1

TRNG I HC BCH KHOA TP. H CH MINH

KHOA KHOA HC NG DNG
B MN TON NG DNG
.oOo.

BO CO BI TP LN
XC SUT THNG K
ti 9
GVHD: NGUYN KIU DUNG
Nhm: 9
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.

Nguyn c Duy - 1410579 - L06

Bi Duy Khnh - 1411750 - L01
H Vit Long - 1412075 - L01
Ng Quang Ngha - 1414919 -L01
Trn Minh Nht - 1412783 -L01
Lng Ngc Thun - 91303997 - L01
Ng in Trung - 1414289 - L01
Trn Tri Vn -1414609 - L01
1

Tp.HCM, Ngy 05 thng 05 nm 2016

Mc lc.................................................................................... 2
Bi 1........................................................................................ 3
1. Thc hin phng php phn t d liu (A).............................................3
2. V th phn phi tn s v a gic tn s (A).......................................5
3. Tnh cc c trng mu v c lng gi tr trung bnh ca
du hiu quan st vitin cy 95% (A)...................................................7
4. Trnh by d liu nh tnh (B) dng phn loi bng cc th.................9
Bi 2........................................................................................ 12
Bi 3........................................................................................ 16
Bi 4........................................................................................ 21
Bi 5........................................................................................ 26
1. Tm h s tng quan gia X,Y................................................................27
2. Quan h gia X,Y c c coi nh quan h tuyn tnh hay khng? Nu
c, hy c lng ng hi quy tuyn tnh Y theo X.............................28
3. Tm h s xc nh

R2

...............................................................................31

Bi 1:
Tm mt d liu nh lng (A) v mt d liu nh tnh (B) thch hp, s dng cc d liu
cho cc yu cu sau:
1) Thc hin phng php phn t d liu (A).
2) V th phn phi tn s v a gic tn s (A).
3) Tnh cc c trng mu v c lng gi tr trung bnh ca du hiu quan st vi
2

tin cy 96% (A).

4) Trnh by d liu nh tnh (B) dng phn loi bng cc th.
Bi lm:
_ Dng bi: Thng k m t.
_ D liu (A): Kho st s testcase(testcase: cc trng hp kim tra code ca sinh vin trong
bi tp) ng ca 40 sinh vin khoa my tnh khi hc K thut lp trnh ta c bng s liu:

_ D liu (B): Phn ngnh sinh vin khoa My tinh K14 trng i hc Bch Khoa thnh ph H
Ch Minh.

1) Thc hin phng php phn t d liu A:

_ Nhp d liu (A) vo Excel:

+ Xc nh s t cn chia: k = (2 x n) 3
Chn A6 nhp vo biu thc =(2*Count(A1:J4))^(1/3)
3

Kt qu 4.31
Chn k = 4
+ Xc nh tr s khong cch h theo cng thc: h =

( Xmax Xmin)
k

Chn A7 nhp vo biu thc =(Max(A1:J4)-Min(A1:J4))/4

Kt qu 20
Chn h = 20
+ Ta xc nh c cc cn trn v cn di cc t ln lt l:
. T 1: 12 32
. T 2: 32 52
. T 3: 52 72
. T 4: 72 92
Nhp vo cc t A9 n A13 ln lt cc gi tr:

Chn chc nng Data/ Data Analysis/Histogram.

+ Input Range: a ch tuyt i cha d liu.
+ Bin Range: a ch cha bng phn nhm.
+ Output options: v tr xut kt qu.
+ Confidence Level for Mean: tin cy cho trung bnh.
+ Chn Cumulative Percentage tnh tn sut tch ly nu khng Excel ch
tnh tn s.

Kt qu( chnh li cc tn min):

2) V th phn phi tn s v a gic tn s (A):

_ V th phn phi tn s:
+ Qut chn bng tn s B2:B5
+ Dng chc nng Insert Column Chart trn menu Insert.

