Bai Tap XSTK

ThS.
NGUYN TRUNG NG
Bi tp
XC SUT THNG K
TP. H CH MINH - 2013
Chng 0. GII TCH T HP

0.1. Tm tt l thuyt
0.1.1. Quy tc m
Ta ch kho st tp hu hn: X = {x1 , x2 , ..., x n } , X c n phn t,
k hiu X = n.
0.1.2. Cng thc cng
Cho X, Y l hai tp hu hn v X Y = , ta c X Y = X + Y
Tng qut: Nu cho k tp hu hn X1, X 2,..., Xk sao cho Xi Yj = , i j ,
ta c
X1 X 2 ... Xk = X1 + X 2 + ... + X k
0.1.3. Cng thc nhn

Cho X, Y l hai tp hu hn, nh ngha tp tch nh sau
X Y =
{(x, y ) / x X y Y } , ta c
X Y = X Y
Tng qut: Nu cho n tp hu hn X1, X 2,..., Xk , ta c

X1 X 2 ... Xk = X1 X 2 ... Xk
0.1.4. Quy tc cng

Gi s mt cng vic c th thc hin mt trong k phng php, trong
Phng php 1 c n1 cch thc hin,
Phng php 2 c n2 cch thc hin,,
Phng php k c nk cch thc hin,
v hai phng php khc nhau khng c cch thc hin chung.
Khi , ta c n1 + n2 + ... + nk cch thc hin cng vic.
0.1.5. Quy tc nhn
Gi s mt cng vic c th thc hin tun t theo k bc, trong
Bc 1 c n1 cch thc hin,
1
Bc 2 c n2 cch thc hin,,

Bc k c nk cch thc hin,
Khi , ta c n1 n2 ... nk cch thc hin cng vic.
0.1.6. Gii tch t hp
a. Chnh hp
nh ngha: Chnh hp chp k t n phn t l mt b c k th t gm k phn t
khc nhau ly t n phn t cho.
S chnh hp: S chnh hp chp k t n phn t, k hiu l : Ank
Cng thc tnh :
Ank = n(n 1)...(n k + 1) =
n!
(n k ) !
b. Chnh hp lp
nh ngha: Chnh hp lp chp k t n phn t l mt b c k th t gm k phn t
khng cn khc nhau ly t n phn t cho.
S chnh hp lp: S chnh hp lp chp k t n phn t k, hiu l : Ank
Cng thc tnh: Ank = n k
c. Hon v
nh ngha: Mt hon v t n phn t l mt b c k th t gm n phn t khc nhau
cho.
S hon v: S hon v t n phn t, k hiu l Pn
Cng thc tnh:
Pn = n ! = (n 1)(n 2)...(1)
d. T hp
nh ngha: Mt t hp chp k t n phn t l mt tp con gm k phn t ly t n
phn t.
S t hp : S t hp chp k t n phn t k hiu l :C nk
Cng thc tnh:
C nk =
n!
k ! (n k ) !
2
e. Nh thc Newton
n
(a + b)n = C nka n kb k
k =0
n
(1 + x )n = C nk x k
k =0
Bi tp mu
Bi 1. m chung kt hoa khi sinh vin thnh ph c 12 th sinh, chn 3 th sinh trao gii:
Hoa khi, khi 1, khi 2. C bao nhiu cch chn ?
Gii
Nhn xt: th sinh c trao gii, c chn t 12 th sinh, v c th t (A, B, C cng
c trao gii, nhng trng hp A l hoa khi, khc trng hp B l hoa khi).
Suy ra mi cch chn l mt chnh hp chp 3 t 12 phn t.
3
Vy s cch chn l: A12
= 12.11.10 = 1320 .
Bi 2. Gi s c mt v thn c quyn phn pht ngy sinh cho con ngi, c bao nhiu cch
phn b ngy sinh cho 10 em b ra i trong nm 1999 ti 1 khu tp th ca cng nhn vin
chc.
Gii
Nhn xt: Mi ngy sinh ca mt em b l 1 trong 365 ngy ca nm 1999, nn cc
ngy sinh c th trng nhau.
Suy ra mi cch phn b 10 ngy sinh l mt chnh hp lp chp 10 t 365 phn t.
10
Vy s cch phn b ngy sinh l: A 10
365 = 365
Bi 3. c 3 b sch:
Ton cao cp C
: 6 tp,
Kinh t quc t
: 2 tp,
Xc sut thng k : 3 tp,

c t ln gi sch. C bao nhiu cch sp:
a) Tu ;
b) Cc tp sch c t theo tng b.
Gii
3
a) Nhn xt: 3 b sch c tt c 11 tp; t ln gi sch, mi cch sp l hon v ca 11

phn t.
Suy ra s cch sp tu : P11 = 11!
b) Nhn xt:
Xem mi b sch l mt phn t.

c 3 ! cch sp xp 3 phn t ny.
Cc cp sch trong mi b sch xo trn vi nhau.

: 6!
Ton cao cp C
Kinh t lng
: 2!
Xc sut thng k
: 3!
Suy ra: s cch sp xp 3 b sch theo tng b l: 3!6!2!3!

Bi 4. Gii bng ngoi hng Anh c 20 i bng thi u vng trn, c bao nhiu trn u
c t chc nu:
a) Thi u vng trn 1 lt.
b) Thi u vng trn 2 lt.
Gii
a) Nhn xt: Mi trn u ng vi vic chn 2 i chn t 20 i. Suy ra mi trn u l
mt t hp chp 2 t 20 phn t.
S mi trn u c t chc l :
C220 =
20!
= 190 trn
2!18!
b) Nhn xt: Mi trn u ng vi vic chn 2 i chn t 20 i. (i ch, i khch).

Suy ra mi trn u l mt chnh hp chp 2 t 20 phn t.
Vy s trn u l :
A 220 =
20!
= 380 trn
18!
Bi tp rn luyn
Bi 1. Trong mt lp gm 30 sinh vin, cn chn ra ba sinh vin lm lp trng, lp ph
v th qu. Hi c tt c bao nhiu cch bu chn ?
Bi 2. C bao nhiu cch xp 10 ngi ngi thnh hng ngang sao cho A v B ngi cnh
nhau.
4
Bi 3. Mt hp ng 6 bi trng v 4 bi en.
a) C tt c bao nhiu cch ly ra 5 bi ?
b) C bao nhiu cch ly ra 5 bi trong c 2 bi trng ?
Bi 4. Trong mt nhm ng vin gm 7 nam v 3 n,
a) c bao nhiu cch thnh lp mt y ban gm 3 ngi ?
b) c bao nhiu cch thnh lp mt y ban gm 3 ngi trong c ng 1 n ?
c) c bao nhiu cch thnh lp mt y ban gm 3 ngi trong c t nht 1 n ?
Bi 5. Cho cc ch s 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Hi t cc ch s ny:
a) Lp c bao nhiu s c 4 ch s khc nhau trong nht thit c mt ch s 5?
b) Lp c bao nhiu s c 7 ch s trong ch s 5 c mt ng 3 ln cn cc ch s
khc c mt khng qu mt ln?
Chng 1. I CNG V XC SUT

1.1. Tm tt l thuyt
1.1.1. nh ngha xc sut
Xt bin c A vi khng gian mu tng ng, ta c nh ngha c in
P(A) =
trong A v ln lt l s phn t ca A v ca v nh ngha bng tn sut

P(A) =
So trng hp thuan li cho A

So trng hp xay ra
1.1.2. Tnh cht c bn ca xc sut

a) 0 P(A) 1, P() = 0, P() = 1 .
b) Cng thc cng: Cho h bin c A1 , A 2 ,..., A n xung khc vi nhau tng i mt
(ngha l A i A j = , khi i j ), ta c
P ( A 1 + A 2 + ... + A n ) = P ( A 1 ) + P ( A 2 ) + ... + P ( A n ) .
c) Vi A, B l hai bin c bt k, ta c
P ( A + B ) = P(A) + P(B) P(AB) .
d) P(A) = 1 P(A)
1.1.3. Xc sut c iu kin
Xc sut bin c A xy ra khi bit bin c B xy ra
P ( A B) =
P(AB)
P(B)
vi P(B) > 0 , v ta c cng thc nhn

P(AB) = P ( A B ) P(B) = P ( B A ) P(A) .
Khi bin c B xy ra hay khng xy ra khng nh hng n vic bin c A xy ra hay

khng xy ra, ta ni A, B l hai bin c c lp v khi
6
P(AB) = P(A)P(B) .
Ta c cng thc nhn tng qut,
) (
P ( A1 A 2 ...A n ) = P ( A1 ) P A 2 A1 P A 3 A1 A 2 ...P A n A1 A 2 ...A n 1
Khi A1 , A 2 , , A n l h cc bin c c lp, ngha l mt bin c xy ra hay khng

xy ra khng nh hng n vic xy ra mt hay nhiu bin c khc, ngha l vi bt k h
hu hn cc bin c A i , A i , , A i , ta c
1
( ) ( )
( )
P A i1 A i2 ...A ik = P A i1 P A i2 ...P A ik .
1.1.4. Cng thc xc sut ton phn cng thc Bayes

Cho B1 , B2 , ..., Bn l h y cc bin c, ngha l
i) BiB j =
ii) B1 + B2 + ... + Bn =
vi A l mt bin c bt k, ta c
a) Cng thc xc sut ton phn
P(A) = P ( A |B1 ) P ( B1 ) + P ( A |Bn ) P ( Bn ) + ... + P ( A |Bn ) P ( Bn )
b) Cng thc Bayes
P ( Bk | A ) =
P ( A |Bk ) P ( Bk )
P (A)
k = 1, 2, ..., n .
1.1.5. Dy php th Bernoulli

Khi thc hin n ln php th c lp nhau v gi X l s ln bin c A xy ra trong n
ln thc hin php th, th bin c ( X = k ) ch trng hp bin c A xy ra ng k ln
trong n ln thc hin php th, ta c
P ( X = k ) = Cnk p k (1 p)n k ,
k = 0,1, 2,.., n
vi p = P(A) . Ta k hiu X B(n; p) .

1.2. Bi tp mu
Bi 1. Cho A, B, C l ba bin c. Chng minh
7
P(A + B + C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) P(AB) P(AC) P(BC) + P(ABC)
Gii
Ta c
P ( A + B + C ) = P ( A + B ) + C = P(A + B) + P(C) P [ (A + B)C] ,
P(A + B) = P(A) + P(B) P(AB) ,
P [ (A + B)C] = P [ AC + BC] = P(AC) + P(BC) P(ABC)
nn
P ( A + B + C ) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) P(AB) P(AC) P(BC) + P(ABC).
1
3
Bi 2. Cho P(A) = , P(B) =
1
3
v P(A + B) = .
2
4
Tnh P(AB) , P(AB) , P(A + B) , P(AB) v P(AB) .

Gii
Do
P(A + B) = P(A) + P(B) P(AB) ,
ta suy ra
P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) P(A + B) =
1
.
12
Do AB = A + B , nn
( )
P AB = P A + B = 1 P ( A + B ) =
1
.
4
Tng t, v A + B = AB ta suy ra
P A + B = 1 P ( AB ) =
11
.
12
Xut pht t ng thc A = AB + AB v v AB , AB l cc bin c xung khc, ta c
( )
P(A) = P ( AB ) + P AB v do
( )
P AB = P(A) P ( AB ) =
1
.
4
Tng t, ta c
( )
P AB = P(B) P ( AB ) =
5
.
12
Bi 3. T l ngi mc bnh tim trong mt vng dn c l 9%, mc bnh huyt p l 12%,

mc c hai bnh l 7%. Chn ngu nhin mt ngi trong vng. Tnh xc sut ngi
a) B bnh tim hay b bnh huyt p.
b) Khng b bnh tim cng khng b bnh huyt p.
c) Khng b bnh tim hay khng b bnh huyt p.
d) B bnh tim nhng khng b bnh huyt p.
e) Khng b bnh tim nhng b bnh huyt p.
Gii
Xt cc bin c A : nhn c ngi mc bnh tim,
B : nhn c ngi mc bnh huyt p,
Ta c P(A) = 0, 09 ; P(B) = 0,12 ; P(AB) = 0, 07 .
a) Bin c nhn c ngi b bnh tim hay b bnh huyt p l A+B, vi
P(A + B) = P(A) + P(B) P(AB) = 0, 09 + 0,12 0, 07 = 0,14.
b) Bin c nhn c ngi khng b bnh tim cng khng b bnh huyt p l A.B ,
vi
P(A.B) = P(A + B) = 1 P(A + B) = 1 0,14 = 0, 86.
c) Bin c nhn c ngi khng b bnh tim hay khng b bnh huyt p l A + B ,
vi
P(A + B) = P(AB) = 1 P(AB) = 1 0, 07 = 0, 93.
d) Bin c nhn c ngi b bnh tim nhng khng b bnh huyt p l A.B , vi
9
P(A.B) = P(A) P(AB) = 0, 09 0, 07 = 0, 02.
e) Bin c nhn c ngi khng b bnh tim nhng b bnh huyt p l A.B , vi
P(A.B) = P(B) P(AB) = 0,12 0, 07 = 0, 05.
Bi 4. Theo di d bo thi tit trn i truyn hnh (nng, sng m, ma) v so snh vi
thi tit thc t xy ra, ta c bng thng k sau
D bo
Nng Sng m
Ma
Thc t
Nng
30
Sng m
20
Ma
10
20
ngha l c 30 ln d bo nng, tri nng, 4 ln d bo nng, tri sng m; 10 ln d bo

nng, tri ma, v.v
a) Tnh xc sut d bo tri nng ca i truyn hnh.
b) Tnh xc sut d bo ca i truyn hnh l ng thc t.
c) c tin d bo l tri nng. Tnh xc sut thc t th tri ma ? tri sng m ?
tri nng ?
Gii
Xt cc bin c A : i truyn hnh d bo tri nng, A1 : Thc t tri nng.
B : i truyn hnh d bo tri sng m, B1 : Thc t tri sng m.
C : i truyn hnh d bo tri ma, C1 : Thc t tri ma.
a) Do trong 100 ln theo di d bo i truyn hnh, ta thy c 30 + 4 + 10 ln d bo
tri nng nn xc sut d bo tri nng ca i truyn hnh l
P(A) =
30 + 4 + 10
= 0, 44 .
100
10
b) Do trong 100 ln theo di, ta thy c 30 + 20 + 20 d bo ca i truyn hnh ng

so vi thc t nn xc sut d bo ca i truyn hnh ng so vi thc t l
30 + 20 + 20
= 0, 7.
100
c) Do trong 44 ln i truyn hnh d bo l tri nng c 30 ln thc t tri nng, 4 ln

thc t tri sng m v 10 ln thc t tri ma nn xc sut thc t th tri ma, tri
sng m, tri nng ln lt l
30
= 0, 682,
44
4
= 0, 091,
P B1 A =
44
10
P C1 A =
= 0, 227.
44
P A1 A =
Bi 5. Bn qun mt s cui cng trong s in thoi cn gi (s in thoi gm 6 ch s)

v bn chn s cui cng ny mt cch ngu nhin. Tnh xc sut bn gi ng s in
thoi ny m khng phi th qu 3 ln. Nu bit s cui cng l s l th xc sut ny l bao
nhiu ?
Gii
Gi A i l bin c gi ng ln th i, i = 1, 2, 3 . Ta c A1 l bin c gi ng khi
th mt ln , A1 A 2 l bin c gi ng khi phi th hai ln v A1 A 2 A 3 l bin c gi
ng khi phi th ba ln. Do bin c gi ng khi khng phi th qu ba ln l
A = A 1 + A 1 A 2 + A 1 A 2 A 3 vi
P(A) = P(A 1 + A1 A 2 + A 1 A 2 A 3 )
= P(A 1 ) + P(A1 ) P(A 2 | A1 ) + P(A 1 ) P(A 2 | A 1 ) P(A 3 | A 1 A 2 )
=
1
9 1 9 8 1
3
+
+
=
= 0, 3.
10 10 9 10 9 8 10
Khi bit s cui cng l s l th khi cc s chn quay ch c(n gii hn li trong
5 trng hp (s l) nn cng thc trn tr thnh
P(A) =
1 4 1 4 3 1 3
+ + = = 0, 6 .
5 5 4 5 4 3 5
11
Bi 6. C hai hp ng bi :
- Hp H1 ng 20 bi trong c 5 bi v 15 bi trng,
- Hp H2 ng 15 bi trong c 6 bi v 9 bi trng.
Ly mt bi hp H1 , b vo hp H2 , trn u ri ly ra mt bi. Tnh xc sut nhn
c bi ? bi trng ?
Gii
Xt cc bin c
A : Bi nhn c t hp H2 l bi ,
B : Bi t hp H1 b sang hp H2 l bi .
Do gi thuyt, ta c
P ( B) =
5
1
7
6
3
;P AB =
= ; P ( A B) =
= .
20 4
16
16 8
T , suy ra xc sut nhn c bi
P(A) = P ( A B ) P(B) + P A B P(B) =
25
,
64
v xc sut nhn c bi trng l

P(A) = 1 P(A) =
39
.
64
Bi 7. Mt cp tr sinh i c th do cng mt trng (sinh i tht) hay do hai trng khc

nhau sinh ra (sinh i gi). Cc cp sinh i tht lun lun c cng gii tnh. Cc cp sinh
i gi th gii tnh ca mi a c lp vi nhau v c xc sut l 0,5. Thng k cho thy
34% cp sinh i l trai; 30% cp sinh i l gi v 36% cp sinh i c gii tnh khc nhau.
a) Tnh t l cp sinh i tht.
b) Tm t l cp sinh i tht trong s cc cp sinh i c cng gii tnh.
Gii
12
Xt cc bin c
A : nhn c cp sinh i tht,
B : nhn c cp sinh i c cng gii tnh.
Do cc cp sinh i tht lun lun c cng gii tnh nn
P (B A ) = 1 ,
vi cc cp sinh i gi th gii tnh ca mi a c lp nhau v c xc sut l 0.5 nn
P B A = P B A = 0, 5 ,
v do thng k trn cc cp sinh i nhn c th
( )
P ( B ) = 0, 3 + 0, 34 = 0, 64 v P B = 0, 36 .
a) Do cng thc xc sut ton phn,
( ) ( )
= P ( B A ) P ( A ) + P ( B A ) 1 P ( A )
= P ( B A ) + P ( B A ) P ( B A ) P ( A ) ,
P(B) = P ( B A ) P ( A ) + P B A P A
ta suy ra
P (A) =
P(B) P B A
P B A P B A
0, 64 0, 5
= 0, 28 .
1 0, 5
b) Do cng thc Bayes,
P AB =
P B A P(A)
P(B)
0, 28
= 0, 4375 .
0, 64
Bi 8. Mt trung tm chn on bnh dng mt php kim nh T. Xc sut mt ngi

n trung tm m c bnh l 0,8. Xc sut ngi khm c bnh khi php kim nh
dng tnh l 0,9 v xc sut ngi khm khng c bnh khi php kim nh m tnh l
0,5. Tnh cc xc sut
a) Php kim nh l dng tnh,
13
b) Php kim nh cho kt qu ng.

Gii
Xt cc bin c
A : nhn c ngi c bnh,
B : nhn c ngi c kim nh dng tnh.
Do gi thit, ta c
P ( A ) = 0, 8 ; P A B = 0, 9 ; P A B = 0, 5 .
a) Do cng thc xc sut ton phn,
( ) ( )
= P ( A B ) P ( B ) + P ( A B ) 1 P ( B )
= P ( A B) + P ( A B) P ( A B ) P ( B) ,
P ( A ) = P ( A B) P ( B) + P A B P B
m P ( A B ) = 1 P ( A B ) = 0, 5 , nn xc sut php kim nh l dng tnh cho bi

P ( B) =
P (A) P A B
P A B P A B
0, 8 0, 5
= 0, 75 .
0, 9 0, 5
b) Xc sut php kim nh cho kt qu ng l
( )
) ( )
P AB + AB = P ( AB ) + P AB = P A B P ( B ) + P A B P B = 0, 7125.
Bi 9. Mt dy chuyn lp rp nhn cc chi tit t hai nh my khc nhau. T l chi tit do

nh my th nht cung cp l 60%, ca nh my th hai l 40%. T l chnh phm ca nh
my th nht l 90%, ca nh my th hai l 85%. Ly ngu nhin mt chi tit trn dy
chuyn v thy rng n tt. Tm xc sut chi tit do nh my th nht sn xut.
Gii
Xt cc bin c
A : nhn c sn phm tt,
14
Bi : nhn c sn phm do nh my th i sn xut, vi i = 1, 2 . T gi thuyt, ta c
P(B1 ) =
60
40
= 0, 6 ; P(B2 ) =
= 0, 4 ;
100
100
P A B1 = 0, 9 ; P A B2 = 0, 85 .
Do B1 , B2 to thnh h y cc bin c nn t cng thc Bayes, ta c xc sut

chi tit tt nhn c trn dy chuyn l do nh my th nht sn xut
P B1 A =
P A B1 P ( B1 )
P A B1 P ( B1 ) + P A B2 P ( B2 )
= 0, 614 .
Bi 10. Trong mt vng dn c, c 100 ngi th c 30 ngi ht thuc l. Bit t l ngi

b vim hng trong s ngi ht thuc l l 60%, trong s ngi khng ht thuc l l 30%.
Khm ngu nhin mt ngi v thy ngi b vim hng. Tm xc sut ngi ht
thuc l. Nu ngi khng b vim hng th xc sut ngi ht thuc l l bao
nhiu.
Gii
Khm ngu nhin mt ngi trong vng dn c, xt cc bin c
A : nhn c ngi ht thuc l,
B : nhn c ngi b vim hng.
Gi thit cho
P ( A ) = 0, 3 ; P B A = 0, 6 v P B A = 0, 3 .
Do ngi b vim hng nn t cng thc Bayes, ta suy ra xc sut ngi

ht thuc l l
P AB =
P B A P (A)
) ( )
P B A P (A) + P B A P A
0, 6 0, 3
= 0, 4615.
0, 6 0, 3 + 0, 3 0, 7
Khi ngi khng b vim hng th xc sut anh ta ht thuc l l

15
P AB =
P B A P (A)
) ( )
P B A P (A) + P B A P A
0, 4 0, 3
= 0,1967.
0, 4 0, 3 + 0, 7 0, 7
Bi 11. Mt thit b gm 3 cm chi tit, mi cm b hng khng nh hng g n cc cm

khc v ch cn mt cm b hng th thit b ngng hot ng. Xc sut cm th nht b
hng trong ngy l 0,1, cm th hai l 0,05 v cm th ba l 0,15. Tm xc sut thit b
khng ngng hot ng trong ngy.
Gii
Xt cc bin c
A i : Cm chi tit th i b hng, vi i = 1, 2, 3 ,
B : thit b khng ngng hot ng.

Do gi thit, ta c
P ( A 1 ) = 0,1 , P ( A 2 ) = 0, 05 , v P ( A 3 ) = 0,15 .
Do A1 , A 2 v A 3 l h cc bin c c lp nn xc sut thit b khng ngng hot

ng l
( ) ( ) ( ).
P ( B ) = P A1 A 2 A 3 = P A1 P A 2 P A 3
= 0, 9 0, 95 0, 85 = 0, 7267.
Bi 12. Mt ngi bn bia vi xc sut bn trng l p = 0, 7 .

a) Bn lin tip 3 pht. Tnh xc sut c t nht 1 ln trng bia.
b) Hi phi bn t nht my ln c xc sut t nht mt ln trng bia 0, 9 .
Gii
Gi X l s vin n trng bia trong 3 pht. Ta c X B ( n; p ) , vi n = 3 v p = 0, 7 .
a) Xc xut c t nht mt ln trng bia khi bn lin tip 3 pht l
16
P ( X 1) = 1 P ( X = 0 )
= 1 C03 (0, 7)0 (1 0, 7)30
= 1 (0, 3)3 = 0, 973.
b) Gi n l s ln bn xc sut t nht mt ln trng bia 0.9 . Do X B ( n; p ) vi

p = 0.7 , nn xc sut c t nht 1 ln trng bia trong n pht l
P ( X 1) = 1 P ( X = 0 )
= 1 C0n (0, 7)0 (1 0, 7)n 0
= 1 (0, 3)n .
P ( X 1) 0.9 , ta gii bt phng trnh

1 (0, 3)n 0, 9 ,
hay tng ng
(0, 3)n 0,1 .
Ly lgart hai v ca bt phng trnh trn, ta c

n ln(0, 3) ln(0,1) .
Do ln(0.3) < 0 , ta suy ra

n
ln(0.1)
1, 91 .
ln(0.3)
Vy, cn phi bn t nht 2 pht n xc sut c t nht 1 ln trng bia 0, 9 .

Bi 13. T l ph phm ca mt l hng (ln) l 1%. T l hng ny, ly ra n sn phm. Hi
n t nht phi l bao nhiu xc sut nhn c t nht mt ph phm ln hn 0, 95.
Gii
Gi X l s ph phm nhn c trong n sn phm ly ra t l hng. Ta c
X B ( n; 0, 01) . Khi xc sut nhn c t nht mt sn phm hng l
P ( X 1) = 1 P ( X = 0 )
= 1 C0n (0, 01)0 (1 0, 01)n 0 = 1 (0, 99)n .
17
tm n sao cho xc sut nhn c t nht mt sn phm hng ln hn 0, 95 , ngha l

P ( X 1) > 0, 95 , ta gii bt phng trnh
1 (0, 99)n > 0, 95 .
T , suy ra n > 298, 073 . Vy cn phi ly ra t nht 299 sn phm xc sut trong
c t nht mt sn phm hng ln hn 0, 95 .
Bi 14. Trong mt l thuc (rt nhiu) vi xc sut nhn c thuc hng l p = 0,1 . Ly
ngu nhin 3 l kim tra. Tnh xc sut
a) C 3 l u hng,
b) C 2 l hng v 1 l tt,
c) C 1 l hng v 2 l tt,
d) C 3 l u tt.
Gii
Gi X l s l hng trong 3 l ly ra kim tra. Ta c X B ( 3; 0,1) . Do xc sut
a) c 3 l u hng
P ( X = 3) = C33 (0,1)3 (1 0,1)0 = (0,1)3 = 0, 001 ,
b) c hai l hng v mt l tt
P ( X = 2 ) = C23 (0,1)2 (0, 9)32 = 3 0, 01 0, 9 = 0, 027 ,
c) c mt l hng v hai l tt
P ( X = 1) = C13 (0,1)1 (0, 9)31 = 3 0,1 0, 81 = 0, 243 ,
d) c 3 l u tt
P ( X = 0 ) = C03 (0,1)0 (1 0,1)3 = (0, 9)3 = 0, 729 .
18
1.3. Bi tp rn luyn
Bi ton v biu din cc bin c.
Bi 1. Kim tra 3 sn phm. Gi A k l bin c sn phm th k tt. Hy trnh by cc cch
biu din qua A k v qua gin Venn cc bin c sau y :
A : tt c u xu,
B : c t nht mt sn phm xu,
C : c t nht mt sn phm tt,
D : khng phi tt c sn phm u tt,
E : c ng mt sn phm xu,
F : c t nht 2 sn phm tt.
Bi 2. Ba ngi, mi ngi bn mt pht. Gi A i l bin c th i bn trng. Hy biu din
qua A i cc bin c sau :
A : ch c ngi th nht bn trng,
B : ngi th nht bn trng v ngi th hai bn trt,
D : c 3 ngi u bn trng,
E : c t nht 2 ngi bn trng,
F : ch c 2 ngi bn trng,
G : khng ai bn trng,
H : khng c hn 2 ngi bn trng,
I : ngi th nht bn trng, hoc ngi th hai v ngi th ba cng bn trng,
K : ngi th nht bn trng hay ngi th hai bn trng,
C : c t nht 1 ngi bn trng.
Bi 3. Ba sinh vin A, B, C cng thi mn xc sut thng k. Xt cc bin c:
A : sinh vin A u,
19
B : sinh vin B u,
C : sinh vin C u.
Hy biu din qua A, B, C cc bin c sau :
a) ch c A u,
b) A u v B rt,
c) c t nht mt ngi u,
d) c 3 cng u,
e) c t nht 2 ngi u,
f) ch c 2 ngi u,
g) khng ai u,
h) khng c qu 2 ngi u.
Bi 4. Quan st 4 sinh vin lm bi thi. K hiu B j (j = 1, 2, 3, 4) l bin c sinh vin j lm bi
thi t yu cu. Hy vit cc bin c sau y
a) C ng mt sinh vin t yu cu,
b) c ng 3 sinh vin t yu cu,
c) c t nht 1 sinh vin t yu cu,
d) khng c sinh vin no t yu cu.
Xc sut bng nh ngha.
Bi 5. Mt cng ty lin doanh cn tuyn mt k ton trng, mt trng phng tip th, c
40 ngi d tuyn trong c 15 n. Tnh xc sut trong 2 ngi c tuyn c:
a) k ton trng l n,
b) t nht 1 n.
p s: a) 0,75;b) 0,6154.
20
Bi 6. Mt l hng c 10 sn phm, trong c 7 sn phm tt, 3 sn phm xu. Ly ngu

nhin t l hng ra 4 sn phm. Tnh xc sut 4 sn phm ly ra c 3 sn phm tt.
p s: 0,5.
Bi 7. Mt hp c 7 bi v 3 bi en.
a) Ly ngu nhin 1 vin bi t hp ra kim tra, tnh xc sut nhn c bi en.
b) Ly ngu nhin ln lt c hon li 2 bi. Tnh xc sut ly c 2 bi en.
c) Ly ngu nhin ra 2 vin bi t hp. Tnh xc sut ly c 2 bi en.
p s: a) 0,3; b) 0,09; c)
1
.
15
Cng thc cng nhn xc sut c iu kin.

