TRNG I HC S PHM TP HCM

KHOA: TON TIN

ti

Ging vin hng dn:

TS Nguyn Phc Ti

Nhm thc hin:

Nhm 7

Khoa:

Ton Tin

Ngnh:

S phm Ton hc

Kha:

K40 (2014-2018)

TP HCM, ngy 6 thng 4 nm 2015

L THUYT C LNG
A. I CNG
I.

Bi ton m u

- Gi s bit hm phn phi F ca X thuc h hm phn phi F(x,), trong l tham

s. Xc nh gi tr ca cng chnh xc th ta c thng tin chnh xc v X.
- Trong thc t , vic xc nh rt kh, ta ch c lng da trn mu (1 , 2 , , )
II.

Cc loi c lng

1. c lng im: kt qu cho bi 1 s cu th.

Vd: Ly mu v c lng chiu cao trung bnh ca ngi Vit Nam l = 160 cm.
2.c lng khong:
- Gi l hm c lng ca . Chu y l 1 bin ngu nhin, cho 0 1 thi tn ti
1 , 2 sao cho: P(1 2 ) =
- Luc [1 , 2] l khong c lng ca tham s vi tin cy , kh nng mc sai lm
khi dung c lng khong = 1
V du 1: d on tui thy Ti, c ngi ni c 25-30, ngi khc ni c 25-35, ta
thy khong c lng 25-35 c tin cy cao hn 25-30, nhng c ngi on tui
thy Ti t 0-100 tui, ta thy chc chn l 1 c lng ung.
V du 2: Ly mu v c lng c chiu cao trung bnh ca ngi Vit Nam l
158 162.
B. C LNG KHONG
I.

c lng trong phn phi N(; 02 ), 02 bit:

- Gi X1, X2,,Xn l mu c lp, Xi~N(; 02 )

1

02

- Trung bnh mu: = (X1+X2++Xn)~N(,

- t =

()
0

~N(0,1)

- Cho sn: (0,1) l tin cy. Cn tm C sao cho: ( ) =

1

= 1 ( ), vi : mc y ngha, = 1 .
2


- Tra bng Laplace, ta tim c C. Khi , khong c lng l: = 0

V d: Gi s, im trung bnh ca sinh vin khoa ton c phn phi chun

N(, 0,252). T c mu 100 hy tim c lng , vi tin cy l 95%.
Gii

Theo bi ta c: n=100; =5.25; 0 = 0,25; = 0,95

Ta c: = 1 0,95 = 0,05
1

0,05

= 1 ( )= 1 (

) = 1 (0,475) = 1,96

c lng im trung bnh mn ton ca sinh vin l:

=

= 5,25 1,96

0,25
100

= 5,25 0,049

Vy: 5,201 < < 5,299

Bi ton: Xc nh c mu khi bit tin cy v chnh xc :

- Ta mun | | <
- Ta c | |
- Do , ta cn chn

0 2

=> (

V d 1: o chiu su ca bin bng mt loi dung cu o c sai s tun theo quy lut
chun vi lch chun l 20m. Phi o bao nhiu ln c lp vi nhau kt qu c
sai s khng qu 15m vi tin cy l 0,97.
Gii:

Theo bi ta c: = 20; = 15; = 0,97

M = 1 => = 0,03
1 0,03
= 1 (
) = 1 (0,485) = 2,17
2
2
0 2

Ta c: (

2,17.20 2

) (

15

) 8,37

V d 2: Quan st chiu cao ca 100 sinh vin trong mt kha hc, ta c: chiu cao
trung bnh ca h l = 163,28, lch mu 0 = 8,25. Hy tm khong c
lng ca chiu cao trung bnh ca mt nam sinh vin trong kha vi tin cy l
95%.
Gii:
Ta c: = 1 0,95 = 0,05
1 0,05
= 1 (
) = 1 (0,475) = 1,96
2
2
=

= 163,28 1,617

Vy: 161,663 164,897

II.

c lng trong phn phi N(; ), cha bit:

1. TH1: 30: Ta thay th lch chun =

1
2 =
( )2
1
=1

2. TH2: 30:
- Gi s ta mun c lng trong phn phi N(; 2 ), 2 cha bit
Gi 1 , 2 , , l mu c lp, ~ N(; 2 )
- Nu 2 cha bit, tim khong c lng cho = EX thi t khng nh bin ngu nhin:
- t =

l phn phi Student vi n-1 bc t do ~ t(n-1), trong :

1
2 =
( )2
1
=1

- Cho sn tin cy (0; 1). Ta tm C sao cho:

P(C T C) =
- C c c trong bn phn phi Student
- Suy ra: C

X
Sx

n C +

V d 1: Trn tp mu gm 100 s liu, ngi ta tnh c

X = 0,1, S = 0,014. Xc
nh khong tin cy 95% cho gi tr trung bnh tht
Gii:
Ta c: n = 100 > 30, 2cha bit, = 0,95 cho gi t trung bnh tht c dng:

Sx
n

+C
X

Sx
n

Trong = 1 = 0,05 , = 1,96

0,0973 0,1027

V d 2: c lng nng sut mt ging ng, ngi ta theo di 25 mnh rung. Sau
khi thu hoch c = 10,6; = 2,082 (n v t/ha). Gi thit nng sut ng phn
phi chun. Mc tin cy = 0,95.
Gii
Ta c: . Tra bng =0.05; n-1= 24 phn phi Student ta c: t(24; 0,05) = 2,064
Vy khong c lng nng sut trung binh ca ging ng:
10,6 2,064

2,082
25

10,6 + 2,064

Hay:9,741 11,45

2,082
25

C. BI TP
Bi 1: Trng lng (X) ca mt loi chi tit l mt i lng ngu nhin tun theo quy
lut chun vi lch chun = 1,2. Phi chn t nht bao nhiu chi tit iu tra nu
di khong tin cy l = 0,2, vi tin cy = 0,91.