Kt qu sau khi chnh sa:

_ V a gic tn s:
+ S dng bng phn phi tn s ca d liu (A):
+ Thm gi tr 0 vo u v cui bng phn phi tn s:

+ Qut chn B2:B7, dng chc nng Insert Line Chart trn menu Insert

Kt qu sau chnh sa

3) Tnh cc c trng mu v c lng gi tr trung bnh ca du hiu quan st vi

tin cy 95% (A).
_ Nhp d liu vo bng tnh:

_ Chn chc nng Data/Data Analysis/Descriptive Statistics.

+ Input Range: a ch tuyt i cha d liu.
+ Output options: v tr xut kt qu.
+ Confidence Level for Mean: tin cy cho trung bnh.

Kt qu nhn c:

4) Trnh by d liu nh tnh (B) dng phn loi bng cc th.

_ Nhp d liu vo bng tnh:
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_ Tnh t l sinh vin cho cc ngnh:

Nhp vo C3: =B3/$B$10, copy cho cc cn li.

_ V biu ng th hin s lng sinh vin cc chuyn ngnh.

+ Qut chn ct S sinh vin (B3:B9)
+ Dng chc nng Insert /Insert Column Chart/2-D Column trn menu Insert.

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Kt qu thu c:

_ V biu trn th hin t l sinh vin cc chuyn ngnh.

+ Qut chn ct S sinh vin (C3:C9)
+ Dng chc nng Insert/Insert Pie/2-D Pie trn menu Insert

Kt qu thu c:
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Bi 2:
Hai my cng gia cng mt loi chi tit. kim tra xem 2 my ny c cng
chnh xc nh nhau hay khng, ngi ta ly ngu nhin t mi my 7 chi
tit, em o v thu c kt qu sau (n v mm):
My A
137
138
135
140
138
137
139
My B
142
135
140
138
136
138
141
C th cho rng 2 my c chnh xc nh nhau hay khng, vi mc ngha
2%? Gi thit rng kch thc chi tit c phn phi chun.
Bi lm:
Dng bi: Kim nh githuyt cho phng sai hai tng th.

Cng c: F-Test Two-Sample for Variances

C s l thuyt: Khi cn kim nh hai tng thc mc ng

u nhnhau hay khng chng ta dng phng php kim nh
phng sai ca hai tng th c lp da trn mt i lng F
nh sau:

F
Trong :

s12
s22

S1 l phng sai ca mu th nht, mu ny c c n1

S2 l phng sai ca mu th hai, mu ny c c n2.
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- Thng thng xc nh mu no l mu th nht v mu no l

mu th hai ta lm nh sau, trong khi tnh i lng F th gi tr phng sai ln
hn s c
t t s,v nh vy mu tng ng vi phng sai l mu
thnht.
- Gi thit t ra l kim nh hai bn:
H

12 22

12 22

vH1:

- Nu t s F rt ln hoc rt nh ta c th suy din bng hai phng sai

tng th kh m bng nhau, ngc li nu t s ny gn n 1 ta s c bng
chng ng h gi thuyt HoNu tng th ly mu c gi nh c phn phi
bnh thng th t l F c phn phi xc sut gi tn l phn phi Fisher. Cc
gi tr ti hn ca phn phi F ph thuc v hai gi tr bc t do, bc t do t
s (d1=n1-1 gn lin vi mu th nht v bc t do mu s gn lin vi mu
th hai (d2=n2-1)
Quy tc thc s bc b o vi kim nh hai bn khi d1=n1-1 v d2=n2-1
mc ngha l: gi thit 0 b bc b nu gi tr kim nh F ln hn gi tr ti
hn trn FU=Fdf1;df2;/2
ca phn phi F hoc b hn gi tr ti hn di
FL=Fdf1;df2;/2 tc l Ftt<Fdf1;df2;-/2 hoc Ftt>Fdf1;df2;/2
-

Nu chng ta kim nh bn phi:

H

Quy tc bc b o l khi

12 22
0

12 22

vH1:

Ftt>FU(n1-1;n2-1;)

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Gi tr thng k:

Gi thit:

H0 : 2 1

. Phn phi Fischer:

2 2

Y1=N1 -1

H 1 : 2 1

>

2
2

Y2=N2 -1

Bin lun:

)100%.

