUHDVHGUDLQIDOOLQZLQWHUZLOOEHXQOLNHO\WR
FRPSHQVDWHGXHWRDODFNRIVWRUDJHDQGKLJK
UXQRIIGXULQJVWRUPV 3DUU\HWDO 

$ VWXG\ LQ 6RXWK $IULFD KDV UHYHDOHG WKDW WKH
LQFUHDVH RI ZDWHU VXUIDFH HYDSRUDWLRQ
UHGXFWLRQ RI UXQRII GXH WR GURXJKW DQG
LQFUHDVHG GHSRVLWLRQ RI VLOW GXH WR FKDQJH RI
UDLQIDOODQGWHPSHUDWXUHLVPXFKPRUHLQFDVH
RI UHVHUYRLU V\VWHPV WKDQ IRU D UXQ RI ULYHU
VFKHPHV 0XNKHLELU    0DOO HW DO  
UHSRUWV WKDW WKH K\GURORJLF VHQVLWLYLW\ VWXGLHV
IRU WKH .RVL %DVLQ LQ ,QGLD WR DVVHVV WKH
SURMHFWHG ODQG XVH DQG SRWHQWLDO FOLPDWH
FKDQJH VFHQDULRV KDV UHYHDOHG WKDW UXQRII
LQFUHDVHZDVKLJKHUWKDQSUHFLSLWDWLRQLQFUHDVH
LQ DOO WKH SRWHQWLDO FOLPDWH FKDQJH VFHQDULRV
DSSO\LQJFRWHPSRUDU\WHPSHUDWXUH+RZHYHU
WKH VFHQDULR RI FRQWHPSRUDU\ SUHFLSLWDWLRQ

45

ENGINEER

UDGLDWLRQ KXPLGLW\ DQG ZLQG VSHHG IRU JULG


VTXDUHV VR WKDW WKH UDLQIDOO DQG SRWHQWLDO
HYDSRUDWLRQVFHQDULRLQDPRQWKO\EDVLVFRXOG
EHHDVLO\LQFRUSRUDWHGLQWKHFRPSXWDWLRQV

 &OLPDWHDQG:DWHU5HVRXUFHVRI6UL
/DQND

6UL /DQND ORFDWHG EHWZHHQ ODWLWXGHV  1 DQG
1DQGORQJLWXGHV(DQG(FRQVLVWV
RIDQDSSUR[LPDWHODQGH[WHQWRIVTXDUH
NLORPHWUHV  %HLQJ FORVH WR WKH HTXDWRU 6UL
/DQNDH[SHULHQFHVDFOLPDWHRIXQLIRUPO\KLJK
WHPSHUDWXUHV EXW GRHV QRW H[SHULHQFH
WHPSHUDWXUHH[WUHPHVDQGLWLVVWDWHGWKDWWKLV
LV DV D UHVXOW RI WKH VXUURXQGLQJ RFHDQ
$QQXDO SDQ HYDSRUDWLRQ YDOXHV LQGLFDWH WKDW
WKHUH LV D VLJQLILFDQW VSDWLDO YDULDWLRQ
FRQVLVWLQJRIYDOXHVEHWZHHQDQGPP
SHU \HDU  $YHUDJH DQQXDO UHIHUHQFH FURS
HYDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQ DW VHYHUDO VWDWLRQV LQ WKH
FRXQWU\LQGLFDWHVDYDULDWLRQEHWZHHQPP
GD\DQGPPGD\ ,' 

5DLQIDOO LQ 6UL /DQND LV PDLQO\ JRYHUQHG E\
WKH 1RUWK(DVW 'HFHPEHU  )HEUXDU\  DQG
WKH 6RXWK:HVW 0D\6HSWHPEHU  PRQVRRQV
5DLQ GXULQJ LQWHU PRQVRRQDO SHULRGV DUH
PDLQO\ GXH WR ORFDO FRQYHFWLRQV  %DVHG RQ
UDLQIDOO 6UL /DQND LV FRPPRQO\ GLYLGHG LQWR
WKUHH FOLPDWLF ]RQHV QDPHO\ WKH ZHW
LQWHUPHGLDWH DQG GU\ ]RQH 6XUYH\   DQG
WKH VSDWLDO YDULDELOLW\ YDULHV VLJQLILFDQWO\ RYHU
WLPHDQGDFRPSDULVRQRIYDULDWLRQVDYHUDJHG
RYHU IRXU  \HDU SHULRGV :LMHVHNHUD  
VKRZV DQ LQGLFDWLRQ RI H[SDQGLQJ GU\ DUHD
RYHUWLPH

7KRXJK ,UULJDWLRQ VHFWRU LV WKH PDMRU XVHU
VWDWXV RI 6UL /DQND DSSHDUV WR EH DW D PXFK
EHORZ FRQVXPSWLRQ OHYHO ZKHQ FRPSDUHG
ZLWK QHLJKERXULQJ ,QGLD ZKLFK XVHV DERXW
RIDYDLODEOHZDWHUIRUDJULFXOWXUH 0DOOHW
DO   $FFRUGLQJ WR ,PEXODQD :LMHVHNHUD
DQG 1HXSDQH   DQQXDO UXQRII LV
HVWLPDWHG WR EH DURXQG  RI WKH DQQXDO
UDLQIDOODQGWKHYDOXHVSUHVHQWHGLQGLFDWHWKDW
WKHUH DUH FRQVLGHUDEOH YDULDWLRQV LQ WKH
LQGLYLGXDO YDOXHV DFURVV ULYHUV  9HU\ ORZ
UXQRII UDWLRV KDYH EHHQ REVHUYHG LQ PRVW RI
WKH GU\ ]RQH ULYHUV JHQHUDOO\ OHVV WKDQ 
$FFRUGLQJ WR D VWXG\ E\ $PDUDVLQJKH
0XWXZDWWH DQG 6DNWKLYDGLYHO   WKH SHU
FDSLWDGRPHVWLFZLWKGUDZDODQGWKHLQGXVWULDO
ZLWKGUDZDO ERWK LQ  KDG DPRXQWHG WR
DERXW  ZKLFK LV PXFK OHVV WKDQ WKDW

ENGINEER

LQGLFDWHG E\ WKH 'HSDUWPHQW RI ,UULJDWLRQ ,'


 

 6UL/DQNDQ&OLPDWH&KDQJH)DFWRUV

0RGHOLQJ XQGHUWDNHQ E\ WKH 6UL /DQNDQ
&HQWUH IRU &OLPDWH &KDQJH 6WXGLHV VXJJHVW
WKDW WKH FKDQJHV LQ 6UL /DQND EURDGO\ IROORZ
WKH UHJLRQDO H[SHFWDWLRQV L  7KH UHJLRQDO
WHPSHUDWXUH WUHQGV DUH SOD\HG RXW LQ 6UL
/DQND %\  WKH WHPSHUDWXUH LQFUHDVH
GXULQJWKHVRXWKZHVWPRQVRRQVHDVRQ 0D\WR
6HSWHPEHU  LV DQWLFLSDWHG WR EH  & ZKLOVW
WKH QRUWKHDVW PRQVRRQ VHDVRQ 'HFHPEHU WR
)HEUXDU\  LV H[SHFWHG WR \LHOG D WHPSHUDWXUH
LQFUHDVH RI  & LL  5DLQIDOO LV VOLJKWO\
GLIIHUHQW WR WKH UHJLRQDO WUHQG ZLWK 6UL
/DQNDV UDLQIDOO OHYHOV DQWLFLSDWHG WR LQFUHDVH
LQERWKVXPPHUDQGZLQWHUVHDVRQV+RZHYHU
WKH UDLQIDOO FKDQJH LV H[SHFWHG WR EH JUHDWHU
GXULQJ WKH VRXWKZHVW PRQVRRQV WKDQ
QRUWKHDVW PRQVRRQV LLL  ,Q ERWK VHDVRQV
UDLQIDOO DQG WHPSHUDWXUH LV SURMHFWHG WR
LQFUHDVH ZLWK WLPH IURP   WR 
DQG LY  5DLQIDOO FKDQJHV DUH DOVR XQHYHQ
DFURVV 6UL /DQND  PXFK JUHDWHU LQFUHDVHV DUH
H[SHFWHG RQ WKH ZLQGZDUG VLGH RI WKH FHQWUDO
KLOOV 3$ 

$QDQDO\VLVRIWUHQGVLQFOLPDWLFVWDWLRQVRI
6UL /DQND XVLQJ  \HDU GDWD VHULHV KDV
LQGLFDWHG VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW WHPSRUDO
FKDQJHV LQ 6RXWKZHVW  0RQVRRQ  UHODWHG
SUHFLSLWDWLRQDWILYHRIWKHVWDWLRQVZLWKWKUHH
VWDWLRQVVKRZLQJHQKDQFHGUDLQIDOODPRXQWLQJ
WR D WRWDO RI  PPPRQWK RYHU WKH HQWLUH
WLPHLQWHUYDODQGDWWZRVWDWLRQVDGHFUHDVHLQ
UDLQIDOO ZLWK WLPH DPRXQWLQJ WR D WRWDO RI 
PPPRQWK ,Q DGGLWLRQ RQH VWDWLRQ
H[SHULHQFHG D GHFUHDVH RI ERWK )LUVW DQG
6HFRQG ,QWHUPRQVRRQ UDLQIDOO RYHU WLPH ZLWK
D WRWDO RI  PPPRQWK  6WDWLRQV VKRZLQJ
ORVVRIUDLQIDOODUHFRQILQHGWRKLJKHUHOHYDWLRQ
DUHDV DQG WKRVH H[KLELWLQJ HQKDQFHG UDLQIDOO
DUH ORFDWHG LQ WKH ORZODQGV FRQILQHG WR WKH
VRXWKZHVWHUQVHFWRURI6UL/DQND1RQHRIWKH
VWDWLRQV KDG LQGLFDWHG DQ\ VLJQLILFDQW FKDQJH
LQ 1RUWKHDVW 0RQVRRQ SUHFLSLWDWLRQ WKURXJK
WLPH 0DOPJUHQHWDO 

$QDO\VLVRIORQJWHUPWHPSHUDWXUHGDWDRIWKH
LVODQGKDVLQGLFDWHGDQLQFUHDVLQJWUHQGRIDLU
WHPSHUDWXUH SDUWLFXODUO\ GXULQJ WKH UHFHQW
IHZGHFDGHV0HDQDQQXDODLUWHPSHUDWXUHVRI
6UL/DQNDVLQFHLQWHUPVRIWKHYDULDWLRQ
IURP WKH ORQJWHUP PHDQ KDV VKRZQ D

46

ZDUPLQJWUHQGGXULQJWKHUHFHQWIHZGHFDGHV
-D\DWLOODNHHWDO -D\DWKLOOHNDHODO  
TXRWLQJ )HUQDQGR DQG &KDQGUDSDOD  
DQG &KDQGUDSDOD   UHSRUWV WKDW DQ
DQDO\VLV RI WHPSHUDWXUH UHFRUGV RI RYHU 
\HDUV DW DOO WKH PHWHRURORJLFDO REVHUYDWLRQ
VWDWLRQVKDVLQGLFDWHGDQLQFUHDVHLQWKHPHDQ
DLU WHPSHUDWXUH RI 6UL /DQND LQ WKH RUGHU RI
 2& SHU $QQXP GXULQJ WKH SHULRG IURP
WR

5DLQIDOOUHFRUGVRI6UL/DQNDKDVVKRZQDKLJK
\HDUWR\HDUYDULDELOLW\0HDQ$QQXDO5DLQIDOO
IOXFWXDWLRQVIURPWLOOLQWHUPVRIWKH
GHSDUWXUHIURPWKHORQJWHUPPHDQKDVVKRZQ
WKDW WKH SHULRG IURP  WLOO  KDV
DOWHUQDWLQJ GU\ DQG ZHW SHULRGV EXW D
VLJQLILFDQW FKDQJH WR WKLV EHKDYLRXU LV YLVLEOH
LQWKH\HDUSHULRGIURPWRZKHUH
WKHDYHUDJHDQQXDOUDLQIDOOKDVUHDFKHGEHORZ
DYHUDJH IRU WKH HQWLUH SHULRG H[FHSW IRU WKUHH
\HDUV -D\DWLOODNHHWDO 

&RPSDULVRQ RI WKH VHDVRQDO DQG DQQXDO
UDLQIDOO YDOXHV DORQJ ZLWK FRHIILFLHQW RI
YDULDWLRQV IRU WZR UHFHQW  \HDU UHIHUHQFH
SHULRGV RI  DQG  KDV VKRZQ DQ
RYHUDOO GHFUHDVH RI  LQ WKH DYHUDJH DQQXDO
UDLQIDOO ZLWK WKH FKDQJH FRQFHQWUDWHG WR WKH
SHULRG IURP 'HFHPEHU WR $SULO 7KH PDMRU
UHGXFWLRQ KDV EHHQ GXULQJ WKH 1RUWK (DVW
PRQVRRQ ZKLOH WKHUH KDG EHHQ QR VLJQLILFDQW
FKDQJH LQ WKH VHFRQG LQWHU PRQVRRQ 7KLV
GHFUHDVHKDVFDXVHGDVKLIWLQWKHGHPDUFDWLRQ
RI FXUUHQW :HW =RQH 'U\ =RQH DQG WKH
,QWHUPHGLDWH=RQH -D\DWLOODNHHWDO 

 &OLPDWH3UHGLFWLRQVIRU6UL/DQND

)XWXUH WHPSHUDWXUH DQG UDLQIDOO RI 6UL /DQND
DV FRPSXWHG E\ WKUHH $2*&0V IRUFHG ZLWK
$ 65(6 HPLVVLRQ VFHQDULR WRJHWKHU ZLWK
REVHUYHG YDOXHV IRU WKH SHULRG  DV
JLYHQLQ-D\DWKLODNDHWDO  VKRZWKDWWKH
SDWWHUQ RI GLVWULEXWLRQ KDV D KLJK VLPLODULW\
ZLWK WKH +DG&0 LQGLFDWLQJ WKH KLJKHVW
YDOXHV ZKLOH WKH &*06 KDG WKH ORZHVW  7KH
WKUHHJHQHUDOFLUFXODWLRQPRGHOVWKDWKDGEHHQ
XVHG ZHUH &*&0 &DQDGLDQ *HQHUDO
&LUFXODWLRQ 0RGHO  +DG&0 +DGOH\ &HQWUH
*HQHUDO &LUFXODWLRQ 0RGHO  9HUVLRQ   DQG
&6,52 &RPPRQZHDOWK 6FLHQWLILF DQG
,QGXVWULDO 5HVHDUFK 2UJDQL]DWLRQ *HQHUDO
&LUFXODWLRQ 0RGHO  6SDWLDO GLVWULEXWLRQV
SUHVHQWHG E\ -D\DWKLODND HW DO   FOHDUO\
LQGLFDWHV WKDW WKH SUHGLFWLRQV LQ WKH \HDU 

SUHVHQWV D VLJQLILFDQW H[SDQVLRQ RI WKH GU\


DUHDV RI WKH FRXQWU\ WKHUHE\ VXJJHVWLQJ D
VLJQLILFDQW SUHVVXUH RQ WKH ZDWHU UHVRXUFHV
DQG WKH QHHG WR HIIHFW VXLWDEOH DGDSWDWLRQ
PHDVXUHVWKURXJKV\VWHPDWLFVWXGLHV


 $SSURDFKDQG0HWKRGRORJ\


 ,UULJDWLRQ'HPDQG0RGHOOLQJ

/LWHUDWXUH SRLQWV WR D JHQHUDO GHFOLQH RI 6UL
/DQNDV UDLQIDOO DQG DQ LQFUHDVH LQ
WHPSHUDWXUH  ,QFUHDVH LQ WHPSHUDWXUH UHVXOWV
LQ DQ LQFUHDVH LQ HYDSRUDWLRQ DQG
HYDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQ  $ VHOHFWHG FURS KDYLQJ D
VSHFLILFFURSZDWHUUHTXLUHPHQWGHSHQGLQJRQ
LWV FURS GHYHORSPHQW VWDJH ZRXOG UHTXLUH DQ
DPRXQW RI ZDWHU DV LUULJDWLRQ GHPDQG JLYHQ
WKHODQGSUHSDUDWLRQUHTXLUHPHQWVIDUPORVVHV
DQG SURMHFW HIILFLHQFLHV  $Q LUULJDWLRQ ZDWHU
GHPDQGPRGHOZLWKDPRQWKO\FRPSXWDWLRQDO
WLPH VWHS ZDV GHYHORSHG DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH
,'    0RGHO FRPSXWDWLRQV ZHUH FDUULHG
RXW FRQVLGHULQJ WKH DGPLQLVWUDWLYH GLVWULFWV DV
WKH VSDWLDO XQLW IRU DJJUHJDWLRQ  *RYHUQLQJ
HTXDWLRQV XVHG IRU WKH FRPSXWDWLRQV DUH DV
IROORZV

):5 W  /3 W (WF W )/ W  


 ),5 W  ):5 W (5 W  

,' W  ),5 WK  


Q

,'VHDVRQDO  ,' W  

W
,Q WKHVH HTXDWLRQV W LV WKH FRQVLGHUHG WLPH
VWHS IRU FRPSXWDWLRQV DQG Q LV WKH QXPEHU RI
WLPH VWHSV SHU SHULRG  /3 LV WKH ZDWHU
UHTXLUHPHQW IRU ODQG SUHSDUDWLRQ (7F LV WKH
ZDWHU
UHTXLUHPHQW
IRU
FURS
HYDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQ DQG )/ LV WKH ZDWHU
UHTXLUHGWRFRPSHQVDWHIRUIDUPORVVHV):5
LV WKH ILHOG ZDWHU UHTXLUHPHQW (5 LV WKH
HIIHFWLYH UDLQIDOO ),5 LV WKH ILHOG LUULJDWLRQ
UHTXLUHPHQW ,' LV WKH LUULJDWLRQ GHPDQG DQG
KLVWKHSURMHFWHIILFLHQF\

(YDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQDQGUDLQIDOOZHUHWDNHQDV
VSDWLDOO\ GLVWULEXWHG LQSXWV IRU PRGHO
FRPSXWDWLRQV&URSW\SHVVHOHFWHGE\IDUPHUV
IRU HDFK VHDVRQ ODQG SUHSDUDWLRQ ZDWHU
UHTXLUHPHQWV IDUP ORVHV DQG WKH SURMHFW
HIILFLHQF\ZHUHDVVXPHGDVXQLIRUPLQSXWVIRU
DOO VSDWLDO XQLWV VLQFH QR VSDWLDOO\ GLVWULEXWHG
GDWD RQ FURS W\SHV SODQWLQJ GDWHV HWF ZHUH

47

ENGINEER

DYDLODEOH  $OVR LW ZDV IHOW WKDW E\ NHHSLQJ


FRQVWDQWYDOXHVIRUWKHVHZRXOGHQDEOHDQHDV\
DQDO\VLV RI ZDWHU UHTXLUHPHQW YDOXHV WKURXJK
WKHPRGHO

,UULJDWHG DUHD LQ HDFK VSDWLDO H[WHQW KDG WZR
W\SHV RI FXOWLYDWLRQV DV SDGG\ RU RWKHU ILHOG
FURSV 2)&V   ,UUHVSHFWLYH RI WKH FURS W\SH
SHULRG RI LUULJDWLRQ IRU HDFK ODQG XQLW ZDV
DVVXPHG DV  GD\V IRU WKH <DOD VHDVRQ 6:
PRQVRRQ  DQG  GD\V IRU WKH 0DKD VHDVRQ
1(PRQVRRQ ,QWKH2)&FXOWLYDWLRQDUHDLW
ZDV DVVXPHG WKDW WKH VDPH FURS ZDV
FXOWLYDWHGDQGWKLVFURSZDVWDNHQDV&KLOOLHV
7KH YDOXHV RI FURS JURZWK VWDJHV DQG FURS
IDFWRUV JLYHQ LQ WKH ,UULJDWLRQ 'HSDUWPHQW
JXLGHOLQHV ZHUH XVHG IRU WKH FRPSXWDWLRQ RI
WHPSRUDOO\ GLVWULEXWHG HYDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQ
UHTXLUHPHQWVIRUHDFKXQLWDUHD

/DQG SUHSDUDWLRQ IRU DOO VSDWLDO XQLWV DQG IRU
WKH 0DKD DQG <DOD VHDVRQV ZDV WDNHQ WR
FRPPHQFHLQWKHPRQWKVRI2FWREHUDQG0D\
UHVSHFWLYHO\  ,Q RUGHU WR RSWLPLVH WKH ZDWHU
UHVRXUFHV LQIUDVWUXFWXUH WKH FRPPRQO\
LQFRUSRUDWHG WKUHH VWDJJHU V\VWHP ZDV
DVVXPHG DV WKH FXOWLYDWLRQ SDWWHUQ LQ HDFK
LUULJDWHGDUHD

,Q WKLV VWXG\ WKH PRQWKO\  SUREDEOH
UDLQIDOOGDWDJLYHQLQWKH,'  ZHUHWDNHQ
DV WKH EDVH GDWD IRU WKH UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ RI
SUHYDLOLQJ VLWXDWLRQ  <HDU  ZDV WDNHQ DV
WKH FRPSDULVRQ WLPH OLQH EHFDXVH RI WKH
DYDLODELOLW\ RI *&0 SUHGLFWLRQV  5DWH RI
FKDQJH RI DQQXDO UDLQIDOO FRPSXWHG XVLQJ WKH
REVHUYHG DYHUDJHV RI  SHULRG DQG
&6,52 SUHGLFWLRQV LQ -D\DWKLOOHND HW DO  
ZDV DVVXPHG HTXDO WR UDWH RI FKDQJH RI
UDLQIDOOYDOXHVLQ,'  7KLVDVVXPHVWKDW
WKH  SUREDEOH UDLQIDOO UHSRUWHG LQ 
FRXOGEHWDNHQDVWKDWIRU WKHSHULRGEHWZHHQ
5DWHRIFKDQJHRIPRGHOOHGYDOXHV
IRU WKH \HDU  ZKHQ FRPSDUHG ZLWK WKH
DYHUDJHGYDOXHVLQGLFDWHGDGHFOLQHLQ
UDLQIDOOH[FHSWLQVHYHQGLVWULFWV

7ZR IXWXUH VFHQDULRV SHUWDLQLQJ WR PRQWKO\
UDLQIDOO GLVWULEXWLRQ ZDV FRQVLGHUHG IRU
LUULJDWLRQ GHPDQG PRGHOOLQJ  2QH ZDV WKDW
WKH UDWH RI FKDQJH RI DQQXDO UDLQIDOO ZDV
XQLIRUP RYHU HDFK PRQWK RI WKH \HDU  7KH
RWKHU ZDV WKDW WKH DVVXPHG UDWH RI FKDQJH
UHVXOWHG GXH WR DQ LQFUHDVH RI SHDN PRQWKO\
UDLQIDOO E\  ZKLOH WKH UHVW RI WKH PRQWKV
KDGDQDSSRUWLRQHGUDWHRIFKDQJHUHVXOWLQJLQ

ENGINEER

WKH VDPH DYHUDJH REVHUYHG LQ WKH DQQXDO


YDOXH 9DOXH RI  ZDV WDNHQ DV D
FRPSDUDWLYH ILJXUH DIWHU FDUU\LQJ RXW D IHZ
WULDODQGHUURUFRPSXWDWLRQV7KHVHFRQGFDVH
ZDV GHYHORSHG DV DQ DWWHPSW WR FRQVLGHU WKH
FOLPDWH FKDQJH SUHGLFWLRQV ZKLFK LQGLFDWHG
KLJKHU UDLQ GXULQJ UDLQ\ SHULRGV DQG GULHU
GU\ PRQWKV  $JUR HFRORJLFDO UHJLRQ UDLQIDOO
YDOXHV ,'   ZHUH DJJUHJDWHG WR WKH
DGPLQLVWUDWLYH GLVWULFW ERXQGDULHV E\
FDOFXODWLQJWKHDUHDZHLJKWHGDYHUDJHIRUHDFK
GLVWULFW,UULJDWLRQ'HSDUWPHQW,'  YDOXHV
RI 3DQ HYDSRUDWLRQ ZHUH VSDWLDOO\ GLVWULEXWHG
XVLQJ 7KLHVVHQ 9RURQRL  SRO\JRQV DQG WKHQ
FRPSXWLQJ DUHD ZHLJKWHG DYHUDJH IRU HDFK
GLVWULFW ,UULJDWLRQ GHSDUWPHQW UHFRPPHQGHG
SDQ FRHIILFLHQW RI  ZDV XVHG IRU ZDWHU
GHPDQGPRGHOOLQJ

/LWHUDWXUHVXUYH\LGHQWLILHGWKDWDIIHFWLQJD
FKDQJHLQWHPSHUDWXUHZKLOHNHHSLQJDOORWKHU
SDUDPHWHUV FRQVWDQW ZRXOG JLYH ULVH WR D
FKDQJH LQ UXQRII E\  DQG WKLV ZDV
DVVXPHG DV D UHVXOW RI WKH FKDQJH LQ
HYDSRUDWLRQ  $FFRUGLQJO\ WKH SUHVHQW ZRUN
DVVXPHG WKDW D  GHJUHH LQFUHDVH RI
WHPSHUDWXUHZRXOGDIIHFWDQLQFUHDVHRILQ
HYDSRUDWLRQ 7KLV UDWH ZDV XVHG ZLWK WKH
REVHUYHG WUHQG RI WHPSHUDWXUH ULVH WKDW KDG
EHHQ UHSRUWHG IRU 6UL /DQND E\ -D\DWKLOOHND HW
DO   6SDWLDO YDOXHV RI HYDSRUDWLRQ
FRPSXWHG XVLQJ YDOXHV IURP ,'   ZHUH
XQLIRUPO\ LQFUHDVHG WR FDWHU WR WKH HQWLUH
LQFUHDVH GXULQJ WKH  \HDU SHULRG UHDFKLQJ
\HDU  ,UULJDWLRQ ZDWHU UHTXLUHPHQW
FRPSXWDWLRQV ZHUH EDVHG RQ WKH 3DGG\ DQG
2)& FXOWLYDWLRQ DUHD DQG RWKHU DSSURSULDWH
GHWDLOV SHU GLVWULFW DV UHSRUWHG LQ WKH
$PDUDVLQJKH 0XWKXZDWWH DQG 6DNWKLYDGLYHO
 

 6FHQDULR,GHQWLILFDWLRQ

,UULJDWLRQ
ZDWHU
GHPDQG
PRGHOOLQJ
FRQVLGHUHG WKH IROORZLQJ ILYH VFHQDULRV WR
FRPSDUH WKH ZDWHU UHVRXUFHV PDQDJHPHQW
UHTXLUHPHQWVLQFDVHRIFOLPDWHFKDQJH$VWKH
EDVH FDVH WKH PRGHO XVHG D SURMHFW HIILFLHQF\
YDOXHRIIRUDOOGLVWULFWV

%DVH6FHQDULR

&RPSXWDWLRQ RI WKH LUULJDWLRQ ZDWHU
UHTXLUHPHQW IRU WKH EDVH \HDU ZKLFK LV
FRQVLGHUHG DV  KDYLQJ SDUDPHWHUV
DQG LQSXWV DV JLYHQ LQ WKH LUULJDWLRQ
GHSDUWPHQW JXLGHOLQHV RU LQ WKH UHSRUWHG

48

OLWHUDWXUH DQG KDYLQJ DQ RYHUDOO LUULJDWLRQ


SURMHFW HIILFLHQF\ RI  WKURXJKRXW WKH
FRXQWU\

'LVWULFW ZLVH ZDWHU GHPDQG IRU LUULJDWLRQ LQ


HDFK VHDVRQ ZDV FRPSXWHG UHODWLYH WR WKH
EDVHOLQH \HDU  ,Q HDFK 'LVWULFW FKDQJH LQ WKH
ZDWHU GHPDQG ZDV FRPSDUHG ZLWK WKH
FRUUHVSRQGLQJ FKDQJH LQ UDLQIDOO IRU ERWK
0DKDDQG<DODVHDVRQV


 ,UULJDWLRQ,QIUDVWUXFWXUHIRU0RGHOOLQJ

,Q FDVH RI ZDWHU UHVRXUFH XWLOLVDWLRQ
SUHGLFWLRQVGXHWRFOLPDWH FKDQJHZRXOG JLYH
ULVH WR DGGLWLRQDO EXUGHQV RQ WKH DYDLODEOH
LQIUDVWUXFWXUH  &DSDFLWLHV RI WKH SUHYDLOLQJ
FDQDO V\VWHPV DQG UHVHUYRLUV SHUWDLQLQJ WR
LUULJDWLRQ V\VWHPV ZRXOG UHTXLUH WR EH
DVVHVVHG  7KLV LV QHFHVVDU\ WR FKHFN WKH
FDSDFLW\ RI WKH UHVHUYRLUV WR VWRUH WKH V\VWHP
LQIORZV HYHQ ZLWK D FKDQJHG TXDQWLW\ DQG D
YDULDWLRQLQWKHWLPLQJZKLOHWKHUHLVDFKDQJH
LQ V\VWHP RXWIORZ ZLWK D FKDQJH LQ WKH YDOXH
RI HYDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQ DQG FKDQJHG HIIHFWLYH
UDLQIDOO YDOXH  ,Q RWKHU ZRUGV WR SHUIRUP D
FKHFN RI WKH V\VWHP ZDWHU EDODQFH
LQFRUSRUDWLQJ FKDQJHV WR LQSXWV DQG RXWSXWV
GXH WR FOLPDWH FKDQJH ZKLOH NHHSLQJ WKH
PD[LPXP VWRUDJH RI WKH V\VWHP XQFKDQJHG
,Q FDVH RI ZDWHU VXSSO\ V\VWHPV WRR LW LV
HVVHQWLDO WR DVVHVV ZDWHU LQWDNH FDSDFLWLHV
VWRUDJH VL]HV DQG WUDQVPLVVLRQ OLQH V\VWHP
DGHTXDFLHV


6FHQDULR  6&B 7HPSHUDWXUH 5LVH DQG
8QLIRUP9DULDWLRQRI5DLQ 

&RPSXWDWLRQ RI WKH LUULJDWLRQ ZDWHU
UHTXLUHPHQW LQ WKH \HDU  ZLWK WKH
SUHGLFWHG DQQXDO UDLQIDOO FKDQJH NHHSLQJ
LQOLQHZLWKWKH&6,52PRGHO7KHFKDQJH
WRWKHDQQXDOUDLQIDOOYDOXHRIDSDUWLFXODU
VSDWLDO HQWLW\ LV HIIHFWHG XQLIRUPO\ RYHU
HDFK PRQWK RI WKH \HDU  &KDQJH RI
HYDSRUDWLRQ LV EDVHG RQ WKH WHPSHUDWXUH
ULVH WKDW KDG EHHQ REVHUYHG LQ WKH SDVW
GDWD3URMHFWHIILFLHQF\LV

6FHQDULR  6&B 7HPSHUDWXUH 5LVH DQG
5DLQIDOOKDVD+LJKHU3HDN 

&RPSXWDWLRQ RI WKH LUULJDWLRQ ZDWHU
UHTXLUHPHQWXQGHUWKHVDPHFRQGLWLRQVDV
LQ WKH 6FHQDULR  EXW ZLWKRXW HIIHFWLQJ D
XQLIRUP
LQWHU
DQQXDO
YDULDWLRQ
DSSRUWLRQHG WKH UDLQIDOO WR KDYH D KLJKHU
SHUFHQWDJHRIUDLQLQWKHSHDNUDLQPRQWK
DQGOHVVUDLQLQWKHRWKHUPRQWKV