Bi 8. Trong 100 ngi phng vn c 40 ngi thch dng nc hoa A, 28 ngi thch dng
nc hoa B, 10 ngi thch dng c 2 loi A, B. Chn ngu nhin 1 ngi trong s 100
ngi trn. Tnh xc sut ngi ny :
a) thch dng t nht 1 loi nc hoa trn,
b) khng dng loi no c.
p s: a) 0,58; b) 0,42.
Bi 9. Mt c quan c 210 ngi, trong c 100 ngi gn c quan, 60 ngi trong 100
ngi l n, bit rng s n chim gp i s nam trong c quan.
Chn ngu nhin 1 ngi trong c quan. Tnh xc sut :
a) ngi ny l nam,
b) ngi ny gn c quan,
c) ngi ny phi trc m (ngi trc m phi gn c quan hoc l nam).
p s: a)
21
1
; b) 0,476; c) 0,619.
3
Bi 10. Mi sinh vin c thi ti a 2 ln mt mn thi. Xc sut mt sinh vin u mn

xc sut thng k ln thi th 1 l P1 , ln thi th 2 l P2 . Tnh xc sut sinh vin ny
vt qua c mn xc sut thng k.
p s: P1 + (1 P1 ) P2 .
1
2
Bi 11. Cho A v B l 2 bin c sao cho P(A) = , P(B) =

1) P(A+B) ,
8) P(A B) ,
2) P(A + B) ,
9) P(A B) ,
3) P(A + B) ,
10) P(AB B) ,
4) P(AB) ,
11) P(AB B) ,
5) P(AB) ,
12) P(AB B) ,
6) P(AB) ,
13) P(A + B AB) ,
7) P(A + B) ,
14) P(AB A + B) .
1
1
, P(AB) = . Hy tnh :
3
6
Bi 12. i tuyn cu lng ca Trng i hc Ti chnh - Marketing c 3 vn ng vin,

mi vn ng vin thi u mt trn. Xc sut thng trn ca cc vn vin A, B, C ln lt l
: 0,9; 0,7; 0,8. Tnh xc sut :
a) i tuyn thng t nht 1 trn,
b) i tuyn thng 2 trn,
c) C thua, bit rng i tuyn thng 2 trn.
p s: a) 0,994; b) 0,398; c) 0,317.
Bi 13. Mt lp hc c 50 hc sinh trong k thi gii Ton v Vn, trong c 20 ngi gii
Ton, 25 ngi gii Vn, 10 ngi gii c Ton ln Vn. Chn ngu nhin 1 hc sinh ca
lp ny. Tnh xc sut hc sinh c chn gii Ton hoc Vn.
p s: 0,7.
22
Bi 14. Trong 1 khu ph, t l ngi mc bnh tim l 6%; mc bnh phi l 8% v mc c
hai bnh l 5%. Chn ngu nhin 1 ngi trong khu ph . Tnh xc sut ngi
khng mc c 2 bnh tim v bnh phi.
p s: 0,91.
Bi 15. Cho 3 bin c A, B, C sao cho
P(A) = 0,5; P(B) = 0,7; P(C) = 0,6;
P(AB) = 0,3; P(BC) = 0,4; P(AC) = 0,2
v P(ABC) = 0,1.
a) Tm xc sut c 3 bin c A, B, C u khng xy ra.
b) Tm xc sut c ng 2 trong 3 bin c xy ra.
c) Tm xc sut ch c ng 1 bin c trong 3 bin c xy ra.
p s: a) 0; b) 0,6; c) 0,3.
Bi 16. Mt ngi c 5 con g mi, 2 con g trng nht chung trong mt ci lng. Mt
ngi n mua, ngi bn g bt ngu nhin 1 con. Ngi mua chp nhn con .
a) Tnh xc sut ngi mua c con g mi.
Ngi th hai li n mua, ngi bn g li bt ngu nhin ra 1 con.
b) Tm xc sut ngi th hai mua c con g trng.
c) Xc sut ny s bng bao nhiu nu ngi bn g qun mt rng con g bn cho
ngi th nht l g trng hay g mi.
p s: a)
5
1
2
; b) ; c) .
7
3
7
Bi 17. Hai cng ty A, B cng kinh doanh mt mt hng. Xc sut cng ty A thua l l
0,2; xc sut cng ty B thua l l 0,4. Tuy nhin trn thc t, kh nng c 2 cng ty cng
thua l l 0,1. Tm xc sut
a) ch c mt cng ty thua l,
23
b) c t nht mt cng ty lm n khng thua l.

p s: a) 0,44; b) 0,92.
Bi 18. Mt th qu c mt chm cha kha gm 12 chic b ngoi ging ht nhau, trong
c 4 chic m c ca chnh ca th vin. C ta th tng cha mt mt cch ngu nhin,
cha no khng trng th b ra. Tm xc sut c ta m c ca chnh ca th vin ln
m th 5.
p s : 0,071.
Bi 19. Mt l hng c 6 sn phm tt, 4 sn phm xu. Ly ngu nhin khng hon li tng
sn phm cho n khi ly c 2 sn phm tt th ngng,
a) Tnh xc sut ngng li ln ly sn phm th 2,
b) Bit ngng li ln ly sn phm th 4. Tnh xc sut ln ly th nht ly
c sn phm tt.
p a)
1
1
; b)
.
3
14
Bi 20. Mt chng trai vit 4 l th cho 4 c gi; nhng v ng tr nn anh ta b 4 l th vo

4 phong b mt cch ngu nhin, dn kn ri mi ghi a ch gi,
a) Tnh xc sut khng c c no nhn ng th vit cho mnh,
b) Tnh xc sut c t nht 1 c nhn ng th ca mnh,
c) Tng qut ha vi n c gi. Tnh xc sut c t nht 1 c nhn ng th. Xp x gi
tr xc sut ny khi cho n .
Bi 21. Trong 1 l hng 10 sn phm c 2 sn phm xu, chn khng hon li pht hin
ra 2 sn phm xu, khi no chn c sn phm xu th 2 th dng li.
a) Tnh xc sut dng li ln chn th 4.
b) Bit rng chn c sn phm xu ln chn th nht, tnh xc sut dng li
ln chn th 4.
24
c) Nu vic kim tra dng li ln chn th 3, tnh xc sut ln chn u c sn

phm xu.
p s : a) 0,0667; b) 0,0222; c) 0,0222.
Bi 22. i tuyn bng bn Thnh ph c 4 vn ng vin A, B, C, D . Mi vn ng vin
thi u 1 trn, vi xc sut thng trn ln lt la : 0,6, 0,7, 0,8, 0,9. Tnh
a) xc sut i tuyn thng t nht 1 trn,
b) xc sut i tuyn thng 2 trn,
c) xc sut i tuyn thng 3 trn,
d) xc sut D thua, trong trng hp i tuyn thng 3 trn.
p s: a) 0,9976; b) 0,1496; c) 0,4404; d) 0,0763.
Bi 23. mt c quan n c 3 chic t. Kh nng c s c ca mi xe t ln lt l 0,15 ;
0,20 ; 0,10.
a) Tm kh nng 3 t cng b hng.
b) Tm kh nng c t nht 1 t hot ng tt.
c) Tm kh nng c 3 t cng hot ng c.
d) Tm xc sut c khng qu 2 t b hng.
p s: a) 0,003; b) 0,997; c) 0,612; d) 0,997.
Cng thc xc sut y Cng thc Bays.
Bi 24. Mt nh my sn xut bng n, my A sn xut 25%, my B: 35%, my C: 40% s
bng n. T l sn phm hng ca mi my trn s sn phm do my sn xut ln lt l
3%, 2%, 1%. Mt ngi mua 1 bng n do nh my sn xut.
a) Tnh xc sut sn phm ny tt.
b) Bit rng sn phm ny l xu. Tnh xc sut sn phm do my C sn xut.
p s: a) 0,981;b) 0,22.
25
Bi 25. Trong mt trm cp cu bng : 80% bnh nhn bng do nng, 20% bng do ha
cht. Loi bng do nng c 30% bi bin chng, loi bng do ha cht c 50% b bin chng.
a) Chn ngu nhin mt bnh n. Tnh xc sut gp mt bnh n ca bnh nhn b
bin chng.
b) Rt ngu nhin c mt bnh n ca mt bnh nhn b bin chng. Tnh xc sut
bnh n l ca bnh nhn b bin chng do nng gy ra? do ha cht gy ra?
p s: a) 0,34; b) 0,71; 0,2942.
Bi 26. Mt l ht ging c phn thnh ba loi. Loi 1 chim 2/3 s ht c l, loi 2
chim 1/4, cn li l loi 3. Loi 1 c t l ny mm 80%, loi 2 c t l ny mm 60% v
loi 3 c t l ny mm 40%. Hi t l ny mm chung ca l ht ging l bao nhiu ?
p s: 0,72.
Bi 27. Hai nh my cng sn sut 1 loi linh kin in t. Nng sut nh my hai gp 3 ln
nng sut nh my mt. T l hng ca nh my mt v hai ln lt l 0,1% v 0,2%. Gi s
linh kin bn Trung tm ch do hai nh my ny sn xut. Mua 1 linh kin Trung tm.
a) Tnh xc sut linh kin y hng.
b) Gi s mua linh kin v thy linh kin b hng. Theo bn th linh kin do nh
my no sn xut.
p s: a) 0,175%; b) nh my 2.
Bi 28. C 3 loi sng b ngoi hon ton ging nhau, vi xc sut bn trng bia tng ng
l 0,6, 0,7, 0,8. Loi th I c 5 khu, loi th II c 3 khu, loi th III c 2 khu. Chn ngu
nhin 1 khu v bn vo bia. Tnh xc sut bn trng bia.
p s: 0,67.
Bi 29. C 8 bnh ng bi, trong c :
2 bnh loi 1: mi bnh ng 6 bi trng 3 bi ,
3 bnh loi 2: mi bnh ng 5 bi trng 4 bi ,
3 bnh loi 3: mi bnh ng 2 bi trng 7 bi .
26
Ly ngu nhin mt bnh v t bnh ly ngu nhin 1 bi.

a) Tnh xc sut bi ly ra l bi trng.
b) Bit rng bi ly ra l bi trng. Tnh xc sut bnh ly ra l bnh loi 3.
p s: a) 0,458; b) 0,182.
Bi 30. Mt chung g c 9 con g mi v 1 con g trng. Chung g kia c 1 con mi v 5
con trng. T mi chung ly ngu nhin 1 con em bn. Cc con g cn li c dn vo
chung th ba. Nu ta li bt ngu nhin 1 con g na t chung ny ra th xc sut bt
c con g trng l bao nhiu?
p s: 0,36.
Bi 31. C 2 hp o; hp mt c 10 o trong c 1 ph phm; hp hai c 8 o trong c
2 ph phm. Ly ngu nhin 1 o t hp mt b sang hp hai; sau t hp ny chn ngu
nhin ra 2 o. Tm xc sut c 2 o ny u l ph phm.
Bi 32. C 3 x th cng bn vo mt con th, mi ngi bn 1 vin n, vi xc sut bn
trng ln lt l 0,6; 0,7; 0,8. Bit rng nu trng 1 pht n th xc sut con th b tiu
dit l 0,5; trng 2 pht th xc sut con th b tiu dit l 0,8; cn nu trng 3 pht n
th chc chn con th b tiu dit.
a) Tnh xc sut con th b tiu dit.
b) Gi s con th b tiu dit. Tnh xc sut n b trng 2 pht n.
p s: a) 0,7916; b) 0,4567.
Bi 33. C 3 hp bi; hp mt c 10 bi trong c 3 bi ; hp hai c 15 bi trong c 4 bi
; hp ba c 12 bi trong c 5 bi . Gieo mt con xc xc. Nu xut hin mt 1 th chn
hp mt, xut hin mt hai th chn hp 2, xut hin cc mt cn li th chn hp ba. T hp
c chn, ly ngu nhin 1 bi
a) Tnh xc sut c bi ,
b) Gi s ly c bi . Tnh xc sut bi ny thuc hp hai.
p s: a) 0,372; b) 0,1194.
27
Bi 34. Mt hp c 15 qu bng bn, trong c 9 mi 6 c, ln u chn ra 3 qu s

dng, sau b vo li, ln hai chn ra 3 qu.
a) Tnh xc sut 3 qu bng chn ln hai l 3 bng mi.
b) Bit rng ln hai chn c 3 bng mi, tnh xc sut ln u chn c 2 bng mi.
p s: a) 0,0893; b) 0,4091.
Bi 35. C 3 ci thng. Thng 1 c 6 bi trng, 4 bi ; thng 2 c 5 bi trng, 5 bi v
thng 3 c 10 bi trng. Gi s ngi ta ly ngu nhin 2 bi t thng 1 b vo thng 2. Sau
, li ly ngu nhin 1 bi t thng 2 b vo thng 3 ri t thng 3 ly ngu nhin ra 1 bi.
Tm xc sut bi ly ra l .
p s: 0,044.
Cng thc Bernoulli
Bi 36. Mt bc s cha khi bnh A cho mt ngi vi xc sut l 95%. Gi s c 10 ngi
b bnh A n cha mt cch c lp nhau. Tnh xc sut
a) C 8 ngi khi bnh,
b) C nhiu nht 9 ngi khi bnh.
p s: a) 0,0746; b) 0,389.
Bi 37. Mt thit b c 10 chi tit vi tin cy ca mi chi tit l 0,9. (Xc sut lm vic
tt trong khong thi gian no ).
Tnh xc sut trong khong thi gian y :
a) C ng mt chi tit lm vic tt,
b) C t nht 2 chi tit lm vic tt.
p s: a) 9 109 ; b) 1 .
Bi 38. Mt cu th thnh cng qu pht 11m vi xc sut 80%.
- 4 thnh cng 2.
- 6 thnh cng 3.
28
Cng vic no d thc hin ?

p s: 4 thnh cng 2 d hn.
Bi 39. Trong mt thnh ph c 70% dn c thch xem bng . Chn ngu nhin 10 ngi,
tnh xc sut c :
a) 5 ngi thch xem bng ,
b) t nht 2 ngi thch xem bng .
p s: a) 0,103; b) 0,99986.
Bi 40. Mt nh ton hc c xc sut gii c mt bi ton kh l 0,9. Cho nh ton hc
ny 5 bi ton kh c chn mt cch ngu nhin.
a) Tnh xc sut nh ton hc ny gii c 3 bi.
b) Tnh xc sut nh ton hc ny gii c t nht 1 bi.
c) Tnh s bi c kh nng nht m nh ton hc ny gii c.
p s: a) 0,0729; b) 0,99999; c) 5 bi.
Bi 41. T l mc bnh Basedow mt vng rng ni no l 70%. Trong t khm tuyn
sc kho xut cnh, ngi ta khm cho 100 ngi. Tm xc sut
a) Trong 100 ngi c 6 ngi b Basedow,
b) Trong 100 ngi c 95 ngi khng b Basedow,
c) Trong 100 ngi c t nht mt ngi b Basedow.
p s: a) 0,1528; b) 0,12826; c) 0,999.
Bi 42. Mt l hng vi t l ph phm l 5%. Cn phi ly mu c bao nhiu sao cho xc
sut b t nht mt ph phm khng b hn 0,95.
p s: n 59 .
Bi 43. Hai u th A, B thi u c. Xc sut thng ca ngi A trong mt vn l 0,6
(khng c ha). Trn u bao gm 5 vn, ngi no thng mt s vn ln hn l ngi
thng cuc. Tnh xc sut ngi B thng cuc.
29
p s: 0,31744.
Bi 44. Mt my sn xut ln lt tng sn phm. Xc sut sn xut ra mt ph phm ca
my l 0,01.
a) Cho my sn xut 10 sn phm. Tnh xc sut c 2 ph phm.
b) My cn sn xut t nht bao nhiu sn phm xc sut c t nht mt chnh phm
trn 0,99.
p s: a) 0,0041; b) 2.
30
Chng 2. BIN S NGU NHIN

2.1. Tm tt l thuyt
2.1.1. Bin s ngu nhin ri rc
a) Bng phn phi xc sut
Bin s ngu nhin ri rc X c xc nh bng bng phn phi xc sut
X
x1
x2
xn
p1
p2
pn
trong x1 < x 2 < ... < xn < ... l cc gi tr nhn c bi X v p i = P ( X = x i ) , vi mi i.

b) Hm xc sut
Hm s f(x) c gi l hm xc sut bin s ngu nhin ri rc X, nu f(x) c xc
nh nh sau:
khi x = x i
p
f (x) = i
0
khi x x i , i
c) Hm phn phi xc sut

Hm s F(x) c gi l hm phn phi (xc sut) ca bin s ngu nhin ri rc X,
nu F(x) c xc nh nh sau:
F(x) = P ( X x ) =
f (x )
i
xi x
d) Trung bnh v phng sai

Gi tr trung bnh (k vng) ca X cho bi
X = E ( X ) =
x f (x ) = x p ,
i
xi
v phng sai ca X l
2X = Var(X) =
(x
X ) f (x i ) =
2
xi
(x
X ) pi .
2
Cn bc hai ca phng sai gi l lch chun,

X = se(X) = 2X .
31
2.1.2. Bin s ngu nhin lin tc

a) Hm mt xc sut
Hm s f : c gi l hm mt (xc sut) bin s ngu nhin lin tc X,
nu f(x) c xc nh nh sau:
P ( a X b) =
f (x)dx , vi a, b , a < b .
b) Hm phn phi xc sut

Hm s F : c gi l hm phn phi (xc sut) ca bin s ngu nhin lin
tc X, nu F(x) c xc nh nh sau:
F(x) = P ( X x ) =
f (t)dt
c) Trung bnh v phng sai

Gi tr trung bnh (k vng) ca X cho bi
X = E ( X ) =
xf (x)dx ,
v phng sai ca X l
2X = Var(X) =
(x )
X
f (x)dx .
(Var : Variance)
Cn bc hai ca phng sai gi l lch chun,

X = se(X) = 2X .
(Se : Standard error)
2.2. Bi tp mu
Bin s ngu nhin ri rc
Bi 1. C hai thng thuc A v B, trong :
- thng A c 20 l gm 2 l hng v 18 l tt,
- thng B c 20 l gm 3 l hng v 17 l tt.
a) Ly mi thng 1 l. Gi X l s l hng trong hai l ly ra. Tm hm mt ca X.
b) Ly thng B ra 3 l. Gi Y l s l hng trong 3 l ly ra. Tm hm mt ca Y.
Gii
32
a) Xt cc bin c
A : nhn c l hng t thng A,
B : nhn c l hng t thng B,
v gi X l s l hng trong hai l ly ra. Ta c X ly cc gi tr 0, 1 v 2. Ch rng A, B
l cc bin c c lp. Ta c
P(X = 0) = P(AB) = P(A)P(B) =
18 17 306
=
= 0, 765 ,
20 20 400
P(X = 1) = P(AB + AB) = P(A)P(B) + P(A)P(B)

2 17 18 3
88
=
=
= 0, 22,
20 20 20 20 400
P(X = 2) = P(AB) = P(A)P(B) =
2 3
6
=
= 0, 015 .
20 20 400
T , ta c bng phn phi xc sut

X
0,765
0,22
2
0,015
v hm mt ca X
0, 765
0, 22
f (x) =
0, 015
0
khi x = 0
khi x = 1
khi x = 2
khi x 0, 1, 2
b) Gi Y l s l hng trong 3 l ly ra t thng B. Ta c Y H(20, 3, 3) , ngha l

P(Y = k) =
3 k
C3k C17
3
C20
v ta nhn c bng phn phi xc sut

Y
0,596
0,358
0,045
0,001
cng nh hm mt ca Y
33
khi x = 0
khi x = 1
0, 596
0, 358
f (x) = 0, 045
0, 001
khi x = 2
khi x = 3
khi x 0, 1, 2, 3
Bi 2. C hai l sn phm.
- L 1: C 8 chnh phm v 2 ph phm
- L 2: C 7 chnh phm v 3 ph phm
T l 1 ly ngu nhin 2 sn phm b sang l 2, sau t l 2 ly ra 2 sn phm.
a) Tm bng phn phi xc sut ca s chnh phm c ly ra
b) Tm hm phn phi xc sut ca s chnh phm c ly ra
Gii
a) Xt cc bin c
A : nhn c 2 ph phm t l 1,
B : nhn c 1 chnh phm v 1 ph phm t l 1,
C : nhn c 2 chnh phm t l 1,
v gi X l s chnh phm ly ra t l 2. Ta c X ly cc gi tr 0, 1 v 2.
Nhn xt A, B, C l h y cc bin c
P (X = 0) = P ( X = 0| A ) P ( A ) + P ( X = 0|B) P (B) + P ( X = 0|C) P (C)

C52
C22
C08C24 C18C12
C23 C28
+ 2 2 + 2 2
C12
C10
C12 C10
2
2
C12
C10
10 1
6 16
3 28
190
=
66 45 66 45 66 45 2970

=
=
C17C15
2
C12
C22
2
C10
C18C14 C18C12 C19C13 C82

+ 2 2 + 2 2
C12
C10
C12 C10
35 1
32 16 27 28 1303
=
66 45 66 45 66 45 2970
34

C72
C22
C82
C18C12
C92
C82
2 + 2 2 + 2 2
2
C12
C10 C12 C10
C12 C10
21 1
28 16 36 28 1477
=
66 45 66 45 66 45 2970

X
190
2970
1303
2970
1477
2970
b) Tm hm phn phi xc sut ca s chnh phm c ly ra

0
190
F(x) = 2970
1493
2970
khi x < 0
khi 0 x < 1
khi 1 x < 2
khi 2 x
Bi 3. Thc hin ba ln bn bia vi xc sut trng bia tng ng l 0,3; 0,4; 0,6. Tm trung
bnh v phng sai ca s ln bn trng bia.
Gii
Gi A i bin c bn trng bia ln th i
Ta c: P (A 1 ) = 0, 2; P ( A 2 ) = 0, 3; P ( A 3 ) = 0, 6
Gi X l s ln bn trng bia trong 3 ln bn, X ly cc gi tr 0, 1, 2, 3. Ch rng
A 1 , A 2 , A 3 l cc bin c c lp. Ta c
P (X = 0) = P ( A1 A 2 A 3 ) = P ( A1 ) P ( A 2 ) P ( A 3 )
= 0,7 0, 6 0, 4 = 0,168,
P (X = 1) = P ( A1 A 2 A 3 + A1 A 2 A 3 + A1 A 2 A 3 )
= P ( A1 A 2 A 3 ) + P ( A1 A 2 A 3 ) + P ( A1A 2 A 3 )
35
= P (A1 ) P ( A 2 ) P ( A 3 ) + P ( A1 ) P (A 2 ) P ( A 3 ) + P ( A1 ) P ( A 2 ) P (A 3 )
= 0, 3 0, 6 0, 4 + 0,7 0, 4 0, 4 + 0, 7 0, 6 0, 6 = 0, 436,
P ( X = 2) = P ( A 1A 2 A 3 + A1 A 2 A 3 + A1 A 2 A 3 )
= P ( A 1A 2 A 3 ) + P ( A 1 A 2 A 33 ) + P ( A1 A 2 A 3 )
= P ( A 1 ) P ( A 2 ) P ( A 3 ) + P ( A1 ) P ( A 2 ) P ( A 3 ) + P ( A 1 ) P ( A 2 ) P ( A 3 )
= 0, 3 0, 4 0, 4 + 0, 3 0, 6 0, 6 + 0, 7 0, 4 0, 6 = 0, 324
P ( X = 3) = P ( A 1 A 2 A 3 ) = P ( A 1 ) P ( A 2 ) P ( A 3 ) = 0, 3 0, 4 0, 6 = 0, 072 .

X
0,168
0,436
0,324
0,072
Trung bnh EX = 1, 3 ; phng sai 2X = 0, 69 .

Bin s ngu nhin lin tc
Bi 4. Gi X l tui th ca con ngi. Mt cng trnh nghin cu cho bit hm mt ca
X l
2
2
cx (100 x)
f (x) =
0
khi 0 x 100
khi
x < 0 hay x > 100
a) Xc nh hng s c.
b) Tnh trung bnh v phng sai ca X.
c) Tnh xc sut ca mt ngi c tui th 60 .
d) Tnh xc sut ca mt ngi c tui th 60 , bit rng ngi hin nay 50 tui.
Gii
a) f (x) l hm mt , ta cn
+
f (x)dx = 1 .
36
100
f (x)dx =
102
x3
x4 x5
2.102
+
cx (100 x ) dx = c 104
,
3
4
5 0
nn ta c phng trnh
102
x3
x 4 x5
c 104
2.102
+
3
4
5 0
= 1.
Gii phng trnh ny, ta c c = 3,109 .

b) Ta c trung bnh
+
X = E(X) =
100
xf (x)dx = c x
(100 x )
dx
100
=c
(10 x
4
2.102 x4 + x5 )dx
0
102
x4
x5 x 6
= c 104
2.102
+
4
5
6 0
= 50,
v phng sai
+
2X = E(X 2 ) 2X =
100
x2 f (x)dx 502 = c
(100 x )
100
=c
(10 x
4
2.102 x5 + x6 )dx 2500
0
102
x5
x 6 x7
= c 104
2.102
+
2500
5
6
7 0
1014
105
2500
= 3.109
2500 =
.
2500 =
35
7
105
c) Xc sut ca mt ngi c tui th 60 l
37
dx 2500
P(X 60) =
100
f (x)dx =
60
cx2 (100 x ) dx
2
60
100
=c
(10 x
4
2.102 x 3 + x4 )dx
60
102
x3
x 4 x5
= c 104
2.102
+
3
4
5
60
1010
216
1296 7776
5
= c
20.
+
10 100.
3
4
5
30
104 11376
992
= 3,109105
= 0, 31744.
=
5 3125
3
d) tnh xc sut ca mt ngi c tui th 60 , khi bit ngi 50 tui, ta tnh

xc sut c iu kin
P X 60 X 50 =
=
P ( X 60)( X 50)
P ( X 50 )
P ( X 60)
P ( X 50 )
0, 31744
= 0, 63488,
0, 5
vi P ( X 50) c tnh nh phn c v bng 0,5.