Nu F <F(Y1 ;Y2) Chp nhn gi thuyt Ho vi xc xut

Nhp d liu vo bng tnh:

Vo Data/ Data Analysis/ F-Test Two-Sample for Variances.

14

(1-

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Chn cc mc nh hnh:
+ Input: a ch tuyt i cha d liu tng ng ca mu
1 v 2.
+ Output options: v tr xut kt qu.
+ Apha:mc ngha (chn ti alpha)

Kt qu

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Bin lun
Gi thit:
+ Ho : 12 = 22 chnh xc chi tit ca 2 my l
ging nhau .
+ H1 : 12> 22 chnh xc chi tit ca 2 my l
khc nhau .

F=0.388489 > F0.02=0.15643 Bc b gi thuyt o , chp nhn gi thuyt H

Kt lun : chnh xc chi tit ca my l khc nhau
.

Bi 3: Theo gii thiu ca nh phn phi, mc tiu th nhin liu trung

bnh ca 4 loi xe t l nh nhau. Sau mt thi gian chy xe, ngi ta o
li trn cc qung ng nh nhau th c kt qu sau:
Loi xe

Mc tiu th nhin liu

20

21,2

18,7

19,5

20,1

22

21

II

21,2

21,2

20,4

19.6

22

21,1

20

III

21,5

21,2

21

21,5

22

20,7

IV

19,9

22

21

23

21,2

20,6

21,7

21,3

C th coi mc tiu th nhin liu ca 4 loi xe ny cn ging nhau hay

khng, vi mc ngha 4%? Tm h s xc nh R 2 ca bi ton v gii
thch ngha ca n.
Bi lm:

Dng bi: Kim nh gi tr trung bnh mt nhn t.

Phng php gii: Phn tch phng sai mt nhn t.

Cng c gii: Anova single factor.

C s l thuyt:
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Gi s nhn t A c k mc X1, X2, ,Xk vi Xj c phn phi chun

N(a,2) c mu iu tra:
X1

X2

Xk

X11

X12

X1k

X21

X22

X2k

Xn(1)1

Xn(2)2

Xn(k)k

Vi mc ngha ta kim nh gi thit:

- H0: a1=a2==ak
H1: Tn ti j1j2 sao cho aj1aj2
t:
k

n nj
j 0

- Tng quan st:

- Trung bnh mu th j (j=1,2,,k):

1
xj
nj

nj

x
j 1

ij

Tj

nj

T j xij

nj

i 1

v i

- Trung b nhchung
n
k nj
k

1 k j
T
x xij
T xij Tj
n j 1 i1
n
j 1 i 1
j 1
v i
- Tng bnh phng lch do nhn t Sum of Squares for Factor:
k

SSF n j ( x j x ) 2
j 1

Tng bnh phng lch do sai s Sum of Squares for Error

k

nj

SSE ( xij x j ) 2
j 1 i 1

- Tng bnh phng lch chung Total Sum of Squares:

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k

nj

SST ( xij x) 2
j 1 i 1

hay SST=SSF+SSE
Trung bnh bnh phng ca nhn t Mean Square for Error:
SSF
MSF
k 1

Trong , k-1 l bc t do ca nhn t.

- Trung bnh bnh phng ca sai s Mean Square for Error:
SSE
MSE
nk
F
T sF :

MSF
MSE

- Bng ANOVA
Tng bnh

Trung bnh

Ngun
Nhn t
Sai s
Tng s

Bc t do
phng
SSF
SSE
SST

k-1
n-k
n-1

T s F
bnh phng
MSF
MSE

So snh F trn vi F l thuyt tra t bng phn phi F vi k-1

bc t do t s v n-k bc t do mu s vi mc ngha , ta kt
lun:
-

Nu F > F l thuyt, ta bc b Ho.