6FHQDULR  6&B 7HPSHUDWXUH 5LVH 8QLIRUP
9DULDWLRQRI5DLQ,QFUHDVHRI*URZQ$UHD 

&RPSXWDWLRQ RI WKH LUULJDWLRQ ZDWHU
UHTXLUHPHQWXQGHUWKHVDPHFRQGLWLRQVDV
LQ 6FHQDULR  EXW IRU WKH LUULJDWLRQ ODQG
DUHDWRLQFUHDVHLQRUGHUWRUHIOHFWRQJRLQJ
IRRG FXOWLYDWLRQ GULYHV  7KLV VFHQDULR
DVVXPHV D  LQFUHDVH RI WKH SDGG\ DUHD
DQGDLQFUHDVHLQWKH2)&H[WHQWV

6FHQDULR  6&B 7HPSHUDWXUH 5LVH 8QLIRUP
9DULDWLRQ RI 5DLQ ,QFUHDVH RI *URZQ $UHD
5HGXFHG3URMHFW(IILFLHQF\ 

&RPSXWDWLRQ RI WKH LUULJDWLRQ ZDWHU
UHTXLUHPHQWXQGHUWKHVDPHFRQGLWLRQVDV
LQ 6FHQDULR  LQFRUSRUDWLQJ DQ RYHUDOO
SURMHFW HIILFLHQF\ GHWHULRUDWLRQ IURP 
WR

6FHQDULR  6&B 7HPSHUDWXUH 5LVH 8QLIRUP
9DULDWLRQ RI 5DLQ ,QFUHDVH RI *URZQ $UHD
,QFUHDVHG3URMHFW(IILFLHQF\ 

&RPSXWDWLRQ RI WKH LUULJDWLRQ ZDWHU
UHTXLUHPHQWXQGHUWKHVDPHFRQGLWLRQVDV
LQ 6FHQDULR  LQFRUSRUDWLQJ DQ RYHUDOO
SURMHFW HIILFLHQF\ LPSURYHPHQW IURP 
WR


)LJXUH6SDWLDO'LVWULEXWLRQRIWKH
6HOHFWHG'LVWULFWVDQGWKH$QWLFLSDWHG
5DLQIDOO&KDQJHLQZKHQFRPSDUHG
WRWKH%DVH<HDU

,Q WKLV VWXG\ D PLQRU UHVHUYRLU RI D W\SLFDO
WHUUDLQLQWKH'U\=RQHZDVFRQVLGHUHGDWIRXU

49

ENGINEER

WKLV VWXG\ ZDV WR LGHQWLI\ SRVVLEOH LUULJDWLRQ


H[WHQWV WKH VFHQDULRV 6& 6& DQG 6& ZHUH
QRWDSSOLFDEOH,QVWHDG RQO\WKHVHQVLWLYLW\RI
LUULJDEOH DUHD XQGHU YDULRXV SURMHFW HIILFLHQF\
YDOXHVZDVVWXGLHG

6LQFH SDGG\ LV WKH PDMRU FURS JURZQ LQ WKH
GU\ ]RQH RI 6UL /DQND PRGHO FRPSXWDWLRQV
ZHUH FRQILQHG WR WKH DVVXPSWLRQ WKDW XQGHU
WKH LUULJDWLRQ UHVHUYRLU RQO\ SDGG\ LV JURZQ
GXULQJ0DKDDQG<DODVHDVRQV

 5DWHRIFKDQJHRI5DLQIDOO

5HVXOWV UHSRUWHG E\ -D\DWKLOOLND HW DO  
LQGLFDWHGWKHIXWXUHDQQXDOUDLQIDOOSHUWDLQLQJ
WRDGPLQLVWUDWLYHGLVWULFWV,QFUHDVHVLQGLFDWHG
YDOXHV EHWZHHQ  ZKLOH WKH GHFUHDVHV
VKRZHGYDOXHVIURP5DWHRIFKDQJH
RI UDLQIDOO FRPSXWHG XVLQJ WKH REVHUYHG DQG
*&0 SUHGLFWHG YDOXHV ZHUH WKHQ DSSOLHG WR
WKH  SUREDEOH UDLQIDOO YDOXHV WR FDOFXODWH
PRGHOLQSXWV

 0RQWKO\5DLQIDOO'LVWULEXWLRQ

,UULJDWLRQ 'HPDQG DQG 5HVHUYRLU ZDWHU
EDODQFH PRGHOOLQJ LQFRUSRUDWHG WKUHH UDLQIDOO
GLVWULEXWLRQV DW HDFK GLVWULFW IRU VFHQDULR
FRPSDULVRQV  7KH EDVH OLQH   XQLIRUP
GLVWULEXWLRQ RI DQQXDO LQFUHDVH RU GHFUHDVH
6&  DQG D GLVWULEXWLRQ ZLWK DQ LQFUHDVHG
SHDN 6&  IRU $PSDUD 'LVWULFW LV VKRZQ LQ
)LJXUHWRLOOXVWUDWHDW\SLFDOPRGHOLQSXWV


VHOHFWHGGLVWULFWVDQGZDVVXEMHFWHGWRYDULRXV
FOLPDWLFVFHQDULRVFRUUHVSRQGLQJWRHDFKRIWKH
GLVWULFWV &RQVLGHUDWLRQ RI D W\SLFDO UHVHUYRLU
IRU WKH SUHVHQW ZRUN LV IHOW DGHTXDWH IRU D
FRPSDUDWLYHDVVHVVPHQWRIWKHFOLPDWHFKDQJH
LPSDFWRQDSHUUHVHUYRLUEDVLVIRUWKHVHOHFWHG
GLVWULFWV  7KRXJK LW ZDV PRUH UHDOLVWLF WR
LQFRUSRUDWH DFWXDO UHVHUYRLU GDWD IURP HDFK
GLVWULFW GXH WR ODFN RI GDWD WKH SUHVHQW VWXG\
DVVXPHGWKDWWKHWKUHHGLVWULFWVKDYHDVLPLODU
WHUUDLQ DQG WKHQ XVHG D UHVHUYRLU EHG VXUYH\
GDWDVHW RI D UHVHUYRLU LQ WKH $QXUDGKDSXUD
GLVWULFW DV WKH W\SLFDO GDWDVHW  'XULQJ ZDWHU
EDODQFH PRGHOOLQJ PLQRU DGMXVWPHQWV ZHUH
LQFRUSRUDWHG WR WKH UHVHUYRLU GLPHQVLRQV DQG
LUULJDEOH DUHDV RI WKH EDVH FDVH VFHQDULR WR
HQVXUH UHDOLVWLF RXWSXWV $QXUDGKDSXUD
$PSDUD 3ROORQQDUXZD DQG .XUXQHJDOD
ZKLFK VLJQLILFDQWO\ FRQWULEXWH WR WKH SDGG\
FXOWLYDWLRQ RI 6UL /DQND ZHUH WKH VHOHFWHG
GLVWULFWV )LJXUH  VKRZV WKH VSDWLDO
GLVWULEXWLRQ RI VHOHFWHG GLVWULFWV DQG
DQWLFLSDWHGUDLQIDOOFKDQJHIURPWKHEDVH\HDU


 5HVHUYRLU:DWHU%DODQFH0RGHOOLQJ

,UULJDEOH DUHD XQGHU WKH UHVHUYRLU DW HDFK
GLVWULFW ZDV PRGHOOHG IRU 0DKD DQG <DOD
VHDVRQV FRQVLGHULQJ FKDQJHV WR WKH LQIORZ
IURP UDLQIDOO HYDSRUDWLRQ RQ WKH UHVHUYRLU
ZDWHU LUULJDWLRQ GHPDQG GXH WR FKDQJHV LQ
FURS ZDWHU UHTXLUHPHQWV HWF  0RGHO
FRPSXWDWLRQVZHUHEDVHGRQWKHZDWHUEDODQFH
RI WKH UHVHUYRLU V\VWHP GHVFULEHG LQ WKH
JXLGHOLQHVRI,UULJDWLRQ'HSDUWPHQW ,' 
*RYHUQLQJ HTXDWLRQ IRU ZDWHU EDODQFH RI
UHVHUYRLUV\VWHPLVDVVKRZQLQ(TXDWLRQ  

,W (W6HL6SW'W  6W6W  





6&



,Q WKLV HTXDWLRQ W LV WKH WLPH VWHS ZKLFK ZDV


FRQVLGHUHG DV RQH PRQWK , LV WKH ,QIORZ ( LV
WKH HYDSRUDWLRQ IURP WKH ZDWHU VXUIDFH 6H LV
WKH VHHSDJH IURP WKH UHVHUYRLU EHG 6S LV WKH
VSLOODJH IURP WKH UHVHUYRLU ' LV WKH LUULJDWLRQ
GHPDQG6LVWKHVWRUDJHRIWKHUHVHUYRLU

:DWHU EDODQFH XQGHU WKH EDVH VFHQDULR DQG
VFHQDULRV6&6&6&6&ZHUH
FDUULHG RXW WR FRPSXWH WKH IHDVLEOH LUULJDEOH
DUHD IRU 0DKD DQG <DOD 6HDVRQV )LHOG
LUULJDWLRQUHTXLUHPHQWVDQGLUULJDWLRQGHPDQG
SHU XQLW DUHD ZHUH FRPSXWHG WKURXJK WKH
LUULJDWLRQ GHPDQG PRGHO ZKHUH GLVWULFW ZLVH
LUULJDWLRQ GHPDQGV ZHUH GHWHUPLQHG 6LQFH

ENGINEER

6&





$SU

0DU

)HE

-DQ

'HF

1RY

2FW

6HS

-XO

$XJ

-XQ



0D\



)LJXUH3UREDEOH5DLQIDOO
PPPRQWK IRUDQG)XWXUH5DLQIDOO
6FHQDULR$PSDUD'LVWULFW6UL/DQND


50


5HVXOWVDQG'LVFXVVLRQ

GHPDQG 7RJHWKHU ZLWK D GHWHULRUDWLRQ RI


GHOLYHU\ HIILFLHQF\ WKLV LQFUHDVH LQ ZDWHU

GHPDQG LQ VHYHUDO GLVWULFWV URVH WR YDOXHV LQ
 &KDQJHLQ,UULJDWLRQ'HPDQG
WKH UDQJH RI   ,Q FDVH RI DQ HIILFLHQF\

LPSURYHPHQW WR D  VKRZHG WKDW LW LV
3HUFHQWDJH FKDQJH LQ GLVWULFW ZLVH VHDVRQDO
SRVVLEOH WR QHJDWH WKH QHJDWLYH HIIHFWV WKDW
ZDWHU GHPDQG IRU LUULJDWLRQ ZDV FRPSXWHG
DURVH IURP D GHFUHDVH RI UDLQIDOO DQG DQ
UHODWLYHWRWKHEDVHOLQH\HDU )LJXUH LQRUGHU
LQFUHDVHRIHYDSRUDWLRQ
WR DVVHVV WKH VHDVRQDO YDULDWLRQV DV D UHVXOW RI

DQWLFLSDWHG FOLPDWH FKDQJHV )XUWKHUPRUH
)LJXUHVKRZHGDQH[SHFWHGEHKDYLRXUZKHUH
PRGHOFRPSXWDWLRQVHQDEOHGWKHLGHQWLILFDWLRQ
D UHGXFWLRQ RI UDLQIDOO ZRXOG OHDG WR DQ
RI FKDQJH LQ ZDWHU GHPDQG UHODWLYH WR WKH
LQFUHDVH RI ,UULJDWLRQ 'HPDQG ,W FRXOG EH
FRUUHVSRQGLQJFKDQJHLQWKHUDLQIDOO )LJXUH 
QRWHG WKDW LQ FDVH RI VFHQDULR  DQG  WKH
IRU HDFK LUULJDWLRQ VHDVRQ  ,Q )LJXUH  WKH ;
LQFUHDVH RI ZDWHU GHPDQG ZDV OHVV WKDQ WKH
D[LVFRUUHVSRQGVWRWKHFKDQJHLQUDLQIDOODQG
GHFUHDVH LQ UDLQIDOO DQG WKLV FRXOG EH GXH WR
<D[LVFRUUHVSRQGVWRWKH&KDQJHLQ,UULJDWLRQ
WKHKLJKZDWHUDYDLODELOLW\LQWKH0DKDVHDVRQ
'HPDQG (DFK SRLQW UHSUHVHQWV DQ
+RZHYHU DV WKH LUULJDWLRQ DUHD JHWV LQFUHDVHG
DGPLQLVWUDWLYHGLVWULFW
DQG ZKHQ WKH LUULJDWLRQ LQIUDVWUXFWXUH JHWV

GHWHULRUDWHG WKHQ WKLV DGYDQWDJH JHWV
 0DKD6HDVRQ
GLPLQLVKHG


0RGHO FRPSXWDWLRQV LQGLFDWHG WKDW GXULQJ
 <DOD6HDVRQ
0DKDVHDVRQIRUVFHQDULRDQGWKHUDQJHRI

LQFUHDVHLQZDWHUGHPDQG ZDV )LJXUH 
,QFDVHRI<DODVHDVRQPRGHOUHVXOWV )LJXUH 
0DKD VHDVRQ EHLQJ WKH UDLQ\ SHULRG DQ
VKRZV D KLJKHU ZDWHU GHPDQG IRU VFHQDULR 
LQFUHDVH LQ SHDN UXQRII DIIHFWHG E\ UDLQIDOO
DQG  LQ GLVWULFWV VXFK DV &RORPER KDYLQJ
VFHQDULR  UHVXOWHG SRVLWLYHO\ IRU PRVW
UHODWLYHO\ORZLUULJDWHGDJULFXOWXUH6LPLODUWR
GLVWULFWV+RZHYHUDQLQFUHDVHRILUULJDWHGDUHD
0DKD VHDVRQ WKH 6FHQDULR  DQG  VKRZ WKH
6&  LQGLFDWHG D PDUNHG ULVH LQ WKH ZDWHU
&KDQJHLQ0DKD 1( 6HDVRQ
,UULJDWLRQ:DWHU5HTXLUPHQWLQZUW


&KDQJHB








0DWDOH

0RQDUDJDOD

0XOODLWLYX

3RORQQDUXZD

3XWWDODP

7ULQFRPDOHH

9DYXQL\D

0RQDUDJDOD

0XOODLWLYX

3RORQQDUXZD

3XWWDODP

7ULQFRPDOHH

9DYXQL\D

0DQQDU

0DWDOH

0DKDB6F 0DKDB6F 0DKDB6F 0DKDB6F


&KDQJHLQ<DOD 6: 6HDVRQ
,UULJDWLRQ:DWHU5HTXLUPHQWLQZUW

.XUXQHJDOD

.LOOLQRFKFKL

-DIIQD 

+DPEDQWRWD

%DWWLFDORD

%DGXOOD

$QXUDGKDSXUD

$PSDUD

5DWQDSXUD

1XZDUD(OL\D

.HJDOOH

.DQG\

.DOXWDUD

*DPSDKD

*DOOH

&RORPER



0DWDUD



0DKDB6F



&KDQJHB








<DODB6F

<DODB6F

<DODB6F

<DODB6F

0DQQDU

.XUXQHJDOD

.LOOLQRFKFKL

-DIIQD 

+DPEDQWRWD

%DWWLFDORD

%DGXOOD

$QXUDGKDSXUD

$PSDUD

5DWQDSXUD

1XZDUD(OL\D

.HJDOOH

.DQG\

.DOXWDUD

*DPSDKD

*DOOH

&RORPER



0DWDUD



<DODB6F

)LJXUH&RPSDULVRQRI5HODWLYH'LVWULFWZLVH,UULJDWLRQ'HPDQG&KDQJHIRU(DFK&OLPDWH
&KDQJH6FHQDULR

51

ENGINEER

LQVHQVLWLYH IRU VPDOOHU FKDQJHV RI UDLQIDOO


7KLV FOHDUO\ UHIOHFWV WKH EHKDYLRXU RI WKH
UHJLRQV ZLWK YHU\ ORZ UDLQIDOO ZKHUH WKH
UHGXFWLRQVGRQRWKDYHDVLJQLILFDQWLPSDFWRQ
WKHLUULJDWLRQGHPDQG0RUHRYHUWKHYHU\ORZ
UDLQIDOOV DQG YHU\ KLJK UDLQIDOOV DUH ORRNHG
DIWHU LQ WKH GHPDQG PRGHOOLQJ WKURXJK WKH
LQFRUSRUDWLRQRIWKUHVKROG YDOXHVIRUHIIHFWLYH
UDLQIDOO DV JLYHQ LQ WKH ,UULJDWLRQ 'HSDUWPHQW
*XLGHOLQHV 7KHUHIRUHVLPSOHUHODWLRQVKLSVRU
FRQFOXVLRQV FDQQRW EH LGHQWLILHG ZKHQ WKH
V\VWHP LQSXWV DUH FORVH WR WKH WKUHVKROGV RU
EH\RQGWKHWKUHVKROGV

 &KDQJHLQ&XOWLYDWLRQ([WHQW

5DWHVRIFKDQJHRISRVVLEOHFXOWLYDWLRQDUHDIRU
0DKDDQG<DODVHDVRQVXQGHUDUHVHUYRLUDQG
IRU HDFK VFHQDULR ZLWK UHVSHFW WR WKH EDVHOLQH
DUHVKRZQLQ)LJXUH

0RGHO UHVXOWV VKRZ WKDW HYHQ DW D FRQVWDQW
HIILFLHQF\ OHYHO WKH FOLPDWH VFHQDULR  DQG 

LPSDFW RI FOLPDWH HIIHFWV WRJHWKHU ZLWK DQ


LUULJDWHG DUHD H[SDQVLRQ DQG D ORZHULQJ RI
GHOLYHU\HIILFLHQF\7KHVFHQDULRLQGLFDWHGD
ULVH RI ZDWHU GHPDQG LQ VHYHUDO GLVWULFWV WR
YDOXHV EHWZHHQ   $V LQ WKH 0DKD
VHDVRQ DQ LPSURYHPHQW RQ WKH HIILFLHQF\
ZRXOG EH DEOH WR FRXQWHU WKH FOLPDWH FKDQJH
HIIHFWVGXULQJWKH<DOD6HDVRQWRR

0RGHO UHVXOWV LQ )LJXUH  IRU <DOD VHDVRQ
LQGLFDWH WKDW WKH FKDQJHV RI UDLQIDOO GRHV QRW
VKRZ D FOHDU UHODWLRQVKLS WR WKH FKDQJHV
UHIOHFWHG LQ WKH LUULJDWLRQ 'HPDQG YDOXHV
7KRXJKWKHJHQHUDOWHQGHQF\FRXOGEHVHHQLQ
FDVH RI 6FHQDULR  DQG  WKH UHVSRQVH LV
<DOD6HDVRQ,'&KDQJHZLWK5)





0DKD6HDVRQ















6&








6&

6&

6&

















0DKD6HDVRQ,'&KDQJHZLWK5)



<DOD6HDVRQ



6&



6&

6&

6&







   




























)LJXUH&RPSDULVRQRI5DLQIDOO
&KDQJHDQGWKH&RUUHVSRQGLQJ
,UULJDWLRQ'HPDQG&KDQJHIRUHDFK
6SDWLDO8QLWDQG(DFK&OLPDWH&KDQJH

ENGINEER

)LJXUH9DULDWLRQRI0DKDDQG<DOD
,UULJDEOH$UHD8QGHUD0LQRU
,UULJDWLRQ5HVHUYRLU

52

ZRXOGFUHDWHDVLJQLILFDQWORVVRILUULJDEOHDUHD
XQGHU HDFK WDQN LQ FDVH RI D FOLPDWH FKDQJH
UHVXOWLQJDUHGXFWLRQRIUDLQIDOO,QWKH$PSDUD
GLVWULFW ZKHUH WKH UDLQIDOO LV H[SHFWHG WR
LQFUHDVH ZLWK UHVSHFW WR  WKH 6FHQDULR 
ZRXOG VXSSRUW WKH IXQFWLRQLQJ RI WKH V\VWHP
HYHQ ZLWK WKH SRVVLELOLW\ RI HQKDQFLQJ WKH
H[WHQW XQGHU FXOWLYDWLRQ  +RZHYHU ZKHQ WKH
UDLQIDOO LV FRQFHQWUDWHG WR WKH ZHW PRQWK WKH
UHVHUYRLU V\VWHP GRHV QRW UHFHLYH D EHQHILW DV
VSLOODJH RFFXUV LQ PRVW RI WKH RFFDVLRQV
8QGHUVXFKH[WUHPHYDOXHFKDQJHVLWLVQRWHG
WKDW WKH <DOD VHDVRQ UHGXFWLRQ RI H[WHQW LV
JUHDWHU  6FHQDULR  LQGLFDWHV WKDW WKH
GHWHULRUDWLRQRIWKHGHOLYHU\V\VWHPRUKDYLQJ
D SRRU GHOLYHU\ V\VWHP DQG KDYLQJ D SRRU
PDQDJHPHQW V\VWHP ZRXOG DJJUDYDWH WKH
VLWXDWLRQ 0D[LPXP SRVVLEOH LUULJDEOH DUHD
XQGHU HDFK UHVHUYRLU FRPSXWHG WKURXJK
UHVHUYRLU ZDWHU EDODQFH ZHUH FRQYHUWHG WR
SHUFHQWDJH FKDQJH LQ DUHD LQ RUGHU WR REWDLQ
GLVWULFWZLVHODQGH[WHQWV/LWHUDWXUHUHSRUWHG
0DKD DQG <DOD SDGG\ FXOWLYDWLRQ H[WHQWV
$PDUDVLQJKH
0XWXZDWWH
DQG
6DNWKLYDGLYHO  LQ HDFK VHOHFWHG GLVWULFW
ZHUH XVHG ZLWK D SURSRUWLRQDOLW\ UHODWLRQVKLS
WR FRPSXWH WKH GLVWULFW ZLVH LUULJDEOH DUHD
FKDQJHGXHWRFOLPDWHFKDQJHVFHQDULR )LJXUH
 

7KHVH PRGHO UHVXOWV IRU 0DKD DQG <DOD VKRZ

WKDW WKHUH ZRXOG EH D YHU\ VLJQLILFDQW LPSDFW


RQ WKH SDGG\ IDUPHUV DV D UHVXOW RI FOLPDWH
FKDQJHDQGWKLVZRXOGUHDFKYHU\KLJKYDOXHV
LQ FDVH RI SRRU PDQDJHPHQW RI UHVHUYRLU
V\VWHPV


 &RQFOXVLYH'LUHFWLRQVDQG
,PSURYHPHQWV

$ 7KH VWXG\ LQGLFDWHV WKDW WKH FOLPDWH
FKDQJH VFHQDULR KDV D VLJQLILFDQW LPSDFW
RQ WKH ZDWHU UHTXLUHPHQW IRU LUULJDWLRQ
SXUSRVHV7KLVZRXOGEXUGHQRUVWUHVVWKH
HQYLURQPHQWDO IORZV DQG DOVR H[HUW
SUHVVXUH RQ WKH LUULJDWLRQ LQIUDVWUXFWXUH
HLWKHU UHTXLULQJ H[SDQVLRQV RU IRUFLQJ WR
IXQFWLRQFORVHUWRWKHLUGHVLJQOLPLWV
% 7KLV VLWXDWLRQ ZRXOG DJJUDYDWH ZLWK
LUULJDWHG DUHD H[SDQVLRQV DV D UHVXOW RI
FXOWLYDWLRQ GULYHV ZKLFK DUH IRUFHG E\
KLJK IRRG SULFHV LQ WKH ORFDO PDUNHW KLJK
LPSRUW ELOOV IRU LPSRUWHG IRRG LWHPV DQG
WKHJURZWKRISRSXODWLRQ

& 7KHSUHVHQWVWXG\VKRZHGWKDWQHJOHFWLQJ
WKH LUULJDWLRQ V\VWHPV WKHUHE\ GHFUHDVLQJ
WKH HIILFLHQFLHV ZRXOG VLJQLILFDQWO\
LQFUHDVH WKH ZDWHU UHTXLUHPHQWV ZKLFK
ZRXOG OHDG WR PRUH H[SHQGLWXUH RQ
LQIUDVWUXFWXUH UHKDELOLWDWLRQ DQG QHZ
V\VWHP H[SDQVLRQV  $V VXFK LW LV RI
H[WUHPH LPSRUWDQFH WR HIIHFW VXLWDEOH
PDQDJHPHQW LQWHUYHQWLRQV LQ RUGHU WR
LGHQWLI\ DQG PLWLJDWH WKH FOLPDWH FKDQJH
LPSDFWV  &DSDFLW\ EXLOGLQJ HIIHFWLQJ
VXLWDEOH
PDLQWHQDQFH
SURJUDPPHV
LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI ZDWHU DOORFDWLRQV
HVWDEOLVKLQJ VXLWDEOH GDWD FROOHFWLRQ
SURJUDPPHV DUH VHYHUDO RSWLRQV DPRQJ
RWKHU,:50DOWHUQDWLYHVIRUPLWLJDWLQJWKH
FOLPDWHFKDQJHLPSDFWV

' ,Q WKLV VWXG\ VHYHUDO DVVXPSWLRQV VXFK DV
D SURMHFW HIILFLHQF\ YDOXH ZLWKRXW VSDWLDO
RUWHPSRUDOYDULDWLRQDFRPPRQIDUPORVV
IRUDOOGLVWULFWVDIL[HGFRHIILFLHQWIRULQWUD
DQQXDO
UDLQIDOO
GLVWULEXWLRQ
ZHUH
LQFRUSRUDWHG $OVR WKH SDGG\ W\SH
FXOWLYDWHG LQ HDFK VHDVRQ DQG WKH 2)&V
XVHG IRU PRGHOOLQJ ZHUH XQLIRUP IRU DOO
GLVWULFWV 7KRXJK WKHVH DVVXPSWLRQV
SURYLGH UHVXOWV WR PDNH QDWLRQDO OHYHO
GHFLVLRQPDNLQJLQWKHSUHVHQWGD\FRQWH[W
ZKHUH QR UHVHDUFK KDV EHHQ GRQH WR OLQN
FOLPDWH FKDQJH LPSDFWV WR LUULJDWLRQ

0DKD6HDVRQ +D








6&

6&

6&

6&

<DOD6HDVRQ +D








6&

6&

6&

6&

)LJXUH   (VWLPDWH RI 0DKD DQG <DOD


,UULJDEOH $UHD 9DULDWLRQ LQ +D IRU (DFK
6HOHFWHG'LVWULFW

53

ENGINEER

LQIUDVWUXFWXUH VWXGLHV VLPLODU WR WKH RQH


GHVFULEHG LQ WKLV ZRUN VKRXOG EH FDUULHG
RXWZLWKPRUHVSHFLILFGDWDDQGLQJUHDWHU
GHWDLO LQ RUGHU WR LGHQWLI\ VFKHPH OHYHO
UHVXOWV ZLWK UHJDUGV WR WKH RSWLPXP
SDGG\ RU 2)& YDULHWLHV ODQG DUHDV WR EH
LUULJDWHG DQG FXOWLYDWLRQ FDOHQGDUV
LQFRUSRUDWLQJ WKH VSDWLDO YDULDWLRQ RI UDLQ
DQGHYDSRUDWLRQ


( 7KH PRGHOOLQJ HIIRUWV LQ WKLV ZRUN
DVVHVVHGWKHSUREDEOHLPSDFWVRIUHVHUYRLU
OLPLWDWLRQV DV D UHVXOW RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH
WKURXJK D VWXG\ RI IRXU GLVWULFWV ZKLFK
ZRXOG H[SHULHQFH GHFOLQLQJ DV ZHOO DV
LQFUHDVLQJUDLQIDOOV(YHQZLWKDQLQFUHDVH
RIUDLQIDOOVFHQDULRDQG LQGLFDWHGWKDW
$PSDUD GLVWULFW ZRXOG H[SHULHQFH
GLIILFXOWLHV ZLWK D UHGXFWLRQ LQ FXOWLYDWLRQ
DUHD,QFDVHRI3RORQQDUXZDWKHUHGXFWLRQ
RIDUHDZLWKVFHQDULR ZDVWKHKLJKHVWDW
LQ<DODDQGWKHORZHVWDWLQ0DKD
7KHUHIRUH VWXG\ RQ W\SLFDO PLQRU
UHVHUYRLUV DQG SRVVLEOH HIIHFWV RQ WKH
LUULJDEOH DUHD UHYHDOV WKDW HYHQ LI WKHUH LV
DGHTXDWHZDWHUUHVRXUFHVLQWKHFRXQWU\WR
FRSH ZLWK WKH FOLPDWH FKDQJH VFHQDULR DW
WKH SUHVHQW RU D PRGHUDWH OHYHO RI
GHYHORSPHQW WKHUH FRXOG EH D PDMRU
SUREOHP GXH WR WKH FRQVWUDLQWV RI PLQRU
UHVHUYRLUV GXH WR FDSDFLW\ OLPLWDWLRQV
$FFRUGLQJO\ LW LV YHU\ LPSRUWDQW IRU
PDQDJHUV DQG SROLF\ OHYHO GHFLVLRQ
PDNHUV WR HIIHFW HDUO\ DGDSWDWLRQ DFWLRQV
WR VWUHQJWKHQ WKH ZDWHU UHVRXUFHV
PDQDJHPHQW LQ WKH LUULJDWLRQ VHFWRU DQG
HVSHFLDOO\LQPLQRUWDQNFDVFDGHV\VWHPV

) 7KH VFHQDULR LGHQWLILFDWLRQV VHOHFWHG
W\SLFDO YDOXHV RI SURMHFW HIILFLHQFLHV  ,Q
FDVH RI EHWWHU DSSUR[LPDWLRQV WKH
FRPSXWHU PRGHOV XVHG IRU LUULJDWLRQ
GHPDQG FRPSXWDWLRQV DQG V\VWHP ZDWHU
EDODQFH SURYLGH RSWLRQV IRU D GHFLVLRQ
PDNHU+RZHYHUGHWDLOHGVWXGLHVVKRXOG
LQFRUSRUDWH WKH VSDWLDO YDULDWLRQ RI
FRPPHQFHPHQW GDWHV SURMHFW HIILFLHQFLHV
DQG FURS W\SHV VR WKDW EHWWHU RXW SXWV
GHVLUHGDWSURMHFWOHYHOFRXOGEHFRPSXWHG
IRU WKH LQFRUSRUDWLRQ RI PDQDJHPHQW
LQWHUYHQWLRQV WR PLWLJDWHG FOLPDWH FKDQJH
LPSDFWV

* ,QWKHDEVHQFHRIKLVWRULFDOUDLQIDOOUHFRUGV
WRDVVHVVWKHEHVWVXLWHGPRGHOWKH&6,52
PRGHO RXWSXWV ZKLFK SURYLGHG ZLWK

ENGINEER

PRGHUDWH YDOXHV ZDV FKRVHQ IRU WKH


FRPSDUDWLYH DVVHVVPHQW LQ WKH SUHVHQW
ZRUN  ,Q FDVH RI LGHQWLI\LQJ D UHOLDEOH
FOLPDWHSUHGLFWLRQVZKLFKLVRISDUDPRXQW
LPSRUWDQFH IRU PLWLJDWLRQ RU DGDSWDWLRQ
DFWLYLWLHV LW LV LPSRUWDQW IRU 6UL /DQND WR
XVHSDVWGDWDIRUWKHFRPSDULVRQRIDFWXDO
YDOXHVZLWKPRGHOOHGFOLPDWHSUHGLFDWLRQV
LQ RUGHU WR HVWDEOLVK UHODWLRQVKLSV  6LQFH
WKHVH UHODWLRQVKLSV ZRXOG IDFLOLWDWH PRUH
UHOLDEOHRXWSXWVVWXGLHVSHUWDLQLQJWRVXFK
VKRXOGEHLQLWLDWHGDWWKHHDUOLHVW

