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Y/E March (Rs cr) 1QFY11 1QFY10 % chg (yoy) 4QFY10 % chg (qoq) Investment Period 12 Months
Net sales 1,106 1,110 0.3 1,890 (41.5)
Operating profit 100.8 99.6 1.2 198.4 (49.2) Stock Info
Net profit 28.1 35.3 (20.4) 85.3 (67.0) Sector Infrastructure
Source: Company, Angel Research Market Cap (Rs cr) 4,551
IVRCL Infrastructure (IVRCL) reported flat yoy top-line performance for Beta 1.4
1QFY2011, which was below our and street estimates. The company lost around 52 Week High / Low 212/144.1
Rs250cr in revenue for the quarter on account of three projects. Management has
Avg. Daily Volume 341,421
maintained its guidance of Rs6,700cr–Rs7,100cr, which implies growth run rate
for the next three quarters at ~30%, even at the lower end of the guidance, which Face Value (Rs) 2
we believe is an uphill task. Therefore, we prune our estimates. However, given BSE Sensex 18,220
the company’s past excellent track record and robust order book rendering
revenue visibility, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock. Nifty 5,461
Reuters Code IVRC.BO
Top line below estimates, OPM in line with expectations: IVRCL reported a flat
Bloomberg Code IVRC@IN
top-line performance at Rs1,106cr. On the operating front, the company posted
margin of 9.1%, a tad above our estimates of 8.6%. Below-estimate top-line
performance, cascaded at the bottom-line level, which came in at mere Rs28.1cr.
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Outlook and valuation: IVRCL has a robust order book of Rs23,275cr (4.3x Promoters 9.6
FY2010 revenue), which lends revenue visibility. Robust order booking over the MF / Banks / Indian Fls 33.4
last few quarters ensures IVRCL’s dependence on AP orders has come down FII / NRIs / OCBs 55.8
significantly (from 28% to current 17%). IVRCL’s performance is disappointing on Indian Public / Others 10.8
the execution front, but we expect execution to pick up as the issues are temporary
in nature. We have valued IVRCL on an SOTP basis. The company’s core
construction business is valued at a P/E of 14x FY2012E EPS of Rs11.6 Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
(Rs162/share), while its stake in subsidiaries IVR Prime (Rs37/share) and
Sensex 5.1 21.4 22.5
Hindustan Dorr-Oliver (Rs17/share) has been valued on an Mcap basis, post
IVRCL (1.2) 11.1 (10.5)
assigning 20% holding company discount. Therefore, on the back of IVRCL’s
excellent execution track record, robust order book to sales ratio and comfortable
valuations, we maintain Buy on the stock with a Target Price of Rs216.
IVRCL posted a flat top-line performance at Rs1,106cr for 1QFY2011, which was
19.1% below our expectations and 21% below the street’s expectations. The company
lost around Rs250cr in revenue for the quarter on account of execution-related issues in
the MP and AP projects and the IOC tankage project.
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
PAT (Rs cr, LHS) PATM (%, RHS)
Investment arguments
Robust order book renders strong revenue visibility: IVRCL has a robust order book
of Rs23,275cr (4.3x FY2010 revenue), which lends revenue visibility. In-house
projects form around Rs5,500cr of the company’s overall order book. Robust order
booking over the last few quarters ensures that the company’s dependence on AP
orders has come down significantly (from 28% to current 17%). IVRCL had issues
on the execution front due to its high AP exposure, but given the fact that the issues
are resolving, we expect the company to be back on its growth trajectory.
3 .6
3 6 .5
5 1 .5
6 .7
1 .7
Irrigation Buildings Power Transportation Oil & Gas
Value unlocking at IVRAH, the next trigger: IVRCL Assets Holding (IVRAH) started
tolling Jalandhar-Amritsar road in May 2010. The Chennai water project also
started in August 2010. In FY2011, all of the company’s old BOT projects would
start generating revenue to fund its future investments. Management has given
guidance of increased revenue of Rs1.4cr/day from these BOT projects once they
are fully operational. IVRAH would be requiring equity infusion of
Rs1,300cr–1,400cr over the next three years and is planning to raise money. We
believe value unlocking at the subsidiary level will act as a near-term catalyst for
IVRCL’s growth.
Key Ratios
Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS) 32.5 21.8 20.4 21.7 18.4 14.7
P/CEPS 28.2 18.9 16.9 17.3 14.6 11.9
P/BV 3.5 2.9 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.9
Dividend yield (%) 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0
EV/Sales 2.1 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9
EV/EBITDA 18.8 15.2 14.0 11.9 11.3 9.6
EV / Total Assets 2.6 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4
Per Share Data (Rs)
EPS (Basic) 5.2 7.8 8.4 7.8 9.2 11.6
EPS (fully diluted) 5.2 7.8 8.4 7.8 9.2 11.6
Cash EPS 6.0 9.0 10.1 9.9 11.7 14.3
DPS 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7
Book Value 48.8 59.5 67.1 70.2 78.6 89.4
DuPont Analysis
EBIT margin 10.1 9.0 7.7 8.7 8.3 8.5
Tax retention ratio 76.4 73.8 82.5 21.5 67.0 66.0
Asset turnover (x) 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.7
ROIC (Post-tax) 9.8 11.7 11.0 3.0 9.1 9.5
Cost of Debt (Post
7.7 4.3 8.7 2.1 5.8 5.8
Tax)
Leverage (x) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1
Operating ROE 10.3 14.6 12.4 3.8 12.2 13.6
Returns (%)
ROACE (Pre-tax) 12.8 14.4 12.7 13.6 13.0 13.9
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 12.8 15.8 13.3 14.1 13.5 14.5
ROE 10.7 14.4 13.2 11.4 12.4 13.8
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover
9.2 10.8 9.0 7.9 8.3 8.9
(Gross Block)
Inventory / Sales
13 14 15 20 25 30
(days)
Receivables (days) 97 64 67 84 87 87
Payables (days) 130 99 96 118 113 113
Working capital
173 146 149 159 165 163
cycle (ex-cash) (days)
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1
Net debt to EBITDA 1.3 2.5 3.1 3.3 3.7 3.6
Interest Coverage
4.3 6.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9
(EBIT / Interest)
Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com
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