Bi 5. Cho bin s ngu nhin lin tc X c hm mt xc sut
sin x
f (x) = 2
khi x (0, )
khi x (0, )
a) Tm hm phn phi xc sut ca X.
b) Tm P 0 X
4
c) Tm trung bnh v phng sai ca X.
Gii
a) Tm hm phn phi xc sut ca X.
x
Trng hp 1. Nu x 0 th F(x) =
38
f (t)dt = 0 .
Trng hp 2. Nu 0 < x
x
F(x) =
f (t)dt =
f (t)dt + f (t)dt
0
sin t
cos t
1 cos x
dt =
=
2
2 0
2
Trng hp 3. Nu < x < +

x
F(x) =
f (t)dt =
f (t)dt + f (t)dt + f (t)dt

0
sin t
cos t
dt =
=1
2
2 0
Vy hm phn phi xc sut ca X l
1 cos x
F(x) =
khi x 0
khi 0 < x
khi < x
1 cos x 4
1
2
b) P 0 X =
=
4
2
2
4
0
c) Trung bnh v phng sai
Trung bnh
EX =
xf (x)dx =
1
x sin xdx
2 0
u = x du = dx
dv = sin xdx v = cos x
EX =
1
1
x cos x + cos xdx
0
2
2 0
1
1
= x cos x + sin x =
2
2
2
0
Phng sai: Var(X) = EX 2 (EX )
39
Vi
EX 2 =
1 2
x sin xdx
2 0
t
u = x 2 du = 2xdx
dv = sin xdx v = cos x
1
2
EX 2 = x 2 cos x + x cos xdx =
+I
0
0
2
2
Tnh I =
x cos xdx
u = x du = dx
dv = cos xdx v = sin x
I = x sin x sin xdx = x sin x + cos x = 2

0
2
2
Vy Var(X) =
2 =
2
2
2
4
2.3. Bi tp rn luyn
Bin s ngu nhin ri rc
Bi 1. Cho X l mt bin s ngu nhin c phn phi xc sut nh sau
X
PX
2a
2a
3a
a2
2a 2
7a 2 + a
a) Xc nh a.
b) Tnh P [ X 5] , P [ X < 3] .
1
2
c) Tnh k nh nht sao cho P [ X k ] .

p s: a) a = 0,1 ; b) P X 5 = 0, 2; P X < 3 = 0, 3 ; c) k = 3 .
40
Bi 2. Xt tr chi, tung mt con xc xc ba ln: nu c ba ln c 6 nt th thng 6 ngn

ng, nu hai ln 6 nt th thng 4 ngn ng, mt ln 6 nt th thng 2 ngn ng, v
nu khng c 6 nt th khng thng g ht. Mi ln chi phi ng A ngn ng. Hi :
a) A bao nhiu th ngi chi v lu v di hu vn (gi l tr chi cng bng),
b) A bao nhiu th trung bnh mi ln ngi chi mt 1 ngn ng.
p s: a) A = 1; b) A = 2 .
Bi 3. Mt nh u t c 3 d n. Gi Xi (i=1, 2, 3) l s tin thu c khi thc hin d n
th i (gi tr m ch s tin b thua l). Xi l bin s ngu nhin. Qua nghin cu, gi s c s
liu nh sau : (n v tnh : 10 triu ng )
X1
-20
30
60
0,3
0,2
0,5
X2
-20
-10
100
0,4
0,2
0,4
X3
-25
-30
80
0,2
0,3
0,5
Theo anh (ch), ta nn chn d n no ?

p s: Nn chn d n 1.
Bi 4. C 3 x th cng bn vo mt mc tiu, mi ngi bn 1 vin, trong cng mt s iu
kin nht nh. Xc sut mi x th bn trng mc tiu ln lt l 0,6; 0,7; 0,9. Gi X l
s vin n trng mc tiu. Tnh E(X); Var(X) v Mod(X).
p s: EX = 2, 2; Var(X) = 0, 54; Mod(X) = 2.
Bi 5. Mt phn xng c ba my M1 , M2 , M3 . Trong mt gi, mi my sn xut c 10
sn phm. S sn phm khng t tiu chun trong 10 sn phm ca M1 , M2 , M3 ln lt l
1, 2, 1. Ly ngu nhin 1 sn phm t 10 sn phm do mi my sn xut. Gi X l s sn
phm khng t tiu chun trong 3 sn phm c ly ra.
41
a) Lp bng phn phi xc xut ca X.

b) Tm E(X), Var(X), Mod(X).
c) Tnh P ( X 1) .
p s: a)
X
0,648
0,306
0,044
0,002
b) EX = 0, 4; Var(X) = 0, 34; Mod(X) = 0 ; c) 0,954.

Bi 6. T l khch hng phn ng tch cc i vi mt chin dch qung co l bin s ngu
nhin c bng phn phi xc sut nh sau :
X (%)
10
20
30
40
50
0,1
0,2
0,35
0,2
0,1
0,05
a) Tm t l khch hng bnh qun phn ng tch cc i vi chin dch qung co .

b) Tm xc sut c trn 20% khch hng phn ng tch cc i vi chin dch qung
co.
p s: a) 21,5%; b) 0,35.
Bi 7. Qua theo di trong nhiu nm kt hp vi s nh gi ca cc chuyn gia ti chnh th
li sut u t vo mt cng ty l bin s ngu nhin c bng phn phi xc sut nh sau:
X (%)
10
11
12
13
14
15
0,05
0,15
0,3
0,2
0,15
0,1
0,05
a) Tnh xc sut khi u t vo cng ty th s t c li sut t nht l 12%.

b) Tnh li sut k vng khi u t vo cng ty .
c) Mc ri ro khi u t vo cng ty c th nh gi bng cch no?
p s a) 0,5; b) EX = 11, 75 ; c) 2X = 2, 2875 .
Bi 8. Cho bin s ngu nhin ri rc X c bng phn phi xc sut nh sau:
X
0,3
0,1
0,6
42
Tnh P X E ( X ) < 4 .
p s: 0,7.
Bi 9. Li nhun X thu c khi u t 50 triu ng vo mt d n c bng phn phi xc
sut nh sau (n v : triu ng).
X
-2
-1
0,1
0,1
0,2
0,2
0,3
0,1
a) Tm mc li nhun c kh nng nhiu nht khi u t vo d n .

b) Vic u vo d n ny c hiu qu hay khng? Ti sao?
c) Lm th no o c mc ri ro ca v u t ny? Hy tm mc ri ro .
p s: a) Mod(X) = 2 ; b) EX = 0, 8 ; 2X = 3, 24 .
Bi 10. Ti mt ca hng bn xe my Honda ngi ta thng k c s xe my bn ra hng
tun (X) vi bng phn phi xc sut nh sau :
X
P
10
11
0,05 0,12 0,17 0,08 0,12 0,2 0,07 0,02 0,07 0,02 0,03 0,05
a) Tm s xe trung bnh bn c mi tun.

b) Tm phng sai v lch chun ca s xe bn c mi tun v gii thch ngha
ca kt qu nhn c.
p s: a) 4,33; b) 2X = 8, 3411; X = 2, 89 .
Bi 11. Sn phm nh my c ng thnh tng hp, mi hp c 10 sn phm. Gi X l s
sn phm loi mt c trong hp. Cho bit X c bng phn phi xc sut nh sau:
X
0,7
0,3
Khch hng chn cch kim tra mua hng nh sau : T mi hp ly ngu nhin ra 3 sn
phm kim tra, nu thy c t nht 2 sn phm loi mt th mua hp . Ly ngu nhin 3
hp kim tra. Tnh xc sut c 2 hp c mua.
p s: 0,381.
Bin s ngu nhin lin tc
43
Bi 12. Tui th ca mt loi bng n no l mt bin s ngu nhin lin tc X (n v

nm) vi hm mt nh sau
kx2 (4 x) khi 0 x 4
f (x) =
0
khi x [0, 4]
a) Tm k v v th f(x).
b) Tm xc sut bng n hng trc khi n c 1 nm tui.
p s: a) k =
3
; b) 0,0508.
64
Bi 13. Khi lng ca mt con vt 6 thng tui l mt bin s ngu nhin X (n v tnh l
Kg) c hm mt
k(x 2 1) khi 1 x 3
f (x) =
0
khi x [1, 3]
a) Tm k.
b) Vi k tm c, tnh
(i) khi lng trung bnh ca vt 6 thng tui,
(ii) t l vt chm ln, bit vt 6 thng tui chm ln l vt c khi lng nh hn 2Kg,
(iii) hm phn phi xc sut ca X.
p s: a) k =
3
; b) EX = 2, 4 ; P (X < 2) = 0, 2
20
x 3 3x + 2
F(x) =
20
1
Bi 14. Cho hm mt ca bin ngu nhin X c dng
a cos x khi x 2 , 2
f (x) =
khi x 2 , 2
0
44
khi x 1
khi 1 < x 3
khi x > 3
a) Tm a v xc nh hm phn phi xc sut ca X.
b) Tnh xc sut X nhn gi tr trong khong , .

4
sin x + 1
p s: a) a = 0, 5; F(x) =
khi x
<x
2
2
khi x >
2
khi
b) 0,1465.
Bi 15. Cho X l bin s ngu nhin lin tc c hm phn phi xc sut sau:
F(x) =
1 1
+ arctan x
4
a) Tnh P ( 0 < X < 1) .

b) Tm hm mt xc sut ca X.
p s: a) 0,25; b) f (x) =
(1 + x 2 )
Bi 16. Cho X l bin s ngu nhin lin tc c hm phn phi xc sut sau:
F(x) =
1 1
x
+ arctan
2
2
Tm gi tr x1 tha mn iu kin: P ( X > x1 ) =
1
.
4
p s: x1 = 2 .
Bi 17. Thi gian xp hng ch mua hng ca khch l bin s ngu nhin lin tc X vi
hm phn phi xc sut nh sau:
khi x 0
F(x) = ax 3 3x 2 + 2x
1
khi 0 < x 1
khi x > 1
a) Tm h s a.
45
b) Tm thi gian trung bnh.

c)Tm xc sut trong 3 ngi xp hng th c khng qu 2 ngi phi ch qu 0,5
pht.
p s: a) a = 2 ; b) EX = 0, 5 ; c) 0,875.
Bi 18. T l mc mt loi bnh trong mt vng dn c l bin s ngu nhin lin tc X c
hm mt nh sau:
f (x) = 20
khi x 5, 25
khi x 5, 25
a) Tnh P X 10 > 2, 5 .
b) Tnh t l mc bnh trung bnh v phng sai ca X.
p s: a) 0,75; b) EX = 15; 2X = 33, 3 .
Bi 19. Tui th (tnh theo gi) ca mt tr chi in t bm tay l mt bin s ngu nhin
lin tc c hm mt xc sut nh sau:
x
100
ke
f (x) =
0
khi x 0
khi x < 0
a) Tm hng s k.
b) Tnh xc sut tui th ca tr chi ny nm trong khong t 50 n 150 gi.
c) Tnh xc sut tui th ca tr chi ny t hn 100 gi.
p s: a) k = 0, 01 ; b) 0,239; c) 0,632.
Bi 20. Cho bin s ngu nhin lin tc X c hm mt xc sut nh sau:
m e x
x
f (x) =
m!
0
khi x 0
khi x < 0
Tnh trung bnh v phng sai ca X.

p s : EX = 2X = m + 1 .
46
Chng 3. PHN PHI XC SUT

1. Phn phi nh thc B(n; p)
1.1. nh ngha
Bin s ngu nhin ri rc X c gi l phn phi nh thc, k hiu X B(n; p)
nu hm xc sut ca X c dng sau
Cnx p x (1 p)n x khi x = 0,1, 2, ..., n

f (x) =
khi x 0,1, 2, ..., n
0
Cng thc xc sut
P ( X = k ) = Cnk p k (1 p)n k , vi k = 0,1, 2,..., n

1.2. Mnh :
Cho X B(n; p) , ta c
i) Trung bnh: X = np ,
ii) Phng sai: 2X = np(1 p) ,
iii) Gi tr tin chc: Mod(X) = k 0 tha np q k 0 np q + 1 , vi
q = 1 p.
2. Phn phi siu bi H(N, K, n)
2.1. nh ngha
Bin s ngu nhin ri rc X c gi l phn phi siu bi, k hiu
X H(N, K, n) nu hm xc sut ca X c dng sau
CKx CnNxK
n
f (x) = CN
0
khi x max{0, n N + K}, min{n, K}

khi x max{0, n N + K}, min{n, K}
Cng thc xc sut
P (X = k) =
CKk CnNkK
CnN
, vi max{0, n N + K} k min{n, K}
2.2. Mnh :
Cho H(N, K, n) , ta c
47
i) Trung bnh: X = np ,
N n
ii) Phng sai: 2X = np(1 p)
.
N 1
3. Phn phi Poisson P()
3.1. nh ngha
Bin s ngu nhin ri rc X c gi l phn phi poisson, k hiu X P()
nu hm xc sut ca X c dng sau
x
e
f (x) =
x!
0
khi x = 0,1, 2, ..., n

khi x 0,1, 2, ..., n
Cng thc xc sut
P (X = k) = e
k
, vi k = 0,1, 2,..., n
k!
3.2. Mnh :
Cho X P() , ta c
i) Trung bnh: X = ,
ii) Phng sai: 2X = ,
iii) lch chun: X = .
3.3. Ch : Nu X B(n, p) , trong p nh v n ln th X c xem nh c
phn phi Poisson X P() , vi = np .
Bng cch vit
n(n 1)...(n k + 1) k
p (1 p)n k
k!
k
1 n(n 1)...(n k + 1)
=
np ) (1 p)n k
(
k
k!
n
Cnk p k (1 p)n k =
v vi = np khng i, khi n , ta c p 0 v
lim
n
n(n 1)...(n k + 1)
=1
nk
lim(1 p)
n
nk
= lim(1 p)
p 0
k
p
= e
Vy
48
Cnk p k (1 p)n k e
k
k!
4. Phn phi Chun N , 2
4.1. nh ngha
Bin s ngu nhin lin tc X c gi l phn phi chun, k hiu
X N , 2 nu hm mt ca X c dng sau
f (x) =
1
2
( x )
2 2
< x < + ,
Cng thc xc sut
P ( a X b) =
1
2
(x )2
2 2
dx , vi a, b , a b
4.2. Mnh :
Cho X N , 2 , ta c
i) Trung bnh: X = ,
ii) Phng sai: 2X = 2 ,
iii) lch chun: X = .
4.3. Ch :
i) Nu X N , 2 th t Y =
X
, ta c Y N(0,1) (Y: phn phi Gauss
hay l phn phi chun tc). Do , vi a, b , a b , ta c
a
b
a
b
P ( a X b) = P
Y
=

vi (x) =
1
2
t2
2
dx
ii) Phn phi chun dng kho st cc hin tng bnh thng. C th, nu
X B (n; p) vi tch np ln th ta xp x phn phi nh thc B (n; p) bng phn phi

chun N (; 2 ) , vi = np, 2 = npq .
49
iii) S lin h gia cc phn phi nh thc, siu bi, Poisson v chun c cho trong
s sau:
Phan phoi sieu boi
H(N,K,n)
Xap x khi n << N,
vi p = K/N
Xap x khi n ln,
p < 0.01, np < 5,
vi = np
Phan phoi Poisson

P()
Phan phoi nh thc

B(n;p)
Xap x khi n ln,
np > 5 va nq > 5,
vi =np, 2 = npq
Phan phoi chuan

N(;2 )
5. Phn phi Gamma v phn phi chi bnh phng

nh ngha: hm Gamma : ( 0, )
(x) =
x 1 t
e dt
5.1. nh ngha
Bin s ngu nhin lin tc X c gi l phn phi Gamma, k hiu
X ( , ) , vi , > 0 , nu hm mt ca X c dng sau

x
1
x e
f (x) = ()
khi x > 0
khi x 0
5.2. Mnh
Cho X (, ) , ta c
i) Trung bnh: X = ,
ii) Phng sai: 2X = 2 .
5.3. nh ngha
Bin s ngu nhin lin tc X c gi l phn phi chi bnh phng, k hiu
X 2 (r) , nu hm mt ca X c dng sau
50
r
x
1
1
2
x e 2
r
r
f (x) = 2 2
2
khi x > 0
,
khi x 0
r
ngha l X , 2
2
5.4. Mnh
Cho X 2 (r) , ta c
i) Trung bnh: X = r ,
ii) Phng sai: 2X = 2r .
6. Phn phi Student St(n)
6.1. nh ngha
Cho X l bin s ngu nhin lin tc c phn phi Gauss, X N ( 0,1) ; Y l bin
s ngu nhin lin tc c phn phi Chi bnh phng vi n bc t do, Y 2 (n) v
X, Y l hai bin s c lp.
t
T=
X
Y
th T c phn phi Student vi n bc t do, T St(n) .

6.2. Mnh
Cho T St(n) , ta c
i) Trung bnh: T = 0 ,
ii) Phng sai: 2T =
n
.
n2
6.3. Ch : Nu X St(n) , vi n 30 , th X N(0,1) .

7. Phn phi Fisher F(n, m)
7.1. nh ngha
Cho X, Y l hai bin s ngu nhin lin tc c phn phi Chi bnh phng,
X 2 (n) , Y 2 (m) v X, Y l hai bin s c lp.

51
X
F=
n
m
th F c phn phi Fisher vi n, m bc t do, F F (n, m) .

7.2. Mnh
Cho F F (n, m) , ta c
i) Trung bnh: F =
ii) Phng sai: 2F =
3.1.
m
,
m2
2m2 (n + m2 2)
.
n(m 2)2 (m 4)
Bi tp mu
Bi 1. Gi s t l sinh con trai v con gi l bng nhau v bng
1
. Mt gia nh c 4
2
ngi con. Tnh xc sut 4 a con gm

a) 2 trai v 2 gi,
b) 1 trai v 3 gi,
c) 4 trai.
Gii
Gi X l s con trai trong mt gia nh c 4 con th X B ( 4; 0, 5) .
a) Xc sut c hai trai v hai gi trong bn a con l
P(X = 2) = C24 ( 0, 5 )
( 0, 5)
3
= 0, 375.
8
b) Xc sut c mt con trai trong s bn a con l

1
= 0, 25.
4
P(X = 1) = C14 ( 0, 5 ) ( 0, 5 ) =
1
c) Xc sut c bn u l trai
P(X = 4) = C44 ( 0, 5 )
( 0, 5)
1
= 0, 0625.
16
52
Bi 2. Mt nh my sn xut vi t l ph phm l 7%
a) Quan st ngu nhin 10 sn phm. Tnh xc sut
i) c ng mt ph phm,
ii) c t nht mt ph phm,
iii) c nhiu nht mt ph phm.
b) Hi phi quan st t nht bao nhiu sn phm xc sut nhn c t nht mt ph
phm 0, 9 .
Gii
a) Gi X l s ph phm nhn c trong 10 sn phm th X B (10; 0, 07 ) .
i) Xc sut c ng 1 ph phm trong 10 sn phm l
P(X = 1) = C110 ( 0, 07 ) (1 0, 07 )
10 1
= 10 0, 07 ( 0, 93) = 0, 3643.
9
ii) Xc sut c t nht mt ph phm l

P(X 1) = 1 P(X = 0)
0
= 1 C10
( 0, 07) ( 0, 93)
0
10
= 1 ( 0, 93)
10
= 0, 516.
iii) V xc sut c nhiu nht mt ph phm l

P(X 1) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)
0
= C10
( 0, 07)
( 0, 93)
10
1
+ C10
( 0, 07) ( 0, 93) = 0, 8483.
1
b) Gi n l s sn phm quan st xc sut nhn c t nht mt ph phm 0, 9 . Vi

bin s X ch s ph phm nhn c trong n ln quan st ny th X B ( n; 0.07 ) . Do
P(X 1) = 1 P(X = 0)
= 1 C0n ( 0, 07 ) ( 0, 93) = 1 ( 0, 93) .
0
T P(X 1) 0, 9 , ta c bt phng tnh

1 ( 0, 93) 0, 9 .
n
53
Gii bt phng tnh trn, ta nhn c gi tr n 31, 73 . Vy phi quan st t nht

32 sn phm.
Bi 3. Trong s 20 cng nhn ca mt cng ty c 12 ngi c tay ngh kh. Tm xc sut
kim tra ngu nhin tay ngh ca 5 cng nhn th c t nht 3 ngi c tay ngh kh.
Gii
Gi X l s cng nhn c tay ngh trong 5 cng nhn kim tra th X H ( 20,12, 5) .
Xc sut c t nht 3 cng nhn c tay ngh l
P(X 3) = P ( X = 3) + P ( X = 4 ) + P ( X = 5 )
=
3
C12
C28
5
20
4
C12
C18
5
20
5
C12
C08
5
20
10912
= 0, 704.
15504
Bi 4. thanh ton 1 triu ng tin hng, mt khch hng gian ln xp ln 5 t 50

ngn ng tin gi vi 15 t tin tht. Ch ca hng rt ngu nhin 3 t giy bc em i
kim tra v giao hn nu pht hin c bc gi th c mi t gi khch hng phi n hai
t tht. Tm s tin pht m khch c th phi tr.
Gii
Gi X l s t gi trong 3 t rt ra th X H ( 20, 5, 3) .
Bng phn phi xc sut ca X
X
455
1140
525
1140
150
1140
10
1140
Gi Y l s tin b pht, ta c Y = 100X

Y
100
200
300
455
1140
525
1140
150
1140
10
1140
Trung bnh s tin b pht: EY = 75 ngn ng.
54
Bi 5. Mt trung tm bu in nhn c trung bnh 3 cuc in thoi trong mi pht.

Tnh xc sut trung tm ny nhn c 1 cuc, 2 cuc, 3 cuc gi trong 1 pht, bit
rng s cuc gi trong mt pht c phn phi Poisson.
Gii
Gi X l s cuc gi nhn c trong 1 pht th X c phn phi Poisson vi trung
bnh 3, ngha l X P(3) .
Xc sut trung tm bu in nhn c 1 cuc, 2 cuc v 3 cuc gi trong 1 pht
ln lt l
P(X = 1) = e3
31
= 0,1494 ,
1!
P(X = 2) = e3
32
= 0, 224 ,
2!
P(X = 3) = e3
33
= 0, 224 .
3!
Bi 6. Khi tim truyn mt loi huyt thanh, trung bnh c mt trng hp phn ng trn
1000 trng hp. Dng loi huyt thanh ny tim cho 2000 ngi. Tnh xc sut
a) c 3 trng hp phn ng,
b) c nhiu nht 3 trng hp phn ng,
c) c nhiu hn 3 trng hp phn ng.
Gii
Do xc sut mt ngi b phn ng vi loi huyt thanh ny l
1
1000
nn vi X ch
s ngi b phn ng vi loi huyt thanh ny trong 2000 ngi th X B(2000; 0, 001) .
V p = 0, 001 < 0, 01 v np = 2 < 5 nn phn phi nh thc c th xp x bng phn
phi Poisson, ngha l
X P(2000 0, 001) = P(2) .
a) Vy, xc sut c ba trng hp phn ng trong 1000 trng hp l

P(X = 3) = e2
23 4 2
= e = 0,18 .
3! 3
55
b) Xc sut c nhiu nht 3 trng hp phn ng trong 1000 trng hp l

P(X 3) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3)
4
16 2
= e2 + 2e2 + e2 + e2 =
e = 0, 722.
3
3
c) V xc xut c nhiu hn 3 trng hp phn ng l

P(X > 3) = 1 P(X 3)
16 2
=1
e = 0, 278.
3
Bi 7. T l mt loi bnh bm sinh trong dn s l p = 0, 01 . Bnh ny cn s chm sc

c bit lc mi sinh. Mt nh bo sinh thng c 20 ca sinh trong mt tun. Tnh xc
sut
a) khng c trng hp no cn chm sc c bit,
b) c ng mt trng hp cn chm sc c bit,
c) c nhiu hn mt trng hp cn chm sc c bit.
Tnh bng quy lut nh thc ri dng quy lut Poisson so snh kt qu khi ta xp
x phn phi nh thc B(n; p) bng phn phi poisson P(np) .
Gii
Gi X l s trng hp cn chm sc c bit trong 20 ca sinh. Ta c
X B(20; 0, 01) .
a) Xc sut khng c trng hp no cn chm sc c bit l

P(X = 0) = C020 ( 0, 01) (1 0, 01) )
0
= ( 0, 99 )
20
20
= 0, 8179.
b) Xc sut c ng mt trng hp cn chm sc c bit l

P(X = 1) = C120 ( 0, 01) (1 0, 01) )
1
= 20 ( 0, 01) ( 0, 99 )
19
20 1
= 0,1652.
c) Xc sut c nhiu hn mt trng hp cn chm sc c bit l

P(X > 1) = 1 P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)
= 1 (0, 8179 + 0,1652) = 0, 0168.
56
Khi xp x phn phi nh thc bng phn phi Poisson, ngha l

X P(20 0, 01) = P(0, 2) , ta nhn c
P(X = 0) = e0,2 = 0, 8187 ,

P(X = 1) = e0,2
(0, 2)1
= 0,1637 ,
1!
v
P(X > 1) = 1 P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)
= 1 (0, 8187 + 0,1637) = 0, 01755.
Kt lun : Vi c mu 20 v t l bnh p = 0, 01 th kt qu ca hai loi phn phi

ny xp x nh nhau.
Bi 8. ng knh ca mt chi tit my do mt my tin t ng sn xut c phn phi
chun vi trung bnh = 50 mm v lch chun = 0, 05 mm. Chi tit my c xem l
t yu cu nu ng knh khng sai qu 0,1mm.
a) Tnh t l sn phm t yu cu.
b) Ly ngu nhin 3 sn phm. Tnh xc sut c t nht mt sn phm t yu cu.
Gii
Gi X l ng knh ca chi tit my th X N(; 2 ) , vi
= 50 mm v
= 0, 05 mm.
a) Xt bin c A : nhn c sn phm t yu cu, ta c

P ( A ) = P ( 49, 9 X 50,1) .
Mt khc, nu ta t Y =
X X 50
=
, th Y N(0;1) . Do
0, 05
49, 9 50 X 50 50,1 50
P ( 49, 9 X 50,1) = P
0, 05
0, 05
0, 05
= P ( 2 X 2 ) = ( 2 ) ( 2 ) = 2 ( 2 ) = 0, 9544.
Vy xc sut nhn c sn phm t yu cu l 95,44%.

b) Gi X l s sn phm t yu cu trong 3 sn phm ly ra th X B ( 3; 0, 9544 ) .
57
Suy ra xc sut c t nht mt sn phm t yu cu l

P ( X 1) = 1 P ( X = 0 )
= 1 C03 ( 0, 9544 ) (1 0, 9544 )
0
= 1 ( 0, 0456 ) = 0, 9999.
3
Bi 9. Trng lng X (tnh bng gam) mt loi tri cy c phn phi chun N(; 2 ) , vi
= 500(gam) v 2 = 16(gam2 ) . Tri cy thu hoch c phn loi theo trng lng nh
sau :
a) loi 1 : trn 505 gam,
b) loi 2 : t 495 n 505 gam,
c) loi 3 : di 495 gam.
Tnh t l mi loi.
Gii
Gi X l trng lng tri cy th X N ( ; 2 ) = N ( 500; 42 ) . Vi Y =
Y N ( 0;1) . Do
a) T l tri cy loi 1 l
X 500 505 500
P ( X > 505 ) = P
>
4
4
= P ( X > 1, 25 ) = ( + ) (1, 25 ) = 0, 5 (1, 25 ) = 0,10565.
b) T l tri cy loi 2 l
495 500 X 500 505 500
P ( 495 X 505 ) = P
4
4
4
= P ( 1, 25 Y 1, 25 ) = 0, 7887.
c) V t l ca loi 3 l
X 500 495 500
<
)
4
4
= P ( Y < 1, 25 ) = ( 1, 25 ) ( )
P ( X < 495 ) = P(
= (1, 25 ) + 0, 5 = 0,10565.
58
X 500
th
4
Vy, tri cy thu hoch c c khong 11% loi 1, 78% loi 2 v 11% loi 3.
Bi 10. Mt my sn xut ra sn phm loi A vi xc sut 0,485. Tnh xc sut trong 200
sn phm do my sn xut ra c t nht 95 sn phm loi A.
Gii
Gi X l s sn phm loi A trong 200 do my sn xut ra. Ta c X B(200; 0, 485)
Ta c np = 200 0, 485 = 97 > 5 v nq = 200 0, 515 = 103 > 5
2X = npq = 200 0, 485 0, 515 = 49, 955 (7, 07)2 .
Ta xp x phn phi nh thc bng phn phi chun, ngha l X N 97, ( 7, 07 ) . Vi

Y=
X 97
th Y N ( 0;1) . Do xc sut c t nht 95 sn phm loi A
7, 07
P ( X 95) = P (95 X 200)

95 97 X 97 200 97
= P
7, 07
7, 07
7, 07
= P (0, 28 Y 14, 57)
= (14, 57) (0, 28) = 0, 5 + 0,1103 = 0, 6103.
3.2.
Bi tp rn luyn
Bi 1. Xc sut mt con g trong ngy l 0,6. Nui 5 con.