 &RQFOXVLRQV


 $ VSDWLDOO\ GLVWULEXWHG VHDVRQDO ZDWHU
UHVRXUFHV
DQDO\VLV
HQDEOHG
WKH
LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI GLVWULFW ZLVH FOLPDWH
FKDQJH LPSDFWV RQ LUULJDWLRQ ZDWHU
GHPDQG DQG WKH LPSDFW RQ WKH FXOWLYDEOH
H[WHQWV IDFLOLWDWLQJ WKH GHFLVLRQ PDNHU WR
VHOHFWDSSURSULDWHDGDSWDWLRQPHDVXUHV
 7KH PRGHOOLQJ FOHDUO\ LQGLFDWHG WKH RUGHU
RI PDJQLWXGH RI DGYHUVH HIIHFWV WKDW PD\
DULVH GXH WR ODFN RI PDLQWHQDQFH RI
LUULJDWLRQ LQIUDVWUXFWXUH FRPELQHG ZLWK
SUHGLFWHG FOLPDWH FKDQJH WKHUHE\
HPSKDVLVLQJ WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI HIIHFWLYH
DQG HIILFLHQW ZDWHU DQG DVVRFLDWHG
LQIUDVWUXFWXUH
PDQDJHPHQW
IRU
D
VXVWDLQDEOHVRFLRHFRQRPLFHQYLURQPHQW
 ,W LV QHFHVVDU\ WR FDUU\RXW LQGLYLGXDO
LUULJDWLRQ VFKHPH RU UHVHUYRLU V\VWHP
EDVHG PRGHOOLQJ ZLWK VXLWDEOH VSDWLDOO\
DQG WHPSRUDOO\ GLVWULEXWHG GDWDVHWV IRU
LQFRUSRUDWLRQ RI ORFDWLRQ
VSHFLILF
DGDSWDWLRQPHDVXUHV
 &OLPDWH FKDQJH LPSDFWV DORQJ ZLWK D
GHWHULRUDWLRQ RI LUULJDWLRQ V\VWHP
HIILFLHQF\IURPWRDQGSUHVVXUHG
E\ LQFUHDVH RI FXOWLYDWLRQ H[WHQWV ZRXOG
LQFUHDVH ZDWHU GHPDQGV LQ ERWK VHDVRQV
UHDFKLQJYDOXHVDVKLJKDVDWVRPH
GLVWULFWV
 ,PSDFW RI UHVHUYRLU VWRUDJH OLPLWDWLRQV RQ
WKH DQWLFLSDWHG FOLPDWH FKDQJH VFHQDULR DW
WKH VWXGLHG ORFDWLRQV LGHQWLILHG WKDW ZLWK
DGHWHULRUDWLQJV\VWHPHIILFLHQF\IURP
WR  ZRXOG OHDG WR UHGXFWLRQ LQ
FRPPDQGDUHDVUHDFKLQJWRYDOXHVRI
LQ0DKDDQGLQ<DOD




54


5HIHUHQFHV


 $PDUDVLQJKH 8$ 0XWXZDWWH / DQG


6DNWKLYDGLYHO 5 :DWHU 6FDUFLW\
9DULDWLRQVZLWKLQD&RXQWU\$&DVH6WXG\
RI 6UL /DQND 5HVHDUFK 5HSRUW 
,QWHUQDWLRQDO
:DWHU
0DQDJHPHQW
,QVWLWXWH ,6%1 ; ,661 
&RORPER6UL/DQND

 (YDSRUDWLRQ DQG 7UDQVSLUDWLRQ &OLPDWH
&KDQJH &OHDULQJKRXVH :DWHU 5HVHDUFK
)RXQGDWLRQKWWSZZZWKHFOLPDWHFKDQJ
HFOHDULQ JKRXVHRUJ+\GURORJLF(IIHFWV
9LVLWHGLQ'HF

 )HUQDQGR $'1 7KH $QFLHQW +\GUDXOLF
&LYLOLVWLRQ RI 6UL /DQND LQ 5HODWLRQ WR
1DDWXUDO5HVRXUFHV-RXUQDORIWKH6UL/DQND
%UDQFK RI WKH 5R\DO $VLDWLF 6RFLHW\ 5HLG
$YHQXH&RORPER

 )HUQDQGR 7. DQG &KDQGUDSDOD /
*OREDO :DUPLQJ DQG 5DLQIDOO 9DULDELOLW\
7KH6UL/DQNDQ6LWXDWLRQ3URFHHGLQJVRI
WK ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 0HHWLQJ RQ 6WDWLVWLFDO
&OLPDWRORJ\7RURQWR&DQDGD

 3RQUDMDK $ - 3 'HVLJQ RI ,UULJLRQ
+HDGZRUNVIRU6PDOO&DWFKPHQWVQG(GLWLRQ
,UULJDWLRQ 'HSDUWPHQW &RORPER 6UL
/DQND

 ,' ,UULJDWLRQ 'HSDUWPHQW :DWHU
6WDWLVWLFV KDQGERRN 'HSDUWPHQW RI
,UULJDWLRQ&RORPER6UL/DQND

 ,PEXODQD.$86:LMHVHNHUD176DQG
1HXSDQH %5 HGV  6UL /DQND 1DWLRQDO
:DWHU 'HYHORSPHQW 5HSRUW 0$, 0' 81
::$3 81(6&2 DQG 8QLYHUVLW\ RI
0RUDWXZD ,6%1    6UL
/DQND3DULVDQG1HZ'HOKL

 6RORPRQ64LQ'0DQQLQJ0&KHQ
= 0DUTXLV 0 $YHU\W .% 7LJQRU 0
DQG 0LOOHU +/ HGV  6XPPDU\ IRU
3ROLF\PDNHUV ,Q &OLPDWH &KDQJH  7KH
3K\VLFDO 6FLHQFH %DVLV &RQWULEXWLRQ RI
:RUNLQJ *URXS , WR WKH )RXUWK $VVHVVPHQW
5HSRUW RI WKH ,QWHUJRYHUQPHQWDO 3DQHO RQ
&OLPDWH &KDQJH &DPEULGJH 8QLYHUVLW\
3UHVV &DPEULGJH 8QLWHG .LQJGRP DQG
1HZ<RUN1<86$

 3DUU\ 0/ &DQ]LDQL 2) 3DOXWLNRI -3
9DQGHU /LQGHQ 3- DQG +DQVRQ &(
(GV 6XPPDU\ IRU 3ROLF\PDNHUV ,Q &OLPDWH
&KDQJH  ,PSDFWV $GDSWDWLRQ DQG
9XOQHUDELOLW\&RQWULEXWLRQRI:RUNLQJ*URXS
,, WR WKH )RXUWK $VVHVVPHQW 5HSRUW RI WKH
,QWHUJRYHUQPHQWDO3DQHORQ&OLPDWH&KDQJH



















55



&DPEULGJH 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV &DPEULGJH
8.

-D\DWLOODNH +0 &KDQGUDSDOD /
%DVQD\DNH %56% DQG 'KDUPDUDWQH
*+3 :DWHU 5HVRXUFHV DQG &OLPDWH
&KDQJH3URFHHGLQJV:RUNVKRSRQ6UL/DQND
1DWLRQDO:DWHU'HYHORSPHQW5HSRUW

-D\DWLOODNH +0 &KDQGUDSDOD /
%DVQD\DNH %56% 'KDUPDUDWQH *+3
:DWHU 5HVRXUFHV DQG &OLPDWH &KDQJH
3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH 3UHSDUDWRU\ :RUNVKRS RQ
6UL /DQND 1DWLRQDO :DWHU 'HYHORSPHQW
3URMHFW

-D\DWLOODNH +0 &KDQGUDSDOD /
%DVQD\DNH %56% DQG 'KDUPDUDWQH
*+3 :DWHU 5HVRXUFHV DQG &OLPDWH
&KDQJH3URFHHGLQJV:RUNVKRSRQ6UL/DQND
1DWLRQDO :DWHU 'HYHORSPHQW 5HSRUW HGV
:LMHVHNHUD176,PEXODQD.$86DQG
1HXSDQH %:RUOG :DWHU $VVHVVPHQW
3URJUDPPH3DULV)UDQFH

0DOO5.*XSWD$NKLOHVK6LQJK5DQMHHW
6LQJK 5 6 DQG 5DWKRUH / 6 :DWHU
5HVRXUFHVDQG&OLPDWH&KDQJH$Q,QGLDQ
3HUVSHFWLYH &XUUHQW 6FLHQFH 9RO  1R
-XQH

0DOO 5. %KDWOD 5 DQG 3DQGH\ 61
:DWHU 5HVRXUFHV LQ ,QGLD DQG ,PSDFW RI
&OLPDWH &KDQJH -XOYLJ\XQ 6DPHHNVKX
9RO

%MRUQ 0DOPJUHQ 5DQDWXQJH +XOXJDOOD
<RXVD\ +D\DVKLE DQG 7DNHKLNR 0LNDPL
3UHFLSLWDWLRQ 7UHQGV ,Q 6UL /DQND 6LQFH
WKH V DQG 5HODWLRQVKLSV WR (O 1L1R
6RXWKHUQ 2VFLOODWLRQ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO
RI &OLPDWRORJ\ ,QW - &OLPDWRORJ\  
 3XEOLVKHG 2QOLQH LQ :LOH\
,QWHUVFLHQFH

0XNKHLELU 3 3RVVLEOH &OLPDWH &KDQJH
,PSDFWV RQ ODUJH +\GURHOHFWULFLW\
6FKHPHV LQ 6RXWKHUQ $IULFD -RXUQDO RI
(QHUJ\ LQ 6RXWKHUQ $IULFD 9RO  1R 
)HEUXDU\

1DZD] 1 5 $GHOR\H $ - DQG
0RQWDVHUL 07KH ,PSDFW RI &OLPDWH
&KDQJHRQ6WRUDJH<LHOG&XUYHVIRU0XOWL
5HVHUYRLU6\VWHPV1RUGLF+\GURORJ\
 

3UDFWLFDO$FWLRQ3URPRWLQJ$GDSWDWLRQWR
&OLPDWH &KDQJH LQ 6UL /DQND $ EULHILQJ
IRU
*RYHUQPHQW
$GYLVRUV
DQG

ENGINEER

'HYHORSPHQW
3UDFWLWLRQHUV
KWWSSUDFWLFDODFWLRQRUJDGYRFDF\GRFV
DGYRFDF\$GDSWDWLRQBWRBFOLPDWHBFKDQJ
HB6ULB/DQNDSGIYLVLWHGLQ'HFHPEHU

 3DUU\0/&DQ]LDQL2)3DOXWLNRI-3
YDQGHU /LQGHQ 3- DQG +DQVRQ &(
(GV 7HFKQLFDO 6XPPDU\ &OLPDWH
&KDQJH  ,PSDFWV $GDSWDWLRQ DQG
9XOQHUDELOLW\ &RQWULEXWLRQ RI :RUNLQJ
*URXS,,WRWKH)RXUWK$VVHVVPHQW5HSRUW
RI WKH ,QWHUJRYHUQPHQWDO 3DQHO RQ &OLPDWH
&KDQJH &DPEULGJH 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV
&DPEULGJH8.

 6XUYH\7KH1DWLRQDO$WODVRI6UL/DQND
$JUR
(FRORJLFDO
5HJLRQV
6XUYH\
'HSDUWPHQW ,6%1  6UL
/DQND

 :LMHVHNHUD 176 HG LQ FKLHI 
(QYLURQPHQWDO $WODV RI 6UL /DQND
&HQWUDO
(QYLURQPHQWDO
$XWKRULW\
0LQLVWU\ RI (QYLURQPHQW DQG 1DWXUDO
5HVRXUFHV %DWWDUDPXOOD ,6%1  
6UL/DQND

ENGINEER

56

ENGINEER - Vol. XXXXIV, No. 02, pp. [57-60], 2011


The Institution of Engineers, Sri Lanka

'HWHQWLRQ5HVHUYRLUVDVD)ORRG&RQWURO0HDVXUH


3+HWWLDUDFKFKL

$EVWUDFW(PSOR\LQJGHWHQWLRQUHVHUYRLUVIRUPLWLJDWLQJIORRGVLVDZLGHO\DSSOLHGVWUDWHJ\DOORYHU
WKH ZRUOG 7KLV LV VXLWDEOH IRU VPDOO XUEDQ GUDLQDJH V\VWHPV DV ZHOO DV IRU ODUJH IOXYLDO IORRG
SURWHFWLRQ VFKHPHV 7KLV WHFKQLTXH LV PRVWO\ DSSOLFDEOH IRU WKH XUEDQ DUHDV ZKHUH FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI
IORRGEXQGVLVUHVWULFWHGGXHWRKLJKYDOXHRISURSHUWLHVWREHUHPRYHG

'HWHQWLRQUHVHUYRLUFDQEHORFDWHGZLWKLQWKHDUHDWREHSURWHFWHGRUVRPHZKHUHXSVWUHDPZLWKORZ
SRSXODWLRQGHQVLW\DQGORZHFRQRPLFYDOXH7KLVZLOOQRWRQO\SURWHFWWKHDUHDWREHSURWHFWHGIURP
IORRGLQJ EXW DOVR SURYLGH IDFLOLWLHV IRU ZDWHU EDVHG UHFUHDWLRQDO DFWLYLWLHV DQ DWWUDFWLYH IHDWXUH RI
PRGHUQFLWLHV)XUWKHULWLVDVXVWDLQDEOHDQGORZFRVWDSSURDFKIUHHRIDGYHUVHHIIHFWVVXFKDVODQG
VXEVLGHQFHGHSOHWLRQRIJURXQGZDWHUHWF

7KLVSDSHUZLOOGLVFXVVKRZWKLVWHFKQLTXHFRXOGEHDSSOLHGIRUWKHSURWHFWLRQRIFLWLHVORFDWHGLQIORRG
SODLQVRIPDMRUULYHUVRIRXUFRXQWU\


LL
5HGXFWLRQ RI VXUIDFH UXQRII E\

,QWURGXFWLRQ
FKDQJLQJ WKH ODQG XVH SDWWHUQ LQ WKH

XSSHU
FDWFKPHQW
ZDWHUVKHG
)ORRG KD]DUGV RI RXU FRXQWU\ KDYH LQFUHDVHG
PDQDJHPHQW 
GUDVWLFDOO\ LQ UHFHQW KLVWRU\ GXH WR

XUEDQL]DWLRQ DQG SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK
LLL
,QFUHDVH RI GUDLQDJH FDSDFLWLHV E\
)UHTXHQF\ RI KLJK LQWHQVLW\ UDLQIDOOV LV DOVR
HQODUJLQJ
ZLGHQLQJ
DQGRU
LQFUHDVLQJGXHWRFOLPDWHFKDQJH)RUH[DPSOH
GHHSHQLQJ  ULYHU FKDQQHOV ZKHUH HYHU
6UL /DQNDQ FRPPHUFLDO FDSLWDO &RORPER FLW\
QHFHVVDU\
H[SHULHQFHG WZR H[WUHPH VWRUP HYHQWV 

PPLQKRXUVDQGPPLQKRXUV ZLWKLQ
LY
,QWURGXFWLRQ RI HDUO\ ZDUQLQJ V\VWHP
\HDUV LQDQG %RWKHYHQWVH[FHHG
DQG WLPHO\ HYDFXDWLRQ RI SHRSOH DQG
 \HDU IUHTXHQF\ UDLQIDOO DFFRUGLQJ WR RXU
YDOXDEOHVIURPWKHIORRGSURQHDUHDV
FODVVLILFDWLRQ EDVHG RQ WKH IUHTXHQF\ DQDO\VLV

RI SDVW UHFRUGV  DQG VXFK KLJK LQWHQVLW\
Y
&RQVWUXFWLRQ RI E\SDVV FDQDOV WR
UDLQIDOOV KDG QRW EHHQ REVHUYHG EHIRUH 0RUH
GLYHUWSHDNIORZVLQDOWHUQDWLYHSDWKV
WKDQ  IDPLOLHV ZHUH DIIHFWHG E\ WKH

UHFHQWIORRGLQODVW1RYHPEHU
YL
&RQVWUXFWLRQRIPXOWLSXUSRVHVWRUDJH


UHVHUYRLUV
(YHQ WKRXJK LW LV GLIILFXOW WR GHYHORS IORRG

FRQWURO IDFLOLWLHV WR FRSH ZLWK VXFK ELJ HYHQWV
YLL
&RQVWUXFWLRQ RI GHWHQWLRQ UHVHUYRLUV
LWKDVWREHUHDOL]HGWKDWDGRSWLQJVRPHNLQGRI
IRU WHPSRUDU\ VWRUDJH DQG FRQWUROOHG
SURWHFWLYH PHDVXUHV WR PLQLPL]H WKH GDPDJHV
UHOHDVHRIIORRGZDWHU
DUH D SDUDPRXQW QHFHVVLW\ 6RPH RI WKH

IROORZLQJ
DOWHUQDWLYHV
GHSHQGLQJ
RQ
&RPELQDWLRQRIVHYHUDODOWHUQDWLYHVPHQWLRQHG
JHRJUDSKLFDO DQG VRFLRHFRQRPLF IHDWXUHV RI
DERYH PD\ EH PRUH DSSURSULDWH IRU D
WKH DUHD FDQ EH DGRSWHG LQ PLWLJDWLQJ VXFK
SDUWLFXODU FDVH 7KH ODVW RSWLRQ ZLOO EH ZLGHO\
KD]DUGV
GLVFXVVHGLQWKLVSDSHUVLQFHWKLVVHHPVDQHZ

DSSURDFK PRVW DSSURSULDWH IRU WKH XUEDQ

$OWHUQDWLYH )ORRG &RQWURO
DUHDV RI RXU FRXQWU\ &RQYHUWLQJ WKLV WR D
0HDVXUHV
PXOWLSXUSRVHUHVHUYRLURSWLRQZLOOPDNHLW


L
'LYHUVLRQ RI VXUSOXV ZDWHU IURP WKH
XSSHU FDWFKPHQW WR DGMDFHQW EDVLQV
(QJ0UV3+HWWLDUDFKFKL%6F(QJ&(QJ
WUDQVEDVLQGLYHUVLRQ 
0,( 6UL/DQND06F+\GURORJ\


57

ENGINEER

SRVVLEOH WR DGGUHVV VRPH RWKHU FUXFLDO


SUREOHPV VXFK DV LUULJDWLRQ ZDWHU VXSSO\
SRZHU SURGXFWLRQ HWF 6LQJOH SXUSRVH IORRG
GHWHQWLRQ RQO\  UHVHUYRLU LV PRUH VXLWDEOH IRU
ORZ O\LQJ DUHDV ZKHUH SURYLGLQJ D SRWHQWLDO
KHDG UHTXLUHG IRU K\GURSRZHU RU LUULJDWLRQ LV
QRW SRVVLEOH +RZHYHU WKLV FDQ EH FRPELQHG
ZLWK VRPH RWKHU SXUSRVHV VXFK DV LQODQG
ILVKLQJUHFUHDWLRQQDWXUHSUHVHUYLQJHWF

&RQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV FDQ EH PLQLPL]HG E\
VHOHFWLQJ
VXLWDEOH
QDWXUDO
JHRJUDSKLF
IRUPDWLRQV VXFK DV QDWXUDO ODNHV DQG PDUVK\
ODQGV ZKLFK FDQ HDVLO\ EH FRQYHUWHG WR
GHWHQWLRQSRQGV






2IIVWUHDP
UHVHUYRLU
7HPSRUDU\
GHWHQWLRQDUHD

3HUPDQHQW
SRRO

5LYHU

,QOHW 2XWOHW
FDQDOV

6HD



)LJXUH 7ZR 7\SHV RI )ORRG 'HWHQWLRQ
5HVHUYRLUV



7\SHV RI )ORRG 'HWHQWLRQ


5HVHUYRLUV


7KHUHDUHWZRGLVWLQFWW\SHVRIIORRGGHWHQWLRQ
UHVHUYRLUV FDOOHG RQ VWUHDP DQG RII VWUHDP
GHSHQGLQJ RQ WKH ORFDWLRQ RI WKH UHVHUYRLU
UHODWLYH WR WKH VWUHDP DV LOOXVWUDWHG LQ WKH
)LJXUH , ,Q DQ RQ VWUHDP UHVHUYRLU GU\
ZHDWKHU IORZ SDVVHV WKURXJK WKH VWRUDJH DUHD
ZKHUHDVLQRIIVWUHDPUHVHUYRLUGU\ZHDWKHU
IORZE\SDVVHVWKHVWRUDJHDUHD

)XUWKHUFODVVLILFDWLRQLVSRVVLEOHGHSHQGLQJRQ
ZKHWKHU WKH VWRUDJH DUHD LV IUHH RI ZDWHU
GXULQJ GU\ ZHDWKHU FRQGLWLRQV GU\ UHVHUYRLU 
RU KDV D SHUPDQHQW SRRO ZHW UHVHUYRLU  $Q
LQWHUPHGLDWHFDVH ZHW GU\UHVHUYRLU LVDOVR
SRVVLEOH ZKHUH WKH SHUPDQHQW SRRO LV PXFK
VPDOOHU WKDQ WKH WRWDO DUHD DYDLODEOH IRU
VWRUDJH 7KH ODVW W\SH LV PRVW DSSURSULDWH IRU
PDQ\ RI WKH FDVHV KDYLQJ UDSLG LQIORZV
UHTXLULQJYDVWDUHDVIRUWHPSRUDU\GHWHQWLRQ


)RUDQRIIVWUHDPUHVHUYRLUDWOHDVWWZRIORZ
FRQWUROVWUXFWXUHVDUHUHTXLUHGDWWKHSRLQWVRI
LQIORZWRWKHUHVHUYRLUDQGDWWKHRXWOHWRIWKH
UHVHUYRLU7KRVHLQWDNHVDQGRXWOHWVPD\HLWKHU
EH ZHLUV RU FRQWURO JDWHV GHSHQGLQJ RQ WKH
FDSDFLWLHV UHTXLUHG DQG WKH WRSRJUDSK\ RI WKH
DUHD

ENGINEER

2QVWUHDP
UHVHUYRLUV




+RZLW)XQFWLRQV

:KDWHYHUWKHW\SHRIWKHUHVHUYRLULWKDVWREH
GLVFKDUJHG WR D QDWXUDO VWUHDP DUWLILFLDO FDQDO
RUGLUHFWO\WRVHDDIWHUUHWDLQLQJIORRGZDWHUIRU
VRPHVSHFLILHGSHULRGXQWLOWKHVWRUPFHDVHVRU
WKHIORRGSHDNSDVVHVWKHDUHD,QDQRQVWUHDP
UHVHUYRLU ZDWHU HQWHUV WKH UHVHUYRLU WKURXJK
QDWXUDO ZDWHU ZD\V ZKLOH LQ WKH RWKHU W\SH
ZDWHU PD\ HQWHU IURP WKH ULYHU WKURXJK D
FRQWUROJDWHZHLURUDVSLOOZD\2XWOHWPD\EH
DZHLURUFRQWUROJDWHLQERWKFDVHV

:KHQWKHUHLVDFRQWUROOHGRXWOHWWKHRSHUDWRU
PD\ YDU\ WKH JDWH RSHQLQJ VR WKDW GXULQJ
ULVLQJOLPERI LQIORZK\GURJUDSK WKH RXWIORZ
ZLOO PDWFKWKHLQIORZXQWLOWKHFDSDFLW\RIWKH
GRZQVWUHDPFKDQQHOLVUHDFKHG VHH)LJXUH 
7KHUHDIWHU WKH JDWH PD\ EH XVHG WR PDLQWDLQ
WKH RXWIORZ QRW H[FHHGLQJ GRZQVWUHDP FDQDO
FDSDFLW\  ZKLOH H[FHVV ZDWHU LV WDNHQ LQWR
VWRUDJH XQWLO WKH LQIORZ UHDFKHV LWV SHDN 2Q
WKHUHFHVVLRQVLGHRIWKHLQIORZK\GURJUDSKWKH
VDPH RXWIORZ FDSDFLW\ RI GRZQVWUHDP FDQDO 
PD\ EH PDLQWDLQHG LQ RUGHU WR HYDFXDWH
VWRUDJH DV TXLFNO\ DV SRVVLEOH 7KH RXWIORZ
PD\EHUHGXFHGWRLWVGU\ZHDWKHUYDOXHRQFH
WKHLQIORZKDVUHGXFHGWRLWVEDVHIORZOHYHO



58

'
L
V
F
K
D
U
J
H

,QIORZ
K\GURJUDSK

2XWIORZ
+\GURJUDSK

7LPH


)LJXUH)XQFWLRQRI'HWHQWLRQ%DVLQ




7KH 'HVLJQ &RQVLGHUDWLRQV RI


)ORRG'HWHQWLRQ%DVLQ


,Q WKH SUHOLPLQDU\ VWDJH RI GHVLJQ WKH
GHVLJQHU KDV WR VWXG\ WKH WRSRJUDSK\ VRLOV
ODQG XVH IORZ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV IORRG
IUHTXHQFLHV DQG RWKHU UHOHYDQW VRFLR 
HFRQRPLF IDFWRUV LQ RUGHU WR VHOHFW PRVW
DSSURSULDWH IORRG FRQWURO PHDVXUH IRU D
SDUWLFXODUDUHDRUULYHUEDVLQ,IIORRGGHWHQWLRQ
UHVHUYRLU LV PRVW DSSURSULDWH WKH GHVLJQHU
PXVW JR IRU WKH K\GURORJLFDO GHVLJQ SKDVH
ZKLFK LQYROYHV JHQHUDWLRQ RI LQIORZ
K\GURJUDSKV DQG URXWLQJ WKHP WKURXJK
SURSRVHG UHVHUYRLUV HWF VR DV HYDOXDWH WKH
SHUIRUPDQFH RI WKH HQWLUH GHWHQWLRQ RU
UHWDUGLQJ  EDVLQ &RQWRXU VXUYH\ RI GHWHQWLRQ
EDVLQ LV QHFHVVDU\ LQ WKLV VWHS 2QFH WKH WLPH
ODJEHWZHHQLQIORZDQGRXWIORZSHDNVDQGWKH
GHJUHH RI DWWHQXDWLRQ KDYH EHHQ GHWHUPLQHG
WKH HQJLQHHULQJ GHVLJQ SKDVH FDQ EH
FRPPHQFHG9DULRXVGHFLVLRQVKDVWREHWDNHQ
LQ WKLV VWDJH LQFOXGLQJ WKH W\SH RI SRQG WKH
FKRLFH RI FRQWURO VWUXFWXUHV VL]HV RI LQOHW DQG
RXWOHW FDQDOV DQG DQ\ RWKHU GHYHORSPHQWV
QHFHVVDU\ ZLWKLQ WKH SRRO DQG WHPSRUDU\
GHWHQWLRQDUHD




IDFLOLWLHV IRU VWRUP ZDWHU HYDFXDWLRQ 7KLV


PHWKRG LV QRW PXFK DSSURSULDWH IRU D
GHYHORSLQJFRXQWU\OLNHRXUVGXHWRIROORZLQJ
UHDVRQV


3URWHFWHG DUHDV H[SHULHQFH KHDY\
UDLQIDOO DYHUDJH DQQXDO UDLQIDOO LV
DURXQG  PP  FRQFHQWUDWHG LQ
WZR PRQVRRQDO SHULRGV 7KHUHIRUH
WKH YROXPH RI VXUSOXV ZDWHU WR EH
HYDFXDWHG LV YHU\ KLJK *UDYLW\
GUDLQDJH LV QRW SRVVLEOH VLQFH WKH
DUHDV DUH DW ORZ HOHYDWLRQV
VRPHWLPHV EHORZ 0HDQ 6HD /HYHO
(YDFXDWLRQ VXFK ODUJH YROXPH RI
ZDWHU E\ SXPSLQJ LV H[WUHPHO\
FRVWO\


,QFRPHJHQHUDWHGIURPWKHSURWHFWHG
DUHDV LV UHODWLYHO\ ORZ DQG FRVW RI
RSHUDWLRQ DQG PDLQWHQDQFH LV QRW
MXVWLILDEOH


&RQVWUXFWLRQ RI IORRG EXQGV LV
UHVWULFWHG GXH WR KLJK YDOXH RI
SURSHUWLHV WR EH UHPRYHG  (YHQ WKH
H[LVWLQJ EXQGV LQ VXFK SRSXODWHG
DUHDVKDYHEHHQHQFURDFKHGDVVKRZQ
LQ)LJXUH



)LJXUH   (QFURDFKPHQWV .HODQL )ORRG
%XQGV

&RQVWUXFWLRQ RI GHWHQWLRQ UHVHUYRLUV VHHPV D
VXVWDLQDEOH DQG DIIRUGDEOH VROXWLRQ ZKHQ
FRPSDUHG WR RWKHU IORRG FRQWURO PHDVXUHV
*HQHUDOO\WKHODQGUHTXLUHGLVDYDLODEOHLQWKH
IRUPRILQODQGODNHVDQGPDUVK\ODQGV )LJXUH
 DQG   ZKLFK FDQQRW EH XVHG IRU DQ\ RWKHU
HFRQRPLF SXUSRVH &OHDULQJ GUHGJLQJ DQG
UHPRYDO RI  XQDXWKRUL]HG FRQVWUXFWLRQV PD\
EHUHTXLUHGWRLQFUHDVHWKHGHWHQWLRQFDSDFLWLHV
RI H[LVWLQJ ODNHV DQG DGMDFHQW PDUVK\ ODQGV

,V WKLV $SSURSULDWH IRU 2XU


3UREOHPV


0RVWRIWKHUHFHQWIORRGKD]DUGVZHUHUHSRUWHG
IURPWKHFRDVWDOFLWLHVVXFKDV&RORPER*DOOH
DQG 0DWDUD VLWXDWHG LQ WKH :HW =RQH RI WKH
LVODQG 7KRVH DUHDV DUH KLJKO\ SRSXODWHG DQG
H[SHULHQFHUHODWLYHO\KLJKUDLQIDOOV

3UHYLRXV IORRG FRQWURO ZRUNV LQ WKRVH DUHDV
ZHUH FRQILQHG WR WKH VWUDWHJ\ RI HPEDQNLQJ
DQG FKDQQHOL]DWLRQ ZLWK RU ZLWKRXW SXPSLQJ

59

ENGINEER

(DUWK PRYLQJ RSHUDWLRQV DUH QRUPDOO\


H[SHQVLYH DQG GUHGJLQJ LV HYHQ PRUH
H[SHQVLYH 7KHUHIRUH SUHVHUYLQJ H[LVWLQJ ORZ
ODQGV LV YHU\ LPSRUWDQW (YHQ WKH IXQFWLRQ RI
DEDQGRQHG SDGG\ ODQGV LQ FRQWUROOLQJ IORRGV
LV LQYDOXDEOH 7KHUHIRUH ILOOLQJ SDGG\ ILHOGV
VKRXOGEHDYRLGHGDVIDUDVSRVVLEOH




)LJXUH   .LUDODNHOH 0DUVK DW WKH FLW\ RI
0DWDUD 1LOZDOD%DVLQ 



5HIHUHQFHV



 +DOO0-+RNLQ'/DQG(OOLV-%
'HVLJQRI)ORRG6WRUDJH5HVHUYRLUV
 :LSSOH:'XHO3XUSRVH'HWHQWLRQ
%DVLQV




)LJXUH   0DUVKHV DQG ,QODQG /DNHV JUHHQ


DQGEOXHSDWFKHV LQWKH&LW\RI&RORPER

6HFRQGO\ WKH LPSURYHPHQW DQG UHJXODU
PDLQWHQDQFH RI GUDLQDJH FDQDO V\VWHP LV
H[WUHPHO\ LPSRUWDQW &DQDOV VKRXOG EH
DFFHVVLEOH LQ ERWK VLGHV WR IDFLOLWDWH
PDLQWHQDQFH ZRUNV E\ PDFKLQHU\ &DQDO
UHVHUYDWLRQV VKRXOG EH GHPDUFDWHG DQG
PDLQWDLQHG SURSHUO\ WR DYRLG HQFURDFKPHQWV
)ORRG SODLQV DQG UHVHUYDWLRQV VWLSXODWHG IRU
PDLQULYHUVVKRXOGEHPDLQWDLQHGZLWKRXWDQ\
FRQVWUXFWLRQ REVWUXFWLQJ WKH IORZ GXULQJ
IORRGV


