Professional Documents
Culture Documents
David de Wetter
Ilene Gochman, Ph.D.
Rich Luss
Rick Sherwood
© 2010 Towers Watson. All rights reserved.
Executive Summary
z Towers Watson conducted comprehensive, robust research (using proven data
collection and analysis techniques) on data from various sources and types of
surveys across North America
z Response rate to the surveys was good, which ensures the findings are reliable at a
95% level of confidence
z Towers Watson calculated a vitality index for each church based on indicators
of vitality identified by the Steering Committee
z Calculation was done for churches where data were available (n=32,228)
z Also calculated three sub-factors of vitality – attendance, growth and engagement
z Based on vitality index, Towers Watson found that all kinds of UMC churches
are vital – small, large, across different geographies, and church setting (e.g.,
urban, rural)
z Towers Watson conducted regression analyses to identify drivers of the vitality
index and four key drivers of vitality stand out – crystal clear findings that are
actionable
z The four key drivers of vitality are fairly consistent across different types of
churches
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Four key areas are the drivers of vitality
Small Groups
& Programs
• Number of Groups
• Children & Youth
Programs
Worship Service
Lay Leadership Indicators • Mix of traditional
• Effectiveness
• Specific programs
of Vitality and contemporary
• Specific aspects
and involvement
Pastor
• Excellence in key
attributes
• Appointment length
Length of appointment
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Project Methodology
Guiding
GuidingPrinciples:
Principles:Inclusive,
Inclusive,Practical,
Practical,Fact-based
Fact-basedInsight
Insightand
andDecisions
Decisions
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Research model
What are the factors What are the factors
What indicates that the
that that directly
desired state has been
indirectly influence impact the desired
achieved?
the desired state? state? What is the
desired state?
Research focused on
identifying the key drivers
of the Indicators of
Church Vitality
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Research model (continued)
Research
Methodology
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Testing hypotheses
Survey Type and Number of Questions
z 9 questions measuring potential drivers such as:
Bishop Survey z Appointment process
z Conference programs focused on vitality
z 5 questions measuring potential drivers such as:
District z Time allocation
Superintendent z Managing performance of Pastors
Survey z 14 questions measuring a sample of their Pastors on aspects of
leadership
z 22 questions measuring potential drivers such as:
z Personal demographics (age, length in current appointment, etc.)
Pastor Survey z Laity leadership
z 9 questions measuring aspects of different types of worship
services
z 54 questions measuring potential drivers such as:
z Church programs offered and attendance in those programs
Church Survey z Laity leadership
z Congregation
z Worship
SPRC Survey z 15 questions measuring their Pastor on aspects of leadership
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Testing hypotheses (continued)
District
Superintendent All District Superintendents – North America
Survey
Pastor Survey
SPRC Survey
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Survey administration
z Email invitations were sent on May 11, 2010
z Bishop invitation came from the Council of Bishops office
z District Superintendent, Pastor, Church, SPRC invitations came directly from
Towers Watson
z Reminder emails were sent to boost participation
z Survey was open for two and a half weeks to ensure that everyone had
the opportunity to participate
z Good response rate across four of the five surveys
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Survey response rates
Survey
Response
(All North America) # Invited # Responding Rate
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Survey Representativeness
Survey
Response
(All North America) Rate Comment
TW tied Pastor and Church data to
Bishop Survey 53% conferences where the Bishop responded
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Why these findings can be trusted
z In a research study like this, we look at two factors
z Representative – do the findings apply across all of the population? YES
z Reliability – would the findings be replicated if we did the study again? YES
The findings apply across the whole North American UMC population
and would be replicated if the study were done again.
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Analysis: Vitality index
Total church population vs. sample vs. respondents
Conclusion:
Conclusion:Respondent
Respondentpopulation
populationisisrepresentative
representativeof
ofboth
bothSample
Sampleand
andTotal
Total
Population
Populationfor
forNorth
NorthAmerica
America
32% 29%
36%
49%
50% 52%
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Data Analysis
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Vitality index
z Towers Watson used a statistical technique called factor analysis to
group the Indicators of Vitality into three factors as shown below
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Vitality index (continued)
z A score was calculated for each church in North America where data
were available (n= 32,228) for each of the three factors
z Churches were segmented into three groups based on the distribution
of their scores
Low High
Middle 50%
Bottom 25% Top 25%
Church C
Church A Church D Church G
Church B Church E Church H
Church F
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Vitality Index (continued)
z A single index was calculated for each church by adding up the
numeric scores on each of the three factors
A 3 3 3 9
B 3 2 p
l e 1 6
a2 m
C 2 Ex 2 6
D 1 1 1 3
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Vitality Index (continued)
z To facilitate the analysis, the vitality index was collapsed into three
categories: High Vitality, Medium Vitality, and Low Vitality
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Vitality index by church size
z While larger churches are more likely to be vital than smaller churches
there are many high vital churches across all church sizes
12%
18%
n=596
n=871
Large Churches (AWA of 350 or more)
41%
n=2,080
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Calculating the key drivers of vitality
z Statistical technique used to identify the impact of variables on a
desired outcome
z Direction - Does this variable have a positive or negative impact on the
desired outcome?