1) Tnh xc sut trong mt ngy :
a) khng con no ,
b) c 5 con ,
c) c t nht 1 con ,
d) c t nht 2 con .
2) Nu mun mi ngy c trung bnh 100 trng th phi nui bao nhiu con g.
p s: 1) a) 0,01024; b) 0,07776; c) 0,98976; d) 0,91296; 2) 167 con.
Bi 2. Mt st cam c 10 tri trong c 4 tri h. Ly ngu nhin ra 3 tri.
a) Tnh xc sut ly c 3 tri h.
59
b) Tnh xc sut ly c 1 tri h

c) Tnh xc sut ly c t nht 1 tri h.
d) Tnh xc sut ly c nhiu nht 2 tri h.
p s: a) 0,033; b) 0,5; c) 0,83; d) 0,967.
Bi 3. Mt my dt c 4000 ng si. Xc sut mi ng si b t trong 1 pht l
0,0005. Tnh xc sut trong 1 pht
a) c 3 ng si b t,
b) c t nht 2 ng si b t.
p s: a) 0,18; b) 0,595.
Bi 4. Mt tng i bu in c cc cuc in thoi gi n xut hin ngu nhin, c
lp vi nhau v c tc trung bnh 2 cuc gi trong 1 pht. Bit rng s cuc gi trong
mt khong thi gian c nh c phn phi Poisson. Tm xc sut
a) c ng 5 cuc in thoi trong 2 pht,
b) khng c cuc in thoi no trong khong thi gian 30 giy,
c) c t nht 1 cuc in thoi trong khong thi gian 10 giy.
p s: a) 0,1563; b) 0,3679; c) 0,284.
Bi 5. Xc sut mt my sn xut ra ph phm l 0,02.
a) Tnh xc sut trong 10 sn phm do my sn xut c khng qu 1 ph phm.
b) Mt ngy my sn xut c 250 sn phm. Tm s ph phm trung bnh v s
ph phm tin chc nht ca my trong mt ngy.
p s: a) 0,98; b) EX = 5; Mod(X) = 5.
Bi 6. Xc sut mt my sn xut ra sn phm loi A l 0,25. Tnh xc sut trong
80 sn phm do my sn xut ra c t 25 n 30 sn phm loi A.
p s: 0,0936.
Bi 7. Gieo 100 ht ging ca mt loi nng sn. Xc sut ny mm ca mi ht l 0,8.
Tnh xc sut c t nht 90 ht ny mm.
60
p s: 0,0062.
Bi 8. C 8000 sn phm trong c 2000 sn phm khng t tiu chun k thut. Ly
ngu nhin (khng hon li) 10 sn phm. Tnh xc sut trong 10 sn phm ly ra c 2
sn phm khng t tiu chun.
p s: 0,282.
Bi 9. Gi s xc sut trng s l 1%. Mi tun mua mt v s. Hi phi mua v s lin
tip trong ti thiu bao nhiu tun c khng t hn 95% hy vng trng s t nht 1 ln.
p s: 296.
Bi 10. Bu in dng mt my t ng c a ch trn b th phn loi tng khu vc
gi i, my c kh nng c c 5000 b th trong 1 pht. Kh nng c sai 1 a ch
trn b th l 0,04% (xem nh vic c 5000 b th ny l 5000 php th c lp).
a) Tnh s b th trung bnh mi pht my c sai.
b) Tnh s b th tin chc nht trong mi pht my c sai.
c) Tnh xc sut trong mt pht my c sai t nht 3 b th.
p s: a) 2; b) 2; c) 0,3233.
Bi 11. Gi s t l dn c mc bnh A trong vng l 10%. Chn ngu nhin 1 nhm 400
ngi.
a) Vit cng thc tnh xc sut trong nhm c nhiu nht 50 ngi mc bnh A.
b) Tnh xp x xc sut bng phn phi chun.
p s: b) 0,9525.
Bi 12. Sn phm sau khi hon tt c ng thnh kin, mi kin gm 10 sn phm vi
t l th phm l 20%. Trc khi mua hng, khch hng mun kim tra bng cch t mi
kin chn ngu nhin 3 sn phm.
1) Lp bng phn phi xc sut ca s sn phm tt trong 3 sn phm ly ra.
2) Nu c 3 sn phm c ly ra u l sn phm tt th khch hng s ng mua
kin hng . Tnh xc sut khi kim tra 100 kin
a) c t nht 80 kin hng c mua,
61
b) c t nht 60 kin c mua.
p s: a)
X
0,066
0,467
0,467
b) 0,0038.
Bi 13. Mt trm cho thu xe Taxi c 3 chic xe. Hng ngy trm phi np thu 8USD
cho 1 chic xe (bt k xe c c thu hay khng). Mi chic c cho thu vi gi
20USD. Gi s s xe c yu cu cho thu ca trm trong 1 ngy l i lng ngu
nhin c phn phi Poisson vi = 2, 8 .
a) Tnh s tin trung bnh trm thu c trong mt ngy.
b) Gii bi ton trn trong trng hp trm c 4 chic xe.
c) Theo bn, trm nn c 3 hay 4 chic xe ?
p s: a) 20,76 ; b) ; c) .
Bi 14. ng knh ca mt loi chi tit do mt my sn xut c phn phi chun, k
vng 20mm, phng sai (0, 2mm)2 . Ly ngu nhin 1 chi tit my. Tnh xc sut
a) c ng knh trong khong 19,9mm n 20,3mm,
b) c ng knh sai khc vi k vng khng qu 0,3mm.
p s: a) 0,6247; b) 0,8664.
Bi 15. Trong h thng t gi hi oi th ni, s bin ng ca t gi hi oi chu s
tc ng ca nhiu nhn t v c th xem nh l bin ngu nhin c phn phi chun. Gi
s giai on no t gi ca USD vi VND c trung bnh l 18000 v lch chun
l 800. Tm xc sut trong mt ngy no .
a) T gi s cao hn 19000,
b) T gi s thp hn 17500,
c) T gi nm trong khong t 17500 n 19500.
p s: a) 0,1056; b) 0,2643; c) 0,7342.
62
Bi 16. Khi lng ca mt gi ng (ng bng my t ng) c phn phi chun.

Trong 1000 gi ng c 70 gi c khi lng ln hn 1015. Hy c lng xem c bao
nhiu gi ng c khi lng t hn 1008g. Bit rng khi lng trung bnh ca 1000
gi ng l 1012g.
p s: 24,4 gi.
Bi 17. Li sut (%) u t vo mt d n nm 2000 c coi nh 1 i lng ngu
nhin c phn phi theo quy lut chun. Theo nh gi ca u ban u t th li sut cao
hn 20% c xc sut 0,1587, v li sut cao hn 25% c xc sut l 0,0228. Vy kh
nng u t m khng b thua l l bao nhiu?.
p s: 0,9987.
Bi 18. Mt cng ty kinh doanh mt hng A d nh s p dng mt trong 2 phng n
kinh doanh. K hiu X1 l li nhun thu c khi p dng phng n th 1, X 2 l li
nhun thu c khi p dng phng n th 2. X1 , X 2 u c tnh theo n v triu
ng/ thng) v X1 N (140, 2500) , X 2 N ( 200, 3600) . Nu bit rng, cng ty tn ti
v pht trin th li nhun thu c t mt hng kinh doanh A phi t t nht 80 triu
ng/thng. Hy cho bit cng ty nn p dng phng n no kinh doanh mt hng A?
V sao?.
p s: P ( X 1 80) = 0, 8849 < P ( X 2 80) = 0, 9772, chn phng n th 2.
Bi 19. di ca mt chi tit my c tin ra c phn phi chun N( cm ; (0, 2cm)2 ) .
Sn phm coi l t nu di sai lch so vi di trung bnh khng qu 0,3cm.
a) Tnh xc sut chn ngu nhin 1 sn phm th c sn phm t yu cu.
b) Chn ngu nhin 3 sn phm. Tnh xc sut c t nht 2 sn phm t yu cu .
c) Nu sn phm tt m b loi trong kim tra th mc phi sai lm loi 1, nu sn
phm khng t m c nhn th mc phi sai lm loi 2. gi s kh nng mc phi sai
lm loi 1, loi 2 ln lt l 0,1 v 0,2. Tnh xc sut trong 3 ln kim tra hon ton
khng nhm ln.
p s a) 0,8664; b) 0,9512; c) 0,697.
63
Bi 20. Khi lng ca 1 loi tri cy c quy lut phn phi chun vi khi lng trung
bnh l 250g, lch chun v khi lng l 5g.
a) Mt ngi ly 1 tri t trong st tri cy ra. Tnh xc sut ngi ny ly c tri
loi 1 (tri loi 1 l tri c khi lng > 260g)
b) Nu ly c tri loi 1 th ngi ny s mua st . Ngi ny kim tra 100 st,
tnh xc sut mua c 6 st.
p s: a) 0,0228; b) 0,02.
Bi 21. C hai th trng A v B, li sut ca c phiu trn hai th trng ny l cc i lng
ngu nhin c phn phi chun, c lp vi nhau, c k vng v phng sai c cho trong
bng di y:
Trung bnh
Phng sai
Th trng A
19%
36
Th trng B
22%
100
a) Nu mc ch l t li sut ti thiu bng 10% th nn u t vo loi c phiu

no?
b) trnh ri ro th nn u t vo c phiu trn c hai th trng theo t l nh
th no?
p s: a) nn u t vo c phiu trn th trng loi A.
b) 74% vo th trng A cn li l th trng B.
Bi 22. Nghin cu chiu cao ca nhng ngi trng thnh, ngi ta nhn thy rng
chiu cao tun theo quy lut phn b chun vi trung bnh l 175cm v lch tiu
chun 4cm. Hy xc nh :
a) T l ngi trng thnh c chiu cao trn 180cm,
b) T l ngi trng thnh c chiu cao t 166cm n 177cm,
c) Gi tr h 0 , nu bit rng 33% ngi trng thnh c chiu cao di mc h 0 ,
d) Gii hn bin ng chiu cao ca 90% ngi trng thnh xung quanh gi tr
trung bnh ca n.
64
p s: a) 0,1056; b) 0,6793; c) 173,24; d) 6,6.

Bi 23. Chiu di ca chi tit c gia cng trn my t ng l bin ngu nhin tun
theo quy lut phn phi chun vi lch tiu chun l 0,01mm. Chi tit c coi l t
tiu chun nu kch thc thc t ca n sai lch so vi kch thc trung bnh khng vt
qu 0,02mm.
a) Tm t l chi tit khng t tiu chun.
b) Xc nh ng u (phng sai) cn thit ca sn phm t l chi tit khng
t tiu chun ch cn 1%.
2
p s: a) 0,9544; b) (7, 7.103 ) .

Bi 24. Khi lng X ca mt loi tri cy nng trng c bit c k vng 250gr v
phng sai 81 ( gr ) . Tri cy c ng thnh st, mi st 100 tri. Mi st c gi l
2
loi A nu khi lng khng di 25kg. Kim tra ngu nhin 100 st. Tnh xc sut :
a) c nhiu nht 60 st loi A,
b) t nht 45 st loi A.
p s: a) 0,0228; b) 0,1587.
Bi 25. Vic kim tra cc vin bi c tin hnh nh sau: nu vin bi khng lt qua l c
ng knh d1 song lt qua l c ng knh d 2 th vin bi c coi l t tiu chun,
nu khng th vin bi b loi. Bit ng knh cc vin bi sn xut ra l bin ngu nhin
c phn phi chun vi trung bnh l
d1 + d 2
d d1
v lch chun l 2
. Tm xc
2
4
sut vin bi b loi.

p s: 0,0456.
65
Chng 4. MU V C LNG THAM S

4.1.
Tm tt l thuyt
i vi s liu tng th c N phn t, X 1 , X 2 , ..., X N , ngi ta quan tm n cc tham s

sau:
1
- Trung bnh tng th: =
N
X ,
i
i =1
1
- Phng sai tng th: =
N
2
- T l tng th: p =
(X
) ,
2
i =1
K
, trong K l cc X i tha mt tnh cht no .
N
Khi khng c s liu cho ton b tng th, ngi ta dng mt mu X 1 , X 2 , ..., X n , trch
ta t tng th, v t ta c cc tham s tnh ton trn mu, ngi ta tm cch c lng cc
tham s tng th. C hai loi c lng:
4.1.1. c lng im
c lng im tt nht ca trung bnh tng th, , l trung bnh mu:
1
X=
n
X ,
i
i =1
c lng im tt nht ca phng sai tng th, 2 , l phng sai mu c hiu

chnh:
1
S =
n 1
2
X
(X
i =1
c lng im tt nht ca t l tng th, p , l t l mu:
f =
k
,
n
trong k l X i tha tnh cht tng ng trn mu.

4.1.2. c lng khong
a) c lng trung bnh tng th khi bit phng sai tng th 2 = 20 :
66
Ta dng thng k
Z=
( X )
N ( 0,1)
Trong thng k ny, X (trung bnh mu), n (c mu) bit, 0 ( lch chun tng th
) cho trc. Vi tin cy cho trc, ta c C = Z
2
Khong c lng ca trung bnh tng th , c k hiu
=XC

hay X C 0 , X + C 0
n
n
n
b) c lng trung bnh tng th khi cha bit phng sai tng th 2 :
Ta dng thng k
T=
( X )
SX
St(n 1) .
Trong thng k ny, X (trung bnh mu), n (c mu), SX ( lch chun mu c hiu
chnh) bit. Vi tin cy cho trc, ta c = 1 suy ra C = t n 1
Khong c lng ca trung bnh tng th , c k hiu
=XC
S
S
hay X C X , X + C X
n
n
n
SX
c) c lng phng sai tng th 2 khi bit trung bnh tng th = 0 :

Ta dng thng k
1
Y= 2
(X
i =1
0 ) 2 (n) .
2
Trong thng k ny, X i (s liu ca mu), n (c mu) bit, 0 (trung bnh tng th )
cho trc. Vi tin cy cho trc, ta chn khong tin cy cho Y : a, b
Vi a = 2 (n), b = 2 (n)
1
67
Khong c lng ca phng sai tng th 2
1

b
2
(X
i =1
0 )
1
;
a
(X
i =1
2
0 )
d) c lng phng sai tng th 2 khi cha bit trung bnh tng th :
Ta dng thng k
Y=
(n 1)S2X
2 (n 1) .
Trong thng k ny, S2X (phng sai mu c hiu chnh), n (c mu) bit, vi tin
cy cho trc, ta chn khong tin cy cho Y : a, b , vi
a = 2 (n 1), b = 2 (n 1)
1
(n 1)S2X (n 1)S2X
2
,
b
a
e) c lng t l tng th p :
Ta dng thng k
T=
( f p)
f (1 f )
St(n 1) .
Trong thng k ny, f (t l mu), n (c mu) bit. Vi tin cy cho trc, ta c
= 1 suy ra C = t n 1
Khong c lng ca t l tng th p , c k hiu
p = f C
4.2.
f (1 f )
f (1 f )
f (1 f )
hay p f C
;f + C
n
n
n
Bi tp mu
Bi 1. Phn tch Vitamin ca 17 mu, ta c X = 20mg . Bit rng lng Vitamin c phn
phi chun N ( ; 2 ) vi = 3, 98mg .
68
a) Hy c lng lng Vitamin trung bnh vi tin cy 95%.

b) Nu mun sai s c lng khng qu 1mg tin cy 95% th phi quan st t nht
my trng hp.
Gii
a) c lng trung bnh tng th khi bit phng sai tng th ta dng thng k
Z=
( X )
N(0,1) .
Vi s liu mu, ta c
Z=
( 20 )
3, 98
17
N(0,1).
tin cy = 0, 95 , ta tm c C = 1, 96 . Do c lng lng Vitamin trung

bnh cho bi
= XC
0
n
= 20 1, 96
3, 98
17
v ta nhn c khong c lng 18,11; 21, 89 .

b) Ta c sai s c lng l C
phi c C
0
n
0
n
nn nu mun sai s c lng khng qu 1mg, ta
Vi tin cy 0,95, th C = 1, 96 v ta nhn c bt phng trnh

2
3, 98
n C 0 = 1, 96
= 60, 85 .
1
1
Vy phi phn tch t nht 61 trng hp.

Bi 2. Doanh s ca mt ca hng l bin s ngu nhin c phn phi chun vi lch
chun l 2 triu/thng. iu tra ngu nhin doanh s ca 600 ca hng c quy m tng t
nhau tm c doanh s trung bnh l 8,5 triu. Vi tin cy 95% hy c lng doanh s
trung bnh ca cc ca hng thuc quy m .
69
Gii
c lng trung bnh tng th khi bit phng sai tng th ta dng thng k
Z=
( X )
N(0,1) .
Vi s liu mu, ta c
Z=
( 8, 5 )
600
N(0,1).
tin cy = 0, 95 , ta tm c C = 1, 96 . Do c lng doanh s trung bnh
cho bi
= XC
0
n
= 8, 5 1, 96
2
600
v ta nhn c khong c lng 8, 34; 8, 66 .

Bi 3. o chiu su ca bin bng mt loi dng c c sai s chun tun theo quy lut chun
vi phng sai bng 400 (m 2 ) . Phi o bao nhiu ln c lp vi nhau kt qu c sai s
khng qu 15 m vi tin cy 95%.
Gii
Ta c sai s c lng l C
c C
0
n
0
n
nn nu mun sai s c lng khng qu 15 m, ta phi
15
Vi tin cy 0,95, th C = 1, 96 v ta nhn c bt phng trnh

2
20
n C 0 = 1, 96 = 6, 83 .
15
15
Vy phi o t nht 7 ln.
Bi 4. o ng knh X(mm) ca mt chi tit my do mt my tin t ng sn xut, ta ghi
nhn c s liu nh sau:
X
12,00 12,05 12,10 12,15 12,20 12,25 12,30 12,35 12,40

70
10
a) Tnh trung bnh mu v lch chun ca mu c hiu chnh.

b) c lng ng knh trung bnh tng th tin cy 95%.
c) Nu mun sai s c lng khng qu 0,02mm tin cy 95% th phi quan st t
nht my trng hp.
Gii
a) Ta c c mu n = 53, trung bnh mu X = 12, 21, lch chun mu c hiu
chnh SX = 0,103
b) c lng trung bnh tng th khi cha bit phng sai tng th ta dng thng
k
T=
( X )
SX
St(n 1) .
Vi s liu mu, ta c
T=
(12, 21 )
53
0,103
St(52) N(0,1).
tin cy = 0, 95 , ta tm c C = 1, 96 . Do c lng ng knh trung

bnh cho bi
= XC
SX
n
= 12, 21 1, 96
0,103
53
v ta nhn c khong c lng 12,18;12, 24 .

c) Ta c sai s c lng l C
ta phi c C
SX
n
SX
n
nn nu mun sai s c lng khng qu 0,02mm,
0, 02
Vi tin cy 0.95, th C = 1, 96 v ta nhn c bt phng trnh

2
0,103
n C X = 1, 96
= 101, 89 .
0,
02
0,
02
71
Vy phi quan st t nht 102 trng hp.

Bi 5. Cn ngu nhin 45 con heo 3 thng tui trong mt tri chn nui, ta c kt qu sau
Xi
35
37
39
41
43
45
47
ni
10
11
Gi s khi lng X (kg) tun theo quy lut phn phi chun.
a) Hy c lng khong cho khi lng trung bnh cc con heo 3 thng tui trong tri
trn vi tin cy 95%.
b) Heo c khi lng 38kg l heo t tiu chun. Hy tm c lng t l heo t
chun vi tin cy 90%.
Gii
Vi s liu, ta c : c mu n = 45 , trung bnh X = 40, 96 , phng sai S2X = 9, 73 .
a) c lng trung bnh tng th khi cha bit phng sai tng th ta dng thng
k
T=
( X )
SX
St(n 1) .
Vi s liu mu, ta c
T=
( 40, 96 )
45
3,12
St(44) N(0,1).
tin cy = 0, 95 , ta tm c C = 1, 96 . Do c lng khi lng trung

bnh cho bi
= XC
SX
n
= 40, 96 1, 96
3,12
45
v ta nhn c khong c lng 40, 5kg; 41, 87kg .

b) T l heo t tiu chun l f =
10 +11 + 8 + 5 + 3
45
c t l tng th p , ta dng thng k

72
0, 8222 .
T=
( f p)
f (1 f )
St(n 1) .
Vi s liu mu, ta c
T=
( 0, 8222 p )
45
0, 8222(1 0, 8222)
St(44) N(0,1).
tin cy = 0, 9 , ta tm c C = 1, 64 . Do c lng t l p cho bi
f (1 f )
0, 8222(1 0, 8222)
= 0, 8222 1, 64
,
n
45
p = f C
v ta nhn c khong c lng 0, 7282; 0, 9162

Bi 6. Ngi ta o ion Na + trn mt s ngi v ghi nhn li c kt qu nh sau
129, 132, 140, 141, 138, 143, 133, 137, 140, 143, 138, 140
a) Tnh trung bnh mu X v phng sai mu S2X .
b) c lng trung bnh v phng sai 2 ca tng th tin cy 0,95.
c) Nu mun sai s c lng trung bnh khng qu = 1 vi tin cy 0,95 th phi quan
st mu gm t nht my ngi ?
Gii
a) T cc s liu nhn c ca mu, ta c
n = 12 , X = 137, 83 , S2X = 19, 42 , v SX = 4, 41 .
b) c lng trung bnh tng th , ta dng thng k

T=
(X )
SX
St ( n 1) ,
Vi s liu mu, ta c
T=
(137, 83 )
4, 41
12
St (11) .
73
Vi tin cy = 0, 95 , ta c C = t11
= 2, 201 . Do c lng trung bnh cho bi
0.05
SX
= XC
4, 41
= 137, 83 2, 201
12
v ta nhn c khong c lng 135, 01;140, 63 .

c lng phng sai tng th khi cha bit trung bnh ca tng th, ta dng thng
k
Y=
(n 1)S2X
2 (n 1) ,
2
ngha l
Y=
11 (19, 42)
2
2 (11) .
Vi tin cy = 0, 95 , ta tm c a v b sao cho

P ( Y a ) = P ( Y b) =
1
.
2
T bng phn phi xc sut ca phn phi Chi-Bnh phng, ta tm c

a 2 (11) = 3, 816 , v b 2 (11) = 21, 925 .
1
Do
3, 816
(n 1)S2X
2
21, 925 ,
v ta nhn c bt ng thc
11 (19, 42 )
21, 925
11 (19, 42 )
3, 816
T suy ra c lng cho phng sai tng th l 9, 74; 55, 98 .

c) Sai s ca c lng trung bnh cho bi C
gii bt phng trnh
74
SX
n
, nn sai s ny khng qu = 1 , ta
SX
n
= 1.
Suy ra
S
n C X

4, 41
= 2, 201
= 94, 2 .
1
Vy phi quan st t nht 95 ngi.

Bi 7. Kho st ch tiu X ca mt loi sn phm, ngi ta quan st mt mu v c kt qu
sau
X(cm)
11 - 15
15 - 19
19 23
23 - 27
27 - 31
31 - 35
35 - 39
20
16
16
13
18
S sn phm
Gi s X c phn phi chun. Hy c lng phng sai ca X vi tin cy 95% trong

cc trng hp sau:
a) Bit trung bnh tng th ca X l 25 cm.
b) Cha bit gi tr trung bnh ca X.
Gii
a) c lng phng sai tng th khi bit trung bnh tng th 0 = 25 , ta dng
thng k
1
Y= 2
(X
i =1
0 ) 2 (n) .
2
Vi tin cy = 0, 95 , ta chn khong tin cy cho Y : a, b

Vi a = 20.975 (100) = 77, 929, b = 20.025 (100) = 129, 561
Ta lp bng
X 0
12
12
20
16
16
13
18
T ta tm c c mu n = 100,
n i ( X i 0 ) = 5728
2

75
1

b
2
i =1
ni ( X i 0 )
1
,
a
i =1
2
n i ( X i 0 ) = 44, 211; 73, 503
b) c lng phng sai tng th khi cha bit trung bnh ca tng th, ta dng
thng k
Y=
(n 1)S2X
2 (n 1) ,
2
ngha l
Y=
99 ( 55, 991)
2 ( 99) .
Vi tin cy = 0, 95 , ta tm c a v b sao cho

T bng phn phi xc sut ca phn phi Chi-Bnh phng, ta tm c
a = 20.975 (99) = 77, 929, b = 20.025 (99) = 129, 561 .

(n 1)S2X (n 1)S2X

,
= 42, 784; 71,130
b
a
Bi 8. Trong kho c 10000 hp tht. Kim tra ngu nhin 100 hp thy c 5 hp b hng.
Vi tin cy 95%, tnh xem trong kho c khong bao nhiu hp b hng.
Gii
Gi N l s hp tht b hng trong kho
T l (tng th) nhng hp b hng: p =
T l (mu) nhng hp b hng: f =
N
.
10000
5
= 0, 05 .
100
T=
( f p)
f (1 f )
St(n 1) .
Vi s liu mu, ta c
76
T=
( 0, 05 p )
100
0, 05(1 0, 05)
St(99) N(0,1).
p = f C
f (1 f )
0, 05(1 0, 05)
= 0, 05 1, 96
,
n
100
v ta nhn c khong c lng p 0, 00728; 0, 09272 .

Vy s hp b hng nm trong khong N 73; 927 .
Bi 9. Trong kho c 1000 sn phm ca x nghip A sn xut b ln vi nhiu sn phm ca
x nghip B sn xut. Ly ngu nhin t kho ra 100 sn phm th thy c 9 sn phm ca x
nghip A sn xut. Vi tin cy 90% hy c lng s sn phm ca x nghip B sn xut
c trong kho.
Gii
Gi N l s sn phm ca x nghip B sn xut c trong kho
T l (tng th) sn phm ca x nghip A sn xut c trong kho: p =
T l (mu) sn phm ca x nghip A sn xut c trong kho: f =
1000
.
1000 + N
9
= 0, 09 .
100
T=
(f p)
f (1 f )
St(n 1) .
Vi s liu mu, ta c
T=
( 0, 09 p )
100
0, 09(1 0, 09)
St(99) N(0,1).
p = f C
f (1 f )
0, 09(1 0, 09)
= 0, 09 1, 64
,
n
100
v ta nhn c khong c lng p 0, 0431; 0,1369 .