Gii:
1

0,09

Ta c: = 1 = 0,09 = 1 (

) = 1 (0,455)=1,7

0 2
(
) 104,04

Bi 2: Quan st tui th X (gi) ca mt s bng n do x nghip A sn xut, ta ghi

nhn
X

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

19

14

16

17

18

16

16

12

Vi N ch s trng hp theo tng gi tr ca X

a) Tnh trung binh mu v lch chun mu Sx
b) c lng tui th trung binh ca bng n tin cy 0.95
c) Nu mun c lng sai s khng qu 30 gi vi tin cy 0.99 thi phi quan st mu
gm t nht my bng n ?
Gii:
a) T bng s liu ca mu, ta c:
n = 128, = 1391.41, Sx = 134.45
6

b) c lng tui th trung binh ca bng n ta dung thng k

=

( )
~( 1)

Da theo b s liu ca thng k ta nhn c

=

(1391.41 )128
~(127) = (0; 1)
234.45

Vi tin cy = 0.95, ta tm c C=1.96 v do c lng trung binh cho bi:

=

= 1391.41 1.96

234.45
128

Ta c khong c lng cho tui th trung binh ca bng n l [1350.79;1432.03]

c) Sai s ca c lng cho bi C

, nn sai s khng qu 30 gi, ta c:

= 1.96

234.45

30

Gii bt phng trinh trn, ta tim c n 234.63. Vy phi quan st t nht 235 bng.
Bi 3: Mt ging lua gieo trn 10 ming t th nghim c iu kin ging nhau cho sn
lng tnh theo cung n v nh sau:
25.4

28.0 20.1 27.4 25.6 23.9 24.8 26.4 27.0 25.4

Hy xc nh khong tin cy ca sn lng ging la vi tin cy l 0.95, bit sn

lng lua l i lng ngu nhin c phn phi chun (; 2 ) vi v 2 cha bit.
Gii:
Ta tnh c = 25.4 v = 2.24
7

Tra bng ta c (9; 0,95) = 2.262. T ta tnh c khong tin cy:

= 25.4 2.262

2.24
10

= [23.8; 27]

Bi 4: Mt mu ngu nhin 9 hp kem W c xc nh c khi lng trung binh l

30.8kg/hp v lch chun 0.36g. Tim khong tin cy 98% cho khi lng trung binh
tt c cc hp kem W. Bit rng khi lng ca cc hp kem tun theo phn phi binh
thng.
Gii
=9
= 0.36
Ta c {
= 30.8
1 = 0.98 = 0.02 (8; 0,01) = 2.9865
Khong tin cy l = (8; 0,01)

= 30.8 2.9865

0.36
9

= [30.44; 31.16]

Bi 5: Quan st chiu cao () ca mt s ngi, ta ghi nhn:

X (cm)

142,5

147,5

152,5

157,5

162,5

167,5

S ngi

a) Tnh v 2
b) Tnh
Gii
a) = 27; = 156,2; 2 = 37,68, = 6,14
b) c lng trung bnh ta dung thng k:
=

( ) (156,2 )27
=
~(26)

6,14
8

Vi tin cy = 0,95.Ta c C = t(26; 0,05) = 2,056 v do c lng ca trung

C Sx = 156,2 2,056 6,14 = [153,77; 158,63]
binh cho bi: = X
n

27

Bi 6: Khi lng cc bao bt mi ti mt ca hng lng thc tun theo phn phi
chun. Kim tra 20 bao, thy khi lng trung binh ca mi bao bt mi l 48kg, v
phng sai mu 2 = (0,5)2.
a) Vi tin cy 95%. Hy c lng khi lng trung binh ca mt bao bt mi thuc
ca hng
b) Vi dung sai ca c lng cu a) l 0,284kg. Hy xc nh tin cy
c) dung sai ca c lng cu a) khng qu 160g vi tin cy l 95%, cn phi
kim tra t nht bao nhiu gam?
Gii
a) =
b) =

= 48 (20; 0,05)

= (20; )

0,5
20

0,5
20

= 48 0,233

= 0,284 (20; ) = 2,54 = 0,02

= 0,98

c) =

0,16 42,49

DANH SCH THNH VIN NHM 7:

1. Nguyn Ngc Khnh Trn

5. T Hoi Thanh

2. Nguyn Ngc Long

6. Trn Nguyn Qunh Hng

3. Triu Th Trang

7. H Nguyn Tu Duyn

4. L Vn Hung

TI LIU THAM KHO

- Xc sut thng k v qu trinh ngu nhin Nguyn Ch Long, nh xut bn i hc Quc
gia TP HCM
- Bi ging L thuyt xc sut thng k Trn Anh Tun
- Bi tp Xc sut Thng k inh Vn Gng
- Bi tp Xc sut thng k Nguyn Vn Thin

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