z Magnitude – How much impact does this variable have on the desired
outcome?
z Commonly used statistical technique in consumer, employee and
political research to help identify and prioritize actions that will have the
greatest impact on a desired outcome
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Calculating the key drivers of vitality (continued)
z Regression analysis quantified the relationship between the variables in
each hypotheses and the Indicators of Vitality
z Some factors had a positive impact
z Some factors had a negative impact
z Some factors had no significant impact
z Regressions showed also that the variables in each hypothesis
impacted the factors of vitality (Attendance, Growth, Engagement) in
different ways
z Throughout the findings, we will highlight when the hypotheses had an
impact on the Vitality Index and when the hypotheses had an impact on
specific factors of vitality
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Findings
19% 14%
33%
20% 46%
21%
# of Groups in a # of Groups in a
High Vital Church Low Vital Church % Difference
Larger Churches
37.5 22.5 66%
(AWA of 350 or more)
Medium Size Churches
12.1 9.8 23%
(AWA between 100 and 349)
Small churches
5.1 4.5 12%
(AWA between 35 and 99)
Very Small churches
2.9 2.5 16%
(AWA less than 35)
# of Programs in a # of Programs in a
High Vital Church Low Vital Church % Difference
Larger Churches
16.9 6.8 149%
(AWA of 350 or more)
Medium Size Churches
6.7 4.7 42%
(AWA between 100 and 349)
Small churches
3.4 2.5 34%
(AWA between 35 and 99)
Very Small churches
2.2 1.4 59%
(AWA less than 35)
z Regardless of size, more vital churches have more programs for youth
(age 12 -18)
# of Programs in a # of Programs in a
High Vital Church Low Vital Church % Difference
Larger Churches
8.7 4.7 83%
(AWA of 350 or more)
Medium Size Churches
3.5 2.4 45%
(AWA between 100 and 349)
Small churches
1.8 1.2 43%
(AWA between 35 and 99)
Very Small churches
1.3 0.7 75%
(AWA less than 35)
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Lay leadership
Building effective lay leadership
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Lay leadership
Building effective lay leadership
60%
52% 53%
50%
Percent Favorable on Lay Leader
40%
38%
Effectiveness
30%
21%
20%
10%
0%
Less than 5% 6-25% 26% -50% Over 50%
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Lay leadership
Building effective lay leadership
Note: Numbers shown represent the % of churches that are high vital when the pastor was rated effective
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Worship service
Mix of contemporary and traditional
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Worship service
Mix of contemporary and traditional by church size
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Traditional worship service
Basis for preaching
z Preaching in traditional worship services at high vital churches tends to be
more topical and less based on the lectionary than in churches with relatively
low vitality
50% 22%
37% 65%
Lectionary
Topical
Blended
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Worship service
Inspirational Preaching
Note: Numbers shown represent the % of churches that are high vital when the pastor was rated effective
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Contemporary worship service
Type of worship music
z High vital churches are more likely to use contemporary music in their
contemporary services
36%
39%
56%
57%
Traditional
Blended
Contemporary
Global
Other
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Contemporary worship service
Use of multi-media
z High vital churches are more likely to use multi-media in their contemporary
services
34%
66%
86% Yes
No
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Worship service
z Several factors around the worship service did NOT have a significant
impact on vitality
z Use of experiential activities (e.g., prayer station, art, straw polls) during the
service
z Length of sermon
z Make-up of preaching in Contemporary worship services
z Type of music and use of multimedia in Traditional worship services
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Pastor
Leadership effectiveness
z Over 1,200 Pastors, from all church sizes across North America, were
assessed on 14 leadership attributes
z Working in partnership with others (e.g., lay leaders, congregation) to accomplish goals
z Recognizing, addressing, and managing discord in a fair and positive manner
z Encouraging and empowering others to take ownership
z Focusing on developing, coaching and mentoring to enable Laity leadership to improve
performance
z Inspiring passion and enthusiasm in others for spiritual development, discipleship, and outreach
z Developing personal knowledge, skills, and abilities to continuously improve and grow oneself
z Defining and articulates a future vision for the local church
z Inspiring confidence and trust through words and deeds
z Demonstrating effective management of the local church (e.g., financial, operational, staff)
z Influencing the actions and behaviors of others to accomplish changes in the local church