&RQFOXVLRQV


3URYLVLRQ RI GHWHQWLRQ UHVHUYRLUV VHHPV PRVW


DSSOLFDEOH IRU IORRG PLWLJDWLRQ LQ WKH FRDVWDO
FLWLHV RI RXU FRXQWU\ 7KHVH GHWHQWLRQ
UHVHUYRLUV FDQ VHUYH IRU VRPH RWKHU SXUSRVHV
VXFKDVILVKEUHHGLQJQDWXUHSDUNVZDONZD\V
DQG ZDWHU EDVHG UHFUHDWLRQDO DFWLYLWLHV /RZ
ODQGV DYDLODEOH LQ WKH IRUP RI PDUVKHV RU
LQODQG ODNHV FDQ HFRQRPLFDOO\ EH XWLOL]HG IRU
WKLV SXUSRVH :HOO PDLQWDLQHG IORRG UHWDUGLQJ
EDVLQ LV D VXVWDLQDEOH DQG HQYLURQPHQW
IULHQGO\VROXWLRQIRUWKHSUREOHPRIIORRGLQJ





ENGINEER

60

ENGINEER - Vol. XXXXIV, No. 02, pp. [61-72], 2011


The Institution of Engineers, Sri Lanka

7UDIILF&DOPLQJ ,WV$SSOLFDELOLW\LQ6UL/DQND

.6:HHUDVHNHUD


$EVWUDFW 7KLV SDSHU H[DPLQHV WKH FRQFHSW RI WUDIILF FDOPLQJ WRROV DQG PHWKRGV DYDLODEOH IRU WUDIILF
FDOPLQJSURFHVVLWVHIIHFWLYHQHVVLQFRXQWULHVZKLFKWUDIILFFDOPLQJVWUDWHJLHVDUHDGRSWHGDQGORRNV
DWLWVDSSOLFDELOLW\LQ6UL/DQNDHVSHFLDOO\LQ&RORPERDQGLWVVXEXUEV6WXG\REVHUYHVWKHRULJLQRI
WUDIILF FDOPLQJ KRZ GLIIHUHQW WUDIILF FDOPLQJ SROLFLHV DUH SUDFWLFHG LQ VRPH FRXQWULHV WRROV DQG
GHYLFHV XVHG IRU WUDIILF FDOPLQJ KRZ LW FRXOG EH PRGLILHG WR VXLW GLIIHUHQW VLWXDWLRQV DQG LWV
DGRSWDELOLW\LQEXV\ORFDOWRZQVPDLQO\LQ&RORPER

7KLV SDSHU LV VXSSRUWHG E\ D FRPSUHKHQVLYH OLWHUDWXUH VXUYH\ ZKLFK H[DPLQH DQG VXPPDULVH
SUHYLRXV VWXGLHV FRQGXFWHG RQ GLIIHUHQW DVSHFWV RI HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI VSHHG FRQWUROOLQJ WRROV XVHG LQ
WUDIILFFDOPLQJRSHUDWLRQVDQGWKHLPSDFWV ERWKSRVLWLYHDQGQHJDWLYH RQDOOURDGXVHUVDQGQHDUE\
UHVLGHQWV $OWKRXJK WUDIILF FDOPLQJ PD\ EH D QRYHO H[SHULHQFH WR 6UL /DQNDQ URDG HQJLQHHUV LW KDV
EHHQ SUDFWLFHG LQ VRPH FRXQWULHV TXLWH H[WHQVLYHO\ RYHU D FRQVLGHUDEOH SHULRG RI WLPH 7KH H[SHFWHG
RXWFRPH RI WKLV SDSHU LV WR PDNH DQ DZDUHQHVV RI WUDIILF FDOPLQJ FRQFHSW DQG SURFHVV DPRQJ WUDIILF
DQG KLJKZD\ HQJLQHHUV LQ WKH FRXQWU\ DQG HQFRXUDJH WKHP WR SUDFWLFH WUDIILF FDOPLQJ SROLFLHV
ZKHUHYHUDSSOLFDEOHPHDQLQJIXOO\LQ&RORPERDQGLWVEXV\VXEXUEVLQ6UL/DQND

.H\ZRUGV7UDIILF&DOPLQJ/RFDO$UHD7UDIILF0DQDJHPHQW/$70








,QWURGXFWLRQ
,QWURGXFWLRQ


)LJXUH  VKRZ VRPH RI WKH FRPPRQO\ XVHG
WUDIILF FDOPLQJ WRROV XVHG WR VORZ GRZQ PRWRU
YHKLFOHV ZLWKLQ UHVLGHQWLDO DQG ORFDO DUHDV WR
PDNH WKH QHLJKERXUKRRGV VDIHU DQG PRUH
SHRSOHIULHQGO\

$OWKRXJK QXPHURXV GHILQLWLRQV RI WUDIILF
FDOPLQJ DUH IRXQG LQ OLWHUDWXUH DOO WKHVH
GHILQLWLRQV PRVWO\ SOD\ DURXQG ZLWK GLIIHUHQW
ZRUGV EXW EDVLFDOO\ ZKDW WKH\ PHDQ LV WKH
VDPH 7UDIILF FDOPLQJ LV WUDIILF FRQWURO DFWLRQV
 PHDVXUHV WKDW RIIHU WR PLQLPLVH WKH
XQGHVLUDEOH LPSDFW RI PRWRU YHKLFOHV RQ ORFDO
KXPDQ DFWLYLWLHV ,W LV LPSRUWDQW WR PHQWLRQ
WKDW E\ FDOPLQJ WUDIILF WKH DFFHVVLELOLW\ DQG
PRELOLW\ VKRXOG QRW EH VLJQLILFDQWO\ UHGXFH IRU
WKH UHVLGHQWV FRPPHUFLDO FRPPXQLW\ ZRUNHUV
RU YLVLWRUV WR WKH DUHD 7UDIILF FDOPLQJ VKRXOG
QRW EH PLVXQGHUVWRRG DV OHVVHQLQJ RI WUDIILF LQ
DQDUHDEXWLWLVDFRQWUROPHDVXUHWRFDOPGRZQ
WUDIILFE\UHGXFLQJWKHDYHUDJHVSHHGVRIWUDIILF
LPSRVH URDG GLVFLSOLQH DQG LPSURYH WKH VDIHW\
RIDOOURDGXVHUV



7UDIILF FDOPLQJ LV D WHUP ZKLFK LV IUHTXHQWO\
XVHG LQ GLVFXVVLRQV LQ XUEDQ WUDIILF SROLF\ DQG
WUDIILFPDQDJHPHQWVWUDWHJ\GLVFXVVLRQVLQVRPH
GHYHORSHG FRXQWULHV RYHU WKH SDVW FRXSOH RI
GHFDGHV0RUHUHFHQWO\WUDIILFFDOPLQJWHUPKDV
EHHQ XVHG WR GHVFULEH D PXFK ZLGHU FRQWH[W RI
WUDIILF PDQDJHPHQW DQG UHVWUDLQ LQ FLWLHV ZRUOG
ZLGH LQFOXGLQJ FLWLHV DQG WRZQV LQ VRPH
GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV DV ZHOO ,Q VKRUW WKH WHUP
WUDIILFFDOPLQJLQFOXGHDQ\DFWLRQRUSURJUDPPH
WKDWUHGXFHVVWUHHWWUDIILFDQGVORZVGRZQPRWRU
YHKLFOHV ZLWKLQ UHVLGHQWLDO DQG ORFDO DUHDV WR
PDNH WKH QHLJKERXUKRRGV VDIHU DQG PRUH
SHRSOHIULHQGO\ 5XVVHOODQG3KDUDRK 


(QJ 3URI .6:HHUDVHNHUD%6F(QJ 0RUDWXZD 


0(QJ6F 816: 3K' 816: ),( 6UL/DQND &(QJ
,QW3( 6/ 0,( $XVW &3(QJ0,+7 8. 0$6&(
3URIHVVRULQ&LYLO(QJLQHHULQJ'HSDUWPHQWRI&LYLO
(QJLQHHULQJ7KH2SHQ8QLYHUVLW\RI6UL/DQND

)LJXUH6RPH&RPPRQ7UDIILF&DOPLQJ7RROV

 6RXUFHZZZDPHULFDQWUDLOVRUJLUHVRXUFHLPDJHVSWQ\W 

61

ENGINEER



2ULJLQDQG+LVWRU\RI7UDIILF
&DOPLQJ

 (QKDQFH6DIHW\
(QKDQFH VDIHW\ WKURXJK HOLPLQDWLQJ SRWHQWLDO
DFFLGHQW KD]DUGV ,W LV XWPRVW LPSRUWDQW WR
FRQWUROJXLGH YHKLFOH PRYHPHQWV WR SURWHFW
KXPDQ OLIH SUHYHQW LQMXULHV WR DOO URDG XVHUV
DQGDYRLGDQ\SURSHUW\GDPDJH

 6KDUH8UEDQ6SDFHZLWK3HRSOH
:KHQ YDVW H[SDQVHV RI URDG FDUULDJHZD\V DUH
HVWDEOLVKHG DV VSDFH ORVW WR KXPDQ DFWLYLW\
SDUWLFXODUO\ ZKHQ VSDFH LV QRW DGHTXDWHO\
XWLOLVHGE\YHKLFOHVWKHQWKURXJKFRQFHSWRIFR
H[LVWHQFH RUVKDUHGSDWKV JLYHEDFNVRPHURDG
VSDFH WR WKH SHGHVWULDQV DQG F\FOLVWV ZKLOH
HQVXULQJWKHLUVDIHW\

 5HGXFH3ROOXWLRQDQG1RLVH
0LQLPLVH(QYLURQPHQWDO,PSDFWV 
7KH LPSDFWV RQ HQYLURQPHQW WKURXJK YHKLFXODU
HPLVVLRQVVPRNHQRLVHDQGYLEUDWLRQKDVWREH
PLQLPLVHG7KHLPSRUWDQFHRISURWHFWLRQ RIWKH
HQYLURQPHQW LV ZHOO XQGHUVWRRG DOO RYHU WKH
ZRUOG +HQFH WKURXJK WUDIILF FDOPLQJ DFWLRQV
LPSDFWRQHQYLURQPHQWVKRXOGEHPLQLPLVHG

 $HVWKHWLFVDQG$FKLHYLQJ+DUPRQ\


/RRNLQJ LQWR WKH RULJLQ DQG KLVWRU\ RI WUDIILF
FDOPLQJ DV SHU +DVV.ODX   WKH WUDIILF
FDOPLQJWHUPLVURXJKO\DWUDQVODWLRQRI*HUPDQ
ZRUG YHUNHKUVEHUXKLJXQJ ,W LV DQ DPDOJDPDWLRQ
PDGH XS IURP YHUNHKU WUDIILF  DQG EHUXKLJXQJ
FRPIRUW FDOP RU HDVH RI PLQG  $FFRUGLQJ WR
%ULQGOH   WKH ZRUG YHUNHKUVEHUXKLJXQJ ILUVW
DSSHDUHG LQ *HUPDQ WHFKQLFDO OLWHUDWXUH LQ PLG
V WR GHVFULEH VSHHG FRQWURO PHDVXUHV WKDW
ZHUH EHLQJ DSSOLHG WR ORFDO VWUHHWV $W WKH WLPH
WKHUH ZDV D JURZLQJ FRQFHUQ LQ (XURSH WR
LPSURYH WKH OLYHDELOLW\ RI XUEDQ VWUHHWV E\
UHGXFLQJWKHDGYHUVHLPSDFWVRIPRWRUYHKLFOHV

7UDIILF FDOPLQJ HYROYHG LQ (XURSH IURP HDUO\
V LQ GLIIHUHQW FRXQWULHV XQGHU GLIIHUHQW
WHUPLQRORJLHV,Q1HWKHUODQGVWKHZRRQHUIRU
VKDUHG ]RQH FRQFHSW ZDV SUDFWLFHG LQ ROG
HVWDEOLVKHG UHVLGHQWLDO DUHDV ZHOO EHIRUH V
7KH PDLQ REMHFWLYH RI WKH 'XWFK ZRRQHUI
SULQFLSOH ZDV WR GHVLJQ VWUHHWV ZKLFK PDGH
VRPH NLQG RI FRH[LVWHQFH SRVVLEOH EHWZHHQ
SHGHVWULDQ DFWLYLWLHV DQG YHKLFOH XVDJH RQ
UHVLGHQWLDOVWUHHWV +DVV.ODX 

,Q *HUPDQ\ VSHHG OLPLWLQJ SUDFWLFHV VXFK DV
7HPSR    OLPLWLQJ VSHHGV LQ UHVLGHQWLDO
DQG RWKHU VHQVLWLYH DUHDV  ZDV SUDFWLFHG LQ ODWH
V 6FKOHLFKHU-HVWHU   6ZHGHQ DGRSWHG
75$),.3/$1  LQ  /DWHU LQ 
6&$)7JXLGHOLQHVZHUHWULHGLQVRPH(XURSHDQ
FRXQWULHV

,Q WKH PHDQ WLPH 755/ LQ 8. ZDV LQYROYH LQ
GHYHORSLQJ DQG H[SHULPHQWLQJ ZLWK URDG
KXPSV IRU FRQWUROOLQJ VSHHGV LQ UHVLGHQWLDO
URDGV DQG VSHHG EXPSV IRU SDUNLQJ DUHDV
+RGJH  %XOSLWW   7KHVH H[SHULPHQWV
OHGWRWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIIDPRXV:DWWVSURILOH
LQ  :DWWV   'RZQ XQGHU LQ $XVWUDOLD
WKHFRQFHSWVRI/RFDO$UHD7UDIILF0DQDJHPHQW
/$70 VFKHPHVZHUHGHYHORSHGLQFDOPLQJRU
SDFLI\LQJ WUDIILF LQ ORFDO DQG UHVLGHQWLDO DUHDV
$VKWRQ%ULQGOH 





,W LV JHQHUDOO\ DFFHSWHG WKDW PRWRU YHKLFOHV DUH


LQWUXVLYHDQGGRPLQDWLQJHOHPHQWVSDUWLFXODUO\
LQ UHVLGHQWLDO HQYLURQPHQWV +HQFH LW LV
LPSRUWDQW WR KDYH D VDIH FRH[LVWHQFH DQG
KDUPRQ\ EHWZHHQ SHGHVWULDQV YHKLFOHV 
UHVLGHQWV

,I ZH FRQVLGHU D UHDO URDG QHWZRUN ZH KDYH
IROORZLQJ WKUHH GRPLQDQW HOHPHQWV L  DUWHULDO
URDGV LL ORFDOURDGVDQG LLL FROOHFWRUURDGVDV
VKRZQLQ)LJXUH


2EMHFWLYHVDQG/HYHOVRI7UDIILF
&DOPLQJ

L $UWHULDO5RDGV $5 
LL /RFDO5RDGV /5 
LLL &ROOHFWRU5RDGV &5 


7KHREMHFWLYHVRIWUDIILFFDOPLQJFDQEHEDVLFDOO\
FDWHJRULVHG LQ WR IRXU DUHDV HQKDQFH VDIHW\
VSDFH IRU PRYHPHQW SROOXWLRQ UHGXFWLRQ DQG
DHVWKHWLFV7KH\FDQEHVXPPDULVHGDVIROORZV


ENGINEER

EHWZHHQ3HGHVWULDQV9HKLFOHV 5HVLGHQWV




62


)LJXUH5RDG+LHUDUFK\LQD5RDG1HWZRUN


7KH SULQFLSDO IXQFWLRQ RI D FROOHFWRU URDG LV WR
GLVWULEXWHWUDIILFEHWZHHQWKHDUWHULDOURDGVDQG
ORFDOURDGV,WFROOHFWVWUDIILFIURPDFDWFKPHQW
RI ORFDO URDGV DQG WKHQ EUDQFKLQJ RII LW DQG
FRQQHFWV XS WR D ORFDO FURVVLQJ URDG RU DUWHULDO
URDG

/RFDOFURVVLQJURDGVDUHWKRVHURDGVZKLFKIXOILO
D QHHG WR GLUHFWO\ FURVV D ORFDO WUDIILF DUHD
EHFDXVHLQRQHGLPHQVLRQDWOHDVWWKHDUHDLVWRR
ODUJHWREHUHDVRQDEO\FLUFXPQDYLJDWHGE\LQWUD
VXEXUEDQWUDIILF

$V SHU %ULQGOH   WKHUH DUH WKUHH OHYHOV RI
WUDIILFFDOPLQJWKDWFRXOGEHDGRSWHG

/HYHO  7UDIILF &DOPLQJ  $FWLRQV WR UHVWUDLQ
WUDIILF VSHHG DQG OHVVHQ WUDIILF LPSDFWV
DWWKHORFDOOHYHOZKHUHWUDIILFYROXPHV
OHYHOV RI VHUYLFH DQG QHWZRUN FDSDFLW\
DUHQRWDQLVVXH

,Q/HYHOWUDIILFFDOPLQJ DWORFDOOHYHO 
IHZ ORFDO URDGV ZLWK SUREOHPV DUH
VHOHFWHGDQGWUHDWWKHP

/HYHO  7UDIILF &DOPLQJ  $FWLRQV WR UHVWUDLQ
WUDIILF VSHHG DQG OHVVHQ WUDIILF LPSDFWV
DW WKH FRUULGRU LQWHUPHGLDWH  OHYHO
ZKHUH WUDIILF YROXPHV OHYHOV RI VHUYLFH
DQGQHWZRUNFDSDFLW\DUHDQLVVXH

,Q /HYHO  WUDIILF FDOPLQJ DW
LQWHUPHGLDWH OHYHO  VHOHFW D UHVLGHQWLDO
DUHDDQGWUHDWDVDXQLW

/HYHO7UDIILF&DOPLQJ$FWLRQVDWWKHPDFUR
OHYHOWROHVVHQWUDIILFOHYHOVDQGLPSDFWV
FLW\ZLGH

,Q /HYHO  WUDIILF FDOPLQJ DW 0DFUR
OHYHO  VHOHFW D ODUJH DUHD LQFOXGLQJ
DUWHULDO URDGV DQG WUHDW WKH FRPSOHWH
V\VWHP





RUGHU LQ KLJKZD\ XVDJH :KLOH HQIRUFLQJ LV


FRQGXFWHG LW LV DOVR LPSRUWDQW WR WDNH VWHSV WR
UHJXODULVH ERWK PRWRULVWV DQG SHGHVWULDQV
WKURXJKFRUUHFWSROLFLHV

:KLOH D EURDG FRQFHSW RI WUDIILF FDOPLQJ LV
FRYHUHG LQ WKLV SDSHU LW LV LPSRUWDQW WKDW ZH
DGRSW RXU QDWLRQDO VWDQGDUGV GHSHQGLQJ RQ
ORFDO GHPDQGV DQG H[SHFWDWLRQV WR VXLW ORFDO
FRQGLWLRQV

%\WUDIILFFDOPLQJEDVLFDOO\ZKDWVEHLQJFDUULHG
RXWIURPWUDIILFHQJLQHHULQJSRLQWRIYLHZDUHDV
IROORZV

 0DQDJHYHKLFXODUVSHHGVWRGHVLUDEOHOHYHOV
 ,PSURYH VDIHW\ RI ERWK SHGHVWULDQV DQG
GULYHUV
 &KDQJHRIWUDIILFIORZV
 &RQWUROQRLVHOHYHOV
 &RQWURO HQYLURQPHQWDO SROOXWLRQ VPRNH
GXVWKDUPIXOHPLVVLRQV 
 7UDYHOWLPHFKDQJHV LQFUHDVHGHFUHDVH 
 /RFDOUHVLGHQWVSULYDF\
 5RDGJHRPHWU\FKDQJHV
 &RPPXQLW\DWWLWXGHV UHVLGHQWV GULYHUV 
 3DVVHQJHUFRPIRUW





:K\7UDIILF&DOPLQJLQ6UL
/DQND"


,WFDQEHVHHQWKDWRQWRSRIDOOVDIHW\DZDUHQHVV
FDPSDLJQV VSKHUHKHDGHG E\ 6UL /DQND 7UDIILF
3ROLFH ZLWK RWKHU UHOHYDQW URDG DJHQFLHV WKH
URDG IDWDOLWLHV DQG JULHYRXV LQMXULHV LQ 6UL
/DQNDQ URDGV DUH RQ WKH ULVH 7DEOH    %\
ORRNLQJ DW WKH WRWDO DFFLGHQW QXPEHUV LQGLFDWHG
DW WKH ERWWRP URZ RI 7DEOH  RQH PD\ JHW WKH
LPSUHVVLRQWKDWDFFLGHQWVDUHUHGXFLQJRYHUWKH
\HDUV EXW DFFRUGLQJ WR WUDIILF SROLFH WKHVH
QXPEHUV LQGLFDWHG LQ 7DEOH  UHIOHFW PXFK
ORZHUILJXUHVWKDQWKHDFWXDOQXPEHUV7KHORZ
YDOXHV DUH GXH WR URDGVLGH VHWWOHPHQWV DUULYLQJ
E\ DIIHFWHG SDUWLHV ZLWKRXW LQIRUPLQJ SROLFH
ZLWK WKH KHOS RI LQVXUDQFH FRPSDQLHV +HQFH
PDQ\RIWKHVHPLQRUFDWHJRU\DFFLGHQWVDUHQRW
JHWWLQJUHFRUGHGLQSROLFHERRNV%XWWKHJURXQG
UHDOLW\LVWKDW6UL/DQNDQURDGDFFLGHQWVDUHRQ
WKH ULVH  ,Q WKLV UHJDUG WR VRPHZKDW LWV
ZHOFRPLQJ QHZV WKDW 6UL /DQND 7UDIILF 3ROLFH
ZLWK WKH 'HIHQFH 0LQLVWU\ DSSURYDO KDV WDNHQ
VWHSV WR LQVWDOO  URDGVLGH FORVHG FLUFXLW 79
FDPHUDV &&79 DWFUXFLDOORFDWLRQVLQ&RORPER
IRU WUDIILF PRQLWRULQJ SXUSRVHV 7R LPSOHPHQW
WKLVLVODQGZLGHZLOOEHDYHU\FRVWO\DIIDLU


*HQHUDO,QIRUPDWLRQ


,Q WKH SRVWZDU VFHQDULR LW LV VHHQ WKDW 6UL
/DQNDQ WUDIILF SROLFH LV PDNLQJ D GHVSHUDWH
DWWHPSW WR GLVFLSOLQH ORFDO WUDIILF DQG SXW LQWR
ULJKWFRXUVHWKHORFDOURDGXVHUVERWKPRWRULVWV
DQGSHGHVWULDQV,WLVHQFRXUDJLQJWRVHHWKDW6UL
/DQNDQ WUDIILF SROLFH LV ZRUNLQJ KDUG WKURXJK
YDULRXV UHJXODWLQJ VFKHPHV VXFK DV HGXFDWLRQ
FDPSDLJQV LQWHQVLYH URDGVLGH RIIHQGHU
GHWHFWLRQ
H[HUFLVHV
DQG
PRQLWRULQJ
SURJUDPPHV DWWHPSWLQJ WR EULQJ WKH ODZ DQG

63

ENGINEER


7DEOH7KH$QQXDO$FFLGHQW6WDWLVWLFV












)DWDO











*ULHYRXV











1RQJULHYRXV





  

'DPDJHRQO\





  

7RWDO





  


6RXUFH6UL/DQND7UDIILF3ROLFH 


%\REVHUYLQJKLJKOHYHORIGULYHULQGLVFLSOLQHRQ
ORFDOURDGVDQGDOVRSROLFHGHWHFWLRQUHFRUGVRI
GULYHU IDXOWV FRPPRQO\ IRXQG DPRQJ RXU
GULYHUV RYHU ODVW IHZ \HDUV LW FDQ EH VHHQ WKDW
PDMRULW\ RI SROLFH GHWHFWLRQV DUH UHODWHG WR
VSHHGLQJ YLRODWLRQ RI URDG UXOHV DQG XQUXO\
EHKDYLRXU E\ WKUHHZKHHOHU  GULYHUV HWF 7DEOH
  $OO WKHVH KLJK ILJXUHV MXVWLI\ WKH LPSRUWDQFH
DQGXUJHQF\WRFDOPRXUWUDIILFRQURDGV+HQFH
LW VKRZV WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI FDOPLQJ RXU WUDIILF
IRUEHWWHUVDIHW\DQGLPSURYHGURDGVWDQGDUGV


7DEOH3ROLFH'HWHFWLRQVIURPWR


+LJK6SHHGLQJ
8Q5RDG
ZRUWK\
YHKLFOHV
'ULYLQJXQGHU
WKH,QIOXHQFH
RI
$OFRKRO'UXJV
/RDGLQJ
3DVVHQJHUV
DZD\IURP
%XV+DOWV
2IIHQFHV
FRPPLWWHGE\
7KUHH:KHHOHU
'ULYHUV
2IIHQFHV
UHODWHGWR
YLRODWLRQRI
5RDG5XOHV
)DLOLQJWRVWRS
DW3HGHVWULDQ
&URVVLQJ
9LRODWLRQRI
RWKHU5RDG
5XOHV
7RWDO











    














  













    

    




 





    


    


6RXUFH6UL/DQND7UDIILF3ROLFH 


ENGINEER

64

)LQGLQJVRI3UHYLRXV6WXGLHV


$QH[WHQVLYHOLWHUDWXUHVXUYH\ZDVFRQGXFWHGWR
VWXG\ RQ VSHHG UHGXFLQJ WRROV XVHG IRU WUDIILF
FDOPLQJSXUSRVHVLQYDULRXVFRXQWULHVDQGWKHLU
FRQFOXVLRQV DUH VXPPDULVHG EHORZ 3UHYLRXV
VWXGLHVKDYHLGHQWLILHGWZHOYHGLIIHUHQWLPSDFWV
UHVXOWLQJIURPWUDIILFFDOPLQJWRROVDVLQGLFDWHG
LQ VXEVHFWLRQV  WR  )LQGLQJV RI WKHVH
VWXGLHV ZLOO EH YHU\ KHOSIXO LQ GHYHORSLQJ
DSSURSULDWHWUDIILFFDOPLQJVFKHPHVIRUGLIIHUHQW
VLWXDWLRQV


9HKLFOH6SHHGV

1H[W SDUDJUDSK LQGLFDWHV WKH JHQHUDO
FRQFOXVLRQV DUULYHG DV DQ DFFXPXODWLRQ RI
VWXGLHV FRQGXFWHG DQG SXEOLVKHG E\ IROORZLQJ
UHVHDUFK SXEOLFDWLRQV UHJDUGLQJ WKH LPSDFW RQ
YHKLFOH VSHHGV GXH WR WUDIILF FDOPLQJ GHYLFHV
>:DWWV  8.  6XPQHU DQG %DJXOH\ 
8.  -DUYLV  $XVW  $VKWRQ  $XVW 
.DVVHP DQG $O1DVVDUL  6DXGL $UDELD 
'DII DQG 6LJJLQV  $XVW  0HKWD 
$XV  7D\ORU DQG 5XWKHUIRUG  $XV 
*HQQDRXLDQG6PLWK $XV *RUPDQHWDO
 86$ %URDGEHQGDQG6DOPRQ 8. 
%LFNQHOO 8. /LQHV 86$ 7DQDQG
:DUG  $XV  0DFGRQDOG  8. 
:HHUDVHNHUD 6/ @

,WFRXOGEHFRQFOXGHGIURPVWXGLHVOLVWHGDERYH
WKDWVSHHGUHGXFWLRQVE\SK\VLFDOVSHHGFRQWURO
GHYLFHVXVHGLQWUDIILFFDOPLQJVKRZWKDWVSHHGV
QHDUWKHVHGHYLFHVFDQEHFRQWUROOHGE\YDU\LQJ
SDUDPHWHUV VXFK DV WKH W\SH RI GHYLFH WKH
SURILOH RI WKH GHYLFH WKH VSDFLQJ LQ EHWZHHQ
GHYLFHV WKH W\SHV RI YHKLFOHV ULGLQJ RYHU WKH
GHYLFHV HWF $OO RI WKHVH VWXGLHV KDYH
FRQWULEXWHG WR WKH FRPPRQ FRQFOXVLRQ WKDW
SK\VLFDO VSHHG FRQWURO GHYLFHV DUH FDSDEOH RI
HIIHFWLYHO\ UHGXFLQJ WKH DYHUDJH VSHHGV DQG
SHUFHQWLOH VSHHGV QHDU WKHP 7KH VSDFLQJ
EHWZHHQ WKH GHYLFHV ZDV VHHQ DV DQ LPSRUWDQW
FULWHULRQ ,QFUHDVHV LQ WKH VSDFLQJ EHWZHHQ
GHYLFHV UHVXOWHG LQ KLJKHU DYHUDJH VSHHGV DQG
KLJKHUPD[LPXPLQWHUGHYLFHVSHHGV7KHVSHHG
UHGXFWLRQ DW WKH GHYLFHV GHSHQGHG RQ WKH
VHYHULW\ RI IRUFHG FKDQJHV RI WUDMHFWRU\ RI WKH
YHKLFOHV








6DIHW\RI'ULYHUVDQG3HGHVWULDQV

1H[W SDUDJUDSK LQGLFDWHV WKH JHQHUDO
FRQFOXVLRQV DUULYHG DV DQ DFFXPXODWLRQ RI
VWXGLHV FRQGXFWHG DQG SXEOLVKHG E\ IROORZLQJ
UHVHDUFK SXEOLFDWLRQV RQ VDIHW\ RI GULYHV DQG
SHGHVWULDQV >6XPQHU HW DO  8.  6XPQHU
DQG %DJXOH\  8.  -DUYLV  $XV 
0HKWD  $XV  *RUPDQ HW DO  86$ 
3DUNHU  8.  +RGJH  8.  (YDQV
 8.  %XOSLWW  8.  :HHUDVHNHUD
 $XV :HHUDVHNHUD 6/ @

6XSSRUWHG E\ DQ H[WHQVLYH OLWHUDWXUH VXUYH\ RI
EHIRUHDQGDIWHUVWXGLHVLWKDVFOHDUO\VKRZQ
JUHDWHU SHUFHQWDJH UHGXFWLRQV LQ DFFLGHQWV
VRPHWLPHVDVKLJKDVLQURDGVWUHWFKHVZLWK
URDG KXPSV %DVHG RQ REVHUYDWLRQV PDGH RQ
ODUJH QXPEHU RI WUDIILF FDOPLQJ VFKHPHV LW LV
QRZ ZHOO DFFHSWHG WKDW VSHHG FRQWURO GHYLFHV
FRQWULEXWHJUHDWO\WRZDUGVLPSURYLQJWKHVDIHW\
RIERWKSHGHVWULDQVDQGGULYHUV


7UDIILF)ORZ&KDQJHV

1H[W SDUDJUDSK LQGLFDWHV WKH JHQHUDO
FRQFOXVLRQV DUULYHG DV DQ DFFXPXODWLRQ RI
VWXGLHV FRQGXFWHG DQG SXEOLVKHG E\ IROORZLQJ
UHVHDUFK SXEOLFDWLRQV RQ WUDIILF IORZ FKDQJHV
GXH WR WUDIILF FDOPLQJ VFKHPHV >$VKWRQ 
$XV 0F'RQDOGDQG-DUYLV $XV 3DUNHU
 8. 9DQGHQ'RRODQG)LVKHU $XV 
&KXDDQG)LVKHU $XV /LQHV 86$ 
0DFGRQDOG 8. @