77
Vy s hp b hng nm trong khong N 6305; 22202 .

Bi 10. S liu thng k v doanh s bn hng ca mt siu th trong 7 thng qua l :
Doanh s
20 - 30 30 - 35 35 - 40 40 - 45
45 - 50
50- 55
55 60
60 - 70
38
30
15
(triu /ngy)
S ngy
10
25
30
40
a) c lng doanh s bn trung bnh trong mt ngy ca siu th ny vi tin cy

95%.
b) Nhng ngy c doanh s bn trn 50 triu l nhng ngy t hng. Hy c lng s
ngy bn t hng siu th ny trong mt nm (360 ngy) vi tin cy 99%.
Gii
Vi s liu, ta c : c mu n = 196 , trung bnh X = 44,133 , phng sai SX = 9, 382 .
a) c lng trung bnh tng th khi cha bit phng sai tng th ta dng thng
k
T=
( X )
SX
St(n 1) .
Vi s liu mu, ta c
T=
( 44,133 )
9, 382
196
St(195) N(0,1).
tin cy = 0, 95 , ta tm c C = 1, 96 . Do c lng khi lng trung

bnh cho bi
= XC
SX
n
= 44,133 1, 96
9, 382
196
v ta nhn c khong c lng 42, 82; 45, 45 .

b) T l nhng ngy bn t hng trong nm l f =
T=
( f p)
f (1 f )
St(n 1) .
78
30 +15 + 8
196
0, 27041 .
Vi s liu mu, ta c
T=
( 0, 27041 p )
196
0, 27041(1 0, 27041)
St(195) N(0,1).
p = f C
f (1 f )
0, 27041(1 0, 27041)
= 0, 27041 2, 58
,
n
196
v ta nhn c khong c lng 0,1130; 0, 4278 .

Gi N l s ngy bn t hng trong nm
T l (tng th) nhng ngy bn t hng trong nm: p =
N
.
360
Vy s ngy bn t hng trong nm : N 41;154 .

4.3.
Bi tp rn luyn
Bi 1. Quan st thi gian cn thit sn xut mt chi tit my, ta thu c s liu cho bng
sau
Khong thi gian
S ln quan st
(pht)
20 - 25
25 - 30
14
30 - 35
26
35 - 40
32
40 - 45
14
45 - 50
50 - 55
Tnh trung bnh mu X, phng sai mu c hiu chnh S2X .

Bi 2. o di ca mt loi trc xe, ta c kt qu
Nhm 18,4-18,6 18,6-18,8 18,8 -19 19 -19,2 19,2-19,4 19,4-19,6 19,6-19,8
ni
20
41
79
19
Hy c lng im di trung bnh v phng sai ca trc xe.

p s: X = 19,133; S2X = 0, 539 .
Bi 3. o sc bn chu lc ca mt loi ng th nghim, ngi ta thu c b s liu sau
4500
6500
5200
4800
4900
5125
6200
5375
T kinh nghim ngh nghip, ngi ta cng bit rng sc bn c phn phi chun vi
lch chun = 300 . Hy c lng sc bn trung bnh ca loi ng trn, vi tin cy
90%.
p s: 5151; 5499 .
Bi 4. Trc bu c, ngi ta phng vn ngu nhin 2000 c tri th thy c 1380 ngi ng
h mt ng c vin K. Vi tin cy 95%, hi ng c vin thu c ti thiu bao nhiu
phn trm phiu bu ?
p s: 67%.
Bi 5. a) Mun c lng t l bnh st xut huyt Tp. H Ch Minh vi sai s khng qu
3% tin cy 95% th phi quan st t nht bao nhiu ngi ?
b) Gi s quan st 100 ngi thy c 20 ngi b bnh st xut huyt. Hy c lng
t l bnh st xut huyt Tp. H Ch Minh tin cy 97%. Nu mun sai s c lng
khng qu 3% tin cy 95% th phi quan st t nht bao nhiu ngi ?
p s: a) 1068 ngi; b) p 0,1132; 0, 2868 ; 683 ngi.
Bi 6. c lng xc sut mc bnh gan vi tin cy 90% v sai s khng vt qu 2%

th cn phi khm t nht bao nhiu ngi, bit rng t l mc bnh gan thc nghim cho
bng 0,9.
p s: 606 ngi.
Bi 7. Mun bit trong ao c bao nhiu c, ngi ta bt ln 2000 con, nh du xong li th
xung h. Sau mt thi gian, ngi ta bt ln 500 con v thy c 20 con c c nh du ca
ln bt trc. Da vo kt qu , hy c lng s c c trong h vi tin cy 95%.
80
p s: 34865; 87719 .
Bi 8. c th d on c s lng chim thng ngh ti vn nh mnh, ngi ch bt

89 con, em eo khoen cho chng ri th i. Sau mt thi gian, ng bt ngu nhin c
120 con v thy c 7 con c eo khoen. Hy d on s chim gip ng ch vn tin
cy 99%.
p s: 784; 27812 .
Bi 9. Sn lng mi ngy ca mt phn xng l bin ngu nhin tun theo lut chun. Kt
qu thng k ca 9 ngy cho ta :
27
26
21
28
25
30
26
23
26
Hy c lng sn lng trung bnh v phng sai mi ngy, vi tin cy 95%.

p s: 23, 75; 27, 81 ; 2 3,166; 25, 468 .
Bi 10. Trn tp mu gm 100 s liu, ngi ta tnh c X = 0,1; SX = 0, 014 . Hy c

lng gi tr trung bnh tng th, vi tin cy 95%.
p s: 0, 0973; 0,103 .
Bi 11. Cn th 100 qu cam, ta c b s liu sau :

Khi lng (g)
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
S qu
15
26
28
a) Hy c lng khi lng trung bnh cc qu cam tin cy 95%.

b) Cam c khi lng di 34g c coi l cam loi 2. Tm c lng t l cam loi 2
vi tin cy 90% .
p s: a) 35, 539; 36, 241 ; b) p
0, 0143; 0, 0857 .
Bi 12. Chiu di ca mt loi sn phm c xut khu hng lot l bin ngu nhin phn
phi chun vi = 100mm va 2 = 42 mm 2 . Kim tra ngu nhin 25 sn phm. Kh nng
81
chiu di trung bnh ca s sn phm kim tra nm trong khong t 98mm n 101mm l
bao nhiu.
p s: 0,8828.
Bi 13. Chn ngu nhin 36 cng nhn ca x nghip th thy lng trung bnh l 380 ngn
/thng. Gi s lng cng nhn tun theo lut chun vi = 14 ngn ng. Vi tin cy
95%, hy c lng mc lng trung bnh ca cng nhn trong ton x nghip.
p s: 375, 427; 384, 573 .
Bi 14. im trung bnh mn ton ca 100 th sinh d thi vo HKT l 5 vi lch chun
mu iu chnh SX = 2, 5 .
a) c lng im trung bnh mn ton ca ton th th sinh vi tin cy l 95%.
b) Vi sai s 0,25 im. Hy xc nh tin cy.
p s: a) 4, 51; 5, 49 ; b) 68,26%.
Bi 15. Tui th ca mt loi bng n c bit theo quy lut chun vi lch chun 100
gi.
a) Chn ngu nhin 100 bng n th nghim, thy mi bng tui th trung bnh l
1000 gi. Hy c lng tui th trung bnh ca bng n x nghip A sn xut vi tin cy
l 95%.
b) Vi chnh xc l 15 gi. Hy xc nh tin cy.
c) Vi chnh xc l 25 gi v tin cy l 95% th cn th nghim bao nghiu bng.
p s: a) 980, 4;1019, 6 ; b) 86,64%; c) 62.
Bi 16. Khi lng cc bao bt m ti mt ca hng lng thc theo quy lut chun. Kim
tra 20 bao, thy khi lng trung bnh ca mi bao bt m l 48kg, v phng sai mu c
iu chnh l S2X = ( 0, 5kg ) .
2
82
a) Vi tin cy 95%, hy c lng khi lng trung bnh ca mt bao bt m thuc

ca hng.
b) Vi chnh xc l 0,26kg. Hy xc nh tin cy.
c) Vi chnh xc l 160g v tin cy l 95%, tnh c mu.
p s: a) 47, 766; 48, 234 ; b) 97%; c) 43.
Bi 17. c lng t l sn phm xu ca mt kho hp, ngi ta kim tra ngu nhin
100 hp thy c 11 hp xu.
a) c lng t l sn phm xu ca kho hp vi tin cy 94%.
b) Vi sai s cho php = 3% , hy xc nh tin cy.
p s: a) p 0, 051; 0,169 ; b) 66,3%.
Bi 18. L tri cy ca mt ch ca hng c ng thnh st mi st 100 tri. Kim tra 50

st thy c 450 tri khng t tiu chun.
a) c lng t l tri cy khng t tiu chun ca l hng vi tin cy 95%.
b) Mun c lng t l tri cy khng t tiu chun vi chnh xc 0,5%, tin
cy t c l bao nhiu.
c) Mun c lng t l tri cy khng t tiu chun vi tin cy 99% v chnh
xc 1% th cn kim tra bao nhiu st.
d) Mun c lng t l tri cy khng t tiu chun vi tin cy 99% th chnh
xc t c l bao nhiu?
p s: a) p 0, 082; 0, 098 ; b) 78,5%; c) 0,012; d) 55 st.
Bi 19. iu tra nng sut la trn din tch 100 hec ta trng la ca mt vng, ta thu c
bng s liu sau :
Nng sut (t/ha)
41
44
45
46
48
52
54
Din tch (ha)
10
20
30
15
10
10
83
a) Hy c lng nng sut la trung bnh ca vng vi tin cy 95%?

b) Nhng tha rung c nng sut t 48t/ha tr ln l nhng tha c nng sut cao.
Hy c lng t l din tch c nng sut cao trong vng vi tin cy 97%.
p s: a) 45, 353; 46, 647 ; b) p 0,156; 0, 344 .
Bi 20. o ng knh ca 100 chi tit do mt my sn sut kt qu cho bng sau :

ng knh (mm)
S chi tit
19,80 - 19,85
19,85 - 19,90
19,90 - 19,95
16
19,95 - 20,00
28
20,00 - 20,05
23
20,05 - 20,10
14
20,10 - 20,15
20,15 - 20,20
Quy nh nhng chi tit c ng knh 19,9mm n 20,1mm l nhng chi tit t tiu
chun.
a) c lng ng knh trung bnh ca nhng chi tit t tiu chun vi tin cy
95%.
b) c lng t l chi tit t tiu chun vi tin cy 95%.
c) Mun c lng ng knh trung bnh ca chi tit t tiu chun mun chnh
xc t 0,02mm v khi c lng t l chi tit t tiu chun mun chnh xc l 5%, vi
cng tin cy l 99% th cn o thm bao nhiu chi tit na.
p s: a) 19, 986; 20, 008 ; b) p 0, 733; 0, 887 ; c) 310.
84
Bi 21. Kch thc ca mt chi tit my l mt i lng ngu nhin c phn phi chun.
Trong mt mu gm 30 chi tit my c kim tra, ta tnh c X = 0, 47cm v
SX = 0, 032 cm. Tm khong tin cy cho phng sai v trung bnh chun ca kch thc ca
ton b cc chi tit my vi tin cy 95%.

p s: 0, 482; 0, 458 ; 2 0, 00065; 0, 00185 .
Bi 22. Ly 28 mu xi mng ca mt nh my sn xut xi mng kim tra. Kt qu kim

tra v sc chu lc R (kg/cm2) nh sau:
10,0 13,0 13,7 11,5 11,0 13,5 12,2
13,0 10,0 11,0 13,5 11,5 13,0 12,2
13,5 10,0 10,0 11,5 13,0 13,7 14,0
13,0 13,7 13,0 11,5 10,0 11,0 13,0
Vi tin cy 95% hy c lng:
a) Sc chu lc trung bnh ca xi mng do nh my sn sut.
b) Phng sai ca sc chu lc.
p s: a) 11, 64;12, 64 ; 2 1,156; 3, 427 .
85
Chng 5. KIM NH GI THUYT

5.1.
Tm tt l thuyt.
5.1.1.Kim nh tham s.
Quan st mu X 1 , X 2 , ..., X n c lp v c cng phn phi chun N ( ; 2 ) , ta c mt
s bi ton kim nh tham s sau :
5.1.1.1. So snh trung bnh tng th vi mt s 0 cho trc.
Nu bit phng sai tng th 2 = 02 , ta c m hnh
H : =
0
a)
H
:
Khi H ng, ta c
Z=
(X )
0
N ( 0;1)
b) Vi nguy c sai lm , hay tin cy = 1 , cho trc, ta tm c khong tin

cy [ C, C] cho Z.
c) Do X , n c c t mu, 0 , 0 cho trc nn ta tnh c gi tr c th ca Z.
d) So snh Z vi khong tin cy :
Z > C : bc b H,
Z C : chp nhn H.
Nu cha bit phng sai tng th 2 , ta dng m hnh

H : =
0
a)
H
:
Khi H ng, ta c
86
(X )
0
SX
St ( n 1) .

cy [ C, C] cho T.
c) Do X , SX , n c c t mu, 0 cho trc nn ta tnh c gi tr c th ca T.
d) So snh T vi khong tin cy :
T > C : bc b H,
T C : chp nhn H.
5.1.1.2. So snh t l tng th, p, vi mt s p0 cho trc.

Ta dng m hnh
H : p = p
0
a)
H
:
p
p
0
Khi H ng, ta c
Z=
( f p0 )
p0q 0
N ( 0;1) ,
vi q 0 = 1 p 0 v f l t l ca mu.
cy [ C, C] cho Z.
c) Do f, n c c t mu, p0 cho trc nn ta tnh c gi tr c th ca Z.
d) So snh Z vi khong tin cy :
Z > C : bc b H,
Z C : chp nhn H.
87
5.1.1.3. So snh hai trung bnh X v Y ca hai tng th.

so snh trung bnh ca hai tng th tha phn phi chun, ta gi s chng c cng
phng sai 2 cha bit v da vo hai mu quan st c lp ly t hai tng th ny,
X 1 , X 2 , ..., X n ; X i N ( X ; 2 ) ;
Y1 , Y2 , ..., Ym ; Yi N ( Y ; 2 ) .
Ta so snh hai trung bnh X v Y bng cch dng m hnh

H : =
X
Y
a)
H
:
X
Y
Khi H ng, ta c
T=
vi S2 =
XY
S
1
n
1
m
St ( n + m 2 ) ,
( n 1) S2X + ( m 1) S2Y .
n+m2

cy [ C, C] cho T.
c) T hai mu, ta tnh c cc gi tr S2X , S2Y , S2 , n, m, X , Y v suy ra gi tr c th
ca T.
T > C : bc b H,
T C : chp nhn H.
5.1.1.4. So snh hai t l p X v p Y ca hai tng th.

so snh t l ca hai tng th, ta cng da vo cc t l ly ra t hai mu quan st
c lp t hai tng th ny,
X1 , X 2 , ..., X n ;
88
Y1 , Y2 , ..., Ym ;
trong X i , Yj ch ly cc gi tr l 0 hay 1. Khi , f X =

X v f Y =
1
m
1
n
l t l (tn sut) ca mu
i =1
l t l (tn sut) ca mu Y.
j=1
Ta so snh hai t l p X v p Y bng cch dng m hnh

H : p = p
X
Y
a)
H
:
p
p
X
Y
Khi H ng, ta c
T=
vi p =
fX fY
pq ( n1 +
1
m
St ( n + m 2) ,
nf X + mf Y
, q = 1 p.
n+m

cy [ C, C] cho T.
c) T hai mu, ta tnh c cc gi tr f X , f Y , p, q, n, m v suy ra gi tr c th ca T.
T > C : bc b H,
T C : chp nhn H.
5.1.1.5. So snh hai phng sai 2X v 2Y ca hai tng th.

so snh phng sai ca hai tng th tha phn phi chun, ta da vo hai mu quan
st c lp ly t hai tng th ny,
X 1 , X 2 , ..., X n ; X i N ( X ; 2X ) ;
Y1 , Y2 , ..., Ym ; Yi N ( Y ; 2Y ) .
89
T cc mu, ta tnh c cc phng sai mu S2X , S2Y v khng mt tnh tng qut, ta
c th gi s SX SY . Ta so snh hai phng sai 2X v 2Y bng cch dng m hnh
H : 2X = 2Y
2
2
H : X > Y
a)
Khi H ng, ta c
F=
S2X
F ( n 1, m 1) .
S2Y

cy [ 0, C] cho F.
c) T hai mu, ta tnh c cc gi tr S2X , S2Y v suy ra gi tr c th ca F.
d) So snh F vi khong tin cy :
F > C : bc b H,
F C : chp nhn H.
5.1.2. Kim nh phi tham s.

Trong trng hp tng th c chia thnh r phm tr khc nhau. Khi , ng vi mi
mt mu, ta c mt b s liu gm r s hng m ta gi l b s liu quan st
N1 , N2 , ..., Nr .
Khi , cc php kim nh phi tham s nhm mc ch so snh trc tip cc b s liu
nh vy vi nhau hay so snh chng vi mt b s liu l thuyt no .
5.1.2.1. So snh b s liu quan st vi b s liu l thuyt.
Trong trng hp ny, vi mt b s liu quan st,
N1 , N2 , ..., Nr ,
ta cn so snh n vi b s liu l thuyt

N1 , N2 , ..., Nr ,
90
trong b s liu l thuyt ny c tnh theo quy lut phn phi cc phm tr trong tng
th cho trc.
Khi , nh l Pearson cho ta m hnh kim nh sau
a)
H : Cc b s liu quan st v l thuyt ging nhau
H : Cc b s liu quan st v l thuyt khc nhau
Vi
r
Q=
(N
i =1
Ni )
Ni
(N
=
N1 )
N1
(N
+
N2 )
N2
(N
+ ... +
Nr )
Nr
th phn phi xc sut ca Q cho bi :

Q 2 ( r 1) , nu khng c tham s no cn c lng trong qu trnh tnh cc s
liu l thuyt.
Q 2 ( r k 1) , nu c k tham s cn c lng trong qu trnh tnh cc s liu l
thuyt. Chng hn, nu ta cn c lng trung bnh tng th , th Q 2 ( r 2) ;

nu ta cn c lng c trung bnh ln phng sai tng th ( ; 2 ) th Q 2 ( r 3) .
cy [ 0, C] cho Q.
c) Tnh gi tr c th ca Q.
d) So snh Q vi khong tin cy :
Q > C : bc b H,
Q C : chp nhn H.
5.1.2.2. So snh cc b s liu quan st vi nhau.

Trong trng hp ny, ta so snh k b s liu quan st
N1,1 , N1,2 , ..., N1,r ,
N2,1 , N2,2 , ..., N2,r ,
91
Nk,1 , Nk,2 , ..., Nk,r .
vi nhau m ngi ta cn gi l so snh cc s liu trong mt bng :

P. tr 1
P. tr 2
...
P. tr r
B 1
N1,1
N1,2
...
N1,r
B 2
N2,1
N2,2
...
N2,r
Nk,1
Nk,2
...
Nk,r .
...
B k
Ngi ta quy bi ton so snh k b s liu ny vi nhau (mi b s liu gm r phm

tr) bng cch coi n nh l mt b s liu gm k r phm tr v so snh n vi mt b s
liu l thuyt. V nh vy, ta chuyn v bi ton kho st trong phn 5.1.2.1.
Mun vy, ta thnh lp cc tng hng v tng ct nh sau
P. tr 1
P. tr 2
...
P. tr r
B 1
N1,1
N1,2
...
N1,r
H1
B 2
N2,1
N2,2
...
N2,r
H2
...
...
...
...
...
...
B k
Nk,1
Nk,2
...
Nk,r .
Hk
C1
C2
...
Cr
trong
r
Hi =
i, j
l tng s s liu quan st ca b th i (hng th i), vi i = 1, 2, ..., k ;
i, j
l tng s s liu quan st ca phm tr th j (ct th j), vi j = 1, 2, ..., r ,
j=1
Cj =
N
i =1
v
92
N=
i=1
Hi =
i=1
N i, j =
j=1
Cj =
j=1
i =1
j=1
i, j
l tng s ton b s liu quan st.
Khi , nu k b s liu ny l nh nhau, th

t l ca cc phm tr 1 trong tng th l p1 =
C1
N
t l ca cc phm tr 2 trong tng th l p 2 =
C2
N
...
t l ca cc phm tr r trong tng th l p r =
Cr
N
T , ta xy dng c b s liu l thuyt gm k r s hng lit k trong bng nh

sau
P. tr 1
P. tr 2
...
P. tr r
B 1
N1,1
N1,2
...
N1,r
B 2
N2,1
N2,2
...
N2,r
Nk,1
Nk,2
...
Nk,r .
...
B k
trong
Ni. j = p j Hi =
C j Hi
N
Ch rng khi , ta dng thng k

k
Q=
i =1
(N
j=1
i, j
N i, j )
Ni, j
v v trong qu trnh thnh lp b s liu l thuyt, ta c lng k + r 2 s hng nn ta

c m hnh kim nh sau
a)
H :
H :
Cc b s liu quan st l ging nhau
93
Cc b s liu quan st l khc nhau

Nu H ng th
Q 2 ( k r ( k + r 2 ) 1) 2 ( ( k 1) ( r 1) ) .

cy [ 0, C] cho Q.
c) Tnh gi tr c th ca Q.
d) So snh Q vi khong tin cy :
Q > C : bc b H,
Q C : chp nhn H.
Ch :
i ) Cng thc tnh Q nu trn cn c th vit li thnh (xem chng minh trong phn
ph lc)
Q = N
i =1
j=1
(N )
1 .
Hi C j
i, j
ii) Trng hp ta so snh hai bng s liu nhng li so snh tng cp s liu vi
nhau. Chng hn, vi hai bng s liu
X1
X2
...
Xn
Y1
Y2
...
Yn
ta khng phi ta so snh hai b s liu vi nhau m l so snh s sai khc ca tng cp s
liu xem n c ngha khng. Do vy, ta xt hiu s
D i = X i Yi , vi i = 1, 2, ..., n .
Khi , gi thit H : Hai b s liu ging nhau tng cp

c thay bng
H : trung bnh ca b s liu Di bng 0,
94
v ta nhn c bi ton so snh trung bnh (ca mt b s liu) vi mt s (s 0) kho st

trong phn 5.1.1.
Tm li, ta c m hnh cho bi ton so snh hai b s liu tng cp ny nh sau
a) Lp hiu s tng cp ca hai b s liu D = X Y .
b)
H :
H :
Hai b s liu ging nhau tng cp

Hai b s liu khng ging nhau tng cp
v ta nhn c gi thit tng ng

H : D = 0
H : D 0
5.2.
Bi tp mu
Kim nh tham s
Bi 1. o cholesterol ( n v mg%) cho mt nhm ngi, ta ghi nhn li c
Chol.
S ngi
150
160 -
170 -
180 -
190 -
200 -
160
170
180
190
200
210
11
a) Tnh trung bnh X v phng sai S2X .

b) Tm khong c lng cho trung bnh cholesterol trong dn s X , tin cy 95%.
c) C ti liu cho bit lng cholesterol trung bnh l 0 = 175 mg%. Gi tr ny c ph hp
vi mu quan st khng ? ( kt lun vi = 0, 05 ).
Gii
a) tnh trung bnh X v phng sai S2X , ta lp bng
X i 175
5
n i Yi
n i Yi2
-4
-12
48
165
-2
-18
36
175
Lp
Tn s
Xi
150-160
155
160-170
170-180
11
Yi =
95
180-190
185
12
190-200
195
32
200-210
205
36
Tng
29
-10
164
cng
T , suy ra
Y=
Do Y =
X 175
5
1
n
10
n Y = 29 = 0.3448 .
i
i =1
, ta suy ra X = 175 + 5Y = 173, 276 .
Ngoi ra
1
S =
n 1
2
Y
i =1
164 29 ( 0, 3448)
n i Y nY =
= 5, 734 ,
28
2
i
do S2Y = ( 15 ) S2X , ta c
2
S2X = 25S2Y = 39, 7971kg 2 ,
do SX = 6, 31kg . Ta c trung bnh mu

1
X=
29
n x
i
= 173, 28 ,
i =1
v phng sai mu l
S2X =
28
i =1
n i x 2i 29X 2 = 143, 35 .
b) c lng trung bnh tng th khi cha bit phng sai tng th, ta dng thng
k
T=
(X )
SX
St ( n 1) .
96
= 2, 048 sao
Vi tin cy = 0, 95 , t bng phn phi Student, ta tm c C = t 28
0,05
cho
P ( 2, 048 T 2, 048 ) = 0, 95 ,
thay T =
( X )
SX
, ta c
X
P 2, 048 T =
SX
2, 048 = 0, 95 .
Do , ta tm c khong c lng cho trung bnh tng th X l
SX
S
; X + 2, 048 X = 168, 73;177, 83 .
X 2, 048
n
n
c) so snh trung bnh tng th m ta c lng vi 0 = 175 mg%, ta xt bi ton

kim nh
H :
H :
Gi tr mu ph hp ti liu
Gi tr mu khng ph hp ti liu
Nu H ng, ngha l = 0 = 175 , th

T=
(X )
0
Sx
St(28) .
Vi = 0, 05 , ta tm c C = t 28
= 2, 048 . T s liu ca mu, ta c
0,05
T=
(173, 28 175)
11, 97
29
= 0, 774 .
V T C , nn ta chp nhn H, ngha l gi tr ny ph hp vi mu quan st.

Bi 2. Mt my ng gi cc sn phm c khi lng 1kg. Nghi ng my hot ng khng
bnh thng, ngi ta chn ra mt mu ngu nhin gm 100 sn phm th thy nh sau :
Khi lng
0,95
0,97
0,99
97
1,01
1,03
1,05
S gi
31
40
15
Vi mc ngha 5%, hy kt lun v nghi ng trn.

Gii
T s liu ca mu, ta c
Trung bnh mu : X = 0, 9856 ,
Phng sai mu : S2X = 0, 000433 ,
lch chun mu : SX = 0, 021 ,
C mu : n = 100 .
Xt gi thuyt H : my hot ng bnh thng, ngha l ta c bi ton kim nh
H : = 1
H : 1
Nu H ng th
T=
(X )
0
SX
St(99) N(0;1) .
Vi mc ngha = 0, 05 , ta c C = 1, 96 . Vi s liu trn, ta c

T=
( 0, 9856 1)
0, 021
100
= 6, 86 .
V T > C , nn ta bc b H, ngha l my hot ng khng bnh thng

Bi 3. Quan st s hoa hng bn ra trong mt ngy ca mt ca hng bn hoa sau mt thi
gian, ngi ta ghi c s liu sau :
S hoa hng ( o )
12
13
15
16
17
18
19
S ngy
a) Tm c lng im ca s hoa hng trung bnh bn c trong mt ngy.
98
b) Sau khi tnh ton, ng ch ca hng ni rng nu trung bnh mt ngy khng bn c 15
o hoa th chng th ng ca cn hn. Da vo s liu trn, anh (ch) hy kt lun gip
ng ch ca hng xem c nn tip tc bn hay khng mc ngha 5%.
c) Gi s nhng ngy bn c t 13 n 17 o hng l nhng ngy bnh thng. Hy
c lng t l ca nhng ngy bnh thng ca ca hng tin cy 90%. ( Gi thit rng
s hoa bn ra trong ngy c phn phi chun).
Gii
a) Trung bnh X = 15, 4 , SX = 1, 871 , n = 25 .
b) Xt gi thit H : nn bn tip, ta c bi ton kim nh
H : = 0 = 15
H : < 0 = 15
Nu H ng th
T=
(X 0 ) n
St(24) .
SX
T s liu ca cu a, ta c
T=
(X 0 ) n
SX
(15, 4 15). 25
= 1, 07 .
1, 871
Vi mc ngha = 0, 05 2 = 0,1 th C = t 24
= 1, 711 .
0,1
V T C , nn ta chp nhn H, ngha l ng ch nn tip tc bn.
c) Ta c t l mu nhng ngy bnh thng l
f =
2+7+7+3
= 0, 76 .
25
c lng t l tng th, ta dng thng k

T=
(f p)
f (1 f )
St(n 1) = St(24) .
99
Vi tin cy 90%, ta c C = 1, 711 . Suy ra

p = f C.
f (1 f )
0, 76(1 0, 76)
= 0, 76 1, 711
= 0, 76 0,146 .
n
25
Vy, khong c lng l 0, 614; 0, 906 .