z Recognizing, understanding, and empathizing with the feelings and needs of others and responds
accordingly
z Propelling the local church to set and achieve significant goals through effective leadership
z Understanding and leading in the context in which they serve
z Inspiring the congregation through preaching
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Pastor
Leadership effectiveness (continued)
Note: Numbers shown represent the % of churches that are high vital when the pastor was rated effective
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Pastor
Leadership effectiveness (continued)
z The four key leadership attributes have stronger impact on some of the
factors of vitality than others
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Pastor
Length of appointment
40%
36%
35%
Percent of High Vital Churches
30%
25%
25% 21%
19%
20%
14%
15%
11%
10%
5%
0%
1 yr (n=536) 2 yrs (n=545) 3-4 yrs (n=857) 5-6 yrs (n=480) 7-10 yrs (n=495) over 10 yrs (n=242)
NOTE: Patterns and findings are consistent when Pastors who had several short-term appointments are included or removed from analysis
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Pastor
Length of appointment (continued)
50%
Percent of High Vital Churches
46%
45% 41%
40% 36% 36%
35% 35%
31% 32%
29% 30% 29%
30%
25% 25% 24%
25% 23%
21%
20% 17% 18%
17%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Attendance Factor Growth Factor Engagement Factor
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Pastor
z Several factors around the Pastor did NOT have a significant impact on
vitality
z Graduating from seminary or not
z Years engaged in pastoral ministry
z Whether pastoral ministry is first or second career
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Four key areas are the drivers of vitality
Small Groups
& Programs
• Number of Groups
• Children & Youth
Programs
Worship Service
Lay Leadership Indicators • Mix of traditional
• Effectiveness
• Specific programs
of Vitality and contemporary
• Specific aspects
and involvement
Pastor
• Excellence in key
attributes
• Appointment length
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Driving different factors of vitality
Overall Attendance Growth Engagement
Driver
Vitality Factor Factor Factor
Small Groups
Number of small groups
Number of programs for children
Number of programs for youth
Lay Leadership
Effectiveness of lay leadership
Lay leadership demonstrating vital personal faith
Rotating lay leadership
% of attendees serving as leaders in past 5 years
Worship Service
Mix of Traditional and Contemporary service
Using more topical preaching in Traditional service
Using more contemporary music in Contemporary service
Using more multi-media in Contemporary service
Pastor
Focusing on developing, coaching and mentoring to enable
laity leadership to improve performance
Influencing the actions and behaviors of others to
accomplish changes in the local church
Propelling the local church to set and achieve significant
goals through effective leadership
Inspiring the congregation through preaching
Length of appointment
Denotes the driver has a positive impact on the factor of vitality Note: Small groups include study, fellowship, and service
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Driving vitality in different types of churches
The
Thefour
fourkey
keydrivers
driversof
ofthe
theindicators
indicatorsof
ofvitality
vitality(small
(smallgroups,
groups,lay
lay
leadership,
leadership,worship
worshipservice,
service,and
andthe
thepastor)
pastor)are
areconsistent
consistentregardless
regardless
church
churchsize,
size,predominant
predominantethnicity,
ethnicity,and
andjurisdiction
jurisdiction
In addition to the four key drivers of the indicators of vitality, some nuances by
church size and jurisdiction include
z Nuances by size of church include:
— For large churches (AWA of 350 or more), being representative of the community around
them and having pastors who spend more time on preaching, planning and leading worship
has a strong relationship with vitality
z Nuances by jurisdiction include:
— In the South Central and South Eastern jurisdictions, the length of tenure of the clergy as
pastors has a strong relationship with vitality
— In the North Eastern jurisdiction, pastors spending more time on personal devotion and
worship has a strong relationship with vitality
— In the Western jurisdiction, churches that are representative of the community around them
and have a pastor that leads in the context of the community have a higher association with
vitality
z No variations by predominant ethnicity
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Four key areas are the drivers of vitality
Small Groups
& Programs
• Number of Groups
• Children & Youth
Programs
Worship Service
Lay Leadership Indicators • Mix of traditional
• Effectiveness
• Specific programs
of Vitality and contemporary
• Specific aspects
and involvement
Pastor
• Excellence in key
attributes
• Appointment length
David de Wetter
Ilene Gochman, Ph.D.
Rich Luss
Rick Sherwood
© 2010 Towers Watson. All rights reserved.