$OO RI WKH DERYH VWXGLHV VKRZHG WKDW IURP
EHIRUHDQGDIWHUWUDIILFFRXQWVWUDIILFYROXPHV
ZHUH UHGXFHG RQFH VSHHG FRQWURO GHYLFHV ZHUH
LQVWDOOHG 7KHVH UHGXFWLRQV LQ WUDIILF YROXPHV
ZHUH RIWHQ VLJQLILFDQW DQG GHSHQGHG RQ WKH
GHJUHHRIVSHHGFRQWUROPHDVXUHVDSSOLHG,WLV
HYLGHQW WKDW ZKHQ VSHHG FRQWURO GHYLFHV DUH
XVHG LQ WUDIILF FDOPLQJ VFKHPHV VRPH WUDIILF LV
GLYHUWHG WR DGMDFHQW URXWHV VLQFH WKHVH URXWHV
EHFRPH FRPSDUDWLYHO\ PRUH DWWUDFWLYH IRU
WUDYHO+HQFHZKHQWUDIILFFDOPLQJVFKHPHVDUH
SODQQHG LW LV LPSRUWDQW WR HQVXUH WKDW WKH
SHULSKHUDOURDGVDQGDGMDFHQWPDMRUURDGVKDYH
WKH DELOLW\ WR DFFRPPRGDWH WKLV GLYHUWHG WUDIILF
ZLWKRXWFRQJHVWLRQ


*HRPHWU\

1H[W SDUDJUDSK LQGLFDWHV WKH JHQHUDO
FRQFOXVLRQV DUULYHG DV DQ DFFXPXODWLRQ RI
VWXGLHV FRQGXFWHG DQG SXEOLVKHG E\ IROORZLQJ

UHVHDUFKSXEOLFDWLRQV RQWKHJHRPHWU\ RIWUDIILF


FDOPLQJ WRROV >:DWWV  8.  :DOVK 
86$  -DUYLV  $XV  .DVVHP DQG $O
1DVVDUL  6DXGL $UDELD  +DJDQ 
$XV  7D\ORU DQG 5XWKHUIRUG  $XV 
.MHPWUXS  'HQPDUN  )ZD DQG 7DQ 
6LQJDSRUH 0DFGRQDOG 8. @

7KH HDUOLHVW VWXGLHV RI YDULRXV JHRPHWULFDO
GHVLJQV RI URDG KXPSV ZHUH FRQGXFWHG E\
:DWWV  DQG:DOVK  :DWWVREVHUYHG
WKDW YHU\ VPDOO KXPSV DUH QRW HIIHFWLYH IRU
DOWHULQJ WKH GULYHUV RI DOO W\SHV RI YHKLFOHV ,W
ZDV IRXQG WKDW WKH JUHDWHU WKH KHLJKW RI WKH
KXPS WKH PRUH VHYHUH WKH HIIHFW VKRUW KXPSV
RIJUHDWHUKHLJKWVKRZHYHUZHUHQRWDFFHSWDEOH
RQVDIHW\JURXQGV7KHUHKDVEHHQODUJHQXPEHU
RIH[SHULPHQWVFDUULHGRXWLQGLIIHUHQWFRXQWULHV
UHODWLQJWRWKHXVHRIVSHHGFRQWUROGHYLFHVZLWK
YDU\LQJSURILOHVIRUDFKLHYLQJHIIHFWLYHUHVXOWVDW
ORZHU FRVWV 7D\ORU DQG 5XWKHUIRUG  
VWXGLHG WKH IDPLO\ RI GLDJRQDO VORZ SRLQWV
GHYLFHV XVHG E\ PDQ\ PXQLFLSDOLWLHV IRU VSHHG
FRQWURO RQ ORFDO VWUHHWV 9HKLFOH VSHHG SURILOHV
ZHUHPHDVXUHG


1RLVH

1H[W SDUDJUDSK LQGLFDWHV WKH JHQHUDO
FRQFOXVLRQV DUULYHG DV DQ DFFXPXODWLRQ RI
VWXGLHV FRQGXFWHG DQG SXEOLVKHG E\ IROORZLQJ
UHVHDUFK SXEOLFDWLRQV RQ QRLVH FKDQJHV GXH WR
WUDIILFFDOPLQJWRROV>6XPQHUDQG%DJXOH\
8.  6XPQHU DQG %DJXOH\  8. 
0F'RQDOG DQG -DUYLV  $XV  7D\ORU 
$XV  'HZDU  $XV  0HKWD  $XV 
6PLWK  $XV  *HQQDRXL DQG 6PLWK 
$XV  &KXD DQG )LVKHU  $XV  9DQ (YHU\
DQG+ROPHV $XV @

$ QXPEHU RI EHIRUH DQG DIWHU VWXGLHV
LQGLFDWHGWKDWWKHUHZDVDQRYHUDOOUHGXFWLRQLQ
QRLVHOHYHOVZKHUHWUDIILFFDOPLQJPHDVXUHVKDG
EHHQLPSOHPHQWHGPDLQO\GXHWRWKHUHGXFWLRQV
LQ WUDIILF YROXPHV DQG VSHHGV 6XPQHU DQG
%DJXOH\    ,Q WKHVH VWXGLHV LW ZDV
IRXQG WKDW QHDU PLGEORFN KXPSV DQG UDLVHG
SODWIRUPV WKHUH ZDV DQ LQFUHDVH LQ QRLVH OHYHOV
GXH WR WKH UDWWOLQJ RI JRRGV LQ KHDY\ YHKLFOHV
VXGGHQ EUDNLQJ RI YHKLFOHV DQG WKH FRQVWDQW
DFFHOHUDWLRQDQGGHFHOHUDWLRQRIYHKLFOHV,WZDV
QRWLFHG WKDW WUDIILF QRLVH LV D YHU\ ORFDWLRQ
VSHFLILF LPSDFW DQG WKDW WKH UHVXOWV FDQ
VRPHWLPHV EH FRQIXVLQJ GXH WR IDFWRUV VXFK DV
VKRUW VXUYH\ GXUDWLRQV VXGGHQ IOXFWXDWLRQV LQ
WUDIILFIORZRFFDVLRQDOORXGYHKLFOHVDQGQRLVHV
JHQHUDWHG ORFDOO\ 7KH GXUDWLRQV RI QRLVH

65

ENGINEER


UHFRUGLQJV VKRXOG EH LQFUHDVHG WR REWDLQ PRUH
GHILQLWHFRQFOXVLRQV

&KXD DQG )LVKHU   VWDWHG WKDW D  G% $ 
FKDQJH LQ QRLVH OHYHO LV DFFHSWHG DV EHLQJ
QHFHVVDU\ IRU WKH SRSXODWLRQ DV D ZKROH WR
QRWLFH D GLIIHUHQFH LQ WKH QRLVH +RZHYHU WKH
DYDLODEOH GDWD RQ WUDIILF VSHHG DQG YROXPH
UHGXFWLRQVXJJHVWHGWKDWDQRWLFHDEOHGLIIHUHQFH
RI  G% $  RFFXUUHG LQ VLWXDWLRQV ZKLFK KDG
UHGXFWLRQV RI YROXPH E\  RU VRPHZKDW
OHVVHU UHGXFWLRQV FRXSOHG ZLWK JUHDWHU VSHHG
FKDQJHV 6XPQHU DQG %DJXOH\  
0HKWD   0RUH VWXGLHV RI QRLVH FKDQJHV
DURXQG VSHHG FRQWURO GHYLFHV ZLWK ORQJHU
VXUYH\GXUDWLRQVKDYHEHHQSURSRVHG


&RPPXQLW\$WWLWXGHV

1H[WIHZSDUDJUDSKVLQVHFWLRQLQGLFDWHVWKH
JHQHUDO FRQFOXVLRQV DUULYHG DV DQ DFFXPXODWLRQ
RI VWXGLHV FRQGXFWHG DQG SXEOLVKHG E\
IROORZLQJ UHVHDUFK SXEOLFDWLRQV UHJDUGLQJ
FRPPXQLW\ DWWLWXGHV WRZDUGV WUDIILF FDOPLQJ
VFKHPHVDQGWRROVXVHGIRUWUDIILFFDOPLQJ>'DII
DQG 6LJJLQV  $XV  *HQQDRXL DQG 6PLWK
 $XV  9DQ GHQ 'RRO DQG )LVKHU 
$XV  *RUPDQ HW DO  86$  &KXD DQG
)LVKHU $XV @

&RPPXQLW\ DWWLWXGHV WRZDUGV VSHHGUHGXFLQJ
GHYLFHVKDYHEHHQUHYLHZHGLQWKHVWXGLHVOLVWHG
DERYH 7KHUH VHHPHG WR EH VWURQJ DJUHHPHQW
ZLWK WKH DVVXPSWLRQ WKDW UHVLGHQWLDO VWUHHWV DUH
SULPDULO\ IRU WKH UHVLGHQWV DQG VHFRQGDULO\ IRU
WUDIILF 7KH VWXGLHV DERYH PRVW RI ZKLFK ZHUH
EDVHGRQSXEOLFRSLQLRQVXUYH\VLQWHUYLHZVDQG
KRXVHKROGTXHVWLRQQDLUHVXUYH\VVKRZWKDWWKH
PDMRULW\RIWKHUHVLGHQWVDUHLQIDYRXURIVSHHG
UHGXFLQJ VFKHPHV LQ UHVLGHQWLDO DUHDV 7KHVH
VXUYH\V DOVR VKRZHG WKDW WKH PDMRULW\ RI WKH
UHVLGHQWVDQGGLYHUVZHUH LQIDYRXURISK\VLFDO
VSHHG FRQWURO GHYLFHV VXFK DV URDG KXPSV
UDLVHGSODWIRUPVDQGVORZ SRLQWVEXWWKDWWKHUH
ZDV DOZD\V D JURXS ZKR RSSRVHG WKHP 7KH
LVVXH RI SK\VLFDO VSHHG FRQWURO GHYLFHV DV D
VSHHG FRQWURO PHDVXUH KDV SURYHG WR EH D YHU\
SRODULVLQJ LVVXH HLWKHU SHRSOH OLNHG WKHP RU
GLVOLNHGWKHP

7KHVH VWXGLHV VKRZ WKDW WKH PDMRULW\ RI WKH
SXEOLF DFFHSWHG WKH QRWLRQ WKDW SK\VLFDO VSHHG
FRQWUROGHYLFHVKHOSHGWRUHGXFHRYHUDOOVSHHGV
DQGWUDIILFYROXPHVRQWKHURDGVKRZHYHUWKHUH
ZHUH VRPHZKDW GLIIHUHQW RSLQLRQV RQ WKH
IROORZLQJLVVXHV


ENGINEER

 6DIHW\QHDUWKHVHGHYLFHV
 0LQRU GDPDJH DQG LQFUHDVHG ZHDU DQG
WHDUWRYHKLFOHV
 $SSHDUDQFH RI WKHVH GHYLFHV DQG
FKDQJHVWRVWUHHWVFDSHV
 3HGHVWULDQFURVVLQJGLIILFXOWLHV
 7UDYHOWLPHGLIIHUHQFHV
 5RDGVLGHSDUNLQJ
 (IIHFWVRQQHDUE\SURSHUW\YDOXHV
 $FFHVVIURPGULYHZD\V
 6KDSHVDQGVL]HVRIWKHGHYLFHV


7KH FRPPRQ SXEOLF FRPSODLQWV DERXW KXPSV
DQG UDLVHG SODWIRUPV ZHH UHODWHG WR QRLVH
JHQHUDWLRQ
QHDU
WKHVH
GHYLFHV
DQG
SDVVHQJHUGULYHU GLVFRPIRUW $OO RI WKHVH
VWXGLHV VKRZHG D JHQHUDO DFFHSWDQFH RI WKHVH
GHYLFHV E\ WKH PDMRULW\ RI WKH FRPPXQLW\ LI
SURSHUO\XWLOLVHG


'ULYHUDQG3DVVHQJHU&RPIRUW

1H[WWZRSDUDJUDSKVLQVHFWLRQLQGLFDWHVWKH
JHQHUDO FRQFOXVLRQV DUULYHG DV DQ DFFXPXODWLRQ
RI VWXGLHV FRQGXFWHG DQG SXEOLVKHG E\
IROORZLQJ UHVHDUFK SXEOLFDWLRQV UHJDUGLQJ
GULYHUDQGSDVVHQJHUFRPIRUW>:DWWV 8. 
6XPQHU DQG %DJXOH\  8.  -DUYLV 
$XV  .DVVHP DQG $O1DVVDUL  6DXGL
$UDELD  .MHPWUXS  'HQPDUN  -DUYLV DQG
*LXPPDUUD $XV @

.MHPWUXS   FRPPHQWHG WKDW WKH YHUWLFDO
DFFHOHUDWLRQ WR ZKLFK D SHUVRQ LV VXEMHFWHG LQ
SDVVLQJ RYHU D KXPS GHSHQGV RQ L  WKH
JHRPHWULF GHVLJQ RI WKH KXPS LL  WKH YHUWLFDO
VSHHG LLL  WKH YHKLFOH VXVSHQVLRQ V\VWHP LY 
WKHYHKLFOHW\UHSUHVVXUHDQG Y WKHVRIWQHVVRI
WKHVHDWHWF

-DUYLV   SURGXFHG D VHULHV RI SORWV
LQGLFDWLQJ GULYHUSDVVHQJHU GLVFRPIRUW YHUVXV
YHKLFOH FURVVLQJ VSHHG IRU GLIIHUHQW W\SHV RI
YHKLFOHV DQG IRU GLIIHUHQW SURILOHV RI VSHHG
FRQWURO GHYLFHV ZKLFK VXLWHG $XVWUDOLDQ
FRQGLWLRQV 0DQ\ GLVFRPIRUW OHYHO RI
GULYHUSDVVHQJHU  VWXGLHV KDYH EHHQ IROORZHG
LQRWKHUFRXQWULHVDVZHOO


(IIHFWVRQ'LIIHUHQW7\SHVRI9HKLFOHV

1H[WWZRSDUDJUDSKVLQVHFWLRQLQGLFDWHVWKH
JHQHUDO FRQFOXVLRQV DUULYHG DV DQ DFFXPXODWLRQ
RI VWXGLHV FRQGXFWHG DQG SXEOLVKHG E\
IROORZLQJUHVHDUFKSXEOLFDWLRQVRQWKHHIIHFWVRQ
GLIIHUHQW W\SHV RI YHKLFOHV >:DWWV  8. 

66


-DUYLV  $XV  .MHPWUXS  'HQPDUN 
-DUYLVDQG*LXPPDUUD $XV @

:DWWV   VWXGLHG WKH HIIHFW RI URDG KXPSV
RQGLIIHUHQWW\SHVRIYHKLFOHVDWYDU\LQJFURVVLQJ
VSHHGV E\ JLYLQJ GLIIHUHQW GLVFRPIRUW UDWLQJV
IRU YHKLFOHV ,W FRQFOXGHG WKDW ZLWK UHVSHFW WR
VSHHGV ODUJHU JRRGV YHKLFOHV ZHUH WKH PRVW
DIIHFWHG IRU WKH PDMRULW\ RI WKH GLIIHUHQW KXPS
SURILOHVWKDWZHUHLQYHVWLJDWHG/DWHUWKHRQVLWH
WHVWVFDUULHGE\755/ 6XPQHU %DJXOH\
   VKRZHG ODUJH UHGXFWLRQV RI KHDY\
YHKLFOHV DQG DOVR D VLJQLILFDQW UHGXFWLRQ LQ WKH
QXPEHU RI PRWRU F\FOHV RQ URDGV ZLWK KXPS
LQVWDOODWLRQV6LPLODUUHVXOWVZHUHREVHUYHGIURP
D 'DQLVK VWXG\ .MHPWUXS   ZKLFK
PHDVXUHGWKHHIIHFWRIKXPSV &KXPSVDQG7
KXPSVZLWKYDU\LQJGLPHQVLRQV RQGLIIHUHQW
W\SHV RI YHKLFOHV QRUPDO FDUV EXVHV DQG ORQJ
DUWLFXODWHG YHKLFOHV  7KLV VWXG\ SURYHG WKDW
FDUV SDVV RYHU WKHVH GHYLFHV ZLWK PXFK PRUH
HDVHWKDQORQJHUYHKLFOHV

)URPWKH$55%UHVHDUFKRQGLIIHUHQWSURILOHVRI
UDLVHG SODWIRUPV LW ZDV IRXQG WKDW UDLVHG
SODWIRUPV ZLWK UDPS OHQJWKV RI  PHWHU DQG
KHLJKWVRIPPSURGXFHGDFFHSWDEOHFURVVLQJ
FKDUDFWHULVWLFV IRU EXVHV DW VSHHGV XS WR 
NPK -DUYLV DQG *LXPPDUUD   ,W ZDV
FRQFOXGHGWKDWUDLVHGSODWIRUPVZLWKWKLVSURILOH
KDG D JRRG EDODQFH EHWZHHQ WKH UHTXLUHPHQWV
IRU FRQWURO RI SDVVHQJHU FDU VSHHGV DQG WKH
QHHGIRUEXVRFFXSDQWFRPIRUW ERWKGULYHUDQG
SDVVHQJHUV 


7UDYHO7LPH

1H[WWZRSDUDJUDSKVLQVHFWLRQLQGLFDWHVWKH
JHQHUDO FRQFOXVLRQV DUULYHG DV DQ DFFXPXODWLRQ
RI VWXGLHV FRQGXFWHG DQG SXEOLVKHG E\
IROORZLQJ UHVHDUFK SXEOLFDWLRQV RQ WUDYHO WLPH
>6XPQHU DQG %DJXOH\  8.  6XPQHU DQG
%DJXOH\ 8. 0F'RQDOGDQG-DUYLV
$XV 'DIIDQG6LJJLQV $XV 0HWKD
$XV @

$OORIWKHDERYHVWXGLHVLQGLFDWHGWKDWWKHUHZDV
D GHILQLWH LQFUHDVH LQ WUDYHO WLPH GHSHQGLQJ RQ
WKHOHQJWKRIURDGIRUZKLFKWUDIILFFDOPLQJZDV
GRQHDQGWKHGHJUHHRIPHDVXUHVDSSOLHG755/
VWXGLHV 6XPQHU  %DJXOH\    
VKRZHG FRQVLGHUDEOH LQFUHDVH LQ DYHUDJH WUDYHO
WLPHV LQ VRPH FDVHV DV KLJK DV  DW D
ORFDWLRQZLWKQLQH:DWWVSURILOHKXPSVZLWKLQD
VWUHWFK RI  PHWUHV  ZKHUH WKH VSHHG FRQWURO
GHYLFHVZHUHVHYHUHO\DSSOLHG'DIIDQG6LJJLQV
 REVHUYHGDVPDOOHUSHUFHQWDJHLQDYHUDJH

WUDYHO WLPHV  RQ D  NP URDG VWUHWFK ZLWK


VHYHQKRUL]RQWDOGLVSODFHPHQWVORZSRLQWV

0HKWD   QRWHG WKDW LQ WKH HYDOXDWLRQ RI
VRPHUHVLGHQWLDODUHDWUDIILFFDOPLQJVFKHPHVLQ
$XVWUDOLD DQ DYHUDJH WUDYHO WLPH LQFUHDVH RI
EHWZHHQ  DQG  VHFRQGV FRPSDUHG WR
ZLWKRXW WUDIILF FDOPLQJ WRROV 7KLV ZDV GXH WR
WUDIILF GLYHUVLRQV WR SHULSKHUDOV WKDW UHVXOWLQJ
IURP WKH FRQWURO PHDVXUHV DSSOLHG WR WKH
UHVLGHQWLDODUHD


(PHUJHQF\5HVSRQVH7LPHV

1H[W WKUHH SDUDJUDSKV LQ VHFWLRQ  LQGLFDWHV
WKH JHQHUDO FRQFOXVLRQV DUULYHG DV DQ
DFFXPXODWLRQ RI VWXGLHV FRQGXFWHG DQG
SXEOLVKHGE\IROORZLQJUHVHDUFKSXEOLFDWLRQVRQ
PRYHPHQW RI HPHUJHQF\ YHKLFOHV DQG HIIHFW RQ
WKHLU UHVSRQVH WLPHV GXH WR WUDIILF FDOPLQJ
VFKHPHV>'DIIDQG6LJJLQV $XV *RUPDQ
HW DO  86$  (YDQV  8.  %XOSLWW
 8. @

(YDQV  REVHUYHGWKDWIURPDVWXG\GRQHLQ
8.WKHPRVWZRUU\LQJFULWLFLVPKDGFRPHIURP
DPEXODQFHDQGILUHVHUYLFHVZKLFKKDGREYLRXV
FRQFHUQV DERXW WKH FXPXODWLYH HIIHFW RQ WKHLU
UHVSRQVHWLPHV

,Q FRQWUDULO\ *RUPDQ HW DO   LQ WKHLU
HYDOXDWLRQ VWXG\ RI URDG KXPSV LQ 2PDKD LQ
86 SRLQWHG RXW WKDW IRU HPHUJHQF\ YHKLFOHV WKH
URDG KXPSV ZHUH QRW DQ LVVXH DV ORQJ DV WKH\
ZHUHSODFHGRQFROOHFWRUDQGPDMRUURDGV7KH\
VXJJHVWHGWKDWLIDURDGKXPSLVWREHLQVWDOOHG
RQ VXFK D URDG SROLFH DQG ILUH GHSDUWPHQWV
VKRXOG EH FRQVXOWHG EHIRUH SURFHHGLQJ
+RZHYHU WKH\ FRPPHQWHG WKDW WKH DFWXDO
LQFUHDVH LQ UHVSRQVH WLPH EHFDXVH RI D W\SLFDO
URDGKXPSLVRIWKHRUGHURIDIHZVHFRQGVDQG
DUJXHG WKDW LW LV QRW OLIHWKUHDWHQLQJ LQ PRVW
FDVHV

$OOWKHDERYHVWXGLHVFRPPRQO\FRQFOXGHGWKDW
WKHLQVWDOODWLRQRISK\VLFDOVSHHGFRQWUROGHYLFHV
LQFUHDVHV WKH UHVSRQVH WLPH RI HPHUJHQF\
YHKLFOHVDOWKRXJKWKHUHDUHFRQIOLFWLQJYLHZVRQ
WKHLPSRUWDQFHRIWKLVLQFUHDVH


)XHO&RQVXPSWLRQ

1H[W WZR SDUDJUDSKV LQ VHFWLRQ  LQGLFDWHV
WKH JHQHUDO FRQFOXVLRQV DUULYHG DV DQ
DFFXPXODWLRQ RI VWXGLHV FRQGXFWHG DQG
SXEOLVKHGE\IROORZLQJUHVHDUFKSXEOLFDWLRQVRQ

67

ENGINEER


WKH HIIHFW RQ IXHO FRQVXPSWLRQ GXH WR WUDIILF
FDOPLQJ VFKHPHV >7D\ORU DQG $QGHUVRQ 
$XV 0RVHV 8.86$ =LWRDQG7D\ORU
 $XV @

)URP D VHULHV RI ILHOG H[SHULPHQWV XVLQJ DQ
LQVWUXPHQWHG FDU HTXLSSHG ZLWK $55%V IXHO
WUDYHO WLPH GDWD DFTXLVLWLRQ V\VWHP ZLWK D *36
SRVLWLRQLQJV\VWHPDQGDVSHHGDQGWUDYHOWLPH
PRQLWRULQJ V\VWHP =LWR  7D\ORU  
REVHUYHG WKDW D URDG VWUHWFK ZLWK D VHULHV RI
KXPSV LQFUHDVHG YHKLFOH IXHO FRQVXPSWLRQ
ZKHUHDV WKH LQWURGXFWLRQ RI PLQLURXQGDERXWV
GHFUHDVHG WKH RYHUDOO IXHO FRQVXPSWLRQ 7KHVH
UHVXOWV FRQILUPHG WKH HDUOLHU FODLPV E\ 0RVHV
 WKDWURDGKXPSVDQGXQGXODWLRQVRIURDG
VXUIDFHV LQFUHDVH WKH RYHUDOO IXHO FRQVXPSWLRQ
RIYHKLFOHVVRPHWLPHVE\XSWR

7KHLQFUHDVHVLQIXHOFRQVXPSWLRQZKHQGULYLQJ
RYHU YHUWLFDO GLVSODFHPHQW GHYLFHV DQG VORZ
SRLQWVDUHDWWULEXWHGWRWKHFRQVWDQWFKDQJLQJRI
JHDUV DQG WUDYHO LQ ORZ JHDU QHDU DQG RQ WKH
GHYLFHV

$LU3ROOXWLRQIURP9HKLFOH([KDXVWV

1H[W WZR SDUDJUDSKV LQ VHFWLRQ  LQGLFDWHV
WKH JHQHUDO FRQFOXVLRQV DUULYHG DV DQ
DFFXPXODWLRQ RI VWXGLHV FRQGXFWHG DQG
SXEOLVKHGE\IROORZLQJUHVHDUFKSXEOLFDWLRQVRQ
DLUSROOXWLRQIURPYHKLFOHH[KDXVWVGXHWRWUDIILF
FDOPLQJ VFKHPHV >7D\ORU DQG $QGHUVRQ 
$XV  9DQ (YHU\ DQG +ROPHV  $XV 
%XOSLWW 8. @

9DQ (YHU\  +ROPHV   IURP D UHYLHZ RI
OLWHUDWXUH RQ WKH HQYLURQPHQWDO DQG HQHUJ\
EHQHILWVRI/$70IRXQGVXEVWDQWLDOHYLGHQFHRI
DGHWHULRUDWLRQRIHQYLURQPHQWDOFRQGLWLRQVGXH
WR LQFUHDVHV LQ DLU SROOXWLRQ DV D UHVXOW RI
LQFUHDVHG DFFHOHUDWLRQ DQG EUDNLQJ E\ GULYHUV
QHDU SK\VLFDO VSHHG FRQWURO GHYLFHV 7KH\
VKDUHGWKHYLHZWKDWWKHLPSDFWRQDLUTXDOLW\DV
D UHVXOW RI DQ /$70 VFKHPH LV UHODWHG WR WKH
FKDQJHVLQIXHOFRQVXPSWLRQ,Q/$70VFKHPHV
ZLWK PLGEORFN VSHHG FRQWURO GHYLFHV WKLV LV
QRUPDOO\ D SRVLWLYH FKDQJH DQG WKH SHUFHQWDJH
LQFUHDVH LQ IXHO FRQVXPSWLRQ ZDV IRXQG WR
GHSHQG RQ WKH GHJUHH RI WUDIILF FDOPLQJ
PHDVXUHVDSSOLHG

7D\ORU  $QGHUVRQ   E\ DSSO\LQJ WKH
08/$70 PRGHO WR VRPH 6RXWK $XVWUDOLDQ
/$70 VFKHPHV FDPH XS ZLWK VLPLODU YLHZV
%XOSLWW  E\DQDO\]LQJVRPHWUDIILFFDOPLQJ
VFKHPHVLQWKH8.ZKLFKLQYROYHGURDGKXPSV
DQGUDLVHGSODWIRUPVPDGHVLPLODUREVHUYDWLRQV

ENGINEER

WR9DQ(YHU\DQG+ROPHV  DQGVWDWHGWKDW


YHKLFOH H[KDXVWV LQFUHDVH DLU SROOXWLRQ DV
YHKLFOHV VSHHG XS RU VORZ GRZQ RYHU WKH
REVWDFOHFRXUVH

6XPPDU\

6HFWLRQVDQGRIWKLVSDSHULQYHVWLJDWHVWKH
FRQFHSWRIWUDIILFFDOPLQJLWVRULJLQDQGKLVWRU\
WKH REMHFWLYHV DW GLIIHUHQW OHYHOV RI WUDIILF
FDOPLQJDQGUHDVRQRXWZK\LWVUHTXLUHGLQ6UL
/DQND 7KURXJK WKH VWXGLHV FRQGXFWHG LQ
GLIIHUHQW SDUWV RI WKH ZRUOG OLVWHG LQ VHFWLRQ 
WR  LW ZDV REVHUYHG WKH KLVWRULFDO
EDFNJURXQG WKH HIIHFWV RI WRROV XVHG IRU WUDIILF
FDOPLQJ WKHLU LPSDFW RQ GLIIHUHQW DVSHFWV DQG
DOVR KRZ DW GLIIHUHQW SDUWV RI WKH ZRUOG VSHHG
PDQDJHPHQWLVVXHVLQUHVLGHQWLDOFROOHFWRUDQG
VXEDUWHULDO
URXWHV
ZLWKRXWZLWK
KLJK
SHGHVWULDQLQYROYHPHQWVDUHDGGUHVVHGWKURXJK
WUDIILFFDOPLQJ





,PSOHPHQWDWLRQRI7UDIILF
&DOPLQJ6FKHPHV


$IWHU
VWXG\LQJ
WKH
LPSRUWDQFH
RI
YHKLFOHSHGHVWULDQLQWHUDFWLRQDQGWKHPHDVXUHV
DGRSWHGWRLPSURYHWKLVUHODWLRQVKLSLQGLIIHUHQW
FRXQWULHV LW ZDV REVHUYHG WKDW WKH
LPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIVWULFWVSHHGFRQWUROPHDVXUHV
VXFKDVURDGKXPSVDQGUDLVHGSODWIRUPVLVQRZ
EHFRPLQJ IDPLOLDU WR PDQ\ PXQLFLSDOLWLHV WKDW
DUH WU\LQJ WR UHGXFH WKH VSHHGV LQ UHVLGHQWLDO
VWUHHWV DV ZHOO DV VXEDUWHULDO URDGV ZLWK KLJK
WUDIILF IORZV 6RPH DXWKRULWLHV DUH QRZ QRW
KHVLWDWLQJ WR XVH WKHVH GHYLFHV RQ EXV\ DUWHULDO
URDGVUXQQLQJWKURXJKWRZQFHQWUHV +RSSHU 
&DQQRQ  &UHHG  0HQ]LHV   7UDIILF
FDOPLQJ WRROV VXFK DV UDLVHG WKUHVKROGV UDLVHG
SODWIRUPV FXUYLOLQHDU DOLJQPHQWV DQG WUDIILF
FLUFOHV DUH VXLWDEOH GHYLFHV IRU EXV\ DUWHULDO
URDGV

:KHUH WKH FRQYHQWLRQDO VSHHG UHGXFLQJ
PHDVXUHV ZLWK VOLJKW PRGLILFDWLRQV DUH XVHG LQ
URDGV ZLWK KLJK WUDIILF ZLWK D KLJK GHJUHH RI
YHKLFOHSHGHVWULDQLQWHUDFWLRQLWLVLPSRUWDQWWR
KDYH D WKRURXJK XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI WKH
EHKDYLRXU RI WKHVH GHYLFHV DQG WKHLU LPSDFW RQ
IXQGDPHQWDO FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI WUDIILF 7KLV
OLWHUDWXUH VHDUFK KDV EHHQ GLUHFWHG WRZDUGV
DFKLHYLQJ D FRPSOHWH XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI WKH
H[LVWLQJ NQRZOHGJH RI WKH SHUIRUPDQFH RI
FRPPRQO\XVHGSK\VLFDOVSHHGFRQWUROGHYLFHV
7KH SUHVHQW NQRZOHGJH DERXW WKH SHUIRUPDQFH
RIWKHVHWRROVKDVEHHQDVVHVVHG


68

)URPWKHOLWHUDWXUHVWXG\LWZDVQRWHGWKDWWKHUH
DUH VRPH FRPPRQO\ XVHG WUDIILF FDOPLQJ WRROV
ZKLFK DUH H[WHQVLYHO\ XVHG DOO RYHU WKH ZRUOG
IRU WUDIILF FDOPLQJ RSHUDWLRQV 7KH\ DUH OLVWHG
EHORZ

