Silver July Futures: 120 min.

~ The Bearish Count

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Interestingly, Silver has remained within our key support and resistance levels for the last three weeks. The previous slide (from May 30th) highlighted the bullish count for a move to the mid-40s. While that count is still possible, it seems more likely, though, that were seeing the kind of development highlighted below, which would be bearish. If a triangle -b- has concluded, then Silver should witness a pronounced sell-off over the next few weeks. The bulls MUST get this market back above $37.86 to regain any sort of upper hand. A break below $34.30, our support level for the last few weeks, would look ominous. Day Traders who want to short this market should consider $36.54 as first level of resistance. That would be 61.8% of the move from 37.86 to 34.40

REPRINTED from 6/19/2011

(a)

(c)

-b(e)
37.86

(d)

34.40

-a-

(b)

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Silver SEP Futures: 240 min. ~ The Bullish Count

A month ago, when we last looked at Silver, it seemed to be forming a bearish triangle and the bias was to attempt a short on a triangle conclusion. That concept was scrapped when the market never really impulsed lower out of a triangle and then broke back above our resistance points. At this point, Im left with the count below. It suggests were in the middle of (c) wave higher that has further to go. Ive labeled the -a- wave down an impulse, which means this market should find stiff resistance into $43.00

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(2)

(c)
[5]?

(1) (4) (a)

[c]

This looks like a Channeling Stocks.dom Commercial [3]?

[.b]

[x] [a]
[.a] [.b]

[1]

[4]?

[x] [w]
[.a]

[b]

[2] [y] [z]

(3) (5)

(b)

-a-

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Silver SEP Futures: 120 min. ~ Weekly Support and Resistance

Despite whats been a channeling chopfest, it looks like there might be some short term trading opportunities in Silver. The $36.75 level looks like a good level of support now. So, if we can get a dip that gets close to that level, then that would be a decent risk/reward as the market does look like it wants to break above $39.50 eventually. If the market does eventually rally to the $43 level, it will represent a decent opportunity to initiate shorts or sell out of length.
[3]?

[1]

[2]

(b)

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gold - Weekly Continuation (Log Scale)

REPRINTED from 6/19/2011

$1,425/oz

This ridiculously well-defined trend channel continues to remain intact. Longer term bulls should remain vigilant of the key support point at $1,425 or any break of the uptrend. Though, $1,425 should be considered as more important than the trend line--its a level which really stands out on this chart.

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gold - Weekly Continuation (Log Scale)

The market bounced when it whiffed the lower boundary of this trend channel.

This channel should become a case example of the old axiom The Trend is Your Friend. Gold has been a very popular and crowded trade for some time, but this very channel has kept me from even considering a short. It has been tremendously powerful and resilient. However, there is something a little peculiar about the recent wave pattern..

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gold Daily: Weekly Support

The wave development from the previous high at $1,577 was a bit strange. It doesnt easily fit any known wave patterns. Therefore, Im left with the following setup. It looks like were in an expanded (irregular) -b- wave. The implications are that Gold will meet good resistance between $1600-$1612 before suffering a strong -c- wave down. As mentioned on the previous slide, shorting Gold has NOT been rewarding or even conceivable. However, the shorter Term Gold bulls should be a little concerned with the current market position. -b-? $1564 and $1541 should be considered first and second levels of support for the next several trading days.

(c)

$1577

(a)

(x)

(y)

(b)

-a(w)
[c]

-c-?

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS ADDITIONAL INTRA-WEEK AND INTRADAY DISCUSSION ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND TRADING AT TRADERS-ANONYMOUS.BLOGSPOT.COM

Wave Symbology "I" or "A" I or A <I>or <A> -I- or -A(I) or (A) "1 or "a" 1 or a -1- or -a(1) or (a) [1] or [a] [.1] or [.a] = Grand Supercycle = Supercycle = Cycle = Primary = Intermediate = Minor = Minute = Minuette = Sub-minuette = Micro = Sub-Micro

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This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. This report is technical commentary only. The author is NOT representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. This merely reflects the authors interpretation of technical analysis. The author may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information contained in this commentary is taken from sources the author believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the author as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone. Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading: Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.