Extreme wind speed predictions using the Method of Independent Storms (MIS)

VindKraftNet: Extreme winds meeting at Ris DTU 2nd September 2009 Bob Hodgetts

What is an MIS analysis?

In simple terms, a Gumbel analysis from time series data Key input: Seven years of ten-minute or hourly time series data Basics of the method: Identify the maximum wind speeds recorded; Ensure each maximum is from an independent storm; Conduct a Gumbel analysis of the extreme wind speeds Result: A predicted extreme wind speed trend

Indentify independent storms

Independent storms (more than 48 hours apart)
40 35 30

Mean wind speed [m/s]

25 20 15 10 5 0
01/01/2009 03/01/2009 05/01/2009 07/01/2009 09/01/2009 11/01/2009 13/01/2009 15/01/2009

Storm threshold

Example result

Assumes extreme events are from the same wind mechanism

Typical MIS prediction

2 years of on site wind measurements Correlate to reference station with 7+ years consistent data Predict long-term time series at site mast Run a MIS or similar model to predict extreme wind speed, usually a ten-minute of hourly value Analyse site gust ratio to factor ten-minute or hourly extreme to 3 second gust value

Differences in MCP review compared to energy assessments Pro: Does the quality of the correlation need to be as good? Con: Need 7+ years of time series data which can be expensive

MIS predictions at turbines

Extreme wind speeds predicted at masts Long-term time series synthesised at turbines from mast using directional speed-ups determined in wind flow model MIS model run for each turbine Gust ratios predicted to turbines
(based on assumption of constant standard deviation of wind speed)

Uncertainties will always be significant Uncertainty in general MIS method Correlation to reference data Wind flow model

Indication of uncertainty in MIS

35%
Standard Deviation of different results

Seven long-term reference stations considered Periods of consistent data from 11 to 20 years Each station time series cut-up into lots of shorter periods and run through MIS prediction Results are standard deviations of all results obtained about the mean result for each station

30% 25% 20%

Average line
15% 10% 5% 0% 1 year 2 years 3 years 4 years 5 years 6 years 7 years Period of data used for prediction

Thank you

Any questions after today then please get in touch: bob.hodgetts@garradhassan.com