 (QWU\7KUHVKROGV
 6SHHG+XPSV
 2IIVHW&DUULDJHZD\
 5RXQGDERXW7UDIILF&LUFOH
 5DLVHG7KUHVKROG
 5DLVHG3ODWIRUPV
 &XUYLOLQHDU$OLJQPHQW
 2QH7ZR/DQH6ORZ3RLQWV
 'LDPRQG6ORZ3RLQWV
 ,QWHUVHFWLRQ7UHDWPHQWV
 &XUE([WHQVLRQV
 'LDJRQDO'LYHUVLRQV
 &KLFDQH
 $QJOHG6ORZ3RLQWV
 1HFNLQJ
 7'LYHUVLRQ
 5XPEOH6WULS
 0HGLDQ,VODQG
 :RPEDW&URVVLQJ
 6KDUHG=RQHV
 $SSURSULDWH5RDG6LJQV
 (OHFWURQLF,QIRUPDWLRQ
 &ORVH&LUFXLW&DPHUDV(QIRUFHPHQW
 $SSURSULDWH/DQGVFDSLQJ
 'LIIHUHQW6XUIDFH7UHDWPHQWV
 5RDG&ORVXUHV 'LYHUVLRQV


6RPH RI WKH UHIHUHQFHV LQGLFDWHG LQ WKLV VWXG\
RIIHU FRPSUHKHQVLYH GHWDLOV RI WKH WUDIILF
FDOPLQJ WRROV LQGLFDWHG DERYH ZLWK LPSRUWDQW
GLPHQVLRQVRIWKLVGLIIHUHQWWUDIILFFDOPLQJWRROV
DQG DOVR VXJJHVWLQJ WKH VXLWDEOH ORFDWLRQV IRU
WKHLUHIIHFWLYHLQVWDOODWLRQV

)LJXUH  LQGLFDWHV DQ H[DPSOH RI D VLPSOH
W\SLFDO WUDIILF FDOPLQJ VFKHPH WKDW FRXOG EH
DGRSWHG LQ D UHVLGHQWLDO DUHD E\ XVLQJ VRPH RI
WKH DERYH PHQWLRQHG WUDIILF FDOPLQJ WRROV
6LPLODU W\SH RI WUDIILF FDOPLQJ VFKHPHV
ORFDOVLWHVSHFLILF FRXOGEHGHVLJQHGE\WUDIILF
HQJLQHHUV ZLWK WKH DJUHHPHQW RI DOO UHOHYDQW
VWDNHKROGHUV









)LJXUH7\SLFDO7UDIILF&DOPLQJ6FKHPH




$SSOLFDELOLW\LQ6UL/DQND


7KURXJK WKLV VWXG\ LW ZDV DWWHPSWHG WR
GHPRQVWUDWH VXFFHVVIXO DSSOLFDELOLW\ RI WUDIILF
FDOPLQJ IRU D VDPSOH RI &RORPER UHVLGHQWLDO
URDGV E\ VWXG\LQJ D QHWZRUN RI URDGV DURXQG
+DYHORFN 7RZQ DQG 7KLPELULJDV\D\D LQ
&RORPER

)LJXUHLQGLFDWHVWKHORFDWLRQVRIWUDIILFFDOPLQJ
WRROVWKDWDUHSURSRVHGDQGEHORZLQGLFDWHVWKH
OLVWRIWRROVWKDWFRXOGEHLQVWDOOHGWRLPSOHPHQW
WKHSURSRVHG&RORPERWUDIILFFDOPLQJ]RQH

$5RXQGDERXW7UDIILF&LUFOH
%&KLFDQH
&5RXQGDERXW7UDIILF&LUFOH
'(5DLVHG3ODWIRUPV
)(QWU\7KUHVKROG
*5RXQGDERXW7UDIILF&LUFOH
+,5DLVHG3ODWIRUPV
-5DLVHG7KUHVKROG
.5RXQGDERXW7UDIILF&LUFOH
/7UDIILF6LJQDOV
05RXQGDERXW7UDIILF&LUFOH
17UDIILF6LJQDOV
26SHHG+XPSV

69

ENGINEER




D

>

<

K





:
E




/






,
'




&


)LJXUH3URSRVHG7UDIILF&DOPLQJ6FKHPH




&RQFOXVLRQV


,WZDVREVHUYHGIURPVLWHLQYHVWLJDWLRQVWKDWWKH
SURSRVHG 7UDIILF FDOPLQJ VFKHPH DW +DYHORFN
7RZQDQG7KLPELULJDV\D\DLQ&RORPERFRXOG
EH LPSOHPHQWHG ZLWK HDVH VLQFH URDG ZLGWKV
DUHDGHTXDWHIRUSURSRVHGWUDIILFFDOPLQJWRROV
%XWWKLVPD\QRWWKHVLWXDWLRQHYHU\ZKHUH

:KHQ WUDIILF FDOPLQJ VFKHPHV DUH WR EH
LPSOHPHQWHG XQGHU 6UL /DQNDQ FRQWH[W
IROORZLQJDUHVRPHRIWKHGLIILFXOWLHVWKDWFRXOG
EHDQWLFLSDWHG

 6LQFH WKH ORFDO URDG XVHUV DUH QRW
DFFXVWRPHG WR WUDIILF FDOPLQJ VFKHPHV D
SURFHVVRIHGXFDWLRQPD\EHQHFHVVDU\

 $YDLODEOHFDUULDJHZD\ZLGWKVRIRXUURDGV
PD\EHQRWVXIILFLHQWIRUVRPHRIWKHWUDIILF
FDOPLQJ WRRO WR EH LQVWDOOHG DW VRPH
ORFDWLRQV  7KHUHIRUH VRPH DFFHSWHG WRROV
XVHG HOVHZKHUH PD\ QRW EH VXLWDEOH IRU
ORFDOFRQGLWLRQV

 5HVHDUFK DQG IXUWKHU VWXGLHV PD\ EH
UHTXLUHG LQ VXFK FDVHV 5HVHDUFK RQ VSDFH
XWLOLVHG FRVW RI VWUXFWXUHV DQG URDG XVHU
UHVSRQVHV FRXOG EH FRQGXFWHG WR VXLW ORFDO
FRQGLWLRQV

ENGINEER

8QOLNH LQ VRPHVLWXDWLRQV ZKHUHORFDODUHD


WUDIILF FDOPLQJ VFKHPHV KDYH EHHQ
VXFFHVVIXOO\ LPSOHPHQWHG LQ VRPH
GHYHORSHG FRXQWULHV LQ 6UL /DQNDQ FRQWHVW
VLQFHWKHDYDLODEOHURDGZLGWKVDUHQDUURZ
VROXWLRQV WKURXJK LQWURGXFLQJ FXUYLOLQHDU
DOLJQPHQW RU FDUULDJHZD\ QDUURZLQJ ZLOO
QRWEHDQDSSURSULDWHVROXWLRQ
7KH KLJK FRVWV LQYROYHG LQ VRPH
LQVWDOODWLRQV PD\ FUHDWH GLIILFXOWLHV WR WKH
UHOHYDQWORFDOURDGDJHQFLHV
,IKHDY\WUDIILFGLYHUVLRQVRFFXURQWRORFDO
RUUHVLGHQWLDOURDGVUHVLGHQWVPD\DJLWDWH
5RDG DXWKRULWLHV PD\ KDYH WR IDFH
GHPDQGVEURXJKWWKURXJKSUHVVXUHJURXSV
ZLWK YHVWHG LQWHUHVWV  SROLWLFDO
LQWHUIHUHQFHVWKDWFDQWDNHSODFH


,W LV LPSRUWDQW WR UHPHPEHU WKDW WKHUH LV QR
LGHDO VROXWLRQ RU W\SH SODQ IRU DQ\ WUDIILF
FDOPLQJ VFKHPH EXW HYHU\ VFKHPH LV GLIIHUHQW
IURPRQHDQRWKHUDQGWKH\DUHVLWHVSHFLILFDQG
DOVR VKRXOG EH DFFHSWDEOH WR WKH VWDNH KROGHUV
ZKRDUHWKHILQDOEHQHILFLDULHV


5HIHUHQFHV

















70

$VKWRQ 1 5 $FKLHYLQJ /RZHU 6SHHGV LQ


5HVLGHQWLDO 6WUHHWV )LUVW 1DWLRQDO &RQIHUHQFH RQ
/RFDO *RYHUQPHQW (QJLQHHULQJ$GHODLGH $XJXVW

%LFNQHOO'7UDIILF&DOPLQJ3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH
,QVWLWXWLRQ RI &LYLO (QJLQHHUV 9RO  ,VVXH 
0DUFK
%ULQGOH 5 ( 7UDIILF &DOPLQJ LQ $XVWUDOLD $
'HILQLWLRQ DQG &RPPHQWDU\ -RXUQDO RI WKH
$XVWUDOLDQ 5RDG 5HVHDUFK %RDUG 9RO  1R 
-XQHSS
%URDGEHQG . DQG 6DOPRQ $ 0 $Q
([SHULPHQW ZLWK 5RDG +XPSV -RXUQDO RI
,QVWLWXWLRQ RI +LJKZD\V DQG 7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ 9RO
1R1RYHPEHU
%XOSLWW 0 7UDIILF &DOPLQJ  +DYH ZH *LYHQ
HYHU\RQH WKH +XPS RU ,V LW MXVW D /RDG RI
&KLFDQHU\"-RXUQDORIWKH,QVWLWXWLRQRI+LJKZD\V
DQG 7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ 9RO  1R  'HFHPEHU


&KXD & 6 DQG )LVKHU $ - 3HUIRUPDQFH
0HDVXUHPHQWV RI /RFDO $UHD 7UDIILF
0DQDJHPHQW $ &DVH 6WXG\ -RXUQDO RI WKH
$XVWUDOLDQ 5RDG 5HVHDUFK %RDUG 9RO  1R 
-XQH











































&UHHG&' 0HQ]LHV%7UDIILF&DOPLQJRQ
7UXQN5RDGVLQ(DVW&DPEULGJHVKLUH-RXUQDORI
WKH ,QVWLWXWLRQ RI +LJKZD\V DQG 7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ
(DVW0LGODQGV6SHFLDO,VVXH6HSWHPEHU




'DII05DQG6LJJLQV,'.2Q5RDG7ULDOV
RI6RPH1HZ7\SHVRI6ORZ3RLQWV3URFHHGLQJV
RIWK$XVWUDOLDQ5RDG5HVHDUFK%RDUG&RQIHUHQFH
9RO3W




'HZDU : 7KH (DVW 5RVHYLOOH ([SHULPHQW


6HSWHPEHU0DUFK3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH
UG$,730)RUXP6\GQH\




(YDQV'7UDIILF&DOPLQJ7KH)LUVW)LYH<HDUV
DQG WKH 2[IRUGVKLUH ([SHULHQFH 3URFHHGLQJV RI
WKH ,QVWLWXWLRQ RI &LYLO (QJLQHHUV  0XQLFLSDO
(QJLQHHU9RO,VVXH0DUFK




)ZD 7 ) DQG 7DQ / 6 *HRPHWULF


&KDUDFWHUL]DWLRQ RI 5RDG +XPSV IRU 6SHHG
&RQWURO 'HVLJQ -RXUQDO RI 7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ
(QJLQHHULQJ9RO1R-XO\$XJXVW




*HQQDRXL)5DQG6PLWK)$(IIHFWLYHQHVV
RI/$70'HYLFHVWK1DWLRQDO/RFDO*RYHUQPHQW
(QJLQHHULQJ &RQIHUHQFH 3HUWK  $XJXVW





*RUPDQ010RXVVDYL0DQG0F&R\37
(YDOXDWLRQRI6SHHG+XPS3URJUDPLQWKH&LW\
RI2PDKD,7(-RXUQDO,QVWLWXWHRI7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ
(QJLQHHUV9RO1R-XQH




+DJDQ : % 3K\VLFDO 'HVLJQ *XLGHOLQHV IRU


8VH LQ 5HVLGHQWLDO 6WUHHW 0DQDJHPHQW 7KLUG
1DWLRQDO/RFDO*RYHUQPHQW(QJLQHHULQJ&RQIHUHQFH
0HOERXUQH$XJXVW




+DVV.ODX & 7KH 3HGHVWULDQ &LW\ 7UDIILF


%HOKDYDQ3UHVV/RQGRQ
+RGJH$5$5HYLHZRIWKHPLOHK6SHHG
=RQHV7UDIILF(QJLQHHULQJDQG&RQWURO9RO
1R2FWREHU




+RSSHU . DQG  &DQQRQ 5 7UDIILF &DOPLQJ


+HUWIRUGVKLUHV7RZQ&HQWUHV7KH-RXUQDORIWKH
,QVWLWXWLRQ RI +LJKZD\V DQG 7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ 9RO
1R2FWREHU




-DUYLV - 5 $ 6XUYH\ RI 7UDIILF 6SHHG &RQWURO


'HYLFHV 6SHHG +XPSV  IRXQG LQ DQG DURXQG
0HOERXUQH $XVWUDOLDQ 5RDG 5HVHDUFK %RDUG
,QWHUQDO5HSRUW$,5




-DUYLV - 5 7KH 2IIURDG 7HVWLQJ RI 5RDG


+XPSV IRU 8VH 8QGHU $XVWUDOLDQ &RQGLWLRQV
3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH WK $XVWUDOLDQ 5RDG 5HVHDUFK
%RDUG&RQIHUHQFH9RO3W




-DUYLV-5DQG*LXPPDUUD*+XPSVIRU8VH
RQ%XV5RXWHV5RDGDQG7UDQVSRUW5HVHDUFK9RO
1R'HFHPEHU

71

.DVVHP ( DQG $O1DVVDU < '\QDPLF


&RQVLGHUDWLRQV RI 6SHHG &RQWURO +XPSV
7UDQVSRUW5HVHDUFK9RO%1R$XJXVW
.MHPWUXS . 6SHHG 5HGXFLQJ 0HDVXUHV
3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH$XVWUDOLDQ5RDG5HVHDUFK%RDUG
9RO3WV
/LQHV & - 5RDG +XPSV IRU WKH &RQWURO RI
9HKLFOH 6SHHGV 7UDIILF (QJLQHHULQJ  &RQWURO
-DQXDU\
0DFGRQDOG * 4XDQWLI\LQJ 9HKLFXODU XVHU
%HKDYLRXU 3DSHU SUHVHQWHG DW WKH WK :RUOG
&RQIHUHQFH RQ 7UDQVSRUW 5HVHDUFK :&75 
6\GQH\
0F'RQDOG 3 ( DQG -DUYLV - 5 7KH XVH RI
5RDG+XPSVRQ5HVLGHQWLDO6WUHHWVLQWKH6KLUH
RI &RULR $55% ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 5HSRUW $,5 

0HKWD$/RFDO$UHD7UDIILF0DQDJHPHQW/HVVRQV
WR GDWH 7UDIILF $XWKRULW\ RI 16: 1RYHPEHU

0RVHV3-/RFDO$UHD7UDIILF0DQDJHPHQWLQ
(XURSH DQG 1RUWK $PHULFD WK 1DWLRQDO /RFDO
*RYHUQPHQW (QJLQHHULQJ &RQIHUHQFH 6\GQH\
6HSWHPEHU
3DUNHU 5 $ 5RDG +XPSV 'R 7KH\ 5HDOO\
5HSUHVHQW*RRG9DOXHIRU0RQH\" 3URFHHGLQJV
RI (XURSHDQ 7UDQVSRUW DQG 3ODQQLQJ WK 6XPPHU
$QQXDO 0HHWLQJ  6HSWHPEHU 375&
(GXFDWLRQDQG5HVHDUFK6HUYLFHV/WG
5XVVHOO-DQG3KDUDRK76SHHG0DQDJHPHQW
DQGWKH5ROHRI7UDIILF&DOPLQJLQ5RDG6DIHW\
5HVHDUFK 3DSHU 1R  'HSDUWPHQW RI 7RZQ DQG
&RXQWU\ 3ODQQLQJ +HULRW:DWW 8QLYHUVLW\
(GLQEXUJK
6FKOHLFKHU-HVWHU ) 7HPSR  LQ 7RZQV 
5HVXOWVRID*HUPDQ([SHULPHQW3URFHHGLQJVRI
(XURSHDQ 7UDQVSRUW DQG 3ODQQLQJ WK 6XPPHU
$QQXDO 0HHWLQJ  6HSWHPEHU 375&
(GXFDWLRQDQG5HVHDUFK6HUYLFHV/WG
6PLWK ( $ 7UDIILF 1RLVH DQG /$70
$XVWUDOLDQ $FRXVWLFDO 6RFLHW\  
&RQIHUHQFH
6XPQHU 5 DQG %DJXOH\ & 6SHHG &RQWURO
+XPSV LQ 1RUZLFK DQG +DULQJH\ 755/
6XSSOHPHQWDU\ 5HSRUW 65  7UDQVSRUW
5HVHDUFK/DERUDWRU\&URZWKRUQH
6XPQHU 5 %XUWRQ - DQG %DJXOH\ & 6SHHG
&RQWURO +XPSV LQ &XGGHVGRQ :D\ &RZOH\
2[IRUG 755/ 6XSSOHPHQWDU\ 5HSRUW 65 
7UDQVSRUW 5HVHDUFK /DERUDWRU\ &URZWKRUQH



ENGINEER





































6XPQHU 5 DQG %DJXOH\ & 6SHHG &RQWURO


+XPSV LQ .HQVLQJWRQ DQG *ODVJRZ 755/
6XSSOHPHQWDU\ 5HSRUW 65  7UDQVSRUW
5HVHDUFK/DERUDWRU\&URZWKRUQH





7DQ+:DQG:DUG%9HKLFOHVWKURXJK

%HQGV 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH $XVWUDOLDQ 5RDG
5HVHDUFK%RDUG9RO3W
7D\ORU 0 $ 3 'HVLJQ $LGV IRU /RFDO $UHD
7UDIILF 0DQDJHPHQW QG 1DWLRQDO &RQIHUHQFH RQ
/RFDO *RYHUQPHQW (QJLQHHULQJ %ULVEDQH 
6HSWHPEHU
7D\ORU 0 $ 3 DQG $QGHUVRQ 0 0RGHOLQJ
3ROOXWLRQ DQG (QHUJ\ 8VH LQ 8UEDQ 5RDG
1HWZRUNV 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH $XVWUDOLDQ 5RDG
5HVHDUFK%RDUG9RO3WV
7D\ORU 0 $ 3 DQG 5XWKHUIRUG / 0 6SHHG
3URILOHV DW 6ORZ 3RLQWV RQ 5HVLGHQWLDO 6WUHHWV
3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH$XVWUDOLDQ5RDG5HVHDUFK%RDUG
9RO3WV
9DQ 'HQ 'RRO ' ) DQG )LVKHU $ - /$70
'HVLJQ2SWLPLVDWLRQ&DQ:H3OHDVH(YHU\RQH"
WK 1DWLRQDO /RFDO *RYHUQPHQW (QJLQHHULQJ
&RQIHUHQFH6\GQH\6HSWHPEHU
9DQ (YHU\ % DQG +ROPHV 0 /RFDO $UHD
7UDIILF 0DQDJHPHQW (IIHFWV RQ WKH
(QYLURQPHQW
(QJLQHHULQJ
DQG
WKH
(QYLURQPHQW /RFDO *RYHUQPHQW (QJLQHHULQJ
&RQIHUHQFH $GHODLGH  0DUFK 
'HSDUWPHQWRI7UDQVSRUW$GHODLGH
:DOVK / % $ 6WXG\ RI 6SHHG %XPSV
7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ'LYLVLRQ'HSWRI3XEOLF:RUNV
&LW\RI6DQ-RVH&DOLIRUQLD
:DWWV * 5 5RDG +XPSV IRU WKH &RQWURO RI
9HKLFOH 6SHHGV 7UDQVSRUW DQG 5RDG 5HVHDUFK
/DERUDWRU\755/8.
:HHUDVHNHUD . 6 1HJDWLYH (IIHFWV RI 0LG
EORFN 6SHHG &RQWURO 'HYLFHV DQG WKHLU
,PSRUWDQFH LQ WKH 2YHUDOO ,PSDFW RI 7UDIILF
&DOPLQJ RQ WKH (QYLURQPHQW 7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ
5HVHDUFK DQ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO 3DUW '
7UDQVSRUW DQG (QYLURQPHQW 9RO ' 1R 
SS(OVHYLHU6FLHQFH/WG86$
:HHUDVHNHUD . 6 6RPH 'LVDGYDQWDJHV RI
6PDOO 5RXQGDERXWV RU 7UDIILF 5RWDULHV
3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO &RQIHUHQFH RQ
(QYLURQPHQWDO&KDOOHQJHVIRUWKH1HZ0LOOHQQLXP
8QLYHUVLW\ RI -DPLD 0LOLD ,VODPLD 1HZ 'HOKL
,QGLD1RYHPEHU
:HHUDVHNHUD . 6 $FKLHYLQJ ORZHU VSHHGV LQ
WKH &RORPER 5HJLRQDO &HQWUH 286/ LQWHUQDO
URDGV 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH $QQXDO $FDGHPLF
6HVVLRQV  RI WKH 2SHQ 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 6UL /DQND
WK WK2FWREHU

ENGINEER

72

=LWR5DQG7D\ORU0$36SHHG3URILOHVDQG
9HKLFOH )XHO &RQVXPSWLRQ DW /$70 'HYLFHV
3URFHHGLQJVRI5RDGV&RQIHUHQFH3W
ZZZDPHULFDQWUDLOVRUJLUHVRXUFHLPDJHVSWQ\W

ENGINEER - Vol. XXXXIV, No. 02, pp. [73-81], 2011


The Institution of Engineers, Sri Lanka

$GMXGLFDWLRQLQ&RQVWUXFWLRQ&RQWUDFWV
$5DQDVLQJKHDQG-&.RUDOH


$EVWUDFW $GMXGLFDWLRQ LV D IRUP RI DOWHUQDWH GLVSXWH UHVROXWLRQ PHWKRG XVHG ZLGHO\ LQ WKH
FRQVWUXFWLRQLQGXVWU\7KLVSURFHVVLVFDUULHGRXWE\DQLQGHSHQGHQWSHUVRQVHOHFWHGE\WKHSDUWLHVLQ
DFRQWUDFW

7KH$GMXGLFDWRUKDVWRFDUU\RXWDIDLUO\GHWDLOHGVWXG\RIWKHGLVSXWHUHIHUUHGWRKLPDQGVXFKZRUN
LQFOXGHV LQYHVWLJDWLRQ LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI WKH GLVSXWH OHJDO DQG FRQWUDFWXDO LVVXHV  7KH SDUWLHV WR WKH
GLVSXWH DUH IUHH WR PDNH WKHLU RZQ SUHVHQWDWLRQV LQ WKH IRUP RI GRFXPHQWDU\ DQG YHUEDO HYLGHQFH
SKRWRJUDSKVUHSRUWVHWF7KHGXUDWLRQRIDGMXGLFDWLRQLVOLPLWHGWRWKHQXPEHURIGD\VLQWKHFRQWUDFW
DJUHHPHQWWKH\KDYHHQWHUHGLQWR7KH$GMXGLFDWRUDOVRPLJKWKDYHWRFDUU\RXWVLWHYLVLWVPHHWLQJV
HWFWRREWDLQIXUWKHUFODULILFDWLRQZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKHGLVSXWHGPDWWHUV

,W LV DOVR HTXDOO\ LPSRUWDQW WKDW WKH SULQFLSOHV RI QDWXUDO MXVWLFH KDYH WR EH IROORZHG E\ WKH
$GMXGLFDWRU  *HQHUDOO\ LQ DGMXGLFDWLRQ QR OHJDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV DUH PDGH E\ WKH SDUWLHV DQG WKH
GHFLVLRQLVPDGHE\WKH$GMXGLFDWRUPRVWO\IURPWKHIDFWXDOLVVXHVUDLVHGE\WKHSDUWLHV7KHGHFLVLRQ
RIWKH$GMXGLFDWRUKDVWREHLPSOHPHQWHGIRUWKZLWKDQGWKHGLVVDWLVILHGSDUW\LVIUHHWRFKDOOHQJHWKH
GHFLVLRQRIWKH$GMXGLFDWRULQDQRWKHUWULEXQDOGHSHQGLQJRQWKHDJUHHGWHUPV


.H\ZRUGV $GMXGLFDWLRQ $UELWUDWLRQ &RQGLWLRQV RI &RQWUDFW ),',& ,&7$' 1HXWUDO %LDV
5HSUHVHQWDWLRQ


 ,QWURGXFWLRQ

 &RQIOLFWV 'LVSXWHV  $OWHUQDWH


'LVSXWH5HVROXWLRQ


$GMXGLFDWLRQ LV DQ DOWHUQDWH GLVSXWH UHVROXWLRQ
SURFHVV ZKHUHLQGLVSXWDQWVUHIHUDGLVSXWHWRD
QHXWUDO DQG LPSDUWLDO WKLUG SDUW\ LGHQWLILHG DV
$GMXGLFDWRUE\PXWXDODJUHHPHQWWRGHFLGHRQ
WKHPDWWHUVLQGLVSXWHDQGGHFODUHDQDZDUGLH
GHFLVLRQZLWKLQDSUHGHWHUPLQHGWLPHIUDPHRU
VXFK H[WHQGHG WLPH DV DJUHHG EHWZHHQ WKH
SDUWLHVRQLQTXLU\RIGLVSXWHGIDFWVDQGODZRQ
DQLQTXLVLWRULDOPDQQHU

0RVW FRPPHUFLDO GLVSXWHV FDQ EH UHIHUUHG WR
DGMXGLFDWLRQ

,QWKHFDVHRIFRQVWUXFWLRQGLVSXWHVLQ6UL/DQND
WKDWDUHQRWUHVROYHGE\QHJRWLDWLRQ(QJLQHHUV
GHFLVLRQ RU RWKHU PHDQV PD\ LQHYLWDEO\ UHDFK
WKH VWDJH RI DGMXGLFDWLRQ SULRU WR DUELWUDWLRQ RU
OLWLJDWLRQDVWKHFDVHPD\EHDVSURYLGHGLQWKH
FRQWUDFW

$GMXGLFDWLRQKDVEHFRPHDQH[WUHPHO\SRSXODU
FRQFHSW LQ FRQVWUXFWLRQ GLVSXWH UHVROXWLRQ  $
GLVSXWH PD\ EH  DGMXGLFDWHG RQDGMXGLFDWHG
XSRQDGMXGLFDWHGEHWZHHQ$ %,QVRIDUDV
GLVSXWH UHVROXWLRQ LV FRQFHUQHG $GMXGLFDWLRQ
HQFRPSDVVHV DQRWKHU IRUP RI DOWHUQDWLYH
GLVSXWHUHVROXWLRQSURFHVV




,W LV ZRUWKZKLOH WR FRQVLGHU ZKDW LV PHDQW E\
$OWHUQDWLYH 'LVSXWH 5HVROXWLRQ $'5  $'5
FDQ EH GHILQHG DV WKRVH SURFHGXUHV RU
PHWKRGRORJLHV RI UHVROYLQJ FRQIOLFWV WKDW DUH
DOWHUQDWLYH WR OLWLJDWLRQ DQG WKH OLNH $'5
HQFRPSDVVHV D P\ULDG RI FRQIOLFW UHVROXWLRQ
DSSURDFKHV UDQJLQJ IURP QHJRWLDWLRQ WR
DUELWUDWLRQ ZKLFK LQFOXGHV IDFLOLWDWLRQ DQG
PHGLDWLRQDVZHOO>@$'5LVDOVRGHILQHGDVWKH
GLVSXWHUHVROXWLRQSURFHVVZKLFKHQFRXUDJHVRU
IDFLOLWDWHV WKH GLVSXWDQWV WR UHDFK D VROXWLRQ WR
WKHLU GLVSXWHV KDYLQJ DSSRLQWHG WKHLU RZQ
MXGJHV  )XUWKHUPRUH $'5 DOVR LQFOXGHV
FRQFLOLDWLRQ PHGLDWLRQ DQG PLQLWULDOV>@
$'5 LV JURZLQJ LQWR D YDULHW\ RI DSSOLFDWLRQV
RQEXVLQHVVFRQWUDFWVLQFOXGLQJEXW QRWOLPLWHG
WRFLYLOHQJLQHHULQJDQGHPSOR\PHQW

(QJ$5DQDVLQJKH%6F(QJ +RQV 0(QJ07HFK
3*'&(QJ,(QJ3($,6WUXFW(),( 6UL/DQND 0,(
$XVW 0,&($WWRUQH\DW/DZ
3UHVHQWO\ZRUNLQJDVD&RQVXOWDQW$GMXGLFDWRUDQG
$UELWUDWRU9LVLWLQJ/HFWXUHUDW8QLYHUVLW\RI0RUDWXZD
8QLYHUVLW\RI3HUDGHQL\D,&/3$UELWUDWLRQ&HQWUH
-&.RUDOH%6F06F)&0$$&$
&RQVXOWDQWLQ&RQWUDFW0DQDJHPHQWDQG$GPLQLVWUDWLRQ
&KDUWHUHG$FFRXQWDQW&KDUWHUHG0DQDJHPHQW$FFRXQWDQW
9LVLWLQJ/HFWXUHURQ&RQIOLFW0DQDJHPHQW8YD:HOODVVD

8QLYHUVLW\

73

ENGINEER

 $GMXGLFDWLRQLQ&RQVWUXFWLRQ


,Q WKH 6UL /DQNDQ FRQWH[W $'5 LV PDNLQJ LWV


PDUN LQ WKH EXVLQHVV RI ILQDQFH FRQVWUXFWLRQ
VKLSSLQJ DQG RWKHU WUDGHV RWKHU WKDQ
HPSOR\PHQW GLVSXWHV  ,Q WKH ILHOG RI
FRQVWUXFWLRQ LQYDULDEO\ QHJRWLDWLRQV WDNH SODFH
DWDOPRVWHYHU\VWDJHIURPWKHWHQGHUQRWLFHXS
WRWKHODVWGDWHRIWKHGHIHFWOLDELOLW\SHULRG

7KH PRVW LPSRUWDQW IRUPV RI $'5 DUH
DGMXGLFDWLRQDQGDUELWUDWLRQ%RWKWKHVHGLVSXWH
UHVROXWLRQ PHWKRGRORJLHV PRVWO\ FRPPDQG
WKHLU LPSRUWDQFH E\ ZD\ RI FRQWUDFWXDO FODXVHV
HPERGLHG LQ WKH UHVSHFWLYH FRQWUDFWV HYHQ
WKRXJKWKHUHDUHH[FHSWLRQVWRWKHUXOH