Bi 4. Quan st sc nng ca b trai (X) v b gi (Y) lc s sinh ( n v gam), ta c kt
qu
Khi lng
3000-
3200-
3400-
3600-
3800-
3200
3400
3600
3800
4000
S b trai
10
S b gi
10
10
a) Tnh X, Y, S2X , S2Y .

b) So snh cc phng sai 2X , 2Y (ket luan vi = 5%) .
c) So snh cc trung bnh X , Y (ket luan vi 5%) .
d) Nhp hai mu li. Tnh trung bnh v lch chun ca mu nhp. Dng mu nhp
c lng sc nng trung bnh ca tr s sinh tin cy 95%.
Gii
Vi s liu chn l im gia v vi n1 l s b trai quan st, n 2 s b gi quan st.
Khi lng
3100
3300
3500
3700
3900
n1
10
n2
10
10
Tng s
13
18
15
a) T s liu ca mu, ta c
X = 3588 , Y = 3450 ,
S2X =
24
i =1
2
n1i x2i 24X = 40266, 67 ,
100
1
S =
27
2
Y
i =1
2
n 2i y i2 24Y = 37407, 41 .
b) Ta xt bi ton kim nh
2
2
H : X = X
2
2
H : X < Y
Nu H ng th
F=
S2X
S2Y
F(n, m) F ( 24, 27 ) .
Vi mc ngha = 0, 05 th C = f 0,05 (24, 27) = 1, 89 .

Vi s liu cu a) , ta c
F=
S2X
S
2
Y
40266, 67
= 1, 076 .
37407, 41
V F C , nn ta chp nhn H, ngha l 2X = 2Y .

c) Ta c bi ton kim nh
H : X = Y
H : X Y
Nu H ng th
T=
XY
St(n + m 2) = St(25 + 28 2) = St(51) N(0;1) ,
1 1
S
+
n m
trong
S2 =
( n 1) S
2
X
+ ( m 1) S2Y
n+m2
24 40266, 67 + 27 37407, 41
= 38752, 94
25 + 28 2
S = 196, 86 ;
Vi mc ngha = 0, 05 th C = Z0,475 = 1, 96 .
101
Vi s liu cu a), ta c
T=
XY
1 1
S
+
n m
3588 3450
= 2, 581 .
1
1
196, 86
+
25 28
V T > C , nn ta bc b H, ngha l X Y .
d) Nhp hai mu li. Gi Z l mu nhp. T bng s liu, ta c
Z=
1
( 3100 3 + 3300 13 + 3500 18 + 3700 15 + 3900 4 ) = 3515,1,
53
S2XY = 42844, 7 , SZ = 206, 98 .
tm khong tin cy cho trung bnh mu nhp Z, ta dng thng k

T=
(Z )
SZ
( 3515,1 )
53
206, 98
St(52) N(0;1) .
Vi tin cy = 0, 95 th C = 1, 96 , ta suy ra
Z = 3515,1 1, 96
206, 98
53
ngha l ta c khong c lng trung bnh ca mu nhp 3459, 38; 3570, 82 .

Bi 5. Mt x nghip c mt s rt ln cc sn phm bng thp vi s khuyt tt trung bnh
mi sn phm l 3. Ngi ta ci tin cch sn xut v kim tra 36 sn phm. Kt qu nh
sau :
S khuyt tt trn sn phm
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
S sn phm tng ng
7 4 5 7 6 6 1
Gi s s khuyt tt ca cc sn phm c phn phi chun.

a) Hy c lng s khuyt tt trung bnh mi sn phm sau khi ci tin, vi tin cy
90%.
b) Hy cho kt lun v hiu qu ca vic ci tin sn xut mc ngha 5%.
Gii
102
a) Ta c
X = 2, 64, S2X = 3, 38 , SX = 1, 838 , n = 36 .
c lng s khuyt tt trung bnh, ta dng thng k

T=
(X )
SX
St ( n 1) = St ( 35) N ( 0;1) .
tin cy = 0, 9 th C = 1, 645 . Do ta c khong c lng

SX
S
; X + C. X = 2,136; 3,144 .
X C.
n
n
b) Xt gi thit H : ci tin khng hiu qu, ta c bi ton kim nh

H : 0 = 3
H : 0 3
Nu H ng th
T=
(X 0 ) n
St ( 35 ) N ( 0;1) .
SX
Vi mc ngha = 0, 05 th C = 1, 96 , v
T=
(X 0 ) n
SX
(2, 64 3). 36
= 1,175 .
1, 838
V T C , chp nhn H, ngha l ci tin khng hiu qu.

Kim nh phi tham s
Bi 6. C mt l hng m ngi giao hng cho bit t l hng 0,10; th phm 0,30; t 0,40;
tt 0,20. Ta kim tra mt s trng hp thy c 25 sn phm hng; 50 th phm; 50 sn
phm t; 25 sn phm tt. Hi rng li ngi giao hng ni c ng khng ? ( kt lun vi
= 5% )
Gii
Ta c bi ton kim nh
103
H :
H :
a)
Ngi giao hng ni ng

Ngi giao hng ni khng ng
Ta c bng phn phi tn s quan st

Hng
Th phm
tt
25
50
50
25
Nu H ng, th trn tng s 150 sn phm kim tra, ta c bng tn s l thuyt

t
Hng
Th phm
0,1 150 = 15
0, 3 150 = 45
tt
0, 4 150 = 60
0, 2 150 = 30
v khi
4
Q=
i =1
( Ni Ni )
Ni
2 (3)
(1)
vi Ni l s liu quan st v Ni l s liu l thuyt.

b) Vi nguy c sai lm = 0, 05, ta c C = 20,05 (3) = 7, 815
c) Th cc s liu quan st v l thuyt vo biu thc (1), ta nhn c Q = 9, 7222 .
d) Ta c Q = 9, 7222 > C = 7, 815 . Do , ta t chi H, ngha l ngi giao hng ni
khng ng.
Bi 7. Quan st ngu nhin mt s trng hp trong 3 l thuc (rt nhiu), ta ghi nhn c
Tt
Tm dng
Hng
L A
125
52
23
L B
117
61
22
L C
178
97
25
Hi rng cht lng ca 3 l thuc c nh nhau khng ? Kt lun vi mc ngha 5%.

Gii
Ta c
104
Tt
Tm dng
Hng
Tng
L A
125
52
23
200
L B
117
61
22
200
L C
178
97
25
300
Tng
420
210
70
700
Xt bi ton kim nh
H :
H :
Cht lng 3 l thuc nh nhau

Cht lng 3 l thuc khc nhau
Nu H ng th
P(tot) =
125 + 117 + 178

= 0, 6 ,
700
P(tam) =
52 + 61 + 97
= 0, 3 , v
700
P(hong) =
23 + 22 + 25
= 0,1 .
700
Khi , bng phn phi tn s l thuyt phi l

Tt
Tm dng
Hng
L A
0, 6 200 = 120
0, 3 200 = 60
0,1 200 = 20
L B
0, 6 200 = 120
0, 3 200 = 60
0,1 200 = 20
L C
0, 6 300 = 180
0, 3 300 = 90
0,1 300 = 30
khc bit gia quan st v l thuyt l

(N N )2 (125 120)
64 9
Q=
=
+
+
+
120
60 20
N
9
1
4
4
49 25
+
+
+
+
+
+
= 3, 42.
120 60 20 180 90 30
Nu H ng th Q 2 (3 1)(3 1) = 2 (4) , vi mc ngha = 0, 05 , ta c

C = 20,05 = 9, 488 .
V Q C , ta chp nhn H, ngha l 3 l thuc nh nhau.

105
Ch : Ta c th thnh lp trc tip bng phn phi tn s l thuyt nh sau

Tt
Tm dng
Hng
Tng
L A
420 200
700
210 200
700
70 200
700
200
L B
420 200
700
210 200
700
70 200
700
200
L C
420 300
700
210 300
700
70 300
700
300
Tng
420
210
70
700
Hn na, ta c th dng trc tip cng thc

2
2
(125)2
52 )
25 )
(
(
Q = 700
+
+ ... +
1 .
200 420 200 210
70 300
Bi 8. Trong mt cng ty, ngi ta chn ngu nhin 1000 cng nhn v theo di s ngy
ngh ca h trong mt nm. Kt qu thu c :
Gii tnh N
Nam
S ngy ngh
05
300
500
5 20
80
70
> 20
20
30
Vi mc ngha 1%, hy kim nh gi thit cho rng s ngh vic khng ph thuc
vo gii tnh.
Gii
Ta c bi ton kim nh
H :
H :
S ngh vic khng ph thuc vo gii tnh

S ngh vic ph thuc vo gii tnh
Nu H ng th
Gi A l n
106
P(A) =
300 + 80 + 20
= 0, 4 ,
1000
P(A) =
500 + 70 + 30
= 0, 6 .
1000
Khi , bng phn phi tn s l thuyt l

Gii tnh
Nam
05
320
480
5 20
60
150
> 20
20
50
S ngy ngh

Q=
(N N )2 400 400 400 400

=
+
+
+
= 13,194 .
320 480 60
90
N
/
Nu H ng th Q 2 (3 1)(2 1) = 2 (2) . Vi mc ngha = 0, 01 , ta c

C = 20,01 = 9, 21 .
V Q > C , nn ta bc b H, ngha l s ngh vic ph thuc vo gii tnh.

Bi 9. Nghin cu nh hng ca hon cnh gia nh i vi tnh hnh phm ti ca tr em
v thnh nin, ngi ta thu c.
Hon cnh gia nh
B hoc m
B m ly
Cn c b
cht
hn
Khng phm ti
20
25
13
Phm ti
29
43
18
Tnh trng phm ti
Vi mc ngha 5%, c th kt lun l hon cnh gia nh ca tr em c lp vi tnh

trng phm ti hay khng.
Gii
Gi X : B hoc m cht, Y : B m ly hn, Z : cn c b m.
107
Ta c bi ton kim nh
H :
H :
Hon cnh gia nh c lp vi tnh trng x hi

Hon cnh gia nh khng c lp vi tnh trng x
hi
Nu H ng th
P(X) =
20 + 29
= 0, 331 ,
148
P(Y) =
25 + 43
= 0, 459 ,
148
P(Z) =
13 + 18
= 0, 209 .
148
Ta c bng phn phi tn s l thuyt nh sau

Hon cnh gia
Khng phm ti
19
27
12
Phm ti
30
41
19
nh
Tnh trng phm ti

Q=
(N N )2
1
4
1
1
4
1
=
+
+
+
+
+
= 0, 468.
19
27
12
30
41
19
N
/

C = 20,05 = 5, 991 .
V Q C , nn ta chp nhn H, ngha l hon cnh gia nh c lp vi tnh trng phm

ti.
Bi 10. C 90 ngi dng DDT tr bnh ngoi da th c 10 ngi nhim bnh; c 100
ngi khng dng DDT th c 26 ngi mc bnh. Hi rng DDT c tc dng nga bnh
ngoi da khng ? ( ket luan vi = 0, 05 ).
108
Gii
t
p1 :
T l ngi mc bnh dng DDT
p2 :
T l ngi mc bnh khng dng DDT
Ta c bi ton kim nh
H : p1 = p2
H : p1 p2
V f1 =
10 1
26
= , v f2 =
= 0, 26 , nn ta c
90 9
100
p=
nf1 + mf 2
n+m
90.
1
26
+ 100.
9
100 = 0,1895 .
90 + 100
Nu H ng th
T=
XY
S
1
n
1
m
St ( n + m 2) = St (188 ) N ( 0;1) .
Vi mc ngha = 0, 05 th C = 1, 96 , v do
T=
f1 f2
1 1
p(1 p) +
n m
1
0, 26
9
= 2, 616 .
1
1
0,1895 0, 8105
+
90 100
V T > C , ta bc b H, ngha l ngi dng DDT c tc dng nga bnh ngoi da

Bi 11. Trong mt vng dn c c 18 b trai v 28 b gi mc bnh B. Hi rng t l nhim
bnh ca b trai v b gi c nh nhau khng ? ( kt lun vi ngha 5% v gi s rng s
lng b trai v b gi trong vng tng ng nhau, v rt nhiu ).
Gii
Ta c bi ton kim nh
109
H : p = 2
H : p 1
Nu H ng th Z =
V f =
( f p)
pq
N(0;1) .
18
= 0, 391 nn ta c
18 + 28
Z=
( 0, 391 0, 5)
46
0, 5 0, 5
= 1, 48 .
Vi mc ngha = 0, 05 , ta tm c C = 1, 96 .
V Z C , nn ta chp nhn H, ngha l t l mc bnh B ca b trai v b gi l nh nhau.
Bi 12. Thng k s tai nn lao ng ti 2 x nghip, ta c cc s liu sau :
S cng nhn
S tai nn lao ng
200
20
800
120
X nghip
Vi mc ngha 5%, hy kt lun xem cht lng cng tc bo v an ton lao ng ti

2 x nghip trn c khc nhau khng ?
Gii
Ta c bi ton kim nh
H :
H :
Cht lng bo v an ton ca hai x nghip nh nhau

Cht lng bo v an ton ca hai x nghip khc nhau
Nu H ng th
P(Cong nhan) =
P(tai nan) =
200 + 800
= 0.8772
1140
20 + 120
= 0,123 .
1140
110
Ta c bng phn phi tn s l thuyt

S cng nhn
S tai nn lao ng
193
27
807
113
X nghip

Q=
( N N 0, 5)2
/
=
N
42, 25 42, 25 42, 25 42, 25
=
+
+
+
= 2, 21.
193
27
807
113
/

C = 20,05 = 3, 841 .
V Q C , nn ta chp nhn H, ngha l cht lng bo v an ton lao ng ca hai x

nghip l nh nhau.
Bi 13. i vi ngi nc ngoi, lng huyt sc t trung bnh l 138.3g/l. Khm cho 80
cng nhn nh my c tip xc ho cht, thy huyt sc t trung bnh l 120g/l; S = 15g/l .
T kt qu trn, c th kt lun lng huyt sc t trung bnh ca cng nhn nh my ho
cht ny thp hn mc chung hay khng ? Kt lun vi mc ngha 5%.
Gii
Ta c bi ton kim nh
H : = 138, 3
H : 138, 3
Theo gi thit, ta c X = 120 , SX = 15 , v n = 80 .

Nu H ng th
T
(X )
0
SX
St ( n 1) = St ( 79) N ( 0;1) .
T s liu ca mu ta tm c gi tr ca T l
111
T=
( X 138, 3)
SX
(120 138, 3)
80
15
= 10, 91 .
Vi mc ngha = 0, 05 , ta c C = 1, 96 .
V T > C , nn ta bc b H, ngha l lng huyt t trung bnh ca cng nhn nh my
thp hn mc chung.
Bi 14. Hm lng ng trong mu ca cng nhn sau 5 gi lm vic vi my siu cao tn
o c hai thi im trc v sau 5 gi lm vic. Ta c kt qu sau :
Trc n1 = 50 , th X = 60mg% , SX = 7 .
Sau n 2 = 40 , th Y = 52mg% , SY = 9, 2 .
Vi mc ngha = 0, 05 , c th khng nh hm lng ng trong mu sau 5 gi
lm vic gim i hay khng ?
Gii
Ta c bi ton kim nh
H : X = Y
H : X Y
Theo gi thit, ta c
(n
S2 =
1) S2X + ( n2 1) S2Y
n1 + n 2 2
49 49 + 39 84.64
= 64, 795,
50 + 40 2
do S = 8, 05 .
Nu H ng th
T=
XY
S
1
n1
1
n2
St ( n1 + n 2 2 ) = St ( 89 ) N ( 0;1) .
T s liu ca hai mu, ta tnh c gi tr ca T l
112
T=
XY
1
1
S
+
n1 n2
60 52
1
1
8.05
+
50 40
= 4, 68
Vi mc ngha = 0, 05 , ta c C = 1, 96 .
V T > C : nn ta bc b H, ngha l hm lng ng trong mu sau 5 gi lm vic
gim i.
Bi 15. nh gi tc dng ca mt ch n bi dng m du hiu quan st l s hng
cu. Ngi ta m s hng cu ca 20 ngi trc v sau khi n bi dng :
xi
32
40
38
42
41
35
36
47
50
30
yi
40
45
42
50
52
43
48
45
55
34
xi
38
45
43
36
50
38
42
41
45
44
yi
32
54
58
30
60
35
50
48
40
50
Vi mc ngha = 0, 05 , c th kt lun g v tc dng ca ch n bi dng ny

?
Gii
y l trng hp dy s liu tng cp. Ta khng th cn c trn tc dng trung bnh
ca tng dy s so snh m ta phi cn c trn s thay i tng c th. t d = Y X
ch s lng gia tng bi b. Ta c bng hiu s d i = X i Yi vi i = 1, 2, ..., 20 nh sau
D
-6
15
-6
11
10
-3
12
-2
T bng trn, ta tnh c

d = 6, 9 , Sd = 4, 28 , v n = 20 .
Khi , gi thit H : Hai b s liu ging nhau tng cp

c thay bng
113
-5
-4
H : trung bnh ca b s liu Di bng 0.

Ta c bi ton kim nh
H : d = 0
H : d 0
Nu H ng th
T
( d 0)
Sd
St ( n 1) = St (19) .
T , ta tm c gi tr ca T l
T=
(d 0) n (6, 9 0) 20
=
= 7, 21 .
Sd
4, 28
Vi mc ngha = 0, 05 th C = t19
= 2, 093 .
0,05
V T > C , nn ta bc b H, ngha l ch thc n bi dng lm thay i hng cu.
Bi 16. Trong t thi ua, phn xng A bo co cht lng sn phm lm ra nh sau : c
85% loi 1; 10% loi 2 v 5% loi 3. Ban thi ua ly ngu nhin t l sn phm cha
phn loi ca phn xng A ra 100 sn phm, thy c 80 loi 1, 13 loi 2 v 7 loi 3. Vi
mc ngha1%, c th kt lun g v bo co ca phn xng A ?
Gii
Bng s liu quan st ca phn xng A
Loi 1
Loi 2
Loi 3
Sn phm
80
13
T l
0,85
0,1
0,05
Ta c bng phn phi tn s l thuyt

Loi 1
Loi 2
Sn phm
85
10
T l
0,85
0,1
0,05

114
Loi 3
Q=
(N N )2 (80 85)2 (13 10)2 (7 5)2

=
+
+
= 1, 99 .
85
10
5
N
/
V ta c bi ton kim nh
H :
H :
D bo ca phn xng A l ng
D bo ca phn xng A l khng ng
Nu H ng th Q 2 (2) .
Vi mc ngha = 0, 01 th C = 20,01 (2) = 9, 21 .
V Q C , nn ta chp nhn H, ngha l d bo ca phn xng A l ng.
5.3.
Bi tp rn luyn
Kim nh tham s
Bi 1. Gim c mt x nghip cho bit lng trung bnh ca 1 cng nhn thuc x nghip l
760 ngn /thng. Chn ngu nhin 36 cng nhn thy lng trung bnh l 700 ngn
/thng, vi lch chun = 80 . Li bo co ca gim c c tin cy c khng, vi
mc c ngha l 5%.
p s: Z = 4, 5 , bc b.
Bi 2. Khi lng cc bao go l bin ngu nhin c phn phi chun N ( 50; 0, 01) . C nhiu
kin khch hng phn nh l khi lng b thiu. Mt nhm thanh tra cn ngu nhin
25 bao go trong kho, kt qu nh sau :
Khi lng bao go
48-
48,5-
49-
49,5-
50-
(kg)
48,5
49
49,5
50
50,5
S bao
10
Hy xem kin khch hng c ng khng bng cch kim tra gi thit = 50 v i
thit < 50, = 0, 05 .
p s: Z = 36, 5 , bc b.
Bi 3. Trong iu kin chn nui bnh thng, lng sa trung bnh ca 1 con b l
14kg/ngy. Nghi ng iu kin chn nui km i lm cho lng sa gim xung, ngi ta
115
iu tra ngu nhin 25 con v tnh c lng sa trung bnh ca 1 con trong 1 ngy l 12,5
v lch tiu chun 2,5. Vi mc ngha 5%. Hy kt lun iu nghi ng ni trn. Gi
thit lng sa b l 1 bin ngu nhin c phn phi chun.
p s: T = 3 , bc b.
Bi 4. i vi ngi Vit Nam lng huyt sc t trung bnh l 138,3g/l. Khm cho 80 cng
nhn nh my c tip xc ho cht thy huyt sc t trung bnh l 120g/l; v lch chun
15g/l. T kt qu trn c th kt lun lng huyt sc t trung bnh ca cng nhn nh my
ny thp hn mc chung hay khng, vi mc ngha 5%.
p s: T = 10, 912 , bc b.
Bi 5. Mt ca hng thc phm nhn thy thi gian va qua trung bnh mt khch hng mua
25 ngn ng thc phm trong ngy. Nay ca hng chn ngu nhin 15 khch hng thy
trung bnh mt khch hng mua 24 ngn ng trong ngy v phng sai mu hiu chnh l
S2 = ( 2 ngan ong ) .
2
Vi mc ngha l 5%, th xem c phi sc mua ca khch hng hin nay c thc s
gim st hay khng.
p s: T = 1, 94 , chp nhn.
Bi 6. iu tra mt mu gm 100 gia nh vng nng thn ngi ta thu c kt qu v
chi tiu trung bnh hng thng ca cc gia nh l 3,455 triu ng vi lch chun l
0,3 triu ng. Vi mc ngha 5% c th cho rng chi tiu trung bnh hng thng ca cc
gia nh t hn 3,5 triu hay khng. Gi thit mc chi tiu c phn phi chun.
p s: T = 1, 5 , chp nhn gi thuyt.
Bi 7. Khi lng trung bnh khi xut chung mt tri chn nui trc l 3,3 kg/con. Nm
nay ngi ta s dng mt loi thc n mi, cn th 15 con khi xut chung ta c cc s
liu nh sau:
3,25; 2,50; 4,00; 3,75; 3,80; 3,90; 4,02; 3,60; 3,80; 3,20; 3,82; 3,40; 3,75; 4,00; 3,50
Gi thit khi lng g l i lng ngu nhin c phn phi theo quy lut chun.
116
a) Vi mc ngha 5%. Hy cho kt lun v tc dng ca loi thc n ny ?

b) Nu tri chn nui bo co khi lng trung bnh khi xut chung l 3,5 kg/con th
c chp nhn c khng, vi mc ngha 5%.
p s: a) T = 3, 06 ; b) T = 1,15 .
Bi 8. Mt my sn xut t ng vi t l chnh phm 98%. Sau mt thi gian hot ng,
ngi ta nghi ng t l trn b gim. Kim tra ngu nhin 500 sn phm thy c 28 ph
phm, vi mc ngha 5%, hy kim tra xem cht lng lm vic ca my c cn c nh
trc hay khng?
p s: Z = 5, 75 , bc b.
Bi 9. Theo mt ngun tin th t l h dn thch xem dn ca trn Tivi l 80%. Thm d 36 h
dn thy c 25 h thch xem dn ca. Vi mc c ngha l 5%. Kim nh xem ngun tin
ny c ng tin cy khng?
p s: Z = 1, 583 , chp nhn.
Bi 10. T l ph phm ca mt nh my trc y l 5%. Nm nay nh my p dng mt
bin php k thut mi. nghin cu tc dng ca bin php k thut mi, ngi ta ly
mt mu gm 800 sn phm kim tra v thy c 24 ph phm.
a) Vi mc ngha 1%. Hy cho kt lun v bin php k thut mi ny ?
b) Nu nh my bo co t l ph phm sau khi p dng bin php k thut mi l 2%
th c chp nhn c khng, vi mc ngha 5%.
p s: a) Z = 2, 6 , bc b; b) Z = 2, 02 , chp nhn.
Bi 11. Nu my ng bao hot ng bnh thng th khi lng ca mt loi sn phm sn
xut ra l i lng ngu nhin c phn phi theo qui lut chun vi lch chun = 0, 2g .
Kim tra khi lng ca 1 s sn phm do my sn xut, ta c kt qu :
60; 60,2; 70; 60,8; 50,6 ;50,8; 50,9; 60,1; 50,3; 60,5; 60,1; 60,2; 60,3; 50,8; 60; 70
a) Vi mc ngha 5%, hy cho bit my ng bao hot ng c bnh thng hay
khng ?
117
b) c lng khi lng trung bnh ca loi sn phm ny hin nay vi tin cy
95%.
p s: a) ; b) .
Bi 12. Trng cng mt ging la trn hai tha rung nh nhau v bn hai loi phn khc
nhau. n ngy thu hoch ta c kt qu nh sau : Tha th nht ly mu 1000 bng la thy
s ht trung bnh ca mi bng X = 70 ht v SX = 10 . Tha th hai ly mu 500 bng thy
s ht trung bnh mi bng Y = 72 ht v SY = 20 . Hi s khc nhau gia X va Y l ngu
nhin hay bn cht, vi mc ngha 5%?
p s: T = 2, 58 , bc b.
Bi 13. so snh khi lng trung bnh ca tr s sinh thnh th v nng thn, ngi ta
th cn khi lng ca 10000 chu v thu c kt qu sau y :
S chu
Khi lng
lch
c cn
trung bnh
chun mu
Nng thn
8000
3,0kg
0,3kg
Thnh th
2000
3,2kg
0,2kg
Vng
Vi mc ngha 5%, c th coi khi lng trung bnh ca tr s sinh thnh th cao
hn nng thn hay khng? (Gi thit khi lng tr s sinh l bin ngu nhin c phn
phi chun).
p s: T = 28, 28 , bc b gi thuyt.
Bi 14. Hm lng ng trong mu ca cng nhn sau 3 gi lm vic vi my siu cao tn
c o 2 thi im trc v sau 3 gi lm vic. Ta c kt qu sau :
Trc :
n1 = 50 :
X = 60mg%;
S1 = 7mg%
Sau :
n2 = 40 :
Y = 52mg%;
S2 = 9, 2mg%
Vi mc ngha 5%, c th khng nh hm lng ng trong mu sau 3 gi lm

vic gim i hay khng ?
p s: T = 4, 69 , bc b.
118
Bi 15. Trong thp nin 80, khi lng trung bnh ca thanh nin l 48kg. Nay xc nh
li khi lng y, ngi ta chn ngu nhin 100 thanh nin o khi lng trung bnh l 50kg
v phng sai mu hiu chnh S2 = (10kg ) .
2
a) Th xem khi lng thanh nin hin nay phi chng c thay i, vi mc c ngha
l 1%.
b) Nu khi lng thc t ca ngi thanh nin l a1 = 51kg th xc sut mc sai lm
loi 2 l bao nhiu.
c) Nu mun xc sut mc sai lm loi 1 l 1% v xc sut mc sai lm loi 2 khng
vt qu 5% th phi o khi lng ca bao nhiu thanh nin nu khi lng trung bnh thc
t ca thanh nin hin nay khng vt qu 52kg.
d) Nu mun xc sut mc sai lm loi 1 l 1% v xc sut mc sai lm loi 2 khng
vt qu 5% th phi o khi lng ca bao nhiu thanh nin nu khi lng trung bnh thc
t ca thanh nin hin nay trong khong (44 ; 52)kg.
p s:
Kim nh phi tham s
Bi 16. Cng mt loi ht ging em x l theo 2 phng n khc nhau. Kt qu quan st
chiu cao cy con ca mi phng n c cho di y
Phng n I
Phng n II
39,2
29
28,5
33,5
41,7
37,2
37,3
27,7
23,4
33,4
29,2
35,6
20,8
33,8
28,6
23,4
22,7
30,9
31,0
27,4
19,5
29,6
23,2
18,7
20,7
17,6
29,4
27,7
25,5
14,5
Hy dng tiu chun phi tham s kim tra xem 2 phng n x l c nh hng n
sinh trng chiu cao cy con hay khng, vi mc ngha 5%.
p s:
119
Bi 17. Gi s ta mun xc nh xem hiu qu ca ch n king i vi vic gim khi

lng nh th no. 20 ngi qu bo thc hin ch n king. Khi lng ca tng
ngi trc khi n king (X kg) v sau khi n king (Y kg) c cho nh sau:
X 80
78
85
70
90
78
92
88 75
Y 75
77
80
70
84
74
85
82 80
X 75
63
72
89
76
77
71
83 78
82
90
Y 65
62
71
83
72
82
71
79 76
83
81
Dng tiu chun phi tham s kim tra xem ch n king c tc dng lm gim khi
lng hay khng, vi mc ngha 5%.
p s: T = 3, 39 , bc b gi thuyt.
Bi 18. Dng 3 phng n x l ht ging kt qu cho nh sau :
Kt qu
Phng n I Phng n II Phng n III
S ht mc
360
603
490
S ht khng mc
40
97
180
Cc phng n x l c tc dng nh nhau i vi t l ny mm hay khng, vi mc

ngha 5%.
p s: Q = 61, 52 , bcb gi thuyt.
Bi 19. Theo di s ph thuc gia mu mt v mu tc 124 ph n mt nc Chu u
ta c kt qu sau :
Mu tc
Mu mt
Vng nu Nu
en Vng hoe
Xanh
25
Xm
13
17
10
Nu mc
13
Vi mc ngha 5%, hy kim tra gi thit cho rng mu ca tc v mu ca mt c

lp vi nhau.
120
Bi 20. xc nh thi v phun thuc dit su c li nht, t bo v cy trng theo di

cc la su trong tng thi k v m s su non mi n bt c. Kt qu ghi bng sau
Thi k theo di Thng 1 Thng 2 Thng 3 Thng 4 Thng 5
S su non mi
n bt c
Tng s su non
bt c
62
28
70
75
15
488
392
280
515
185
T l su non mi n trong cc thi k quan st khc nhau c ngha hay khng, vi

mc ngha 5%.
Bi 21. Mt nh my c 3 phn xng cng sn xut mt loi sn phm. Cht lng sn
phm c chia thnh 3 loi. Kim tra, phn loi ngu nhin mt s sn phm t l sn
phm ca 3 phn xng ta c s liu sau :
Phn
xng
PX I
Cht lng
PX
PX
II
III
Loi I
70
80
60
Loi II
25
20
15
Loi III
10
Vi mc ngha 5%, c th kt lun cht lng sn phm ph thuc vo ni lm ra

chng hay khng?
p s: Q = 2, 8 , chp nhn gi thuyt.
Bi 22. Mt my sn sut t ng, lc u t l sn phm loi A l 20%. Sau khi p dng
mt phng php sn sut mi, ngi ta ly 40 mu, mi mu gm 10 sn phm kim tra.
Kt qu kim tra cho bng sau :
121
S sn phm loi A trong mu
10
S mu
10
Vi mc ngha 5%. Hy cho kt lun v phng php sn sut ny.

p s: Z = 16, 875 , bcb gi thuyt.
Bi 23. Sn phm c sn xut ra trn mt dy chuyn t ng c ng gi mt cch
ngu nhin theo qui cch : 3 sn phm/hp. Tin hnh kim tra 200 hp ta c kt qu
S sp loi I c trong hp
S hp
14
110
70
Vi mc ngha 5%, c th xem s sn phm loi I c trong hp l i lng ngu

nhin c quy lut phn phi nh thc khng?
Bi 24. Mt nh my sn xut my in ni rng s li in trong 1 cun sch dy 300 trang ca
my in l 1 i lng ngu nhin c quy lut phn phi Poisson vi tham s = 4, 7 . Kim
tra 300 trang sch in ca 50 my in cng loi, ta c
S li
S my
13
10
Vi mc ngha 1%, hi li tuyn b ca nh sn xut c ng khng?

