Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Fred Eidlin Presentaddtion Magreg 2014
Fred Eidlin Presentaddtion Magreg 2014
2014
Ukrainian crisis
Involves much more than the issues that set it off.
Question of whether or not Ukraines current leaders
justified in delaying the signing of an Association
Agreement with the European Union now seems almost
irrelevant.
Crisis has served to crystallize the visceral disgust of
many Ukrainians for the regime under which they have
been living.
Also led to the eruption of powerful latent tensions
endemic to the Ukrainian polity.
Alarming!
More alarmed than I have ever been since I started
following events in Ukraine in 2004.
Can't see happy way out.
Hope peaceful, stable solution can somehow be reached.
Mikhail Gorbachev has suggested, Vladimir Putin and
Barack Obama should take a resolute step towards
helping Ukraine return to the path of peaceful
development.
Seems out of the question. Why?
Do the math
Ukraine's hard currency reserves fell from $35bn in April
to around $20bn in November.
Below three months' import cover economists say
needed to ensure the stability of the national currency.
Should have already been sharp and extremely painful
devaluation of at least 15%, but government propping
up Hryvna. Country has effectively run out of cash-living on its credit cards
Do the math
Facing heavy bond redemption schedule--several billion
IMF loans last year 7 billion maturing this year.
International rating agencies downgrading Ukraine.
EU offered only 1bn as reward for signing, With high
cost of EU integration, higher prices for Russian gas,
huge unpaid gas bills, and reduced trade with Russia,
Prime Minister Azarov said: "We were told that Ukraine
could count on 1bn. 1bn is nothing. One can say that
it is a pittance to a beggar"
Motivations of EU
Two faces of EU: Hardnosed pragmatism and moralistic-ideological
Eastern Partnership driven mainly by moralistic-ideological, led
by anti-Russian Polish and Swedish proponents.
Skepticism in EU about Ukraine, with its huge problems.
Association Agreement very vague about how they will be solved.
EU unable to provide serious support in light of its well-known
problems. Euro skepticism widespread, UK thinking about leaving
Unsolved problems Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Bulgaria,
Romania. What is EU capable of doing in Ukraine?
Ideological conspiracy?
EU and US drivers of project dont like Yanukovych, are antiRussian, and anti-Customs Union. Backing coup detat in
Ukraine, either to help the Ukrainian people, or economic and
geopolitical motivations.
Planners surely must have realized version of Association
Agreement presented no-win situation to Ukrainian leadership.
Expected fierce opposition either if Yanukovych signed or, a bit
later is he did NOT sign. (When severe consequences of
Agreement hit Ukraine, especially Eastern Ukraine). Either
way, they will get rid of Yanukovych and his regime, and bring
in a pro-Western regime.
Evidence of conspiracy
Why the anger and impatience regarding delaying the
signing?
In normal, healthy democracy, it is normal for leaders to
make such judgments, and for the voters to judge these
judgments at next election.
Under normal regime, such action would be debated by the
opposition in the legislatureopposition would criticize the
action in the media and in travelling around the country.
Wouldnt democratic debate of pros and cons of Association
be healthy? Maybe even a referendum in several years, such
as planned in UK
Russian aims
At Russia-EU Summit, Putin suggested free trade zone
between EU and the Customs Unionnot new idea
Aim of Customs Union never exclusive, never as
competitor with EU.
Aim: organize Eurasian space prior to integration with
EU
Major implications for two of Russia's most important
foreign policy priorities.