Nu F < F l thuyt, Ho ng.
SSF

SST
2
H s xc nh R
chnh l t l hay s phn trm chim trong
tng s 100% ca ton b s sai lch ca Xij so vi gi tr trung bnh
ca chng
Thc hin bi ton:

Nhp d liu vo bng tnh.

18

MSF/MSE

19

Vo Data/ Data Analysis/Anova: Single Factor.

Chn cc th mc nh hnh:
-

Input Range: a ch tuyt i cha d liu.

Output options: v tr xut kt qu.

- Alpha: mc ngha .

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Kt qu:

Bin lun:
Gi thit:
H0: Mc tiu th nhin liu 4 loi xe l ging nhau.
H1: Mc tiu th nhin liu 4 loi xe l khc nhau.
V F = 1.284075 < F critical = 3.234466 nn ta gi thit H0 ng.

Vy mc tiu th nhin liu ca 4 loi xe l ging nhau.

Tnh h s xc nh R2:
T bng Anova: Single Factor ta tnh c h s tng quan
R2theo cng thc:
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R2

SSF
SST

Thc hin trn Excel:

- Chn a ra kt qu ca R2
- Nhp cng thc: =D53/D56
Ta thu c kt qu sau:

Vy h s xc nh R2 = 0.138309371. iu c ngha l nhn t

ni ly mu o ch nh hng 13.8% n mc tiu th nhin liu
ca cc loi xe.

Bi 4: Mt cuc iu tra x hi hc c tin hnh 5 thnh ph

A,B,C,D,E. Ngi ta yu cu nhng ngi c hi din t mc tha
mn ca mnh i vi thnh ph m h ang sng. Kt qu c cho nh
sau:
Thnh ph

A
B
C
D

Mc tha mn
Rt tha
mn

Tng i

Khng

220
130
84
156

121
207
54
95

63
75
24
43

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122

164

73

Vi mc ngha = 3%, Hy kim nh xem mc tha mn c phn b

ging nhau 5 thnh ph trn hay khng?
Bi lm :

Dng bi : kim nh gi thit v t l.

Phng php gii : p dng kim nh chi bnh phng 2
Cng c gii : hm CHITEST trn EXCEL.
C s l thuyt:

Theo thng k,kim nh chi bnh phng hay kim tra 2 (i khi c l
khi bnh phng) l mt h cc phng php kim nh gi thuyt thng k
trong thng k kim nh tun theo phn b 2 nu gi thuyt l khng
ng.Chng gm:

Kim nh chi bnh phng Pearsom

Kim nh chi bnh phng Yates
Kim nh chi bnh phng Mantel-Haenszel
.

Dng thng k kim nh thng dng nht l :

(o e) 2
e

Vi o l d liu o c, e l gi tr d on chnh xc.

Xt mt b A gm r tnh trng, A=(1, 2,..r), trong mi c th ca tp hp
chnh H c v ch c mt trong cc tnh trng (hay phm tr )i
Gi pi(i=1,2,r) l t l c th tnh trng Itrong tp hp chnh H. Khi
vecto =(1 ,2 ,r) c gi l phn b ca A trong tp hp chnh H.
Gi s (p1 ,p2,pr) l phn b ca (1, 2,.. r) trong tp hp chnh H v
(q1 ,q2,qr) l phn b ca A=(1, 2,.. r)trong tp hp chnh Y. Ta ni
(1, 2,.. r) c phn b nh nhau trong X v Y nu (p1 ,p2,pr)= (q1 ,q2,
qr)p1 =q1,pr =qr
Chng ta mun kim nh xem A=(1, 2,.. r) c cng phn s trong X v
Y hay khng da trn cc mu ngu nhin rt t X v Y.
Tng qut hn, gi s ta c k tp hp chnh H1, H2,.. Hk gi i = p1i , p2i
,pri l phn b ca A =(1, 2,.. r) trong tp hp chnh i

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Ta mun kim nh gi thuyt sau:

Ho: 1= 2= = k (Cc phn b ny l nh nhau trn cc tp hp chnh
i)
Ch rng otng ng vi h ng thc sau:
p11= p12= = p1k
p21= p22= = p2k
.
pi1= pi2= =pik
......

pr1= pr2= =prk

T mi tp hp chnh chng ta chn ra mt mu ngu nhin. Mu ngu

nhin
chn t tp hp chnh i c gi l ngu nhin th i (i = 1,2,..k).
Gi s trong mu ngu nhin th i:
C 1i c th c tnh trng 1
2ic th c tnh trng 2
..
ri c th c tnh trng r
K hiu:

n ik1 nij ; n0 j ir1 nij

Nh vy 0j l kch thc ca mu th j, cn j0 l tng s c th c tnh

trng I trong ton b k mu ang xt:
n ir1 ni 0 kj 1 n0 j

l tng s tt c cc c th ca k mu ang xt

- Nu gi thuyt o l ng ngha l:

p11 = p12= = p1k

p21= p22= = p2k
.
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pi1 = pi2= =pik= pi

.

pr1 = pr2= =prk=pr

pi^
Th cc t l chung p1 ,p2,pr c c lng bi

ni 0
n

o c lng cho xc sut mt c th c mang tnh trang j.Khi s

c th c tnh trng j trong mu th j s xp x bng:

nij^ n0 j pi^

noj nio
n

nij^ (i 1, 2,...., r ; j 1, 2,...k)

Cc s
c gi l cc tn s l thuyt(TSLT), ccs
ijc gi l cc tn s quan st (TSQS).
Ta quyt nh bc b o khi cc TSLT cch xa TSQS mt cch bt thng.
Khong cch gia TSLT v TSQS c o bng test thng k sau y:

T kf 1 ir1

(nij nij^ ) 2
nij^

(TSQS TSLT ) 2
TSLT

Ngi ta chng minh c rng nu ong v cc TSLT khng nh hn 5

th T s c phn b xp x vi (k-1)(r-1) bc t do. Thnh th min bc b
c dng
{T>c} c c tm t iu kin P{T>c} = . Vy c l phn v mc
ca phn
b 2vi (k-1)(r-1) bc t do.

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i vi th nghim c cc kt qu, so snh cc t s ca cc kt

qu ta dng
kim nh 2(chi-quared ):

2 ir1 cj 1

(nij nij^ ) 2

np j

nij^
vi

Tonghang .Tong cot

n

nij : tn s thc nghim ; ij: tn s l thuyt ca (i,j) ; r: s hng ;

c: s ct
Dng hm CHITEST (actual_range ,expected_range).
Tnh gi tr : P(X >2) = CHITEST
Nu : P(X >2) > th chp nhn ov ngc li.

Nhn xt: y l bi ton kim nh gi thuyt vt l.

Gii thuyt Ho : T l mc tha mn ca 5 thnh ph l ging
nhau
Nhp gi tr vo bng tnh

Tnh tng cc s:
+ Tng hng: Chn H78, nhp =SUM(E78:G78), ri Enter, dng con
tr ko
nt t iu khin t in t H78 n H82.
+ Tng ct: Chn E83, nhp =SUM(E78:E82), ri Enter, dng con tr
ko nt
t iu khin t E83 n G83.
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+ Tng cng: chn H83 v nhp =SUM(H78:H82).

Tnh cc tn s l thuyt: (tng hng*tng ct)/tng cng

+ 1: Chn E90: nhp =H78*$E$83/$H$83, ri Enter, dng con tr

ko nt t
iu khin t E90 n E94.
+ 2: Chn F90: nhp =H78*$F$83/$H$83, ri Enter, dng con tr
ko nt t
iu khin t F90 n F94.
+ 3: Chn G90: nhp =H78*$G$83/$H$83, ri Enter, dng con tr
ko nt t
iu khin t G90 n G94.

p dng hm s CHITEST tnh gi tr (>2)

Chn B15, nhp =CHITEST(E78:G82;E90:G94), ri Enter.