Bi 25. S con ca 2000 ph n th di 25 tui cho bng sau :
S con X
S ph
n
1090 650 220 30 10
Vi mc ngha 5% c th xem X tun theo lut Poisson hay khng?

Bi 26. Kim tra 200 thng mt loi hp, ngi ta thu c s liu sau
122
S hp b hng/thng
S thng
116
56
22
Vi mc ngha 5%, chng t rng s hp b hng ca mt thng l bin ngu nhin

tun theo qui lut Poisson?
Bi 27. S tai nn giao thng xy ra mi ngy 1 thnh ph quan st c
S tai nn
S ngy
10
32
46
35
20
Vi mc ngha 1%, xt xem s tai nn giao thng c quy lut Poisson?

Bi 28. Nng sut la (X) th nghim trn 100 l t cho kt qu
Nng
sut
8-9
9-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15
(tn/ha)
S trng hp
15
21
23
16
Vi mc ngha 10%, xt xem X c phn phi chun khng?

123
124
MT S THAM KHO
1
Cu 1. Mt nh my c 3 phn xng A, B, C tng ng lm ra 25%, 35% v 40% tng sn
phm ca nh my. Gi s xc sut lm ra mt sn phm hng ca cc phn xng A, B v
C ln lt l 0,015; 0,025 v 0,035.
a) Tnh xc sut chn ngu nhin mt sn phm ca nh my th nhn phi sn
phm hng.
b) Bit rng nhn phi sn phm hng ca nh my. Theo bn sn phm hng do
phn xng no sn xut.
Cu 2. Mt nh my sn xut 100000 sn phm trong c 30000 sn phm loi A. KCS
n kim tra v ly ngu nhin khng hon li 500 sn phm ra th. Hy tnh xc sut s
sn phm loi A m KCS pht hin ra c
a) ng 150 sn phm,
b) T 145 n 155,
c) t hn 151.
Cu 3. em cn mt s tri cy va thu hoch, ta c kt qu sau :
Khi lng (g) 205
S tri
215
225
235
245
255
265
275
14
16
23
16
10
Gi s khi lng ca tri cy c phn phi chun.

a) Tm khong c lng ca khi lng trung bnh ca tri cy vi tin cy l
90%.
b) Tri cy c khi lng ln hn 250 gam c gi l tri cy loi mt. Tm khong
c lng cho t l ny vi tin cy 99%.
125
c) Nu mun sai s c lng ca khi lng trung bnh khng vt qu 2 gam

tin cy l 95% th phi cn thm t nht bao nhiu tri na?
d) Theo ti liu cho bit khi lng trung bnh ca tri cy l 240 gam. Hy cho bit
bng s liu trn c ph hp vi ti liu ny khng? Kt lun vi mc ngha l 5%.
2
Cu 1. Gi s th trng xe Vit Nam do ba nc Nht, Trung Quc v Vit Nam cung
cp. T l xe hng ca ba nc ln lt l 1%, 20%, 10%. Bit rng xe ca Trung Quc
chim
1
2
th trng, xe ca Nht chim
th trng cn li l xe ca Vit Nam. Chn ngu
4
3
nhin mt xe trn th trng.

a) Tm xc sut xe c chn l xe hng.
b) Nu chn c xe hng. Theo bn xe l do nc no cung cp.
Cu 2. Sn phm sau khi hon tt c ng thnh kin, mi kin gm 10 sn phm vi t
l chnh phm l 80%. Trc khi mua hng, khch hng mun kim tra bng cch t mi
kin chn ngu nhin 3 sn phm.
a) Tm bng phn phi xc sut ca s chnh phm trong 3 sn phm ly ra.
b) Nu c 3 sn phm c ly ra u l chnh phm th khch hng s ng mua
kin hng . Tnh xc sut kim tra 100 kin c t nht 60 kin c mua.
Cu 3. iu tra nng sut la trn din tch 100 hecta trng la ca mt vng, ta thu c
bng s liu sau :
Nng sut (t/ha)
41
44
45
46
48
52
54
Din tch (ha)
10
20
30
15
10
10
Gi s nng sut la c phn phi chun

a) Hy c lng nng sut la trung bnh ca vng vi tin cy 95%.
126
b) Nu mun sai s c lng ca nng sut la trung bnh khng vt qu 0,5 t/ha,
vi tin cy 99% th cn iu tra thm t nht bao nhiu hecta la na.
c) Nhng tha rung c nng sut t 48 t/ha tr ln c xem l nhng tha c nng
sut cao. Hy c lng t l din tch c nng sut cao trong vng vi tin cy 90%.
d) C ti liu cho bit nng sut la trung bnh l 47 t/ha. Gi tr ny c ph hp vi
mu quan st khng? (kt lun vi mc ngha 5%).
3
Cu 1. S liu thng k v doanh s bn (triu ng/ngy) ca mt siu th nh sau :
Doanh s
S ngy
Doanh s
S ngy
20 40
80 - 90
15
40 50
10
90 - 100
10
50 60
20
100 - 110
60 70
25
110 - 130
70 80
25
a) Nhng ngy c doanh s bn hng trn 90 triu ng l nhng ngy bn t hng.

Hy c lng t l nhng ngy bn t hng siu th ny vi tin cy 95%.
b) c lng doanh s bn hng trung bnh ca mt ngy siu th vi tin cy
90%, gi s doanh s bn hng ca nhng ngy bn l i lng ngu nhin c phn phi
chun.
c) Nu mun sai s c lng trung bnh ca mt ngy bn hng siu th khng
vt qu 3 triu ng/ngy, tin cy 99% th cn quan st thm t nht bao nhiu ngy
na.
d) Trc y doanh s bn hng trung bnh l 65 triu ng/ngy. S liu trn c
thu thp sau khi siu th p dng phng php bn hng mi. Hy cho nhn xt v phng
php bn hng mi ny vi mc ngha 5%.
127
Cu 2. C 20 kin hng, mi kin c 10 sn phm. Trong s c 8 kin loi 1, mi kin c

2 ph phm; 7 kin loi 2, mi kin c 3 ph phm; 5 kin loi 3, mi kin c 5 ph phm.
Ly ngu nhin mt kin, ri t kin ly ngu nhin mt sn phm.
a) Tnh xc sut sn phm ly ra l ph phm.
b) Bit sn phm ly ra l ph phm. Theo bn sn phm thuc kin loi no.
Cu 3. di ca mt chi tit my c tin ra c bit l c phn phi chun, vi di
trung bnh l 1,2 cm v lch chun v di l 0,001 cm.
a) Sn phm tin ra c xem l sn phm loi mt nu di ln hn 1,202 cm.
Tnh xc sut chn ngu nhin mt sn phm th c sn phm loi mt.
b) Tnh xc sut sn phm c chn ra c di t 1,198 cm n 1,202 cm.
c) Nu chn c sn phm loi mt th s mua sn phm . Chn ngu nhin 10
sn phm, tnh xc sut mua c 3 sn phm loi mt.
4
Cu 1. Trc khi a sn phm ra th trng ngi ta phng vn ngu nhin 200 khch
hng v sn phm v thy c 34 ngi tr li s mua, 96 ngi tr li c th mua v
70 ngi tr li khng mua. Kinh nghim cho thy t l khch hng thc s s mua sn
phm tng ng vi cch tr li trn l 40%, 20% v 1%.
a) Tnh t l khch hng thc s mua sn phm .
b) Trong s khch hng thc s mua sn phm th c bao nhiu phn trm tr li s
mua.
Cu 2. Khi lng X (tnh bng gam) mt loi tri cy c phn phi chun N(; 2 ) , vi
= 500 (gam) v 2 = 16 (gam 2 ) . Tri cy thu hoch c phn loi theo khi lng nh
sau :
i) loi 1 : trn 505 gam,
ii) loi 2 : t 495 n 505 gam,
iii) loi 3 : di 495 gam.
128
Tnh t l mi loi.
Cu 3. Tin hnh iu tra s go bn ra hng ngy mt ca hng c kt qu sau :
S go bn ra (kg)
120
130
150
160
180
190
210
220
S ngy
12
25
30
20
13
Gi s s go bn c trong ngy theo lut phn phi chun

a) Nhng ngy bn c trn 200 kg l nhng ngy cao im. Hy c lng tin
bn c trong nhng ngy cao im, bit rng gi go trung bnh l 10000 ng/kg, vi
tin cy 99%.
b) Hy c lng t l ngy cao im vi tin cy 90%.
c) c lng t l ngy cao im vi chnh xc 5% th tin cy l bao
nhiu?
d) Ch ca hng cho rng nu trung bnh mi ngy bn ra khng qu 150 kg th tt
hn l ngh bn. T s liu trn, vi mc ngha 5% ca hng nn quyt nh th no?
5
Cu 1. Mt l ht ging c phn thnh ba loi. Loi 1 chim 2/3 s ht c l, loi 2 chim
1/4, cn li l loi 3. Loi 1 c t l ny mm 80%, loi 2 c t l ny mm 60% v loi 3 c
t l ny mm 40%. Hi t l ny mm chung ca l ht ging l bao nhiu ?
Cu 2. ng knh ca mt chi tit my do mt my tin t ng sn xut c phn phi
chun vi trung bnh = 50 mm v lch chun = 0, 05 mm. Chi tit my c xem l t
yu cu nu ng knh khng sai qu 0.1mm.
a) Tnh t l sn phm t yu cu.
b) Ly ngu nhin 3 sn phm. Tnh xc sut c t nht mt sn phm t yu cu.
Cu 3. Kho st v thu nhp ca mt s ngi ca cng ty, ngi ta thu c bng s liu
sau (thu nhp triu ng/nm) :
Thu nhp
8-12
12-14
129
14-16
16-20
20-30
S ngi
12
20
45
15
Gi s thu nhp c phn phi chun

a) Hy c lng thu nhp trung bnh ca mt ngi trong cng ty vi tin cy
90%.
b) Nhng ngi c thu nhp trn 20 triu ng/nm l nhng ngi c thu nhp cao.
Hy c lng s ngi c thu nhp cao cng ty vi tin cy 99%, bit rng tng s
ngi lm vic trong cng ty l 2000 ngi
c) Nu mun dng mu trn c lng thu nhp trung bnh ca mt ngi cng
ty vi chnh xc 100 ngn ng/nm th tin cy l bao nhiu?
d) Nu cng ty bo co mc thu nhp bnh qun ca mt ngi trong cng ty l 1,5
triu ng/thng th c chp nhn c khng? Kt lun vi mc ngha 5% .
6
Cu 1. Mt nh my X c ba phn xng khc nhau. T l ph phm ca ba phn xng ln
lt l 1%, 5%, 10%. Bit rng t l sn phm ca phn xng mt v hai l nh nhau v
bng mt na ca phn xng ba. Ly ngu nhin mt sn phm ca nh my.
a) Tm xc sut sn phm ly ra l ph phm.
b) Nu ly ra phi ph phm. Tm xc sut ph phm l ca phn xng mt,
ca phn xng hai, ca phn xng ba.
Cu 2. di ca mt chi tit my c tin ra c phn phi chun N cm; ( 0, 2cm )2 . Sn

phm coi l t yu cu nu sai lch so vi di trung bnh khng qu 0,3 cm.
a) Tnh xc sut chn ngu nhin mt sn phm th c sn phm t yu cu.
b) Chn ngu nhin 3 sn phm. Tnh xc sut c t nht 2 sn phm t yu cu.
Cu 3. tm hiu lng m X (g) mi cy cao su cho ta trong mt ngy, ghi nhn 100 cy
ta c kt qu sau :
X (g) 200-210 210-220 220-230 230-240 240-250 250-260 260-270
130
S
cy
14
30
25
12
Gi s lng m X c phn phi chun

a) Hy c lng lng m trung bnh ca mi cy cao su vi tin cy 90%.
b) Nu mun c lng lng m trung bnh ca mi cy cao su vi tin cy 99%
v chnh xc 3g th cn phi iu tra thm bao nhiu cy na?
c) Nu c lng lng m trung bnh ca mi cy cao su vi chnh xc 2,5g th
s t c tin cy l bao nhiu?
d) Mt ti liu thng k c cho rng lng m trung bnh ca mi cy cao su l 235
gam. Hy cho kt lun v ti liu vi mc ngha 5%.
7
Cu 1. Hai ca hng X v Y cung cp cc a mm my tnh cho mt trung tm tin hc vi
t l 3/2. T l a b li ca cc ca hng tng ng l 1% v 2%. Mt sinh vin n thc
tp ti trung tm chn ngu nhin mt hp a gm 20 chic v t rt ngu nhin mt a.
1) Tnh xc sut sinh vin rt phi a b li.
2) Sau khi khi ng my, sinh vin nhn thy qu tht a b li. Tnh xc sut
a ny thuc ca hng X.
Cu 2. Sn phm nh my c ng thnh tng hp, mi hp c 10 sn phm. Gi X l s
sn phm loi mt c trong hp. Cho bit X c bng phn phi xc sut nh sau:
X
0,7
0,3
Khch hng chn cch kim tra mua hng nh sau : T mi hp ly ngu nhin ra
3 sn phm kim tra, nu thy c 2 sn phm loi mt th mua hp . Ly ngu nhin 3
hp kim tra. Tnh xc sut c 2 hp c mua.
Cu 3. Kt qu quan st v hm lng vitamin ca mt loi tri cy, ta c s liu sau :
131
Hm lng (%)
6-7
7-8
8-9
9-10
10-11
11-12
S tri
10
20
35
25
Gi s hm lng vitamin c phn phi chun.

a) Hy c lng hm lng vitamin trung bnh trong mt tri, vi tin cy 95%.
b) Nhng tri c hm lng vitamin trn 10% l tri loi I. Hy c lng t l tri loi
I, vi tin cy 99%.
c) Nu mun sai s c lng ca t l tri loi I khng qu 0.05, vi tin cy 95% th
cn quan st thm t nht bao nhiu tri na.
Cu 4. Mt cng ty in thoi ni rng s lp t in thoi cho khch hng trong thnh ph
chm nht l 30 ngy tnh t lc yu cu. Kim tra ngu nhin 30 khch hng thy thi gian
trung bnh lp t in thoi l 34,5 ngy vi lch chun mu l 3,3 ngy. Vi mc
ngha 1%, hy cho bit c chp nhn li tuyn b trn hay khng?
8
Cu 1. Kin hng 1 c 5 sn phm loi A, 1 sn phm loi B. Kin hng 2 c 2 sn phm
loi A, 4 sn phm loi B. T mi kin ta chn ngu nhin ra 1 sn phm em giao cho
khch hng. Sau cc sn phm cn li c dn chung vo kin hng 3 (ang trng).
a) Nu ta ly ngu nhin 1 sn phm t kin hng 3 th xc sut chn sn phm
loi B l bao nhiu?
b) Nu ta ly ngu nhin 2 sn phm t kin 3, hy tnh xc sut c t nht 1 sn
phm loi B trong 2 sn phm c chn.
Cu 2. Cho i lng ngu nhin X c bng phn phi xc sut nh sau:
X
0, 6
x3
0, 3
0, 5
p3
Cho bit EX = 8 . Tnh phng sai ca X.

Cu 3. ng knh ca 100 chi tit do mt my sn xut kt qu cho trong bng sau :
132
ng knh (mm)
S chi tit
19,80 - 19,85
19,85 - 19,90
19,90 - 19,95
16
19,95 - 20,00
28
20,00 - 20,05
23
20,05 - 20,10
14
20,10 - 20,15
20,15 - 20,20
Gi s ng knh ca chi tit my c phn phi chun. Quy nh nhng chi tit c
ng knh t 19,9 mm n 20,1 mm l nhng chi tit t tiu chun.
a) Hy c lng ng knh trung bnh ca nhng chi tit t tiu chun vi tin cy
95%.
b) Hy c lng t l chi tit t tiu chun vi tin cy 99%.
Cu 4. T l ph phm ca mt x nghip sn xut l 5%. Nhm gim bt t l ph phm
ngi ta ci tin k thut. Sau khi ci tin k thut, kim tra 400 sn phm thy c 18 ph
phm. Vi mc ngha 5%, hy cho kt lun v hiu qu ca vic ci tin k thut.
9
Cu 1. C 3 hp b ngoi ging ht nhau. Cc hp cha ln lt 10, 15, 20 chnh phm mi
hp u cha 5 ph phm. Ly ngu nhin mt hp ri t hp ly ngu nhin 2 sn phm.
1) Tnh xc sut ly c c hai ph phm.
2) Kim tra th thy c hai sn phm ly ra ng l ph phm. Tnh xc sut hai sn
phm thuc hp mt.
Cu 2. C 3 hp, mi hp c 35 sn phm.
Hp 1 c 3 sn phm khng t cht lng.
133
Ly ngu nhin mt hp, ri t hp ly ngu nhin ra 2 sn phm. Gi X l s sn

phm khng t cht lng trong 2 sn phm ly ra.
1. Lp bng phn phi xc sut cho X.
2. Tnh trung bnh v phng sai ca X.
Cu 3. Kho st v thu nhp X (triu ng / thng) ca mt s ngi, ta c bng s liu nh
sau:
Thu nhp
04
48
8 12
12 16
16 20
20 24
S ngi
12
20
30
16
10
Gi s thu nhp c phn phi chun.

1. Hy c lng thu nhp trung bnh ca mt ngi trong mt thng vi tin cy 95%.
2. Nhng ngi c mc thu nhp t 16 triu ng / thng tr ln c gi l nhng
ngi c mc thu nhp cao. Hy c lng t l nhng ngi c mc thu nhp
cao vi tin cy 99%.
3. Nu dng mu ny c lng t l nhng ngi c mc thu nhp cao vi sai s
khng qu 5% th tin cy l bao nhiu ?
Cu 4. Mt cng ty sn xut bng n qung co rng bng n loi 75W ca h t
sng trung bnh 800 gi trc khi hng. T chc nhng ngi tiu dng cn phi quyt nh
xem c pht tin lin quan n chin dch qung co ca cng ty hay khng. V th h quyt
nh ly ngu nhin v kim tra 100 bng n khiu kin. Vi th nghim ny, 100 bng n
t sng trung bnh l 745,5 gi trc khi chy vi lch chun l 238 gi. Vi mc
ngha 5%, hy cho bit cng ty qung co nh vy c b pht tin hay khng?
10
Cu 1. Cho hai bnh. Bnh th nht cha 3 bi trng, 2 bi . Bnh th hai cha 2 bi trng, 3
bi . Ly ngu nhin 2 bi t bnh th nht b sang bnh th hai, ri sau ly ngu nhin 2
bi t bnh th hai ra ngoi. Tnh xc sut hai bi ny l 1 trng v 1 .
Cu 2. Mt nh my sn xut 100000 sn phm trong c 30000 sn phm loi A. KCS
n kim tra v ly ngu nhin khng hon li 500 sn phm ra th. Hy tnh xc sut s
sn phm loi A m KCS pht hin ra c
1. ng 150 sn phm,
134
2. T 145 n 155.
Cu 3. Mt t x s c 10% v trng thng. Hi phi mua t nht bao nhiu v xc
sut c t nht 1 v trng thng khng nh hn 90%.
Cu 4. tm hiu lng m X (g) mi cy cao su cho ta trong mt ngy, ghi nhn c kt
qu sau :
X (g)
200-210
210-220
220-230
230-240
240-250
250-260
260-270
S cy
14
30
25
12
Gi s lng m X c phn phi chun

1. Hy c lng lng m trung bnh ca mi cy cao su vi tin cy 95%.
2. Nu mun c lng lng m trung bnh ca mi cy cao su vi tin cy 99%
v chnh xc 3g th cn phi iu tra thm bao nhiu cy na?
3. Nu c lng lng m trung bnh ca mi cy cao su vi chnh xc 2,5g th
s t c tin cy l bao nhiu?
Cu 5. Mt l hng c 6000 sn phm. Chn ngu nhin 400 sn phm t l hng kim
tra th thy c 360 sn phm lai A.
1. Hy c lng s sn phm lai A c trong l hng vi tin cy 95%.
2. Nu cho rng s sn phm lai A c trong l hng l 5500 th c chp nhn c
khng? (vi mc ngha 5%)
11
Cu 1. Mt ngi c 5 con g mi, 2 con g trng nht chung trong mt ci lng. Mt ngi
n mua, ngi bn g bt ngu nhin 1 con. Ngi mua chp nhn con .
a) Tnh xc sut ngi mua c con g mi.
Ngi th hai li n mua, ngi bn g li bt ngu nhin ra 1 con.
b) Tm xc sut ngi th hai mua c con g trng.
135
c) Xc sut ny s bng bao nhiu nu ngi bn g qun mt rng con g bn cho

ngi th nht l g trng hay g mi.
Cu 2. thanh ton 1 triu ng tin hng, mt khch hng gian ln xp ln 5 t 50
ngn ng tin gi vi 15 t tin tht. Ch ca hng rt ngu nhin 3 t giy bc em i
kim tra v giao hn nu pht hin c bc gi th c mi t gi khch hng phi n hai t
tht. Tm s tin pht m khch c th phi tr.
Cu 3. Cn ngu nhin 45 con heo 3 thng tui trong mt tri chn nui, ta c kt qu sau
Xi
35
37
39
41
43
45
47
ni
10
11
Gi s khi lng X (kg) tun theo quy lut phn phi chun.
a) Hy c lng khong cho khi lng trung bnh cc con heo 3 thng tui trong tri
trn vi tin cy 95%.
b) Heo c khi lng 38kg l heo t tiu chun. Hy tm c lng t l heo t
chun vi tin cy 90%.
Cu 4. T l ph phm ca mt nh my trc y l 5%. Nm nay nh my p dng mt
bin php k thut mi. nghin cu tc dng ca bin php k thut mi, ngi ta ly
mt mu gm 800 sn phm kim tra v thy c 24 ph phm.
a) Vi mc ngha 1%. Hy cho kt lun v bin php k thut mi ny ?
b) Nu nh my bo co t l ph phm sau khi p dng bin php k thut mi l 2% th c
chp nhn c khng, vi mc ngha 5%.
136
PHAN PHOI GAUSS

(x) =
1
2
e t
/2
dt = P ( 0 X x ) ,
vi X N ( 0;1) , x z .
x=z
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
0.0000
0.0398
0.0793
0.1179
0.1554
0.1915
0.2257
0.2580
0.2881
0.3159
0.3413
0.3643
0.0040
0.0438
0.0832
0.1217
0.1591
0.1950
0.2291
0.2611
0.2910
0.3186
0.3438
0.3665
0.0080
0.0478
0.0871
0.1255
0.1628
0.1985
0.2324
0.2642
0.2939
0.3212
0.3461
0.3686
0.0120
0.0517
0.0910
0.1293
0.1664
0.2019
0.2357
0.2673
0.2967
0.3238
0.3485
0.3708
0.0160
0.0557
0.0948
0.1331
0.1700
0.2054
0.2389
0.2704
0.2995
0.3264
0.3508
0.3729
0.0199
0.0596
0.0987
0.1368
0.1736
0.2088
0.2422
0.2734
0.3023
0.3289
0.3531
0.3749
0.0239
0.0636
0.1026
0.1406
0.1772
0.2123
0.2454
0.2764
0.3051
0.3315
0.3554
0.3770
0.0279
0.0675
0.1064
0.1443
0.1808
0.2157
0.2486
0.2794
0.3078
0.3340
0.3577
0.3790
0.0319
0.0714
0.1103
0.1480
0.1844
0.2190
0.2517
0.2823
0.3106
0.3365
0.3599
0.3810
0.0359
0.0753
0.1141
0.1517
0.1879
0.2224
0.2549
0.2852
0.3133
0.3389
0.3621
0.3830
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
0.3849
0.4032
0.4192
0.4332
0.4452
0.4554
0.4641
0.4713
0.4772
0.4821
0.4861
0.4893
0.3869
0.4049
0.4207
0.4345
0.4463
0.4564
0.4649
0.4719
0.4778
0.4826
0.4864
0.4896
0.3888
0.4066
0.4222
0.4357
0.4474
0.4573
0.4656
0.4726
0.4783
0.4830
0.4868
0.4898
0.3907
0.4082
0.4236
0.4370
0.4484
0.4582
0.4664
0.4732
0.4788
0.4834
0.4871
0.4901
0.3925
0.4099
0.4251
0.4382
0.4495
0.4591
0.4671
0.4738
0.4793
0.4838
0.4875
0.4904
0.3944
0.4115
0.4265
0.4394
0.4505
0.4599
0.4678
0.4744
0.4798
0.4842
0.4878
0.4906
0.3962
0.4131
0.4279
0.4406
0.4515
0.4608
0.4686
0.4750
0.4803
0.4846
0.4881
0.4909
0.3980
0.4147
0.4292
0.4418
0.4525
0.4616
0.4693
0.4756
0.4808
0.4850
0.4884
0.4911
0.3997
0.4162
0.4306
0.4429
0.4535
0.4625
0.4699
0.4761
0.4812
0.4854
0.4887
0.4913
0.4015
0.4177
0.4319
0.4441
0.4545
0.4633
0.4706
0.4767
0.4817
0.4857
0.4890
0.4916
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
0.4918
0.4938
0.4953
0.4965
0.4974
0.4981
0.4987
0.4990
0.4993
0.4995
0.4997
0.4998
0.4920
0.4940
0.4955
0.4966
0.4975
0.4982
0.4987
0.4991
0.4993
0.4995
0.4997
0.4998
0.4922
0.4941
0.4956
0.4967
0.4976
0.4982
0.4987
0.4991
0.4994
0.4995
0.4997
0.4998
0.4925
0.4943
0.4957
0.4968
0.4977
0.4983
0.4988
0.4991
0.4994
0.4996
0.4997
0.4998
0.4927
0.4945
0.4959
0.4969
0.4977
0.4984
0.4988
0.4992
0.4994
0.4996
0.4997
0.4998
0.4929
0.4946
0.4960
0.4970
0.4978
0.4984
0.4989
0.4992
0.4994
0.4996
0.4997
0.4998
0.4931
0.4948
0.4961
0.4971
0.4979
0.4985
0.4989
0.4992
0.4994
0.4996
0.4997
0.4998
0.4932
0.4949
0.4962
0.4972
0.4979
0.4985
0.4989
0.4992
0.4995
0.4996
0.4997
0.4998
0.4934
0.4951
0.4963
0.4973
0.4980
0.4986
0.4990
0.4993
0.4995
0.4996
0.4997
0.4998
0.4936
0.4952
0.4964
0.4974
0.4981
0.4986
0.4990
0.4993
0.4995
0.4997
0.4998
0.4998
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
0.4998
0.4999
0.4999
0.5000
0.4998
0.4999
0.4999
0.5000
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.5000
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.5000
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.5000
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.5000
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.5000
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.5000
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.5000
0.4999
0.4999
0.4999
0.5000
137
PHAN PHOI STUDENT