7KH GLFWLRQDU\ PHDQLQJ RI DGMXGLFDWLRQ LV
SURQRXQFLQJ MXGJPHQW RU PDNLQJ DQ RIILFLDO
GHFLVLRQ DERXW ZKR LV ULJKW LQ D GLVDJUHHPHQW
EHWZHHQWZRJURXSVRUWZRRUJDQLVDWLRQV>@,W
LV QRWHZRUWK\ WR H[DPLQH WKH ZRUG FRQIOLFW
DQG KRZ D FRQIOLFW EHFRPHV D GLVSXWH ZLWK
UHIHUHQFH WR $OWHUQDWLYH 'LVSXWH 5HVROXWLRQ
7KH GLFWLRQDU\ PHDQLQJ RI FRQIOLFW LV $
VLWXDWLRQLQZKLFKSHRSOHDJURXSRUFRXQWULHV
DUH LQYROYHG LQ D VHULRXV GLVDJUHHPHQW RU
DUJXPHQW>@ &RQIOLFW LV DOVR GHILQHG E\
YDULRXV DXWKRUV LQ YDULRXV PDQQHUV DQG D IHZ
RIVXFKGHILQLWLRQVDUHUHSURGXFHGEHORZ

x $ SURFHVV WKDW EHJLQV ZKHQ RQH SDUW\
SHUFHLYHV WKDW DQRWKHU SDUW\ KDV QHJDWLYHO\
DIIHFWHG RU LV DERXW WR QHJDWLYHO\ DIIHFWV
VRPHWKLQJWKDWWKHILUVWSDUW\FDUHVDERXW>@

x &RQIOLFW H[LVWV ZKHQ WZR RU PRUH SDUWLHV
GLVDJUHH DERXW VRPHWKLQJ 7KHVH SDUWLHV DUH
LQWHUGHSHQGHQW PHDQLQJ WKDW WKH UHVROXWLRQ
RI WKH FRQIOLFW WR PXWXDO VDWLVIDFWLRQ FDQQRW
RFFXUZLWKRXWVRPHPXWXDOHIIRUW>@

x $ GLVSXWH LV WKH UHVXOW RI DQ XQVHWWOHG
FRQIOLFWZKHUHWKHDUJXLQJSDUWLHVDUHXQDEOH
WR VHWWOH WKHLU GLIIHUHQFHV RU UHDFK D
FRPSURPLVH ,W LV DQ DUJXPHQW RU D TXDUUHO
7KH GLVSXWH H[LVWV EHFDXVH WKH SRWHQWLDO
GLIIHUHQFHV KDYH EHHQ UHDOL]HG DQG WKH
SDUWLHVKDYHEHHQXQDEOHWRUHVROYHWKHP>@

$ FLYLO HQJLQHHULQJ FRQWUDFW SDUWLFXODUO\ RQH RI
DQ\PDJQLWXGHZKLFKGLGQRWJLYHULVHWRVRPH
GLVSXWHLVQRWWRWKHGLVFUHGLWRIHLWKHUSDUW\WR
WKHFRQWUDFW,WLVVLPSO\WKHQDWXUHRIWKHEHDVW
:KDWLVWRWKHLUGLVFUHGLWLVLIWKH\IDLOWRUHVROYH
WKRVH GLVSXWHV DV TXLFNO\ HFRQRPLFDOO\ DQG
VHQVLEO\DVSRVVLEOH>@

$GMXGLFDWLRQ LQLWLDOO\ H[LVWHG RQO\ LQ D OLPLWHG


QXPEHURI&RQGLWLRQVRI&RQWUDFWV1HZ&LYLO
(QJLQHHULQJ FRQWUDFWV DV ZHOO DV -&7 -RLQW
&RQWUDFWV 7ULEXQDO  FRQWUDFWV ZKHUH WKH
&RQGLWLRQV RI &RQWUDFW XVH WKH DGMXGLFDWLRQ
SURFHVV IRU WKH YHU\ ILUVW WLPH  /DWHU WKH 
(GLWLRQ RI ),',& &RQGLWLRQV RI &RQWUDFW
LQWURGXFHG DGMXGLFDWLRQ DOWKRXJK LQ HDUOLHU
HGLWLRQV RI ),',& GLVSXWH UHVROXWLRQ ZDV
UHVWULFWHG WR DUELWUDWLRQ $UELWUDWLRQ KDV EHHQ
WKHUHLQPRVWRIWKHFRQWUDFWGRFXPHQWVDWOHDVW
IRU WKUHH GHFDGHV DOWKRXJK WKH $UELWUDWLRQ $FW
ZDV HQIRUFHG DV ODWH DV WKH  HYHQ LQ
FRXQWULHVOLNHWKH8.>@

7KH ,&7$' &RQGLWLRQV RI &RQWUDFW LQWURGXFHG
$GMXGLFDWLRQ LQ LWV 6%' 6WDQGDUG %LGGLQJ
'RFXPHQW  YHUVLRQV 7KH LGHD RI KDYLQJ
$GMXGLFDWLRQ LQ WKH &RQGLWLRQV RI &RQWUDFW LV
WKDWZKLOHWKHSDUWLHVUHVHUYHWKHLUULJKWWRUHIHU
WKH PDWWHU WR $UELWUDWLRQ WKH\ DOVR KDYH WKH
IUHHGRP RI UHIHUULQJ DQ\ GLVSXWH WR
$GMXGLFDWLRQLQRUGHUWRREWDLQDTXLFNVROXWLRQ
ZKLOHWKHFRQWUDFWLVLQSURJUHVV>@

7KHUHLVDYLHZLQWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQLQGXVWU\WKDW
DVWKH(QJLQHHULQDFRQWUDFWLVDSSRLQWHGE\WKH
(PSOR\HU KH KDV WR EH REOLJHG DQG ORRNV DIWHU
WKHLQWHUHVWVRIWKH(PSOR\HU%\UHIHUULQJWRWKH
 (GLWLRQ RI ),',& &RQGLWLRQV RI &RQWUDFW
RQH FRXOG VHH WKDW WKH (QJLQHHU LV GHILQHG DV D
SHUVRQDSSRLQWHGE\WKH(PSOR\HUWRDFWDVWKH
(QJLQHHU IRU WKH SXUSRVHV RI WKH FRQWUDFW DQG
QDPHG LQ WKH $SSHQGL[  WR 7HQGHU RU RWKHU
SHUVRQ DSSRLQWHG IURP WLPH WR WLPH E\ WKH
(PSOR\HU DQG QRWLILHG WR WKH &RQWUDFWRU
$OWKRXJK WKH (QJLQHHU VKRXOG DFW LPSDUWLDOO\
WKHUH LV D EHOLHI WKDW WKH (QJLQHHU LV QRW DQ
LQGHSHQGHQW SHUVRQ $V D UHVXOW RI WKLV EHOLHI
PRVWRIWKHFRQWUDFWLQJSDUWLHVKDYHFRQVLGHUHG
WKDWLWFRXOGEHPXFKDGYDQWDJHRXVWRKDYHDQ
LQGHSHQGHQW SHUVRQ WR UHVROYH SUREDEOH
GLVSXWHV LQ WKH FRQWUDFW DQG DV D UHVXOW
$GMXGLFDWLRQ KDV EHHQ LQWURGXFHG LQ PRVW RI
WKH PRGHUQ &RQGLWLRQV RI &RQWUDFW WKH ZRUOG
RYHU

7KHUHIRUH WKH VSLULW RI UHVROYLQJ GLVSXWHV E\
DGMXGLFDWLRQ LV ZKHQ WZR SDUWLHV HQWHU LQWR D
FRQWUDFW ZKHUH WKH\ KDYH FRQWUDFWXDO
REOLJDWLRQVDQGLIWKH\FDQQRWDJUHHRQKRZWKH
FRQWUDFWLVWREHLQWHUSUHWHGWRUHIHUWKHPDWWHU
WR DQ LQGHSHQGHQW SHUVRQ 7KH $GMXGLFDWRU
SUHVXPHG WR EH DQ LPSDUWLDO SHUVRQ KDYLQJ
NQRZOHGJH DERXW WKH FRQWUDFW DQG WKH VXEMHFW




ENGINEER

74

 %HIRUHWKH$GMXGLFDWLRQ

PDWWHU JLYHV D TXLFN ZRUNLQJ GHFLVLRQ RQ WKH


LVVXHVWKDWKDYHDULVHQLQWKHFRQWUDFW7KLVZLOO
GHILQLWHO\ HQDEOH WKH FRQWUDFW WR FRQWLQXH
ZLWKRXW DQ\ LQWHUUXSWLRQ DQG WKH GLVDJUHHLQJ
SDUW\WRWKH$GMXGLFDWRUVGHFLVLRQFRXOGUHVRUW
WRDUELWUDWLRQRUOLWLJDWLRQDWDIXWXUHGDWH


 6WDWXWRU\
$GMXGLFDWLRQ
&RQWUDFWXDO$GMXGLFDWLRQ


$ SUHUHTXLVLWH IRU DGMXGLFDWLRQ LV D GLVSXWH
6RPH FRQWUDFWV GHILQH WKH ZRUG GLVSXWH DQG
SUHVFULEHWKHSURFHGXUHWREHIROORZHGZKHUHDV
RWKHUVGRQRWGHILQHWKHGLVSXWHSURFHGXUHDQG
WKH ILUVW LQGLFDWLRQ WKDW D GLVSXWH KDV DULVHQ
FRXOGEHZKHQRQHSDUW\WRWKHFRQWUDFWLVVXHVD
QRWLFH RI LQWHQWLRQ WR UHIHU WKH GLVSXWH WR
DGMXGLFDWLRQ

-RKQ7LPSVRQ %ULDQ7RWWHUGLOO>@VWDWHLQ
WKHLU IDPRXV ERRN $GMXGLFDWLRQ IRU $UFKLWHFWV
DQG(QJLQHHUVDVIROORZV

7KH IDFW WKDW DQ LVVXH FDQ EH GHFODUHG WR EH D
GLVSXWH DQG UHIHUUHG WR $GMXGLFDWLRQ GRHV QRW
QHFHVVDULO\ PHDQ WKDW DGMXGLFDWLRQ LV WKH EHVW
ZD\ IRUZDUG 7KH SHUVRQ ZKR LV FRQVLGHULQJ
WKH UHIHUUDO PXVW EH VDWLVILHG WKDW LPPHGLDWH
DGMXGLFDWLRQ LV WKH EHVW FRXUVH RI DFWLRQ DQG LV
LQ KLV RU KHU RZQ EHVW LQWHUHVWV 7KLV UHTXLUHV
FRQVLGHUDWLRQ RI WKH VHTXHQFH RI TXHVWLRQV
ZKLFKDUHDVIROORZV

x :KDW LV WKH LVVXH ZKLFK ZH DUH WU\LQJ WR
UHVROYH"
x +DYH , PDGH P\ YLHZV FOHDU WR WKH RWKHU
VLGH"'RWKH\UHDOLVHWKDWWKHLQLWLDOSUREOHP
KDV EHFRPH D GLVSXWH DQG , LQWHQG WR
LQYROYHDQLQGHSHQGHQWGLVSXWHUHVROYHU"
x :RXOGIXUWKHULQYHVWLJDWLRQRUWHVWVKHOSWR
FODULI\WKHFDXVHRIWKHSUREOHPDQGUHVROYH
WKH GLVSXWH" ,I VR VKRXOG WKH LQYHVWLJDWLRQ
RU WHVWV WR EH FDUULHG RXW EHIRUH , UHIHU WKH
PDWWHUWRDGMXGLFDWLRQ"
x :LOODQLPSDUWLDOGHFLVLRQZLWKLQDOLPLWHG
WLPH SHULRG EH KHOSIXO WR WKH SURMHFW DV D
ZKROH"
x ,V DGMXGLFDWLRQ DSSURSULDWH IRU WKLV
SDUWLFXODUSUREOHPRULVWKHUHDEHWWHUZD\
IRUZDUG" 6KRXOG , WU\ IXUWKHU QHJRWLDWLRQ
PHGLDWLRQRUFRQFLOLDWLRQ"
x :RXOG LW EH EHWWHU WR UHIHU WKH SUREOHP
GLUHFW WR $UELWUDWLRQ" ,V LPPHGLDWH
$UELWUDWLRQSHUPLWWHGE\WKH&RQWUDFW"
x ,V WKHUH DQ\ SURFHGXUH ZKLFK PXVW EH
IROORZHGEHIRUHWKHSUREOHPFDQEHUHIHUUHG
WR$GMXGLFDWLRQ"

$GMXGLFDWLRQVKRXOGQRWEHUHVRUWHGWRZLWKRXW
SURSHU FRQVLGHUDWLRQ RI LWV FRQVHTXHQFHV
$GMXGLFDWLRQLVLQSULQFLSOHDSURFHGXUHZKLFK
OHDGV WR DQ LPSDUWLDO GHFLVLRQ ZLWKLQ WKH JLYHQ
WLPHSHULRG7KHGHFLVLRQPXVWEHLPSOHPHQWHG
EXW LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ PD\ EH ODWHU UHYHUVHG E\
DUELWUDWLRQ RU OLWLJDWLRQ 6RPH LVVXHV DQG

DQG


$GMXGLFDWLRQEHJLQVZKHQWKHUHLVDGLVSXWHLQD
FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRQWUDFW GHSHQGLQJ RQ WKH
DSSOLFDEOH GLVSXWH UHVROXWLRQ PHFKDQLVP
DQGRUWKHOHJLVODWLRQRIWKHFRXQWU\

&RQVWUXFWLRQ GLVSXWHV JRYHUQHG E\ OHJLVODWLRQ
VXFK DV WKH +RXVLQJ *UDQW &RQVWUXFWLRQ DQG
5HJHQHUDWLRQ$FWRI8.RUVLPLODUVWDWXWH
LQD6WDWHSURYLGLQJIRUDGMXGLFDWLRQRIGLVSXWHV
E\ FRPSXOVLRQ FUHDWHV WKH SURYLVLRQ IRU DQ
$'5SURFHVVFDOOHG6WDWXWRU\$GMXGLFDWLRQ

,QFRXQWULHVVXFKDV6UL/DQNDZKHUHWKHUHLVQR
VWDWXWHJRYHUQLQJDGMXGLFDWLRQWKHDGMXGLFDWLRQ
SURFHVV LV SURYLGHG IRU LQ WKH FRQGLWLRQV RI
FRQWUDFW JLYLQJ ULVH WR DQ $'5 SURFHVV FDOOHG
&RQWUDFWXDO$GMXGLFDWLRQ

,Q WKH 6UL /DQNDQ FRQWH[W WKHUH LV QR VWDWXWH
JRYHUQLQJDGMXGLFDWLRQDVVWDWHGDERYH+HQFH
DWSUHVHQWLQWKH6UL/DQNDQFRQWH[WRQHZRXOG
QRWHQFRXQWHUVWDWXWRU\DGMXGLFDWLRQVDVZHOODV
FRPSOLFDWLRQVDULVLQJRXWRIERWKSDUWLHVRSWLQJ
WR DGMXGLFDWH XQGHU GLIIHUHQW DGMXGLFDWLRQV RQ
WKHVDPHPDWWHUJLYLQJULVHWRVLWXDWLRQVZKHUH
WKHUH FRXOG EH WZR DGMXGLFDWLRQV RQ WKH VDPH
PDWWHU VLPXOWDQHRXVO\ 0RVW FRQVWUXFWLRQ
FRQWUDFWVLQFOXGHSURYLVLRQIRUDQ\FODLPRUDQ\
RWKHU LVVXH RU SUREOHP WR EH QRWLILHG WR WKH
(QJLQHHUDQGWKHRWKHUSDUW\ZKHQWKHSUREOHP
ILUVWDULVHV7KLVZRXOGHQFRXUDJHWKHSDUWLHVWR
QHJRWLDWH DQG ILQDOO\ VHWWOH LQ DFFRUGDQFH ZLWK
FHUWDLQVWDWHGSURFHGXUHVXSRQDJUHHLQJWRVXFK
SURFHGXUH

7KH DGMXGLFDWLRQ SURFHVV FDQ EH YLHZHG DV
FRQVLVWLQJRIFRPSRQHQWV

 %HIRUHWKH$GMXGLFDWLRQ
 1RWLFHRI$GMXGLFDWLRQ
 6HOHFWLRQ DQG DSSRLQWPHQW RI WKH
$GMXGLFDWRU
 5HIHUUDO RI WKH GLVSXWH WR WKH
$GMXGLFDWRU
 &RQGXFWRIWKH$GMXGLFDWLRQ
 7KH$GMXGLFDWRUVGHFLVLRQ


75

ENGINEER


,WLVSHUWLQHQW WR QRWHWKDW QHLWKHUSDUW\ ZLOOEH
SHUPLWWHG WR LQWURGXFH DGGLWLRQDO LVVXHV DW WKH
KHDULQJ ,I HLWKHU SDUW\ ZLVKHV WR KDYH VRPH
RWKHU PDWWHU DGGLWLRQDO FODLP RU D FRXQWHU
FODLPIRUFRQVLGHUDWLRQLWVKRXOGEHUHIHUUHGE\
D VHSDUDWH QRWLFH RI DGMXGLFDWLRQ XQOHVV ERWK
SDUWLHVDQGWKH$GMXGLFDWRUDJUHHWRH[WHQGWKH
VFRSHRIWKHSHQGLQJDGMXGLFDWLRQ7KLVLVDOVRD
VLWXDWLRQ ZKHUH SDUW\ DXWRQRP\ JRYHUQV
6LPXOWDQHRXVO\LIDQ\SDUW\ZLVKHVWRUDLVHDQ\
SURFHGXUDO REMHFWLRQ LW PXVW EH UDLVHG
LPPHGLDWHO\RWKHUZLVHLWLVFRQVLGHUHGWKDWWKH
ULJKW WR REMHFW KDG EHHQ ZDLYHG 7KH
$GMXGLFDWRU KDV WKH MXULVGLFWLRQ WR WDNH XS DQ\
REMHFWLRQ LQFOXGLQJ WKDW RI WKH DSSRLQWPHQW RI
WKH DGMXGLFDWRU  6RPH FRQWUDFWV HQFRXUDJH WKH
DSSRLQWPHQW RI DQ DGMXGLFDWRU DV HDUO\ DV WKH
WHQGHU VWDJH ,I WKH $GMXGLFDWRU KDG EHHQ
DSSRLQWHG DW WKH EHJLQQLQJ KH LV DYDLODEOH WR
UHVROYH DQ\ GLVSXWH VLQFH WKH LQFHSWLRQ  ,Q
VRPH &RQWUDFWV WKH (PSOR\HU QDPHV WKH
$GMXGLFDWRU LQ WKH 7HQGHU 'RFXPHQW LWVHOI
+RZHYHU LI WKH &RQWUDFWRU LV QRW FRPIRUWDEOH
ZLWK VXFK DQ DSSRLQWPHQW KH FRXOG REMHFW WR
WKLVXQLODWHUDODSSRLQWPHQW


GLVSXWHV LQ FRQVWUXFWLRQ PD\ QRW EH EHVW


UHVROYHGE\DGMXGLFDWLRQ

7KH IROORZLQJ DUH VRPH RI WKH H[DPSOHV ZKLFK
DUH QRW VXLWDEOH IRU DGMXGLFDWLRQ WKRXJK QRW
H[KDXVWLYH

x 'LVSXWHV ZKLFK FRPSULVH VHYHUDO LVVXHV
7KHVH PD\ QHHG WR EH FRQVLGHUHG DV
VHSDUDWH
GLVSXWHV
ZLWK
VHSDUDWH
DGMXGLFDWLRQV RU DV UHTXLULQJ D VHULHV RI
GHFLVLRQVRYHUDQH[WHQGHGSHULRG
x 'LVSXWHVLQYROYLQJFRPSOH[OHJDOLVVXHV
x 'LVSXWHV ZKLFK UHTXLUH D GHFLVLRQ WKH
FRQVHTXHQFHV RI ZKLFK FDQQRW EH UHYHUVHG
VXFK DV D PDWWHU RI WHUPLQDWLRQ DOOHJHG
FRUUXSWLRQ RU DOOHJDWLRQV DJDLQVW D
SURIHVVLRQDOSHUVRQ
x 0DWWHUV VXFK DV GHVLJQ RU TXDOLW\ ZKLFK
DIIHFWWKHIRUPRIWKHFRPSOHWHGSURMHFWDQG
IRUZKLFKWKH&RQWUDFWVWDWHVWKDWRQHRIWKH
3DUWLHV LV UHVSRQVLEOH IRU WKH LVVXH RI
GHFLVLRQV RU LQVWUXFWLRQV 'LVSXWHV
FRQFHUQLQJ WKH OLDELOLW\ IRU DGGLWLRQDO FRVWV
DV D FRQVHTXHQFH RI VXFK D GHFLVLRQ RU
LQVWUXFWLRQDUHPRUHOLNHO\WREHVXLWDEOH
x 0DWWHUVRQZKLFKWKHGHFLVLRQLVZLWKLQWKH
SURYLQFHRIVRPHRWKHUSHUVRQRUDXWKRULW\
VXFK DV 9$7 WD[DWLRQ LVVXHV KHDOWK DQG
VDIHW\ RU DQ\ DOOHJDWLRQ ZLWK FULPLQDO
LPSOLFDWLRQVPXVWEHUHIHUUHGWRWKHSURSHU
DXWKRULW\


 6HOHFWLRQ DQG $SSRLQWPHQW RI WKH


$GMXGLFDWRU


7KH $GMXGLFDWRU PXVW EH VHOHFWHG DQG
DSSRLQWHG LQ RUGHU IRU WKH SURFHVV WR
FRPPHQFH  ,UUHVSHFWLYH RI ZKHWKHU WKH
$GMXGLFDWRU LV DSSRLQWHG DW WKH VWDUW RI WKH
SURMHFW RU DIWHU WKH GLVSXWH KDV DULVHQ LW LV RI
SULPDU\ LPSRUWDQFH WR DSSRLQW D VXLWDEOH
SHUVRQ ,W LV H[WUHPHO\ LPSRUWDQW WKDW WKH
SHUVRQ DSSRLQWHG DV DQ $GMXGLFDWRU PXVW EH
NQRZOHGJHDEOHDQGKDYHH[SHULHQFHLQWKHW\SH
RI FRQVWUXFWLRQ SURMHFW WKDW KH LV JRLQJ WR
DGMXGLFDWH +H VKRXOG DOVR EH DEOH WR
XQGHUVWDQG WKH LVVXH WKDW FRXOG DULVH LQ D
FRQWUDFW RI WKH DIRUHVDLG QDWXUH  ,W LV DOVR RI
SULPDU\ LPSRUWDQFH WKDW WKH $GMXGLFDWRU KDV
EDVLF WUDLQLQJ DV DQ $GMXGLFDWRU NQRZOHGJH LQ
&RQGLWLRQV RI &RQWUDFW WRJHWKHU ZLWK WKH
FRQILGHQFH LQ PDNLQJ D GHFLVLRQ  $SDUW IURP
WKLV WKH $GMXGLFDWRU VKRXOG QRW KDYH DQ\
LQWHUHVWV LQ WKH 3URMHFW 7KH LPSRUWDQW IDFWRUV
WKDW KDYH WR EH ORRNHG LQWR ZKHQ VHOHFWLQJ DQ
$GMXGLFDWRUDUHVXPPDULVHGEHORZ

x ,WLVQHFHVVDU\WRFKHFNWKDWWKHDSSRLQWHG
$GMXGLFDWRU LV VWLOO DYDLODEOH ZKHQ WKH
GLVSXWH DFWXDOO\ DULVHV  7KHUH PD\ KDYH
EHHQ FKDQJHV LQ KLV KHDOWK RU
FLUFXPVWDQFHV VLQFH WKH DSSRLQWPHQW
$GMXGLFDWLRQ UHTXLUHV LQWHQVLYH DFWLYLW\

 1RWLFHRI$GMXGLFDWLRQ


)RU DQ DGMXGLFDWLRQ WR FRPPHQFH WKH SHUVRQ
ZKRGHFLGHVWRUHIHUDGLVSXWHPXVWLQIRUPWKH
RWKHU SDUW\ RI KLV LQWHQWLRQ 7KLV LV WHUPHG
1RWLFH RI $GMXGLFDWLRQ IURP 5HIHUULQJ 3DUW\
WR WKH 2WKHU 3DUW\ ZKR LV DOVR NQRZQ DV WKH
5HVSRQGLQJ 3DUW\ RU 5HFHLYLQJ 3DUW\ 7KH
QRWLFH VKRXOG DOZD\V EH LQ ZULWLQJ DQG VKDOO
FRPSO\ ZLWK DQ\ SURFHGXUH VWLSXODWHG LQ WKH
FRQWUDFWLIDQ\1RWLFHVKRXOGLQFOXGHVXIILFLHQW
LQIRUPDWLRQWRVDWLVI\WKLVSXUSRVHPDLQO\

x 3DUWLFXODUV RI GLVSXWH WR EH UHIHUUHG WR
DGMXGLFDWLRQ
x $SSUDLVH
QRPLQDWLQJ
ERG\SRWHQWLDO
$GMXGLFDWRUEDVLFLQIRUPDWLRQ

$WWKLVSRLQWWKH$GMXGLFDWRUZLOOEHVHOHFWHGLI
QRW DOUHDG\ QDPHG LQ WKH FRQWUDFW DQG WKH
PDWWHUZLOOEHDGMXGLFDWHGLQWHUPVRIQRWLFHRI
DGMXGLFDWLRQDQGWKHFRQWUDFW


ENGINEER

76

x

x

x

,W PXVW EH ERUQH LQ PLQG WKDW WKH 6WDWHPHQW RI
&ODLP VKRXOG EH FOHDU FRQFLVH DQG ORJLFDO  $V
WKH DGMXGLFDWLRQ ZLOO EH WDNLQJ SODFH ZLWKLQ D
UHVWULFWHG WLPH IUDPH FODULW\ RI WKH
FRPPXQLFDWLRQ LV HVVHQWLDO 7KH 6WDWHPHQW RI
&ODLP VKRXOG QRW EH UHVWULFWHG ULJLGO\ WR RQH
VLGHG DUJXPHQW  7KHUH FRXOG KDYH EHHQ DQ
H[FKDQJH RI FRUUHVSRQGHQFH GLVFXVVLRQV
UHTXHVW IRU IXUWKHU LQIRUPDWLRQ DQG
LQYHVWLJDWLRQV
DQG
VXFK
FRPSOHWH
FRPPXQLFDWLRQ VKRXOG EH SUHVHQWHG WR WKH
$GMXGLFDWRU ,W LV WR WKH EHVW LQWHUHVW RI WKH
UHIHUULQJ SDUW\ WKDW WKH $GMXGLFDWRU DFKLHYHV D
FOHDU XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI WKH GLVSXWH DQG WKH
ORJLFDO VHTXHQFHV RI HYHQWV ZLWKLQ WKH OHDVW
SRVVLEOH WLPH GXULQJ WKH DGMXGLFDWLRQ SHULRG
ZKLFK LQYDULDEO\ LV VWLSXODWHG  ,Q D PDMRU
GLVSXWHWKH6WDWHPHQWRI&ODLPPD\LQFOXGH

x $ EULHI VXPPDU\ RI WKH GLVSXWH DQG WKH
SUREOHPZKLFKOHGWRWKHGLVSXWH
x (YLGHQFH LQ WKH IRUP RI GRFXPHQWV
SKRWRJUDSKV ZLWQHVV VWDWHPHQWV DQGRU
H[SHUWRSLQLRQWRHVWDEOLVKWKHIDFWXDOEDVLV
RIWKHFODLP
x /HJDODQGFRQWUDFWXDODUJXPHQWVRQZKLFK
WKH FODLP LV EDVHG ZLWK WKH DXWKRULWLHV
ZKHQDYDLODEOH

-RKQ7LPSVRQ %ULDQ7RWWHUGLOO>@VWDWHLQ
WKHLU IDPRXV ERRN $GMXGLFDWLRQ IRU $UFKLWHFWV
DQG(QJLQHHUVDVIROORZV

,I WKH UHIHUULQJ 3DUW\ LV DQ[LRXV WR SURYH LWV
FDVH LW ZLOO ZKLOH SUHSDULQJ LWV 6WDWHPHQW RI
&ODLP

x 0DNH VXUH RI LWV OHJDO DQG FRQWUDFWXDO
SRVLWLRQEHIRUHHPEDUNLQJRQWKHSURFHVV
x $YRLG DPELJXLW\ VR DV QRW WR OHDYH DQ\
URRPIRUGRXEW
x &KHFNDQGGRXEOHFKHFNDOOIDFWXDOPDWWHUV
x $YRLG H[DJJHUDWLRQ DQG VSHFXODWLYH
DOOHJDWLRQV
x /RRN DW HYHU\ SRLQW IURP WKH RSSRVLWH
SRLQWRIYLHZDQGVDWLVI\WKDWWKHUHDUHQR
ZHDNQHVVHVLQWKHDUJXPHQWVRUHYLGHQFH
x 7DNHVSHFLDOLVWDGYLFHZKHUHYHUQHFHVVDU\
x 0DNH VXUH WKDW WKH HYLGHQFH FRQYLQFLQJO\
VXSSRUWVDQ\DOOHJDWLRQVRUUHIXWDWLRQV
x +DYHUHJDUGWRWKHIDFWWKDWLWLVDGLIILFXOW
WDVN WR VHW GRZQ XQDPELJXRXVO\ DQG
H[DFWO\ZKDWKDSSHQHGDQGKRZDQGZK\
WKHFDVHLVMXVWLILHG>@




GXULQJ D VKRUW SHULRG DQG KH PD\ KDYH


RWKHU FRPPLWPHQWV ZKLFK ZRXOG SUHYHQW
KLP IURP DOORFDWLQJ VXIILFLHQW WLPH WR WKH
DGMXGLFDWLRQ
$ SRVVLEOH FRQIOLFW RI LQWHUHVW PD\ KDYH
DULVHQZKLFKZDVQRWNQRZQZKHQKHZDV
DSSRLQWHG
$ SDUWLFXODU GLVSXWH PD\ UHTXLUH
VSHFLDOLVHG NQRZOHGJH ZKLFK LV QRW
SRVVHVVHGE\DQ$GMXGLFDWRU
,I SUDFWLFLQJ $GMXGLFDWRUV DUH QDPHG LQ D
ODUJH QXPEHU RI FRQWUDFWV RU DSSRLQWHG
EXW QRW XVHG LW EHFRPHV LPSRVVLEOH IRU
WKHP WR SODQ WKHLU DYDLODELOLW\ IRU RWKHU
DSSRLQWPHQWV


3URFHGXUH IRU WKH DFWXDO DSSRLQWPHQW FDQ YDU\
DQG PD\ LQFOXGH DSSO\LQJ WR DQ DSSRLQWLQJ RU
QRPLQDWLQJ ERG\ PDGH LQ WKH FRQWUDFW FKRVHQ
E\ DJUHHPHQW RU FKRVHQ XQLODWHUDOO\ E\ WKH
UHIHUULQJ SDUW\  7KH SURFHGXUH VKRXOG EH
VWXGLHG E\ ERWK SDUWLHV DQG WKH $GMXGLFDWRU LQ
KLVRZQLQWHUHVW7KHUHDUHPDQ\DGYDQWDJHVLQ
DSSRLQWLQJ DQ $GMXGLFDWRU DW WKH LQFHSWLRQ RI
WKH 3URMHFW DV LW JLYHV VXIILFLHQW WLPH IRU WKH
SDUWLHV DQG WKH $GMXGLFDWRU WR GLVFXVV WHUPV
DQGIHHV


 5HIHUUDO RI WKH 'LVSXWH WR WKH


$GMXGLFDWRU

7KHPHFKDQLFVRIUHIHUUDODQGUHVSRQVHYDU\LQ
GLIIHUHQW DGMXGLFDWLRQ SURFHGXUHV EXW DUH
JHQHUDOO\EDVHGRQWKHIROORZLQJ

x 7KH $GMXGLFDWRU KDV EHHQ DSSRLQWHG DQG
KDVDFRS\RIWKH1RWLFHRI$GMXGLFDWLRQ
x 7KH UHIHUULQJ 3DUW\ VHQGV WKH $GMXGLFDWRU
KLV 6WDWHPHQW RI &DVH ZLWK D FRS\ WR WKH
RWKHU3DUW\
x 7KH UHVSRQGLQJ 3DUW\ VHQGV WKH
$GMXGLFDWRU KLV UHVSRQVH ZLWK D FRS\ WR
WKHUHIHUULQJ3DUW\