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Bin lun:

(>2) = 0,000000000000352989 < 0.03

Bc b gi thuyt Ho
Kt lun: mc tha mn 5 thnh ph trn l khng ging
nhau
Bi 5:
Tm mt d liu ngu nhin 2 chiu (X, Y) c kch thc n >10 s dng m
hnh hi quy tuyn tnh n. Thc hin cc yu cu:
1) Tm h s tng quan gia X,Y.
2) Quan h gia X,Y c c coi nh quan h tuyn tnh hay khng? Nu c, hy c lng
ng hi quy tuyn tnh Y theo X.
3) Tm sai s chun ca c lng.
Bi lm:
Bng s liu v thi gian chy chng trnh ca sinh vin khoa My tnh khi hc mn
H iu hnh tng ng vi lng d liu l cc cu lnh(dng code)

1) Tm h s tng quan gia X v Y:

_ C s l thuyt:
H s tng quan:
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2

xi 2( xi)
n
R=

yi 2( yi)
n
xiyi xi yi
[][ ]

+ Nu R > 0 th X,Y tng quan thun.

+ Nu R < 0 th X,Y tng quan nghch.
+ Nu R = 0 th X,Y khng tng quan.
+ Nu |R|=1 th X,Y c quan h hm bc nht.
+ Nu |R|1 th X, Y c tng quan cht (tng quan mnh).
+ Nu |R|0 th X, Y c tng quan khng cht (tng quan yu).

_ Thc hin trn Excel:

+ Nhp s liu vo bng tnh:

Chn chc nng Data/Data Analysis/Correlation.

Kt qu:

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_ Ta c h s tng quan l R = 0.98926063062 --> 1 chng t gia thi gian chy chng
trnh v s lng lnh c tng quan cht (tng quan mnh).
2) Quan h gia X,Y c c coi nh quan h tuyn tnh hay khng? Nu c,
hy c lng ng hi quy tuyn tnh Y theo X.
_ C s l thuyt:
Gi thit Ho: X v Y khng c tng quan tuyn tnh
T=

r n2

1n2

_ Thc hin trn Excel:

+ Tnh T : chn B5 v nhp biu thc =B3*SQRT(12-2)/SQRT(1-B3^2).
+ Tnh c: chn B6 v nhp biu thc =TINV(0.05,10) (c l phn v mc /2=0.025
ca phn b Student vi n-2=10 bc t do).

V |T| > c nn bc b gi thit H0.

Vy: X v Y c tng quan tuyn tnh.
*c lng ng hi quy tuyn tnh Y theo X.
_ C s l thuyt:
Phng trnh hi quy tuyn tnh
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yx = a + bx ,

Sy
a = r Sx

b = y - ax

Kim nh h s a, b:
+ Gi thit H0: H s hi quy khng c ngha (=0).
+

H1: H s hi quy c ngha (0).

+ Trc nghim t < t ,n-2: chp nhn H0

Kim nh phng trnh hi quy:
+ Gi thit H0: Phng trnh hi quy tuyn tnh khng thch hp.
H1: Phng trnh hi quy tuyn tnh thch hp.
+ Trc nghim F < F ,1,n-2: chp nhn H0

_ Thc hin trn Excel:

+ Nhp s liu vo bng tnh:

+ Dng chc nng Data/Data Analysis/Regression

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Kt qu:

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Bin lun:
_ Phng trnh hi quy: yx = 196.6187 + 10.7616x
_ H s hi quy: 0.0710 > 0.05 => H s t do c ngha.
1.105xE-09< 0.05 => H s ca x khng c ngha.
=> Phng trnh hi quy tuyn tnh ny khng thch hp v 0.002198 < 0.05

3) Tm sai s chun ca c lng:

Dng kt qu t bng SUMMARY OUTPUT t cu trn ta xc nh c sai
schun ca c lng:
- i vi bin t do: SE = 97.3596
- i vi bin X: SE = 0.5028

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