P ( T t ) = vi T St(n)
Cot 1 : gia tr o t do n.
Hang 1 : Gia tr nguy c sai lam
Noi dung bang : Gia tr t tng ng vi n va
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
0.01
63.656
9.925
5.841
4.604
4.032
3.707
3.499
3.355
3.250
3.169
3.106
3.055
3.012
2.977
2.947
2.921
2.898
2.878
2.861
2.845
2.831
2.819
2.807
2.797
2.787
2.779
2.771
2.763
2.756
2.576
0.02
31.821
6.965
4.541
3.747
3.365
3.143
2.998
2.896
2.821
2.764
2.718
2.681
2.650
2.624
2.602
2.583
2.567
2.552
2.539
2.528
2.518
2.508
2.500
2.492
2.485
2.479
2.473
2.467
2.462
2.326
0.03
21.205
5.643
3.896
3.298
3.003
2.829
2.715
2.634
2.574
2.527
2.491
2.461
2.436
2.415
2.397
2.382
2.368
2.356
2.346
2.336
2.328
2.320
2.313
2.307
2.301
2.296
2.291
2.286
2.282
2.170
0.04
15.894
4.849
3.482
2.999
2.757
2.612
2.517
2.449
2.398
2.359
2.328
2.303
2.282
2.264
2.249
2.235
2.224
2.214
2.205
2.197
2.189
2.183
2.177
2.172
2.167
2.162
2.158
2.154
2.150
2.054
0.05
12.706
4.303
3.182
2.776
2.571
2.447
2.365
2.306
2.262
2.228
2.201
2.179
2.160
2.145
2.131
2.120
2.110
2.101
2.093
2.086
2.080
2.074
2.069
2.064
2.060
2.056
2.052
2.048
2.045
1.960
0.06
10.579
3.896
2.951
2.601
2.422
2.313
2.241
2.189
2.150
2.120
2.096
2.076
2.060
2.046
2.034
2.024
2.015
2.007
2.000
1.994
1.988
1.983
1.978
1.974
1.970
1.967
1.963
1.960
1.957
1.881
138
0.07
9.058
3.578
2.763
2.456
2.297
2.201
2.136
2.090
2.055
2.028
2.007
1.989
1.974
1.962
1.951
1.942
1.934
1.926
1.920
1.914
1.909
1.905
1.900
1.896
1.893
1.890
1.887
1.884
1.881
1.812
0.08
7.916
3.320
2.605
2.333
2.191
2.104
2.046
2.004
1.973
1.948
1.928
1.912
1.899
1.887
1.878
1.869
1.862
1.855
1.850
1.844
1.840
1.835
1.832
1.828
1.825
1.822
1.819
1.817
1.814
1.751
0.09
7.026
3.104
2.471
2.226
2.098
2.019
1.966
1.928
1.899
1.877
1.859
1.844
1.832
1.821
1.812
1.805
1.798
1.792
1.786
1.782
1.777
1.773
1.770
1.767
1.764
1.761
1.758
1.756
1.754
1.695
0.1
6.314
2.920
2.353
2.132
2.015
1.943
1.895
1.860
1.833
1.812
1.796
1.782
1.771
1.761
1.753
1.746
1.740
1.734
1.729
1.725
1.721
1.717
1.714
1.711
1.708
1.706
1.703
1.701
1.699
1.645
0.15
4.165
2.282
1.924
1.778
1.699
1.650
1.617
1.592
1.574
1.559
1.548
1.538
1.530
1.523
1.517
1.512
1.508
1.504
1.500
1.497
1.494
1.492
1.489
1.487
1.485
1.483
1.482
1.480
1.479
1.440
0.2
3.078
1.886
1.638
1.533
1.476
1.440
1.415
1.397
1.383
1.372
1.363
1.356
1.350
1.345
1.341
1.337
1.333
1.330
1.328
1.325
1.323
1.321
1.319
1.318
1.316
1.315
1.314
1.313
1.311
1.282
PHAN PHOI CHI BNH PHNG

P ( X 2n, ) = khi X 2 (n)
Hang 1 : Gia tr cua
Cot 1 : Gia tr o t do n.
Noi dung bang : Gia tr 2n, .
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
0.005
7.879
10.597
12.838
14.860
16.750
18.548
20.278
21.955
23.589
25.188
26.757
28.300
29.819
31.319
32.801
34.267
35.718
37.156
38.582
39.997
41.401
42.796
44.181
45.558
46.928
48.290
49.645
50.994
52.335
53.672
60.275
66.766
73.166
79.490
85.749
91.952
98.105
104.215
110.285
116.321
122.324
128.299
134.247
140.170
0.01
6.635
9.210
11.345
13.277
15.086
16.812
18.475
20.090
21.666
23.209
24.725
26.217
27.688
29.141
30.578
32.000
33.409
34.805
36.191
37.566
38.932
40.289
41.638
42.980
44.314
45.642
46.963
48.278
49.588
50.892
57.342
63.691
69.957
76.154
82.292
88.379
94.422
100.425
106.393
112.329
118.236
124.116
129.973
135.807
0.015
5.916
8.399
10.465
12.339
14.098
15.777
17.398
18.974
20.512
22.021
23.503
24.963
26.403
27.827
29.235
30.629
32.011
33.382
34.742
36.093
37.434
38.768
40.094
41.413
42.725
44.031
45.331
46.626
47.915
49.199
55.553
61.812
67.994
74.111
80.173
86.188
92.161
98.098
104.001
109.874
115.720
121.542
127.341
133.120
0.02
5.412
7.824
9.837
11.668
13.388
15.033
16.622
18.168
19.679
21.161
22.618
24.054
25.471
26.873
28.259
29.633
30.995
32.346
33.687
35.020
36.343
37.659
38.968
40.270
41.566
42.856
44.140
45.419
46.693
47.962
54.244
60.436
66.555
72.613
78.619
84.580
90.501
96.387
102.243
108.069
113.871
119.648
125.405
131.142
0.025
5.024
7.378
9.348
11.143
12.832
14.449
16.013
17.535
19.023
20.483
21.920
23.337
24.736
26.119
27.488
28.845
30.191
31.526
32.852
34.170
35.479
36.781
38.076
39.364
40.646
41.923
43.195
44.461
45.722
46.979
53.203
59.342
65.410
71.420
77.380
83.298
89.177
95.023
100.839
106.629
112.393
118.136
123.858
129.561
2n,
0.03
4.709
7.013
8.947
10.712
12.375
13.968
15.509
17.011
18.480
19.922
21.342
22.742
24.125
25.493
26.848
28.191
29.523
30.845
32.158
33.462
34.759
36.049
37.332
38.609
39.880
41.146
42.407
43.662
44.913
46.160
52.335
58.428
64.454
70.423
76.345
82.225
88.069
93.881
99.665
105.422
111.156
116.869
122.562
128.237
139
0.05
3.841
5.991
7.815
9.488
11.070
12.592
14.067
15.507
16.919
18.307
19.675
21.026
22.362
23.685
24.996
26.296
27.587
28.869
30.144
31.410
32.671
33.924
35.172
36.415
37.652
38.885
40.113
41.337
42.557
43.773
49.802
55.758
61.656
67.505
73.311
79.082
84.821
90.531
96.217
101.879
107.522
113.145
118.752
124.342
0.95
0.004
0.103
0.352
0.711
1.145
1.635
2.167
2.733
3.325
3.940
4.575
5.226
5.892
6.571
7.261
7.962
8.672
9.390
10.117
10.851
11.591
12.338
13.091
13.848
14.611
15.379
16.151
16.928
17.708
18.493
22.465
26.509
30.612
34.764
38.958
43.188
47.450
51.739
56.054
60.391
64.749
69.126
73.520
77.929
0.975
0.001
0.051
0.216
0.484
0.831
1.237
1.690
2.180
2.700
3.247
3.816
4.404
5.009
5.629
6.262
6.908
7.564
8.231
8.907
9.591
10.283
10.982
11.689
12.401
13.120
13.844
14.573
15.308
16.047
16.791
20.569
24.433
28.366
32.357
36.398
40.482
44.603
48.758
52.942
57.153
61.389
65.647
69.925
74.222
0.98
0.001
0.040
0.185
0.429
0.752
1.134
1.564
2.032
2.532
3.059
3.609
4.178
4.765
5.368
5.985
6.614
7.255
7.906
8.567
9.237
9.915
10.600
11.293
11.992
12.697
13.409
14.125
14.847
15.574
16.306
20.027
23.838
27.720
31.664
35.659
39.699
43.779
47.893
52.039
56.213
60.412
64.635
68.879
73.142
0.99
0.000
0.020
0.115
0.297
0.554
0.872
1.239
1.647
2.088
2.558
3.053
3.571
4.107
4.660
5.229
5.812
6.408
7.015
7.633
8.260
8.897
9.542
10.196
10.856
11.524
12.198
12.878
13.565
14.256
14.953
18.509
22.164
25.901
29.707
33.571
37.485
41.444
45.442
49.475
53.540
57.634
61.754
65.898
70.065
0.995
0.000
0.010
0.072
0.207
0.412
0.676
0.989
1.344
1.735
2.156
2.603
3.074
3.565
4.075
4.601
5.142
5.697
6.265
6.844
7.434
8.034
8.643
9.260
9.886
10.520
11.160
11.808
12.461
13.121
13.787
17.192
20.707
24.311
27.991
31.735
35.534
39.383
43.275
47.206
51.172
55.170
59.196
63.250
67.328
PHAN PHOI FISHER
P ( X f (n, m) ) = khi X F(n, m)

Hang 1 : Gia tr cua o t do (t so) n.
Cot 1 : Gia tr o t do (mau so) m.
Noi dung bang : Gia tr f (n, m) .
f( n, m)
Bang 1 : = 0.05
1
10
12
15
20
24
30
40
60
120
161
200
216
225
230
234
237
239
241
242
244
246
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
18.51
19
10.13 9.55
9.28
9.12
9.01
8.94
8.89
8.85
8.81
8.79
8.74
8.7
8.66
8.64
8.62
8.59
8.57
8.55
8.53
7.71
6.94
6.59
6.39
6.26
6.16
6.09
6.04
5.96
5.91
5.86
5.8
5.77
5.75
5.72
5.69
5.66
5.63
6.61
5.79
5.41
5.19
5.05
4.95
4.88
4.82
4.77
4.74
4.68
4.62
4.56
4.53
4.5
4.46
4.43
4.4
4.37
5.99
5.14
4.76
4.53
4.39
4.28
4.21
4.15
4.1
4.06
3.94
3.87
3.84
3.81
3.77
3.74
3.7
3.67
5.59
4.74
4.35
4.12
3.97
3.87
3.79
3.73
3.68
3.64
3.57
3.51
3.44
3.41
3.38
3.34
3.3
3.27
3.23
5.32
4.46
4.07
3.84
3.69
3.58
3.5
3.44
3.39
3.35
3.28
3.22
3.15
3.12
3.08
3.04
3.01
2.97
2.93
5.12
4.26
3.86
3.63
3.48
3.37
3.29
3.23
3.18
3.14
3.07
3.01
2.94
2.9
2.86
2.83
2.79
2.75
2.71
10
4.96
4.1
3.71
3.48
3.33
3.22
3.14
3.07
3.02
2.98
2.91
2.85
2.77
2.74
2.7
2.66
2.62
2.58
2.54
11
4.84
3.98
3.59
3.36
3.2
3.09
3.01
2.95
2.9
2.85
2.79
2.72
2.65
2.61
2.57
2.53
2.49
2.45
2.4
12
4.75
3.89
3.49
3.26
3.11
2.91
2.85
2.8
2.75
2.69
2.62
2.54
2.51
2.47
2.43
2.38
2.34
2.3
13
4.67
3.81
3.41
3.18
3.03
2.92
2.83
2.77
2.71
2.67
2.6
2.53
2.46
2.42
2.38
2.34
2.3
2.25
2.21
14
4.6
3.74
3.34
3.11
2.96
2.85
2.76
2.7
2.65
2.6
2.53
2.46
2.39
2.35
2.31
2.27
2.22
2.18
2.13
15
4.54
3.68
3.29
3.06
2.9
2.79
2.71
2.64
2.59
2.54
2.48
2.4
2.33
2.29
2.25
2.2
2.16
2.11
2.07
16
4.49
3.63
3.24
3.01
2.85
2.74
2.66
2.59
2.54
2.49
2.42
2.35
2.28
2.24
2.19
2.15
2.11
2.06
2.01
17
4.45
3.59
3.2
2.96
2.81
2.7
2.61
2.55
2.49
2.45
2.38
2.31
2.23
2.19
2.15
2.1
2.06
2.01
1.96
18
4.41
3.55
3.16
2.93
2.77
2.66
2.58
2.51
2.46
2.41
2.34
2.27
2.19
2.15
2.11
2.06
2.02
1.97
1.92
19
4.38
3.52
3.13
2.9
2.74
2.63
2.54
2.48
2.42
2.38
2.31
2.23
2.16
2.11
2.07
2.03
1.98
1.93
1.88
20
4.35
3.49
3.1
2.87
2.71
2.6
2.51
2.45
2.39
2.35
2.28
2.2
2.12
2.08
2.04
1.99
1.95
1.9
1.84
21
4.32
3.47
3.07
2.84
2.68
2.57
2.49
2.42
2.37
2.32
2.25
2.18
2.1
2.05
2.01
1.96
1.92
1.87
1.81
22
4.3
3.44
3.05
2.82
2.66
2.55
2.46
2.4
2.34
2.3
2.23
2.15
2.07
2.03
1.98
1.94
1.89
1.84
1.78
23
4.28
3.42
3.03
2.8
2.64
2.53
2.44
2.37
2.32
2.27
2.2
2.13
2.05
2.01
1.96
1.91
1.86
1.81
1.76
24
4.26
3.4
3.01
2.78
2.62
2.51
2.42
2.36
2.3
2.25
2.18
2.11
2.03
1.98
1.94
1.89
1.84
1.79
1.73
25
4.24
3.39
2.99
2.76
2.6
2.49
2.4
2.34
2.28
2.24
2.16
2.09
2.01
1.96
1.92
1.87
1.82
1.77
1.71
30
4.17
3.32
2.92
2.69
2.53
2.42
2.33
2.27
2.21
2.16
2.09
2.01
1.93
1.89
1.84
1.79
1.74
1.68
1.62
40
4.08
3.23
2.84
2.61
2.45
2.34
2.25
2.18
2.12
2.08
1.92
1.84
1.79
1.74
1.69
1.64
1.58
1.51
60
3.15
2.76
2.53
2.37
2.25
2.17
2.1
2.04
1.99
1.92
1.84
1.75
1.7
1.65
1.59
1.53
1.47
1.39
120
3.92
3.07
2.68
2.45
2.29
2.18
2.09
2.02
1.96
1.91
1.83
1.75
1.66
1.61
1.55
1.5
1.43
1.35
1.25
3.84
2.6
2.37
2.21
2.1
2.01
1.94
1.88
1.83
1.75
1.67
1.57
1.52
1.46
1.39
1.32
1.22
19.16 19.25 19.3 19.33 19.35 19.37 19.38 19.4 19.41 19.43 19.45 19.45 19.46 19.47 19.48 19.49 19.5
140
PHAN PHOI FISHER
P ( X f (n, m) ) = khi X F(n, m)

Hang 1 : Gia tr cua o t do (t so) n.
Cot 1 : Gia tr o t do (mau so) m.
Noi dung bang : Gia tr f (n, m) .
f( n, m)
Bang 2 : = 0.01
1
10
12
15
20
24
30
40
60
120
4052 4999 5404 5624 5764 5859 5928 5981 6022 6056 6107 6157 6209 6234 6260 6286 6313 6340 6366
98.50 99.00 99.16 99.25 99.30 99.33 99.36 99.38 99.39 99.40 99.42 99.43 99.45 99.46 99.47 99.48 99.48 99.49 99.5
34.12 30.82 29.46 28.71 28.24 27.91 27.67 27.49 27.34 27.23 27.05 26.87 26.69 26.60 26.50 26.41 26.32 26.22 26.1
21.20 18.00 16.69 15.98 15.52 15.21 14.98 14.80 14.66 14.55 14.37 14.20 14.02 13.93 13.84 13.75 13.65 13.56 13.5
16.26 13.27 12.06 11.39 10.97 10.67 10.46 10.29 10.16 10.05 9.89
9.72
9.55
9.47
9.38
9.29
9.20
9.11 9.02
13.75 10.92 9.78
9.15
8.75
8.47
8.26
8.10
7.98
7.87
7.72
7.56
7.40
7.31
7.23
7.14
7.06
6.97 6.88
12.25 9.55
8.45
7.85
7.46
7.19
6.99
6.84
6.72
6.62
6.47
6.31
6.16
6.07
5.99
5.91
5.82
5.74 5.65
11.26 8.65
7.59
7.01
6.63
6.37
6.18
6.03
5.91
5.81
5.67
5.52
5.36
5.28
5.20
5.12
5.03
4.95 4.86
10.56 8.02
6.99
6.42
6.06
5.80
5.61
5.47
5.35
5.26
5.11
4.96
4.81
4.73
4.65
4.57
4.48
4.40 4.31
10 10.04 7.56
6.55
5.99
5.64
5.39
5.20
5.06
4.94
4.85
4.71
4.56
4.41
4.33
4.25
4.17
4.08
4.00 3.91
11
9.65
7.21
6.22
5.67
5.32
5.07
4.89
4.74
4.63
4.54
4.40
4.25
4.10
4.02
3.94
3.86
3.78
3.69
12
9.33
6.93
5.95
5.41
5.06
4.82
4.64
4.50
4.39
4.30
4.16
4.01
3.86
3.78
3.70
3.62
3.54
3.45 3.36
13
9.07
6.70
5.74
5.21
4.86
4.62
4.44
4.30
4.19
4.10
3.96
3.82
3.66
3.59
3.51
3.43
3.34
3.25 3.17
14
8.86
6.51
5.56
5.04
4.69
4.46
4.28
4.14
4.03
3.94
3.80
3.66
3.51
3.43
3.35
3.27
3.18
3.09
15
8.68
6.36
5.42
4.89
4.56
4.32
4.14
4.00
3.89
3.80
3.67
3.52
3.37
3.29
3.21
3.13
3.05
2.96 2.87
16
8.53
6.23
5.29
4.77
4.44
4.20
4.03
3.89
3.78
3.69
3.55
3.41
3.26
3.18
3.10
3.02
2.93
2.84 2.75
17
8.40
6.11
5.19
4.67
4.34
4.10
3.93
3.79
3.68
3.59
3.46
3.31
3.16
3.08
3.00
2.92
2.83
2.75 2.65
18
8.29
6.01
5.09
4.58
4.25
4.01
3.84
3.71
3.60
3.51
3.37
3.23
3.08
3.00
2.92
2.84
2.75
2.66 2.57
19
8.18
5.93
5.01
4.50
4.17
3.94
3.77
3.63
3.52
3.43
3.30
3.15
3.00
2.92
2.84
2.76
2.67
2.58 2.49
20
8.10
5.85
4.94
4.43
4.10
3.87
3.70
3.56
3.46
3.37
3.23
3.09
2.94
2.86
2.78
2.69
2.61
2.52 2.42
21
8.02
5.78
4.87
4.37
4.04
3.81
3.64
3.51
3.40
3.31
3.17
3.03
2.88
2.80
2.72
2.64
2.55
2.46 2.36
22
7.95
5.72
4.82
4.31
3.99
3.76
3.59
3.45
3.35
3.26
3.12
2.98
2.83
2.75
2.67
2.58
2.50
2.40 2.31
23
7.88
5.66
4.76
4.26
3.94
3.71
3.54
3.41
3.30
3.21
3.07
2.93
2.78
2.70
2.62
2.54
2.45
2.35 2.26
24
7.82
5.61
4.72
4.22
3.90
3.67
3.50
3.36
3.26
3.17
3.03
2.89
2.74
2.66
2.58
2.49
2.40
2.31 2.21
25
7.77
5.57
4.68
4.18
3.85
3.63
3.46
3.32
3.22
3.13
2.99
2.85
2.70
2.62
2.54
2.45
2.36
2.27 2.17
30
7.56
5.39
4.51
4.02
3.70
3.47
3.30
3.17
3.07
2.98
2.84
2.70
2.55
2.47
2.39
2.30
2.21
2.11 2.01
40
7.31
5.18
4.31
3.83
3.51
3.29
3.12
2.99
2.89
2.80
2.66
2.52
2.37
2.29
2.20
2.11
2.02
1.92
1.8
60
7.08
4.98
4.13
3.65
3.34
3.12
2.95
2.82
2.72
2.63
2.50
2.35
2.20
2.12
2.03
1.94
1.84
1.73
1.6
120 6.85
4.79
3.95
3.48
3.17
2.96
2.79
2.66
2.56
2.47
2.34
2.19
2.03
1.95
1.86
1.76
1.66
1.53 1.38
4.61
3.78
3.32
3.02
2.80
2.64
2.51
2.41
2.32
2.18
2.04
1.88
1.79
1.70
1.59
1.47
1.32 1.00
6.63
141
3.6

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ThS.

TP. H CH MINH - 2013

Chng 0. GII TCH T HP

0.1.3. Cng thc nhn

Tng qut: Nu cho n tp hu hn X1, X 2,..., Xk , ta c

0.1.4. Quy tc cng

Bc 2 c n2 cch thc hin,,

Xc sut thng k : 3 tp,

a) Nhn xt: 3 b sch c tt c 11 tp; t ln gi sch, mi cch sp l hon v ca 11

Xem mi b sch l mt phn t.

Cc cp sch trong mi b sch xo trn vi nhau.

Suy ra: s cch sp xp 3 b sch theo tng b l: 3!6!2!3!

b) Nhn xt: Mi trn u ng vi vic chn 2 i chn t 20 i. (i ch, i khch).

Chng 1. I CNG V XC SUT

trong A v ln lt l s phn t ca A v ca v nh ngha bng tn sut

So trng hp thuan li cho A

1.1.2. Tnh cht c bn ca xc sut

vi P(B) > 0 , v ta c cng thc nhn

Khi bin c B xy ra hay khng xy ra khng nh hng n vic bin c A xy ra hay

Ta c cng thc nhn tng qut,

P ( A1 A 2 ...A n ) = P ( A1 ) P A 2 A1 P A 3 A1 A 2 ...P A n A1 A 2 ...A n 1

Khi A1 , A 2 , , A n l h cc bin c c lp, ngha l mt bin c xy ra hay khng

1.1.4. Cng thc xc sut ton phn cng thc Bayes

b) Cng thc Bayes

1.1.5. Dy php th Bernoulli

vi p = P(A) . Ta k hiu X B(n; p) .

P(A + B + C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) P(AB) P(AC) P(BC) + P(ABC)

P [ (A + B)C] = P [ AC + BC] = P(AC) + P(BC) P(ABC)

Bi 2. Cho P(A) = , P(B) =

Tnh P(AB) , P(AB) , P(A + B) , P(AB) v P(AB) .

Xut pht t ng thc A = AB + AB v v AB , AB l cc bin c xung khc, ta c

Bi 3. T l ngi mc bnh tim trong mt vng dn c l 9%, mc bnh huyt p l 12%,

P(A.B) = P(A) P(AB) = 0, 09 0, 07 = 0, 02.

ngha l c 30 ln d bo nng, tri nng, 4 ln d bo nng, tri sng m; 10 ln d bo

b) Do trong 100 ln theo di, ta thy c 30 + 20 + 20 d bo ca i truyn hnh ng

c) Do trong 44 ln i truyn hnh d bo l tri nng c 30 ln thc t tri nng, 4 ln

Bi 5. Bn qun mt s cui cng trong s in thoi cn gi (s in thoi gm 6 ch s)

T , suy ra xc sut nhn c bi

P(A) = P ( A B ) P(B) + P A B P(B) =

v xc sut nhn c bi trng l

Bi 7. Mt cp tr sinh i c th do cng mt trng (sinh i tht) hay do hai trng khc

vi cc cp sinh i gi th gii tnh ca mi a c lp nhau v c xc sut l 0.5 nn

v do thng k trn cc cp sinh i nhn c th

a) Do cng thc xc sut ton phn,

b) Do cng thc Bayes,

Bi 8. Mt trung tm chn on bnh dng mt php kim nh T. Xc sut mt ngi

b) Php kim nh cho kt qu ng.

a) Do cng thc xc sut ton phn,

m P ( A B ) = 1 P ( A B ) = 0, 5 , nn xc sut php kim nh l dng tnh cho bi

b) Xc sut php kim nh cho kt qu ng l

Bi 9. Mt dy chuyn lp rp nhn cc chi tit t hai nh my khc nhau. T l chi tit do

Bi : nhn c sn phm do nh my th i sn xut, vi i = 1, 2 . T gi thuyt, ta c

Do B1 , B2 to thnh h y cc bin c nn t cng thc Bayes, ta c xc sut

Bi 10. Trong mt vng dn c, c 100 ngi th c 30 ngi ht thuc l. Bit t l ngi

Do ngi b vim hng nn t cng thc Bayes, ta suy ra xc sut ngi

Khi ngi khng b vim hng th xc sut anh ta ht thuc l l

Bi 11. Mt thit b gm 3 cm chi tit, mi cm b hng khng nh hng g n cc cm

B : thit b khng ngng hot ng.

Do A1 , A 2 v A 3 l h cc bin c c lp nn xc sut thit b khng ngng hot

Bi 12. Mt ngi bn bia vi xc sut bn trng l p = 0, 7 .

b) Gi n l s ln bn xc sut t nht mt ln trng bia 0.9 . Do X B ( n; p ) vi

P ( X 1) 0.9 , ta gii bt phng trnh

Ly lgart hai v ca bt phng trnh trn, ta c

Do ln(0.3) < 0 , ta suy ra