7KHUHIHUULQJSDUW\ZLOOXVXDOO\WDNHDGYDQWDJH
RI WKH RSSRUWXQLW\ WR SURYLGH GHWDLOHG
H[SODQDWLRQ RI WKH FDVH XVXDOO\ NQRZQ DV
6WDWHPHQW RI &ODLP  $ ZHOO DUJXHG
SUHVHQWDWLRQ OHJDO RU FRQWUDFWXDO DUJXPHQWV
EDFNHG E\ DXWKRULWDWLYH UHIHUHQFHV ZLOO KDYH D
SHUVXDVLYH HIIHFW RQ WKH $GMXGLFDWRU 7KH
UHIHUULQJSDUW\DOVRKDVDQDGYDQWDJHRIWLPLQJ
WKHDGMXGLFDWLRQSURFHVV

,W LV D PLVQRPHU WR EHOLHYH WKDW WKH JUHDWHU WKH
QXPEHU RI SDJHV WKH PRUH SHUVXDVLYH LV WKH
6WDWHPHQWRI&ODLP

77

ENGINEER

 &RQGXFWRI$GMXGLFDWLRQ

DGMXGLFDWLRQLVUHTXLUHGWREHFRQFOXGHGZLWKLQ
 GD\V D W\SLFDO SURJUDPPH LV DSSHQGHG
EHORZ

5HFHLYHVFODLPFRQILUPVDQG
FRQVLGHUVVWDWHPHQWLVDGYLFHQHHGHG"
'UDIWVSURJUDPPH



&ODLPDQWUHIHUVDQGVHQGV
VWDWHPHQWRIFODLP




,VVXHVGLUHFWLRQVDQGVHWV
SURJUDPPHDOOE\ID[




)XUWKHULQIRGRFVIURP
FODLPDQW




























5HVSRQGHQWVVWDWHPHQWRU
GRFXPHQWV


'D\


'D\



'D\


'D\

,QVSHFWLRQPHHWLQJ


+HDULQJ


)XUWKHULQIR



'D\VUHVHUYHGIRUIXUWKHULQTXLULHVLIQHFHVVDU\
$QGDQ\DGYLFHIURPVSHFLDOLVWFRQVXOWDQWV


'D\VUHVHUYHGIRUGUDIWLQJDQGGHOLYHU\GHFLVLRQ
ZLWKUHDVRQVLIUHTXLUHGXQGHUSURFHGXUH 





'D\V



)LJXUH$GMXGLFDWLRQ'RFXPHQW)ORZ 7\SLFDO3URJUDPPH


'D\V


















,PPHGLDWHO\ DIWHU WKH $GMXGLFDWRU ZRXOG
VWXG\ WKH 6WDWHPHQW RI &ODLP DQG SUHSDUH WKH
SURYLVLRQDO WLPHWDEOH IRU WKH $GMXGLFDWLRQ $
W\SLFDOSURJUDPPHLVVKRZQDERYHLQ)LJXUH

7KH WLPHWDEOH ZLOO VKRZ KRZ KH SURSRVHV WR
FRPSOHWH KLV ZRUN ZLWKLQ WKH WLPH SHULRG
ZKLFK LV SHUPLWWHG E\ WKH FRQWUDFW SURFHGXUH
EDVHGRQKLVDVVXPSWLRQVDVWRWKHDFWLRQZKLFK
ZLOO EHQHFHVVDU\,W ZLOODOVRWDNH LQWRDFFRXQW
DQ\UHTXHVWVIURPWKHSDUWLHVWRJHWKHUZLWKWKH
UHTXLUHPHQWV RI KLV RZQ GLDU\ ,I WKH FRQWUDFW
SURFHGXUH GRHV QRW DOORZ VSHFLILFDOO\ IRU D
UHVSRQVH IURP WKH UHVSRQGLQJ SDUW\ WKHQ WKH
$GMXGLFDWRUPD\LQFOXGHDVXLWDEOHSURYLVLRQ

7KH$GMXGLFDWRUZLOOUHYLVHWKHLQLWLDOWLPHWDEOH
DV WKH DGMXGLFDWLRQ SURFHHGV DQG IXUWKHU
LQIRUPDWLRQ EHFRPHV DYDLODEOH 7KH WLPHWDEOH
ZLOO LQFOXGH D SHULRG IRU WKH $GMXGLFDWRU WR
DVVHVVWKHLQIRUPDWLRQZKLFKKHKDVUHFHLYHGWR
$UULYHDWKLVGHFLVLRQDQGWRSUHSDUHKLVZULWWHQ
GHFLVLRQ
ENGINEER




$Q\WHVWV



'D\





'D\V



,WLVFXVWRPDU\WKDWWKHFRQGXFWRIDGMXGLFDWLRQ
LV VXEMHFW WR D WLPH IUDPH  ,Q D FDVH ZKHUH



7KH$GMXGLFDWRUV'HFLVLRQ


7KH DLP RI DGMXGLFDWLRQ LV IRU WKH SDUWLHV WR
UHFHLYH DQ LPSDUWLDO GHFLVLRQ RQ WKHLU GLVSXWH
ZLWKLQ WKH VWLSXODWHG WLPH  7KH ZULWWHQ
GHFLVLRQ ZKLFK LV VRPHWLPHV NQRZQ DV WKH
'HWHUPLQDWLRQRIWKH$GMXGLFDWRULVWKHSURGXFW
RI WKH $GMXGLFDWRUV ZRUN ZKLFK WKH SDUWLHV
UHFHLYHLQH[FKDQJHIRUDIHH

7KH $GMXGLFDWRUV GHFLVLRQ LV QRW DQ DUELWUDO
DZDUG DQG ZLOO QRUPDOO\ EH VKRUWHU WKDQ DQ
DZDUG RQ D FRPSDUDEOH GLVSXWH  7KHUH LV QR
VWDQGDUG IRUPDW RU JHQHUDOO\ DJUHHG OLVW RI
FRQWHQWV IRU D 'HFLVLRQ  7KH FRQWUDFWV DUH
ZULWWHQFRQWUDFWVDVUHTXLUHGE\WKHODZVRWKDW
WKH $GMXGLFDWRUV GHFLVLRQ ZLOO EH D ZULWWHQ
GHFLVLRQ

7KHUHDUHVDOLHQWIHDWXUHVLQWKHSURFHVVVXFKDV
WKHUHVSRQVHRIWKHWLPHSHULRGRI$GMXGLFDWLRQ
H[LVWHQFH RI 1DWXUDO MXVWLFH DGMXGLFDWLRQ
PHHWLQJVVLWHYLVLWVDVFHUWDLQPHQWRIIDFWVDQG
78

/DZ SHUWDLQLQJ WR WKH DGMXGLFDWLRQ DV ZHOO DV


REWDLQLQJ RI VSHFLDOLVWV DGYLFH E\ WKH
$GMXGLFDWRU


x

x

7KH5HVSRQVH


:KHQ WKH UHIHUULQJ SDUW\ KDV VHQW D 6WDWHPHQW
RI&ODLPWRWKHDGMXGLFDWRUWKHRWKHUSDUW\ZLOO
ZDQWWRUHVSRQG7KHUHVSRQVHPD\QHHGWREH
VXEPLWWHG ZLWKLQ WKH VWLSXODWHG WLPH SHULRG
HLWKHUDVSHUWKHFRQWUDFWRURQWKHGLUHFWLRQRI
WKH$GMXGLFDWRU2QFHWKH$GMXGLFDWRUUHFHLYHV
WKH UHVSRQVH KH FDQ DVVHVV ERWK SDUWLHV SRLQWV
RIYLHZ:KHQDQLVVXHKDVFRPHWRWKHSRLQWRI
QRWLFH RI DGMXGLFDWLRQ WKH SDUWLFXODU GLVSXWH
ZRXOG KDYH EHHQ GLVFXVVHG QHJRWLDWHG RYHU D
FRQVLGHUDEOH SHULRG RI WLPH DQG LQYHVWLJDWHG
RYHU WKH VDPH SHULRG DQG D FHUWDLQ SRLQW RI
UHVSRQVH PLJKW KDYH EHHQ GHYHORSHG 7KH
UHVSRQGLQJSDUW\ZLOONQRZDOODERXWWKHLQLWLDO
SUREOHP KDYH GHFLGHG WR UHMHFW WKH FODLP DQG
GXULQJ WKLV SURFHVV DSSURSULDWH LQYHVWLJDWLRQV
ZRXOG KDYH EHHQ FRQGXFWHG DQG WKH EDVLV RI
WKH UHMHFWLRQ LV UHDGLO\ DYDLODEOH ZLWK WKHP ,I
WKH UHIHUULQJ SDUW\ KDV FUHDWHG DQ DPEXVK
VLWXDWLRQ WKHQ WKH UHVSRQGLQJ SDUW\ ZLOO EH
IDFHG ZLWK D GLIILFXOW RU HYHQ LPSRVVLEOH WDVN
7KH5HVSRQVHWRDGHWDLOHG6WDWHPHQW RI&ODLP
PD\LQFOXGH

x $ EULHI VXPPDU\ RI WKH GLVSXWH DQG WKH
SUREOHP ZKLFK OHG WR WKH GLVSXWH
H[SODLQLQJ WKH FRXQWHU SRLQW RI YLHZ DQG
UHDVRQVIRUUHMHFWLQJWKHFODLP
x /HJDO DQG FRQWUDFWXDO FRXQWHU DUJXPHQWV
ZLWKDXWKRULWLHV
x (YLGHQFH LQ WKH IRUP RI GRFXPHQWV
SKRWRJUDSKV ZLWQHVVHV DQG RU H[SHUW
RSLQLRQWRVXSSRUWDQ\FRXQWHUDUJXPHQWV
DQGDOOHJDWLRQV

,Q VXFK D VLWXDWLRQ WKH UXOHV WKDW KDYH WR EH
IROORZHGE\WKH5HVSRQGHQWDUHWR

x 5HDGFDUHIXOO\DQ\FODLPVWDWHPHQW
x 'HDOZLWKWKHPDWWHUWKRURXJKO\
x $VNIRUFODULILFDWLRQRIDQ\DPELJXLW\
x ,QVLVW WKDW DQ\ DOOHJDWLRQ LV VXSSRUWHG E\
HYLGHQFH LQFOXGLQJ GHWDLOV RI ZKHQ DQG
ZKHUHDQ\DOOHJHGHYHQWVDUHVDLGWRKDYH
WDNHQSODFH
x 0DNH VXUH WKDW LW KDV GHDOW ZLWK HYHU\
SRLQWPDGHRULPSOLHG

x

x
x

3RLQW RXW HYHU\ IDFWXDO HUURU DQG FROODWH


HYLGHQFH ZKLFK ZLOO DVVLVW ZLWK WKH
$GMXGLFDWRUVXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKHFDVH
&RQVLGHU DQ\ FRQWUDFWXDO RU OHJDO SRLQW
DQG PDNH VXUH WKDW HYHU\WKLQJ ZKLFK FDQ
EHUHEXWWHGLVUHEXWWHG
$GPLW WKRVH WKLQJV ZKLFK DUH FRUUHFW EXW
PDNH LW FOHDU H[DFWO\ ZKLFK SRLQWV DUH
FRQWHVWHG
0DNHVXUHWKHUHFRUGLVFRPSOHWH
,I WKH &ODLPDQW KDV JLYHQ RQO\ KDOI WKH
VWRU\DGPLWWKDWZKLFKLVWUXHEXWH[SODLQ
IXOO\WKHPLVVLQJSDUWRIWKHSLFWXUHZKLFK
PD\ SXW D GLIIHUHQW FRPSOH[LRQ RQ WKH
ZKROHDIIDLU>@

7KH$GMXGLFDWLRQWLPHSHULRG


7KH SXUSRVH RI DGMXGLFDWLRQ LV D IDVW GHFLVLRQ
7KH WLPH SHULRG ZKLFK LV DYDLODEOH IRU WKH
DGMXGLFDWLRQSURFHVVGHSHQGVRQDFRQWUDFWDQG
LV DOZD\V UHVWULFWHG DQG FDQQRW EH XQLODWHUDOO\
H[WHQGHG E\ WKH $GMXGLFDWRU 7KH $GMXGLFDWRU
LV UHTXLUHG WR DVVHVV DOO HVWDEOLVKHG UHOHYDQW
IDFWV DQG ODZ UHDFK D JRRG GHFLVLRQ RQ
GLIIHUHQW PDWWHUV 7KLV ZLOO GHSHQG RQ WKH
GHWDLOV RI GLVSXWH DQG WKH FRRSHUDWLRQ RI WKH
SDUWLHV ,Q WHUPV RI WKH ),',& &RQGLWLRQV RI
&RQWUDFW WKH $GMXGLFDWRU KDV EHHQ JLYHQ 
GD\VWRUHVROYHDGLVSXWHDQGWRJLYHDGHFLVLRQ
ZKHUHDV LQ WKH ,&7$' 6%' 6WDQGDUG %LGGLQJ
'RFXPHQW  WKH GXUDWLRQ KDV EHHQ VKRUWHQHG WR
 GD\V RU VXFK RWKHU SHULRG DJUHHG E\ WKH
SDUWLHV7KHZKROHLGHDRIUHGXFLQJWKHQXPEHU
RI GD\V LV WR IDFLOLWDWH D TXLFN GHFLVLRQ GXULQJ
WKH SURJUHVV RI FRQVWUXFWLRQ +RZHYHU WKLV
GRHV QRW XQGHU DQ\ FLUFXPVWDQFHV PHDQ WKDW
WKH $GMXGLFDWRU KDV WR FRQVLGHU RQO\ D SRUWLRQ
RIWKHIDFWVWKDWKHFRXOGJUDVSDQGJLYHDKDVW\
GHFLVLRQ ,W VKRXOG EH HPSKDVLVHG WKDW WKH
$GMXGLFDWRUKDVDJUHDWHUUHVSRQVLELOLW\WRJLYH
DSURSHUGHFLVLRQE\FDUHIXOFRQVLGHUDWLRQRIDOO
WKH IDFWV DYDLODEOH VLQFH WKH GHFLVLRQ RI WKH
$GMXGLFDWRUKDVWREHJLYHQHIIHFWIRUWKZLWKE\
WKHSDUWLHV7KLVKDVEHHQ VWDWHGLQ&ODXVH
RI WKH ),',& &RQGLWLRQ RI &RQWUDFW 3DUDJUDSK
 RI &ODXVH  VWDWHV WKDW WKH GHFLVLRQ VKDOO EH
ELQGLQJ RQ ERWK SDUWLHV ZKR VKDOO SURPSWO\ JLYH
HIIHFWWRLWXQOHVVDQGXQWLOLVVKDOOEHUHYLVHGLQDQ
DPLFDEOH VHWWOHPHQW RU DQ DUELWUDO DZDUG
6LPLODUO\ &ODXVH  3URFHGXUH IRU
$GMXGLFDWLRQ LQ ,&7$' 6%' 0DMRU &RQWUDFWV
,&7$'6%' VWDWHVWKDW7KHGHFLVLRQRIWKH
$GMXGLFDWRUVKDOOEHGHHPHGILQDODQGELQGLQJRQWKH

79

ENGINEER

SDUWLHV LI QHLWKHU SDUW\ UHIHUV WKH GLVSXWH WR


DUELWUDWLRQ

,WLVSHUWLQHQWWRQRWHWKDWWKHWLPHJLYHQWRWKH
$GMXGLFDWRU LV YHU\ OLPLWHG DQG WKHUHIRUH LW LV
WKH UHVSRQVLELOLW\ RI WKH SDUWLHV QRW WR UHIHU
GLVSXWHV RI D YHU\ FRPSOH[ QDWXUH LQ RQHV
UHIHUHQFH3DUWLHVKDYHWREHYHU\FDUHIXOQRWWR
DOORZ D GLVSXWH WR DFFXPXODWH LQWR D YHU\
FRPSOH[ QDWXUH DV WKH $GMXGLFDWRU ZLOO QRW EH
DEOHWRGHFLGHZLWKLQDYHU\OLPLWHGWLPH


UHTXLUH PRUH WKDQ  GD\V  +RZHYHU WKH


$GMXGLFDWRU FDQ PDNH KLV RZQ LQLWLDWLYH WR
PDNH LQTXLUHV WHVWV DQG VHHN H[SHUW RSLQLRQ LI
KH FRQVLGHUV WKRVH ZLOO KHOS KLP UHDFK D JRRG
GHFLVLRQ

$ QDWXUDO FRQVHTXHQFH RI SRZHU WR WDNH
LQLWLDWLRQ LQ DVFHUWDLQLQJ IDFWV DQG WKH ODZ
H[WHQGWKHSRZHUWRFRQVXOWRUREWDLQVSHFLDOLVW
DGYLFH7KHW\SHRIVSHFLDOLVWWHFKQLFDORUOHJDO
ZLOO GHSHQG RQ WKH VXEMHFW RI WKH GLVSXWH DQG
WKH H[SHUWLVH RI WKH $GMXGLFDWRU 7KH H[SHQVHV
RIWKHVHVLWHYLVLWVLQYHVWLJDWLRQVH[SHUWDGYLFH
DQGRSLQLRQVDUHWREHERUQHE\WKHSDUWLHV


$GMXGLFDWRU0HHWLQJV6LWH9LVLWV
$VFHUWDLQPHQWRI)DFWDQG/DZDQG
6SHFLDOLVWV$GYLFH


$GMXGLFDWLRQDQG1DWXUDO-XVWLFH


$GMXGLFDWLRQ LV D SURFHVV ZKHUHE\ SDUW\
DXWRQRP\ LV UHFRJQL]HG DQG LV QRW DQ HQG LQ
LWVHOI  ,Q D VHQVH $GMXGLFDWRUV WKH GHFLVLRQ
VKDOO EH ELQGLQJ XQWLO WKH GLVSXWH LV ILQDOO\
GHWHUPLQHG E\ OLWLJDWLRQ DUELWUDWLRQ RU
VHWWOHPHQW

7KH ZRUG QDWXUH OLWHUDOO\ PHDQV WKH LQQDWH
WHQGHQF\RUTXDOLW\RIWKLQJVRUREMHFWVDQGWKH
ZRUG MXVW PHDQV XSULJKW IDLU RU SURSHU 7KH
H[SUHVVLRQ QDWXUDO MXVWLFH ZRXOG WKHUHIRUH
PHDQWKHLQQDWHTXDOLW\RIEHLQJIDLU

1DWXUDO MXVWLFH ZKLFK LV DQRWKHU QDPH IRU
FRPPRQ VHQVH MXVWLFH LV  WKH QDWXUDO VHQVH RI
ZKDW LV ULJKW DQG ZURQJ DQG LV WKH QDPH RI
WKRVHSULQFLSOHVZKLFKFRQVWLWXWHWKHPLQLPXP
UHTXLUHPHQW RI MXVWLFH DQG ZLWKRXW DGKHUHQFH
WR ZKLFK MXVWLFH ZRXOG EH D WUDYHVW\ 7KH
SXUSRVH RI IROORZLQJ WKH SULQFLSOHV RI QDWXUDO
MXVWLFH LV SUHYHQWLRQ RI PLVFDUULDJH RI MXVWLFH
DQG KHQFH WKH REVHUYDQFH WKHUHRI LV WKH
SUDJPDWLFUHTXLUHPHQWRIIDLUSOD\LQDFWLRQ,Q
WKH IDPRXV FDVH RI %DQJODGHVK 6WHDPHU $JHQWV
$VVRFLDWLRQ Y %DQJODGHVK +RQ -XGJH  1DUPDQ -
VDLG   )LUVW , WKLQN WKDW WKH SHUVRQ DFFXVHG
VKRXOGNQRZWKHQDWXUHRIWKHDFFXVDWLRQPDGH
VHFRQGO\ WKDW KH VKRXOG EH JLYHQ DQ
RSSRUWXQLW\ WR VWDWH KLV FDVH DQG WKHUHE\ RI
FRXUVH WKDW WKH WULEXQDO VKRXOG DFW LQ JRRG
IDLWK  , GR QRW WKLQN WKDW WKHUH UHDOO\ LV
DQ\WKLQJPRUH>@

7KH DGMXGLFDWLRQ SURFHGXUH SURYLGHV SDUWLHV
WKH QRWLFH RI DGMXGLFDWLRQ PHHWLQJV FRSLHV RI
VWDWHPHQW RI FDVH FRSLHV RI UHVSRQVH WLPHV RI
VLWH YLVLWV PDGH NQRZQ WR SDUWLHV RSSRUWXQLW\
RI IRUZDUGLQJ WKHLU RZQ FDVH RSSRUWXQLW\ RI

7KH$GMXGLFDWRUPD\GHFLGHWRKROGDPHHWLQJ
ZLWK WKH SDUWLHV DQG JLYH DQ RSSRUWXQLW\ WR
H[SODLQ WKHLU RZQ FDVH LQ SHUVRQ DQG VXEPLW
RUDOHYLGHQFH7KHPHHWLQJZLOOIDFLOLWDWH

x 7RUHVROYHDQ\TXHULHVRQMXULVGLFWLRQWKH
LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI WKH 1RWLFH RI
$GMXGLFDWLRQRURWKHUSUHOLPLQDU\PDWWHUV
x 7R FODULI\ DQ\ SRLQWV LQ WKH 6WDWHPHQW RI
&ODLPRUUHVSRQVH
x 7R YLVLW WKH VLWH DQG WR LQVSHFW DQ\
SDUWLFXODUSDUWRIWKH:RUNV
x 7R DUUDQJH IRU WHVWV RU RSHQLQJ XS RI WKH
ZRUNDQGLQVSHFWWKHUHVXOWV
x 7RKHDURUDOHYLGHQFH
x 7R GLVFXVV TXHULHV DQG UHVROYH DQ\
SUREOHPVZKLFKFDQEHVRUWHGRXWTXLFNO\
E\GLVFXVVLRQWKDQE\FRUUHVSRQGHQFH

6LWHYLVLWVDUHHVVHQWLDOIHDWXUHVLQPRVWGLVSXWH
DGMXGLFDWLRQV EHFDXVH DQ\ GLVSXWH ZLOO LQYROYH
TXDOLW\ RI ZRUNPDQVKLS RU VRPHWKLQJ
KDSSHQLQJ LQ WKH FRQVWUXFWLRQ VLWH DQG KHQFH
WKH $GMXGLFDWRU PD\ REVHUYH WKH SUREOHP
KLPVHOI 7KH VLWH PD\ EH XQGHU WKH FRQWURO RI
RQH SDUW\ \HW WKH $GMXGLFDWRU PD\ REWDLQ
QHFHVVDU\ SHUPLVVLRQ IURP WKH RWKHU SDUW\ DV
ZHOO WKXV DYRLGLQJ WKH VLWXDWLRQ LQ ZKLFK RQH
SDUW\WDNHVDGYDQWDJHRIWKHVLWHYLVLWE\WU\LQJ
WR LQIOXHQFH WKH $GMXGLFDWRU ZLWK QHZ
DUJXPHQWV DQG IDFWV WKDW DUH DOLHQ WR WKH RWKHU
SDUW\ IRU ZKLFK WKH RSSRVLQJ SDUW\ FDQ EH
SUHVHQWLIVRGHVLUHG7KH$GMXGLFDWRULVXQGHU
QR REOLJDWLRQ WR DVFHUWDLQ DOO WKH IDFWV DQG WKH
ODZDQGLWZRXOGQRWEHSRVVLEOHIRUKLPWRGR
VR ZLWKLQ WKH UHVWULFWHG WLPH ,W PD\ QRW EH
ZLWKLQWKHSHUPLVVLEOHWLPHIRUGHWDLOHGIRUHQVLF
LQYHVWLJDWLRQVLQWRWKHSUREOHPIRUH[DPSOHWR
WDNH VDPSOHV DQG FRQGXFW WHVWV DW WLPHV PD\

ENGINEER

80

EHLQJKHDUGEHLQJSUHVHQWDQGEHUHSUHVHQWHG
DOO RI ZKLFK DUH LQJUHGLHQWV RI QDWXUDO MXVWLFH
HQWDLOHG LQ WKH SURFHVV DV WKH SDUWLHV FRRSHUDWH
IRU D GHFLVLRQ ZLWKLQ D YHU\ VKRUW SHULRG RI
WLPH 7KH $GMXGLFDWRU DFWV LPSDUWLDOO\
LQGHSHQGHQWO\ DQG IUHH RI DOO ELDV  7KLV LV
DQRWKHUIRUPRI1DWXUDO-XVWLFHVRWKDWKHFRXOG
XSKROG MXVWLFH RQ WKH PDWWHU LQ GLVSXWH ,Q D
VHQVHWKHDGMXGLFDWLRQSURFHVVZKHQFRQGXFWHG
SURSHUO\ SURYLGHV QDWXUDO MXVWLFH IRU WKH
GLVSXWDQWV


UHIHUULQJ WKHLU GLVSXWHV WR DGMXGLFDWLRQ


*HQHUDOO\
LQ
DGMXGLFDWLRQ
QR
OHJDO
UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ LV PDGH E\ HLWKHU SDUW\
7KHUHIRUH WKHUH LV YHU\ OLWWOH OHJDO REMHFWLRQ
WDNHQ E\ WKH SDUWLHV 0RVWO\ LW ZRXOG EH
GHFLGHG E\ WKH IDFWV SUHVHQWHG E\ WKH SDUWLHV
7KH DXWKRU DOVR EHOLHYHV WKDW WKLV SURSRVDO KDV
PDGH D UHYROXWLRQDU\ FKDQJH LQ UHVROYLQJ
FRQVWUXFWLRQ GLVSXWHV DQG WKH SURIHVVLRQDOV
ZKR DUH LQYROYHG LQ WKH FRQVWUXFWLRQ LQGXVWU\
KDYH WR EH WUDLQHG VXIILFLHQWO\ WR KDQGOH
DGMXGLFDWLRQVRWKDWDOOSDUWLHVFRQFHUQHGFRXOG
VDYHDVXEVWDQWLDOWLPHDQGPRQH\LQUHVROYLQJ
FRQVWUXFWLRQ GLVSXWHV 7KH FRRSHUDWLRQ RI DOO
SDUWLHV WR WKH FRQWUDFW LV D PXVW WR HQVXUH D
VXFFHVVIXOIXWXUHIRUFRQVWUXFWLRQDGMXGLFDWLRQ


&RQFOXVLRQ


7KH$GMXGLFDWRULVLQFKDUJHRIWKHDGMXGLFDWLRQ
DQGKDVDFRQWUDFWZLWKWKHSDUWLHVXQGHUZKLFK
KHKDVDQ REOLJDWLRQWRUHDFKDGHFLVLRQRQ WKH
GLVSXWH ZLWKLQ D IL[HG WLPH IUDPH  ,Q RUGHU WR
DFKLHYH WKH GHVLUHG UHVXOW SDUWLHV VKRXOG
HQGHDYRXU WR SURYLGH WKH $GMXGLFDWRU DOO
QHFHVVDU\ LQIRUPDWLRQ DYDLODEOH UHSRUWV WHVWV
RI LQYHVWLJDWLRQ DVVLVWDQFH DQG FRRSHUDWLRQ ,W
LV D PDQGDWRU\ UHTXLUHPHQW WKDW DOO UHOHYDQW
GRFXPHQWV EH FRSLHG WR ERWK VLGHV RUDO
LQIRUPDWLRQWREHFRQILUPHGZLWKGRFXPHQWDU\
HYLGHQFH  7KH $GMXGLFDWRU VKRXOG DOVR ZRUN
ZLWKLQ WKH WHUPV RI UHIHUHQFH UXOHV DQG WKH
SURFHGXUH XQGHU ZKLFK KLV DSSRLQWPHQW KDV
EHHQ PDGH ,I D SDUW\ FRQVLGHUV D SDUWLFXODU
GHFLVLRQ LV XQUHDVRQDEOH RU RXWVLGH WKH
DXWKRULW\RIWKH$GMXGLFDWRUKHFRXOGPDNHKLV
IRUPDOREMHFWLRQDQGWKH$GMXGLFDWRUVKDOOGHDO
ZLWK WKH REMHFWLRQ LQ D IDLU DQG UHDVRQDEOH
PDQQHU,IHLWKHUSDUW\IDLOVWRFRPSO\ZLWKWKH
GLUHFWLRQ RI WKH $GMXGLFDWRU WKH $GMXGLFDWRU
PD\FRQWLQXHLQWKHEHVWZD\SRVVLEOHDQGDQ\
VXFK IDLOXUH ZLOO EH GHWULPHQWDO WR WKH SDUW\
ZKRIDLOVWRFRPSO\,IDQ$GMXGLFDWRUUHFHLYHV
RU GLVFRYHUV LQIRUPDWLRQ DIWHU WKH VWLSXODWHG
FORVLQJ GDWH LW LV ZLWKLQ KLV MXULVGLFWLRQ WR XVH
VXFK LQIRUPDWLRQ LQYDULDEO\ ZLWK DQ DJUHHG
H[WHQVLRQ 2QFH WKH $GMXGLFDWRU KDV UHDFKHG
DQGGHOLYHUHGKLVGHFLVLRQKHKDVFRPSOHWHGKLV
WDVN ,I HLWKHU SDUW\ LV QRW VDWLVILHG ZLWK WKH
GHFLVLRQVXFKSDUW\PD\SURFHHGLQWHUPVRIWKH
ODZWRDUELWUDWLRQRU OLWLJDWLRQWKXVRQFHDJDLQ
HQMR\LQJDQRWKHUIRUPRI1DWXUDO-XVWLFHLHWKH
ULJKWRIDSSHDOLQJ

7KH DGMXGLFDWLRQ SURFHVV LV D QHZ SURFHVV
ZKLFK KDV EHHQ LQWURGXFHG WR WKH FRQVWUXFWLRQ
LQGXVWU\ :KHQ FRPSDULQJ ZLWK WKH FRVW RI
DUELWUDWLRQ WKH FRVW RI DGMXGLFDWLRQ LV YHU\
PXFK OHVV ,W DOVR VKRXOG EH HPSKDVLVHG WKDW D
VSHHGLHU GHFLVLRQ FRXOG EH REWDLQHG E\ SDUWLHV

5HIHUHQFHV


 0DULFN ) 0DVWHUV HW DO &RPSOHWH *XLGH WR


&RQIOLFW5HVROXWLRQQG(GLWLRQ 6ZHHW 0D[HOO 
3DJH

 -RKQ 7LPSVRQ DQG %ULDQ 7RWWHUGLOO $GMXGLFDWLRQ
IRU $UFKLWHFWV DQG (QJLQHHUV 7KRPDV 7HOIRUG
3DJH

 +RUQE\ $6 HWHO 2[IRUG $GYDQFH 'LFWLRQDU\
2[IRUG8QLYHUVLW\3UHVVWK(GLWLRQSDJH

 LELG

 6WHSKHQ 3 5REELQV 2UJDQL]DWLRQDO %HKDYLRXU
(OHYHQWK (GLWLRQ 3UHQKDOO&RPURELQELQVG 
3DJH

 ,ELG  

 :HGGLNNDUD &KLWUD 7KH ,PSDFW RI 3URIHVVLRQDO
&XOWXUH RQ 'LVSXWH 5HVROXWLRQ LQ 7KH %XLOGLQJ
,QGXVWULHV RI $XVWUDOLD DQG 6UL /DQND  6WDQGHQ
3DJH

 *HRIIUH\ +DZNHU -RKQ 8II &KDUOHV 7LPPV
$UELWUDWLRQ3UDFWLFHQG(GLWLRQ7KRPDV7HOIRUG
3DJH

 KWWSZZZILGLFRUJ

 ,&7$' 6WDQGDUG %LGGLQJ 'RFXPHQW 
3URFXUHPHQW RI :RUNV )LUVW (GLWLRQ ,&7$'
3DJH

 ,ELG  

 ,ELG  

 7DSDVK *DQ &KRXGKXU\ 3HQXPEUD RI 1DWXUDO
-XVWLFH 6HFRQG (GLWLRQ (DVWHUQ /DZ +RXVH
3DJH

81

ENGINEER

You might also like